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How Important Are 5 Star QB's to Ultimate Success?

Baconbeard

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Nov 29, 2004
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In the playoff era starting in 2014, there have been 52 QB's lead a QB to the CFP.

Using Rivals rankings

Of those 52 QB's, the star ratings break out like this:

5 Star - 14
4 Star - 19
3 Star - 14
2 Star - 5

The records in CFP games for those break out like this:

5 Star - 11-12 WP% of 47.83%
4 Star - 12-16 WP% of 42.86%
3 Star - 14-10 WP% of 58.33%
2 Star - 4-3 WP% of 57.14%

As far as championships go, the numbers break out like this:

5 Star - 2 (Deshaun Watson, Trevor Lawrence)
4 Star - 3 (Jalen Hurts/Tua Tagovailoa, Mac Jones, JJ McCarthy)
3 Star - 4 (Cardale Jones, Jake Coker, Joe Burrow, Will Howard)
2 Star - 2 (Stetson Bennett twice)

If you go back to the 2006 recruiting class, only Five 5 star QB's have raised the trophy

Tim Tebow
Cam Newton
Jameis Winston
Deshaun Watson
Trevor Lawrence

I'd say we are about due for a 5 star QB to hit big.
 
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