With the emergence and dominance of the spread-passing game in the last 15 years inside Texas at the high school ranks, the state of football in the Lone Star State has been in a constant state of evolution.
Football in this state isn't the same in 2017 as it was in 2002. Or 2007. Or 2012.
Proof of the changes that have taken place is the fact that for the better part of an entire generation, elite-level quarterback play was so scarce that a guy like Billy Joe Tolliver was the class of the quarterback ranks from this state. A couple of decades later, Texas has become the state that everyone in the country looks to dip into for its quarterback answers.
Yet, the cause and effect of these changes inside the style of play that dominates the Texas preps football extends beyond the improvement at the quarterback position and being able to catch the trends in a bottle in real time as part of an effort to build a championship program is one of greatest challenges in front of Tom Herman.
In putting together a 2016 All-Texas Team of former high school prospects this weekend, it became clear that the lack of depth of big-time players across the board at a number of positions wasn’t just a Texas Longhorns problem.
It was a state of football in the state of Texas problem.
While, we could probably argue for days about the top two quarterbacks or the top four running backs from Texas across college football, I found myself shrugging my shoulders when trying to piece together other elements of the team.
For instance, there were only two Texans in all of the five power five conferences in college football that were named first-team all-conference along the offensive line, which means upon first glance, I had to seriously consider whether or not Kent Perkins was one of the four best interior linemen that the state has produced for the 2016 season.
Long story short, when you ask yourself why zero teams from the state of Texas finished in either Top 25 poll at the end of the season, a scary truth is revealing itself.
It’s the talent.
If you’re Texas and the overwhelming percentage of your players comes from your home state, what do you do when the home state doesn’t produce game-changing talent … say at offensive line … or tight end … or defensive tackle … or linebacker?
The goal for Herman and Co. moving forward is trying to determine in advance when not to go all-in with the state of Texas talent pool.
As I give you the Orangebloods All-Texas team, it’s one of the themes that never goes away once we get beyond the skill players.
No. 2 – All-Texas Offense ...
(Note: For those that haven’t caught on, only players that played their high school ball in the state of Texas are eligible, which means players like Michael Dickson, Malcolm Roach and Christian Kirk aren’t eligible for this esteemed honor)
Quarterback
First team: Baker Mayfield (Jr. - Oklahoma - Lake Travis)
Rivals Mid-Three Star (5.6)
Second team: Jalen Hurts (Fr. - Alabama - Channelview)
Rivals Low-Four Star (5.8)
Thoughts: You can make a strong case for Ohio State’s J.T. Barrett, Texas Tech’s Pat Mahomes and Houston’s Greg Ward, but ultimately Mayfield’s passer rating was the best in the nation and I just felt like Barrett deserved the second spot over the other three by the slightest of margins. It’s pretty amazing to think that three of the power five conferences' best quarterbacks were from the state of Texas, as were two of the final four teams.
Where are they: It’s possible that Jerrod Heard (only four-star quarterback prospect from Texas in 2014) is the current biggest quarterback miss from the highest rated prospects at his position in the last few years. Other notable four stars include Texas A&M’s Trevor Knight, TCU’s Kenny Hill and UT’s Tyrone Swoopes. Auburn’s Jarrett Stidham will be one to keep an eye on in 2017.
Running backs
First team
D’Onta Foreman (Jr. - Texas - Texas City)
Rivals High-Two Star (5.4)
Aaron Jones (Jr. - UTEP - El Paso Burges)
Rivals High Two Star (5.4)
Second team
Sam Perine (Jr. - Oklahoma - Pflugerville Hendrickson)
Rivals Low-Four Star (5.8)
Ronald Jones (So. - USC - McKinney North)
Rivals High Four Star (6.0)
Thoughts: Foreman and Jones ranked second and fourth in the nation in rushing yards, respectively, while Perine and Jones were stars on two of the best teams in the entire country. You could make a strong case for former four-stars Rawleigh Williams III (Arkansas) and Trayveon Williams (Texas A&M) being second-team performers.
Where are they: Former five-star Soso Jamabo has yet to make an impact at UCLA, while Texas A&M’s Keith Ford (highest-rated Texas back in the 2013 class,) is the No. 2 back for the Aggies behind their star freshman.
Wide receivers
First team
Dede Westbrook (Jr. -Oklahoma - Cameron)
Rivals Low-Four Star (5.8)
James Washington (Jr. - Oklahoma State - Stamford)
Rivals Low Three Star (5.5)
Second team:
K.D. Cannon (Jr. - Baylor - Mount Pleasant)
Rivals High-Four Star (6.0)
Zay Jones (Sr. - East Carolina - Austin High)
Rivals High Two Star (5.4)
Thoughts: The competition at running back was as stiff as the competition at wide receiver, as national top 35 receivers Courtland Sutton (SMU), Jonathan Giles (Texas Tech), Keevan Lucas (Tulsa), Linell Bonner (Houston) and Josh Reynolds (Texas A&M) could crack the top four, but definitely warrant recognition.
Where are they: The best two prospects in the 2013 class (Baylor’s Robbie Rhodes and Miami’s Derrick Griffin) have been monumental busts. DaMarcus Lodge is still fighting to crack the starting line-up at Ole Miss as he heads into his junior season next year.
Tight End
First team: Daniel Montiel (Sr. - Memphis - Arlington)
Rivals mid two stars (5.3)
Second team: N/A
Thoughts: I spent more than an hour trying to find candidates for the second spot at this position and just couldn’t come up with anyone. Of the four tight ends from the Big 12 Conference that received at least honorable mention recognition and the 30 players listed by the Mackey Award midseason watch list, none were players from the state of Texas.
Where are they: The only four-star tight end prospect from 2013-16 from the state of Texas is Stanford freshman Kaden Smith, so there aren’t really any big-time in-state guys that are out there not getting the job done.
Offensive Tackles
First Team
Connor Williams (Jr. - Texas - Coppell)
Rivals Low Four Star (5.8)
Zach Crabtree (Jr. - Oklahoma State - Mansfield)
Rivals High Three Star (5.7)
Second team
Bobby Evans (Fr. - Oklahoma - Allen)
Rivals Low Four-Star (5.8)
Toby Weathersby (So. - LSU - Spring Westfield)
Rivals Mid Four Star (5.8)
Thoughts: Outside of the top four guys, there wasn’t much else to choose from. Hell, Evans and Weathersby weren’t even all-conference players this season, but as young players they showed enough upside to crack the list. Williams, Evans and Weathersby were all four-star prospects from the 2015 class.
Where are they: Kent Perkins is probably the biggest offensive line miss in the Rivals rankings in the last four years, as he represents the only national top 100 tackle prospect in the last five years that really never connected.
Interior Offensive linemen
First Team
Kyle Fuller (Sr. - Baylor - Wylie)
Rivals High Three Star (5.7)
Adam West (Sr. - Navy - Klein)
Unranked by Rivals
Baylen Brown (Sr. - Texas Tech - SA O’Connor_
Rivals High Three Star (5.7)
Second Team
Austin Schlottmann (Jr. - TCU - Brenham)
Rivals Low Three Star (5.5)
Connor Lanfear (So. - Texas A&M - Buda Hays)
Rivals Low Four Star (5.8)
Jake McMillon (So. - Abilene - Texas)
Rivals Low Three Stars (5.5)
Thoughts: Outside of Fuller, these are just names to fill out a list because he’s the only interior lineman from the state of Texas that was named to any of the major conferences all-conference first-teams in America, although West was a first-team member of the American Conference. Where are all of the good offensive linemen?
Where are they: Former national top 50 prospects Demetrius Knox and Darius James are the primary big-time prospect that really haven’t been able to find a niche in the line-up, although injuries have been an issue.
No. 2B – All-Texas Defense …
Defensive Tackles
First Team
Ed Oliver (Fr. - Houston - Spring Westfield)
Rivals Five Star (6.1)
Vincent Taylor (Jr. - Oklahoma State - SA Madison)
Rivals High Three Star (5.7)
Second Team
Jordan Wade (Sr. - Oklahoma - RR Stoney Point)
Rivals Low Four Star (5.8)
Aaron Curry (Sr. TCU - Keller Fossil Ridge)
Rivals Mid Three Star (5.6)
Thoughts: If it wasn't for Oliver, we’d be talking about how uninspiring this group is, but instead we’re talking about … well … kind of the same thing. Taylor, Wade and Curry were all solid college players, but I don’t think anyone would describe them as game-changers and that’s about as good as it gets from the 2016 performances.
Where are they: A’Shawn Robinson and Andrew Billings are both in the NFL from the Class of 2013, which leaves Justin Manning as one of the biggest disappointments from that year’s class of DTs. The other glaring omission would have to be fellow Aggies national top 100 prospect Daylon Mack, who has been nothing more than a bit player in his first couple of seasons.
Defensive Ends
First Team
Myles Garrett (Jr. - Texas A&M - Arlington Martin)
Rivals Five Star (6.1)
Solomon Thomas (Jr. - Stanford - Coppell)
Rivals High Four Star (6.0)
Second Team
Daeshon Hall (Sr. - Texas A&M - Frisco Centennial)
Rivals Low Four Star (5.8)
Breckyn Hager (So. - Texas - Austin Westlake)
Rivals High Two Star (5.4)
Thoughts: It really doesn’t get better from a talent standpoint than the top two, both of whom are expected to be first round picks in the NFL Draft. Once you get past the top four, players like K.J. Smith (Baylor), Dorance Armstrong Jr. (Kansas) and Josh Carraway all warrant mentioning, but it’s a pretty big drop off after the top 4-5 guys in the state.
Where are they: Former Longhorn Derick Roberson was one of the top-rated impact prospects that went bust in the last few classes, while we wait to see if Charles Omenihu and Brandon Bowen pan out over the next few years.
Linebackers
First Team
Jimmie Gilbert (Sr. - Colorado - A&M Consolidated)
Rivals Low Three Star (5.5)
Devonte Fields (Sr. - Louisville - Arlington Martin)
Rivals Low Four Star (5.8)
Travin Howard (Jr. - TCU - Longview)
Rivals High Two Stars (5.4)
Second Team
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (Jr. - Oklahoma State - Alief Taylor)
Rivals High Three Star (5.7)
Tyus Bowser (Sr. - Houston - John Tyler)
Rivals High Three Star (5.7)
Chad Whitener (Jr. - Oklahoma State - Mansfield)
Rivals Low Three Star (5.5)
Thoughts: Gilbert was an all-Pac 12 player in his final year, while Howard was all-Big 12, but this is another group where you have to be creative in order to put six players together for the list.
Where are they: Malik Jefferson probably could have been in the top six, but I didn’t list him after such an uneven season. If he’s not the captain at this position next season, I’ll be very surprised.
Cornerbacks
First Team
Tony Brown (Jr. - Alabama - Beaumont Ozen)
Rivals Five Star (6.1)
Jordan Thomas (Jr. - Oklahoma - Klein)
Rivals High Three Star (5.7)
Second Team
Howard Wilson (So. - Houston - DeSoto)
Rivals High Two Star (5.4)
Howard Richardson (Sr. - SMU - Everman)
Rivals Low Three Stars (5.5)
Thoughts: Outside of Thomas, not a single cornerback from the Texas prep ranks earned first-team all-conference honors in any of the five power conferences and only one more earned second-team honors, which is how players like Wilson and Richardson crack the list and it’s why I put a starter on the No. 2 team in college football on the list rather blindly.
Where are they: There might be more highly-rated defensive backs prospects that are flopping at the next level than any other position in the state. Guys like Holton Hill, Kris Boyd and Nick Harvey are still trying to evolve into future NFL players.
Safeties
First Team
Jamal Adams (Jr. - LSU - Lewisville Hebron)
Rivals Five Star (6.1)
Armani Watts (Jr. - Texas A&M -
Rivals Low Four Star (5.8)
Second Team
Jordan Sterns (Sr. - Oklahoma State - Cibolo Steele)
Rivals Low Three Star (5.5)
Denzel Johnson (Sr. - TCU - Gainesville)
Rivals High Two Stars (5.4)
Thoughts: Adams is the real difference-maker among the group, while the other three players were solid this season, but certainly not spectacular. Finding a fourth guy that I felt really strong about never really materialized.
Where are they: Former national top 50 prospect Deionte Thompson just completed his redshirt freshman season at Alabama, so it’s too early to know which direction his career will go, while Dylan Sumner-Gardner and Ed Paris are highly-rated players from the 2014 class that haven’t yet taken off.
No. 3– Final thoughts on this project ...
Could an all-star team made up of the best Texas prospects from 2013-2016 win a national title?
That’s the first question I asked myself when I completed the project on Sunday and after a little deliberation, I found myself thinking absolutely yes. Even if I don’t love the offensive line or the linebackers, the skill players and top-end front four and secondary pieces on defense would be hard to beat.
The problem is that I’m not sure I would say the same thing about a second-team all-star group from this state. While the skill players are still A+, the lines on both sides of the ball wouldn’t be competitive in a game against the likes of Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State. Really, I’m not sure the depth outside of the skill position players would leave you with a team that would rank among the best in the country.
And that’s a hell of a rub if you’re any team that is using the state of Texas as its primary recruiting source because it means that all you have to do in a year like 2016 is go 100-percent on both you’re evaluations and recruiting.
It means you have to sweep the board of the right five-star prospects in Oliver, Brown, Adams and get lucky on the rest. Perhaps it’s a bit of an anomaly, but there is a very deep group of players that I was choosing from and at times I felt like I was looking for a needle in a haystack.
There’s a reason why Baylor, Houston, Rice, SMU, TCU, Texas A&M, Texas Tech and, yes, Texas finished outside of the Top 25 this season.
The talent produced by the state didn’t really allow for it.
So, let me ask this question again in a different way - can you win a national championship right now if you’re using the state of Texas to produce 80-percent of your roster?
If you’ve got the right quarterback, you’ve always got a fighting chance, which means that the discussion really begins here. If you’ve got that guy, then you’ve really got to over-perform against the results that the state’s talent is currently producing.
It’s really something I need to spend a little more time thinking about, but the ramifications of the current trends in Texas aren’t really befitting of a state that produces so many college players.
No. 4 – Scattershooting on the Longhorns/recruiting …
… It’s a strange world we live in when a JUCO linebacker is the most important/talented/highly ranked prospect left on the Texas recruiting board, but that is the value of Dodge City linebacker Gary Johnson. After a very good weekend on the 40 Acres, things look optimistic for the high four-star, but visits to Oregon and especially USC loom ominously.
… Although he’s playing it cool, I think Dallas Bishop Lynch cornerback Chevin Calloway is going to be a Longhorn, but look for Arkansas and Ole Miss to play the depth chart game with him in the coming weeks. Of all of is post-visit quotes given to Jason Suchomel, this one stood out the most..
“At first I was concerned with number of DBs. I don't mind competition, but I’m trying to get on the field,”
… Speaking of Suchomel, I completely agree with his take that one of the biggest development of the weekend is the possibility that Temple defensive end commit Taquan Graham might cancel his remaining visits. All things being equal, this isn’t a guy you want visiting Oklahoma late in the recruiting process.
… Texas is going to get Grant Polley because I refuse to believe a kid with a Colorado offer would really pick the Buffs over Texas. That would represent a humbling recruiting loss in my mind, if the Longhorns can’t flip him.
… No word yet on the impact of K’Lavon Chaisson’s visit to LSU this weekend. Since he talks so little to the press, it’s possible that info on that visit and the state of his recruitment might take some time to reveal itself. Ed Orgeron is a scary guy to be recruiting against head’s up.
No. 5 – Buy or sell …
BUY or SELL: Shane Buechele has enough tools to run Tom Herman's offense effectively enough that no other QB sees meaningful playing time next year?
(Sell) I don’t doubt that Buechele has enough tools in the tool belt to emerge as the dominant force at the position for the Longhorns, but it’s about whether he is effectively using those tools well enough, while also staying healthy along the way, to keep others from getting some action. At this point, I’m expecting there to be a full-fledged quarterback battle this off-season and Buechele has to step up his level of play. Period.
BUY or SELL: Strictly considering the 2017 recruiting class, Charlie Strong, even given his team’s continuing poor on-field performance, would have been able to close out a better recruiting class than his successor this year, if he had been retained, due to his tenure, past contact with these recruits, and his ability to close strong once he got on a recruit's "couch."?
(Sell) Recruiting would be a disaster with Strong in control of the program. I don’t really know who this staff would have been able to close with outside of K’Lavon Chaisson, but Toneil Carter and a host of others that have been in play in the last month would not be if not for the new staff.
BUY or SELL: The decision to add former Baylor staffer Casey Horny by Tom Herman as special teams quality control assistant will be a distraction and will be continued to be questioned by fans and Longhorn supporters in light of his being part of the Art Briles issues at Baylor?
(Sell) This likely won’t be a big deal because the position in the program is so small that it’s shelf-life can’t be anything other than small, but on some levels this is about the principle of the matter. Tom Herman felt confident enough about this hire to make it in the first place, but not confident enough to respond to requests about it within the first 100 hours of it breaking publicly, despite multiple requests. When you consider the shady-looking nature of Horny deleting pro-Art Briles tweets AFTER his hire became public, the inability to address the situation at a bare minimum with a super-positive press release statement citing his confidence in Horny’s character is disappointing. It’s a poor look over something that never needed to be a poor look.
BUY or SELL: Texas gets a juco/transfer QB?
(Buy) I think the early vibe on things is that Herman wants to add quarterback depth, especially with Sam Ehlinger’s recent injury history, so I have to think that a staff that is used to looking for talent under rocks will find a way to add someone before August. Unlike Charlie Strong, Herman is not going to sit around and wait for someone to fall into his lap.
BUY or SELL: At the moment, Tom Herman's ceiling for success as the Texas head coach is closer to Mike Gundy than it is to Urban Meyer or Nick Saban?
(Buy) At the moment, this program doesn’t have the talent base or the recruiting force to be mentioned in the same breath as Meyer or Saban, which limits Herman’s immediate ceiling. I would argue the long-term ceiling at Texas never changes and if you really get momentum going, the possibilities are endless.
BUY or SELL: Gary Johnson commits to Texas?
(Buy) The power of positive thinking, right?
BUY or SELL: Due to the excitement in the program, more than 70,000 will attend the spring game?
(Sell) Come on...
BUY or SELL: The Longhorn football team will finish 8-4 next season and will be very competitive in their losses?
(Buy) I’m not ready to make a season prediction yet, but I could easily see that type of season occurring.
BUY or SELL: Tom Herman has already won over the present team and they will show that in the spring game?
(Sell) There’s work to be done. I’m not even sure what you’re asking is possible, considering the team is just now set to return to campus this week.
BUY or SELL: This is merely a forgettable season and Shaka gets things rolling starting next year?
(Buy) It all starts with what happens on Monday.
No. 6 – Texas basketball fans, take a page from the Sam Hinkie playbook …
Trust the process.
As brutal as the 2016-17 season has been for everyone around these parts, I’m going to lead the way for you as I channel my inner-76ers fan ideology.
The only thing that matters is having the pieces needed to compete for a championship and until those pieces are in place, what happens on the court is fairly meaningless. Considering this year’s Texas team was never going to come close to winning a championship, the future matters significantly more than the present.
On Monday, the future has a chance to arrive with a commitment from Oak Hill Academy point guard Matt Coleman, who ranks as Rivals’ No. 35 prospect in the country and projects as a possible three- or four-year college player, and who makes his decision on Monday morning on ESPN U.
If the Longhorns can close the deal with Coleman, the single most important building block in Shaka Smart’s rebuilding project will be in place. It represents the light at the end of the tunnel for this dreadful campaign.
Trust the process… it could pay huge dividends in about 12 hours.
No. 7 – Aaron F&^%*&^ Rodgers …
Man, I really don’t know what to say about what happened on Sunday as a life-long, die-hard Cowboys fan.
On a day when overtime felt like a fair payout to two teams that had played well enough to win, one team had the greatest quarterback these eyes have ever seen and the other one didn’t.
It’s that simple. We got Aaron Rodgers’d.
I’m still just kind of stunned.
No. 8 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
… Joe Montana and Tom Brady don’t make that throw that Aaron Rodgers made today to beat Dallas. They just don’t. We’re watching the GOAT on a heater right now.
… I feel better about Dak Prescott after Sunday than I ever have at any other point this season. The kid delivered a near-100 quarterback rating and almost pulled off a comeback that would make Roger Staubach smile.
… Longhorns remaining in the NFL playoffs: Malcom Brown (New England). That’s it.
… Tweet of the Weekend: From one of everyone’s favorite Longhorns.
… I don’t know how the Houston Texans pull it off, but that team needs to go get Tony Romo. It’s a gamble, but what else can they do?
… Give me a Brady/Rodgers Super Bowl. That’s the game we deserve, just once.
… Get your popcorn ready: Cleveland at Golden State on Monday night.
… I can’t be the only one that wants to see a Golden State/Houston match-up in the Western Conference Finals. No offense, Spurs fans.
… Isaiah Thomas (Celtics-version) is a bad, bad dude. He’s basically Steph Curry from last season.
... Russell Westbrook has 20 triple doubles in 42 games. James Harden has 13 in 43. These are the best of times in the NBA.
… Joel Embiid Tweet of the Weekend..
... A few weeks before Holly Holm headlines a pay-per-view in the UFC, B.J. Penn headlines a free card on Fox on Sunday night. Yeesh. That being said, Yair Rodriguez is the truth.
… Given the line-up issues Liverpool dealt with on Sunday, ranging from FIFA messing with Joel Matip to the Africa Cup stealing Sadio Mane to injury issues keeping Nathaniel Clyne and Philippe Coutinho out of the starting line-up, I should probably be happy with getting a point at Manchester United on Sunday, but after leading into the 84th minute, it felt like we gave away another two points. Bah, humbug.
… Manchester City was beaten this weekend by Everton like the entire team stole money from granny’s purse.
… With Real Madrid’s loss on Sunday ending a 40-match unbeaten streak, Zinedine Zidane now has the same number of losses in his career as manager for Madrid as he does trophies.
No. 9 – This and That ...
… Thing that annoys me that might just be a me issue: Police officers driving cars in the middle lane of the highway at the speed limit, seemingly daring anyone to go around them above the speed limit for miles.
... Went to Big Cat BBQ in Cedar Park this weekend after reading about it on the Orangebloods message board. Very solid 7 out of 10.
... My wife said this out-loud this week... "Oooooh, Double-vision.... (long pause)... Foreigner is better than The Stones."
... My wife wants to go to The Price is Right when it's at the Cedar Park Center in March. Who's with us?
… Go take the family to Hidden Figures. Absolutely stellar.
… It drags a little in the final 30 minutes, but Silence was a pretty incredible movie experience.
… My updated Oscars rankings (based on movies that I have seen)
Best Picture
1. Arrival
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. La-la Land
4. Silence
5. Fences
6. Hidden Figures
7. Hell or High Water
8. Moonlight
9. Miss Sloane
10. Sully
Best Actor
1. Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
2. Denzel Washington (Fences)
3. Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
4. Andrew Garfield (Silence)
5. Tom Hanks (Sully)
Best Actress
1. Emma Stone (La La Land))
2. Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane)
3. Amy Adams (Arrival)
3, Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures)
5. Marion Cotillard (Allied)
Best Supporting Actor
1. Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
2. Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
3. Issey Ogata (Silence)
4. Andre Holland (Moonlight)
5. Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Best Supporting Actress
1. Viola Davis (Fences)
2. Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
3. Naomi Harris (Moonlight)
4. Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures))
5. Lupita Nyong’o (Queen of Katwe)
Best Director
1. Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
2. Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
3. Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
4. Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
5. Martin Scorsese (Silence)
Still need to see: Hacksaw Ridge, Lion, Loving, Jackie, Nocturnal Animals, 20th Century Woman, Captain Fantastic and Elle.
No. 10 - And finally …
While I was wallowing in pity on Sunday night in the aftermath of the Dallas loss, I learned that my best friend in high school had a mini-stroke on Saturday and is at UT-Galveston undergoing tests after losing feeling in the left side of his body for a while.
Hug your loved ones. Never take a second of life for granted. In the grand scheme, sports is just a little thing.
Football in this state isn't the same in 2017 as it was in 2002. Or 2007. Or 2012.
Proof of the changes that have taken place is the fact that for the better part of an entire generation, elite-level quarterback play was so scarce that a guy like Billy Joe Tolliver was the class of the quarterback ranks from this state. A couple of decades later, Texas has become the state that everyone in the country looks to dip into for its quarterback answers.
Yet, the cause and effect of these changes inside the style of play that dominates the Texas preps football extends beyond the improvement at the quarterback position and being able to catch the trends in a bottle in real time as part of an effort to build a championship program is one of greatest challenges in front of Tom Herman.
In putting together a 2016 All-Texas Team of former high school prospects this weekend, it became clear that the lack of depth of big-time players across the board at a number of positions wasn’t just a Texas Longhorns problem.
It was a state of football in the state of Texas problem.
While, we could probably argue for days about the top two quarterbacks or the top four running backs from Texas across college football, I found myself shrugging my shoulders when trying to piece together other elements of the team.
For instance, there were only two Texans in all of the five power five conferences in college football that were named first-team all-conference along the offensive line, which means upon first glance, I had to seriously consider whether or not Kent Perkins was one of the four best interior linemen that the state has produced for the 2016 season.
Long story short, when you ask yourself why zero teams from the state of Texas finished in either Top 25 poll at the end of the season, a scary truth is revealing itself.
It’s the talent.
If you’re Texas and the overwhelming percentage of your players comes from your home state, what do you do when the home state doesn’t produce game-changing talent … say at offensive line … or tight end … or defensive tackle … or linebacker?
The goal for Herman and Co. moving forward is trying to determine in advance when not to go all-in with the state of Texas talent pool.
As I give you the Orangebloods All-Texas team, it’s one of the themes that never goes away once we get beyond the skill players.
No. 2 – All-Texas Offense ...
(Note: For those that haven’t caught on, only players that played their high school ball in the state of Texas are eligible, which means players like Michael Dickson, Malcolm Roach and Christian Kirk aren’t eligible for this esteemed honor)
Quarterback
First team: Baker Mayfield (Jr. - Oklahoma - Lake Travis)
Rivals Mid-Three Star (5.6)
Second team: Jalen Hurts (Fr. - Alabama - Channelview)
Rivals Low-Four Star (5.8)
Thoughts: You can make a strong case for Ohio State’s J.T. Barrett, Texas Tech’s Pat Mahomes and Houston’s Greg Ward, but ultimately Mayfield’s passer rating was the best in the nation and I just felt like Barrett deserved the second spot over the other three by the slightest of margins. It’s pretty amazing to think that three of the power five conferences' best quarterbacks were from the state of Texas, as were two of the final four teams.
Where are they: It’s possible that Jerrod Heard (only four-star quarterback prospect from Texas in 2014) is the current biggest quarterback miss from the highest rated prospects at his position in the last few years. Other notable four stars include Texas A&M’s Trevor Knight, TCU’s Kenny Hill and UT’s Tyrone Swoopes. Auburn’s Jarrett Stidham will be one to keep an eye on in 2017.
Running backs
First team
D’Onta Foreman (Jr. - Texas - Texas City)
Rivals High-Two Star (5.4)
Aaron Jones (Jr. - UTEP - El Paso Burges)
Rivals High Two Star (5.4)
Second team
Sam Perine (Jr. - Oklahoma - Pflugerville Hendrickson)
Rivals Low-Four Star (5.8)
Ronald Jones (So. - USC - McKinney North)
Rivals High Four Star (6.0)
Thoughts: Foreman and Jones ranked second and fourth in the nation in rushing yards, respectively, while Perine and Jones were stars on two of the best teams in the entire country. You could make a strong case for former four-stars Rawleigh Williams III (Arkansas) and Trayveon Williams (Texas A&M) being second-team performers.
Where are they: Former five-star Soso Jamabo has yet to make an impact at UCLA, while Texas A&M’s Keith Ford (highest-rated Texas back in the 2013 class,) is the No. 2 back for the Aggies behind their star freshman.
Wide receivers
First team
Dede Westbrook (Jr. -Oklahoma - Cameron)
Rivals Low-Four Star (5.8)
James Washington (Jr. - Oklahoma State - Stamford)
Rivals Low Three Star (5.5)
Second team:
K.D. Cannon (Jr. - Baylor - Mount Pleasant)
Rivals High-Four Star (6.0)
Zay Jones (Sr. - East Carolina - Austin High)
Rivals High Two Star (5.4)
Thoughts: The competition at running back was as stiff as the competition at wide receiver, as national top 35 receivers Courtland Sutton (SMU), Jonathan Giles (Texas Tech), Keevan Lucas (Tulsa), Linell Bonner (Houston) and Josh Reynolds (Texas A&M) could crack the top four, but definitely warrant recognition.
Where are they: The best two prospects in the 2013 class (Baylor’s Robbie Rhodes and Miami’s Derrick Griffin) have been monumental busts. DaMarcus Lodge is still fighting to crack the starting line-up at Ole Miss as he heads into his junior season next year.
Tight End
First team: Daniel Montiel (Sr. - Memphis - Arlington)
Rivals mid two stars (5.3)
Second team: N/A
Thoughts: I spent more than an hour trying to find candidates for the second spot at this position and just couldn’t come up with anyone. Of the four tight ends from the Big 12 Conference that received at least honorable mention recognition and the 30 players listed by the Mackey Award midseason watch list, none were players from the state of Texas.
Where are they: The only four-star tight end prospect from 2013-16 from the state of Texas is Stanford freshman Kaden Smith, so there aren’t really any big-time in-state guys that are out there not getting the job done.
Offensive Tackles
First Team
Connor Williams (Jr. - Texas - Coppell)
Rivals Low Four Star (5.8)
Zach Crabtree (Jr. - Oklahoma State - Mansfield)
Rivals High Three Star (5.7)
Second team
Bobby Evans (Fr. - Oklahoma - Allen)
Rivals Low Four-Star (5.8)
Toby Weathersby (So. - LSU - Spring Westfield)
Rivals Mid Four Star (5.8)
Thoughts: Outside of the top four guys, there wasn’t much else to choose from. Hell, Evans and Weathersby weren’t even all-conference players this season, but as young players they showed enough upside to crack the list. Williams, Evans and Weathersby were all four-star prospects from the 2015 class.
Where are they: Kent Perkins is probably the biggest offensive line miss in the Rivals rankings in the last four years, as he represents the only national top 100 tackle prospect in the last five years that really never connected.
Interior Offensive linemen
First Team
Kyle Fuller (Sr. - Baylor - Wylie)
Rivals High Three Star (5.7)
Adam West (Sr. - Navy - Klein)
Unranked by Rivals
Baylen Brown (Sr. - Texas Tech - SA O’Connor_
Rivals High Three Star (5.7)
Second Team
Austin Schlottmann (Jr. - TCU - Brenham)
Rivals Low Three Star (5.5)
Connor Lanfear (So. - Texas A&M - Buda Hays)
Rivals Low Four Star (5.8)
Jake McMillon (So. - Abilene - Texas)
Rivals Low Three Stars (5.5)
Thoughts: Outside of Fuller, these are just names to fill out a list because he’s the only interior lineman from the state of Texas that was named to any of the major conferences all-conference first-teams in America, although West was a first-team member of the American Conference. Where are all of the good offensive linemen?
Where are they: Former national top 50 prospects Demetrius Knox and Darius James are the primary big-time prospect that really haven’t been able to find a niche in the line-up, although injuries have been an issue.
No. 2B – All-Texas Defense …
Defensive Tackles
First Team
Ed Oliver (Fr. - Houston - Spring Westfield)
Rivals Five Star (6.1)
Vincent Taylor (Jr. - Oklahoma State - SA Madison)
Rivals High Three Star (5.7)
Second Team
Jordan Wade (Sr. - Oklahoma - RR Stoney Point)
Rivals Low Four Star (5.8)
Aaron Curry (Sr. TCU - Keller Fossil Ridge)
Rivals Mid Three Star (5.6)
Thoughts: If it wasn't for Oliver, we’d be talking about how uninspiring this group is, but instead we’re talking about … well … kind of the same thing. Taylor, Wade and Curry were all solid college players, but I don’t think anyone would describe them as game-changers and that’s about as good as it gets from the 2016 performances.
Where are they: A’Shawn Robinson and Andrew Billings are both in the NFL from the Class of 2013, which leaves Justin Manning as one of the biggest disappointments from that year’s class of DTs. The other glaring omission would have to be fellow Aggies national top 100 prospect Daylon Mack, who has been nothing more than a bit player in his first couple of seasons.
Defensive Ends
First Team
Myles Garrett (Jr. - Texas A&M - Arlington Martin)
Rivals Five Star (6.1)
Solomon Thomas (Jr. - Stanford - Coppell)
Rivals High Four Star (6.0)
Second Team
Daeshon Hall (Sr. - Texas A&M - Frisco Centennial)
Rivals Low Four Star (5.8)
Breckyn Hager (So. - Texas - Austin Westlake)
Rivals High Two Star (5.4)
Thoughts: It really doesn’t get better from a talent standpoint than the top two, both of whom are expected to be first round picks in the NFL Draft. Once you get past the top four, players like K.J. Smith (Baylor), Dorance Armstrong Jr. (Kansas) and Josh Carraway all warrant mentioning, but it’s a pretty big drop off after the top 4-5 guys in the state.
Where are they: Former Longhorn Derick Roberson was one of the top-rated impact prospects that went bust in the last few classes, while we wait to see if Charles Omenihu and Brandon Bowen pan out over the next few years.
Linebackers
First Team
Jimmie Gilbert (Sr. - Colorado - A&M Consolidated)
Rivals Low Three Star (5.5)
Devonte Fields (Sr. - Louisville - Arlington Martin)
Rivals Low Four Star (5.8)
Travin Howard (Jr. - TCU - Longview)
Rivals High Two Stars (5.4)
Second Team
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (Jr. - Oklahoma State - Alief Taylor)
Rivals High Three Star (5.7)
Tyus Bowser (Sr. - Houston - John Tyler)
Rivals High Three Star (5.7)
Chad Whitener (Jr. - Oklahoma State - Mansfield)
Rivals Low Three Star (5.5)
Thoughts: Gilbert was an all-Pac 12 player in his final year, while Howard was all-Big 12, but this is another group where you have to be creative in order to put six players together for the list.
Where are they: Malik Jefferson probably could have been in the top six, but I didn’t list him after such an uneven season. If he’s not the captain at this position next season, I’ll be very surprised.
Cornerbacks
First Team
Tony Brown (Jr. - Alabama - Beaumont Ozen)
Rivals Five Star (6.1)
Jordan Thomas (Jr. - Oklahoma - Klein)
Rivals High Three Star (5.7)
Second Team
Howard Wilson (So. - Houston - DeSoto)
Rivals High Two Star (5.4)
Howard Richardson (Sr. - SMU - Everman)
Rivals Low Three Stars (5.5)
Thoughts: Outside of Thomas, not a single cornerback from the Texas prep ranks earned first-team all-conference honors in any of the five power conferences and only one more earned second-team honors, which is how players like Wilson and Richardson crack the list and it’s why I put a starter on the No. 2 team in college football on the list rather blindly.
Where are they: There might be more highly-rated defensive backs prospects that are flopping at the next level than any other position in the state. Guys like Holton Hill, Kris Boyd and Nick Harvey are still trying to evolve into future NFL players.
Safeties
First Team
Jamal Adams (Jr. - LSU - Lewisville Hebron)
Rivals Five Star (6.1)
Armani Watts (Jr. - Texas A&M -
Rivals Low Four Star (5.8)
Second Team
Jordan Sterns (Sr. - Oklahoma State - Cibolo Steele)
Rivals Low Three Star (5.5)
Denzel Johnson (Sr. - TCU - Gainesville)
Rivals High Two Stars (5.4)
Thoughts: Adams is the real difference-maker among the group, while the other three players were solid this season, but certainly not spectacular. Finding a fourth guy that I felt really strong about never really materialized.
Where are they: Former national top 50 prospect Deionte Thompson just completed his redshirt freshman season at Alabama, so it’s too early to know which direction his career will go, while Dylan Sumner-Gardner and Ed Paris are highly-rated players from the 2014 class that haven’t yet taken off.
No. 3– Final thoughts on this project ...
Could an all-star team made up of the best Texas prospects from 2013-2016 win a national title?
That’s the first question I asked myself when I completed the project on Sunday and after a little deliberation, I found myself thinking absolutely yes. Even if I don’t love the offensive line or the linebackers, the skill players and top-end front four and secondary pieces on defense would be hard to beat.
The problem is that I’m not sure I would say the same thing about a second-team all-star group from this state. While the skill players are still A+, the lines on both sides of the ball wouldn’t be competitive in a game against the likes of Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State. Really, I’m not sure the depth outside of the skill position players would leave you with a team that would rank among the best in the country.
And that’s a hell of a rub if you’re any team that is using the state of Texas as its primary recruiting source because it means that all you have to do in a year like 2016 is go 100-percent on both you’re evaluations and recruiting.
It means you have to sweep the board of the right five-star prospects in Oliver, Brown, Adams and get lucky on the rest. Perhaps it’s a bit of an anomaly, but there is a very deep group of players that I was choosing from and at times I felt like I was looking for a needle in a haystack.
There’s a reason why Baylor, Houston, Rice, SMU, TCU, Texas A&M, Texas Tech and, yes, Texas finished outside of the Top 25 this season.
The talent produced by the state didn’t really allow for it.
So, let me ask this question again in a different way - can you win a national championship right now if you’re using the state of Texas to produce 80-percent of your roster?
If you’ve got the right quarterback, you’ve always got a fighting chance, which means that the discussion really begins here. If you’ve got that guy, then you’ve really got to over-perform against the results that the state’s talent is currently producing.
It’s really something I need to spend a little more time thinking about, but the ramifications of the current trends in Texas aren’t really befitting of a state that produces so many college players.
No. 4 – Scattershooting on the Longhorns/recruiting …
… It’s a strange world we live in when a JUCO linebacker is the most important/talented/highly ranked prospect left on the Texas recruiting board, but that is the value of Dodge City linebacker Gary Johnson. After a very good weekend on the 40 Acres, things look optimistic for the high four-star, but visits to Oregon and especially USC loom ominously.
… Although he’s playing it cool, I think Dallas Bishop Lynch cornerback Chevin Calloway is going to be a Longhorn, but look for Arkansas and Ole Miss to play the depth chart game with him in the coming weeks. Of all of is post-visit quotes given to Jason Suchomel, this one stood out the most..
“At first I was concerned with number of DBs. I don't mind competition, but I’m trying to get on the field,”
… Speaking of Suchomel, I completely agree with his take that one of the biggest development of the weekend is the possibility that Temple defensive end commit Taquan Graham might cancel his remaining visits. All things being equal, this isn’t a guy you want visiting Oklahoma late in the recruiting process.
… Texas is going to get Grant Polley because I refuse to believe a kid with a Colorado offer would really pick the Buffs over Texas. That would represent a humbling recruiting loss in my mind, if the Longhorns can’t flip him.
… No word yet on the impact of K’Lavon Chaisson’s visit to LSU this weekend. Since he talks so little to the press, it’s possible that info on that visit and the state of his recruitment might take some time to reveal itself. Ed Orgeron is a scary guy to be recruiting against head’s up.
No. 5 – Buy or sell …
BUY or SELL: Shane Buechele has enough tools to run Tom Herman's offense effectively enough that no other QB sees meaningful playing time next year?
(Sell) I don’t doubt that Buechele has enough tools in the tool belt to emerge as the dominant force at the position for the Longhorns, but it’s about whether he is effectively using those tools well enough, while also staying healthy along the way, to keep others from getting some action. At this point, I’m expecting there to be a full-fledged quarterback battle this off-season and Buechele has to step up his level of play. Period.
BUY or SELL: Strictly considering the 2017 recruiting class, Charlie Strong, even given his team’s continuing poor on-field performance, would have been able to close out a better recruiting class than his successor this year, if he had been retained, due to his tenure, past contact with these recruits, and his ability to close strong once he got on a recruit's "couch."?
(Sell) Recruiting would be a disaster with Strong in control of the program. I don’t really know who this staff would have been able to close with outside of K’Lavon Chaisson, but Toneil Carter and a host of others that have been in play in the last month would not be if not for the new staff.
BUY or SELL: The decision to add former Baylor staffer Casey Horny by Tom Herman as special teams quality control assistant will be a distraction and will be continued to be questioned by fans and Longhorn supporters in light of his being part of the Art Briles issues at Baylor?
(Sell) This likely won’t be a big deal because the position in the program is so small that it’s shelf-life can’t be anything other than small, but on some levels this is about the principle of the matter. Tom Herman felt confident enough about this hire to make it in the first place, but not confident enough to respond to requests about it within the first 100 hours of it breaking publicly, despite multiple requests. When you consider the shady-looking nature of Horny deleting pro-Art Briles tweets AFTER his hire became public, the inability to address the situation at a bare minimum with a super-positive press release statement citing his confidence in Horny’s character is disappointing. It’s a poor look over something that never needed to be a poor look.
BUY or SELL: Texas gets a juco/transfer QB?
(Buy) I think the early vibe on things is that Herman wants to add quarterback depth, especially with Sam Ehlinger’s recent injury history, so I have to think that a staff that is used to looking for talent under rocks will find a way to add someone before August. Unlike Charlie Strong, Herman is not going to sit around and wait for someone to fall into his lap.
BUY or SELL: At the moment, Tom Herman's ceiling for success as the Texas head coach is closer to Mike Gundy than it is to Urban Meyer or Nick Saban?
(Buy) At the moment, this program doesn’t have the talent base or the recruiting force to be mentioned in the same breath as Meyer or Saban, which limits Herman’s immediate ceiling. I would argue the long-term ceiling at Texas never changes and if you really get momentum going, the possibilities are endless.
BUY or SELL: Gary Johnson commits to Texas?
(Buy) The power of positive thinking, right?
BUY or SELL: Due to the excitement in the program, more than 70,000 will attend the spring game?
(Sell) Come on...
BUY or SELL: The Longhorn football team will finish 8-4 next season and will be very competitive in their losses?
(Buy) I’m not ready to make a season prediction yet, but I could easily see that type of season occurring.
BUY or SELL: Tom Herman has already won over the present team and they will show that in the spring game?
(Sell) There’s work to be done. I’m not even sure what you’re asking is possible, considering the team is just now set to return to campus this week.
BUY or SELL: This is merely a forgettable season and Shaka gets things rolling starting next year?
(Buy) It all starts with what happens on Monday.
No. 6 – Texas basketball fans, take a page from the Sam Hinkie playbook …
Trust the process.
As brutal as the 2016-17 season has been for everyone around these parts, I’m going to lead the way for you as I channel my inner-76ers fan ideology.
The only thing that matters is having the pieces needed to compete for a championship and until those pieces are in place, what happens on the court is fairly meaningless. Considering this year’s Texas team was never going to come close to winning a championship, the future matters significantly more than the present.
On Monday, the future has a chance to arrive with a commitment from Oak Hill Academy point guard Matt Coleman, who ranks as Rivals’ No. 35 prospect in the country and projects as a possible three- or four-year college player, and who makes his decision on Monday morning on ESPN U.
If the Longhorns can close the deal with Coleman, the single most important building block in Shaka Smart’s rebuilding project will be in place. It represents the light at the end of the tunnel for this dreadful campaign.
Trust the process… it could pay huge dividends in about 12 hours.
No. 7 – Aaron F&^%*&^ Rodgers …
Man, I really don’t know what to say about what happened on Sunday as a life-long, die-hard Cowboys fan.
On a day when overtime felt like a fair payout to two teams that had played well enough to win, one team had the greatest quarterback these eyes have ever seen and the other one didn’t.
It’s that simple. We got Aaron Rodgers’d.
I’m still just kind of stunned.
No. 8 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
… Joe Montana and Tom Brady don’t make that throw that Aaron Rodgers made today to beat Dallas. They just don’t. We’re watching the GOAT on a heater right now.
… I feel better about Dak Prescott after Sunday than I ever have at any other point this season. The kid delivered a near-100 quarterback rating and almost pulled off a comeback that would make Roger Staubach smile.
… Longhorns remaining in the NFL playoffs: Malcom Brown (New England). That’s it.
… Tweet of the Weekend: From one of everyone’s favorite Longhorns.
… I don’t know how the Houston Texans pull it off, but that team needs to go get Tony Romo. It’s a gamble, but what else can they do?
… Give me a Brady/Rodgers Super Bowl. That’s the game we deserve, just once.
… Get your popcorn ready: Cleveland at Golden State on Monday night.
… I can’t be the only one that wants to see a Golden State/Houston match-up in the Western Conference Finals. No offense, Spurs fans.
… Isaiah Thomas (Celtics-version) is a bad, bad dude. He’s basically Steph Curry from last season.
... Russell Westbrook has 20 triple doubles in 42 games. James Harden has 13 in 43. These are the best of times in the NBA.
… Joel Embiid Tweet of the Weekend..
... A few weeks before Holly Holm headlines a pay-per-view in the UFC, B.J. Penn headlines a free card on Fox on Sunday night. Yeesh. That being said, Yair Rodriguez is the truth.
… Given the line-up issues Liverpool dealt with on Sunday, ranging from FIFA messing with Joel Matip to the Africa Cup stealing Sadio Mane to injury issues keeping Nathaniel Clyne and Philippe Coutinho out of the starting line-up, I should probably be happy with getting a point at Manchester United on Sunday, but after leading into the 84th minute, it felt like we gave away another two points. Bah, humbug.
… Manchester City was beaten this weekend by Everton like the entire team stole money from granny’s purse.
… With Real Madrid’s loss on Sunday ending a 40-match unbeaten streak, Zinedine Zidane now has the same number of losses in his career as manager for Madrid as he does trophies.
No. 9 – This and That ...
… Thing that annoys me that might just be a me issue: Police officers driving cars in the middle lane of the highway at the speed limit, seemingly daring anyone to go around them above the speed limit for miles.
... Went to Big Cat BBQ in Cedar Park this weekend after reading about it on the Orangebloods message board. Very solid 7 out of 10.
... My wife said this out-loud this week... "Oooooh, Double-vision.... (long pause)... Foreigner is better than The Stones."
... My wife wants to go to The Price is Right when it's at the Cedar Park Center in March. Who's with us?
… Go take the family to Hidden Figures. Absolutely stellar.
… It drags a little in the final 30 minutes, but Silence was a pretty incredible movie experience.
… My updated Oscars rankings (based on movies that I have seen)
Best Picture
1. Arrival
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. La-la Land
4. Silence
5. Fences
6. Hidden Figures
7. Hell or High Water
8. Moonlight
9. Miss Sloane
10. Sully
Best Actor
1. Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
2. Denzel Washington (Fences)
3. Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
4. Andrew Garfield (Silence)
5. Tom Hanks (Sully)
Best Actress
1. Emma Stone (La La Land))
2. Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane)
3. Amy Adams (Arrival)
3, Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures)
5. Marion Cotillard (Allied)
Best Supporting Actor
1. Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
2. Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
3. Issey Ogata (Silence)
4. Andre Holland (Moonlight)
5. Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Best Supporting Actress
1. Viola Davis (Fences)
2. Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
3. Naomi Harris (Moonlight)
4. Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures))
5. Lupita Nyong’o (Queen of Katwe)
Best Director
1. Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
2. Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
3. Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
4. Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
5. Martin Scorsese (Silence)
Still need to see: Hacksaw Ridge, Lion, Loving, Jackie, Nocturnal Animals, 20th Century Woman, Captain Fantastic and Elle.
No. 10 - And finally …
While I was wallowing in pity on Sunday night in the aftermath of the Dallas loss, I learned that my best friend in high school had a mini-stroke on Saturday and is at UT-Galveston undergoing tests after losing feeling in the left side of his body for a while.
Hug your loved ones. Never take a second of life for granted. In the grand scheme, sports is just a little thing.
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