definitely my windows.that's quite a but of breakdown on that one class. do you have tinfoil on your windows and....head?
Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (That 2019 class is ugly as...)
- Thread starter Ketchum
- Start date
My 1st reaction was that I missed a season, but, I just gave in & went with it...it's a trip...this is what happens when Donald Glover has a few years & lots of weed to see where he wanted to take this...it plays like a SJW's wet dream & nightmare rolled into one.
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Absolutely LOVED "After Life".
What in the hell happened to the 2019 Texas Longhorns recruiting class?
As the remake of the Texas football program under Steve Sarkisian continues, the disaster that is Tom Herman's final recruiting class becomes clearer by the day. A class that finished No.4 in the final Rivals rankings (No.3 by 247) on paper has a chance to finish as the worst in the modern recruiting era.
My job this week is to answer how it happened in a way that will allow you to never have to ask the question again.
Let's get to it.
1. The in-state recruiting sucked
When you only sign one Top 10 in-state prospect and four in the Top 25, you're going to have problems. The Longhorns were able to cover the in-state recruiting sins on Signing Day by going heavily out of state, but it's impossible to ignore that Texas got its clock cleaned inside the Lone Star State.
The Longhorns landed two in-state prospects among the all-important top two recruiting tiers - (No.8 wide receiver) Jordan Whittington and (No.11) Tyler Owens. Typically speaking, the math says that you'll hit on one of the two and Whittington has been a soft hit thus far because of injuries.
Owens was a massive bust. He was joined by fellow 4-star misses OL Tyler Johnson, OL Javonne Shepard, LB David Gbenda, and OL Isaiah Hookfin. Only Whittington and Gbenda remain from all of the in-state four stars in the class.
2. Out-of-state recruiting was an even bigger disaster.
Here's all you need to know about the out-of-state recruiting, which was the key to the class being highly ranked in the first place... outgoing wide receiver Marcus Washington might have been the best of the bunch.
It started with five-star Bru McCoy never playing a game for the Longhorns.
The rest of the out of state roll-call looks like this: WR Jake Smith, LB De'Gabriel Floyd, CB Kenyatta Watson, TE Brayden Liebrock, CB Chris Adimore, Washington, RB Derrian Brown, DE Myron Warren, DE Jacoby Jones, LB Marcus Tillman, LB Caleb Johnson, OL Willie Tyler and LB Juwan Mitchell.
Only Liebrock remains.
It's important to note that only Smith was in the top two tiers of recruits. The rest fell into the categories that produce anywhere between 75-85% misses on an annual basis. For a variety of reasons, they all missed.
3. Only modest contributions remain.
Out of the 25 players that signed with the Longhorns in 2019, only five remain in the program. I'f we were ranking the five, the order would likely look like this (feel free to flip No.1 with No.2)
1. WR Jordan Whittington
2. RB Roschon Johnson
3. DT T'Vondre Sweat
4. LB David Gbenda
5. TE Braydon Liebrock
By comparison, whatever we want to say about the 2018 class, it did produce Joseph Ossai, Caden Sterns, Anthony Cook, DeMarvion Overshown, Keondre Coburn, Junior Angilau, D'Shawn Jamison, Cameron Dicker, Christian Jones, and Moro Ojomo. That doesn't even include players like Cameron Rising, Keaontay Ingram, Byron Hobbs, and Casey Thompson, who were/are either very good college players elsewhere or expected to start at other programs in 2022.
By comparison, the 2018 class looks like the famed 2002 outfit.
The good news is that a few of those could still emerge into NFL players. The bad news is that only one of the five are starting players going into the season.
There's not much to it beyond that - both literally and with regards to what happened.
Ugly.
No. 2 - Let's keep digging into the 2019 class ...
Five-stars actually underperformed in the 2022 NFL Draft compared to most of the last decade, as only 16 were drafted, which amounted to slightly less than 50-percent from the average of 33 five-stars per year from 2017-19. Typically, that number is closer to 60-70% on an annual basis.
On the other hand, the high four-star tier produced NFL drafted talent at a 36.3 clip, which is right in line with the numbers from the last decade. Usually, the high four-stars are in the 35-40% range and this year's results weren't any different.
With six five-stars and five high-four stars from the Lone Star State in 2019, the ballpark math suggests that 5-6 from the group of 11 should emerge as high-level college players that are eventually drafted by NFL teams.
Thus far, three have been drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft and another went in the third round. It's possible that only Jordan Whittington will be drafted from the players that remain, which would leave the production from the Top 11 pretty much where this year's data points reflect it should on average.
Let's take a look at the Top 11.
A consensus All-American in 2021 for the Aggies, Leal was drafted in the third round by the Pittsburgh Steelers.
After a solid breakout season in 2020 (37-530-4), injuries wiped out all but one game for Wease in 2021. Is expected to start in 2022 as the team's No.3 wide receiver.
A total bust at this point in his career, having both transferred from LSU to TCU after a single season and then switching to wide receiver as a junior in 2021.
The last I'd heard on Bridges, he had pleaded not guilty on counts of robbery, conspiracy and aiding and abetting with a dangerous weapon with former OU running back Seth McGowan. Not sure what he's doing at the moment.
A two-time consensus All-American for the Aggies, who was drafted No.15 overall in the 2022 NFL Draft by the Houston Texans.
Started six games as a sophomore for the Aggies, but pretty much washed out after the 2020 season, barely playing in 2021 and then entering the Portal in January.
High 4 stars
A two-time All-Big 10 selection, who was drafted No.10 overall in the 2022 NFL Draft.
Has battled injuries for three straight seasons, but if he can stay healthy in 2022, he has a chance to be one of the best wide receivers in the Big 12.
Never made an impact at Alabama in three seasons before transferring to Mississippi State in December. Banks missed much of the spring with an injury.
A first-team All-SEC player in 2021, who was drafted in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft by the Minnesota Vikings.
A total non-factor for the Longhorns for three seasons, Owens transferred to Texas Tech this off-season.
No. 3 - A look at the mid four-stars...
Once you get down to the mid-four-stars, the numbers drop from 36-49% to 22% when it comes to players that emerge as NFL Drafted players.
There were 10 such players from the Lone Star State in 2019, which means that 2 of the 10 on the average will turn into NFL players. Only one player (A&M running back Isaiah Spiller) has been drafted at this stage, but there are a couple of players (A&M defensive back Demani Richardson and Stanford wide receiver Elijah Higgins) that project as possible NFL draft picks in 2023.
Beyond that, it's bust and JAG city.
To put this into context, the Longhorns signed seven of these mid-four-stars in the 2022 class - QB Maalik Murphy, DT Jeray Bledsoe, DE J'Mond Tapp, DE Justice Finkley, WR Brenen Thompson and DB Jaylon Guilbeau. The yearly averages with this recruiting tier suggest that one or two from this group emerging as NFL draft picks is most likely.
Here's a look at those mid-four stars from 2019.
Didn't play in 2021 after playing as a reserve the previous two seasons. Not sure if he's still in the football program.
After two uneventful seasons in College Station, Wight transferred to Minnesota and caught 18 passes for 365 yards and two touchdowns as a sophomore in 2021.
Another total non-factor for the Longhorns, who quit the program last season and hasn't resurfaced anywhere.
Has been a solid starter in each of the last two seasons for the Aggies when he's been healthy. Finished the 2021 season as A&M's third-leading tackler.
Has been a very solid player for the Cardinal through three seasons, as he earned honorable mention All-Pac 12 honors in 2021 after catching 44 passes for 502 yards and four touchdowns.
Injuries hampered him throughout his career with Illinois and he is now playing for Alabama A&M after transferring this off-season.
Henderson failed to qualify coming out of high school and has bounced around to a couple of schools in the last few years, but has never come close to emerging as a player you'll ever have to remember again.
Injuries ruined his A&M career before it could ever truly begin. Transferred to Texas Tech this spring.
He's been a JAG for the Wildcats through his first three seasons with the program.
A two-time All-SEC running back, who was drafted in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL Draft.
No. 4 - The low four-star continues to be borderline worthless...
The high-three star tier of prospects actually outperformed the low four-stars in this draft by a margin of 14.7 to 13.8, which basically means that a prospect that ranks in the bottom 60 of the Rivals250 performed worse on the average than a prospect from No.350-400.
On average, no better than 1.3-1.4 prospects out of 10 will emerge as a drafted NFL player. From a very basic ball-patk perspective, the realities of these numbers rarely change from year to year. Oh, the low-four star usually outperforms the high three-star by very slight margins, but not enough to change the tone of the message I'm trying to convey.
The bottom line? Celebrating a low four-star commitment means celebrating a 85+% chance that the player won't pan out at a modestly highly level.
If you think I'm just making this up, just take a look at the 33 low-four star prospects from the 2019 class. At this point, not a single player from this group has been drafted, although A&M tight end Jalen Wydermyer proved to be one of the rare players who was a bad-ass in college and didn't get drafted (signed as a free agent by Buffalo). If I had to guess based on the current performances through three years, there's a good chance that 4-5 could get drafted, which would mean that somewhere between 12-15% would be ranked.
Guys, this isn't science, but it's not far from it.
Here are the five players I think have a chance of being drafted from the low-four star tier in 2019.
26. Branson Bragg - OL (Crandall) - Signed with Stanford
Emerged as a full-time starter in 2021 and earned honorable mention honors for the Cardinal.
31. Jalan Catalon - S (Mansfield Legacy) - Signed with Arkansas
After a great sophomore season with Arkansas, injuries hampered him throughout the 2021 season.
36. Austin Stogner - TE (Plano Prestonwood) - Signed with Oklahoma
One of the best tight ends in the Big 12 for the last three seasons, Stogner transffered to South Carolina in the off-season.
44. Layden Robinson - C (Manvel) - Signed with Texas A&M
Emerged as one of the best linemen in the SEC in 2021, earning second-team All-SEC honors as a sophomore.
47. Anfernee Orji - LB (Rockwall) - Signed with Vanderbilt
Started all 12 games as a junior in 2021 and led the team with 93 tackles and 13 tackles for loss.
Here's the other players that are either complete busts or very modest contributors going into their fourth seasons (listed by their Rivals state ranking in 2019):
22. Isaiah Hookfin - OL (Sugarland Dulles) - Signed with Texas
23. Marcus Stripling - DE (Mayde Creek) - Signed with Oklahoma
24. La'vontae Shenault - WR (Desoto) - Signed with Colorado.
25. Kam Brown - WR (Colleyville Heritage) - Signed with Texas A&M
27. Marcus Alexander - OL (Sunnyvale) - Signed with Oklahoma
28. David Gbenda - LB (Katy Cinco Ranch) - Signed with Texas
29. Colt Ellison - DE (Aledo) - Signed with TCU
30. Peyton Powell - Ath (Odessa Permian) - Signed with Baylor
32. Deondrick Glass - RB (Katy) - Signed with Oklahoma State
33. Jacon Zeno - QB (SA John Jay) - Signed with Baylor
34. Braedon Mowry - DE (Katy Taylor) - Signed with Texas A&M
35. Darwin Barlow - RB (Newton) - Signed with TCU
37. Qualan Jones - WR (Cedar Hill Trinity) - Signed with Baylor
38. David Ugwoegbu - Ath (Katy Seven Lakes) - Signed with Oklahoma
39. Javonne Shepard - OL (Houston North Forest) - Signed with Texas
40. Steven Parker - DE (South Oak Cliff) - Signed with Kansas
42. Nelson Ceasar - LB (Ridge Point) - Signed with Houston
43. Gilbert Ibeneme - DE (Pearland) - Signed with Texas Tech
45. Jamal Morris - S (Richmond Bush) - Signed with Oklahoma
46. Jacob Clark - QB (Rockwall) - Signed with Minnesota
48. T.Q. Jackson - WR (Jefferson) - Signed with Arkansas
49. Zach Zimos - LB (FB Travis) - Signed with Arkansas
50. Hunter Spears - DE (Sachse) -Signed with Notre Dame
51. Tamuzia Brown - WR (Newton) - Signed with TCU
52. Joshua Elisson - DT (A&M Consolidated) - Signed with Texas A&M
53. Jeffery Carter - CB (Mansfield Legacy) - Signed with Alabama
54. Grant Tisdale - QB (Allen) - Signed with Ole Miss
Honestly, when you look at the 2019 recruiting class from the state of Texas, it'll probably be remembered as a very average, run-of-the-mill year of prospects. Each of the top four-tiers is on course to produce what the data says it should likely produce.
The problem for Texas is that outside of Whittington, who has been hurt for much of his career, they missed on everyone and didn't catch a single break.
Meanwhile, if you take a look at a school like A&M, it hit or will likely hit on 2 out of 3 five-stars (good), 2 out of 5 mid-four stars (very good) and 2 out of 5 low-four stars (very good). It was on the right side of the fine margins in a way that is exactly the opposite for the Longhorns in 2019.
As for Oklahoma, it hit or is likely to hit on 0 of 2 five-stars and 0 of 5 low-four star prospects (unless you want to call Stogner a hit despite transferring).
No. 5 - Four thoughts Jordan Addison ...
a. I still think Addison will commit to the school that he believes will afford him the best opportunity to post obscene receiving stats in 2022, while boosting his profile as an NFL draft pick in 2023. This is a dude that caught 100 passes in 2021 and he's not looking for that number to drop. Not even a little. Hell, part of the reason he left Pittsburgh is because he knew that he wasn't catching 100 passes for transfer Kedon Slovis. With the loss of Drake London to the NFL, 88 receptions from last year's team need to be replaced and the top returning receiver on the roster was Tahj Washington, who caught 54 passes for 602 yards and a single touchdown. Meanwhile, Alabama is looking to replace 210 receptions from 2021 and doesn't have a single receiver on the roster that looks capable of replacing John Metchie's 96 catches. A year ago, Xavier Worthy caught 62 passes and no one else on the roster caught more than 26. The thing Steve Sarkisian has to convince Addison is that he';s not going to be Robin to Worthy's Batman and that an inexperienced quarterback won't keep his numbers from drifting to 70-75-ish receptions in the Texas offense.
b. I'm hearing that all things being equal, there's buzz that Addison doesn't want to spend six months of his life in Tuscaloosa, which is completely understandable. He's much more of an L.A. or Austin kind of guy. This was apparently the view from Lincoln Riley's crib over the weekend.
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c. If I was to rank where things stand coming out of the USC visit, I'd probably guess: 1) USC 2) Texas 3) Alabama
No. 6 - About the Texas baseball team ...
Am I allowed to say that outside of not being able to watch Ivan Melendez smack a baseball 450 feet, it was kind of nice to not have to live through a Texas baseball weekend adventure over the last three days.
I'm not saying I want the season to end, as much as I'm just saying that the starting pitching and bullpen can't let you down if there aren't any games.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) I'll be rooting for him to pull it off, but he's not an in-his-prime Tiger Woods, which means I'll take the field.
(Sell) I'm thinking something between 160-165.
(Buy) You're talking my language right now.
Just to be clear, here are the draft rates of each ranking tier from this year's Draft
5 stars: 48.6%
High 4: 36.3%
Mid 4: 22%
Low 4: 13.8%
High 3: 14.7%
Mid 3: 6.2%
Low 3: 4.2%
High 2: 2.7%
Mid 2: 1.6%
Low 2: 1.5%
(Sell) I'm not sure that either of those things happens.
(Sell) I can't really fault anyone for not having a team that went 5-7 last year in a pre-season Top 25.
(Sell) Nah, I don't believe that.
(Sell) We wish.
(Sell) I went al the way through 36!
(Sell) It's a group that currently doesn't have a plus player from my vantage point, so it's hard to call the unit as a whole a plus.
(Sell) I'll buy the offense, but sell the defense.
(Buy) Addison certainly will, it's just a matter of which college he's going to do it with. Those numbers are extremely far-fetched for the other two. Extremely.
(Buy) That being said, I feel like there are about 25 other things that could represent all you'd to know.
(Buy) You must have meant 80..
(Buy) I agree with you for the reasons you listed, but if he stays healthy, he'll be 23 in October of next year and I don't think he wants to be a 24-year old rookie in the NFL. I think he's ready to be a professional, he just needs to stay healthy enough for one season to give him a chance to do so.
(Buy) Duh. By any means needed, go wherever you have to.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the sports weekend ...
... Brenen Thompson should have been a five-star prospect. There's just too much speed there to ignore.
... Five-star linebacker prospect Anthony Hill is listed at 6-2, 228 pounds in his Rivals bio and he was part of his school's 4X100 relay team that finished second in the state in 5A this weekend with a time of 40.70. That's ridiculous.
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... Luka ... wow
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... Down go the champs! The Bucks learned why you always have to win at home in a game six if you have the chance to close out a series because winning on the road required a borderline miracle. There were no miracles in Boston on Sunday.
... Miami and Boston are the best teams in the East. They deserve each other for seven games.
... Dear Ja Morant, let's leave the lines about "hollows" off of social media. Just a piece of advice.
... The Cincinnati Reds didn't allow a hit on Sunday... and lost. They fell to 9-28. Woof.
... I live in the Greater Houston area and haven't watched a single Astros game all season. That has to change, right?
... There's a part of me that doesn't want to believe in the fool's gold pf the Premier League title so that we can rest up for the Champions League final in 13 days. Hell, with Mo Salah, Virgil Van Dijk and Fabinho all injured, we might not have a choice.
... Arsenal is definitely vomiting on itself in the next week.
No. 9 - The List: Top 2022 TV...
I was listening to a podcast this week when one of the show hosts mentioned that he had already watched or was watching 33 different TV shows this year.
How is that freaking possible?
It got me to thinking about the shows that I've watched so far in 2022 and I decided to rank them. The only rule is that at least one of the episodes had to actually be released in 2022. I'm curious to see what this looks like in December.
Here we go....
Receiving consideration: Moon Knight (Disney), The Book of Boba Fett (HBO), Yellowstone (AMC) and Cobra Kai (Youtube)
10. Bosch: Legacy (Freevee)
We've still got half the season to go, but this feels very much like the Showtime version of the show. The fact that Mimi Rogers has already dropped a 12-letter mf blast kind of warmed my heart.
9. Game Theory (HBO)
Fellow Longhorn Bomani Jones hosts the best sports show on TV.
8. 1883 (AMC)
Half the season was kind of meh, but the other half was really freaking good.
7. We Own This City (HBO)
There's a real chance this climbs into the top 5 by the end of its season. Maybe higher.
6. After Life (Netflix)
It's the Ricky Gervais show that you never knew you needed. Trust me, it's nothing you'll expect.
5. The Staircase (HBO)
There are still four episodes to go, but I can't believe I don't remember this real-life crime story unfolding in real time. How can the world be this weird?
4. Abbott Elementary (ABC)
The best Network comedy since The Office.
3. Tokyo Vice (HBO)
Damn them for only giving us 8 episodes!
2. Winning Time (HBO)
I will stand on a table for this drama focusing on the early 1980s LA Lakers, even if all of those that are portrayed kind of hate it.
1. Better Call Saul (AMC)
It's not a Top 5 all-time show for me, but it's knocking on the door.
No. 10 - And Finally ...
I'll be 46 on Monday. The 18-year old me believes I'm old. The 45-year old version of me believes that I can't be a day over 42. How did this happen?
Ozark is only 4 seasons
Also wouldn’t the 2020 class be Hermans last? In your first paragraph you called it his final class but he also signed and enrolled the 2020 class, 2021 would be the transition class and 2020 is the final
that 2019 class was labeled with 2018 as the classes to return Texas back to the top of the conference. Losing gabe Floyd was a huge blow and May have been starting his senior season this year. Excellent breakdown and column
The recruiting review of the 2019 class just confirms my reasoning in NOT living and dying with recruiting anymore. I just don't care at all who we offer. I do care who we sign but not near as much as I used to. For decades I obsessed over recruiting, but stopped a few years back. Example. In the last 10 years Baylor has zero Top 20 recruiting classes and and only three classes ranked in the Top 30 (29, 26 and 25). Yet Ruhl and Aranda each won Big 12 titles recently. I believe Baylor had 5 players drafted in the recent NFL draft, most in the state, even more than the ag school. Coaching matters a lot more than recruiting in my opinion.
Texas' recruiting classes have been vastly overrated because they have been full of four stars that aren't really more valuable than the players Baylor has signed.
I spent a lot of time reading about 2019 recruits in 2018 . I will be looking for a new hobby , or start really studying players in the portal . No wonder they sucked last yr . Tyler Johnson was biggest disappointment , considering o line issues have hampered this team for yrs .
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The former staff had high hopes for him…wonder what the disconnect was between his high school play transitioning into college? It’s not like he was undersized…
Yep. Too many at this point overcooking the impact of the true frosh OL THIS season. Didn't help none of the top incoming frosh OL went through spring practice.
Thinking about the Herman transition to Sark ...
A 7 - 3 season (plus a bowl game blowout win) with the three losses by 13 total points got Herman fired. Kansas was cancelled for COVID, a W for Herman. Ingram doesn't fumble on the goal line and TCU is a W. That is 9 - 2 and probably a major bowl bid for Sam's senior season.
Sark shows up and says it isn't a rebuild because the team lost 3 games by a total of 13 points. A 5 - 7 season followed by a 40%+ roster turnover and somehow this is Herman's fault?
Strong trashed Mack's kids, Herman trashed Strong's kids and now Sark has trashed Herman's kids. Rinse and repeat.
A 7 - 3 season (plus a bowl game blowout win) with the three losses by 13 total points got Herman fired. Kansas was cancelled for COVID, a W for Herman. Ingram doesn't fumble on the goal line and TCU is a W. That is 9 - 2 and probably a major bowl bid for Sam's senior season.
Sark shows up and says it isn't a rebuild because the team lost 3 games by a total of 13 points. A 5 - 7 season followed by a 40%+ roster turnover and somehow this is Herman's fault?
Strong trashed Mack's kids, Herman trashed Strong's kids and now Sark has trashed Herman's kids. Rinse and repeat.
