I didn't expect this team to beat USC. I didn't think it would be better than Oklahoma State. Or play in the Big 12 title game.
What I thought about this team was three things ...
1. It would beat Maryland.
2. It would lose two of three against USC, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.
3. It would improve as the season went along and that by the end of the season, it would be playing its best brand of football, which would allow it to win four of its final five games.
Well, I was wrong about No. 1 and No. 2, yet it feels like the thing I was most wrong about is No. 3.
I thought the thing we'd be saying about this team in November is that none of the teams that caught it in September or early October would want a piece of the Longhorns late in the year.
Oops.
The sign of a well-coached team is constant improvement throughout the season, especially with a young team, but the reality of the 2017 season is that this team isn't making the type of progress that would begin to remotely suggest that Texas is peaking at the end of the season.
Weirdly, this team could still end up winning four of its final five games, with two games left to play, which means that as wrong as I've been, I might end up being right about the thing I feel I was most wrong about.
Nothing feels more 2017 than that.
No. 2 – Let's just get this out of the way ...
Starting Sam Ehlinger on Saturday gives Texas its best chance of leaving Morgantown with a W.
Shane Buechele had a chance to make Ehlinger's performances against Kansas State and Oklahoma a bit of a distant memory, but that is not what has happened in the last three weeks.
No. 3 – A quick thought on attrition ...
One of the things that's been coming out of the grapevine in the last couple weeks is the subject of departures from the program once the season ends.
I'm not going to overwhelm you guys with conversation on the subject of attrition because I've done that several times already this year. I just want to remind everyone of one little stat:
Not including this year's freshman class, 72 of the last 157 players that the Longhorns have signed since 2010 have left the program early, a product of attrition. That's essentially three full recruiting classes worth of departures ... or every other one, essentially.
No one would argue that zero attrition is either helpful, healthy or possible, but the task in front of Tom Herman is to stop the outright flood of departures that sees the program losing double-digit numbers each season. When you wonder each season why the program has 10 seniors on the roster, it's not rocket science. Instead of 40+ transfers in every four-year cycle (which is what Texas has averaged for more than a decade),the number probably needs to be in the 25-30 range.
Texas won't be able to sustain any kind of success until it can stop the bleeding out in the talent base.
Just something to keep in mind heading into the off-season.
No. 4 - The Full Breakdown ...
Here's an updated look at the Texas attrition numbers over the course of the last four years:
2014 (8/15/13-8/14/14)
(13) Aaron Benson (transfer), Joe Bergeron (transfer), Josh Cochran (injuries), Chevoski Collins (dismissed), Deoundrei Davis (transfer), Bryant Jackson (medical), Montrell Meander (dismissed), Chet Moss (dismissed), Jalen Overstreet (dismissed), Kendall Sanders (dismissed), Leroy Scott (dismissed), Kevin Shorter (injuries) and Kendall Thompson (injuries)
2015 (8/15/14-8/14/15)
(11) David Ash (injuries), Duke Catalon (transfer), Cecil Cherry (transfer), Kennedy Estelle (dismissed), Rami Hammad (transfer), Cameron Hampton (transfer), Desmond Harrison (dismissed), Darius James (transfer), M.J. McFarland (transfer), Miles Onyegbule (injuries) and Curtis Riser (transfer)
2016 (8/15/15-8/14/16)
(8) Adrian Colbert (transfer), Bryson Echols (transfer), DeAndre McNeal (transfer), Ryan Newsome (transfer), Derick Roberson (transfer), Jermaine Roberts (transfer), Jake Raulerson (transfer) and Dalton Santos (transfer)
2017 (8/15/16-8/14/17)
(10) Peyton Aucoin (transfer), Jean Delance (transfer), Jordan Elliott (transfer), Erick Fowler (transfer), Brandon Hodges (transfer), Erik Huhn (transfer), Kai Locksley (transfer), Jake Oliver (graduated), Marcel Southall (transfer) and Blake Whiteley (transfer)
Imagine an offensive line that had the likes of Estelle, Hammad, James, Raulerson, Delance and Hodges as options in the line-up.
No. 5 – The elephant in the room ...
The Longhorns had a number of big-time national prospects on hand this weekend in recruiting, including a number of player whose presence would enhance the current 2018 recruiting class.
No matter how well the coaches recruit, no matter how much fun the kids might have on their visits ... the kids that visited will remember this when they go home.
No. 6- Two words for the Texas basketball team ...
Hot damn.
I'm not going to go overboard with hyperbole because we've certainly done that before with this program.
H-o-w-e-v-e-r ...
That was a hell of a first impression. I want to see more of Mo Bamba. I want to see more of Matt Coleman. I want to see more of Dylan Osetkowski.
I want to see more of this.
Bring on New Hampshire on Tuesday. I'm in.
No. 7 – Buy or Sell …
BUY or SELL: My high level of disgust is appropriate?
(Buy) The program is essentially Dirk Diggler in a parking lot in the 1980s, sometime after Little Bill commits a murder-suicide on New Year's Eve and before the last scene when he's about to make his return to porn. You have every right to be disgusted.
BUY or SELL:This year’s team beats last year's team by two touchdowns or more?
(Sell) It probably wins by a touchdown. The question you'd have to ask is whether this year's offense could take advantage of the easier defense it would be facing. Hard to argue that it would at this point.
BUY or SELL: If UT won the MD game the narrative of this season would be noticeably different.
(Sell) Even if we wiped away that 20-point butt-kicking, this would be a team likely headed to 7-5 instead of 6-6. Changing that game doesn't change the uninspired level of play from this team down the home-stretch, does it?
BUY or SELL: The defense feels the impact of losing Holton Hill against WVU and Tech, causing Texas to lose both games?
(Sell) Texas is going to beat Texas Tech.
BUY or SELL: Ton Herman’s tenure at Texas will ultimately be judged by his ability to recruit offensive linemen in the next two recruiting cycles?
(Sell) Tom Herman is going to be judged by his ability to coach the quarterbacks and linemen he currently has in this program. The incoming prospects from the next two classes won't likely make a monster impact in the next two years, at least not if history is an indicator.
BUY or SELL: Reading OB is a beating, win or lose?
(Sell) Let's cut Texas fans some slack. I haven't seen any couches set on fire in the streets. You don't hear horror stories about the way the fans treat visiting fans. Do they get a little ugly on message boards? Yes. However, that's basically every college football fan base, especially those that are on a decade-long cannonball into an empty pool.
BUY or SELL: Texas finishes with 7/8 wins, signs a top-5 class and has momentum going into a 2018 winnable Big 12 that is losing A TON of starting QBs?
(Sell) I think Texas might finish with seven wins if it wins the bowl game, but I don't see a top-five finish in recruiting and I don't know where all the momentum is coming from. Also, I feel like we leave every year saying the Big 12 is there for the taking the following year, so let's stop assuming that will be the case.
BUY or SELL: Connor Williams is a Longhorn next year?
(Sell) All the buzz behind the scenes is that he's out of here.
BUY or SELL: Kansas is the worst team in the past 25 years to score 27 points at DKR?
(Buy) At first, I thought this question was full of hyperbole, but it turns out that it was hard to find a game that compares. The 1998 Longhorns let a 3-8 New Mexico State team score 36 points and a 3-8 Iowa State team score 33 points. I went all the back to 1990 and couldn't find any other games that featured a team with less than three wins scoring that many points at DKR.
No. 8 – If I had a vote that mattered ...
1. Alabama
2. Miami
3. Oklahoma
4. Clemson
5. Wisconsin
6. Georgia
7. Auburn
8. Ohio State
9. Notre Dame
10. USC
No. 9 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
* Baker Mayfield is not only going to win the Heisman Trophy, he's going to be remembered as the best of the Oklahoma Heisman winners. What a player!
* Miami has won me over in the last two weekends. My goodness, that was total domination against Notre Dame. Impressive.
* I've been skeptical of Georgia and Notre Dame all year and on Saturday they proved my skepticism to be on point. Goodness gracious, both were beaten like they stole something out of their mom's purse.
* The sign of a well-coached team is steady improvement throughout the season. I feel like that's the definition of the Stanford Cardinal under David Shaw.
* Florida State is 3-6 this season. I can't believe I just typed those words.
* The rebirth of Manny Diaz might be the most underrated story of the 2017 season. Good for him. That's an easy guy to root for.
* I'm not saying that the season ended for the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, but it sure felt like it.
* Damn, the Rams are fun to watch. I'm starting to believe.
* The Eagles are going to have the division won by Thanksgiving.
* I thought the Saints were headed for disaster after week one. To see them at 7-2, my goodness, Drew Brees and Sean Payton have restored their places in the football universe once again. That was a flat ass-kicking they handed to a decent Buffalo team.
* Chaz Green will see Adrian Clayborn in his nightmares for the rest of his life.
* Ignore pretty much everything you think you see in the NBA in November. Say it 100 times if you need to.
* It might just be that Ben Simmons was worth tanking for. I know Astros fans have to feel that way when they watch Carlos Correa.
* I love Bill Walton.
No. 10 – And Finally…
Shout out to the McCallum Knights from a Class of 1994 alum. It's one thing to go 10-0 in the regular season for the first time in 51 years and it's another to do so with the following notches on the belt:
Anderson W 48-28
Austin High W 56-13
Travis W 72-0
Reagan W 61-0
As someone that went 3-6-1 in his senior season and beat none of those teams along the way, I see you young Knights!
What I thought about this team was three things ...
1. It would beat Maryland.
2. It would lose two of three against USC, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.
3. It would improve as the season went along and that by the end of the season, it would be playing its best brand of football, which would allow it to win four of its final five games.
Well, I was wrong about No. 1 and No. 2, yet it feels like the thing I was most wrong about is No. 3.
I thought the thing we'd be saying about this team in November is that none of the teams that caught it in September or early October would want a piece of the Longhorns late in the year.
Oops.
The sign of a well-coached team is constant improvement throughout the season, especially with a young team, but the reality of the 2017 season is that this team isn't making the type of progress that would begin to remotely suggest that Texas is peaking at the end of the season.
Weirdly, this team could still end up winning four of its final five games, with two games left to play, which means that as wrong as I've been, I might end up being right about the thing I feel I was most wrong about.
Nothing feels more 2017 than that.
No. 2 – Let's just get this out of the way ...
Starting Sam Ehlinger on Saturday gives Texas its best chance of leaving Morgantown with a W.
Shane Buechele had a chance to make Ehlinger's performances against Kansas State and Oklahoma a bit of a distant memory, but that is not what has happened in the last three weeks.
No. 3 – A quick thought on attrition ...
One of the things that's been coming out of the grapevine in the last couple weeks is the subject of departures from the program once the season ends.
I'm not going to overwhelm you guys with conversation on the subject of attrition because I've done that several times already this year. I just want to remind everyone of one little stat:
Not including this year's freshman class, 72 of the last 157 players that the Longhorns have signed since 2010 have left the program early, a product of attrition. That's essentially three full recruiting classes worth of departures ... or every other one, essentially.
No one would argue that zero attrition is either helpful, healthy or possible, but the task in front of Tom Herman is to stop the outright flood of departures that sees the program losing double-digit numbers each season. When you wonder each season why the program has 10 seniors on the roster, it's not rocket science. Instead of 40+ transfers in every four-year cycle (which is what Texas has averaged for more than a decade),the number probably needs to be in the 25-30 range.
Texas won't be able to sustain any kind of success until it can stop the bleeding out in the talent base.
Just something to keep in mind heading into the off-season.
No. 4 - The Full Breakdown ...
Here's an updated look at the Texas attrition numbers over the course of the last four years:
2014 (8/15/13-8/14/14)
(13) Aaron Benson (transfer), Joe Bergeron (transfer), Josh Cochran (injuries), Chevoski Collins (dismissed), Deoundrei Davis (transfer), Bryant Jackson (medical), Montrell Meander (dismissed), Chet Moss (dismissed), Jalen Overstreet (dismissed), Kendall Sanders (dismissed), Leroy Scott (dismissed), Kevin Shorter (injuries) and Kendall Thompson (injuries)
2015 (8/15/14-8/14/15)
(11) David Ash (injuries), Duke Catalon (transfer), Cecil Cherry (transfer), Kennedy Estelle (dismissed), Rami Hammad (transfer), Cameron Hampton (transfer), Desmond Harrison (dismissed), Darius James (transfer), M.J. McFarland (transfer), Miles Onyegbule (injuries) and Curtis Riser (transfer)
2016 (8/15/15-8/14/16)
(8) Adrian Colbert (transfer), Bryson Echols (transfer), DeAndre McNeal (transfer), Ryan Newsome (transfer), Derick Roberson (transfer), Jermaine Roberts (transfer), Jake Raulerson (transfer) and Dalton Santos (transfer)
2017 (8/15/16-8/14/17)
(10) Peyton Aucoin (transfer), Jean Delance (transfer), Jordan Elliott (transfer), Erick Fowler (transfer), Brandon Hodges (transfer), Erik Huhn (transfer), Kai Locksley (transfer), Jake Oliver (graduated), Marcel Southall (transfer) and Blake Whiteley (transfer)
Imagine an offensive line that had the likes of Estelle, Hammad, James, Raulerson, Delance and Hodges as options in the line-up.
No. 5 – The elephant in the room ...
The Longhorns had a number of big-time national prospects on hand this weekend in recruiting, including a number of player whose presence would enhance the current 2018 recruiting class.
No matter how well the coaches recruit, no matter how much fun the kids might have on their visits ... the kids that visited will remember this when they go home.
No. 6- Two words for the Texas basketball team ...
Hot damn.
I'm not going to go overboard with hyperbole because we've certainly done that before with this program.
H-o-w-e-v-e-r ...
That was a hell of a first impression. I want to see more of Mo Bamba. I want to see more of Matt Coleman. I want to see more of Dylan Osetkowski.
I want to see more of this.
Bring on New Hampshire on Tuesday. I'm in.
No. 7 – Buy or Sell …
BUY or SELL: My high level of disgust is appropriate?
(Buy) The program is essentially Dirk Diggler in a parking lot in the 1980s, sometime after Little Bill commits a murder-suicide on New Year's Eve and before the last scene when he's about to make his return to porn. You have every right to be disgusted.
BUY or SELL:This year’s team beats last year's team by two touchdowns or more?
(Sell) It probably wins by a touchdown. The question you'd have to ask is whether this year's offense could take advantage of the easier defense it would be facing. Hard to argue that it would at this point.
BUY or SELL: If UT won the MD game the narrative of this season would be noticeably different.
(Sell) Even if we wiped away that 20-point butt-kicking, this would be a team likely headed to 7-5 instead of 6-6. Changing that game doesn't change the uninspired level of play from this team down the home-stretch, does it?
BUY or SELL: The defense feels the impact of losing Holton Hill against WVU and Tech, causing Texas to lose both games?
(Sell) Texas is going to beat Texas Tech.
BUY or SELL: Ton Herman’s tenure at Texas will ultimately be judged by his ability to recruit offensive linemen in the next two recruiting cycles?
(Sell) Tom Herman is going to be judged by his ability to coach the quarterbacks and linemen he currently has in this program. The incoming prospects from the next two classes won't likely make a monster impact in the next two years, at least not if history is an indicator.
BUY or SELL: Reading OB is a beating, win or lose?
(Sell) Let's cut Texas fans some slack. I haven't seen any couches set on fire in the streets. You don't hear horror stories about the way the fans treat visiting fans. Do they get a little ugly on message boards? Yes. However, that's basically every college football fan base, especially those that are on a decade-long cannonball into an empty pool.
BUY or SELL: Texas finishes with 7/8 wins, signs a top-5 class and has momentum going into a 2018 winnable Big 12 that is losing A TON of starting QBs?
(Sell) I think Texas might finish with seven wins if it wins the bowl game, but I don't see a top-five finish in recruiting and I don't know where all the momentum is coming from. Also, I feel like we leave every year saying the Big 12 is there for the taking the following year, so let's stop assuming that will be the case.
BUY or SELL: Connor Williams is a Longhorn next year?
(Sell) All the buzz behind the scenes is that he's out of here.
BUY or SELL: Kansas is the worst team in the past 25 years to score 27 points at DKR?
(Buy) At first, I thought this question was full of hyperbole, but it turns out that it was hard to find a game that compares. The 1998 Longhorns let a 3-8 New Mexico State team score 36 points and a 3-8 Iowa State team score 33 points. I went all the back to 1990 and couldn't find any other games that featured a team with less than three wins scoring that many points at DKR.
No. 8 – If I had a vote that mattered ...
1. Alabama
2. Miami
3. Oklahoma
4. Clemson
5. Wisconsin
6. Georgia
7. Auburn
8. Ohio State
9. Notre Dame
10. USC
No. 9 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
* Baker Mayfield is not only going to win the Heisman Trophy, he's going to be remembered as the best of the Oklahoma Heisman winners. What a player!
* Miami has won me over in the last two weekends. My goodness, that was total domination against Notre Dame. Impressive.
* I've been skeptical of Georgia and Notre Dame all year and on Saturday they proved my skepticism to be on point. Goodness gracious, both were beaten like they stole something out of their mom's purse.
* The sign of a well-coached team is steady improvement throughout the season. I feel like that's the definition of the Stanford Cardinal under David Shaw.
* Florida State is 3-6 this season. I can't believe I just typed those words.
* The rebirth of Manny Diaz might be the most underrated story of the 2017 season. Good for him. That's an easy guy to root for.
* I'm not saying that the season ended for the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, but it sure felt like it.
* Damn, the Rams are fun to watch. I'm starting to believe.
* The Eagles are going to have the division won by Thanksgiving.
* I thought the Saints were headed for disaster after week one. To see them at 7-2, my goodness, Drew Brees and Sean Payton have restored their places in the football universe once again. That was a flat ass-kicking they handed to a decent Buffalo team.
* Chaz Green will see Adrian Clayborn in his nightmares for the rest of his life.
* Ignore pretty much everything you think you see in the NBA in November. Say it 100 times if you need to.
* It might just be that Ben Simmons was worth tanking for. I know Astros fans have to feel that way when they watch Carlos Correa.
* I love Bill Walton.
No. 10 – And Finally…
Shout out to the McCallum Knights from a Class of 1994 alum. It's one thing to go 10-0 in the regular season for the first time in 51 years and it's another to do so with the following notches on the belt:
Anderson W 48-28
Austin High W 56-13
Travis W 72-0
Reagan W 61-0
As someone that went 3-6-1 in his senior season and beat none of those teams along the way, I see you young Knights!
