If Quinn Ewers is anywhere close to 100 percent on Saturday night in College Station, the Texas Longhorns will beat Texas A&M and advance to next week's SEC Championship game in their first season in the league.
If Ewers isn't at 100 percent and is anywhere close to being as limited as he was against Kentucky on Saturday, the game is going to get trickier than Keyser Soze at his local police Christmas party.
Big ifs.
Even before @Anwar Richardson first reported via sources with knowledge of the MRI results that Ewers has a "mild" sprained ankle and is expected to play against the Aggies, I was pretty convinced that the question of Ewers playing in College Station was easy to answer. He's going to play. Duh.
Whether he'll be able to move around and function better than he did against Kentucky (and for how long) remains to be seen, but it's a pretty major concern when you consider that the Texas passing attack died in the second half (14 total passing yards) upon Ewers' hurting the ankle.
No one can be stunned that the Texas season hangs in the balance of Ewers' availability. Along with a hell of a lot of wins, it's kind of the story of his career. In coming back in week six, a deep run into the playoffs was going to require Ewers to stay healthy for nine or 10 games, which felt like an uncertain ask when it was made back in early October.
So, here we are. Fingers crossed.
Some good news from the weekend is that the losses of Alabama and Ole Miss will likely leave the Longhorns in the college football playoffs, even if the worst-case scenario occurs on Saturday. Steve Sarkisian's team might have both feet into the playoff bracket, which isn't something you could quite say 36 hours ago.
Even better news than that is the reality that the Longhorns are a much better football team than A&M on paper. The Texas defense matches up incredibly well with the A&M offense. Under normal circumstances, this Texas offense would put up 30 points and it would be up to A&M to find a way to score that many against a defense that has given up more than 17 points only twice this season. The same Texas defense has given up more than 24 points only once all year.
All Texas needs is for Ewers to be somewhere between good and very good. That'll get it done. Hell, it might be enough to get it done against Georgia in the week that would follow. Texas doesn't need Ewers to be great in order to win, as much as it simply needs him to not be poor.
The ankle injury caused the passing game to be poor in the second half. Fourteen yards kind of poor.
Thankfully, the running game picked up the slack. Here's hoping on Saturday that it isn't asked to carry a one-sided amount against the Aggies.
In Quinn's ankle, we must trust.
No. 2 - Can Barron pull it off?
One of the interesting things about the four finalists for the Bronko Nagurski trophy is that there are two defensive ends (South Carolina's Kyle Kennard and Penn State's Abdul Carter), a defensive tackle (Michigan's Mason Graham) and a defensive back (Jahdae Barron) among the finalists. No linebackers.
Here's a breakdown of all four finalists.
Texas CB Jahdae Barron
Season stats: 41 tackles, 4 interceptions, 8 pass break-ups, 2 tackles for loss, 1 sack and 1 fumble recovery
This weekend: 3 tackles
PFF Grades:
South Carolina Edge Kyle Kennard
Season stats: 28 tackles, 15.5 tackles for loss, 11.5 sacks, 10 quarterback hits, 3 forced fumbles and 2 fumble recoveries
This weekend: 3 tackles, 1 sack, 1 tackle for loss and a quarterback hit in a win over Woffard.
PFF Grades:
Penn State Edge Abdul Carter
Season stats: 48 tackles, 17.5 tackles for loss, 8.0 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, 2 forced fumbles and 0 fumble recoveries
This weekend: 3 tackles and a quarterback hit.
PFF Grades:
Michigan DT Mason Graham
Season stats: 38 tackles, 7.0 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks and 3 quarterback hits
This weekend: 2 tackles
PFF Grades:
No. 3 - Talking Scholarships ...
With the commitment of Joseph Mbatchou and the decisions by Quinn Ewers, Michael Taaffe and Max Merril to participate on Senior Day on Saturday, it was time to update the Scholarship Board and discuss some of the recent developments.
(Note: If Ewers and Taaffe decide to return, we can always place them back among the juniors, but those decisions to participate on Senior Day as juniors represent a very telling sign about their futures.)
* There's likely going to be a LOT of roster turnover this off-season. Suddenly, you have 21 seniors departing (not including Kelvin Banks or any other underclassmen who decide to turn pro) before any other off-season attrition takes place. Considering most major college programs suffered more than 20+ departures a season ago, the Longhorns should have plenty of scholarship space to attack the Portal. It's not crazy to think that we could see between 35-40 new players in the program next season.
* Bert Auburn is listed as a senior, but he still has a season of eligibility remaining because he played only one game in 2021 and he did not participate in Senior Day activities. It's possible that he'll soon confirm a return for next season and we'll slide him among the 2025 seniors once it is official.
* The junior class (next year's senior class) is already down to 15 before added attrition, but you can expect that the Portal will bring a half dozen or so seniors, which should help provide assurances that they'll be able to take another large class in the 2026 recruiting year.
* The Portal opens on December 9 (the Monday after the CFB playoff field is announced) and it will close on December 28.
No. 4 - Putting Anthony Hill's season into perspective ...
Sophomore Anthony Hill is up to 15.0 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks this season, which rightfully has him in the mix for a spot as a Butkus Award finalist.
Just how productive has he been?
Only three players (Gary Johnson, Emmanuel Acho and Derrick Johnson) have had more than 15 tackles for loss at the linebacker position this century, but none of them had as many sacks as Hill, despite the fact that Hill has played in fewer games than any of the three.
He truly is having an all-time great season at the linebacker position among modern-day linebackers on the 40 Acres.
Here's a look at all of the Texas linebackers this century with 10+ tackles for loss in a season.
* 2023 Jaylan Ford (10 tackles for loss and 1.0 sacks in 14 games)
* 2022 Jaylan Ford (10 tackles for loss and 2.0 sacks in 13 games)
* 2022 DeMarvion Overshown (10 tackles for loss and 4.0 sacks in 13 games)
* 2018 Gary Johnson (16.5 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks in 14 games)
* 2017 Malik Jefferson (10 tackles for loss and 4.0 sacks in 12 games)
* 2014 Jordan Hicks (13 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks in 13 games)
* 2014 Steve Edmond (13 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks in 13 games)
* 2013 Dalton Santos (10 tackles for loss and 0.0 sacks in 13 games)
* 2011 Emmanuel Acho (19 tackles for loss and 3.0 sacks in 13 games))
* 2011 Keenan Robinson (10 tackles for loss and 1.0 sacks in 13 games)
* 2010 Emmanuel Acho (12 tackles for loss and 3.0 sacks in 11 games)
* 2009 Rodderick Muckelroy (11 tackles for loss and 2.0 sacks in 13 games)
* 2009 Emmanuel Acho (10 tackles for loss and 2.0 sacks in 14 games)
* 2006 Rashad Bobino (13 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks in 13 games)
* 2005 Aaron Harris (12 tackles for loss and 4.0 sacks in 13 games)
* 2005 Robert Killebrew (10 tackles for loss and 4.0 sacks in 13 games)
* 2004 Derrick Johnson (19 tackles for loss and 2.0 sacks in 12 games)
* 2004 Aaron Harris (10 tackles for loss and 2.0 sacks in 12 games)
* 2003 Derrick Johnson (20 tackles for loss and 2.0 sacks in 13 games)
* 2002 Derrick Johnson (13 tackles for loss and 2.0 sacks in 13 games)
* 2001 Derrick Johnson (17 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks in 12 games)
* 2001 D.D. Lewis (10 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks in 12 games)
* 2000 D.D. Lewis (15 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks in 11 games)
No. 5 - Scattershooting (Burnt-Orange Style...) ... ...
... I don't care what anyone says, Ewers should have been replaced in the third quarter in my estimation when it became clear just how limited he was in the passing game. The game only got closer in the second half because the move wasn't made.
... Set your watch on the following. Steve Sarkisian will treat the Ewers injury pretty vaguely. He'll probably list him as questionable and say they won't know until later in the week whether he'll play.
... I think we all expect that Isaiah Bond will turn pro after the season, but a part of me has been wondering if Matthew Golden might kick that idea around as well.
... Speaking of Bond, that ankle injury that he's been carrying since the OU game just won't go away. I'm not sure that Texas can beat Georgia without him, if Texas gets a rematch.
... Malik Muhammad is having a very underrated season. Opposing quarterbacks know what's up.
... Maurice Gordon had 16 tackles for loss, 7.5 sacks and 15 quarterback hits as a senior in 2001. I remember him having a good season, but those numbers are ridiculous. To put that in some perspective, Casey Hampton had 18 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks and 22 quarterback hits the previous season. Byron Murphy had 8.5 tackles for loss and 5 sacks last season. He didn't even earn honorable mention all-Big 12 honors? Most underrated season in Texas history?
No. 6 - If I had a vote that mattered ...
1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Notre Dame
5. Penn State
6. Georgia
7. Tennessee
8. Miami
9. SMU
10. Indiana
Heisman Trophy
1. WR/CB Travis Hunter (Colorado)
2. RB Ashton Jeanty (Boise State)
3. QB Will Howard (Ohio State)
4. DE Abdul Carter (Penn State)
5. CB Jahdae Barron (Texas)
No. 7 - This and that ...
... Anyone feel like they have a strong feel for the Texas men's basketball team yet? There's plenty of time for things to come together, but I don't see a Sweet 16 team yet. We'll learn a little more in two weeks when UConn comes to the Moody Center and then probably not anything else from any game they play through the end of December. Actually, I take that back ... next Wednesday's game at NC State (No. 53 in the current KenPom rankings) will probably teach us something about the team, even if it's subtle.
... It's early but Tre Johnson leads the SEC in scoring at 21.2 points per game. Johnson's 46.3% shooting from downtown ranks seventh in the SEC.
... I'm not sure what to make out of Angela Kelly and the Texas Soccer program. On one hand, this might have been the best season in her dozen years on the job. On the other hand, she's never made it past the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament. What represents success for UT soccer? Because it doesn't feel like the bar is as high with this sport as every other sport on the 40 Acres.
... Wednesday is a big day for Texas volleyball. The Longhorns need Missouri to beat Kentucky to have a chance of grabbing a share of the SEC regular-season title. It's maddening that the season has unfolded the way it has. Texas is undefeated on the road in conference play, but has three losses at home? 🤷♂️
... The same Oklahoma volleyball team that beat Texas in Austin and likely cost the Longhorns the conference title lost to the Longhorns in a three-game sweep on Friday night.
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Buy) Yes, I 100-percent believe so.
(Buy) Yes.
(Sell) Uhhh ...
(Sell) Uhhhh ...
(Sell) Underestimated what, exactly? One of the things that Baxter needed to do this season was prove that he was a plus-runner at this level. Might that have happened? Sure. Is that a certainty? Far from it. I tend to think more people overcook the grits than not.
(Sell) Uhhhhh...
(Sell) Eighty-fiv ... errrrr ... never mind. I don't know how to begin to quantify his status.
(Sell) What is very low? Tre Johnson didn't come to Austin for free.
(Buy) Probably. What would the rival atmosphere even be? Arkansas in 2021?
(Buy) Correct.
(Buy) The bottom line is the bottom line. Texas will be a heavy favorite. It has the most great players.
(Buy) He is the starter in the spring. The question is whether a transfer will come in to compete with him.
(Buy) He's played in 4 games this season and he certainly looks headed for a redshirt, but I wouldn't be quick to assume he'll be back in Austin. If he wasn't good enough this year, he just might not be good enough... period. Maybe the next Trill Carter.
(Buy) I think so. It's a great question and you can make a case the other way, but I think there's simply more to gain than there is to lose.
No. 9 – Scattershooting all over the place …
... If the win over Alabama means that OU will keep Brent Venables around, then that was a win for the entire SEC on Saturday.
... Lane Kiffin is going to have nightmares about that Florida game throughout the off-season.
... Yo, Jalen Milroe ... what the hell was THAT? Good grief ...
... DeMarvion Overshown now knows the feeling of going to DC and beating the NFL team that lives there. It's part of being a Dallas Cowboy. Even in our worst seasons, we find a way to beat Washington. Shout out to Paul Palmer.
... This season has sucked, but this spin move is something I'll always cherish.
... Will Levis was sacked eight times and still outplayed CJ Stroud in Houston? And Tony Pollard outrushed Joe Mixon by nearly 100 yards? Those were real things? I guess so. Woof.
... Jonathon Brooks got his first two NFL carries on Sunday against the world champion Chiefs, picking up 7 yards in the process. Baby steps.
... Get better, Ja'Tavion Sanders. Seeing Sanders got hurt on Sunday had me wondering how Bijan Robinson is still with us after that near neck-breaking play against Texas Tech.
... Premier League Musings: Just keep your head down, Reds, and keep gobbling up three points. If Mo Salah can keep this form going, we've got a chance to win everything. Gotta find a way to beat City next Sunday. They won't come back from being 11 down. Yo, Spurs... I didn't know you had that in you. Well done, lands. New coach, same United. Did the clock strike midnight on Forest? Although the pack between 2nd and 10th is only 5 points, it kind of feels like Liverpool, Man City, Chelsea and Arsenal are going to be THE top four, but Spurs are sitting there with a +14 differential and maybe I am underrating them?
... The UCLA women's hoops team beat the hell out of South Carolina on Sunday. Led by 20+ and won 77-62. Ok, then...
... Movie Review: Emilia Perez (B+) - Oh, this won't be everyone's cup of tea, but I was surely entertained, even if I'll never understand what the musical numbers were supposed to add to a wild-ass story that really required me to suspend some belief. Karla Sofia Gascon and Zoe Saldona are both excellent and deserving of Oscar nominations. Although I could see the ending coming from a mile away, there's no question that this is one of the best movies I've seen this season.
... Movie Review: Blitz (B) - Am I being too harsh of a grader? It's very good, but not nearly as good as Emilia Perez. It's always kind of a strange movie when the best part of a very serious movie is a performance from a kid. Elliott Hefferman completely outshines Saoirse Ronan, which says something about what the kid does and what the script doesn't allow for Ronan to do. Still, I'm a sucker for a World War II movie and this one takes a look at a piece from the UK perspective. Check it out on Apple+. It's definitely worth a watch.
No. 10 – The List: Toni Price
A little piece of my soul died on Saturday morning when I learned that Austin legend Toni Price had passed away at the age of 63.
Immediately, I thought of my mom. I also thought on an ex-girlfriend of mine that had sent me pictures of her attending a Price show earlier in the year.
Immediately, I'm haunted by the fact that I didn't see her in concert in recent years and never will again. I'm full of regret, yet thankful that I was able to see her live on the occasions when I did.
Honestly, it's not just a piece of my soul that died on Saturday, but it's a piece of Austin's soul. Price represented a time in the city that will never return. There will never be anything like the Hippie Hour at the Continental Club ever again. For those that knew what that meant, be thankful you lived it. For those that didn't, you're just never going to know.
Although I did Price's Top 10 earlier this year, there's no other Top 10 that will do this weekend. In honor of the Queen of Austin music, here's is the Top 10 all over again.
Last five songs out: Boozy Blues, Like Cats and Dogs, Remember Me, Something in the
Water and A West Texas Lullaby
10. Tumbleweed (Youtube)
Price pretty much took over the Austin scene when she released Hey back in 1993 and this was the song that won Record of the Year honors from the Austin Music Awards. More than anything else, this song seems incredibly personal to her and when she would perform with Champ Hood on this number at Tuesday Night Hippy Hour, it was pure magic. RIP Champ.
9. Hey (Spotify)
I'm pretty sure that listening to this song on KGSR during in my senior year in high school was my introduction to Price. The perfect windows-down, music-up summer song. It's the kind of number that can pull you out of a bad mood.
8. Misty Moonlight (Spotify)
This one is a personal favorite and the first song from Price that really grabbed ahold of my heart.
7. Daylight (Spotify)
It's hard to catch Toni in a particular vibe because she's like a butterfly popping in and out of sound, but when she wants to channel her inner-Stevie, she can get down and dirty with the blues.
6. Something (Spotify)
I had to keep myself from listing the entire Hey album on the list, but there's no question that this song was not only going to be on the list, but inside the top five. It's just an incredibly lovely, simple song.
5. One of These Lonely Days (Spotify)
The best song off of her Born to be Blue album from 2003, the beauty and softness of the despair she delivers in this song is just remarkable.
4. Bluebird (Youtube)
One of her absolute signature songs. Some will be mad that it's not ranked even higher.
3. Just to Hear Your Voice (Youtube)
One of the best songs from her debut album Swim Away, this one focuses on someone that loves a person so much that she calls his phone at the same time every day just to hear the voice on the answering machine.
2. Freeway (Spotify)
I love this song so much that I had it in the No. 1 slot for 47 of the 48 hours I worked on the project, but in the end, it's one of two songs that just explode from Toni's soul and I decided to rank it as 1b on the list.
1. Richest One (Youtube)
There's a place that Toni goes to in this song that's just different than the rest of her songs, which is saying something. The final 2 ½ minutes of the song is pure greatness. This is one of the songs that separates her from the mortals.
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You’re a lot more confident than me on Texas ability to beat A&M than I am. Even w Quinn.
