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Recruiting Thread 2018

From Burton @ 247 on Attrition:

With Peyton Aucoin, Jordan Elliott and Marcel Southall already out the door and reports of Erick Fowler next in line, it makes you wonder just how much more attrition from the class of 2016 that might be on the way. Texas signed 28 players in that class. So four isn't really all that much attrition given the overall size of the class. But could there be more in the future? Most certainly. Here are the attrition numbers from the three signing classes prior to the 2016 group.

2015 - 30 signees - 7 attrition (two did not qualify academically, one opted not to enroll)
2014 - 23 signees - 6 attrition (one did not qualify academically)
2013 - 15 signees - 8 attrition

That's right at a 30% attrition rate overall.

**

The University still has not made an official announcement on the status of Fowler. So it's hard to count him in the official numbers just yet. But thus far, here are the numbers from the 2016 class: 28 signees - 3 attrition

Add Fowler to that group, and it's still just out of every seven signees (or 14%). That's a far cry from the class of 2013, which saw more than half of its class fail to finish their eligibility in Austin, and still well below the 30% average. So the numbers tell us that, even if Fowler indeed leaves, there are still likely more to come. It should also be noted that the 2014 and 2015 classes are yet to graduate, so there could be even more attrition in those classes, although they will likely be light in comparison to what is still likely to come for the 2016 class.

**

I checked the attrition numbers on a couple of other schools just to see how Texas compares to others, and what kind of impact multiple coaching changes may have had.

TCU

2016 -- 22 -- 4
2015 -- 21 -- 5
2014 -- 26 -- 11
2013 -- 23 -- 10

32.6% attrition rate

Alabama

2016 -- 24 -- 2
2015 -- 24 -- 7
2014 -- 26 -- 2
2013 -- 26 -- 9

20% attrition

Take a look at the Alabama class of 2014. The class has lost only two signees thus far. Outside of that single class, Alabama's rate would be similar to that of Texas, TCU and others.

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I mention all of this because it's something that Mack Brown used to harp on to me come signing day. Mack never wanted to talk about the ones that got away. He only wanted to discuss the ones he had signed. "I don't worry about the ones we lost," Brown said more than once. "At the most, I'll see the kids we lost four times in the next four years. I'm worried about making the most out of the kids we signed because we're gonna see them every day." Mack said it was something that Lou Holtz had once told him and Mack believed it to be the best approach.

**

If the 2016 class ever gets up to the 30% attrition average, it'll mean that somewhere between 8 or 9 (8.4 to be exact) of the 28 pledges will be victims of attrition.
 
Still time left to offer others

Amari committed to FSU as expected.

Here is a look at our big board at the LB position.

Ayodele is probably the best prospect we have a shot at. After that, Deshaun White just posted a top 7 that didn't include us. That said, we haven't even offered him yet. Tajh Brown and Jacob Doddridge are other guys we have been recruiting but have yet to offer.

LB: Expected to take 2
Palaie Gaoteote (NV) 5 star - offered, USC
Teradja Mitchell (Va) 5 star - offered, uncommitted
Ayodele Adeoye (Mo) 4 star - offered, uncommitted
4/25 - Texas offers
5/12 - Texas listed in top 10
6/3 - Plans to unofficially visit Texas

Alston Orji (Tx) 4 star - offered, Vanderbilt
3/4 - Unofficial Visit
Bumper Pool (Tx) 4 star - no offer, Arkansas

Chad Bailey (Tx) 4 star - no offer, uncommitted
Xavier Peters (Oh) 4 star - offered, uncommitted
Amari Gainer (Fl) 4 star - offered, FSU
4/2 - Texas listed in top 6
5/22 - Texas listed in top 4
 
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Per TFB:
Ayodele Adeoye: One of Texas top linebacker targets is out of state prospect, Ayodele Adeoye (St. Louis, MO). The reason isn’t hard to discern. He’s a massive ILB that can get down hill in a hurry.

Ayodele recently released a list of top schools which included Texas. He has made a trip to Texas. I am told that he will make another. In fact, I’m told he will make a return trip to Texas this upcoming weekend. – (Super K)

Team Note | Erick Fowler: As many of you know by now there have been multiple outlets reporting on the departure or imminent departure of Texas LB, Erick Fowler.

I spoke with a source and was told that Fowler was having what the source described as “maturity issues” this spring. However the source also said that Fowler does not want to leave and is seeking a second chance from the staff if possible. The source wasn’t able to comment on whether Fowler would be afforded another chance or if the staff was even in a position to do so. But the source made it clear that Fowler does not want to transfer and he is making an attempt to stay. Whether it’s too little too late at this point, I do not know. – (Super K)
 
Per 247-
The Texas Longhorns are dealing with attrition. It’s been expected that there would be a few players who dropped off the roster, but a couple of the names on their way out of the program might have come as a surprise to a portion of the burnt orange faithful. To recap, here’s what I’ve gathered over the last week or so on why Marcel Southall, Jordan Elliott and Erick Fowler (reportedly) will all be playing football elsewhere in 2017:

-- Southall’s departure was all about academics. Multiple sources have confirmed to Horns247 that once Southall was forced to sit out for most of the spring to take care of his grades the clock was ticking on his time in the program.

-- There’s been a couple of differing opinions on why Elliott decided to transfer to Missouri. The common theme and something that was reiterated by a source with knowledge of the situation is that Elliott just wasn’t on the same page with Tom Herman. While some members of the coaching staff were said to be looking for ways to prevent Elliott from transferring and hoping he’d stick it out, the source said Elliott’s departure boiled down to the former U.S. Army All-American Bowl being unable to fall in line when it came to how Herman chose to motivate him. The staff knows Elliott is an extremely talented player, the source told me, but it became apparent over time that it would be best for both parties to go their separate ways and for Elliott to get a fresh start somewhere else.

-- The situation with Fowler is interesting only because the school still hasn’t said anything official regarding his exit. A source close to Fowler told me that they didn’t feel the issues the former U.S. Army All-American was facing were related to academics. The only thing the source told me beyond that is they were, “hoping they could work things out.” Everything behind the scenes has pointed to it being a matter of when not if Fowler’s exit becomes official. Without going too deep into specifics, Fowler spent a good portion of spring practice in the doghouse due to, as one team source put, being unable to routinely do things asked of him. It should be noted that Fowler and Southall were two players seen wearing crimson t-shirts with “LOAF MACHINE” written across the front during winter workouts. From that standpoint, it hasn’t been a secret that both players have had their issues behind the scenes.

So what else can be expected in terms of attrition? Horns247 has learned that two players, one on offense and one on defense, have been mentioned by name as guys who could be gone by the time the Longhorns get to fall camp. It should be noted that the name of the defensive player has come up more often as someone who might not be long for the program.

As of right now, if Jamari Chisholm, Reese Leitao, and Kendall Moore eventually make it to campus the Longhorns will be at 82 scholarships for the 2017 season. Moore would be among the 12 seniors departing, which along with the three vacant scholarships means the Longhorns can sign a class of 15 in 2018. Obviously, Herman’s first full cycle class is going to be bigger. I know it sounds like a broken record, but when it comes to attrition one should expect the roster, particularly a current junior class that stands at 26 members (including Chisholm), to look a lot different by the time the 2018 signees arrive next summer. (Howe)

***

I spoke with a Texas high school head coach who worked the Texas minicamp on Sunday to get his insights into the way the staff ran their first camp. This coach started off talking about how storms in Austin diverted the plans, but the whole staff adjusted well. “The toughest thing was for the coaches and the players and the parents to all cram into the bubble,” the coach said. “But the staff adjusted on the fly and kept things moving.”

The coach spoke about the efficiency of the Texas support staff and said the magic word that’s been so often associated with Tom Herman since he arrived in Austin. “I know people laugh if you guys overuse the word alignment, but you can really see it at work with this staff,” the coach said. “We were told beforehand what the objectives of the day were, and everyone from the coaches to the girls handing out water had a clear understanding of how to accomplish those things.”

This coach said Herman placed a high importance on reps. He would commonly get on to coaches if their stations were slowing down and players were forced to stand around. “(Herman) made it clear that you don’t get an offer by performing at camp,” the coach said. “He told everyone you get an offer by what you do on Friday night, but you come to camp in order to compete and improve yourself.” This coach is a veteran of the summer camp circuit, and he raved about his experience with Texas. He told me that he plans to work as many Texas camps as possible in the future. (Roach)

***

It’s not hard to see why Caden Sterns is one of the nation’s top safeties. The Texas commit is a long, rangy safety with great versatility and potential. But one trait really separates him from the rest. “His instincts,” said Cibolo Steele head coach David Saenz said. “Just the angles he takes and the instincts he has aren’t really coachable. He plays safety for us and can play a little bit of cornerback. He just has great natural instincts.”

Sterns flipped his commitment from LSU to Texas earlier this month. The move came as a surprise to many, but Saenz believes Sterns made the right call for himself. “Coach (Craig) Naivar and Coach (Jason) Washington recruited this area when they were at Houston, and they’ve done a really good job,” Saenz said. “Caden went up there and liked how they were going to use him in different roles, and that was a huge selling point.” Texas is recruiting Sterns as a pure defensive back that can play anywhere in the secondary, including cornerback.

Sterns will get a chance to showcase his skill set in a similar fashion during his senior year of high school. “We play Cover 2 here, so he’s always asking to get some more work at man-to-man coverage,” Saenz said. “He’s such a great technician that he wants to be great at any kind of coverage we’re in. We’ve had some pretty good ones come through like his brother andErik Huhn, who was a Texas guy, and he’s right up there.” At 6-foot-1, 192 pounds, Sterns is ranked as the No. 4 safety in the country and No. 4 overall prospect in the state, according to 247Sports Composite. (Holland)
 
Per TFB:
Ayodele Adeoye: One of Texas top linebacker targets is out of state prospect, Ayodele Adeoye (St. Louis, MO). The reason isn’t hard to discern. He’s a massive ILB that can get down hill in a hurry.

Ayodele recently released a list of top schools which included Texas. He has made a trip to Texas. I am told that he will make another. In fact, I’m told he will make a return trip to Texas this upcoming weekend. – (Super K)

I edited my post above to reflect the new big board at LB. Some rankings have changed and Ayodele is now listed above Alston Orji. I like our chances with him, the biggest competition is from Illinois. He hasn't even visited his home state Mizzou team. If we can impress him we could fill our ILB spot and be done at the LB spot for the cycle.
 
Two Texas targets committed to TAMU today, DE Max Wright and S Leon O'Neal - both are 4 stars.

Wright is probably the best DE we have a shot at this cycle. He has been an aggy lean since the get go so not shocking though we did make a decent push. I'm sure we will keep at him and try to make a move if Sumlin gets fired. He seems to be committed more to the school than the coach so he may stick even in that case.

With Sterns, Overshown and likely Foster on board, I don't think we were actively pursuing O'Neal at this point. A talented player but the safety group is so deep in Texas this year.
 
When does Foster commit? Just wait bwilk

He commits on Monday afternoon. and I can't wait.

Some insiders are saying to expect a commit over this weekend too. Seems like Ayodele is a silent at this point based on his visit and the chatter ("Hook em alerts" from players) surrounding it. Not sure if he will be the one to go public or if we are looking at someone else.
 
I get a little put off when I see where O.Neal and Wright commit to Aggy and our fan base goes all aggy and starts putting them down. Fact is that we would have liked those guys. I say good get aggy and move on. I also say better aggy than tOSU or Bama.

When we get it turned around we will be able to handle aggy same as always. What we dont want is for those big OOS schools paving that road into Texas that we allowed to get started by turning into an also ran program.Winning cures damned near everything.
 
I get a little put off when I see where O.Neal and Wright commit to Aggy and our fan base goes all aggy and starts putting them down. Fact is that we would have liked those guys. I say good get aggy and move on. I also say better aggy than tOSU or Bama.

When we get it turned around we will be able to handle aggy same as always. What we dont want is for those big OOS schools paving that road into Texas that we allowed to get started by turning into an also ran program.Winning cures damned near everything.

Where do you see this happening? In another thread?
 
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What does the '18 recruiting board look like as of right now?

I have been keeping an updated recruit board. I'll be posting an update probably Monday afternoon, after Foster's decision. You can check out the updated version back on page 3 of this thread, about halfway down. I keep it up to date as things happen but I only repost it periodically.
 
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I kinda think oldhorn2 may have misread something........somewhere......because I don't see anyone putting any aggy commits down. Either he misinterpreted something or.........man I don't know
 
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He commits on Monday afternoon. and I can't wait.

Some insiders are saying to expect a commit over this weekend too. Seems like Ayodele is a silent at this point based on his visit and the chatter ("Hook em alerts" from players) surrounding it. Not sure if he will be the one to go public or if we are looking at someone else.



Top ILB target with some news at 7pm. Expecting a commitment.
 
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