THREE THINGS WE LEARNED
1. UT’s .500 record doesn’t tell the story of the progress that’s been made
The Longhorns are sitting with a 4-4 record after a dominating 38-7 win over Baylor, and while nobody in the program would tell you he’s satisfied with a .500 record after eight games, it becomes more and more apparent with each passing week that this program is making significant strides in the right direction.
The Longhorns aren’t receiving any votes in this week’s AP or Coaches Polls, but do rank a very respectable No. 20 in both the Jeff Sagarin College Football Ratings and the ESPN Football Power Index, both of which are more thorough and largely more objective than the human polls since they take into account the strength of each team’s schedule.
Three of Texas’ four losses have come against teams ranked No. 8, 10 and 17 on the ESPN Power Index Poll (9, 10, 16 in Sagarin), and those three games were all close, with two going into overtime. The Horns have defeated Iowa State (25, 19) and Kansas State (36, 42). Objectively, Texas has had only one “bad” game, its season-opening loss to Maryland, which now sits at 4-4 on the year (although the Maryland team Texas played is better than its current status after losing its top two quarterbacks to season-ending injuries).
The Longhorns’ strength of schedule, according to Sagarin’s rankings, is No. 7 nationally through eight games, and the fact that Texas has been able to stay competitive in every week aside from one is proof positive that Tom Herman and staff have this thing close to being turned around. Throw in the fact that Texas has had to use smoke and mirrors due to key offensive injuries, and the job done by the staff and players is even more impressive.
For comparison sake, to get an idea of just how difficult Texas’ schedule has been … Texas A&M has a better record, at 5-3, but the Aggies rank No. 39 in both the ESPN and Sagarin polls, a full 19 spots behind Texas. In fact, the Aggies are even ranked below TCU, Texas Tech and West Virginia, three of the Horns’ next four opponents.
It’s been a brutal schedule for Texas having to play in a conference that doesn’t allow for many down weeks, and while four losses is not the standard that Herman and the rest of the staff want, this has actually been a season of significant progress, and the team seems to be getting better each week.
2. The Texas offense has a chance to be significantly better in 2018
We still have four regular-season games remaining in the 2017 season in addition to a likely bowl game, so I hate to look too far ahead, but I was asked last week about UT’s offensive line possibilities for next year, and it got my wheels turning a bit.
My initial reaction was that it’s a bit of good news/bad news, thinking specifically of the offensive line … on a positive note, just about all of this year’s mainstays will be back in 2018 … on a negative note, just about all of this year’s mainstays will be back in 2018.
Understandably, the Texas line has struggled this year, but this group has a chance to be pretty good in 2018 if the right pieces come together. In a best case scenario, Connor Williams returns for his senior year. Elijah Rodriguez will be back and should compete for a starting spot. Denzel Okafor will have some valuable experience under his belt and could be a swing tackle, or could even possibly move into guard if Texas is able to land someone like JUCO offensive tackle Badara Traore and/or continue to develop Derek Kerstetter. Guards Jake McMillon and Patrick Vahe will both be seniors. Zach Shackelford and Terrell Cuney will both return at center. Patrick Hudson should be back at full strength, and a few other young players in the program will have another year of off-season conditioning under their belts.
There’s some “ifs” in the above line-up in regards to Williams and Traore, and though the presence of those two could greatly benefit UT’s overall play, there’s still plenty of capable bodies to fill in even if neither is wearing a Texas uniform in 2018. As much as this year has been a struggle for Derek Warehime’s guys, it should pay dividends in 2018.
Most of the wide receiver talent will return aside from Dorian Leonard, Lorenzo Joe and Armanti Foreman. Both quarterbacks will have a year in the offensive system and are picking up valuable experience. The tight end position will still be a bit of a work in progress but Cade Brewer has played well, and the running back rotation suddenly looks pretty good after getting an extended look at Daniel Young and Toneil Carter.
It will all start up front, and there will certainly be some personnel curveballs thrown before the 2018 season begins, but that side of the ball would appear to have a chance to take a significant step forward next year.
3. Texas and Texas A&M need to renew their rivalry
It felt like I was in the minority when Texas A&M first left the Big 12 Conference in 2012 and I suggested that the Longhorns and Aggies should find a way to keep their rivalry alive with an annual nonconference tilt. After seeing the 2018 Texas football schedule, I feel more strongly than ever … Texas sports, especially football, are much more interesting when Texas A&M is on the schedule.
Over the last five years, Texas has been able to somewhat salvage its Thanksgiving week tradition of playing a Thursday or Friday game of interest by rotating home games between TCU and Texas Tech. Those contests are meaningful due to the conference factor, and I guess you can spin them both as being in-state “rivals,” but neither holds a candle to the excitement generated by playing A&M. That game actually carried with it some tradition and often-times had the interest of the entire nation.
Last week, the Big 12 announced the 2018 schedule, and Texas fans will get the pleasure of another Thanksgiving-week game (Friday). Only this time, it’ll be a road tilt in lovely Lawrence, Kansas against the mighty Kansas Jayhawks.
Honestly, if Texas can’t find a way to get A&M back on the schedule for either a Thursday or Friday game during the week of Thanksgiving, the tradition of playing a weekday game might as well go away. Besides, after a brutal run through the Big 12 schedule, the Longhorns could use a late-season non-conference game against lesser competition.
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TWO QUESTIONS
1. Who should be the Longhorns’ top quarterback moving forward?
I’m sure we’ll have some opinionated responses on this one.
With Sam Ehlinger cleared to practice beginning on Sunday, the Texas coaches will be faced with a tough task this week with not only selecting a starter, but possibly deciding on what type of leash the players will have.
Tom Herman said on Monday the staff won’t decide on a starter until it sees practices on Tuesday and Wednesday, at the earliest, and Herman has no intentions of publicly detailing his plans for the quarterback position. In fact, Herman said, there’s “still a possibility” that both Shane Buechele and Sam Ehlinger will play.
I still lean slightly towards Ehlinger being the better long-term solution, but this is an extremely close race and with Ehlinger coming off two consecutive games where he suffered some degree of head trauma, that’s an obvious concern moving forward, particularly with Ehlinger’s physical style of play. Not to say Buechele is a picture of perfect health, but in last week’s game, he appeared to be as physically effective as a runner and passer as we’ve seen him all season.
Both quarterbacks have been up and down this year, but Buechele was extremely effective last week (despite the slow start) and his performance against what has turned out to be a good Iowa State team looks much better now than it did a few weeks ago. Since Texas knocked off ISU in Ames, the Cyclones have reeled off four straight wins and have given up an average of less than 13 points in those games despite playing against high-powered offenses like Oklahoma, TCU and Texas Tech.
The guess here is that Buechele gets the nod and Texas tries to employ a similar scheme to what it did last week, giving Buechele some quick reads as a passer that allow him to get the ball out of his hand quickly and accurately. But that assumption is probably a bit premature … I don’t think the coaches even know their plan just yet.
Picking a starter will be a big discussion point this week, but an equally interesting topic will be how much leeway either quarterback is given if Texas’ offense starts slowly, which has been a bit of a pattern for this team. The good news for the Longhorns is that both players have shown they’re more than capable of playing well, so the coaches have good options. The hardest decision the coaches will have to make all week may be finding the right quarterback, even if it means making changes in-game.
2. What to make of Anthony Cook delaying his commitment?
It wasn’t a huge shock when five-star cornerback Anthony Cook decided to push back his scheduled Monday commitment, but once word came out, the questions immediately turned to whether or not it was a good sign for Texas, and what the delay ultimately meant for Cook’s decision.
My thinking … not much.
On one hand, it probably would have benefitted Texas had Cook committed in the days/weeks shortly following his Texas official visit, which went very well. Had that happened, the Longhorns probably would have been the choice.
But Cook isn’t the type that’s going to rush into a decision and the plan was always for him to take visits to all three of his finalists – Texas, LSU, Ohio State – before deciding. LSU was always involved, but the Tigers’ staff did a great job during his visit to Baton Rouge a couple weekends ago and as we mentioned last week, Cook was genuinely torn in the days leading up to his scheduled announcement.
This one, once again, is tough to predict. Texas has had such tremendous success recruiting, especially in the secondary, that it’s tough to bet against Tom Herman and staff, but anyone thinking this thing is or has been leaning strongly in UT’s direction is engaging in a bit of wishful thinking. From what I gathered last week, Cook genuinely does not know where he wants to go, and this thing could still go any direction, at any time. Don’t look for Cook to re-schedule a day for his commitment … instead he’ll likely just make the call whenever a decision hits him and word will spread after he tells the coaches.
One final note on Cook, unrelated to his upcoming decision … wherever he winds up, I personally hope he has success. Cook doesn’t do a ton of interviews but he really is a bit of a throwback who has been refreshing to cover. He doesn’t get too distracted by all the outside noise that oftentimes happen with recruits in today’s day and age, he doesn’t really care about the media spotlight, he has no interest in drumming up fabricated drama and he’s always been a pleasure to deal with when I have talked to him. I know that won’t be of interest to everyone, but sometimes it’s nice to point out when a young man makes such a positive impression.
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ONE PREDICTION – Connor Williams returns for his senior season
I really have nothing to base this off of other than a gut feel, but I’ve come around to the thinking that Williams will be back at Texas next year for his senior season, rather than declaring early for the NFL.
From what I’ve heard, Williams is still undecided. The comments from the UT coaches to JUCO OT Badara Traore during his recent official visit would seem to support this line of thinking.
Williams didn’t put out the best film in his limited work against Maryland, and unless he comes back in the next couple weeks and plays at an exceptionally high level, another year of college ball could really improve his NFL stock. And, as mentioned earlier in this column, he could be part of a suddenly deep and talented offensive line in 2018, which would take some pressure off Williams’ shoulders.
This one’s tough to predict because we really don’t know yet how NFL teams will grade Williams, but it just seems to me that another year in college could significantly improve his draft grade.
