IT update after weekend visitors:
By: Eric Nahlin and Justin Wells
We're talking UT's C/O 2019 and how we see it finish with recruiting percentages, latest on visitors this weekend including
Tommy Kennedy, and more from
Caleb Johnson,
Peyton Powell, and
running backs inside the Scoop.
From: EN
2019 Recruiting Percentages for your reading pleasure.
Running Back
Noah Cain is going to dominate the news cycle so we might as well start with running back recruiting.
Before the Steve Wiltfong Crystal Ball prediction in Penn State's favor, I was re-thinking my math on Cain. Previously I had this as a recruitment-of-convenience for each; a recruitment that just makes too much sense, especially if LSU and Georgia filled up. But with
Penn State now emerging as the leader, the case can be made that Cain has been looking for a reason not to go to Texas. In the podcast I mentioned how comical the Saquon Barkley sell is, but maybe it's working despite it being akin to telling Cody Johnson he's the next Ramonce Taylor.
Texas has been lining up contingencies and from what I can gather, there isn't unanimity in who is the best, tangible target. Of course they all agree that
Trey Sanders is tops on the board, but you know how I feel there. That Georgia push I've been mentioning for him is coming to light after his visit there. The Texas staff has continued to push for Sanders. You can't win the lottery without buying a ticket.
Some like
DJ Williams quite a bit, which isn't hard based on his film, but it looks unlikely he'll visit. I mentioned there may be a red flag with him, but if there is it isn't with grades. His transcript is good to go.
Cain is obviously Stan Drayton's preferred target of the tangible options (
Deondrick Glass,
Rhamondre Stevenson), but that view isn't shared by everyone, and as of right now it may not matter. There could be an interesting data point that comes to light down the road. We'll document that at the proper time but right now, I'm working with imperfect information.
Texas is confident it will land a commitment from one of its top-five targets. That leaves JUCO product Rhamondre Stevenson and Katy's Deondrick Glass.
I'm a fan of Stevenson. If Cain had his burst he never would have dropped in the rankings. Feeling like I was going to need to get to know him, I caught up with Stevenson last night.
"I’m looking to take a visit for sure but it will be in January, no set date yet," said Stevenson. "And UT is a great school and will definitely be considered until signing day in February."
Stevenson likes OU early on but I get the feeling his recruitment won't really hit its stride until January and other schools are under genuine consideration. He mentioned he's also considering Utah.
Texas checked in on him about month ago and has been working quietly behind the scenes. He would be an immediate contributor despite not arriving until May.
There's a Glass advocate or two in Moncrief and after watching him in his first game of the year (the only time a Katy running back is ever fresh) against a fast and physical North Shore defense, I understand those who like him. I mentioned he impressed me at the time, so don't take that as me trying to sell you on him now.
I caught up with Deondrick's father, and he said they're looking at official visits to Texas, Michigan, and maybe Georgia (I think Georgia will be full). The Michigan mention reminded me of Mike Hart. I could see that in Glass. It might not be ideal for UT fans to read, but he's a player the heavyweight schools have shown a lot of genuine interest in. Maybe all those schools know something.
Sanders: 1%
Williams: 5%
Cain: 25%
Stevenson: 40%
Glass: 55%
Of course this assumes that Texas will be pushing for one of Stevenson and Glass in January.
Offensive Line
Texas has two committed and looks great for Dulles offensive tackle
Isaiah Hookfin. That will probably do it for high school recruiting on the offensive line but I can't entirely rule out a surprise visit by
Andrew Coker. If the Katy Taylor product and TCU pledge did visit, I'd predict the flip.
Most of the intrigue remaining stems from the JUCO and grad transfer ranks. Former Butler tackle
Tommy Kennedy visited this weekend. Justin will have more on that, but it is interesting he didn't receive a public offer. Maybe that was done to not alienate
Jay Williams who didn't receive an offer either. I'm not sure. Williams not being offered probably guarantees he'll end up at FSU, but clearly the staff had some reservations.
One negative development was
Myron Cunningham stating he was done taking visits and he'll announce his decision this Tuesday. By all accounts he's leaning towards Arkansas over OU, meaning Oklahoma will still be in the offensive tackle market when Kennedy visits Norman next weekend.
Hookfin: 90%
Kennedy: 40%
Coker: 20%
Kennedy being able to enroll at the semester increases his value to me. Last week I mistakenly wrote he wouldn't count towards the class, but he would.
Wide Receiver
This is a big week in
Bru McCoy's recruitment as Tom Herman and Drew Mehringer head west to see him. My confidence has waned some since USC hired Kliff Kingsbury but that wasn't the nail in the coffin. What won't help is any Mehringer job rumors.
We still believe
Elijah Higgins is waiting on Stanford admissions. My best Stanford sources of information, Russ Roberts and Thomas Sowell, have heard nothing here. I'll check with Peter Robinson later today. I know Florida is still kicking the tires here and the Gators feel they have a decent chance if he isn't accepted.
Tim Beck visited
Kennedy Lewis last week and he'll OV to Washington soon. Clearly UT is trying to get him to wait to sign in February. With Demariyon Houston de-committing, Lewis is a take to me. If they miss on Bru, I think he'll become an obvious take for the staff.
McCoy: 35%
Higgins: 15%
Lewis: 50%
If Higgins doesn't get in to Stanford, his percentage will jump sharply. There's a lot of room for movement in Lewis' recruitment too.
Linebacker
I asked
Caleb what percentage I should put him at. He replied, "50." That puts Texas in the lead.
Johnson: 60%
It may seem foolish to put him higher than Johnson's own percentages, but Herman and Orlando will visit him this week. I think they have the best sell and they'll hammer that home this week. More from JW on him later.
Johnson is probably the biggest need on the board and the fact he has three years of eligibility remaining is flying a bit under the radar. He'll be around to help Texas defend its title.
Defensive Back
Jalen Catalon's official visit will be this coming weekend. This will serve as the best chance for Tom Herman to win over Catalon's parents, and overcome some negative recruiting. I want to believe there's a good chance Texas can flip this recruitment on its head but sourcing isn't leading me to that assumption. Keep an eye on TCU.
Peyton Powell. Long-time readers will know I abhor unclear projections. There is validity to taking high level athletes and letting their position sort itself on campus, but you have to make assumptions with Powell and that's not a good way to go about things. Are his hands good for receiver? Does he have the temperament to play defense? Can he play corner? Corner would be his best value to the roster, yet he apparently wants to play quarterback. I'm sorry, Peyton, did you say cornerback? Powell has a bit of leverage here, Texas needs corners and receivers, but I'm not sure how hard I'd try and keep him if I was the staff.
Catalon: 25%
Powell: 50%
I wouldn't be surprised to see another defensive back candidate emerge in January.
From: JW
TOMMY KENNEDY
After hitting on grad transfers Calvin Anderson and Tre Watson last season, it would only make sense for Texas to comb the market for guys that can come in and play immediately. So...meet Tommy Kennedy.
The 6-foot-5, 290-pound second team all-conference tackle is available. And after Texas OL coach Herb Hand visited him last week, Kennedy jumped on the opportunity to visit the Longhorns over the weekend.
“It was great," said Kennedy, who attended Lake Forest High School in Lake Bluff, Ill. "Everything was first class. Didn’t expect anything different from a first class university like UT. Definitely lived up to my expectations.”
What are a few factors that really stood out to Kennedy?
“The brotherhood," said Kennedy. "They truly have guys on their team that love and care about each other. Coach Herman has done a really good job with the culture.”
There's that word again; culture. And it's a big reason on where he'll decide to play his final year of collegiate ball.
“Definitely culture," Kennedy explained. "The offensive line is one of those positions where you need to have good chemistry with the four other guys in order to be successful. There is a lot of trust that goes on in the trenches. Everyone needs to be able to trust that the guy next to them is going to do what they are coached. It’s really important to me because I’m a one year guy and I don’t have the luxury of time.”
This is a smart kid who might come in and play
right tackle, but is versatile enough to possibly
slide inside if needed.
He'll see OU this coming weekend, then hit Coral Gables for Miami a few days later. He wants to announce on December 19th, the first day to ink his LOI. Texas put themselves in pouncing position here. Just by his voice, you can tell the Longhorns made a strong impression. As for an offer, he might have one and was told to keep it quiet.
CALEB JOHNSON
One of, if not the single most important recruit left on the Texas Big Board, the Fullerton College LB announced this weekend he would be committing on Thursday, December 13th. His ability to come in and play immediately benefits both Johnson and the Longhorns defensive depth chart next fall.
I asked Johnson to describe in one word his feelings on each of the final four schools in the mix. His answer, in order:
Texas: BIG.
Oregon: Dream.
Colorado: Slept on.
Arkansas: SEC.
What's the important factor in his decision?
“A program that helps me reach my full potential," said Johnson. "I’ve got a huge decision in the next five days.”
Former Georgia DC, and new Colorado coach Mel Tucker will do an in-home visit with Johnson today. Coach Herman follows with his in-home tomorrow. I agree with Eric's assessment of Texas' chances here, but I'm tempted to add a few percentage points.
We'll have more closer to his announcement in the next few days. This is an important recruitment, y'all.
PEYTON POWELL
Last summer, Texas WR coach Drew Mehringer woke up with offers on his mind. In a matter of 24 hours, three potential wide receivers were extended UT invitations. One of those was Odessa Permian ATH Peyton Powell. Fast forward to last month, his official to Austin was a big success and his subsequent commitment to the good guys happened soon after his trip. He was told he'd have an opportunity to play QB, and if that didn't work out, WR or nickel on defense would be the next move.
Either way, it's what Powell wanted. Just a chance.
It was reported he took an OV to Baylor last weekend after telling me on Saturday morning he wasn’t. Beck and Mehringer spoke to him on Friday and were under the impression the visit wouldn't take place. I reported last week he’d strongly consider signing during NSD2, and now we know why. Baylor and Texas Tech are pushing hard.
Texas has also discussed the possibility of him enrolling early, but this recruitment might have some twists and turns to it. Losing Powell isn't ideal, but like DeMaryion Houston, it's not a prospect you'd lose sleep over.