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FINALLY National Championship Favorites | Behind Enemy Lines

CodyCarpentier

every like is another Jonathon Brooks rushing yard
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Nov 25, 2023
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Happy Victory Monday VI 🤘


* Anthony Hill is a top-15 NFL Draft Pick in 2026
** Raise your hand if, before the season, you had Texas as the #1 Defense in America through 6 games
*** Texas is the ONLY Defense in America with fewer than 10 defensive possessions to reach the Red Zone (7)
(1st) 3.69 yards per play allowed
(1st) 229.7 yards per game allowed
(1st) 6.33 points allowed per game
(2nd) 91.4 Passing Efficiency Allowed
(7th) 27.6% 3rd down conversion rate allowed
(12th) 2.99 yards per rush allowed
(T-15th) 18 team sacks

* Quinn Ewers' stat line after the first three drives (INT, Punt, Punt) - 18/25 191 and 1 touchdown
** Raise your hand if, before the season, you had the Texas Defense being better than the Texas offense through 6 games, apart of your expectations.
*** Silas Bolden's hustle and Ryan Wingo's abilities continue to show, why the offense should be utilizing all 6 Wide Receivers with a more consistent split. Golden 60 snaps, Wingo 36 snaps, Moore 36 snaps, Bond 19 snaps-injured, Bolden 13 snaps, Cook 4 snaps. All snaps, per PFF.
(6th) 9.58 yards per attempt
(7th) 43.2 points per game
(8th) 177.06 Passing Efficiency
(11th) 7.20 yards per play
(13th) 50% 3rd down conversion rate
(14th) 6 total sacks allowed
(31st) 5.13 yards per rush

Texas Best Point Differential through 6 games (s/a Josh Pate's CFB Show)

2024: +211 (6-0)
1941: +203 (8-1-1)
1977: +196 (11-1)
2005: +190 (13-0)
2008: +189 (12-1)

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Checking in "Behind Enemy Lines"

Georgia (5 days until)


1. WHAT IS THE LINE? - UnderDAWG: For the first time in 50 Games, Georgia will enter the 40 acres as an underdog. 3.5 points to be exact with a projected game total of 56.5, this implies a score of 30-26.5 in favor of Texas.

2. INJURY - Roderick Robinson RB, Smael Mondon LB / Tate Ratledge OL: All 3 players were OUT last week against Mississippi State. Branson Robinson, RB was injured during the game on Saturday he went down holding his leg, was examined in the tend before going back to the lockerroom and listed as Out for the remainder of the game.

3. RECRUITING - Elijah Griffin, DT: The Top 10 Prospect in America is expected to commit to Georgia when he makes his announcement this Friday afternoon at 1:20 ET.
Questions/Thoughts from the Board Post-Mississippi State..
-
Yeah, I don't see our team suddenly changing, before Texas. We are what we are ino.
- How have we regressed so badly and so quickly on defense? And even more important, how do we (and how can we) stop the bleeding?
- We are very bad in several areas that are vital for a title run - and according to Kirby - that’s the standard. this team doesn’t sniff the standard - anywhere.
- This is the most un-Kirby team I have seen since 2016. Too many penalties, missed assignments, busted coverages, getting beat deep, etc. Poor blocking, poor tackling, etc. The theme going into 2024 off B2B NC was to not let complacency rear its head. I don’t think it did but it appears it showed up in 2024.
The most frustrating part of this approach is that we are giving up explosives anyways. Might as well at least try and create a turnover or two.

Data Dump from Georgia vs. Mississippi State
- 605 – Georgia set a season-high with 605 yards of total offense. It was the first time this season that Georgia went over 600 and the eighth time under Kirby Smart.
- 459 – Beck set his career-high with 459 yards passing on Saturday. It was his second career 400-yard pass game (had 439 at Alabama).
- 134 – Arian Smith set a career-high with 134 yards receiving edging out the 132 he had against Alabama earlier this season. He now has 412 yards receiving this season after entering this season with 539.
- 99 – The win on Saturday gave Kirby Smart a total of 99 in his career as the Bulldogs’ head coach.
- 43 – Nate Frazier led all Georgia running backs with 43 yards rushing against Mississippi State.
- 3 – Dillon Bell had a touchdown reception for the third consecutive game. He now has four on the season which leads the Bulldogs.
I'll have some more from Behind Enemy Lines on Wednesday's column, once there is more injury news, intel.


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2025 College Football National Championship odds on (8/27/24), per FanDuel - 2024 Preseason


1. Georgia +280
2. Ohio State +400
3. Oregon +650
4. Texas +850
5. Alabama +1400
5. Ole Miss +1400
7. Notre Dame +1800

2025 College Football National Championship odds on (10/7/24), per FanDuel - Post Week 6 Results

1. Ohio State +290
2. Texas +450 - Trend: (-50) since last week
3. Georgia +450
4. Alabama +650
5. Oregon +900
6. Ole Miss +1700
7. Penn State +1800
8. Miami (FL) +2000
8. Tennessee +2000
9. Clemson +2700

2025 College Football National Championship odds on (10/14/24), per FanDuel - Post Week 7 Results

1. Texas +400 - Trend: (-50) - FIRST TIME FAVORITE THIS YEAR

2. Georgia +450 - Trend: (-)
3. Ohio State +450 - Trend: (+160)
4. Oregon +550 - Trend: (-350)
5. Alabama +850 - Trend: (+200)
6. Penn State +1200 - Trend: (-600)
7. Clemson +1800 - Trend: (-900)
8. Miami (FL) +2000 - Trend: (-)
8. Tennessee +2000 - Trend: (-)

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Super Explosives 2024 (20+ yard plays) - 45 total


Texas continues to dominate downfield, for the second game in a row, they reeled off 9 plays of 20+ yards while allowing 0. Texas currently ranks 2nd in the country with 45 plays of 20+ yards, just behind the Miami Hurricanes, who are averaging 1.3 more per game.

-- 9 vs. Oklahoma --
Gunnar Helm 21-yard reception from Quinn Ewers vs. Oklahoma
Gunnar Helm 30-yard reception from Matthew Golden vs. Oklahoma
Gunnar Helm 26-yard reception from Quinn Ewers vs. Oklahoma
Ryan Wingo 44-yard reception from Quinn Ewers vs. Oklahoma
Ryan Wingo 25-yard rush vs. Oklahoma
Tre Wisner 36-yard rush vs. Oklahoma
Tre Wisner 43-yard rush vs. Oklahoma
DeAndre Moore 26-yard reception from Quinn Ewers vs. Oklahoma
Matthew Golden 23-yard reception from Quinn Ewers vs. Oklahoma

-- 9 vs. Mississippi State --
Matthew Golden 22-yard reception from Arch Manning vs. Miss State
Isaiah Bond 27-yard reception from Arch Manning vs. Miss State
Isaiah Bond 26-yard rush vs. Miss State
DeAndre Moore 49-yard reception from Arch Manning vs. Miss State
DeAndre Moore 27-yard reception from Arch Manning vs. Miss State
Johntay Cook 31-yard reception from Arch Manning vs. Miss State
Arch Manning 26-yard rush vs. Miss State
Tre Wisner 38-yard rush vs. Miss State
Jaydon Blue 21-yard rush vs. Miss State

-- 5 vs. UL-Monroe --
Ryan Wingo 25-yard reception from Arch Manning vs. ULM
Matthew Golden 46-yard reception from Arch Manning vs. ULM
Isaiah Bond 56-yard reception from Arch Manning vs. ULM
Jaydon Blue 20-yard rush vs. ULM
Colin Page 20-yard rush vs. ULM

-- 7 vs. UTSA --
Gunnar Helm 49-yard reception from Quinn Ewers vs. Colorado State
Matthew Golden 20-yard reception from Arch Manning vs. UTSA
Ryan Wingo 36-yard reception from Arch Manning vs. UTSA
Ryan Wingo 75-yard reception from Arch Manning vs. UTSA
Isaiah Bond 51-yard reception from Arch Manning vs. UTSA
Arch Manning 67-yard rush vs. UTSA
Colin Page 23-yard rush vs. UTSA

-- 8 vs. Michigan --
Gunnar Helm 21-yard reception from Quinn Ewers vs. Michigan
Gunnar Helm 22-yard reception from Quinn Ewers vs. Michigan
Gunnar Helm 22-yard reception from Quinn Ewers vs. Michigan
Matthew Golden 20-yard reception from Quinn Ewers vs. Michigan
Jaydon Blue 23-yard reception from Quinn Ewers vs. Michigan
DeAndre Moore 24-yard reception from Quinn Ewers vs. Michigan
Isaiah Bond 33-yard reception from Quinn Ewers vs. Michigan
Ryan Wingo 55-yard rush vs. Michigan

-- 7 vs. Colorado State --
Gunnar Helm 37-yard reception from Quinn Ewers vs. Colorado State
Isaiah Bond 23-yard reception from Quinn Ewers vs. Colorado State
Isaiah Bond 25-yard rush vs. Colorado State
Jerrick Gibson 22-yard rush vs. Colorado State
Ryan Wingo 30-yard reception from Arch Manning vs. Colorado State
Matthew Golden 38-yard reception from Quinn Ewers vs. Colorado State
Johntay Cook 40-yard reception from Arch Manning vs. Colorado State

-- Team Leaders --
Running Backs with 9 total (3 for Blue, 2 for Page, 3 for Wisner, 1 for Gibson)
Gunnar Helm with 8 total (7 from Quinn, 1 from Golden)
Isaiah Bond with 7 total (2 from Quinn, 3 from Arch, 2 rush)
Ryan Wingo with 7 total (4 from Arch, 2 rush, 1 from Quinn)
Matthew Golden with 6 total (3 from Quinn, 3 from Arch)

Defensive Super Explosives 2024

Another week goes by and it's another week with Texas sitting atop the country at NOT allowing the opposition to create explosive plays. Texas has given up just 9 plays of 20+ yards downfield... the exact number that the Texas Offensive created on Saturday vs. Oklahoma. On Saturday against Oklahoma, the Sooners finished with ZERO plays of 20+ yards.

Texas has also allowed just 42 plays of 10+ yards, ranking #1 in the country. Leading Ohio State by 7.

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My Post Week 7 SEC Power Rankings for Orangebloods

1. Texas (-)

2. Alabama(-)
3. Georgia (-)

4. Tennessee (-2)
5. Texas A&M (+1)
6. LSU (+1)
7. Ole Miss (-2)
8. Vanderbilt (+5)

9. Missouri (+1)
10. Arkansas (+1)
11. Kentucky (-3)
12. South Carolina (-)
13. Oklahoma (-4)
14. Florida (+1)
15. Auburn (-)

16. Mississippi State (-)

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Weekly Prediction Update (6-0) (+/- of 73 pts)

- Week 1 Prediction: 51-13 Texas
- Week 1 Result: 52-0 Texas (+/- 14)
- Week 2 Prediction: 34-13 Texas
- Week 2 Result: 31-12 Texas (+/- 4)
- Week 3 Prediction: 55-3 Texas
- Week 3 Result: 56-7 Texas (+/- 5)
- Week 4 Prediction: 48-6 Texas
- Week 4 Result: 51-3 Texas (+/- 6)
- Week 5 Prediction: 55-14
- Week 5 Result: 35-13 (+/- 21)
- Week 6 Prediction: 37-23
- Week 6 Result: 34-3 (+/- 23) Thanks Bert Auburn and apologies to the Defense

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Week 8 College Football Top 25 Power Ratings
(.977 out of 1.000 = 97.7 Grade)

Tier 1 - (Championship Material)
1. Texas Longhorns (6-0) - .994 - Week 7: (34-3 win vs. Oklahoma)

Tier 2 (Championship Contender)
2. Georgia Bulldogs (5-1) - .970 - Week 7: (41-31 win vs. Mississippi State)
3. Oregon Ducks (6-0) - .968 - Week 7: (32-31 win vs. Ohio State) - MOVEMENT: (+3)
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-1) - .951 - Week 7: (31-32 loss at Oregon)
5. Alabama Crimson Tide (5-1) - .947 - Week 7: (27-25 win vs South Carolina)

Tier 3 (Playoff Material)
6. Miami (FL) Hurricanes (6-0) - .939 - Week 7: IDLE
7. Penn State Nittany Lions (5-0) - .905 - Week 7: (33-30 win at USC) - MOVEMENT: (+3)
8. Clemson Tigers (5-1) - .9037 - Week 7: (49-14 win at Wake Forest)
9. Tennessee Volunteers (5-1) - .9035 - Week 7: (23-17 win vs. Florida)

Tier 4 (Playoff Contender)
10. Texas A&M Aggies (5-1) - .812 - Week 7: IDLE
11. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-1) - .789 - Week 7: (49-7 win at Stanford)
12. Iowa State (6-0) - .784 - Week 7: (28-16 win at West Virginia)

Tier 5 (The Bubble)
13. Missouri Tigers (5-1) - .772 - Week 7: (45-3 win at Massachusetts)

Tier 6 (Qualities of a Contender)
14. BYU Cougars (6-0) - .748 - Week 7: (41-19 win vs Arizona)
15. LSU (5-1) - .746 - Week 7: (29-26 win vs. Ole Miss) - MOVEMENT: (+7)
16. Ole Miss Rebels (5-2) - .740 - Week 7: (26-29 loss at LSU) - MOVEMENT: (-8)

Tier 7 (Unlikely Contender)
17. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-1) - .735 - Week 7: IDLE
18. Kansas State Wildcats (5-1) - .733 - Week 7: (31-28 win at Colorado)
19. Michigan Wolverines (4-2) - .725 - Week 7: IDLE
20. Boise State (5-1) - .723 - Week 7: (28-7 win vs. Hawai'i) - MOVEMENT: (+6)
21. Illinois Fighting Illini (5-1) - .715 - Week 7: (50-49 win vs Purdue)
22. Indiana Hoosiers (6-0) - .687 - Week 7: IDLE
23. Louisville Cardinals (4-2) - .684 - Week 7: (24-20 win vs. Virginia) - MOVEMENT: (+3)
24. Pittsburgh Panthers (6-0) - .682 - Week 7: (17-15 win vs. CAL) - MOVEMENT: (+9)
25. Arizona State Sun Devils (5-1) - .663 - Week 7: (27-19 win vs. Utah) - MOVEMENT: (+9)

The Next Best (Fun to Watch)
26. USC Trojans (3-3) - .682 - Week 7: (30-33 loss vs. Penn State)
27. Vanderbilt Commodores (4-2) - .682 - Week 7: (20-13 win at Kentucky)
28. Kentucky Wildcats (3-3) - .679 - Week 7: (20-13 loss vs. Vandy) - MOVEMENT: (-3)
29. Colorado Buffaloes (4-2) - .678 - Week 7: (28-31 loss vs. Kansas State)
30. Utah Utes (4-2) - .677 - Week 7: (19-27 loss at Arizona State) - MOVEMENT: (-18)
31. Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-1) - .677 - Week 7: IDLE
32. SMU Mustangs (5-1) - .675 - Week 7: IDLE
33. Oklahoma Sooners (4-2) - .668 - Week 7: (34-3 loss vs. Texas) - MOVEMENT: (-16)
34. Army Black Knights (6-0) - .666 - Week 7: (44-10 win vs. UAB)
35. Navy Midshipman (5-0) - .666 - Week 7: (34-7 win vs. Air Force)
36. Washington State Cougars (5-1) - .662 - Week 7 (25-17 win vs. Fresno State)



My Week 8 Heisman Watchlist Update

Tier 1

1. Cameron Ward, Miami (FL) - QB - (69.2%, 2,219 yards, 20 td 5 int) - 182.4 Rating - (28-161-3 Rushing)

Tier 2
2. Ashton Jeanty, Boise State - RB - (126-1,248-17 Rushing) - (9-39-0 Receiving)

Tier 3
3. Travis Hunter, Colorado - WR/DB - (49-587-6 Receiving) - (17 Tackles, 3 PD, 1 FF and 2 INT on Defense)
4. Jalen Milroe, Alabama - QB - (72.7%, 1,483 yards, 12 td 4 int) - 191.0 Rating - (77-319-11 Rushing)
5. Dillon Gabriel, Oregon - QB - (76.1%, 1,790 yards, 13 td 3 int) - 169.3 Rating (28-103-4 Rushing)
6. Quinn Ewers, Texas - QB - (72.2%, 890 yards, 9 td 3 int) - 163.4 Rating (4-10-1 Rushing)
7. Cade Klubnik, Clemson - QB - (66.8%, 1,528 yards, 17 td 2 int) - 164.9 Rating - (35-198-4 Rushing)

Tier 4
8. Carson Beck, UGA - QB - (67.9%, 1,818 yards, 15 td 5 int) - 159.9 Rating (23-57-0 Rushing)
9. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU - QB - (64.3%, 1,989 yards, 18 td 6 int) - 150.4 Rating - (8-11-2 Rushing)
10. Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss - QB - (70.2%, 2,384 yards, 14 td 3 int) - 182.1 Rating (53-183-3 Rushing)

Dropped from Watchlist
1. Avery Johnson, Kansas State - QB (Week 1)
2. Kyron Drones, Virginia Tech - QB (Week 1)
3. Will Howard, Ohio State - QB (Week 2)
4. Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State - WR - (Week 3)
5. Arch Manning, Texas - QB - (Week 4)
6. Miller Moss, USC - QB - (Week 4)
7. Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona - WR - (Week 5)
8. Drew Allar, Penn State - QB - (Week 5)
9. Nico Iamaleava, Tennessee - QB - (Week 6)

Have a great week 🤘 It's another big one!
 
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