Let's just be as clear as possible about something in the very first sentence of this week's column ... I fully expect Quinn Ewers to be the starting quarterback for Texas in the 2022 season.
Barring injuries or something completely unforeseen, I'm 100 percent certain of it.
Not 60 percent. Or 70 percent. Not even ... wait for it ... 85 percent. ONE HUNDRED PERCENT.
It doesn't take a rocket surgeon (did I do this right, Tom?) to know that the entire Steve Sarkisian era in Austin is connected to the success of the Ohio State transfer over the course of the next 22 months or so.
Yet, we're leading off this week's column with some thoughts on the other guy ... Hudson Card.
Remember him?
He's the guy that everyone spent the entire off-season saying the exact same things about as people are saying now about Ewers. He's the guy that a former staff member under Tom Herman told TheAthletic that Card not only reminded him of Aaron Rodgers, but that, “He is ridiculously good. He can really spin it. He makes good decisions. He has a lot of ‘It’ factor.”
Card is also the guy that chased his Texas career into the side of a mountain in September when all of his weaknesses as a young quarterback were exposed on the road in a loss to Arkansas. So poor was his play that night that a lot of Texas fans pretty much wrote him off as a player capable of growing into the kind of player this program needs in order to escape the levels of mediocrity that have swallowed the program whole in the last 12 seasons. More important than that, Card seemed to lose the confidence of Steve Sarkisian in a way that suggested that it might be nearly impossible to ever get it back.
As the president of the Card Fan Club last season, I find myself thinking about the former Lake Travis star and asking one thing ... what's this kid made of?
In all of the years I've been covering the Texas football program, I've never seen a player with so much physical ability tossed in the trash can so fast. There's not another player in the program that has been judged so harshly in the face of a disaster of a 5-7 season that pretty much made every dude in this program not named Bijan, Roschon or Xavier look like a bunch of JAGs for long stretches of this season. Whether it's fair or not matters less than the fact that this is the reality that Card finds himself in.
Personally, I don't think there's any way Card starts another game at Texas unless Ewers gets hurt.
Sooooooo ... now what, Hudson?
For the first time in his career, he's being doubted.
For the first time in his career, no one cares about his physical tools.
It has to be quite humbling, but it's possible that the thing Card needs more than anything else to get the absolute most out of himself is a little adversity. If anyone had a reason to have a chip on his shoulder in the off-season last year, it was probably Casey Thompson, who had to hear about Card's arm and potential at every turn after his record-setting performance in the Alamo Bowl. Well, I'm curious to see how Card responds to living in a world where the shoe is on the other foot.
Is there a junkyard dog inside of Card that can make the next eight months something other than a lay-up line for Ewers on the way to the starting job? Can he muster up some Major Applewhite-like grit and determination?
As a fan of Card, I just want to see him reach his ceiling as a player and it's possible that he won't be able to do that in Austin over the long haul. Yet, in the short-term, I just want to see him fight like his quarterbacking life depends on it. Go be Rocky Balboa in Russia getting ready for the Drago fight. Cut some firewood. Climb some mountains.
Become the iron that either sharpens iron or cuts apart anything pretending to be it.
No. 2 - Scattershooting on the Scholarship Board...
.., Sarkisian was about as honest as he could be in his press conference on Wednesday when it comes to what he wants to do with the roster before the team gets going in August. He wants an inside linebacker. He wants a safety. Also, if the right wide receiver becomes available, he'll take one of those as well. It was interesting that he didn't mention needing any help off the edge because we all know that TCU transfer Ochaun Mathis is a player that would instantly improve the team's play at the edge position.
... With the Longhorns having added 28 high schoolers and 4 transfers among their 32 incoming players, Texas currently has one open spot available before it hits the established 33 incoming player limit. As things currently stand, the Longhorns will need five players to leave the program before August to get under the 85-man limit if they take the full 33 incoming players that are allowed, as expected.
... One of the biggest personnel notes from Sarkisian at his press conference was the mention that super senior Anthony Cook will be in the mix for a starting job at safety after starting at nickel for the entire 2021 season. It'll be interesting to see how Cook makes the transition to the back end in the spring and who jumps to the front of the pack to fill his vacated spot at nickel. Terrance Brooks? Ryan Watts?
... It's kind of crazy that the Longhorns are down to nine scholarship wide receivers going into the spring (with two more true freshmen arriving in the summer) when you consider that there was such a glut of receivers on the roster when Sarkisian arrived that it kind of took the arriving staff off guard. Twelve months later, the Longhorns have a senior, a junior, five sophomores, two redshirt freshmen and a new wide receivers coach.
... Can one of Kelvontay Dixon, Dajon Harrison, Jaden Alexis or Casey Cain knock on the door for considerable playing time in the 2022 season. If Troy Omiere can stay healthy, you'd think that the Longhorns have five receives they feel good about playing with - Omiere, Xavier Worthy, Isaiah Neyor, Jordan Whittington and Marcus Washington. With the two freshmen arriving in the summer, it might not be now or never for Dixon, Harrison, Alexis or Cain, but we might not be too far away from that moment.
... Texas entering the spring with 16 defensive linemen on campus and that number moving to 20 in August isn't sustainable. Something has to give. With so many freshmen from the class of 2022 heading to the 40 Acres, there's a lot of pressure on the likes of Vernon Broughton, Sawyer Goram-Welch, Prince Dorbah and all of the other players that haven't carved out a true spot on the depth chart going into the spring.
No. 3 - The Original Class of Beef ...
With the Devon Campbell signing on Wednesday boosting the Texas offensive line haul in the 2022 recruiting class to seven and pretty much cementing itself as the biggest in numbers and deepest in talent class of offensive linemen in school history, my brain started to wonder about how this year's group stood up to the original Texas "Class of Beef" in 1991.
I was 14 years old when this class put pen to paper, but the nickname that the group of Texas offensive line commits is something that represents my first memories of following recruiting, along with the recruitments of prospects like Jessie Armstead and Kenneth Alexander.
Here's a look at the five members that made up the group and their rankings in the Austin American-Statesman's Fab 55:
I think the original Class of Beef was 1991.
Here are the AAS rankings
1991 Fab 55
(No. 6) Blake Brockermeyer (Fort Worth Arlington Heights)
Brockermeyer was a three-year starter for the Longhorns, who won All-America honors as a junior. A two-time All-SWC player, Brockermeyer turned pro following his junior season, which ended with a Sun Bowl win over Mack Brown's UNC team.
(No. 11) John Elmore (Sherman)
A multi-year starter for the Longhorns, who emerged as a rock solid player for the Longhorns through the 1995 season. Was drafted in the 5th round of the 1996 Draft by the New England Patriots.
(No. 21) Joe Phillips (Midland)
Lettered in 1993 and 1994, but never made a real dent in the program before leaving after the 1994 season.
(No. 41) Troy McMahon (Klein Oak)
I was working in the Texas SID office by 1994 and I have to be honest ... I have never heard of this dude. I can't tell you what happened to him, but he never lettered for the Longhorns.
(No.53) Jay Boulware (Irving Nimitz)
Was forced to end his career early after playing as a reserve in 1992 due to being diagnosed with a cardiac arrhythmia.
While the 1991 class combined the No. 6, No. 11, No. 21, No. 41 and No. 53-ranked prospects from the Fab 55, this year's class pulled the No. 2, No. 11, No. 12, No. 33, No. 39 and No. 69-ranked prospects from the final 2022 Rivals in-state rankings. If Malik Agbo was from the state of Texas, he'd count as the No. 33-ranked prospect and the three players would all drop one spot.
Advantage: 2022 (in kind of a big way)
No. 4 - Updated historical offensive line data ...
Two years ago, I did a deep dive on the history of offensive line prospects within the Rivals rankings and after the Longhorns signed the class we've been talking all week ago, I thought it was time to update the data.
So, here it is ...
From 2002-17, here's a look at the performance breakdown of each of the top four rankings tiers in the Rivals.com rankings system with regards to players being drafted in the NFL.
* 50.8% (33 of 65) of five-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams.
* 36.2% (34 of 94) of high-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams.
* 26.7% (35 of 131) of mid-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams.
* 15.9% (61 of 383) of low four-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams.
(Note: One high four-star lineman and seven low four star linemen from the 2016 class are still going through the 2022 Draft process. There's quite a bit more still with existing eligibility in 2017, as 2 high 4 stars, 4 mid 4 stars and 17 low four stars are still in the college game.)
From 2002-16, here's a look at the performance breakdown of each of the top four rankings tiers in the Rivals.com rankings system with regards to players from the state of Texas being drafted in the NFL.
* 36.4% (4 of 11) of five-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams.
* 33.3% (5 of 15) of high-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams.
* 6.7% (1 of 15) of mid-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams.
* 21.4% (9 of 42) of low four-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams.
(Note: One high four-star lineman and one low-four-star lineman from the 2016 class is going through the 2022 Draft process. One mid-four star and 4 low-four stars are still playing college ball. )
From 2002-15, here's a look at the performance breakdown of each of the top four rankings tiers in the Rivals.com rankings system with regards to Longhorns from the state of Texas being drafted in the NFL.
* 33.3% (1 of 3) of five-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams.
* 12.5% (1 of 8) of high-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams.
* 0.0% (0 of 6) of mid-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams.
* 7.1% (1 of 14) of low four-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams.
No. 5 - Flashing upside ...
For 20 minutes on Saturday afternoon, the men's basketball team looked like a team that could do some damage in the next month or so.
It knocked down shots. Played with some pace. Had some fun. Played the usual great defense. Add it all up together and you've got a 22-point win over a team that came into the game ranked 20th in the country.
THAT is what we expected to see this season from this team and here's hoping that it can find a way to bottle up that second-half explosion because the meat grinder that is the month of February for this team picks up some serious steam with the likes of Kansas and Baylor on the calendar this week.
The question is whether what we witnessed on Saturday was the beginning of this team finally breaking out of the shell it has been trapped inside of all season or just a momentary hot moment. I'm not sure any of us can correctly know the answer beyond a guess at this point, but Saturday afternoon was just the ray of sunshine this team needed if the season is going to eventually be deemed a success.
No. 6 - Twice is not so nice ...
One of these days, the women's basketball program is going to get over this Baylor mountain.
That day just wasn't this weekend.
In a twist of fate that I'm not sure I've ever seen before, the Longhorns twice played the same conference opponent in the span of three days and that opponent just happened to be the team that had beaten Texas 25 out of the last 26 times the two teams had played.
Make that 27 out of 28.
Damn, man, that's just the ass-kicking that won't stop. I don't even completely know what to say other than I would imagine that stat drives Vic Schaefer absolutely up the wall. I can't decide whether or not the Longhorns should want another crack at the Bears in the Big 12 Tournament or just leave that thing alone for another year.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) My Top 20 will evolve over the course of the next 11 months, but I expect Texas to land more than 5 of the state's Top 20. If the Longhorns get five or less, that means that the 2023 class took a step back from the 2022 class and that would represent a bad sign for the future as it relates to Sark's long-term future at Texas.
(Buy) They'll sign someone. I absolutely believe that.
(Buy) Ewers is going to be the guy.
(Buy) I've probably interviewed 20 people in the last 7 months and roughly a half-dozen in the last week. I'm hoping to have our plans announced in the next few days after a few follow up conversations.
(Sell) If Texas was a baseball school, the majority of our content and discussion would be focused on it because the Orangebloods audience would demand it.
(Buy) There's no reason to believe that Sarkisian will sit with a pat hand if he has a chance to improve the program.
(Sell) Honestly, I don't know how to begin to quantify his hire. What I do know is that I expect this team to win more games this year because of its offense and not its defense.
(Buy) All it would take is for the Longhorns to get into a blowout that would allow the coaches a chance to turn them all loose. I don't expect that to occur in a game that counts.
(Sell) I don't know that any team controls its own destiny with Manning. I would say that I might change my mind about that if the Longhorns found a way to get David Cutcliffe involved in the Texas program.
(Sell) That might eventually happen, but I'm not sure that we're going to see a chance in the upcoming spring in time for the 2022 season. Also, the 25-man annual number is kind of already a thing of the past with the recent rule change that allows a school to take 33 incoming players in a class. See the Longhorns (28 high school signees).
(Sell) I'm not sure what the right number is, but I'd put it below 50 percent at this stage. That thought changes in a big way of Ewers is just pretty good instead of next-level good.
(Sell) Man, I think my mom when to Tangerines back in the day. It's just a little before my time.
(Sell) That group of percentages overrates Texas and underrates Georgia.
(Sell) I'm not expecting that at all. It's not an impossibility, but that light switch hasn't even flickered yet.
(Buy) Absolutely.
(Sell) I sell the framing of this question. College football has been a sport full of haves and have nots for a long time, especially at the top of the sport.
(Buy) I think I'll buy all of that. If I end up being wrong about any of the four buys, it likely won't be by much. Attrition has always been a higher volume deal than most people realize and that's not going to decrease in the era of the portal/NIL.
(Sell) Expect? This team just went 5-7 and has question marks all over the place. I'm not here to tell you how you should set the expectations bar for the program, but to go from 5-7 to 12-1 in two seasons is the kind of massive leap that no Sarkisian-coached team has ever taken before with him as a head coach.
(Buy) - One really good recruiting class doesn't cut it. You have to stack them on top of each other on a yearly basis and if your developmental side of the program is good, you'll start to win a lot of games and set yourself up for something significant. A top 5 class followed by a couple of top 10 classes would probably represent fool's gold.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the sports weekend ...
... I didn't watch a second of the Pro Bowl. Not even an accidental second.
... It's Austin! Seeing the Pittsburgh Steelers hire Austin as their new DC is just a reminder of how interesting it’s been to follow his career since he accepted Mack Brown's job offer, only to change his mind about the whole thing before it ever became official. Would landing Austin instead of ending up with Manny Diaz have saved Mack's backside?
... This is going to crush NBC in a big way.
... Count me among those that haven't yet watched a second of the Winter Olympics. I don't even know what's going on.
... Jordan Spieth and Beau Hossler finishing 2-3 at Pebble Beach Pro-Am is a sign that we all might be watching a lot of PGA action this season.
... Sadio Mane comes from nothing. His life story is a Disney movie. That Disney movie might have found an ending on Sunday when he led Senegal to an African Cup of Nations championship after paying for possibly 100 of his countrymen into Cameroon for the last two games. All he has done now is win the Premier League, the Champions League, a Premier League Golden Boot and now MVP of AFCON. Legend.
No. 9 - The List: Bradley Cooper Movies ...
Full disclosure: I have not yet seen either Licorice Pizza or Nightmare Alley from 2021.
The fact that both of those movies are on my to-do-list for the next week or two is one of the reasons I thought I'd do Cooper this week. I'm not sure if the majority of us have noticed, but this man has cranked out a number of performances in all-time movies in the last two decades.
And now I rank them.
10. Joy
9. The Place Behind the Pines
8. Limitless
7. Guardians of the Galaxy
6. American Sniper
5. American Hustle
4. Silver Linings Playbook
3. The Hangover
2. Wedding Crashers
1. A Star Is Born
I have a feeling both of these most recent movies might crack the top 10.
No. 10 - And Finally...
My seven-year old daughter Haven had her first softball scrimmage on Sunday.
She hit the ball hard in his first plate appearance and didn't know she was supposed to run to first. She just stood there. I'm not sure she even knew where first base was. Then she cried. We've got some work to do before she's replacing Cat Osterman on the 2042 Olympic team.
Meanwhile, my wife is a screamer. She's definitely going viral as one of those parents before my daughter turns 10.
If my writing becomes erratic in the next couple of months... I mean... just a warning.
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