Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Close, but no 2024 cigar?)

[Ketchum]

Wouldn't making Fox "whole" just be us paying them for the difference in what they would make in ad revenue versus the median Big 12 team ad revenue? The article seems to imply that we would be paying the entire ad revenue for games lost by Fox and not considering they will fill those time slots with another game. What am I missing?

A couple of things.

a. Those were soft estimates based on the bare minimum of breaks Fox can have in a game. The math involved is a little hard to pin down because we don't know exactlly what Fox is saying they need to be whole and the math they used to get there.

b. Fox's willingness to be made whole. Some people just want to see the world burn.

 

[Ketchum]

Could you do a breakdown of the top 50 ranked HS recruits in their first year like you did to the portal recruits?

Not in the next 5 minutes, no?

 

[mh48]

Tomorrow.

thanks

 

[McGuapo]

The silver lining for Terry is that if he finishes this season strong, I would guess he’s going to have some nice offers to really take over somewhere where he can prove this wasn’t a fluke. It’s a great opportunity for him to reset the narrative around him to some degree.

 

[jspirohorn]

Can we restructure Ewers NIL deal to get him to kick $1 million into the buyout kitty?

 

[Williamhill2034]

Blows it out of the water.

Lol shouldn’t this be obvious. Top 50 portal recruits are made up of either proven college players looking to upgrade or disgruntled highly rated recruits who have been in the college system and don’t want to wait to play. Both of those trump a top 50 high school player who is completely unproven in the college game. Now outside of the top 50 portal recruits it’s a lot different debate

 

[RLong68]

Ahem... from last week's column...

"There's no shame in going to Knoxville this season and taking an L.

There's also no shame in how the men's basketball team has started Big 12 play, as the Longhorns exit the weekend tied for first place in the Big 12 standings with two other teams not named the Kansas Jayhawks.

Honestly, given the lack of success in the program over the last decade and the circumstances of his season, it's pretty damn remarkable that the players have kept the standard as high as they have.

Still, it's hard not to watch this team and wonder the following:

a. Can Texas stop good teams from scoring when they want?
b. Can Texas outscore good teams?

It's been an issue all season and not just when Chris Beard was still in the huddle. It started with the 85 points given up to Illinois in a loss. Then there was the 116 points given up in the team's next game on the schedule against a ranked team. The team responded against TCU in the next match-up against a ranked team in beating the Horned Frogs 79-75, but gave up 78 points a week later in a loss to Iowa State.

It happened again on Saturday in giving up 82 points to the Vols.

Texas just doesn't have enough offense in most games when this team gives up something close to 80 points. It asks too much of Marcus Carr when it happens, especially with Tyrese Hunter stuck in his funk (double digits in scoring in just 3 of his last 13 games).

There's just not enough shooting. Not enough natural scorers.

If this team is going compete for a conference title or make the Sweet 16, it's either going need to play better defense or find more scoring. At the moment, I'm not sure what is the most likely to occur."

 

[jontonick]

WTH was that top 10 raps songs.

 

[boernefan]

Not in the next 5 minutes, no?

First - This was a great War Room. It was full of great information. Thanks!
Second - Enjoyed the data on the transfers and what they accomplished their first year. It seemed to me that there were many on the top 50 that Texas was not interested in because we were not interested in bringing in because we thought we had equal or better players on the roster or that we were recruiting. (OL, RB, TE, DB)
The only ones on that list that I wish we would have gone after ( and I don't know if they had any personal issues that would have prevented us from offering them) were:
#3 WR Jordan Addison
#7 LB Drew Sanders
#8 DL Akeem Mesidor
#14 DB Christian Gonzales
#21 DE Chop Robinson
#26 LB Mohamoud Diabate
#31 LB Darius Muasau
#48 WR Charlie Jones
We could have used a WR, LB, DL, DB and DE off that list but I don't know if we could have promised that they could start (even though they probably could have)
There were a lot of good QB's, RB's, OL, DL and other that we were not looking to bring in.
Thanks for the thought provoking post.

 

[boernefan]

Lol shouldn’t this be obvious. Top 50 portal recruits are made up of either proven college players looking to upgrade or disgruntled highly rated recruits who have been in the college system and don’t want to wait to play. Both of those trump a top 50 high school player who is completely unproven in the college game. Now outside of the top 50 portal recruits it’s a lot different debate

So which top 50 High School recruit would the give up to get an equally rated portal transfer that same year?

 

[Williamhill2034]

So which top 50 High School recruit would the give up to get an equally rated portal transfer that same year?

I’d imagine every team’s cutoffs are different but I’d think closer to top 75-100 maybe? I’d really need to see a list but think of it this way: how many top 50-100 HS players play their freshman season and contribute at starter level statistically. Most top 50 portal players are plug and play starters and have played college ball at a high level or were high level recruits

 

[RLong68]

Ahem... from last week's column...

"There's no shame in going to Knoxville this season and taking an L.

There's also no shame in how the men's basketball team has started Big 12 play, as the Longhorns exit the weekend tied for first place in the Big 12 standings with two other teams not named the Kansas Jayhawks.

Honestly, given the lack of success in the program over the last decade and the circumstances of his season, it's pretty damn remarkable that the players have kept the standard as high as they have.

Still, it's hard not to watch this team and wonder the following:

a. Can Texas stop good teams from scoring when they want?
b. Can Texas outscore good teams?

It's been an issue all season and not just when Chris Beard was still in the huddle. It started with the 85 points given up to Illinois in a loss. Then there was the 116 points given up in the team's next game on the schedule against a ranked team. The team responded against TCU in the next match-up against a ranked team in beating the Horned Frogs 79-75, but gave up 78 points a week later in a loss to Iowa State.

It happened again on Saturday in giving up 82 points to the Vols.

Texas just doesn't have enough offense in most games when this team gives up something close to 80 points. It asks too much of Marcus Carr when it happens, especially with Tyrese Hunter stuck in his funk (double digits in scoring in just 3 of his last 13 games).

There's just not enough shooting. Not enough natural scorers.

If this team is going compete for a conference title or make the Sweet 16, it's either going need to play better defense or find more scoring. At the moment, I'm not sure what is the most likely to occur."

From @Keenan Womack writeup of TN loss:

As soon as Beard went out, it feels like this team's defense is a threat to give up 80+ nightly.

From your aforementioned TTFTW column the next day:

(Sell) I'm not sure this team is going to make it out of the first weekend.

 

[boernefan]

I’d imagine every team’s cutoffs are different but I’d think closer to top 75-100 maybe? I’d really need to see a list but think of it this way: how many top 50-100 HS players play their freshman season and contribute at starter level statistically. Most top 50 portal players are plug and play starters and have played college ball at a high level or were high level recruits

I don't think they will transfer to a school unless they are pretty sure they will start at that school. Of course that is just the top 50 transfers.

 

[Ketchum]

The silver lining for Terry is that if he finishes this season strong, I would guess he’s going to have some nice offers to really take over somewhere where he can prove this wasn’t a fluke. It’s a great opportunity for him to reset the narrative around him to some degree.

Bingo.

 

[Ketchum]

Lol shouldn’t this be obvious. Top 50 portal recruits are made up of either proven college players looking to upgrade or disgruntled highly rated recruits who have been in the college system and don’t want to wait to play. Both of those trump a top 50 high school player who is completely unproven in the college game. Now outside of the top 50 portal recruits it’s a lot different debate

The conversation shouldn't be about the top portal players vs. the best HS prospects.

It's about top Portal players and even medium-tier Portal players vs. marginal HS prospects.

 

[Ketchum]

WTH was that top 10 raps songs.

I mean... it's explained at the top of the section.

 

[Ketchum]

First - This was a great War Room. It was full of great information. Thanks!
Second - Enjoyed the data on the transfers and what they accomplished their first year. It seemed to me that there were many on the top 50 that Texas was not interested in because we were not interested in bringing in because we thought we had equal or better players on the roster or that we were recruiting. (OL, RB, TE, DB)
The only ones on that list that I wish we would have gone after ( and I don't know if they had any personal issues that would have prevented us from offering them) were:
#3 WR Jordan Addison
#7 LB Drew Sanders
#8 DL Akeem Mesidor
#14 DB Christian Gonzales
#21 DE Chop Robinson
#26 LB Mohamoud Diabate
#31 LB Darius Muasau
#48 WR Charlie Jones
We could have used a WR, LB, DL, DB and DE off that list but I don't know if we could have promised that they could start (even though they probably could have)
There were a lot of good QB's, RB's, OL, DL and other that we were not looking to bring in.
Thanks for the thought provoking post.

I think the list of players that could have helped the program is much, much longer than the one you listed.

 

[Ketchum]

So which top 50 High School recruit would the give up to get an equally rated portal transfer that same year?

None. That's not the one or the other question that should be in play.

 

[Ketchum]

From @Keenan Womack writeup of TN loss:




From your aforementioned TTFTW column the next day:

 

[boernefan]

I think the list of players that could have helped the program is much, much longer than the one you listed.

Who would you add to the list and why?
Also the reasons why we would be concerned of affecting the current player recruits adversely or not
I mean .if you really knew someone was going to an all american you take regardless.

 

[Ketchum]

Who would you add to the list and why?
Also the reasons why we would be concerned of affecting the current player recruits adversely or not
I mean .if you really knew someone was going to an all american you take regardless.

All of these players would have made Texas better in 2022.

3. WR Jordan Addison (USC via Pittsburgh): Was named as a first-team All-Pac 12 player in 2022, despite batting an injury for more than a month during the middle of the season. Is expected to be a first-round pick in the upcoming NFL Draft.

7. LB Drew Sanders (Arkansas via Alabama): An All-American for the Hawgs in 2022, who finished as a finalist for the Butkus Award. Is expected to be a first- or second-round pick in the upcoming NFL Draft.

8. DL Akeem Mesidor (Miami via West Virginia) - Emerged as a key starter for the Hurricanes at DT, recording 38 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss and seven sacks as a sophomore.

9. DB Brandon Joseph (Notre Dame via Northwestern): Started all 10 games for the Irish as a junior in 2022, but wasn't quite the impact player for the Irish that he had been for the Wildcats in the previous two seasons.

11. WR Jermaine Burton (Alabama via Georgia): Was a 12-game starter for the Tide, catching 33 passes for 540 yards and 6 touchdowns as a junior.

12. Edge Jared Verse (FSU via Albany): Earned All-America honors in 2022 as a junior after recording 37 tackles, 16.5 TFL and 9 sacks.

13. OL O'Cyrus Torrence (Florida via Louisiana): Earned consensus All-America honors in 2022 and was a first-team All-SEC player. Is regarded as one of the best interior line players in the upcoming NFL Draft and was a standout at this week's Senior Bowl.

14. DB Christian Gonzalez (Oregon via Colorado): A first-team Al-Pac 12 selection in 2022 for the Ducks. Declared for the NFL Draft in December and is expected to be a first- or second-round pick.

16. DL Gabriel Murphy (UCLA via North Texas): Started in all 13 games this season for the Bruins as a sophomore, recording 38 tackles, 4 TFL and 1.5 sacks.

17. DL Grayson Murphy (UCLA via North Texas): Started all 13 games for the Bruins as a sophomore, finishing second on the team with 9 tackles for loss and 5 sacks.

18. WR Jacob Cowing (Arizona via UTEP): Led the Pac-12 in receptions with 85, while finishing fourth in receiving yards (1,034) and tied for second in touchdown receptions (7).

20. OL Kingsley Suamataia (BYU via Oregon) Started all 12 games for BYU this season as a freshman. Named to several freshman All-American teams. May eventually move into the difference maker category in a season or two.

21. DE Chop Robinson (Penn State via Maryland): Earned second-team All-Big 10 honors as a sophomore in 2022 after recording 23 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, 4 sacks and a forced fumble.

23. WR Mario Williams (USC via OU): Started all season as a sophomore for the Trojans, catching 40 passes for 631 yards and 5 touchdowns.

24. DB Eli Ricks (Alabama via LSU): Started the season slow, but came on late in the year to become a very strong starter for the Tide. Declared for the NFL Draft following the season.

26. LB Mohamoud Diabate (Utah via Florida): A 12-game starter for the Utes, Diabate recorded 58 tackles, a team best 13.5 TFL and ranked sixth among Pac-12 linebackers with 5 sacks.

29. OL Tyler Steen (Alabama via Vanderbilt): Started all 13 games for the Tide at left tackle and was named All-SEC by the league's coaches. Played at the Senior Bowl this week and is getting ready for the NFL Draft after one season at Alabama.

31. LB Darius Muasau (UCLA visa Hawaii): Earned second-team All-Pac 12 honors after leading the Bruins with 91 tackles in his final season. Is currently getting ready for the NFL Draft.

34. WR Jadon Haselwood (Arkanas via OU): Led Arkansas with 59 receptions for 702 yards and 3 touchdowns.

36. WR Ricky Pearsall (Florida via Arizona State): A 10-game starter for the Gators who caught 33 passes for 661 yards and 5 touchdowns.

38. WR Tyler Hudson (Louisville via Central Arkansas): Led Louisville with 69 receptions for 1,034 yards and 2 touchdowns.

39. WR Mitchell Tinsley (Penn State via Western Kentucky): Led Penn State with 51 receptions for 577 yards and a team-best 5 touchdowns.

43. WR Antwane Wells (South Carolina via James Madison): Earned 1st-team All-SEC honors after leading the Gamecocks with 68 receptions for 928 yards and 6 touchdowns.

44. LB Eric Gentry (USC via Arizona State) - Emerged as a starter at inside linebacker as a sophomore and recorded 71 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, 2 sacks and 2 forced fumbles.

48. WR Charlie Jones (Purdue via Iowa): Earned All-America and first-team All-Big 10 honors after catching 110 passes for 1,361 yards and 12 touchdowns.

50. WR Johnny Wilson (Florida State via Arizona State): Earned second-team All-ACC honors as a redshirt sophomore, catching 43 passes for 897 yards and 5 touchdowns.

 

[cooleyo]

Still love ya, keep writing except on wrap your white and Lebron he sux

Yeah, LeBron “sux” I’m not even a LeBron fan, but to say he sucks tells us all we need to know about your basketball IQ.

 

[Williamhill2034]

The conversation shouldn't be about the top portal players vs. the best HS prospects.

It's about top Portal players and even medium-tier Portal players vs. marginal HS prospects.

That’s a conversation? Seems like a medium tier portal prospect largely trumps a marginal HS prospect. What am I missing? Obviously a top portal prospect tops a marginal HS prospect

Just so we are clear: Tarique Milton is medium tier and so is Diamonte Tucker Dorsey right?

 

[McGuapo]

That’s a conversation? Seems like a medium tier portal prospect largely trumps a marginal HS prospect. What am I missing? Obviously a top portal prospect tops a marginal HS prospect

Just so we are clear: Tarique Milton is medium tier and so is Diamonte Tucker Dorsey right?

Right. He’s not talking about replacing any of the 6.1 or 6.0 recruits, which would be the top 50. There’s a group of players that make up the other 15-20 or so recruits in the class that are much more long shots compared to top portal guys, at least as far as the stats go.

 

[Ketchum]

That’s a conversation? Seems like a medium tier portal prospect largely trumps a marginal HS prospect. What am I missing? Obviously a top portal prospect tops a marginal HS prospect

Just so we are clear: Tarique Milton is medium tier and so is Diamonte Tucker Dorsey right?

I'd have to think about it. Maybe Tucker-Dorsey. Not Milton.

 

[Ketchum]

Right. He’s not talking about replacing any of the 6.1 or 6.0 recruits, which would be the top 50. There’s a group of players that make up the other 15-20 or so recruits in the class that are much more long shots compared to top portal guys, at least as far as the stats go.

correct

 

[Ketchum]

The thing that has to eventually happen is that someone inside the program has to implore to Sarkisian the metrics involved and why they are more important than his own confirmation bias towards the kids they recruit.

This reminds me of the scenes in Moneyball.

 

[McGuapo]

The thing that has to eventually happen is that someone inside the program has to implore to Sarkisian the metrics involved and why they are more important than his own confirmation bias towards the kids they recruit.

This reminds me of the scenes in Moneyball.

View embedded media

Exactly. Most coaches live in long built silos and they have a really hard time looking outside. Also, most coaches probably think, just like the players, that they are the exception to the rule and can just coach the recruits up better than others.

 

[Ketchum]

Exactly. Most coaches live in long built silos and they have a really hard time looking outside. Also, most coaches probably think, just like the players, that they are the exception to the rule and can just coach the recruits up better than others.

bingo. they all believe they are the exceptions to the rule when the data certainly doesn't reflect that.

 

[TexasSwagger]

Good yes, benfica form, no

 

[boernefan]

All of these players would have made Texas better in 2022.

3. WR Jordan Addison (USC via Pittsburgh): Was named as a first-team All-Pac 12 player in 2022, despite batting an injury for more than a month during the middle of the season. Is expected to be a first-round pick in the upcoming NFL Draft.

7. LB Drew Sanders (Arkansas via Alabama): An All-American for the Hawgs in 2022, who finished as a finalist for the Butkus Award. Is expected to be a first- or second-round pick in the upcoming NFL Draft.

8. DL Akeem Mesidor (Miami via West Virginia) - Emerged as a key starter for the Hurricanes at DT, recording 38 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss and seven sacks as a sophomore.

9. DB Brandon Joseph (Notre Dame via Northwestern): Started all 10 games for the Irish as a junior in 2022, but wasn't quite the impact player for the Irish that he had been for the Wildcats in the previous two seasons.

11. WR Jermaine Burton (Alabama via Georgia): Was a 12-game starter for the Tide, catching 33 passes for 540 yards and 6 touchdowns as a junior.

12. Edge Jared Verse (FSU via Albany): Earned All-America honors in 2022 as a junior after recording 37 tackles, 16.5 TFL and 9 sacks.

13. OL O'Cyrus Torrence (Florida via Louisiana): Earned consensus All-America honors in 2022 and was a first-team All-SEC player. Is regarded as one of the best interior line players in the upcoming NFL Draft and was a standout at this week's Senior Bowl.

14. DB Christian Gonzalez (Oregon via Colorado): A first-team Al-Pac 12 selection in 2022 for the Ducks. Declared for the NFL Draft in December and is expected to be a first- or second-round pick.

16. DL Gabriel Murphy (UCLA via North Texas): Started in all 13 games this season for the Bruins as a sophomore, recording 38 tackles, 4 TFL and 1.5 sacks.

17. DL Grayson Murphy (UCLA via North Texas): Started all 13 games for the Bruins as a sophomore, finishing second on the team with 9 tackles for loss and 5 sacks.

18. WR Jacob Cowing (Arizona via UTEP): Led the Pac-12 in receptions with 85, while finishing fourth in receiving yards (1,034) and tied for second in touchdown receptions (7).

20. OL Kingsley Suamataia (BYU via Oregon) Started all 12 games for BYU this season as a freshman. Named to several freshman All-American teams. May eventually move into the difference maker category in a season or two.

21. DE Chop Robinson (Penn State via Maryland): Earned second-team All-Big 10 honors as a sophomore in 2022 after recording 23 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, 4 sacks and a forced fumble.

23. WR Mario Williams (USC via OU): Started all season as a sophomore for the Trojans, catching 40 passes for 631 yards and 5 touchdowns.

24. DB Eli Ricks (Alabama via LSU): Started the season slow, but came on late in the year to become a very strong starter for the Tide. Declared for the NFL Draft following the season.

26. LB Mohamoud Diabate (Utah via Florida): A 12-game starter for the Utes, Diabate recorded 58 tackles, a team best 13.5 TFL and ranked sixth among Pac-12 linebackers with 5 sacks.

29. OL Tyler Steen (Alabama via Vanderbilt): Started all 13 games for the Tide at left tackle and was named All-SEC by the league's coaches. Played at the Senior Bowl this week and is getting ready for the NFL Draft after one season at Alabama.

31. LB Darius Muasau (UCLA visa Hawaii): Earned second-team All-Pac 12 honors after leading the Bruins with 91 tackles in his final season. Is currently getting ready for the NFL Draft.

34. WR Jadon Haselwood (Arkanas via OU): Led Arkansas with 59 receptions for 702 yards and 3 touchdowns.

36. WR Ricky Pearsall (Florida via Arizona State): A 10-game starter for the Gators who caught 33 passes for 661 yards and 5 touchdowns.

38. WR Tyler Hudson (Louisville via Central Arkansas): Led Louisville with 69 receptions for 1,034 yards and 2 touchdowns.

39. WR Mitchell Tinsley (Penn State via Western Kentucky): Led Penn State with 51 receptions for 577 yards and a team-best 5 touchdowns.

43. WR Antwane Wells (South Carolina via James Madison): Earned 1st-team All-SEC honors after leading the Gamecocks with 68 receptions for 928 yards and 6 touchdowns.

44. LB Eric Gentry (USC via Arizona State) - Emerged as a starter at inside linebacker as a sophomore and recorded 71 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, 2 sacks and 2 forced fumbles.

48. WR Charlie Jones (Purdue via Iowa): Earned All-America and first-team All-Big 10 honors after catching 110 passes for 1,361 yards and 12 touchdowns.

50. WR Johnny Wilson (Florida State via Arizona State): Earned second-team All-ACC honors as a redshirt sophomore, catching 43 passes for 897 yards and 5 touchdowns.

I had #3 WR Jordon Addison, #7 LB Drew Sanders, # 8 DL Akeem Meisidor, #14 DB Christian Gonzales, #21 DE Chop Robinson, #26 LB Mohammoud Diabate, #31 LB Darius Muasau and #46 Charlie Jones on my list.
As I said I don't know that we could have promised all of these that they could have started but I would have liked us to try to recruit the top WR, LB, DL, DB and DE off that list. I think there might have been reasons that they did go after the rest.
#11 NSBTU (not significantly Better Than Us), #12 Edge Jared Verse (should have gone after him(My bad), #13 OL (Did no t want to run off our recruites, #16 DL (wouldn't have played much), #17 same as #16, (thought we had better), #20 Another OL, #23 another OU to USC, #24 (thought we had better),
#29 (Another OL), #34 (thought we had as good or better) #36 same, #38 ( who knows?) , #39 (thought we had as good or better), #43 (same), #44 (same), #50 Wish we would have gone after him, who knows.
When I say " Thought we had as good or better I am typing what I understand what our coaches thought. I don't know I am just a fan and what little I know I have read on here.
Thanks again Ketch.

 

[boernefan]

Exactly. Most coaches live in long built silos and they have a really hard time looking outside. Also, most coaches probably think, just like the players, that they are the exception to the rule and can just coach the recruits up better than others.

I think that is Sark"s biggest weakness, he believes his players will always be better next time. He has so much faith in his players.

 

[CenTex Horn]

1st? what do i win?

A free ticket to see Magic Mike's last dance, plus an empty plastic bag, in case you can wait to get to the restroom stall at any point surinb the film.

 

[boernefan]

That’s a conversation? Seems like a medium tier portal prospect largely trumps a marginal HS prospect. What am I missing? Obviously a top portal prospect tops a marginal HS prospect

Just so we are clear: Tarique Milton is medium tier and so is Diamonte Tucker Dorsey right?

My conversation was a question of how to top 50 rated high school recruits compared against the top 50 transfers.

I have no idea if Ketch will consider doing that.

 

[Williamhill2034]

The thing that has to eventually happen is that someone inside the program has to implore to Sarkisian the metrics involved and why they are more important than his own confirmation bias towards the kids they recruit.

This reminds me of the scenes in Moneyball.

View embedded media

Surely Sark knows Isaiah Neyor a top portal guy is better than any wr we recruited last year. Isn’t that why he got him?