Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Close, but no 2024 cigar?)

[Ketchum]

Exactly. He hasn't crashed the car. It's too early for trophies but give him a chance to finish the race.

I hope he wins the race. He'll have been a perfect answer for solving the first riddle. I don't think that would be the case for the second riddle.

 

[Anwar Richardson]

Good column. Lots of great stuff.

- Fox isn't going to budge until its made whole. Can't blame them for not giving away Texas and Oklahoma for nothing.

- Ochaun Mathis to Nebraska seems like a bad decision. That program was a mess.

- As a guy who bought Ja'Tavion Sanders stock when it was low, it is definitely paying off.

- That comment about not replacing the bubble made me laugh.

- There's no reason to root against Herman. Texas would kill for a 10-win season in 2023.

- That dunk was sick. The guy who got dunked on lost his girlfriend that night lol

- Busta Rhymes killed it on Scenario.

 

[azlonghorn]

@Ketchum I have no idea if this has been asked already.

Is your analysis of portal players focused only on the top 50 (per The Atlantic) or are your numbers based on all portal entrants and you just shared the top 50 below? If your analysis only looked at the best 50 players, then I would expect the outcome to be as rosy as you show. Do the same analysis for the top 500 and the results would be far different, I am guessing.

 

[Ketchum]

Good column. Lots of great stuff.

- Fox isn't going to budge until its made whole. Can't blame them for not giving away Texas and Oklahoma for nothing.

- Ochaun Mathis to Nebraska seems like a bad decision. That program was a mess.

- As a guy who bought Ja'Tavion Sanders stock when it was low, it is definitely paying off.

- That comment about not replacing the bubble made me laugh.

- There's no reason to root against Herman. Texas would kill for a 10-win season in 2023.

- That dunk was sick. The guy who got dunked on lost his girlfriend that night lol

- Busta Rhymes killed it on Scenario.

Mathis was literally one the worst producing players in the top 50.... the one guy everyone ended up focused on from around here.

That being said, it should give everyone a lot of hope about Mitchell.

 

[Ketchum]

@Ketchum I have no idea if this has been asked already.

Is your analysis of portal players focused only on the top 50 (per The Atlantic) or are your numbers based on all portal entrants and you just shared the top 50 below? If your analysis only looked at the best 50 players, then I would expect the outcome to be as rosy as you show. Do the same analysis for the top 500 and the results would be far different, I am guessing.

Just the top 50. I don't believe a ranked top 500 exists.

No one could possibly have expected the outcome of the top 50 to be this rosy. It's unprecedented.

 

[DubaiBob]

I don't know what you're talking about.

This is how TheAthletic rated the top 50 going into last season.

My apologies. I skimmed over and thought it was how you ranked them after the season. Maybe I should read next time 😄

 

[Buda Horn]

- That dunk was sick. The guy who got dunked on lost his girlfriend that night lol

I'll say this...

I will always take a guy on my team who challenges someone at the rim and gets posterized over someone who ducks out of the way because they are afraid of ending up on Sportscenter in a bad way.

Jarrett Allen is the best example of this. He has been dunked on a few times, but he has also rejected more than his fair share of dunk attempts at the rim, and he's never afraid to try for the block regardless of the outcome.

 

[boernefan]

A man died. He arrived at the pearly gates. St Peter told him he had 'qualified' to enter heaven. He went on to tell him that there was another option he could consider as well: Hell. The man said he would like to see both considering it would be his new place for the eternity. St Peter agreed.

On day one, his tour of Heaven was everything he thought it would be: beautiful, peaceful, etc. etc.

On day two he visited Hell. It was not what he expected at all: incredible parties, wild orgy's with beautiful women, booze, drugs, rock and roll...

His decision was required on day 3. After much consideration, he told St Peter heaven was great, but he was a Hell kind of guy. Poof, he immediately returned to Hell...but Hell turned out to be totally different: Agony, fire and brimstone, suffering galore, etc.

After a few minutes he saw the devil (aka Jimbo). He approached the devil and said, HEY!! what happened to the great parties, beautiful women, orgies, etc. I saw yesterday when I visited ?!?!?!

The devil replied: well,....yesterday you were a recruit.

Really a great joke, with a lot of truth to it. Fits the A&M school to a tee.

 

[RLong68]

(Buy) I was really starting to doubt that this team would make it past the first weekend for a while, but the team defense has returned to November form in the last few games. This team has a lot of guts. It feels like it should be an Elite 8 team.

I think you are getting too caught up game to game. They statement about not getting past first weekend came on the heels of the rout by Tennessee. Now it “feels like an Elite 8.” This team is fun to watch but certainly has its flaws.

 

[RLong68]

I'll be the first to admit that I didn't see the comeback against Kansas State coming from hundreds of miles away.

Honestly, if one had been paying attention they would have seen that unlike the first matchup, Nowell was struggling pretty badly in 1H. And KSU was up based more on some fools gold 3s they got in the first 20.

 

[Ketchum]

I think you are getting too caught up game to game. They statement about not getting past first weekend came on the heels of the rout by Tennessee. Now it “feels like an Elite 8.” This team is fun to watch but certainly has its flaws.

No, my statement came on the heels of another performance where the defense wasn't very good.

When this team gives up 80, and it was happening with some regularity until last week, it struggles.

 

[Ketchum]

Honestly, if one had been paying attention they would have seen that unlike the first matchup, Nowell was struggling pretty badly in 1H. And KSU was up based more on some fools gold 3s they got in the first 20.

correct, KSU wasn't even playing it's B- game and it led by double digits.

 

[McGuapo]

That car is shit bro, even the music couldn't save it. Lots of lonely boners in there. Makes my 1986 Ford Escort GT look baller. Except mine had one door that was a different color red than the rest of the car.

 

[rickbansal]

This is an interesting SI article on a lot of this

https://www.si.com/college/2023/02/03/big-12-sec-texas-longhorns-oklahoma-sooners-split-explainer

“Fox is the one who could potentially be harmed,” Thompson says. “Fox is going to want its pound of flesh. That can be accomplished in two ways: one, ESPN and Fox work out a trade of some sort; two, the conference, through the penalty fees from OU and Texas, compensate Fox.”

That is the real sticking point, those with direct knowledge of the negotiations say.

Various different SEC and Big 12 administrators describe Fox in an assortment of ways. The network is “the hurdle,” says one. It is the “missing piece,” says another.

“Everybody, conceptually, is pretty close to a deal,” says one Big 12 source. “The hangup is Fox wants some inventory. If they get that figured out, they’re on the one-yard line.”

The first solution that Thompson mentioned—a trade—has been discussed, those with knowledge of the negotiations say. That discussion centered around Texas’ future non-conference games against Michigan and Ohio State. The Longhorns are scheduled to host Michigan in 2024, play at Ohio State in 2025, host Ohio State in 2026 and play at Michigan in 2027.

An inventory trade of some sort—Fox gets a game that ESPN would own—was an option. That trade was denied.

That said, one source claims negotiations “are not dead” and that there still exists a window. “Generally speaking, everybody wants it to happen,” the person said.

The two networks have been at odds for years, each maneuvering behind the scenes to amass the most lucrative college football inventory and talent. The latest blow came at ESPN’s expense, when the network was cut out of the Big Ten’s new television package. Fox not only owns the biggest piece of that package but the network’s executives were integral in a process that saw its most significant rival eliminated.

Neither network wants to appear that it has taken a loss in this arrangement.

“There is history there,” says one official.

Another solution that has been discussed: Texas and Oklahoma playing road games at legacy Big 12 programs that, in theory, Fox would broadcast. Would that solve the inventory issue?

“I could see that happening and I could see Fox agreeing with that,” says Thompson.

But it’s not so easy. Big 12 schools, as well as Texas and Oklahoma, would have to rearrange schedules. The Sooners and Longhorns might want that agreement to be a home-and-home as well. Will their conference mates agree to such? It’s unclear.

Why is there so much effort being put into something that only moves the timeline by 1 year?? I cannot understand all of the angst people have for staying in the B12 through 2025. What exactly is the benefit of being in the SEC one year earlier? If our goal is to compete for a national championship, we have our chance with the playoff expansion to 12 teams.

 

[Yaomingjr]

I don't think ESPN is standing in the way of a move.

Thanks
But it was mentioned that Texas and OU were on their own when it comes to compensating Fox. Wouldn’t ESPN be able to contribute to that with the LHN funds going that way in some form?

 

[Ketchum]

That car is shit bro, even the music couldn't save it. Lots of lonely boners in there. Makes my 1986 Ford Escort GT look baller. Except mine had one door that was a different color red than the rest of the car.

I will say buying the SL500 in 2004 helped recruit the talent better than the 89 Tracer. True story.

 

[Ketchum]

Why is there so much effort being put into something that only moves the timeline by 1 year?? I cannot understand all of the angst people have for staying in the B12 through 2025. What exactly is the benefit of being in the SEC one year earlier? If our goal is to compete for a national championship, we have our chance with the playoff expansion to 12 teams.

Texas fans just want the hell out.

 

[Ketchum]

Thanks
But it was mentioned that Texas and OU were on their own when it comes to compensating Fox. Wouldn’t ESPN be able to contribute to that with the LHN funds going that way in some form?

I mean they could do a lot of things. Clearly, it's not happening at the moment. I don't think ESPN is in the same type of rush that Texas wantsa to be in.

 

[RLong68]

No, my statement came on the heels of another performance where the defense wasn't very good.

When this team gives up 80, and it was happening with some regularity until last week, it struggles.

Lol. We’ve given up 80 4 times in 23 games. It’s ok to say, “correct, my statement regarding not surviving first weekend did come immediately after the Tennessee game” because, well, it did

 

[eastexbigeasy]

The rankings were done after his injury.

Well but you still have to consider him top 50 right? That only changes the stats by one to injured (but it was a BIG one that got injured).

 

[TexasSwagger]

I don't think what is happening to Liverpool is really connected to Mane's departure, although we miss a lot of what he does.

For sure, Darwin Nunez not exactly ready yet doesn't help, I think he'll be fine though

 

[McGuapo]

He has completely unproven at building his own program and achieving success, year after year.

He's coaching another man's team, one that wouldn't remotely exist without that other man,

He’s literally never built anything from scratch as the head man that has really been successful. That’s a problem. This season is an outlier based on specific circumstances that were largely out of his control, so the data you can collect from it is skewed and limited.

 

[jspirohorn]

The average college football game has three separate 2:30 TV timeouts per quarter. That's $534,000+ per TV time out. That's $1,600,000 per quarter. That's $6,309,000 per game.

Over the course of 7 games, we're talking $45 million. At a bare minimum.

The buyout number won't be calculated based on the premium advertising revenue versus zero but rather the difference in advertising revenue from selling ads for UT vs. Tech as opposed to okie state vs. Tech.

 

[Touchstone]

Might very well be true, but Texas hates eating money and being wasteful, until it has to be.

Paying that much would be very short sighted politically, I suspect. All the public and leaked information is still part of an ongoing, hard ball negotiation at this point anyway. Ketch, what is the practical deadline for the all parties to make a deal and still let Texas and OU move to the SEC for the 2024 season? I assume we are not there yet but I could be wrong.

 

[boernefan]

The buyout number won't be calculated based on the premium advertising revenue versus zero but rather the difference in advertising revenue from selling ads for UT vs. Tech as opposed to okie state vs. Tech.

Texas also won’t be the average advertising revenue.

 

[mh48]

Slowest first in the history of 10TFTW.

whatever happen to the defensive back that committed to t c u and then decomitted and committed to us??

 

[Ketchum]

Lol. We’ve given up 80 4 times in 23 games. It’s ok to say, “correct, my statement regarding not surviving first weekend did come immediately after the Tennessee game” because, well, it did

Ahem... from last week's column...

"There's no shame in going to Knoxville this season and taking an L.

There's also no shame in how the men's basketball team has started Big 12 play, as the Longhorns exit the weekend tied for first place in the Big 12 standings with two other teams not named the Kansas Jayhawks.

Honestly, given the lack of success in the program over the last decade and the circumstances of his season, it's pretty damn remarkable that the players have kept the standard as high as they have.

Still, it's hard not to watch this team and wonder the following:

a. Can Texas stop good teams from scoring when they want?
b. Can Texas outscore good teams?

It's been an issue all season and not just when Chris Beard was still in the huddle. It started with the 85 points given up to Illinois in a loss. Then there was the 116 points given up in the team's next game on the schedule against a ranked team. The team responded against TCU in the next match-up against a ranked team in beating the Horned Frogs 79-75, but gave up 78 points a week later in a loss to Iowa State.

It happened again on Saturday in giving up 82 points to the Vols.

Texas just doesn't have enough offense in most games when this team gives up something close to 80 points. It asks too much of Marcus Carr when it happens, especially with Tyrese Hunter stuck in his funk (double digits in scoring in just 3 of his last 13 games).

There's just not enough shooting. Not enough natural scorers.

If this team is going compete for a conference title or make the Sweet 16, it's either going need to play better defense or find more scoring. At the moment, I'm not sure what is the most likely to occur."

 

[Ketchum]

Well but you still have to consider him top 50 right? That only changes the stats by one to injured (but it was a BIG one that got injured).

No, not if he tears his ACL and there are other really talented guys that can be put in his place.

 

[Ketchum]

For sure, Darwin Nunez not exactly ready yet doesn't help, I think he'll be fine though

Darwin is one of the few bright spots in the season.

 

[Ketchum]

Paying that much would be very short sighted politically, I suspect. All the public and leaked information is still part of an ongoing, hard ball negotiation at this point anyway. Ketch, what is the practical deadline for the all parties to make a deal and still let Texas and OU move to the SEC for the 2024 season? I assume we are not there yet but I could be wrong.

From the Big 12 and the SEC's perspective, they'd like to have had this resolved already for 2024.

The SEC will likely release its 2024 schedule in September.