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Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (Don't look now, but Dallas has become UT's safe space...)

Need to keep working to regain recruiting leadership in Texas. OOS recruiting is too risky to continuously rely on to fill gaps for failing to win in state recruiting battles. Kids whose parents can drive 3 - 4 hours to watch them play home games, kids who can see their girlfriend because she is only 3 - 4 hours drive away etc.
 
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As I crawl to the finish line in updating the latest installment of the Lone Star Recruiting Top 100 list this week, the combination of that process and the recently updated Rivals100 and Rivals250, there's no question that the dynamics within the 2020 recruiting class in the state of Texas are fresh on my mind.

With 192 days to go until the first signing day for the 2020 recruiting class, I thought an overview of where things stand in the heat of June would be a perfect place to focus this week, especially in light of a flurry of commitments in the last week from some of the state's top prospects.

So, here's what I've done... with my own rankings update not quite ready for release, I'm going to lean on last week's updated Rivals rankings as the centerpiece of the conversation I want to have.

Below is a list of each member of the Rivals250 from the state of Texas inside of its own geographical grouping within the state. The purpose of selecting these 36 prospects as the central focus of this week's column is that it casts a wide enough net that we can make a fair set of conclusions this year and where the most in-state talent resides in this class and how the Longhorns are doing with it.

Here's a hint - the Metroplex and Houston are dominating at historic levels, with 29 of the top 36 players in the Lone Star State currently residing in those two monster recruiting hotbeds.

Here's how it shakes out by region...

Austin/Central Texas

1. Quentin Johnson - WR - Temple (No.5 in Texas)
2. Hudson Card - QB - Lake Travis (No.11 in Texas)

East Texas

1. Garrett Hayes - OL - Athens (No.22 in Texas)
2. James Sylvester - DE - Newton (No.30 in Texas)
3. Jerrin Thompson - S - Lufkin (No.31 in Texas)

Greater Houston Area

1. Zach Evans - RB - North Shore (No.1 in Texas)
2. Demond Demus - WR - Tomball (No.2 in Texas)
3. Vernon Broughton - DT - Cy Ridge (No.4 in Texas)
4. Troy Omeire - WR - Fort Bend Austin (No.8 in Texas)
5. Josh White - LB - Cypress Creek (No.10 in Texas)

6. Chad Lindberg - OL - Clear Creek (No.13 in Texas)
7. Akinola Ogunbiyi - OL - Sugar Land Kempner (No.16 in Texas)
8. Bryson Washington - DB - C.E. King (No.20 in Texas)
9. Xavian Alford - DB - Pearland Shadow Creek (No.23 in Texas)
10. Avery Helm - CB - Fort Bend Marshall (No.24 in Texas)
11. Dwight McGlothern - Klein Oak (No.26 in Texas)
12. Malik Hornsby - QB .- Fort Bend Marshall (No.29 in Texas)

Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex

1. Jase McClellan - RB - Aledo (No.3 in Texas)
2. Drew Sanders - LB - Denton Ryan (No.6 in Texas)
3. RJ Mickens - DB - Southlake Carroll (No.7 in Texas)
4. Jaxon Smith-Njigba - WR - Rockwall (No.9 in Texas)

5. Prince Dorbah - DE - Highland Park (No.12 in Texas)
6. EJ Smith - Ath - Dallas Jesuit (No.14 in Texas)
7. Branard Wright - DT - Dallas Carter (No.15 in Texas)
8. Jalen Kimber - CB - Mansfield Timberview (No.17 in Texas)
9. Nate Anderson - OL - Frisco Reedy (No.18 in Texas)
10. Jake Majors - OL - Prosper (No.21 in Texas)
11. Ja'Quinden Jackson - QB - Duncanville (No.25 in Texas)

12. Courtland Ford - DT - Cedar Hill (No.27 in Texas)
13. Jahari Rogers - Ath - Arlington (No.28 in Texas)
14. Seth McGowan - RB - Mesquite Poteet (No.32 in Texas)
15. Chris Thompson - DB - Duncanville (No.33 in Texas)
16. Lorando Johnson - CB - Lancaster (No.34 in Texas)
17. Darius Snow - S - Lewisville Hebron


Panhandle

1. Jalin Conters - TE - Gruver (No.35 in Texas)

San Antonio

1. Jaylon Jones - CB - Cibolo Steele (No.19 in Texas)

* All players that are committed are listed in bold
** All players that are committed to Texas are listed in bold and underlined

No. 2 - The biggest single takeway ...

... I'm not sure I've ever seen as much parity in recruiting as we're seeing in this class with respect to the schools that are dominating the state.

While 21 of the top 36 prospects in the state have already committed, no single school currently has more than three at the moment, as Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and LSU each own 8.33-percent of the commitments given by members of the Rivals250.

Overall, 12 different programs have commitments from in-state members of the Rivals250: Alabama, Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Michigan State, LSU, North Carolina, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M and TCU.

When I talk about it being hand-to-hand combat inside the Lone Star State in recruiting, this extreme competitiveness is exactly what I'm speaking of. Not since the Class of 1997 can I remember when the state seemed to be this wide-open in recruiting, a time that represents the pre-Mack Brown era at Texas.

No. 3 - Breaking down Houston ...
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Total number of prospects on the list: 12

Total number of committed prospects on the list: 6

Leading the way: No school has more than two commitments in the top 15, but Texas A&M currently has commitments from the top two committed players on the list in Demus and Omeire.

What's left out there for Texas: RB Zach Evans, DE Vernon Broughton, OL Chad Lindberg, DB Bryson Washington and DB Xavion Alford.

Big H-Town Takeway: The Longhorns don't have a single kid committed from the Houston area, but even if you view Evans as a long-shot after recent events, the recruitments of Broughton, Lindberg, Washington and to slightly less extent Alford will define the amount of success the Texas coaches can claim in the group's strongest recruiting region. Losing Broughton would mean losing out on all of the top five kids from Houston, a number that represents the biggest of the big game-breakers from the area. You can make a case that he's the most important in-state recruit left on the board outside of the shadow Evans' recruitment brings.

No. 4 - Breaking down the Metroplex ...
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Total number of prospects on the list: 17

Total number of committed prospects on the list: 11

Leading the way: All three of Oklahoma's commitments on the list hail from the Metroplex, but with Texas sitting there with two commitments and a host of other schools pushing for more, it's hard to call the Sooners anything but a slight leader at the moment.

What's left out there for Texas: DE Prince Dorbah, RB, E.J. Smith, Ath Jahari Rogers and DB Chris Thompson

Big Metroplex Takeway: After not making much of a dent in the Metroplex over the course of his first five recruiting classes as a head coach, the biggest positive about in-state recruiting for the Longhorns right now might just be the work they’re doing in the Metroplex, especially with the recent commitment from Duncanville's Jackson. If the Longhorns find a way to land Dorbah, Rogers and Thompson ... a very realistic goal ... you'd have to say that the strength of this in-state class is the kids from this critical region.

No. 5 - The ace up the Dallas sleeve for Tom Herman ...

In the immediate aftermath of the commitment from Duncanville's Ja'Quinden Jackson, it was impossible to not acknowledge that the Longhorns had been able to tap into a Reginald Samples program in recruiting for one of the few times in the last 20 years or so.

For whatever reasons, the Longhorns never really made a dent at Dallas Lincoln or Duncanville during Samples' run of high-level coaching, but that seems to have changed, in no small part because Tom Herman hired Samples' son Ra’Shaad as his assistant wide receivers coach.

I'll raise my hand and fully admit that I don't think that the Longhorns would have landed Jackson without the younger Samples, who is starting to earn quite a rep in the area as a recruiter for the Longhorns, despite not being able to leave campus to do so.

Consider the comments from UT's latest commitment - 2021 wide receiver Quaydarius Davis, a likely state top-10 talent from Dallas Skyline, who gave Herman a verbal pledge on Sunday.

"Coach (Rashaad) Samples played a big role," Davis told Rivals.com. "He's a cool dude and I like Coach Samples a lot. He hears me and I love how he runs the game. He keeps it 100 with me."

"I wanted to commit and get a decision out of the way. My family, my momma, we all knew where we wanted to go. I love Texas and I've been loving Texas for a while, so why not get it out of the way and commit."

Once again, Texas has a guy in the support staff tearing it up in ways that you'd expect from some of the position coaches ... who ... yanno ... can actually leave campus. If there's an area where Herman is truly outclassing his competition, it's hard not to point to his support staff hires as perhaps his best calling card.

In fact, the word is out about Samples. Enjoy him while Texas has him because it's impossible to believe he won't have major college coaching opportunities in front of him in the near future.

No. 6 – BUY or SELL …
BUY-SELL.gif



Buy or SELL: The Big 12 will have the best QB play in the country and it won’t be terribly close?

(Sell) The Big 12 might actually end up with the best quarterback play in the country, but even if it does, it won't be by runaway margins. While I love me some Sam Ehlinger and Jalen Hurts, I don't love anyone else.

Buy or SELL: If both Hudson Card and Ja'Quinden Jackson sign, Texas will have the deepest quarterback room it has had in the last two decades?

(Sell) The 2002 team had the following quarterbacks on the roster: Chris Simms (No. 1 quarterback in the country in 1999), Chance Mock (No. 3 quarterback in the country in 2000), Matt Nordgren (No.1 quarterback in Texas in 2001) and Vince Young (No. 1 quarterback in the country in 2002). With all due respect to the current quarterbacks and the future quarterbacks, that run of recruiting from 1999-2002 was all-time great.

Buy or SELL: Were y'all surprised that we didn't get Damieon George? What went wrong and do we have a chance to pull him away from Alabama?

(Sell) How could you be surprised after what happened with Zach Evans? If George was seriously looking at Texas, the Longhorns would have been in Evans’ top five (IMO). That the Longhorns were nowhere to be found was a dead giveaway for the position Texas was in with George.

Buy or SELL: Texas goes after Mike Sherman as an analyst?

(Sell) I'd pay the dude a million bucks a year to evaluate offensive linemen, but Sherman is an Aggie and he's not burning every bridge he has in College Station for a paycheck that he doesn't really need. I love your burning hunger, though.

Buy or SELL: We should be worried about the front 7 of the Texas defense this fall?

(Buy) There's nothing wrong with being worried about unknowns and this Texas front seven is full of unknowns.

Buy or SELL: Negative recruiting is apparently working well against Texas. It is imperative we shut it down by beating both LSU and OU this year.

(Sell) How the hell are you ever going to shut down negative recruiting? I don't know what to tell you outside of letting you know that recruiting isn't for the meek. Negative recruiting is always evolving into different talking points over time, but it's always existent. You win those games you mentioned for a million different reasons, but the idea that you can stop negative recruiting with positive results is misguided.

Buy or SELL: Is the North Shore to Texas pipeline as dry as ever?

(Buy) It's pretty damn dry right now. Cory Redding's commitment and the pipeline it created feels like a very long time ago.

Buy or SELL: Texas currently has no WR commits. The Horns get at least two out the three of Johnny Wilson (6.0), Quentin Johnston (5.9), Javian Hester (5.9)? Texas gets commitments from at least two of the following five ATH's: Mookie Cooper (5.9), E.J. Smith (5.9), Jahari Rogers (5.8), Devon Achane (5.7), Kitan Crawford (5.6)? Texas gets commitments from at least two of the three of Kelee Ringo (6.1), Bijan Robinson (6.0), Chad Linberg (5.9)?

(Buy) All of it.

Buy or SELL: Visits in November mean more than visits in June?

(Sell) Most kids would rather not have to deal with visits and decision-making during the season, which means more minds are made up than not by the time you get to November. The old concepts that used to apply during the month of January aren't nearly as tried and true.

Buy or SELL: If Texas was to land Bijan Robinson while Zach Evans goes elsewhere, it would parallel back when Texas landed Jamaal Charles and Adrian Peterson went to Oklahoma?

(Sell) It can't be parallel because the situations aren't the same, starting with the fact that Peterson and Charles were in different classes (2004 vs. 2005).

No. 7 - The stage is set for KD ...

The Golden State dynasty finds itself fully against the ropes going into Monday's showdown in Toronto, but it's possible the only possible answer for its troubles is picking himself up off the canvas.

Yes, Kevin Durant practiced on Sunday, which would seem to indicate that he might just enter this series with his team down 3-1 and needing to win twice on the road to emerge from this season with the first three-peat since the Shaq/Kobe Lakers.

Is there enough time or enough margin of room for error?

That remains to be seen, but the value of Durant has never been more evident than it is right now. This Golden State team without Durant simply isn't capable of handling the Raptors and when you consider that he might depart the franchise after this series, no matter how it goes, the stakes couldn't be higher.

It has Durant in a position where he could actually win Finals MVP if he could lead the Warriors out of this mess, even if he only plays in three games, but we're a long way from that.

Before you can get three, you have to get one. Before you can play three, you have to play in one.

Get your popcorn ready.

No. 8 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …

... Kawhi Leonard is pretty damn good. He ain't returning to Toronto, no matter what, is he?

... Has anyone in the realm of sports ever been more dominant than Rafael Nadal has been in his career at the French Open?

... I didn't watch a lot of college baseball this weekend, but what Vanderbilt's Kumar Rocker did in throwing a 19-strikeout no-hitter was a thing of absolute beauty.

... Johnny Manziel wants to play in the XFL? Honestly, who cares? No offense to Johnny, but 2012 was a long time ago. If I'm Houston XFL coach June Jones, I'd prefer someone that hasn't been a football bum for the last half-decade as my quarterback, assuming I have any options at all.

... I'm usually an optimist, but USA soccer is absolute garbage right now.

... I haven't moved on from last weekend.
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No. 9 - The List: Top 10 TV Shows I've never watched ...

With the release of the Deadwood movie on HBO this month, I'm reminded that there's still plenty of TV out there for me to consume during this time of the year when I don't have many shows that I'm into that are currently running.

Therefore, don't yell at me, but here's the list of the best shows on TV that I've never seen.

10. Homeland
9. Killing Eve
8. Barry
7. The Shield
6. The Americans
5. Oz
4. The Office (UK)
3. The West Wing
2. Deadwood
1. Mad Men

No. 10 – And Finally ...


During a week of incredible scenes and stories remembering the 75th anniversary of D-Day, this was the single best thing I watched all week.

Here's to our Greatest Generation.

Whats an asst wide receivers coach?
 
Almost thought we were going to escape without a Liverpool reference … but not just yet.

Do you have a cricket team from AsiaPac that you are in love with? Just asking so we can brace ourselves in advance.
 
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I knew you hadn't seen Killing Eve when Villanelle didn't make your list of best TV characters of the last 20 years (or something similar) @Ketchum .

You might include NoHo Hank after you watch Barry, as well.

You can run through those two – which have some similarities, for sure – in a couple of weeks.

Very short, fast-paced, and enjoyable.

Please report back when you do!
 
Wait Chance Mock was the # 3 rated QB OMG that's crazy. KD should sit out.. You can't play 3 days ago when they needed to avoid 3-1 but now you're ready?
 
I think you are sleeping on Purdy, and Brewer very well could be damn good this season. I think the top 5 of Ehlinger, Hurts, Purdy, Brewer and Bowman will provide the best collective group of QB play this season.
Well, they do play against Big 12 defenses every week...
 
Not sure Sherman "is an aggie." In a 40 year career he spent all of 4 mediocre seasons in that sh*t hole before being unceremoniously canned. I'm not sure he has some deep-rooted ties to aggy. You make it sound like he has some overwhelming need to keep his foot in the door at aggy which seems a bit silly.
He's an Aggie.
 
Wait Chance Mock was the # 3 rated QB OMG that's crazy. KD should sit out.. You can't play 3 days ago when they needed to avoid 3-1 but now you're ready?
Chance was a monster recruit until Texas started collecting No.1 overall players.;)
 
He's an Aggie.

Because you say so? You make it sound like he's R.C. Slocum, or even Jackie Sherrill. Meanwhile, I've never gotten some sort of impression that he bleeds aggy maroon.
 
The best from 327 M (United States) is superior to the best from 29 M (Texas) or 7.2 M (Dallas).

Ketchum: "I'm not sure that's the proper way of viewing it."

It is in this case, to the best of my understanding. Maybe I should have called it set theory instead of math.

When the set United States (A containing more than B containing C) contains the subset Texas (B containing C) and the sub-subset Dallas (C), the best of the United States (greater than B containing C) must be greater than the best of the subset Texas (B containing C) and the sub-subset Dallas (C).

Unless, if in every case the best athlete is in Dallas, then Dallas' best athletes can equal, but not surpass, Texas' (which includes it) and United States', which also includes it. If the best athlete is ever in the United States but not Dallas, the best of the United States is superior to the best of Dallas. If the best is ever in the United States but not Texas, the United States is superior to Texas, and by extension Dallas.

Student-reading-books.jpg


Or maybe I'm wrong. :)

Hook'em Horns!
 
Because you say so? You make it sound like he's R.C. Slocum, or even Jackie Sherrill. Meanwhile, I've never gotten some sort of impression that he bleeds aggy maroon.
Do you think he values his time and the relationships he has in CS?
 
Ketchum: "I'm not sure that's the proper way of viewing it."

It is in this case, to the best of my understanding. Maybe I should have called it set theory instead of math.

When the set United States (A containing more than B containing C) contains the subset Texas (B containing C) and the sub-subset Dallas (C), the best of the United States (greater than B containing C) must be greater than the best of the subset Texas (B containing C) and the sub-subset Dallas (C).

Unless, if in every case the best athlete is in Dallas, then Dallas' best athletes can equal, but not surpass, Texas' (which includes it) and United States', which also includes it. If the best athlete is ever in the United States but not Dallas, the best of the United States is superior to the best of Dallas. If the best is ever in the United States but not Texas, the United States is superior to Texas, and by extension Dallas.

Student-reading-books.jpg


Or maybe I'm wrong. :)

Hook'em Horns!
you're wrong for a variety of reasons.
 
Buy or SELL: Texas currently has no WR commits. The Horns get at least two out the three of Johnny Wilson (6.0), Quentin Johnston (5.9), Javian Hester (5.9)? Texas gets commitments from at least two of the following five ATH's: Mookie Cooper (5.9), E.J. Smith (5.9), Jahari Rogers (5.8), Devon Achane (5.7), Kitan Crawford (5.6)? Texas gets commitments from at least two of the three of Kelee Ringo (6.1), Bijan Robinson (6.0), Chad Linberg (5.9)?
(Buy) All of it.

Man, I hope you're right on that.


BTW, just finished Season 3 of Homeland. It's very good IMO.
 
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Nothing like a persuasive substantive argument to disprove one based in logic.
Your logic is built on a house of cards. I don't have time this morning to sit down and break it all down for you, but if I get a chance later, I will.

In the meantime, maybe consider the faulty house of cards your entire game of math rests on, in addition to the wildcards that exist across the country with respect to the weight to the value of those millions.
 
Texas' in-state recruiting is such that without out of state success, Herman won't last at Texas.

Based on your comment, you seem to be expecting a weak instate class...is that right? I thought you felt better about this year...
 
No game of thrones on that list? Just finished what’s out for bad blood. Really liked that show.

Tom needs to finish stem the summer strong on the recruiting trail

I can’t wait for this season of football to get here!!!
 
Based on your comment, you seem to be expecting a weak instate class...is that right? I thought you felt better about this year...
The combined in-state +. out of state haul will b strong. I thought this would be a class with the weight of Evans in it.
 
No game of thrones on that list? Just finished what’s out for bad blood. Really liked that show.

Tom needs to finish stem the summer strong on the recruiting trail

I can’t wait for this season of football to get here!!!
The list is a Top 10 shows I HAVEN'T SEEN SEEN.
 
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It's math. The best from 327 M (United States) is superior to the best from 29 M (Texas) or 7.2 M (Dallas).

Hook'em Horns!
My favorite thing about this entire thread is this post.

It's math.

Now... there is absolutely a conversation to be had about the virtues of out of state recruiting and it's value to the program as a whole, which I have been cheerleading for years.

However, you can't say it's math and then list the wrong set of data points in the process.

Your numbers are whack and appear to be based on overall population numbers.

The truth of the matter is that based on 2017 numbers, there were projected to be 76,119,000 children between the ages of 0-18 in the USA, with Texas having nearly 7,500,000.

Once you strip the women and younger children out of the pool of numbers, things end up being much narrower.

Meanwhile, if we apply the same to each and every state to get to the larger number, are we valuing every single male in every other state the same as a kid from Texas? Alaska is 1:1? Idaho is 1:1?

Again, you and I don't disagree on the larger discussion, but I'm not going to let the discussion be framed as a lecture based on data when the data being used is incorrect.
 
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