Great post. This entire program has still yet to learn how to do those things. It'll have to happen on the fly.
Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (How to get to nine wins in 2016)
- Thread starter Ketchum
- Start date
"...those who know Strong that suggest he is very bullish on the season..."
Charlie was also confident heading into South Bend last year. I don't think his big picture view is a good indicator of reality.
Charlie was also confident heading into South Bend last year. I don't think his big picture view is a good indicator of reality.
If you are waiting on him to say, "We're terrible", you are going to be waiting a long time.
Serious Buy or Sell Question to the thread: Does Spieth make a full recovery and contend in majors as early as this year?
I sure hope he does. He's a great ambassador for UT and the sport.
I sure hope he does. He's a great ambassador for UT and the sport.
Could the 2016 Texas Longhorns be the 2011 Kansas State Wildcats?
When trying to piece together a map that might allow for Charlie Strong’s third team in Austin to pull off the type of season that will jump-start some on-field momentum within the program, while also sending the off-field momentum in recruiting to the moon, the foundation of Bill Snyder’s team from five seasons ago makes as much sense from an emulation standpoint that can I find in recent Big 12 memory.
Over the course of the last five seasons in the Big 12, a total of 17 teams have won more than nine games in a season (including bowl games) and the average profile of the passing attack from those teams looks like this:
290 of 458 attempts for 3,898 yards, 32 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
Just a season ago, the Longhorns as a team posted the following passing numbers:
139 of 252 attempts for 1,751 yards, 9 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.
It goes without saying that Sterlin Gilbert would need to be an absolute witch-doctor to churn out more than 2,000 more yards and 23 more touchdowns in the passing game with the parts with which he’s working in terms of personnel, so any path the Longhorns take to get to a truly memorable season is going to need to be a little unorthodox by usual Big 12 standards.
And that brings me back to the 2011 Kansas State Wildcats.
Only three times in the last five seasons has a team in the Big 12 won nine games and passed for fewer than 3,000 yards as a team, but only one team has pulled it off with fewer than 2,000 yards passing.
Before turning into a Heisman Trophy candidate as a senior, Collin Klein was a blood and guts player that looked a lot more like Tyrone Swoopes than the player he eventually turned into as a senior when he improved his passer rating by 25 points and his average yards per attempt by a full two yards. The Wildcats got by that season on a running game that produced 2,411 yards and 33 touchdowns, along with a defense that ranked only 72nd in the nation.
It actually defies conventional logic that this team was able to win 10 games and remain ranked in the national top 20 for most of the season, especially when you consider that it won only one game in four match-ups against ranked teams. However, there were three things that Wildcats team did that the Longhorns would do well to copy.
1. It won every game it was supposed to.
The Wildcats didn’t win any games they probably shouldn’t have, but they won all 10 games they were supposed to, including all nine games against unranked teams.
2. It was 8-1 in games decided by less than seven points.
That included a three-point win over Eastern Kentucky, a four-point win at Miami and a four-point win in Austin. This was a team that did its job in the fourth quarter of games by seemingly making almost all of the biggest players in each game.
3. It went 6-1 at home.
The only loss at Bill Snyder Stadium that season was a blowout loss to Oklahoma, but everything else turned out roses in its seven home games.
When looking at this year’s Longhorn team, it’s impossible to project any offensive numbers and it might be asking too much of this young defensive unit to play like a national top 50 unit. If you look all over the field, you’ll find players that will flash, but this almost certainly will not be a flashy team.
However, it very well might be a team no one wants a piece of at the end of the season if a lot of its young talent on the field matures. Much has been made of this year’s first five games of the season, but if Texas can get through the Oklahoma game without the program burning in flames, it faces a road schedule that features Kansas State, Texas Tech and Kansas down the stretch.
In theory, that’s pretty damn manageable.
Home games against Baylor, West Virginia and TCU will likely determine the quality of this season every bit as much as those games against Notre Dame, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma.
Man, no matter how you line it up, the 2016 schedule is a bear to tackle. That’s the thing that sticks out more than anything when trying to figure out how this 5-7 team makes the leap up to the eight- or nine-win range. There’s just one tricky game after another, but the recipe isn’t likely to change.
Win every game against borderline top-25 team and below. Win fourth quarters. Win at home.
Is that asking for too much or not nearly enough?
No. 2 – Three quick thoughts on the Notre Dame game changes ...
1. It’s bold. After the embarrassment in South Bend a season ago, the Longhorns are moving their season-opener into a stand-alone primetime spot where the entire college football universe will be watching. If the Longhorns aren’t much, much, much more competitive than they were a year ago against this team, the established tone of the season will not be good for Strong. This was already the case before the move to Sunday night, but this is as primetime as it will get all season for this program, which makes the stakes higher.
2. Charlie Strong really likes this team. Over the last two months, there have been whispers from those who know Strong that suggest he is very bullish on the season and isn’t nearly as concerned about this team’s question marks as say ... well … me. If Strong really felt like there was a chance his team would embarrass him, I think he’d have told his superiors that everyone should just leave things alone. All signs point to Strong embracing the raised stakes.
3. I understand that this will make attending the game more challenging for many out of town fans, but with Labor Day the following Monday, many of those concerns will be mitigated. The bottom line is that this is the type of exposure that very few programs in America will have in any game this season because of the exclusive position in the opening weekend of the season. There value of moving the game greatly outweighs costs.
No. 3 – For Shane Buechele’s sake ...
Let’s hope he never goes through what Tyrone Swoopes has gone through from a coaching standpoint over the course of the next four years.
One of the more under-appreciated stories of this off-season is that for all of the experience Swoopes brings to the table at the quarterback position after the last three seasons, he’s going through his fifth offense and sixth offensive coordinator in the last five seasons going back to his senior year at Whitewright.
Check out the roll-call.
2012 Whitewright
2013: Texas (Major Applewhite/Darrell Wyatt)
2014: Texas (Shawn Watson)
2015: Texas (Shawn Watson/Jay Norvell)
2016: Texas (Sterlin Gilbert)
When you consider the fact that Swoopes was a massive project at the quarterback position to begin with, you can make the case that the constant change around him has made the chances of him hitting his ceiling as a player astronomically harder to achieve.
No. 4 – Scattershooting on the Longhorns ...
… Two more practices and the spring game to go. There’s not much time to leave an impression if you haven’t already on this team.
… You have to wonder if Shane Buechele is taking reps with the first-team if he hasn’t already gained enough footing on Tyrone Swoopes to justify just giving him the job? If you’re Swoopes, you need to dominate the off-season drills the way a senior should the rest of the way.
… Folks seem pretty confident about the starting offensive line, but how good of a look at it are you really getting when it is practicing against a defensive line that has just as many questions? I wonder if the first truly good defensive lineman on the college level that Zach Shackelford is going to see is against Notre Dame?
… One crazy thing about the flood of defensive linemen coming in is that I’m really not sure of the best way to rank them in terms of early contributions, although based on his thirst for 400-pound dudes, it sounds like Vance Bedford might rank them based on weight.
No. 5 – Texas baseball this weekend in a gif ...
No. 6 – Buy or sell …
(As always, these are questions submitted by Orangebloods subscribers)
BUY or SELL: Shane Buechele will be starting by the OU game?
(Buy) That’s been my position for a while now.
BUY or SELL: Two or more of the OL make all-Big 12 second team or better?
(Sell) I’ll absolutely buy Connor Williams as a player that earns that type of recognition, but I’m not willing to go that far with anyone else at this point.
BUY or SELL: Two Texas Longhorns will be drafted to the NFL this year?
(Buy) Hassan Ridgeway and … somebody.
BUY or SELL: Having three offensive coordinators has really stunted the growth of Swoopes and Heard?
(Buy) See above. Heard has been with four offenses and four different coordinators in the last four years, which is just one year and one coordinator behind Swoopes. Those are bad numbers.
BUY or SELL: Even in a pass happy conference our D will be in the top 30 national in passing defense.
(Sell) I’m more concerned about the front four not getting to the quarterback and causing the secondary to look worse than it is than I am confident that this group will have that type of season. It might still be a year away.
BUY or SELL: 1. We convert 40% of our third downs on offense and we make a stop on 40% of third downs on defense?
(Sell) It’s possible the offense could get close to that number, which would rank in the top 50 or so in the nation, but I’m not willing to say it can jump up 52 spots just because. On the other hand, I think the Longhorns will be better than 40-percent on defense.
BUY or SELL: Walker Little is the most important (or second most depending on how you value Marvin Wilson) recruit in this class? Think about it.
(Buy) I won’t argue with you on being the second-most valuable, but there are about four or five kids with whom you can make that claim. None rank higher than Wilson, who would be starting for the Longhorns right now if he was on campus.
BUY or SELL: The lack of a kicking game should concern Horns fans as much as the lack of depth on either line?
(Buy) I’m not sure Charlie has bothered to learn the names yet of the guys he has to work with right now.
BUY or SELL: If Poona Ford was four inches taller he'd be getting a lot more positive attention?
(Buy) That would make him into a completely different animal as a player.
BUY or SELL: Ken Starr will only allow BU athletes accused of sexual assault to be barred from competition if there is a stain on their victim's little blue cocktail dress?
(Sell) He cared about blue dresses 20 years ago, he cares about nothing but athletics now.
No. 7 – On the day Jordan Spieth became the Jordan meme ...
I’m still stunned and it’s been more than three hours since the meltdown on hole No. 12 went down.
To see Jordan Spieth have a meltdown that Phil Mickelson at the US Open would blush over was just so stunning.
Stun. Stunning. Stunned.
I can’t use those words enough.
The thing that stands out to me in the aftermath is the list of icons in all sports that have gone through moments like this. It’s yet another reminder that when sports gives us the agony of defeat and the thrill of victory at the same time, it can provide memories that can’t be replicated.
Man … just … man.
No. 8 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
… Danny Willett seems like a good dude and he’s a hell of a player, but I’m sorry, he reminds me of Theon Greyjoy every time I look at him.
… The Warriors are one win away from 73 after taking down the Spurs on Sunday night. A year ago few would have called it, but the Warriors are on the brink of going down as an all-time team if they can finish the deal in the post-season. I have a feeling that the seven-game series we might have later in the spring between the Warriors and Spurs will be pretty epic.
… RIP, former Saints defensive lineman Will Smith. What a horrible way for one’s life to end.
… I wonder if we’ll be talking about Colorado’s Trevor Story in July?
… It’s very, very early, but iof Vince Velasquez’s first impression means anything, he might be the best thing about the 2016 Phillies.
… I had zero interest in Manny Pacquiao/Timothy Bradley III. Less than none.
… The difference between No.1-No.4 in the EPL is the same as the difference between No.4 and No.11.
… That’s twice in five weeks that Houston has had two points ripped from its hands in the final minutes of the early MLS season. Meanwhile, Dallas isn’t nearly the same team without Mauro Diaz as it is with him on the field.
No. 9 – The List: Merle
With the passing of Merle this week, I thought I would re-release the Top 10 I made more than a year ago.
I hope those of you who loved Merle like I did enjoy the walk down memory lane.
Last five songs out: The Fightin' Side of Me, Sing Me Back Home, The Bottle Let Me Down, That's The Way Love Goes and You Take Me For Granted
10. Pancho and Lefty
Yes, the song was written by Townes Van Zandt and Merle only has his one section of the song, but he brings it home with one his best verses of his career.
9. Footlights
One of the most underrated songs in his playbook.
8. Misery and Gin
My favorite song from the outstanding Back to the Barrooms album.
7. I Take a Lot of Pride in What I Am
One of his best from the 60s.
6. If We Make it Through December
A heartbreaking tale about a man that's recently lost his job and can't buy his kid a present for Christmas.
5. Big City
When a lot of his peers were stuck in music purgatory in the early 80s, Merle was putting out top-shelf music and the album that was named the same might have been his best.
4. Okie From Muskogee
A piece of pop culture Americana for sure, but it's hard for me to get past the disconnect that was Haggard's real life and the song that he wrote that doesn't speak for him personally. I just couldn't put it in the top three.
3. Branded Man
It's Merle at his best, singing about an ex-con's terrifying scarlet letter that follows him at every turn.
2. Mama Tried
A lot of people are going to cry foul over me not putting this song in the No. 1 slot and it's a deserving champion, but there can only be one No. 1 in my heart.
1. Silver Wings
A very personal choice for me, as this song played at the funeral of one of my best friend's father when I was fresh out of high school.
No. 10 - And finally …
I just wanted to take a few moments to say a few words about Haruka Weiser, who was taken from this world way too early last week in the first murder on the University of Texas campus in 50 years.
The more we learn about Weiser, the more my heart breaks for everyone who was ever touched by the 18-year old student from Oregon and everyone whose lives might have been destined to intertwine with her had the events from last week not taken place.
Weiser seems like the kind of young woman that we should all be proud to see our young daughters become, while the grace that her parents have shown in the aftermath of their loss is almost impossible to comprehend. Per the Dallas Morning news, Weiser’s family stressed in a statement that they “remain steadfast in our desire to honor Haruka’s memory through kindness and love. Not violence.”
As the father of a two-year old daughter, watching all of this unfold has been like looking through the window of every father’s worst nightmare.
All I can think off is that I hope if there’s another world out there beyond this one, I hope she’s treated a hell of a lot better than she ultimately was in this life.
Rest in peace, Haruka.
There is and she will be.
So does writing about our (less than ) .500 football team, but you do it anyway.Yeah, writing about sub .500 teams winning two of three at Kansas State makes for boring copy.
I can't think of a cute retort. You win. I concede defeat.So does writing about our (less than ) .500 football team, but you do it anyway.
We'll be in much better shape when Buechele and Ehliger are pushing each other.
Winning at Miami that year was a mini-accomplishment, similar to at Cal.. No Notre Dame, though. No doubt.
My that is a blast from the past. Some of those names.. Desean Hales? Kenny V. Whaley at rb? I had such high hopes for that team, especially given the 4 td's by Gilbert.
Speaking of those 4 td's... What exactly happened with that team? I literally can't explain it myself. I definitely don't remember. Would that team have beat last year's team?
He at least thought it a few times last year. It was a Baylor quarterback disaster worse than their own that kept them from a hard-earned 4-8.
Very nice statement regarding Haruka Weiser, Ketch. Bravo!
Yes she was taken way too early and in a very cruel way. I see her face in the pictures and I cannot believe it, she looked so beautiful and so young, had her whole life ahead of her.
May she RIP
Yes she was taken way too early and in a very cruel way. I see her face in the pictures and I cannot believe it, she looked so beautiful and so young, had her whole life ahead of her.
May she RIP
I was pretty sure your List would be Merle, thank you. Sing Me Back Home Has to be in the top 10 in my opinion.
Merle has about 30 songs that have to be in the top 10.
