ADVERTISEMENT

Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (It's weird, it's ironic... it's happening)

Ketchum

Resident Blockhead
Staff
May 29, 2001
294,596
475,114
113
While we all wait for whatever happens with Sillsbee impact offensive line prospect Patrick Hudson to actually happen, I think it’s probably a good idea to acknowledge the elephant in the corner of the room.

The entire situation that has unfolded in the last month with Baylor signees wanting out of their letters of intent and the almost inconceivable pot of gold that has fallen into Charlie Strong’s lap is weirdly ironic on about 100 different levels.

It’s not just that the Longhorns are benefitting from the fallout of a conference rival that sits 100 miles north up I-35 or the fact that the Longhorns weren’t really factors with the Duvernay brothers in the heat of last year’s recruiting or the fact that all of this is unfolding less than two months before August workouts begin.

Those three things alone have made for a weird situation. What makes it soaking wet with irony is the juxtaposition between the two programs in terms of the ideologies of the two programs away from the field.

Call it 5 Core Values vs. No Core Values.

While Art Briles fostered a program with absolutely zero regard to the safety and protection of women, Strong was panned a few years ago when he arrived at Texas for trying to foster a program that placed the safety and protection as a core value and principle. I’m not trying to play the moral superiority card between two men because that can be a dangerous game to play when discussing any two people (although if you want to say Strong is a better human being because he’s never been an enabler of sexual assault … fair enough), but I am absolutely pointing out the moral foundations between the two programs.

There’s no such thing as a college football program living up on a hill above all others, but while Baylor player after Baylor player has been involved in one sexual/domestic assault situation after another, as far as I can recall. on;y one UT player has been arrested since July 24, 2014. That’s the day wide receivers Kendall Sanders and Montrel Meander were arrested and charged with felony sexual assault.

What stands out nearly two years later about that day was that while I was in the middle of writing a column on why Strong had to dismiss both players from the program right away, Strong dropped the hammer by kicking both players to the curb before I could even post my column about him needing to do just that.

Not only does no means no for Strong, but the zero tolerance attitude he preached was backed by swift action. Although some of the results are no doubt protected by sheer luck, the fact that we’re approaching two years without a major Longhorns player arrest is worth acknowledgment, especially when Strong’s power play with the degenerates of the program was fodder for the national media from coast to coast.

Two years later, here we are and to add even more irony to the equation, none of these players who have left Baylor to join Strong’s program have done so because of moral codes. Despite a losing record on the field in two years, Strong has created momentum in recruiting that has opened up eyes across this state. None of what has happened this week happens if the Longhorns struggle down the stretch in the final days of the 2016 recruiting year. By closing the way that it did, Texas re-emerged as a very attractive option for players this month who didn’t come close to signing with the Longhorns four months ago.

It doesn’t always make perfect sense, but if Strong was at the craps table in Vegas right now, it would probably be a good idea for all of us to put our money down with his bets because things have been coming up roses for him since his hire of Sterlin Gilbert in December, which is super ironic when you consider Gilbert comes from the Art Briles coaching tree.

What’s happening right now doesn’t make perfect sense, but it’s happening and a recruiting class that finished No. 12 in the Rivals rankings in February is rising to as high as No. 4 at the end of June. As a byproduct, a case can be made that the combination of 2015-16 recruiting classes ranks as one of the best one-two recruiting years combos that we’ve seen in the last 20 years in Austin.

In what has turned out to be a serendipitous turn of events, the rise of one program seems to be coinciding with another burning in flames.

It’s weird.

It’s ironic.

It’s happening.

No. 2 – The numbers game: Breaking down the scholarships ...

With so many late additions to the 2016 recruiting class occurring in the last few days, I figured a crash course on the numbers and the impact on the 2017 class of adding so many late additions to the 2016 class might be a good section for this week’s column.

Let’s start with the most important piece of story, which is the Longhorns currently sitting on 84 scholarships, while they wait on a decision from Patrick Hudson.

Here’s a look at what the numbers per classification looked like after this weekend’s activity:

Seniors (11): Tyrone Swoopes, Petey Warrick, Caleb Bluiett, Kent Perkins, Bryce Cottrell, Quincy Vasser, Paul Boyette, Tim Cole, Sheroid Evans, Dylan Haines and Kevin Vaccaro

Juniors (14) D’Onta Foreman, Roderick Bernard, Armanti Foreman, Lorenzo Joe, Dorian Leonard, Jake Oliver, Andrew Beck, Blake Whiteley, Tristan Nickelson, Brandon Hodges, Naashon Hughes, Poona Ford, Antwuan Davis and Jason Hall

Sophomores: (26) Jerrod Heard, Chris Warren, Kirk Johnson, John Burt, Garrett Gray, Ryan Newsome, Deandre McNeil, Connor Williams, Alex Anderson, Elijah Rodriguez, Patrick Vahe, Terrell Cuney, Charles Omenihu, Jake McMillon, Chris Nelson, Edwin Freeman, Breckyn Hager, Malik Jefferson, Anthony Wheeler, John Bonney, Kris Boyd, Holton Hill, Davante Davis, DeShon Elliott, P.J. Locke and Michael Dickson

Redshirt freshmen (6): Kai Locksley, Matthew Merrick, Tristian Houston, Garrett Thomas, Buck Major and Cam Townsend

True freshmen (27) Shane Buechele, Kyle Porter, Devin Duvernay, Donovan Duvernay, Collin Johnson, Reggie Hemphill, Davion Curtis, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Peyton Aucoin, J.P. Urquidez, Jean Delance, Topi Imade, Denzel Okafor, Zach Shackelford, Andrew Fitzgerald, Malcolm Roach, D’Andre Christmas-Giles, Chris Daniels, Jordan Elliott, Marcel Southall, Gerald Wilbon, Demarco Boyd, Erick Fowler, Jeffrey McCulloch, Eric Cuffee, Chris Brown and Brandon Jones.

What’s really interesting about the math involved in the 85/25-man scholarship rules created by the NCAA is that the Longhorns would have had their hands tied this summer from a numbers standpoint had a few guys not failed to qualify last summer. Charlie Strong was able to slide six of his 29 signings from the 2015 class into the 2014 scholarship numbers, but that still left a class of 23 before Gilbert Johnson, Du'Vonta Lampkin and Devonaire Clarington all failed to qualify, thus dropping the official 2015 class size to 20 from an accounting standpoint.

All four of the early enrollers from 2016 class that arrived early (Demarco Boyd, Shane Buechele, Collin Johnson, Zach Shackelford) can count from an accounting standpoint towards the 2015 numbers, which would leave 20 recruits (assuming all qualify) in the 2016 recruiting class before any of the recent Baylor additions. If attrition allowed for it, the Longhorns could sign two more members from the 2016 class if Strong desired to do so.

In the end, Lampkin’s departure worked out well for the Longhorns.

From a 2017 recruiting standpoint, the Longhorns have only 11 graduating seniors, which means you can take that number, add all of the attrition from now until next August and that’s the number the Longhorns can count on for the class.

If you want to be safe, the number in your head should probably be on the low end of the 17-20 range.

It’ll all come down to attrition. Speaking of attrition, it’s time to move on to the next section.

No. 3 – A 10-year breakdown of attrition in the Texas program ...

More than a year ago, I broke down the Texas program’s attrition numbers from 2003-15 and considering the importance of the discussion heading into when the team reports in August, I thought I would update the data for those that needed a refresher course on the matter.

(Note: The calendar for each season’s attrition runs from 8/15 through 8/14 of the following year, as any player that leaves the program following the 8/15 date doesn’t really allow the coaching staff a chance to use the departure as part of any 85-man scholarship count for that year. The 8/15 start date is an arbitrary number I selected because some transfers were announced at the beginning of fall camps throughout the years and the start dates for each camp were different from year to year. Thus, the 8/15 number gave me about a week’s worth of wiggle room for last-minute transfer announcements.)

(Note No. 2: I’ve included the confirmed attrition for the 2003 and 2004 seasons that I could find, but I’m not 100-percent sure that I was able to properly account for the full numbers)

2003 (8/15/02-8/14/03)


(7) Kendal Briles (transfer), Clint Haney (injury), Rufus Harris (transfer), O.J. McClintock (transfer), Edorian McCulloch (academics), Rashad Thomas (transfer) and Robert Timmons (transfer)

2004 (8/15/03-8/14/04)


(7) Erick Hardeman (academics), Anthony Johnson (injuries), Chase Pittman (transfer), Bryan Pickryl (injuries), Steve Richardson (transfer), Austin Sendlein (injuries) and Mike Williams (academics)

2005 (8/15/04-8/14/05)


(6) Dustin Miksch (injuries), Garnet Smith (transfer), Albert Hardy (injuries), Aurmon Satchell (injuries), Kyle Thornton (transfer) and Terrance Young (injuries)

2006 (8/15/05-8/14/06)


(7) Eric Foreman (transfer), Steve Hogan (injuries), Michael Houston (transfer), Marco Martin (injuries), Bobby Tatum (transfer), Ramonce Taylor (transfer) and Jerrell Wilkerson (transfer)

2007 (8/15/06-8/14/07)


(10) Chris Brown (transfer), Jeremy Campbell (transfer), Greg Dolan (transfer), Myron Hardy
(transfer), Andre Jones (dismissed), Robert Joseph (dismissed), Jevan Snead (transfer), George Walker (transfer), J’Marcus Webb (transfer) and Roy Watts (transfer)

2008 (8/15/07-8/14/08)


(3) Brian Ellis (transfer), James Henry (transfer) and G.J. Kinne (transfer)

2009 (8/15/08-8/14/09)


(7) Buck Burnette (transfer), Jarvis Humphrey (illness), Ishie Oduegwu (injuries), Josh Marshall (retired), Aundre McGaskey (transfer), Montre Webber (transfer) and Michael Wilcoxon (retired)

2010 (8/15/09-8/14/10)


(10) Dan Buckner (transfer), Russell Carter (transfer), Antwan Cobb (retired), Brandon Collins (off-field), Marcus Davis (transfer), Ian Harris (injuries), Sherrod Harris (retired), Derek Johnson (transfer), Phillip Payne (retired) and Ben Wells (transfer)

2011 (8/15/10-8/14/11)


(9) Tariq Allen (transfer), Brock Fitzhenry (transfer), Trey Graham (injuries), Tyrell Higgins (transfer), Tevin Mims (transfer), Tre Newton (injuries), Patrick Nkwopara (retired), Greg Timmons (transfer) and Malcolm Williams (retires)

2012 (8/15/11-8/14/12)

(15) Eryon Barnett (transfer), Taylor Bible (transfer), Nolan Brewster (injuries), De’Aires Cotton (medical), Garrett Gilbert (transfer), Calvin Howell (transfer), Dravannti Johnson (retired), Chris Jones (transfer), Dominique Jones (transfer), Paden Kelley (retired), Traylon Shead (transfer), Darius Terrell (transfer), A.J. White (transfer), Darius White (transfer) and Connor Wood (transfer)

2013 (8/15/12-8/14/13)


(4) Thomas Ashcraft (transfer), Connor Brewer (transfer), Garrett Greenlea (injuries) and Cayleb Jones (transfer)

2014 (8/15/13-8/14/14)


(13) Aaron Benson (transfer), Joe Bergeron (transfer), Josh Cochran (injuries), Chevoski Collins (dismissed), Deoundrei Davis (transfer), Bryant Jackson (medical), Montrell Meander (dismissed), Chet Moss (dismissed), Jalen Overstreet (dismissed), Kendall Sanders
(dismissed), Leroy Scott (dismissed), Kevin Shorter (injuries) and Kendall Thompson (injuries)

2015 (8/15/14-8/14/15)


(9) Donald Catalon (transfer), Kennedy Estelle (dismissed), Rami Hammad (transfer), Cameron Hampton (transfer), Camrhon Hughes (transfer), Erik Huhn (injuries), Darius James (transfer), MJ McFarland (transfer) and Curtis Riser (transfer)

2016 (8/15/15-8/14/16)


(8) Cecil Cherry (Transfer), Adrian Colbert (transfer), Bryson Echols (transfer), Alex Norman (left), Jake Raulerson (transfer), Derick Roberson (Transfer), Jermaine Roberts (transfer) and Dalton Santos (transfer)

Ok, so let’s breakdown the numbers.

a. From 2005-2016, Texas averaged 8.41 players worth of attrition per year.

b. From 2010-2014, Texas averaged 10.2 players worth of attrition per year.

c. In the three years Charlie Strong has been in the program, an average of 10.0 players worth of attrition has occurred.

d. Since 2007, Texas has reached double-figures in attrition in four of the 10 seasons and at least nine players worth of attrition in six of the last 10 years.

e. Only twice in the last 14 years has Texas had fewer than a half-dozen players worth of attrition.

If you take all of this information and want to project ahead, it’s probably pretty safe to assume a healthy dose of attrition because it is a constant piece of the scholarship puzzle.

If Texas has a low volume of attrition, you’re probably talking about a class size of around 17 in 2017.

If Texas has a normal volume of attrition, you’re probably talking about a class size of around 19 in 2017.

If Texas has a high volume of attrition, you’re probably talking about a class size of around 21 in 2017.

With 59 sophomores and freshmen on the roster heading into the 2016 season, you can probably set your watch to the idea that there will at least be a normal volume of attrition and the safe bet is that there will be a high volume of attrition as the game of survival of the fittest will likely lead to a number of departures, with the logjam at positions like receiver (14 are scheduled to be on the roster in 2017 without considering members of the 2017 class).

No. 4 – The ideal 2017 recruiting class ...

Obviously, a lot will depend on what happens with future attrition, but based on the departures from the senior class and projecting a normal year of departures from the program, a 19-man class should look a little something like this from a numbers standpoint (current commits listed):

QB (1): Sam Ehlinger (Austin Westlake)
RB (1):
WR: (2): Damion Miller (John Tyler)
TE (1): Major Tennison (Bullard)
OL (2): Xavier Newman (DeSoto)
DE (3): LaGaryonn Carson (Texarkana Liberty-Eylau)
DT (2):
LB (2):
DB (3): Kobe Boyce (Lake Dallas) and Montrell Estelle (Hooks)
K/P (1):

A few thoughts on the numbers projected for each position:

With six scholarship running backs on campus and none set to depart via graduation, it’s hard to justify taking more than one back unless we’re talking about two players to whom you can’t say no.

The addition of the Duvernay brothers to the wide receiver unit means the Longhorns have 10 sophomores and freshmen on the roster at the position entering camp. With two commitments already in the cupboard in the 2017 recruiting class, numbers simply are not needed right now. If a special guy wants to commit, you can justify adding a third, but at some point this position is going to have too many numbers.

If Patrick Hudson signs with the Longhorns, the program will have 14 freshmen and sophomores at the tackle, guard and center positions heading into camp. Just like receiver, this is a group that is likely to see some attrition.

Defensive end is the most important need in the 2017 class by a country mile.

No. 5 – About the vacant baseball job ...

While we wait for the search to take its final turn, I’m curious… would you guys be down for this option?



No. 6 – Scattershooting on the Longhorns ...

… If Patrick Hudson signs with Texas, he’s going to play as a true freshman and he might just give the Longhorns a little versatility with the possible starting lineup, possibly allowing Kent Perkins to play inside next to Zach Shackelford.

… In a perfect world J.P. Urquidez takes a redshirt this season, but in a perfect world your third tackle isn’t Elijah Rodriguez or Tristan Nickelson, at least not the current versions of them. The unsettled nature of the second-string line is such that you have to think any true freshman who can improve it even a smidge will be called into action. That’s for all of them.

… The news that Marcel Southall has officially qualified is pretty big because he’s been a guy I believe will play significantly, along with Chris Daniels and Jordan Elliott. If D’Andre Christmas-Giles is the guy everyone thinks he is, I expect his long-term impact will be higher than anyone listed, but in terms of a first-year immediate impact, those are the three I’d put my money on hitting the field first.

… Was wondering what happened to former Class of 2002 wide receiver Robert Timmons, which led me to finding him on Facebook and if his page is an indication, he’s developed into a women’s clothing designer, which is one of the most unexpected fascinating discoveries of all-time. We’ve got to do a Where Are They Now feature on Timmons soon.

… Speaking of the Class of 2002, a little birdie tells me there will be a 2005 national championship team reunion for the season-opener against Notre Dame. I’m hearing it’ll involve golf, eating/drinking and a couple nights in the Four Seasons for those that return. It’s expected to be one of the biggest reunions involving the members of that team in the last decade.

No. 7 – Buy or sell …

(As always, all of these questions were submitted by actual Orangebloods subscribers.)

BUY or SELL: No matter how much hope and optimism y'all pump out and we OBers have leading into the season, 8 wins is the max we can realistically expect this year?

(Buy) This team could win more than eight games this season if a number of things go right, but to expect more than that right now is a miscalculation of this team going into the season. Remember, this team has 25 upperclassmen in the entire program and not many of those are impact players.

BUY or SELL: Charlie Strong is our head coach going into the 2019 season?

(Buy) I’m on the fence with what happens for this team on the field this season, but I believe the decision-makers want him to succeed, so I’ll take the buy for now.

BUY or SELL: Shane has the best season for a QB since Colt this coming season?

(Sell) He certainly has a chance, but the 2012 version of David Ash might be a bar slightly outside of his reach.

BUY or SELL: There are team leaders on this squad that have taken a more active role in recruiting than any before?

(Sell) The 1999 and 2002 classes were notorious for the help they gave in recruiting.

BUY or SELL: At the end of the day (once we've seen who makes it to campus and who pans out), '15 and '16 classes will be as good a fit as any two year run under Mack?

(Sell) I’m not quite willing to go there just yet because there’s no Vince Young in the 2015-16 classes, but there’s no getting around the fact that there appears to be quite a bit of young NFL-caliber talent on campus from the last two classes.

BUY or SELL: Shane Buechele has at least 250 yards passing and 2 TDs vs Notre Dame, and Texas scores at least 27 points overall?

(Sell) 27 points might be asking for too much at the moment.

BUY or SELL: The number of wins this year matter at all to Perrin for his evaluation of Strong’s success?

(Buy) Sure it matters. Charlie probably won’t make it if this team goes 6-6.

No. 8a – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …

… Prayers, well-wishes and best possible thoughts to the family of NCAA coaching legend Pat Summitt, who is in a rough way in her battle against Alzheimer's disease.

… Hot damn, it seems rare in boxing that the action ever meets the hype, but it happened on Saturday night in the Keith Thurman 12-round decision over Shawn Porter. It feels like it's been forever that a fight lived up to expectations, so if these two want to fight each other every six months for the next 1 ½ years, I’m completely ok with it.

… For the record, I scored the fight a 114-114 draw. I probably gave Porter a couple of rounds that I thought he controlled throughout, only to see Thurman land the most significant punch of the round. There were probably 7-8 rounds in that fight that could have gone in
multiple directions.

… Madison Bumgarner is money in the bank, except when he pitches to former Longhorn Cameron Rupp.



… After looking like an all-Big 12 Final was headed our way in the College World Series, Big 12 teams lost their final five games of the tournament on the way to being shutout of the final. I can’t wait to see the TV ratings for an Arizona/Coastal Carolina best two of three series.

… Consider me a very happy 76ers fan after the team’s draft on Thursday night. In addition to landing three of draftexpress.com’s Top 20 overall prospects, new GM Bryan Colangelo didn’t make any rash decisions with their personnel, even if a few pieces still need to be moved. Call me an optimistic sunshine pumper, but I can start to see light at the end of the tunnel.

… Oklahoma City absolutely came out as a winner in the Victor Oladipo/Serge Ibaka trade. In my mind, Sam Presti sold Ibaka for $1.25 on the dollar.

… If I was Kevin Durant, I’d sign with Golden State and never turn back. If the Warriors win the title while he’s on the roster, he’ll get a ton of credit for it, especially if LeBron James and the Cavs are standing in the way. He’d basically be to Golden State what Clyde Drexler was for the Rockets in the mid-90s.

… lulz @ Danny Ainge.

No. 8b –Pensamientos de fútbol para derretir el cerebro ...

… You can officially include me in the Anti-Jurgen Klinsmann Fan Club. This semi-final bif in the Copa America is a perfect moment for a sendoff as far as I’m concerned, especially after his approach to both of the last two games in the tournament. My confidence in his abilities is at an all-time low, which is oddly ironic after a misleading finish in the Copa.

… It’s quite possible that Christian Pulisic is the best player on the USMNT and Klinsmann couldn’t find a way to get him on the field outside of sub-duty. Apparently, he’s good enough to start for one of the best teams in Europe and in one of the best leagues in the world, but he can’t crack a line-up mostly filled with MLS players. You can make a case that the player on the roster most ready to play against elite competition is the guy who sees the most of it on a daily basis. Yes, I’m pissed at Klinsmann over this.

… I really don’t need to see Michael Bradley in a starting lineup for the USMNT moving forward. Just a horrible tournament for one of Klinsmann’s favorites.

... Oh boy, Lionel Messi will never live down missing his penalty kick in the Copa America final. He's going to relive that nightmare a million times before his life is over.

... Nothing but props for Chile. Back to back Copa America titles speaks for itself. Those players are national icons after Sunday night.

… Who wants a piece of Germany right now? My goodness, they just dismantled a very good Slovakia team like they were out on a Sunday stroll.

… Is Kevin De Bruyne the most underrated player in the world? He’s at least the best ginger soccer player in the world.

… If Antoine Griezmann happened to be a single man, I’d have to think he’d be France’s most eligible bachelor after putting France on his back against Ireland.

… Portugal/Croatia looked like a potential game of the tournament coming in and ended up setting soccer back 20 years for anyone who decided to give the game a chance while the match was ongoing. It took more than 110 minutes before the game even showed a pulse.

… If you’re Poland and you’ve qualified for the quarterfinals without a single goal from Robert Lewandowski, you have to be feeling pretty good about the form of your team. That being said, it's a damn shame that Xherdan Shaqiri had to go home on Saturday after his heroic moment.

… Assist of the Weekend goes to Dallas’ Mauro Diaz.



No. 9 – Game of Thrones - Live blog stream of conscious thoughts...

The following are my stream of conscious thoughts on the season-finale from season-six of Game of Thrones.

********SPOILER ALERT ***********

********SPOILER ALERT ***********

********SPOILER ALERT ***********

a. I can't believe this is it for season six. Life will be just a little bit worse without any more GOT until 2017.

Predictions: Cersei kills herself, her son and a bunch of others with wildfire. Bran witnesses the birth of Lyanna's Stark's baby and it turns out Ned isn't Jon's father. I also believe there's a chance that Ned kills Lyanna. The WhiteWalkers destroy the wall with their little underground WMDs and the real war officially begins.

b. Ok, here we go.

c. The bells ringing to open the episode feel very ominous. Tommen is such a little boy.

d. Man, Loras needs a spa day.

e. Man, Loras is a broken shell of a man. He's willing to give up everything for a clean bed. Brutal. Cersei ain't going out quite like that.

f. Holy shit, Cersei has a gang of child assassin handling business for her. I wasn't prepared for that at all. Death by spider monkeys.

g. Holy shit, Cersei killed them all. The Sept. The Tyrells. People that looked down on her. Errrrybody. All while working on her fourth glass of wine in the morning. She channeled her inner Left-eye and burned it all up. Holy shit,

h. Oh man, that look on Tommen's face. Go back and freeze the screen on it. He lives in a world he doesn't understand.

i. I've paused the show and am just staring at the screen speechless. I'm out of words for Cersei. I'm over here just hoping I'm not on her shit list because she gives zero f***s right now.

j. Holy shit, Tommen jumped!!!!!

k. Walder Fray not killing Edmure Tully because it would give the family "a bad name" is one of the funniest lines in the history of the show. He just can't help himself at.

l. Jamie Lannister can take a lot of things, but Walder Frey calling them a pair of equal-footing Kingslayers is not one of them. Either Jamie does tonight or Walder Frey does, but one of them ain't making it to season seven.

m. Sam has a lot of reading to do.

n. Did we just witness an actual tender Stark family moment? I think so, but it's been so long since we've seen a tender scene with a smidge of happiness for two Starks at the same time.

o. lulz. Dany broke that dude's heart.

tumblr_inline_nf2oq6U4ik1shrb8p.gif


p. As the Hand to the Queen, does Tyrion get to ride a dragon on the weekends?

q. Awwwww hell, Arya just crossed a name off her list! This episode just won't stop and there's still 20 minutes left.

r. Like a teenage boy on a date at the movies, Littlefinger went for it with Sansa and was squarely put into the friend-zone. Bwaahahahaha. He had such high hopes and at the very end he realized how much he had just been played.

s. Verified: R + J = J.

t. I'm ready for Lady Mormont to have her own show. That girl is a straight gangsta and she is not to be trifled by fools.

u. Littlefinger is not only pissed that Jon Snow just climbed in front of him in the GOT power rankings, but he could barely contain his anger knowing that if he had played his cards differently, he could have had the North at this very moment.

v. The Sansa/Littlefinger storyline is heating up, not cooling down, whether Sansa knows it or not.

w. Jamie is going to kill Cersei in season seven and then he'll add Queenslayer to his Wikipedia resume.

x. After six seasons of taking two steps forward, one step back, Dany and her army is headed to Westeros, where Queen Cersei awaits her. It's on.

y. No white walkers? Consider me stunned that they didn't make an appearance,

z. Where the hell is The Hound?

********END OF SPOILER ALERT ***********

********END OF SPOILER ALERT ***********

********END OF SPOILER ALERT ***********


No. 10 - And finally…

FYI, I’ll be starting my vacation on Tuesday, which means that if you have any needs that require immediate attention, contact Suchomel or another member of the staff because I hope to actually take real time off and not just give the idea lip service.

Cherio, good sports!
 
Last edited:
I thought Cuney was atrested for shoplifting, but that is a far cry from assault on a female. I could be wrong about Cuney...
 
The list of names on the attrition list is the reason no one should get too worked up about where recruits sign.

Sure it's exciting but damn that list has some names on it I was convinced would be stars here.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bozans
While we all wait for whatever happens with Sillsbee impact offensive line prospect Patrick Hudson to actually happen, I think it’s probably a good idea to acknowledge the elephant in the corner of the room.

The entire situation that has unfolded in the last month with Baylor signees wanting out of their letters of intent and the almost inconceivable pot of gold that has fallen into Charlie Strong’s lap is weirdly ironic on about 100 different levels.

It’s not just that the Longhorns are benefitting from the fallout of a conference rival that sits 100 miles north up I-35 or the fact that the Longhorns weren’t really factors with the Duvernay brothers in the heat of last year’s recruiting or the fact that all of this is unfolding less than two months before August workouts begin.

Those three things alone have made for a weird situation. What makes it soaking wet with irony is the juxtaposition between the two programs in terms of the ideologies of the two programs away from the field.

Call it 5 Core Values vs. No Core Values.

While Art Briles fostered a program with absolutely zero regard to the safety and protection of women, Strong was panned a few years ago when he arrived at Texas for trying to foster a program that placed the safety and protection as a core value and principle. I’m not trying to play the moral superiority card between two men because that can be a dangerous game to play when discussing any two people (although if you want to say Strong is a better human being because he’s never been an enabler of sexual assault … fair enough), but I am absolutely pointing out the moral foundations between the two programs.

There’s no such thing as a college football program living up on a hill above all others, but while Baylor player after Baylor player has been involved in one sexual/domestic assault situation after another, as far as I can find not a single UT player has been arrested since July 24, 2014. That’s the day wide receivers Kendall Sanders and Montrel Meander were arrested and charged with felony sexual assault.

What stands out nearly two years later about that day was that while I was in the middle of writing a column on why Strong had to dismiss both players from the program right away, Strong dropped the hammer by kicking both players to the curb before I could even post my column about him needing to do just that.

Not only does no means no for Strong, but the zero tolerance attitude he preached was backed by swift action. Although some of the results are no doubt protected by sheer luck, the fact that we’re approaching two years without a Longhorns player arrest is worth acknowledgment, especially when Strong’s power play with the degenerates of the program was fodder for the national media from coast to coast.

Two years later, here we are and to add even more irony to the equation, none of these players who have left Baylor to join Strong’s program have done so because of moral codes. Despite a losing record on the field in two years, Strong has created momentum in recruiting that has opened up eyes across this state. None of what has happened this week happens if the Longhorns struggle down the stretch in the final days of the 2016 recruiting year. By closing the way that it did, Texas re-emerged as a very attractive option for players this month who didn’t come close to signing with the Longhorns four months ago.

It doesn’t always make perfect sense, but if Strong was at the craps table in Vegas right now, it would probably be a good idea for all of us to put our money down with his bets because things have been coming up roses for him since his hire of Sterlin Gilbert in December, which is super ironic when you consider Gilbert comes from the Art Briles coaching tree.

What’s happening right now doesn’t make perfect sense, but it’s happening and a recruiting class that finished No. 12 in the Rivals rankings in February is rising to as high as No. 4 at the end of June. As a byproduct, a case can be made that the combination of 2015-16 recruiting classes ranks as one of the best one-two recruiting years combos that we’ve seen in the last 20 years in Austin.

In what has turned out to be a serendipitous turn of events, the rise of one program seems to be coinciding with another burning in flames.

It’s weird.

It’s ironic.

It’s happening.

No. 2 – The numbers game: Breaking down the scholarships ...

With so many late additions to the 2016 recruiting class occurring in the last few days, I figured a crash course on the numbers and the impact on the 2017 class of adding so many late additions to the 2016 class might be a good section for this week’s column.

Let’s start with the most important piece of story, which is the Longhorns currently sitting on 84 scholarships, while they wait on a decision from Patrick Hudson.

Here’s a look at what the numbers per classification looked like after this weekend’s activity:

Seniors (11): Tyrone Swoopes, Petey Warrick, Caleb Bluiett, Kent Perkins, Bryce Cottrell, Quincy Vasser, Paul Boyette, Tim Cole, Sheroid Evans, Dylan Haines and Kevin Vaccaro

Juniors (14) D’Onta Foreman, Roderick Bernard, Armanti Foreman, Lorenzo Joe, Dorian Leonard, Jake Oliver, Andrew Beck, Blake Whiteley, Tristan Nickelson, Brandon Hodges, Naashon Hughes, Poona Ford, Antwuan Davis and Jason Hall

Sophomores: (26) Jerrod Heard, Chris Warren, Kirk Johnson, John Burt, Garrett Gray, Ryan Newsome, Deandre McNeil, Connor Williams, Alex Anderson, Elijah Rodriguez, Patrick Vahe, Terrell Cuney, Charles Omenihu, Jake McMillon, Chris Nelson, Edwin Freeman, Breckyn Hager, Malik Jefferson, Anthony Wheeler, John Bonney, Kris Boyd, Holton Hill, Davante Davis, DeShon Elliott, P.J. Locke and Michael Dickson

Redshirt freshmen (6): Kai Locksley, Matthew Merrick, Tristian Houston, Garrett Thomas, Buck Major and Cam Townsend

True freshmen (27) Shane Buechele, Kyle Porter, Devin Duvernay, Donovan Duvernay, Collin Johnson, Reggie Hemphill, Davion Curtis, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Peyton Aucoin, J.P. Urquidez, Jean Delance, Topi Imade, Denzel Okafor, Zach Shackelford, Andrew Fitzgerald, Malcolm Roach, D’Andre Christmas-Giles, Chris Daniels, Jordan Elliott, Marcel Southall, Gerald Wilbon, Demarco Boyd, Erick Fowler, Jeffrey McCulloch, Eric Cuffee, Chris Brown and Brandon Jones.

What’s really interesting about the math involved in the 85/25-man scholarship rules created by the NCAA is that the Longhorns would have had their hands tied this summer from a numbers standpoint had a few guys not failed to qualify last summer. Charlie Strong was able to slide six of his 29 signings from the 2015 class into the 2014 scholarship numbers, but that still left a class of 23 before Gilbert Johnson, Du'Vonta Lampkin and Devonaire Clarington all failed to qualify, thus dropping the official 2015 class size to 20 from an accounting standpoint.

All four of the early enrollers from 2016 class that arrived early (Demarco Boyd, Shane Buechele, Collin Johnson, Zach Shackelford) can count from an accounting standpoint towards the 2015 numbers, which would leave 20 recruits (assuming all qualify) in the 2016 recruiting class before any of the recent Baylor additions. If attrition allowed for it, the Longhorns could sign two more members from the 2016 class if Strong desired to do so.

In the end, Lampkin’s departure worked out well for the Longhorns.

From a 2017 recruiting standpoint, the Longhorns have only 11 graduating seniors, which means you can take that number, add all of the attrition from now until next August and that’s the number the Longhorns can count on for the class.

If you want to be safe, the number in your head should probably be on the low end of the 17-20 range.

It’ll all come down to attrition. Speaking of attrition, it’s time to move on to the next section.

No. 3 – A 10-year breakdown of attrition in the Texas program ...

More than a year ago, I broke down the Texas program’s attrition numbers from 2003-15 and considering the importance of the discussion heading into when the team reports in August, I thought I would update the data for those that needed a refresher course on the matter.

(Note: The calendar for each season’s attrition runs from 8/15 through 8/14 of the following year, as any player that leaves the program following the 8/15 date doesn’t really allow the coaching staff a chance to use the departure as part of any 85-man scholarship count for that year. The 8/15 start date is an arbitrary number I selected because some transfers were announced at the beginning of fall camps throughout the years and the start dates for each camp were different from year to year. Thus, the 8/15 number gave me about a week’s worth of wiggle room for last-minute transfer announcements.)

(Note No. 2: I’ve included the confirmed attrition for the 2003 and 2004 seasons that I could find, but I’m not 100-percent sure that I was able to properly account for the full numbers)

<B>2003 (8/15/02-8/14/03)</B>

(7) Kendal Briles (transfer), Clint Haney (injury), Rufus Harris (transfer), O.J. McClintock (transfer), Edorian McCulloch (academics), Rashad Thomas (transfer) and Robert Timmons (transfer)

<B>2004 (8/15/03-8/14/04)</B>

(7) Erick Hardeman (academics), Anthony Johnson (injuries), Chase Pittman (transfer), Bryan Pickryl (injuries), Steve Richardson (transfer), Austin Sendlein (injuries) and Mike Williams (academics)

<B>2005 (8/15/04-8/14/05)</B>

(6) Dustin Miksch (injuries), Garnet Smith (transfer), Albert Hardy (injuries), Aurmon Satchell (injuries), Kyle Thornton (transfer) and Terrance Young (injuries)

<B>2006 (8/15/05-8/14/06)</B>

(7) Eric Foreman (transfer), Steve Hogan (injuries), Michael Houston (transfer), Marco Martin (injuries), Bobby Tatum (transfer), Ramonce Taylor (transfer) and Jerrell Wilkerson (transfer)

<B>2007 (8/15/06-8/14/07)</B>

(10) Chris Brown (transfer), Jeremy Campbell (transfer), Greg Dolan (transfer), Myron Hardy
(transfer), Andre Jones (dismissed), Robert Joseph (dismissed), Jevan Snead (transfer), George Walker (transfer), J’Marcus Webb (transfer) and Roy Watts (transfer)

<B>2008 (8/15/07-8/14/08)</B>

(3) Brian Ellis (transfer), James Henry (transfer) and G.J. Kinne (transfer)

<B>2009 (8/15/08-8/14/09)</B>

(7) Buck Burnette (transfer), Jarvis Humphrey (illness), Ishie Oduegwu (injuries), Josh Marshall (retired), Aundre McGaskey (transfer), Montre Webber (transfer) and Michael Wilcoxon (retired)

<B>2010 (8/15/09-8/14/10)</B>

(10) Dan Buckner (transfer), Russell Carter (transfer), Antwan Cobb (retired), Brandon Collins (off-field), Marcus Davis (transfer), Ian Harris (injuries), Sherrod Harris (retired), Derek Johnson (transfer), Phillip Payne (retired) and Ben Wells (transfer)

<B>2011 (8/15/10-8/14/11)</B>

(9) Tariq Allen (transfer), Brock Fitzhenry (transfer), Trey Graham (injuries), Tyrell Higgins (transfer), Tevin Mims (transfer), Tre Newton (injuries), Patrick Nkwopara (retired), Greg Timmons (transfer) and Malcolm Williams (retires)

<B>2012 (8/15/11-8/14/12)</B>

(15) Eryon Barnett (transfer), Taylor Bible (transfer), Nolan Brewster (injuries), De’Aires Cotton (medical), Garrett Gilbert (transfer), Calvin Howell (transfer), Dravannti Johnson (retired), Chris Jones (transfer), Dominique Jones (transfer), Paden Kelley (retired), Traylon Shead (transfer), Darius Terrell (transfer), A.J. White (transfer), Darius White (transfer) and Connor Wood (transfer)

<B>2013 (8/15/12-8/14/13)</B>

(4) Thomas Ashcraft (transfer), Connor Brewer (transfer), Garrett Greenlea (injuries) and Cayleb Jones (transfer)

<B>2014 (8/15/13-8/14/14)</B>

(13) Aaron Benson (transfer), Joe Bergeron (transfer), Josh Cochran (injuries), Chevoski Collins (dismissed), Deoundrei Davis (transfer), Bryant Jackson (medical), Montrell Meander (dismissed), Chet Moss (dismissed), Jalen Overstreet (dismissed), Kendall Sanders
(dismissed), Leroy Scott (dismissed), Kevin Shorter (injuries) and Kendall Thompson (injuries)

<B>2015 (8/15/14-8/14/15)</B>

(9) Donald Catalon (transfer), Kennedy Estelle (dismissed), Rami Hammad (transfer), Cameron Hampton (transfer), Camrhon Hughes (transfer), Erik Huhn (injuries), Darius James (transfer), MJ McFarland (transfer) and Curtis Riser (transfer)

<B>2016 (8/15/15-8/14/16)</B>

(8) Cecil Cherry (Transfer), Adrian Colbert (transfer), Bryson Echols (transfer), Alex Norman (left), Jake Raulerson (transfer), Derick Roberson (Transfer), Jermaine Roberts (transfer) and Dalton Santos (transfer)

Ok, so let’s breakdown the numbers.

From 2005-2016, Texas averaged 8.41 players worth of attrition per year.

From 2010-2014, Texas averaged 10.2 players worth of attrition per year.

In the three years Charlie Strong has been in the program, an average of 10.0 players worth of attrition has occurred.

Since 2007, Texas has reached double-figures in attrition in four of the 10 seasons and at least nine players worth of attrition in six of the last 10 years.

Only twice in the last 14 years has Texas had fewer than a half-dozen players worth of attrition.

If you take all of this information and want to project ahead, it’s probably pretty safe to assume a healthy dose of attrition because it is a constant piece of the scholarship puzzle.

If Texas has a low volume of attrition, you’re probably talking about a class size of around 17 in 2017.

If Texas has a normal volume of attrition, you’re probably talking about a class size of around 19 in 2017.

If Texas has a high volume of attrition, you’re probably talking about a class size of around 21 in 2017.

With 59 sophomores and freshmen on the roster heading into the 2016 season, you can probably set your watch to the idea that there will at least be a normal volume of attrition and the safe bet is that there will be a high volume of attrition as the game of survival of the fittest will
likely lead to a number of departures, with the logjam at positions like receiver (14 are scheduled to be on the roster in 2017 without considering members of the 2017 class).

No. 4 – The ideal 2017 recruiting class ...

Obviously, a lot will depend on what happens with future attrition, but based on the departures from the senior class and projecting a normal year of departures from the program, a 19-man class should look a little something like this from a numbers standpoint (current commits listed):

QB (1): Sam Ehlinger (Austin Westlake)
RB (1):
WR: (2): Damion Miller (John Tyler) and Montrell Estelle (Hooks)
TE (1): Major Tennison (Bullard)
OL (2): Xavier Newman (DeSoto)
DE (3): LaGaryonn Carson (Texarkana Liberty-Eylau)
DT (2):
LB (2):
DB (3): Kobe Boyce (Lake Dallas)
K/P (1):

A few thoughts on the numbers projected for each position:

With six scholarship running backs on campus and none set to depart via graduation, it’s hard to justify taking more than one back unless we’re talking about two players to whom you can’t say no.

The addition of the Duvernay brothers to the wide receiver unit means the Longhorns have 10 sophomores and freshmen on the roster at the position entering camp. With two commitments already in the cupboard in the 2017 recruiting class, numbers simply are not needed right now. If a special guy wants to commit, you can justify adding a third, but at some point this position is going to have too many numbers.

If Patrick Hudson signs with the Longhorns, the program will have 14 freshmen and sophomores at the tackle, guard and center positions heading into camp. Just like receiver, this is a group that is likely to see some attrition.

Defensive end is the most important need in the 2017 class by a country mile.

No. 5 – About the vacant baseball job ...

While we wait for the search to take its final turn, I’m curious… would you guys be down for this option?



No. 6 – Scattershooting on the Longhorns ...

… If Patrick Hudson signs with Texas, he’s going to play as a true freshman and he might just give the Longhorns a little versatility with the possible starting lineup, possibly allowing Kent Perkins to play inside next to Zach Shackelford.

… In a perfect world J.P. Urquidez takes a redshirt this season, but in a perfect world your third tackle isn’t Elijah Rodriguez or Tristan Nickelson, at least not the current versions of them. The unsettled nature of the second-string line is such that you have to think any true freshman who can improve it even a smidge will be called into action. That’s for all of them.

… The news that Marcel Southall has officially qualified is pretty big because he’s been a guy I believe will play significantly, along with Chris Daniels and Jordan Elliott. If D’Andre Christmas-Giles is the guy everyone thinks he is, I expect his long-term impact will be higher than anyone listed, but in terms of a first-year immediate impact, those are the three I’d put my money on hitting the field first.

… Was wondering what happened to former Class of 2002 wide receiver Robert Timmons, which led me to finding him on Facebook and if his page is an indication, he’s developed into a women’s clothing designer, which is one of the most unexpected fascinating discoveries of all-time. We’ve got to do a Where Are They Now feature on Timmons soon.

… Speaking of the Class of 2002, a little birdie tells me there will be a 2005 national championship team reunion for the season-opener against Notre Dame. I’m hearing it’ll involve golf, eating/drinking and a couple nights in the Four Seasons for those that return. It’s expected to be one of the biggest reunions involving the members of that team in the last decade.

No. 7 – Buy or sell …

(As always, all of these questions were submitted by actual Orangebloods subscribers.)

BUY or SELL: No matter how much hope and optimism y'all pump out and we OBers have leading into the season, 8 wins is the max we can realistically expect this year?

(Buy) This team could win more than eight games this season if a number of things go right, but to expect more than that right now is a miscalculation of this team going into the season. Remember, this team has 25 upperclassmen in the entire program and not many of those are impact players.

BUY or SELL: Charlie Strong is our head coach going into the 2019 season?

(Buy) I’m on the fence with what happens for this team on the field this season, but I believe the decision-makers want him to succeed, so I’ll take the buy for now.

BUY or SELL: Shane has the best season for a QB since Colt this coming season?

(Sell) He certainly has a chance, but the 2012 version of David Ash might be a bar slightly outside of his reach.

BUY or SELL: There are team leaders on this squad that have taken a more active role in recruiting than any before?

(Sell) The 1999 and 2002 classes were notorious for the help they gave in recruiting.

BUY or SELL: At the end of the day (once we've seen who makes it to campus and who pans out), '15 and '16 classes will be as good a fit as any two year run under Mack?

(Sell) I’m not quite willing to go there just yet because there’s no Vince Young in the 2015-16 classes, but there’s no getting around the fact that there appears to be quite a bit of young NFL-caliber talent on campus from the last two classes.

BUY or SELL: Shane Buechele has at least 250 yards passing and 2 TDs vs Notre Dame, and Texas scores at least 27 points overall?

(Sell) 27 points might be asking for too much at the moment.

BUY or SELL: The number of wins this year matter at all to Perrin for his evaluation of Strong’s success?

(Buy) Sure it matters. Charlie probably won’t make it if this team goes 6-6.

No. 8a – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …

… Prayers, well-wishes and best possible thoughts to the family of NCAA coaching legend Pat Summitt, who is in a rough way in her battle against Alzheimer's disease.

… Hot damn, it seems rare in boxing that the action ever meets the hype, but it happened on Saturday night in the Keith Thurman 12-round decision over Shawn Porter. It feels like it's been forever that a fight lived up to expectations, so if these two want to fight each other every six months for the next 1 ½ years, I’m completely ok with it.

… For the record, I scored the fight a 114-114 draw. I probably gave Porter a couple of rounds that I thought he controlled throughout, only to see Thurman land the most significant punch of the round. There were probably 7-8 rounds in that fight that could have gone in
multiple directions.

… Madison Bumgarner is money in the bank, except when he pitches to former Longhorn Cameron Rupp.



… After looking like an all-Big 12 Final was headed our way in the College World Series, Big 12 teams lost their final five games of the tournament on the way to being shutout of the final. I can’t wait to see the TV ratings for an Arizona/Coastal Carolina best two of three series.

… Consider me a very happy 76ers fan after the team’s draft on Thursday night. In addition to landing three of draftexpress.com’s Top 20 overall prospects, new GM Bryan Colangelo didn’t make any rash decisions with their personnel, even if a few pieces still need to be moved. Call me an optimistic sunshine pumper, but I can start to see light at the end of the tunnel.

… Oklahoma City absolutely came out as a winner in the Victor Oladipo/Serge Ibaka trade. In my mind, Sam Presti sold Ibaka for $1.25 on the dollar.

… If I was Kevin Durant, I’d sign with Golden State and never turn back. If the Warriors win the title while he’s on the roster, he’ll get a ton of credit for it, especially if LeBron James and the Cavs are standing in the way. He’d basically be to Golden State what Clyde Drexler was for the Rockets in the mid-90s.

… lulz @ Danny Ainge.

No. 8b –Pensamientos de fútbol para derretir el cerebro ...

… You can officially include me in the Anti-Jurgen Klinsmann Fan Club. This semi-final bif in the Copa America is a perfect moment for a sendoff as far as I’m concerned, especially after his approach to both of the last two games in the tournament. My confidence in his abilities is at an all-time low, which is oddly ironic after a misleading finish in the Copa.

… It’s quite possible that Christian Pulisic is the best player on the USMNT and Klinsmann couldn’t find a way to get him on the field outside of sub-duty. Apparently, he’s good enough to start for one of the best teams in Europe and in one of the best leagues in the world, but he can’t crack a line-up mostly filled with MLS players. You can make a case that the player on the roster most ready to play against elite competition is the guy who sees the most of it on a daily basis. Yes, I’m pissed at Klinsmann over this.

… I really don’t need to see Michael Bradley in a starting lineup for the USMNT moving forward. Just a horrible tournament for one of Klinsmann’s favorites.

... Oh boy, Lionel Messi will never live down missing his penalty kick in the Copa America final. He's going to relive that nightmare a million times before his life is over.

... Nothing but props for Chile. Back to back Copa America titles speaks for itself. Those players are national icons after Sunday night.

… Who wants a piece of Germany right now? My goodness, they just dismantled a very good Slovakia team like they were out on a Sunday stroll.

… Is Kevin De Bruyne the most underrated player in the world? He’s at least the best ginger soccer player in the world.

… If Antoine Griezmann happened to be a single man, I’d have to think he’d be France’s most eligible bachelor after putting France on his back against Ireland.

… Portugal/Croatia looked like a potential game of the tournament coming in and ended up setting soccer back 20 years for anyone who decided to give the game a chance while the match was ongoing. It took more than 110 minutes before the game even showed a pulse.

… If you’re Poland and you’ve qualified for the quarterfinals without a single goal from Robert Lewandowski, you have to be feeling pretty good about the form of your team. That being said, it's a damn shame that Xherdan Shaqiri had to go home on Saturday after his heroic moment.

… Assist of the Weekend goes to Dallas’ Mauro Diaz.



No. 9 – Game of Thrones - Live blog stream of conscious thoughts...

I'll provide my thoughts on the season-finale just as soon as I can watch it. Check back around midnight.

No. 10 - And finally…

FYI, I’ll be starting my vacation on Tuesday, which means that if you have any needs that require immediate attention, contact Suchomel or another member of the staff because I hope to actually take real time off and not just give the idea lip service.

Cherio, good sports!

My initial reaction was to disagree with you regarding where the bar is set for Buechele to reach this season. Based on the type of offense Texas will be running I thought surely 2,700 yards and 19 TD's passing is easily attainable. But we are talking about a TRUE freshman here and an offense that will be equipped with and rely on two very talented RB's.

I would be happy with a 2012 David Ash performance this year out of Buechele.

My gut feeling is that he will exceed it though.
 
… Speaking of the Class of 2002, a little birdie tells me there will be a 2005 national championship team reunion for the season-opener against Notre Dame. I’m hearing it’ll involve golf, eating/drinking and a couple nights in the Four Seasons for those that return. It’s expected to be one of the biggest reunions involving the members of that team in the last decade.

You must order a round of Buffalo Soldiers at the 4 Seasons. Best bourbon cocktail in Austin.
 
While we all wait for whatever happens with Sillsbee impact offensive line prospect Patrick Hudson to actually happen, I think it’s probably a good idea to acknowledge the elephant in the corner of the room.

The entire situation that has unfolded in the last month with Baylor signees wanting out of their letters of intent and the almost inconceivable pot of gold that has fallen into Charlie Strong’s lap is weirdly ironic on about 100 different levels.

It’s not just that the Longhorns are benefitting from the fallout of a conference rival that sits 100 miles north up I-35 or the fact that the Longhorns weren’t really factors with the Duvernay brothers in the heat of last year’s recruiting or the fact that all of this is unfolding less than two months before August workouts begin.

Those three things alone have made for a weird situation. What makes it soaking wet with irony is the juxtaposition between the two programs in terms of the ideologies of the two programs away from the field.

Call it 5 Core Values vs. No Core Values.

While Art Briles fostered a program with absolutely zero regard to the safety and protection of women, Strong was panned a few years ago when he arrived at Texas for trying to foster a program that placed the safety and protection as a core value and principle. I’m not trying to play the moral superiority card between two men because that can be a dangerous game to play when discussing any two people (although if you want to say Strong is a better human being because he’s never been an enabler of sexual assault … fair enough), but I am absolutely pointing out the moral foundations between the two programs.

There’s no such thing as a college football program living up on a hill above all others, but while Baylor player after Baylor player has been involved in one sexual/domestic assault situation after another, as far as I can find not a single UT player has been arrested since July 24, 2014. That’s the day wide receivers Kendall Sanders and Montrel Meander were arrested and charged with felony sexual assault.

What stands out nearly two years later about that day was that while I was in the middle of writing a column on why Strong had to dismiss both players from the program right away, Strong dropped the hammer by kicking both players to the curb before I could even post my column about him needing to do just that.

Not only does no means no for Strong, but the zero tolerance attitude he preached was backed by swift action. Although some of the results are no doubt protected by sheer luck, the fact that we’re approaching two years without a Longhorns player arrest is worth acknowledgment, especially when Strong’s power play with the degenerates of the program was fodder for the national media from coast to coast.

Two years later, here we are and to add even more irony to the equation, none of these players who have left Baylor to join Strong’s program have done so because of moral codes. Despite a losing record on the field in two years, Strong has created momentum in recruiting that has opened up eyes across this state. None of what has happened this week happens if the Longhorns struggle down the stretch in the final days of the 2016 recruiting year. By closing the way that it did, Texas re-emerged as a very attractive option for players this month who didn’t come close to signing with the Longhorns four months ago.

It doesn’t always make perfect sense, but if Strong was at the craps table in Vegas right now, it would probably be a good idea for all of us to put our money down with his bets because things have been coming up roses for him since his hire of Sterlin Gilbert in December, which is super ironic when you consider Gilbert comes from the Art Briles coaching tree.

What’s happening right now doesn’t make perfect sense, but it’s happening and a recruiting class that finished No. 12 in the Rivals rankings in February is rising to as high as No. 4 at the end of June. As a byproduct, a case can be made that the combination of 2015-16 recruiting classes ranks as one of the best one-two recruiting years combos that we’ve seen in the last 20 years in Austin.

In what has turned out to be a serendipitous turn of events, the rise of one program seems to be coinciding with another burning in flames.

It’s weird.

It’s ironic.

It’s happening.

No. 2 – The numbers game: Breaking down the scholarships ...

With so many late additions to the 2016 recruiting class occurring in the last few days, I figured a crash course on the numbers and the impact on the 2017 class of adding so many late additions to the 2016 class might be a good section for this week’s column.

Let’s start with the most important piece of story, which is the Longhorns currently sitting on 84 scholarships, while they wait on a decision from Patrick Hudson.

Here’s a look at what the numbers per classification looked like after this weekend’s activity:

Seniors (11): Tyrone Swoopes, Petey Warrick, Caleb Bluiett, Kent Perkins, Bryce Cottrell, Quincy Vasser, Paul Boyette, Tim Cole, Sheroid Evans, Dylan Haines and Kevin Vaccaro

Juniors (14) D’Onta Foreman, Roderick Bernard, Armanti Foreman, Lorenzo Joe, Dorian Leonard, Jake Oliver, Andrew Beck, Blake Whiteley, Tristan Nickelson, Brandon Hodges, Naashon Hughes, Poona Ford, Antwuan Davis and Jason Hall

Sophomores: (26) Jerrod Heard, Chris Warren, Kirk Johnson, John Burt, Garrett Gray, Ryan Newsome, Deandre McNeil, Connor Williams, Alex Anderson, Elijah Rodriguez, Patrick Vahe, Terrell Cuney, Charles Omenihu, Jake McMillon, Chris Nelson, Edwin Freeman, Breckyn Hager, Malik Jefferson, Anthony Wheeler, John Bonney, Kris Boyd, Holton Hill, Davante Davis, DeShon Elliott, P.J. Locke and Michael Dickson

Redshirt freshmen (6): Kai Locksley, Matthew Merrick, Tristian Houston, Garrett Thomas, Buck Major and Cam Townsend

True freshmen (27) Shane Buechele, Kyle Porter, Devin Duvernay, Donovan Duvernay, Collin Johnson, Reggie Hemphill, Davion Curtis, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Peyton Aucoin, J.P. Urquidez, Jean Delance, Topi Imade, Denzel Okafor, Zach Shackelford, Andrew Fitzgerald, Malcolm Roach, D’Andre Christmas-Giles, Chris Daniels, Jordan Elliott, Marcel Southall, Gerald Wilbon, Demarco Boyd, Erick Fowler, Jeffrey McCulloch, Eric Cuffee, Chris Brown and Brandon Jones.

What’s really interesting about the math involved in the 85/25-man scholarship rules created by the NCAA is that the Longhorns would have had their hands tied this summer from a numbers standpoint had a few guys not failed to qualify last summer. Charlie Strong was able to slide six of his 29 signings from the 2015 class into the 2014 scholarship numbers, but that still left a class of 23 before Gilbert Johnson, Du'Vonta Lampkin and Devonaire Clarington all failed to qualify, thus dropping the official 2015 class size to 20 from an accounting standpoint.

All four of the early enrollers from 2016 class that arrived early (Demarco Boyd, Shane Buechele, Collin Johnson, Zach Shackelford) can count from an accounting standpoint towards the 2015 numbers, which would leave 20 recruits (assuming all qualify) in the 2016 recruiting class before any of the recent Baylor additions. If attrition allowed for it, the Longhorns could sign two more members from the 2016 class if Strong desired to do so.

In the end, Lampkin’s departure worked out well for the Longhorns.

From a 2017 recruiting standpoint, the Longhorns have only 11 graduating seniors, which means you can take that number, add all of the attrition from now until next August and that’s the number the Longhorns can count on for the class.

If you want to be safe, the number in your head should probably be on the low end of the 17-20 range.

It’ll all come down to attrition. Speaking of attrition, it’s time to move on to the next section.

No. 3 – A 10-year breakdown of attrition in the Texas program ...

More than a year ago, I broke down the Texas program’s attrition numbers from 2003-15 and considering the importance of the discussion heading into when the team reports in August, I thought I would update the data for those that needed a refresher course on the matter.

(Note: The calendar for each season’s attrition runs from 8/15 through 8/14 of the following year, as any player that leaves the program following the 8/15 date doesn’t really allow the coaching staff a chance to use the departure as part of any 85-man scholarship count for that year. The 8/15 start date is an arbitrary number I selected because some transfers were announced at the beginning of fall camps throughout the years and the start dates for each camp were different from year to year. Thus, the 8/15 number gave me about a week’s worth of wiggle room for last-minute transfer announcements.)

(Note No. 2: I’ve included the confirmed attrition for the 2003 and 2004 seasons that I could find, but I’m not 100-percent sure that I was able to properly account for the full numbers)

<B>2003 (8/15/02-8/14/03)</B>

(7) Kendal Briles (transfer), Clint Haney (injury), Rufus Harris (transfer), O.J. McClintock (transfer), Edorian McCulloch (academics), Rashad Thomas (transfer) and Robert Timmons (transfer)

<B>2004 (8/15/03-8/14/04)</B>

(7) Erick Hardeman (academics), Anthony Johnson (injuries), Chase Pittman (transfer), Bryan Pickryl (injuries), Steve Richardson (transfer), Austin Sendlein (injuries) and Mike Williams (academics)

<B>2005 (8/15/04-8/14/05)</B>

(6) Dustin Miksch (injuries), Garnet Smith (transfer), Albert Hardy (injuries), Aurmon Satchell (injuries), Kyle Thornton (transfer) and Terrance Young (injuries)

<B>2006 (8/15/05-8/14/06)</B>

(7) Eric Foreman (transfer), Steve Hogan (injuries), Michael Houston (transfer), Marco Martin (injuries), Bobby Tatum (transfer), Ramonce Taylor (transfer) and Jerrell Wilkerson (transfer)

<B>2007 (8/15/06-8/14/07)</B>

(10) Chris Brown (transfer), Jeremy Campbell (transfer), Greg Dolan (transfer), Myron Hardy
(transfer), Andre Jones (dismissed), Robert Joseph (dismissed), Jevan Snead (transfer), George Walker (transfer), J’Marcus Webb (transfer) and Roy Watts (transfer)

<B>2008 (8/15/07-8/14/08)</B>

(3) Brian Ellis (transfer), James Henry (transfer) and G.J. Kinne (transfer)

<B>2009 (8/15/08-8/14/09)</B>

(7) Buck Burnette (transfer), Jarvis Humphrey (illness), Ishie Oduegwu (injuries), Josh Marshall (retired), Aundre McGaskey (transfer), Montre Webber (transfer) and Michael Wilcoxon (retired)

<B>2010 (8/15/09-8/14/10)</B>

(10) Dan Buckner (transfer), Russell Carter (transfer), Antwan Cobb (retired), Brandon Collins (off-field), Marcus Davis (transfer), Ian Harris (injuries), Sherrod Harris (retired), Derek Johnson (transfer), Phillip Payne (retired) and Ben Wells (transfer)

<B>2011 (8/15/10-8/14/11)</B>

(9) Tariq Allen (transfer), Brock Fitzhenry (transfer), Trey Graham (injuries), Tyrell Higgins (transfer), Tevin Mims (transfer), Tre Newton (injuries), Patrick Nkwopara (retired), Greg Timmons (transfer) and Malcolm Williams (retires)

<B>2012 (8/15/11-8/14/12)</B>

(15) Eryon Barnett (transfer), Taylor Bible (transfer), Nolan Brewster (injuries), De’Aires Cotton (medical), Garrett Gilbert (transfer), Calvin Howell (transfer), Dravannti Johnson (retired), Chris Jones (transfer), Dominique Jones (transfer), Paden Kelley (retired), Traylon Shead (transfer), Darius Terrell (transfer), A.J. White (transfer), Darius White (transfer) and Connor Wood (transfer)

<B>2013 (8/15/12-8/14/13)</B>

(4) Thomas Ashcraft (transfer), Connor Brewer (transfer), Garrett Greenlea (injuries) and Cayleb Jones (transfer)

<B>2014 (8/15/13-8/14/14)</B>

(13) Aaron Benson (transfer), Joe Bergeron (transfer), Josh Cochran (injuries), Chevoski Collins (dismissed), Deoundrei Davis (transfer), Bryant Jackson (medical), Montrell Meander (dismissed), Chet Moss (dismissed), Jalen Overstreet (dismissed), Kendall Sanders
(dismissed), Leroy Scott (dismissed), Kevin Shorter (injuries) and Kendall Thompson (injuries)

<B>2015 (8/15/14-8/14/15)</B>

(9) Donald Catalon (transfer), Kennedy Estelle (dismissed), Rami Hammad (transfer), Cameron Hampton (transfer), Camrhon Hughes (transfer), Erik Huhn (injuries), Darius James (transfer), MJ McFarland (transfer) and Curtis Riser (transfer)

<B>2016 (8/15/15-8/14/16)</B>

(8) Cecil Cherry (Transfer), Adrian Colbert (transfer), Bryson Echols (transfer), Alex Norman (left), Jake Raulerson (transfer), Derick Roberson (Transfer), Jermaine Roberts (transfer) and Dalton Santos (transfer)

Ok, so let’s breakdown the numbers.

From 2005-2016, Texas averaged 8.41 players worth of attrition per year.

From 2010-2014, Texas averaged 10.2 players worth of attrition per year.

In the three years Charlie Strong has been in the program, an average of 10.0 players worth of attrition has occurred.

Since 2007, Texas has reached double-figures in attrition in four of the 10 seasons and at least nine players worth of attrition in six of the last 10 years.

Only twice in the last 14 years has Texas had fewer than a half-dozen players worth of attrition.

If you take all of this information and want to project ahead, it’s probably pretty safe to assume a healthy dose of attrition because it is a constant piece of the scholarship puzzle.

If Texas has a low volume of attrition, you’re probably talking about a class size of around 17 in 2017.

If Texas has a normal volume of attrition, you’re probably talking about a class size of around 19 in 2017.

If Texas has a high volume of attrition, you’re probably talking about a class size of around 21 in 2017.

With 59 sophomores and freshmen on the roster heading into the 2016 season, you can probably set your watch to the idea that there will at least be a normal volume of attrition and the safe bet is that there will be a high volume of attrition as the game of survival of the fittest will
likely lead to a number of departures, with the logjam at positions like receiver (14 are scheduled to be on the roster in 2017 without considering members of the 2017 class).

No. 4 – The ideal 2017 recruiting class ...

Obviously, a lot will depend on what happens with future attrition, but based on the departures from the senior class and projecting a normal year of departures from the program, a 19-man class should look a little something like this from a numbers standpoint (current commits listed):

QB (1): Sam Ehlinger (Austin Westlake)
RB (1):
WR: (2): Damion Miller (John Tyler) and Montrell Estelle (Hooks)
TE (1): Major Tennison (Bullard)
OL (2): Xavier Newman (DeSoto)
DE (3): LaGaryonn Carson (Texarkana Liberty-Eylau)
DT (2):
LB (2):
DB (3): Kobe Boyce (Lake Dallas)
K/P (1):

A few thoughts on the numbers projected for each position:

With six scholarship running backs on campus and none set to depart via graduation, it’s hard to justify taking more than one back unless we’re talking about two players to whom you can’t say no.

The addition of the Duvernay brothers to the wide receiver unit means the Longhorns have 10 sophomores and freshmen on the roster at the position entering camp. With two commitments already in the cupboard in the 2017 recruiting class, numbers simply are not needed right now. If a special guy wants to commit, you can justify adding a third, but at some point this position is going to have too many numbers.

If Patrick Hudson signs with the Longhorns, the program will have 14 freshmen and sophomores at the tackle, guard and center positions heading into camp. Just like receiver, this is a group that is likely to see some attrition.

Defensive end is the most important need in the 2017 class by a country mile.

No. 5 – About the vacant baseball job ...

While we wait for the search to take its final turn, I’m curious… would you guys be down for this option?



No. 6 – Scattershooting on the Longhorns ...

… If Patrick Hudson signs with Texas, he’s going to play as a true freshman and he might just give the Longhorns a little versatility with the possible starting lineup, possibly allowing Kent Perkins to play inside next to Zach Shackelford.

… In a perfect world J.P. Urquidez takes a redshirt this season, but in a perfect world your third tackle isn’t Elijah Rodriguez or Tristan Nickelson, at least not the current versions of them. The unsettled nature of the second-string line is such that you have to think any true freshman who can improve it even a smidge will be called into action. That’s for all of them.

… The news that Marcel Southall has officially qualified is pretty big because he’s been a guy I believe will play significantly, along with Chris Daniels and Jordan Elliott. If D’Andre Christmas-Giles is the guy everyone thinks he is, I expect his long-term impact will be higher than anyone listed, but in terms of a first-year immediate impact, those are the three I’d put my money on hitting the field first.

… Was wondering what happened to former Class of 2002 wide receiver Robert Timmons, which led me to finding him on Facebook and if his page is an indication, he’s developed into a women’s clothing designer, which is one of the most unexpected fascinating discoveries of all-time. We’ve got to do a Where Are They Now feature on Timmons soon.

… Speaking of the Class of 2002, a little birdie tells me there will be a 2005 national championship team reunion for the season-opener against Notre Dame. I’m hearing it’ll involve golf, eating/drinking and a couple nights in the Four Seasons for those that return. It’s expected to be one of the biggest reunions involving the members of that team in the last decade.

No. 7 – Buy or sell …

(As always, all of these questions were submitted by actual Orangebloods subscribers.)

BUY or SELL: No matter how much hope and optimism y'all pump out and we OBers have leading into the season, 8 wins is the max we can realistically expect this year?

(Buy) This team could win more than eight games this season if a number of things go right, but to expect more than that right now is a miscalculation of this team going into the season. Remember, this team has 25 upperclassmen in the entire program and not many of those are impact players.

BUY or SELL: Charlie Strong is our head coach going into the 2019 season?

(Buy) I’m on the fence with what happens for this team on the field this season, but I believe the decision-makers want him to succeed, so I’ll take the buy for now.

BUY or SELL: Shane has the best season for a QB since Colt this coming season?

(Sell) He certainly has a chance, but the 2012 version of David Ash might be a bar slightly outside of his reach.

BUY or SELL: There are team leaders on this squad that have taken a more active role in recruiting than any before?

(Sell) The 1999 and 2002 classes were notorious for the help they gave in recruiting.

BUY or SELL: At the end of the day (once we've seen who makes it to campus and who pans out), '15 and '16 classes will be as good a fit as any two year run under Mack?

(Sell) I’m not quite willing to go there just yet because there’s no Vince Young in the 2015-16 classes, but there’s no getting around the fact that there appears to be quite a bit of young NFL-caliber talent on campus from the last two classes.

BUY or SELL: Shane Buechele has at least 250 yards passing and 2 TDs vs Notre Dame, and Texas scores at least 27 points overall?

(Sell) 27 points might be asking for too much at the moment.

BUY or SELL: The number of wins this year matter at all to Perrin for his evaluation of Strong’s success?

(Buy) Sure it matters. Charlie probably won’t make it if this team goes 6-6.

No. 8a – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …

… Prayers, well-wishes and best possible thoughts to the family of NCAA coaching legend Pat Summitt, who is in a rough way in her battle against Alzheimer's disease.

… Hot damn, it seems rare in boxing that the action ever meets the hype, but it happened on Saturday night in the Keith Thurman 12-round decision over Shawn Porter. It feels like it's been forever that a fight lived up to expectations, so if these two want to fight each other every six months for the next 1 ½ years, I’m completely ok with it.

… For the record, I scored the fight a 114-114 draw. I probably gave Porter a couple of rounds that I thought he controlled throughout, only to see Thurman land the most significant punch of the round. There were probably 7-8 rounds in that fight that could have gone in
multiple directions.

… Madison Bumgarner is money in the bank, except when he pitches to former Longhorn Cameron Rupp.



… After looking like an all-Big 12 Final was headed our way in the College World Series, Big 12 teams lost their final five games of the tournament on the way to being shutout of the final. I can’t wait to see the TV ratings for an Arizona/Coastal Carolina best two of three series.

… Consider me a very happy 76ers fan after the team’s draft on Thursday night. In addition to landing three of draftexpress.com’s Top 20 overall prospects, new GM Bryan Colangelo didn’t make any rash decisions with their personnel, even if a few pieces still need to be moved. Call me an optimistic sunshine pumper, but I can start to see light at the end of the tunnel.

… Oklahoma City absolutely came out as a winner in the Victor Oladipo/Serge Ibaka trade. In my mind, Sam Presti sold Ibaka for $1.25 on the dollar.

… If I was Kevin Durant, I’d sign with Golden State and never turn back. If the Warriors win the title while he’s on the roster, he’ll get a ton of credit for it, especially if LeBron James and the Cavs are standing in the way. He’d basically be to Golden State what Clyde Drexler was for the Rockets in the mid-90s.

… lulz @ Danny Ainge.

No. 8b –Pensamientos de fútbol para derretir el cerebro ...

… You can officially include me in the Anti-Jurgen Klinsmann Fan Club. This semi-final bif in the Copa America is a perfect moment for a sendoff as far as I’m concerned, especially after his approach to both of the last two games in the tournament. My confidence in his abilities is at an all-time low, which is oddly ironic after a misleading finish in the Copa.

… It’s quite possible that Christian Pulisic is the best player on the USMNT and Klinsmann couldn’t find a way to get him on the field outside of sub-duty. Apparently, he’s good enough to start for one of the best teams in Europe and in one of the best leagues in the world, but he can’t crack a line-up mostly filled with MLS players. You can make a case that the player on the roster most ready to play against elite competition is the guy who sees the most of it on a daily basis. Yes, I’m pissed at Klinsmann over this.

… I really don’t need to see Michael Bradley in a starting lineup for the USMNT moving forward. Just a horrible tournament for one of Klinsmann’s favorites.

... Oh boy, Lionel Messi will never live down missing his penalty kick in the Copa America final. He's going to relive that nightmare a million times before his life is over.

... Nothing but props for Chile. Back to back Copa America titles speaks for itself. Those players are national icons after Sunday night.

… Who wants a piece of Germany right now? My goodness, they just dismantled a very good Slovakia team like they were out on a Sunday stroll.

… Is Kevin De Bruyne the most underrated player in the world? He’s at least the best ginger soccer player in the world.

… If Antoine Griezmann happened to be a single man, I’d have to think he’d be France’s most eligible bachelor after putting France on his back against Ireland.

… Portugal/Croatia looked like a potential game of the tournament coming in and ended up setting soccer back 20 years for anyone who decided to give the game a chance while the match was ongoing. It took more than 110 minutes before the game even showed a pulse.

… If you’re Poland and you’ve qualified for the quarterfinals without a single goal from Robert Lewandowski, you have to be feeling pretty good about the form of your team. That being said, it's a damn shame that Xherdan Shaqiri had to go home on Saturday after his heroic moment.

… Assist of the Weekend goes to Dallas’ Mauro Diaz.



No. 9 – Game of Thrones - Live blog stream of conscious thoughts...

I'll provide my thoughts on the season-finale just as soon as I can watch it. Check back around midnight.

No. 10 - And finally…

FYI, I’ll be starting my vacation on Tuesday, which means that if you have any needs that require immediate attention, contact Suchomel or another member of the staff because I hope to actually take real time off and not just give the idea lip service.

Cherio, good sports!
Did I miss David Ash in your attrition numbers?
 
Say what you will about Klinsmann (and I agree), but the US team would've been run off the field in a half by Chile - those guys give more blood on a soccer field than any I've ever seen.
 
  • Like
Reactions: LnghrnObsrvtry
1. I buy the best QB since Colt question on Shane. Tough to make that call before his first game, but I see a leader, a guy who makes decisions, and one who has moxie. Ash doesn't give Vacarro a GFY look after that hit.

2. I'd also buy the 27pts on the ND question.

3. Speaking of attrition, I'd look at Strong's HC attrition at Louisville and his DC attrition at UF for a prediction of what will happen at UT. He now has 3 years of his own players and I have a feeling he recruits more right than wrong, which means attrition might actually decelerate vs. keep a higher than average pace.

4. The two most important people on this team next year are the OC and the QB. The team will go however far they take them. The season is out of Strong's hands at this point. It's the Offense's ability to score that will keep the team competitive and competing (read Defense) throughout each game.
 
Pulisic looked very good for the short time he was on the field. It was obvious even to this casual observer.
 
Wow man. While I differ a bit on some of the buy/sells (I think Buechele becomes an immediate record breaker), that was an amazing piece all the way around. Excellent perspective as well. Enjoy your vacation.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bozans
Coupled with your quote that the team doesn't have enough impact upperclassmen to go better than 8-5, Strong doesn;t have much margin for error. He can't afford to blow a game with coaching decisions.

Thats the million dollar question, isn't it?
 
I got the gist of it but it made it confusing seeing Estelle listed as a WR due to the fact that he wanted to play Safety and we offered him that opportunity. I get it won't change the numbers or anything but figured it was noteworthy since he said he was coming on for DBU.
 
No. 9 – Game of Thrones - Live blog stream of conscious thoughts...

I'll provide my thoughts on the season-finale just as soon as I can watch it. Check back around midnight.

It is past midnight

tumblr_inline_nrfwl3WfSK1tw0mlp_500_zpsulh9envr.gif
 
There’s no such thing as a college football program living up on a hill above the rest, but there is such a thing as a college football program dwelling in the sewer below the rest. The sooner we're quit of those s***birds for good and all, the better.
 
A no-name coach would win 7 games with this schedule and this team.

Strong winning 8 games does nothing for me. And it shouldn't do anything for you.

If he is the coach we all want him to be, 9 wins minimum is the answer.

The Notre Dame game will tell us everything we need to know.
 
  • Like
Reactions: dustin9482
Yeah, I don't think women's clothing designer would have been in my first 5,000 guesses on what became of Robert Timmons.
 
  • Like
Reactions: marinehorn
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT