The Arch Manning era is upon us.
Fellas, buckle the hell up.
I know most probably believe they have a grasp of what the next 24 months of Texas football are going to look like as the Longhorns transition from the Quinn Ewers era at quarterback to Manning, but I'm not sure anyone of us truly can know what to expect. It's just a working theory right now that none of us have lived.
Well, I suppose many of us who lived the Chris Simms era probably have a good idea of what it can look like, but a few things need to be said about this back-in-the-day comparison.
a. There wasn't any true social media when Simms was at Texas and the Internet was still in its infancy.
b. It was so long ago that no Texas fan under the age of 30 could really have a vague idea of that experience.
You might as well be talking about sending people to the moon for a large portion of the living fan base, so I think it's completely fair to acknowledge that whatever happens next isn't truly a lived experience for any of us over the age of 30, either.
This is an exciting brave new frontier for all of Orangebloods.
The most important piece of this discussion centers on what I expect to happen on the field. Call me crazy, but my expectation for Manning is that he will be an upgrade from Ewers. If it's ok to say the quiet part out loud now that the season is over, I believe that Manning would have been an upgrade of Ewers this year.
That's not to say that Ewers was horrible this season. Far from it. You don't lead a team to the brink of a national title at quarterback by being a scrub. Yet, Ewers was inconsistent from October through the end of the season and that inconsistency played a huge role in the Texas offense failing to hit 20 points in games against Georgia (2X), Ohio State, Arizona State and Texas A&M - with four of those representing four of the last five games Ewers played in a Texas uniform. We can debate what word properly described his level of play, but Ewers' season efficiency was nearly six points lower than Casey Thompson's (with a mangled hand) 2021 season.
In fact, this stopped me in my tracks on Sunday morning, but Thompson (152.4) actually finished with a higher career pass efficiency rating than Ewers (148.0), which tells us that the stat itself can only tell so much about a player, while also showcasing that Manning doesn't have to be his uncle Peyton in his prime to give the Longhorns better quarterback play in 2025.
Better quarterback play is the tide that will have a chance to lift all boats on the Texas offense. If Ewers had been a 160-rating type player throughout the season, Texas almost certainly wins the SEC and very probably beats Ohio State last week. Forget about being elite, Manning simply drifting into the territory of consistently being very good will give Texas a chance to win a national title.
It's that simple. If you tell me right now that Manning posts a 165-season rating in 2025, I don't need to know anything else about the 2025 Longhorns. They WILL be the best team in the SEC and they WILL be back in the national semifinals with a chance to right what went wrong against the Buckeyes.
Speaking of the Buckeyes ... that game in Columbus in less than nine months will speak to the reality that the Longhorns are going to live in while Manning is the quarterback. Win or lose, as long as Manning is the starter, the Longhorns will receive the most amount of national exposure that the program has ever received.
We're talking about a guy who would be featured on First Take after playing in a spring game. Just imagine how intense the spotlight will be when the Longhorns travel to Columbus to take on what might be the defending national champions to kick off the season ...
The Manning Experience is going to be its own cottage industry across the country.
It's why I find it laughable when people suggest that Manning will experience a landscape that will prove to be kinder than what Ewers experienced this season. Excuse me? If Ewers throws two picks in a game, it's a deal on Orangebloods. Just know that the moment Manning has a two-interception game, it's going to be a deal e-v-e-r-y-w-h-e-r-e.
For better or worse (and mostly better), this is the deal that is made when Arch Manning agreed to play football for your school. The spotlight never turns off. The conversation never stops. The analysis upon analysis always continues in hyperdrive.
Yet, if he's playing well ... if he's playing really well ... it's an incredible showcase for Texas football.
All I know is that I'm excited as hell to see what happens next.
The Manning Era is beginning. Just 223 days to go until August 30.
No. 2 - Steve Sarkisian's 2025 gamble ...
It's a hell of a thing that the Manning family has given every indication that no matter how long it takes for him to make 25+ starts at the collegiate level, he's not headed to the NFL until it happens.
This reality allowed Sarkisian to play Ewers this season without ever having to ask himself if he was losing a season of Manning starting at quarterback for him in the program as a byproduct of the decision. It can't be stressed enough that if Sarkisian really believed that there was a chance that he could enter the 2026 season without Manning, he would have been pushed into a losing proposition.
Either lose Ewers or Manning.
Instead, he gets his cake and gets to eat it, too.
By Manning having a historic level of patience, it means that Texas will get him as the starter in 2025 with multiple starts, nearly 100 pass attempts in games and appearances in the most important games of a national semifinal season under his belt before becoming the full-time starter. It's so obvious that being able to get that experience injected into his development at no cost to how long he'll hang around in Austin is an overwhelming unintended positive consequence in Ewers not playing well enough in 2023 that he decided to come back in 2024, but ...
It's an overwhelming positive consequence. Overwhelming.
Ninety-nine times out of 100 ... this isn't what Sarkisian would have received as a reality of asking the No. 1 overall national prospect to wait until his third season to get on the field as a starter, but Sarkisian isn't rolling snake-eyes much these days.
Now it's time to take advantage of the good fortune.
No. 3 - Ranking the SEC quarterbacks in 2025 ...
It seems to be all the rage to rank the quarterback position going into the 2025 season, so I thought I might as well go on the record with my thoughts as well.
You should know I'm quite bullish on a certain focal point of this column ...
1. Arch Manning (Texas)
There's probably only one program in the SEC that wouldn't trade their guy and a kidney/lung for the chance to have Manning be its starter.
2. D.J. Lagway (Florida)
This kid has a chance to be a superstar. There might not be a better quarterback battle in the country next year than when Manning and Lagway do battle in Gainesville.
(Significant separation)
3. LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina)
This is a guy that Texas fans should be happy they won't have to deal with in 2025, given the difficulty of already having to play Ohio State, Georgia and Florida on the road.
4. Nico Iamaleava (Tennessee)
He's got a little Ewers in him as a player. You can see the tools, you can see him growing up and it's happening within the framework of a program that is trying to take massive steps forward. I think he makes a jump up in his second full season as a starter.
5. Garrett Nussmeier (LSU)
Some people would rank him much higher than this, but he was mostly poor last season against the best teams on his schedule. He turns 23 in a few weeks and sometimes you just are what you are.
6. Diego Pavia (Vanderbilt)
I still don't quite know how good I think Pavia is. I mean ... he's good ... but is he better than just good?
7. John Mateer (Oklahoma)
I could understand flipping Pavia and Mateer because this feels like the floor for Mateer when you look at the rest of the conference.
(Significant separation)
8. Keelon Russell (Alabama)
He might not be the starter in week one, but he's this year's DJ Lagway within the SEC ... it's only a matter of time.
9. Marcel Reed (Texas A&M)
It's no sure thing that he is even the starter with incoming transfer Jacob Zeno nipping on his heels, but I kind of like Reed. He kind of reminds me of a young Sellers.
10. Austin Simmons (Ole Misss)
Playing inside of the Ole Miss offense might mean that his stats will be much better than 10th on the list, but he's no lock to be a success by any stretch of the imagination. This is a program that needed to strike gold in the Portal and didn't.
11. Taylen Green (Arkansas)
He's very talented and yet not consistently very good. Can he turn the corner in 2025? I have some doubts.
12. Jackson Arnold (Auburn)
I have a sneaking suspicion that this guy salvages his career and OU fans will rue the day that they didn't hang in a little longer with a very, very young player.
13. Gunner Stockton (Georgia)
How in the world is UGA in such a poor quarterbacking position? They really need to lure someone into the Portal.
14. Blake Shapen (Mississippi State)
This team is going to struggle to win three games in 2025.
15. Zach Calzada (Kentucky)
I guess ...
16. Beau Pribula (Missouri)
I'll be honest when I tell you that I couldn't pick this dude out of a line-up ...
No. 4 - Four thoughts on Sark's extension ...
1. There was some tension behind the scenes in the athletic department about the NFL interest in Sarkisian this week, all while the Longhorns were trying to lock in their roster from putting a foot into the Portal in the name of fishing for a cashed lottery ticket in the way of NIL money. I can't say that I thought an extension announcement would be made by the end of the weekend. It really speaks to the urgency that exists within the Texas universe to make sure that Sarkisian is as happy as humanly possible in the name of keeping him in Austin.
2. What kind of leverage does Sarkisian have right now? It's his second extension in 11 months. At this point, it feels like we can expect money and years to be added to his contract on an annual basis as long as he keeps the heater going. It's good to be the king.
3. It sounds like the primary reward in this for Sarkisian is seeing his support staff receive the kind of pay bumps that make their departures expensive ventures for anyone that might want to tempt them. Good on Sark.
4. I know Brandon Harris is officially the team's general manager and he's slated to get a hefty raise coming out of this extension news, but I still feel like Sarkisian is the true GM of the program. Nothing happens without his fingerprints being all over it. It means in the month of December that he was juggling ...
a. Being the head coach of a playoff team.
b. Being the play-caller on offense of a playoff team.
c. Being the finisher of putting the final touches of a No. 1-ranked recruiting class together.
d. Supervising and spearheading all Portal activity.
He's basically doing everything but washing the socks and jocks. Harris is very well respected and is viewed as an indispensable piece of the program, but he's more of Sarkisian right-hand lieutenant than he is someone like Michael Lombardi, who is Bill Belichick's new GM at UNC and brings 30 years of experience in NFL front offices.
I'm still 1,000-percent in favor of Sarkisian eventually pushing for a hire for someone like Lombardi to help do some of the heavy lifting in these massively important areas in a way that would allow Sarkisian to focus as much as possible on ... oh, I don't know ... getting his offense above the 20-point mark in important playoff games. If the sport is going to be more and more like the NFL, not having someone with chops on the level of Lombardi in the GM position means that you're not maximizing what you need in that position at a program like Texas.
No. 5 - Please Remember ...
As Texas prepares to host its only Junior Day event in the month of January in the next week, I thought I would give everyone a friendly reminder ...
There's no need to freak out if the Longhorns don't come out of the weekend with a flurry of commitments.
a. This staff knows what it is doing.
b. Next weekend is about acquiring a notch on the belt with key prospects with regards to getting them on campus more than a half-dozen times between the spring of their junior seasons all the way to the day they sign their letter of intent.
c. This staff isn't always excited about getting a bunch of commitments because they prefer to be on the attack than on the defensive as a basic way of life. They will turn away possible commitments. Count on it.
d. Business will pick up in a big, big way in the summer. You can set your watch by it.
Breathe in. Exhale. Breathe in. Exhale. Breathe in. Exhale.
Some of you need the practice heading into the weekend.
No. 6 - Updated Scholarship Board ...
There will be more attrition in the spring, but this chart should stay pretty firm for the next few months, barring something happening off the field.
No. 7 – Ugh ...
As someone who watches every single minute of the Texas men's basketball team (and not because he's forced to), I feel it's well within my right to say the following ...
This season has turned into such a slog.
We knew that year one in the SEC was potentially going to deliver a beating because of the strength of the conference, but living through it is proving to take some real patience. Maybe even a disorder that allows a person to hang on in the midst of engagement with something that is begging you to let go.
It's not that this team doesn't fight its guts out. It's that there's no real upside to it.
The best-case scenario for the program? Live and die on the bubble for the rest of the season and then sneak into a play-in game as one of the last at-large selections? Oddly, I think there might be a better chance of this team winning two games in the Tournament to make the Sweet 16 than I do in its ability to win enough in the final 14-15 games of the season to actually make the Tournament.
With a 1-4 record in conference play, it just feels like the Longhorns are going to be chasing their tail the rest of the season in the hopes of getting to ... say ... 7-11 in conference play ... which may or may not be good enough to get Texas into the field of 68. In order to get to 7-11, this team is going to need to go 6-7 in its final 13 games.
Six of those 13 games are on the road and include games against five unranked teams.
Seven of the 15 games are at home and include games against four ranked teams, including three that ranked in the top 11 in the AP this week.
Either Texas is going to have to become damn near unbeatable at home in the coming weeks or it’s going to need to turn into road warriors against a bunch of up-and-down teams very similar to it in terms of season profile. Or maybe a combination of both? I'm not sure how confident I am that enough of either will occur that will get this team to the possible 7-11 finish line, which just feels like a crappy thing to be rooting for.
Oh well, I'm pot-committed at this point, so I'm in. I just know that it's not likely to feel like a party that you want to stay at until 2 a.m. because the fun is never-ending.
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) He's going to need to win two national titles and stay 10+ years to safely take over the top spot. That feels more unlikely from a statistical likelihood than it feels likely.
(Buy) Everyone knows this isn't good enough. If the crowds start to fade, it might serve as the death blow. They did not build the Moody Center for people to not show up.
(Sell) Shame? Jerry? Jerry Jones?
(Buy) None of this is proving to be easy.
(Buy) I think everyone will be disappointed if that's not the case.
(Sell) It will reinforce the importance of the TexasOne Fund and the need for more donor involvement.
(Buy) Absolutely.
(Sell) From an explosive plays standpoint, the Longhorns were at the top of the college football food chain this past season, even if those plays didn't usually come from the vertical passing game. A lot of talent needs to be replaced and improved. At the moment, Texas will be stronger at quarterback, but weaker on paper at running back, wide receiver, tight end and offensive line.
(Sell) I don't think it impacts what happens in the long-term at all.
(Sell) I don't know what the hell you are doing, but I didn't see the word bacon in that entire diatribe.
(Buy) Texas won the quarterback NIL lotto with Ewers and Manning.
(Buy) Big buy.
(Buy) It's not an easy decision, but I don't go back and watch many TV shows after I'm done with them. I've seen every movie I've ever loved more times than I can count. I love The Wire, but I don't need it constantly in my life like I need The Godfather I and II, Dirty Dancing and Pride and Prejudice.
(Buy) Anthony Hill and Colin Simmons in their A+ primes. Oh, hell yeah.
(Sell) He's a possible 3-year guy along the defensive line. He's that dynamic as a defensive prospect.
(Super duper 5-parlay buy) The only thing that gave me pause was the last question. I'm not sure that the loudest segment of the Texas fan base will be happy with just getting to the playoffs, but the silent minority probably would. Everything else? Yes.
(Sell) Not unless something happens to Ryan Wingo and/or the Longhorns can't make additions in the Portal.
(Buy) What could possibly go wrong?
(Buy) The coaches have to know they can't do this again.
(Buy) They are going to mollywhop the Irish.
(Buy) At a minimum, I expect roster help to made after the spring.
(Double sell) That last question was a doozy.
(Buy) I worry about everything. Or maybe I'm just always aware of the things that can be worried about. Those aren't quite the same things, I suppose.
(Sell) Fourth round.
(Sell) He's going to be a starter at SDE.
No. 9 – Scattershooting all over the place …
... Former Longhorns left in the NFL playoffs: Xavier Worthy (Chiefs), Charles Omenihu (Chiefs), Moro Ojomo (Eagles) and Sam Cosmi (Washington). Sadly, Cosmi tore an ACL against the Lions and won't play in a Super Bowl if the Commanders make it.
... As a Cowboys fan, I could have done without a Washington/Philadelphia match-up in the NFC Championship game. ****.
... Thanks, Jerry.
... Saquan Barkley is something else.
... What is it going to take for the Texans to take the next step from conference semifinals to something higher? This team just feels like it's potentially going to be very good and maybe never great. Is that harsh?
... Come on, Kris Boyd. Use your brain.
... How in the hell is this Kansas City team 16-2 and one win away from another Super Bowl? Joe Montana never did THIS.
... I would have cried if I was Dan Campbell, too. How in the world did that happen?
... Jared Goff just isn't good enough. He's Kirk Cousins' cousin.
... So, the Dodgers are going to be good this season, huh?
... I get the feeling that the No. 2 South Carolina women desperately want another crack at No. 1 UCLA?
... It barely feels like Kevin Durant plays in the NBA right now. That's how relevant the Suns are. He's still averaging 26.8/6.4/4.2 and while shooting 52.1/37.3/92.2. His career averages are 27.3/7.0/4.4 and 50.1/38.6/88.2. He's basically still producing in-his-prime numbers at 36 years old. Get the hell out of there, Kevin!
... Premier League Thoughts: This was basically a perfect weekend for Liverpool. I felt like I floated on cloud nine all weekend. Just keep getting three points every weekend. I'm not saying Saturday was a nail in the coffin for Arsenal, but they have to find a way to start being flawless without too many critical players. The battle for Top 5 is going to be hand-to-hand combat the rest of the season and if Forest doesn't fall back to the pack, a really good team is going to miss out on Champions League. It's not going to be Man City because it feels like Stella is getting her groove back. Goodness gracious, Bournemouth. The Cherries put it on Newcastle like Bud put it on Wes Hightower at the end of Urban Cowboy. I'm really not sure what to make of the Tottenham project at this point. If Brighton played Man United 10 times, would they win less than 8 times?
No. 10 – The List: Oscars Rankings
Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday at 7:30 a.m. (central) and there are still a number of critical movies that I haven't seen yet, including The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown and Wicked.
That being said, here are my 2024-2025 Oscars favorites based on the movies I have seen so far this season.
Best Picture
1. Dune Part II
2. Conclave
3. Anora
4. Emilia Perez
5. Challengers
6. A Different Man
7. A Real Pain
8. Inside Out 2
9. Hit Man
10. The Substance
Still need to see: September 5, The Brutalist, Sing Sing, Wicked, I’m Still Here, Maria, Nickel Boys, The Apprentice, Babygirl, A Complete Unknown and Queer.
Best Actor
1. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
2. Sebastian Stan A Different Man)
3. Glen Powell (Hit Man)
4. Nicholas Hoult (Juror No. 2)
5. Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain)
Best Actress
1. Mikey Madison (Anora)
2. Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez)
3. Demi Moore (The Substance)
4. Zendaya (Challengers)
5. Toni Collette (Juror No. 2)
Best Supporting Actor
1. Kieran Culkin (A Real Man))
2. Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
3. Stanleyu Tucci (Conclave)
4. Yura Borisov (Anora)
5. John Lithgow (Conclave)
Best Supporting Actress
1. Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez)
2. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
3. Margaret Quakkey (The Substatnce)
4. Selena Gomez (Emilia Perez)
5. Saoirse Ronan (Blitz)
Best Director
1. Denis Villeneuve (Dune II)
2. Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez)
3. Sean Baker (Anora)
4. Edward Berger (Conclave)
5. Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
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