My goal today is to be as crystal clear as I can possibly be.
It is my opinion after almost three seasons of covering Charlie Strong that his performance does not warrant a fourth season as the head football coach at The University of Texas.
It is my reporting and continued discussions with high-level sourcing within the Texas football universe that tells me as of Sunday afternoon, there’s probably a better chance of him returning at this point than being dismissed at season’s end.
It is my opinion that Strong is the worst coach in school history and the Michael Scott of college football. What I mean by that last part is that just like the former regional manager at Dunder Mifflin, much of what he does I can’t truly process, but there seems to be a method to his madness because he always does just enough to stay employed.
It is my reporting that tells me Strong currently has enough support among important Texas alumni and administration members that a 7-5 record will probably allow for a return in 2017 and as a result of that, the Longhorns now need to win only two of their final three games to accomplish that feat.
It is my opinion that outside of his success in recruiting in the last two classes, Strong has been a disaster in too many areas of his job, ranging from staff building to important decision-making to in-game management.
It is my reporting that tells me that all things being equal, the Texas administration would rather not have to eat more than $13 million after the season in replacing Strong and potentially all of his assistants if it doesn’t have to. The remaining portion of his contract, which I believe was poorly constructed, is so large that the idea of replacing Strong is almost a non-starter for some high-level administration members.
It is my opinion that
Strong is the worst in-game manager of football that I have ever covered on a professional level and when it comes to clock management, he’s the Andy Reid of the college game.
It is my reporting that tells me that there are some high-level members of the Texas football universe that prefer change, but not enough of them and potentially not enough important people to offset the political aces and high-level donors that appear to be in Strong’s corner.
It has been my opinion for more than 12 months that the Longhorns needed to act swiftly in finding their next athletic director because of exactly the situation that exists.
It is my reporting that says the Longhorns aren’t likely to turn their attention to hiring a new athletic director until the spring of 2017.
It was my opinion at one point in September that it was okay to dream big about this team, based largely on the fact that I view the Big 12 as a dumpster fire without any teams good enough to serve as extinguishers. It was also my opinion coming into the season that if you set the over/under of Texas wins this season that the under was the smart bet to make.
I hope all of that is clear.
No. 2– The 7-5 argument ...
In a conversation with a high-level source a few days ago, the topic of a potential 7-5 record and its impact on the decision to potentially bring Strong back for 2017 came up.
“It shows progress...,” the source said.
At a very basic level, a 7-5 record this season would show progress based on the incredibly low standard set from the last two seasons. It would allow the team to qualify for a bowl game and it would assure that win or lose, the program would finish with a winning record.
“But…" the source continued.
Ah, yes. The dreaded “but” in the middle of the sentence. The rub for this conversation is that if you peel a layer back on the record and ask a few questions, the true level of progress accomplished this season is pretty minimal. No one would have argued before the season that wins over (ranked at the time as top-10 teams) Notre Dame and Baylor wouldn’t register as big-time wins because we thought those teams had a chance to be really good.
You can lift those wins up as major accomplishments if you want, but the reality is that Notre Dame is a 3-6 team that had as much trouble with Navy on a neutral field than it did the Longhorns, while the Baylor team the Longhorns edged at home just lost by 40 at home to a team with Kenny Hill as its quarterback.
In my opinion, the Longhorns haven’t played a single team that is better than pretty good and most of the schedule is just downright average at best. This is the worst set of teams in the history of the Big 12 and the Longhorns are just a middle of the pack team.
At least a year ago, Oklahoma proved to be a very good team, which made that victory count for something special.
What is UT’s best win this season? Beating the 3-6 Irish in overtime? Whipping 3-6 UTEP? That memorable rolling of 1-8 Iowa State? The win last week over a Baylor team that just lost by 40? Or Saturday’s win over 4-5 Texas Tech?
It has to be the Baylor win, right? A Bears team that might be 7-5 by the end of the season?
Is being average against average really any improvement at all?
My goodness, the bar for success is barely off the ground around these parts.
No. 3 – All D’Onta, all the time ...
While reading the
Sunday Pulpit on Sunday morning, a number of thoughts popped into my head about the best thing we’ve seen in a Longhorn uniform since 2009.
A. Can you believe there were times last season when D’Onta wasn’t starting and wasn’t getting carries because of the presence of Johnathan Gray? He didn’t start a single game last season, despite averaging the second-most yards per carry of any back in the Big 12. How many games might have been different a year ago if the Longhorns had fed the beast like they are this season?
B. Foreman wasn’t even the full-time No. 1 at the start of this season and is only getting the workload that he’s receiving because Chris Warren is injured.
C. Even when I know Foreman needs a rest or a one-play break, I find myself wanting him to get the ball on every snap. I’m feeling a little guilty about my lack of shame for not feeling sorry if he’s being run into the ground. Sorry, D’Onta.
D. If Warren had stayed healthy, isn’t the likelihood of Foreman
having to come back for his senior year substantially higher? Warren’s misfortune has allowed for Foreman to truly spread his wings as a player and now it’s hard to imagine he could ever improve his stock from where it will be at the end of the season.
E. Foreman averages 79 more yards per game than the No. 2 rusher (OU’s Joe Mixon) in the Big 12 and 45 yards more than the No. 5 rusher in the country (Boise State’s Jeremy McNichols).
F. Foreman has to be the favorite for the Doak Walker Award, right? Major favorite, right?
G. West Virginia gives up 148 rushing yards per game.
No. 4– Big 12 defenses ...
There was a moment in Saturday’s game in the first quarter when I’d pretty much had enough of covering Big 12 football.
With both offenses finding almost zero resistance, it felt like I was watching nothing more than the kind of seven-on-seven scrimmaging that doesn’t really require a football uniform.
After years of the league morphing from an offensive league into a no-defense league, have we reached the point of no return?
Is it even possible to be a nationally elite defense in the Big 12?
I’m starting to think not. Not unless Oklahoma and Texas have the rare kind of developed athletes at once that they used to have almost a decade ago. I’m 85.85-percent sure that none of the other teams in the conference have any chance of ever being good on defense.
Not now. Not in 2020. Not in 2025 if the league still exists.
Even when the Texas defense is playing moderately well as it did Saturday, no one would suggest that what they watched was next-level play. It was just pretty good.
What I’ve come to learn is that the best thing you can do is specialize in creating turnovers, sacks and win on third downs. Forget about yardage completely. Forget about all of the old standards that we used to hold good defensive play up to. Hell, holding Pat Mahomes to under 400 yards registered as a good day.
In three years, Charlie Strong has proven that as a defensive coach, he’s pretty hit or miss on any given Saturday and if he can’t build good defenses, I’m starting to think that only Nick Saban could save this league on that side of the ball.
Other than that, we’ve likely seen the last of great defensive football in this conference.
No. 5– Scattershooting on the Longhorns ...
… Unsung Hero of the Game (offense): Armanti Foreman. It’s easy to take six catches for 65 yards for granted from him these days.
… Unsung Hero of the Game (defense): Holton Hill. All it took to get out of the doghouse this week was for the Longhorns to play a team that would force them into dime. Whatever the reason, Hill played like a guy that should be on the field a lot more moving forward.
… Jeffrey McCulloch is going to be a damn good player sooner rather than later.
… Running back is a pretty important need in the 2017 recruiting year. The fact that Tyrone Swoopes is a co-No. 2 running back right now is very telling of what needs to happen.
… Buechele is No. 5 in the Big 12 in terms of passing efficiency with a 148.3 rating. You can make the case that Texas will have the quarterback advantage in each of the final three games.
… Why has it taken so long to get Edwin Freeman on the field and does his emergence mean less reps for Anthony Wheeler, who wasn’t really missed over the weekend?
… As the season has gone along, it seems like we sure talk about a questionable decision or two each week from Sterlin Gilbert. He’s done a tremendous job this season in building this offense, but we’re reminded each week that he’s still a guy on the rise and not quite a coach near the mountaintop.
No. 6 – Buy or sell …
BUY or SELL: We finish 8-4 or 7-5, and our recruiting class finishes in the top 10?
(Sell) A top-10 recruiting class? Huh? If you look at the remaining top 30-40 prospects in the state that are uncommitted, few list Texas as a favorite right now. I could see Texas finishing with a top-20 class because a few four stars and a bunch of highly regarded three stars can get you in that ballpark, but this class is not headed in the direction of the last two.
BUY or SELL: Clint Hurtt is the DC for Texas in 2017?
(Sell) He’s clearly the guy that Charlie would like to bring in if the Texas administration will ignore that pesky former show-cause based on what I’ve heard, but I’ve always believed there’s no way Texas would sign off on something like that, but who knows? Maybe in an effort to make it look like they’ve given Strong everything he’s ever wanted and to eliminate any excuses, they will.
BUY or SELL: No one at Texas has the guts to fire Charlie Strong in spite of a three year demonstration of mediocrity?
(Sell) Guts isn’t the right word as much as motivation is.
BUY or SELL: Assuming Strong is back, the light switch on in-game decisions will finally go on or a mechanism (s) will be put in to address this major deficiency?
(Sell) Nope.
BUY or SELL: Sterling Gilbert cost us wins against Cal (not enough runs), OU (3 points off 4 turnovers), and K-State (0 points off 3 turnovers) and hasn't received enough blame for those losses?
(Sell) I’m not going to say he cost Texas all of those games, but he probably should be viewed as a little more responsible for what happened in those games than he’s been forced to own.
BUY or SELL: We don't throw over the middle more often because Coach Gilbert doesn't know how to coach those types of plays?
(Sell) I think Gilbert has done as much as he can do eliminate dangerous areas for his freshman quarterback and some of those throws are absolutely viewed as such.
BUY or SELL: Foreman runs for over 148 yards vs WVU (45th ranked rushing D)?
(Buy) There’s no reason for him to be held under 200 yards.
BUY or SELL: Shane Buechele is a better QB at this stage of the game than Colt McCoy was through his first nine games?
(Sell) It’s probably a push for me. The defenses that Buechele are playing leave a lot to be desired.
BUY or SELL: Tom Herman's name should be taken off any coaching search if he loses another game?
(Sell) Not if you think he’s elite.
BUY or SELL: OB has more subscribers now (during a really bad time for football) than during 2005 or 2009?
(Buy) Our last big surge in numbers occurred when Strong was hired and we’ve been holding mostly steady since then. Overall, 2005-09 was a major time of growth for the site and probably shouldn’t be compared to today’s dynamics.
BUY or SELL: The rise of high-octane offenses and 4-hour games will lead CFB to no longer stop the clock after every first down in the near future?
(Buy) Otherwise, we’re headed towards five-hour games.
No. 7 – College Football randomness ...
… If I had a vote that mattered …
1. Alabama
2. Michigan
3. Washington
4. Clemson
5. Louisville
6. Ohio State
… Big 12 Power Poll
1. Oklahoma
2. Oklahoma State
3. West Virginia
4. Kansas State
5. TCU
6. Texas
7. Baylor
8. Texas Tech
9. Iowa State
10. Kansas
… You’ll have to forgive me, but I thought Alabama/LSU was a dog of a game. That Alabama defense is a monster, but a lot of what was on display was just bad football.
… Poooooooor Aggies.
… Once you get beyond the top six teams in the country, there’s a lot of crap out there. Seriously, does anyone believe in a true quality year in the sport that West Virginia is ranked 11th? There’s a better chance it finishes out of the top 25 at the end of the year than 11th.
… Notre Dame had six offensive possessions in the entire game against Navy. All I can say to that is … wow.
… Michigan might be the most interesting team in the nation right now. That’s an entertaining brand of football that team is playing.
… Get well, Tommy Armstrong.
… Baylor wore all-black this weekend as a way of attending its own funeral and paying respect to its rotted soul.
… Speaking of the Bears, Jim Grobe has zero control on his team or assistants. That his assistant coaches made an Art Briles protest Tweet without his knowledge speaks volumes.
… Don’t look now, but the ol’ Pirate has a little something cooking in Pullman right now.
No. 8 – Dak Boy is Good!
Sunday reminded me of the good ol’ days of the 90s when the Cowboys would show up in an opposing stadium with as many of their fans as opposing fans and then just pummel the opposition in such a way that it basically turned into a stats game.
Dak got his. Zeke got his. Witten got his. Beasley got his. The defense got some. Basically, everybody got theirs with the exception of Dez.
Oh well. It ain’t the 90s all over again just yet, but damnit the first eight games of this season has been fun.
Maybe I’ll even give everyone permission to dream big before the season is over.
No. 9 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
… Scattershooting on week nine of the NFL:
A. Pittsburgh has been shockingly bad at times this season and Sunday at Baltimore was one of those times.
B. If I’m Andy Reid, I’m having a one-on-one meeting with Travis Kelce on Monday morning.
C. Please, Hammer, don’t hurt’em.
D. Jay Ajayi is one of the stories of the year in the NFL. Good for that dude after having so many people claim he would never be healthy enough to even play in the league.
E. Carson Wentz is exactly what we suspected he really was.
F. The Vikings are in free-fall.
G. If San Diego can crawl all of the way out of its hole and find a way to make the playoffs, that’s a dangerous football team.
H. What in the world got into the Colts?
… After Thursday night, I’m never looking back again if I’m Kevin Durant. Let that ex be your ex and just worry about what’s in front of you.
… My favorite Joel Embiid moment from the weekend.
… Which of you suckers paid for the Pac-Man fight this weekend?
… Consider me a believer in Tony Ferguson after he whupped Rafael dos Anjos over the weekend in Mexico City at UFC Fight Night. I’m all-in next weekend for UFC205, as I think it’s the best card in the time I’ve been watching the sport.
… Not a good Sunday for the New York MLS teams. Good grief, the NYFC just flat out quit in the middle of the playoffs.
… What in the world was Bruce Arena thinking by having Ashley Cole attempt his first penalty kick of his career as his third option with the season on the line? The Galaxy just melted down in penalty kicks.
… Was that the last match of Steven Gerrard’s career?
… Some of you can bemoan Liverpool’s early success this season all you want, but I know you’re just envious that our coach is ours and his style of play is ours. Admit it, you love watching the Reds play.
… Top. Of. The. Table.
… The top five on the table in the EPL have combined for five losses all season. Liverpool is the only team to have defeated two top-five teams (both on the road) and only Man City and Arsenal have beaten a single top-five team outside of Liverpool (not including Burnley).
… Of course, Man City was dragged into the mud by Middlesbrough after beating Barcelona earlier in the week. Who couldn’t see that coming a mile away?
… If only Man United could play Swansea every week…
… Tottenham has more draws (six) than wins (five) and losses (none) combined in league play.
… Chelsea is in pretty good form right now, but the best team it has beaten all season is Man United.
… Pulisic to Liverpool in three months. Book it.
No. 10 - And finally …
Two more days. It's almost over.
