Is a mullet worth a mulligan?
With the news on Sunday night that Ohio State quarterback Quinn Ewers is transferring to Texas, Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian might not get a full mulligan for what transpired during the 2021 season, but the reality is that the news means that everyone in burnt orange will be looking forward for the next 10 months instead of looking backwards.
Make no mistake about it, this is a big deal.
The last time the Longhorns landed a player that was generally regarded as the nation's No.1 prospect, he led Texas to its only national championship of the last 50 years, so there's no overstating the significance of the moment.
As Ewers goes, so goes the Texas Longhorns under Sarkisian.
It doesn't matter that it's unfair. It doesn't matter that it somewhat marginalizes everyone else who might look to step in the way of the truth.
When you recruit and land a player of Ewers' stature, it's simply what comes with the territory. Remember Vince Young? Remember Chris Simms?
Add Ewers' name to the list.
In a lot of ways, tonight signals the beginning of the Sarkisian Era because whatever happens from here on out, his legacy will be tied to Ewers, and vice versa.
Buckle up. The fun is just beginning.
(A few more thoughts on the Ewers news...)
a. The moment Ewers left Lubbock without pledging his name to Joey McGuire's reclamation project in Lubbock, it was always going to be Texas. It literally didn't make any sense for Ewers to essentially become the first No.1 overall prospect in the history of the Rivals rankings to commit himself to a tier three school before he so much as played a game of football within a few months of signing. If there's a world where Ewers was ever going to choose Tech, it's one where it's his second transfer and not his first.
b. The battle for the starting job appears to be Casey Thompson vs. Ewers. In order to win the job, Thompson is going to have to be the best version of himself that he's ever been, but he's given strong signs that he'll fight for his job.
c. Ewers arrives with intentions to play two seasons and head off to the NFL. That might not ever be something that is admitted out loud, but it's the reality of this situation. If that is what transpires, it likely means he is one hell of a college player and the Longhorns have enjoyed the success that comes from that.
d. On one hand, this doesn't really have to impact Maalik Murphy at all because he was probably not ever going to be a starter before 2023 at the earliest to begin with, but it's hard to imagine Murphy and Ewers sharing space on the roster for two seasons because on the reality that it so rarely happens in this modern age with two highly rated quarterbacks in the same class.
No. 2 - ... Kyle Flood does the damn thing...
When Kelvin Banks committed to Oregon in the summer, one of the things that stood out about the moment was that the Longhorns seemed to truly be on the outside looking in, as Banks kept steady contact with the Oregon and Texas A&M coaches via Zoom in the final 24 hours leading up to his decision, while the Longhorns weren't really involved.
Considering the needs that Texas has along the offensive line, finishing in third place for such a critical prospect felt like a failure for Texas offensive line coach Kyle Flood. As one of the highest paid non-coordinators in the country, Flood was brought to Austin to specifically close the deals with prospects like Banks.
Despite the setback, Flood just kept chipping away. Chipping Away. Chipping Away. Even in the midst of a disastrous 5-7 season, he just kept chipping away. Surely, he must have wondered if he was wasting his time at various points in the process.
On Saturday, the diligence paid off in a big way. On Sunday, he followed up one flip with another by pulling Duncanville's Cam Williams into the offensive line cupboard. Devon Campbell and Malik Agbo appear to be on deck.
In the ashes of such a poor season when it looked like he might be scrambling to fill spots, Flood has emerged as a legit candidate for National Recruiter of the Year honors. From my vantage point, his stock at this level as a recruiter has never been higher. It's one thing to kick ass as a piece of the Nick Saban Alabama machine, but to do what he's doing in the circumstances he's doing them in ...
It's elite of the elite stuff.
Well done, Kyle Flood.
No. 3 - The greatest OL class in Texas history ...
As someone that has Futurecasts in for Devon Campbell and Malik Agbo to Texas, let's just take a moment to examine what an offensive line haul that features a six-man class of Banks, Williams, Connor Robertson, Cole Hutson, Campbell and Agbo looks like.
In the Rivals era of recruiting (2002-present), here's how I would personally rank the best offensive line classes that Texas has signed.
1. 2002 - 5 star Justin Blalock, 4 star Kasey Studdard, 4-star Neale Tweedie, 4-star Lyle Sendklein, 3-star Brett Valdez
2. 2007 - 5-star Tray Allen, 4-star (6.0) Michael Huey, 4-star (5.9) Aundre McGaskey and 4-star (5.8) Kyle Hix
3. 2009 - 5-star Mason Walters, 4-star (6.0) Garrett Porter, 4-star (5.8) Thomas Ashcraft and 3-star (5.7) Paden Kelley
4. 2013 - 4-star (6.0) Kent Perkins, 4-star (6.0) Darius James, 4-star (5.8) Rami Hammad and 3 star (5.7) Desmond Harrison
5. 2012 - 4-star Kennedy Estelle (5.9), 4-star Curtis Riser (5.9), Camhron Highes (5.8) and 4-star (5.8) Donald Hawkins
If the Longhorns sign the projected six-man class, it would include multiple 5-star prospects for the first time in school history.
Potential new No. 1 - 5-star Kelvin Banks, 5-star Devon Campbell, 4-star (5.8) Malik Agbo, 4-star (5.8) Cole Hutson, 3-star (5.7) Connor Robertson and 3-star (5.7) Cameron Williams
That feels like a sure-thing new No. 1 class in the making.
No. 4 - A look at the scholarship board ...
With the announcements of both commitments and a few departures in the last week, the numbers on the scholarship board don't look a lot different than they did a week ago.
The main takeaways to keep in mind.
* The Longhorns are sitting at 24 incoming players for the 2022 class, which can include high school recruits and transfers.
* Depending on how the NCAA D1 Council rules on the matter of COVID years being cashed in for the 2022 season, the Longhorns need either 5 (if the current scholarship number is 81) or 8 (if the current scholarship number is 84) more players to leave before August in order for Texas to take the full 32 new incoming players that the NCAA will currently allow for. Keep in mind that the Longhorns can actually take 33 new incoming players because they had an extra scholarship available from last year's class.
No. 5 - Let's talk about Futurecasts ...
Nearly 10 months ago, I was bored late at night and found myself staring at my Lone Star Recruiting Top 100 list, wondering if there were any speculative Futurecasts that I might make. After not really paying much attention to Futurecasts in the previous recruiting cycle, I made a decision to take it all a little more seriously.
One of those speculative Futurecasts ended up going to a tight end prospect that Texas had just offered that week by the name of Jason Llewelyn from Aledo.
The very next day, Llewelyn committed to Oklahoma. Hell, it wasn't even the next day ... it was like 10 hours later. It was the ultimate ...
All you could really do is chuckle over it. In this new world of fantasy football-like scorekeeping with regards to recruiting predictions, sometimes you have to learn the hard way about making speculative projections. What was kind of weird about it in the moment was how some people in the recruiting industry celebrated my projection fail as if they had found a new favorite video on Pornhub to share with the world.
Yet, on that same night, I made another speculative Futurecast - Devon Campbell to Texas. Over the course of the last (near) 10 months, I've never changed the projection.
I'm not sure that anyone has ever mentioned it.
I bring all of this up because on Sunday, I had a couple of Orangebloods subscribers take potshots at me for projecting Cameron Williams to Texas within hours of his commitment. Never mind that since his de-commitment from Oregon earlier in the week, no one else in the industry had entered a projection to Texas within 24 hours of his announcement. Never mind that the decision to visit Texas on Sunday following a playoff game the day before was kind of an on-the-fly decision.
It's almost like I'm damned if I do, damned if I don't ... which to be fair ... I'm kind of used to.
It got me to thinking ... what do my Futurecasts for the Longhorns look like in the 2022 recruiting cycle?
Let's take a look.
* RB - Jaydon Blue - Committed on 2/2 (Futurecasted to Texas on 1/14)
* LB - Trevell Johnson - Committed on 2/13 (Futurecasted to Texas on 2/9)
* QB - Maalik Murphy - - Committed on 2/13 (No Futurecast issued)
* DB - Bryan Allen Jr. - - Committed on 2/28 (Futurecasted to Texas on 2/24)
* DT - Kristopher Ross - - Committed on 3/23 (Futurecasted to Texas on 3/10)
* DE - Zac Swanson - - Committed on 4/26 (Futurecasted to Texas on 4/23)
* DS - Lance St. Louis - - Committed on 6/7 (No Futurecast issued)
* Ath - Anthony Jones - - Committed on 6/12 (Futurecasted to Texas on 6/12)
* PK - Will Stone - - Committed on 6/15 (Futurecasted to Texas on 6/15)
* OL - Cole Hutson - - Committed on 7/2 (Futurecasted to Texas on 6/13)
* OL - Connor Robertson - - Committed on 7/2 (Futurecasted to Texas on 2/19)
* DB - Austin Jordan - - Committed on 7/14 (Futurecasted to OU on 3/13)
* LB - Derrick Brown - - Committed on 7/31 (Futurecasted to Texas on 6/6)
* DB - Ronald Lewis - - Committed on 8/5 (Futurecasted to Texas on 8/5)
* DT - Aaron Bryant - - Committed on 8/26 (Futurecasted to Texas on 8/3)
* DE - J'Mond Tapp - - Committed on 8/30 (Futurecasted to Texas on 8/30)
* DT - Jaray Bledsoe - Committed on 8/30 (Futurecasted to Texas on 7/12)
* DE - Justice Finkley - Committed on 9/9 (Futurecasted to Texas on 9/9)
* WR - Brenan Thompson - Committed on 10/6 (Futurecasted to Texas on 10/5)
* DB - Jaylon Guilbeau - Committed on 11/25 (Futurecasted to TCU on 7/22)
* LB - Kobie McKenzie - Committed on 12/5 (Futurecasted to Texas on 11/29)
* OL - Kelvin Banks - Committed on 12/11 (Futurecasted to Texas on 12/6)
* OL - Cameron Williams - Committed on 12/12 (Futurecasted to Texas on 12/12)
A few notes...
a. On the futurecasts that I missed, the Austin Jordan one counts as a miss, but the Guilbeau flip from TCU occurred in a way that simply never allowed for me to change the pick. Weirdly, all of the misses that had him going to Texas before his commitment to TCU are now hits and all of the corrected picks in the summer are now wrong. lulz.
b. Of the 6 players with Futurecasts issued on the day of their commitments, I can't find any Futurecasts/Crystal Balls that were made for the prospects more than 24 hours of their commitments outside of a few people that picked Cameron Williams to end up at Texas before he committed to Oregon.
c. Level 1 - The only Futurecasts that anyone cares about are the ones they can criticize you over.
No. 6 – The quest for a title comes up short …
The Texas volleyball team spent most of the season ranked No. 1 in the country. It won yet another Big 12 championship. The road to another Final Four went through Austin.
Honestly, this weekend's regional finals felt like a formality.
Except, it wasn't. The Longhorns just never had it. They didn't have it against Washington, but a frantic comeback in 5 games saved them. On Saturday night, they didn't have it and Nebraska punished them.
Suddenly, a season that had designs of a national championship has come up short and it's hard to know how to judge a season that comes up so short of incredibly lofty goals and expectations.
It doesn't feel fair that a 27-2 season feels like a disappointment, but here we are.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) Texas won't be back until it puts up multiple 10+ win seasons in order.
(Buy) Consider me incredibly surprised that Texas is piecing this together following a 5-7 season. The 2022 class wasn't giving Sarkisian and his staff the benefit of the doubt before the season, but they are following a six-game losing streak. Wild.
(Buy) That feels about right. I don't know if he's a day one starter, but it might not be far from it.
(Buy) This off-season feels a little like the 2015 off-season when pretty much anyone else could start at quarterback other than the guy who had his fingerprints all over a poor 2014 season. I wonder how much political capital Sark would be giving up if he goes with Thompson and it proves to be a poor decision. There will be more slack given if Ewers is starting.
(Buy) Absolutely.
(Sell) My wife and kids have to live with me and they do not want to see that,
(Buy) The offensive line issues won't be solved in a single off-season with a bunch of kids. Keep in mind that the likes of Lyle Sendlein and Casey Studdard needed three seasons before the light switch fully flipped on. It's going to take time.
(Sell) However, It might be an indication that another year of high school football would have served him well.
(Sell) It's going to take more than a few months to change the culture.
(Sell) I think all of the events from the last couple of weeks have been fantastic, but I'm not sure that it changes my overall viewpoint of Sarkisian, which remains very unsure.
(Buy) I'll go out on a limb and say he comes in as a very high-paid analyst.
(Buy) Yup.
(Buy) Texas has been due for a few good bounces for a while. They've certainly received some.
(Buy) Texas needs immediate help and not all of these linemen in the 2022 class are players the staff should be expecting immediate contributions from.
(Buy) ALL of them if possible.
(Buy) Venables is a perfectly fine coach, but he's replacing one of the best coaches in the country and an absolute elite of the elite offensive coach. Considering where the program has been, it's hard for them not to take a step back, given the circumstances.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the sports weekend ...
... I have no real issues with Bryce Young winning the Heisman, but I would have voted for Aidan Hutchinson because I'm not truly sure that Young is the best player on his own team.
... Micah Parsons is some kind of football player. He might be my favorite Cowboys player since Demarcus Ware.
... I always love shoving it in Washington's face, so nice job on Sunday, Cowboys. I don't care how it looked at the end.
... What will the Texans do with their first-round pick this year? It feels like the wrong year to have the top pick.
... We're going to get the Chiefs and the Bucs in the Super Bowl again, huh?
... The trashy offensive line in Baltimore finally cost them big-time this weekend.
... Kevin Durant got fined $25K for calling some dude a "mfer" in the stands on Saturday night. Money well spent?
No. 9 - Top 10 Celebrity encounters ...
I've had the good fortune over the years to meet quite a few interesting and notable people. I thought it might make for an interesting Top 10 list this week.
Below are my favorite memories with famous people.
10. Shaquille O'Neal - I walked into the Eastern Conference All-Star team's locker room in 1996 with a media pass right after the game was over because I wanted to listen in to the post-game interviews, but instead I walked in as Shaq was coming out of the shower without a towel. I walked out almost as fast I walked in, but some things can never be unseen.
9. Willie Nelson - Yes, I've been on Willie's bus. Yes, there were people smoking. No, I was not one of them. Talk about life regrets.
8. Shania Twain - I actually met a bunch of celebs at the 1996 NBA All-Star game in San Antonio, but the highlight of highlights was searching the arena for Twain, who hadn't yet emerged as a world superstar just yet. My buddy and I walked all over the Alamodome looking for her and were about to give up when I walked out of the bathroom and saw her autographing some dude's chest. I circled around her so that when my friend walked out of the bathroom I would be able to point her out without causing a scene. Yet, when he walked out and saw her, all he could do was point at her and scream, "Look, it's Shania Twain!!!"
7. Denzel Washington - Had a chance to hang out with him on the sidelines of the 2002 US Army All-American Bowl, while watching his son (and future actor) John Davis Washington and a future UT quarterback named Vince Young.
6. Mickey Rourke - It was nearly 2 a.m. one night at a club in Austin when I ran into my cousin. He asked me if I wanted to come have shots with Bruce Willis. I told him, "Hell yeah." So, we went over to have shots with Bruce Willis and my cousin raised his glass and told him that he was awesome in the movie Die Hard. I looked at my cousin and told him, "Dude, that's not Bruce Willis. That's Mickey Rourke."
5. Darren Woodson - When he was a rookie in 1992 with the Cowboys, I spent about an hour with Woodson at some pre-season training camp dinner. Both of us had braces on our teeth. He might have been the single nicest athlete I've ever met in person.
4. Julius Erving - I was able to have dinner with Dr. J in Vegas a few years ago when I was working with Yahoo Sports Radio. It's the only time in my life that I ever went full-on fan boy in front of an athlete. For some reason, I made a point to tell him about my memories of watching him play in his final game with the Sixers when I was 10 years old.
3. Charles Barkley - My favorite athlete as a kid growing up, I walked into Sir Charles in 1988 when he was still with the Sixers while he was walking to the arena to play the Spurs. Only a few people seemed to know who he was, but he was totally engaged with me for about 5 minutes because I was wearing his jersey. It was pretty awesome.
2. George W. Bush - Back when he was merely the governor of Texas, I used to sit with him at Texas men's basketball games along the baseline at the Erwin Center. He never called me by my first name, only the nickname "Big Boy." He must have called me that a dozen times over the span of a couple of years.
1. Roger Staubach - Watching Monday Night Football in his suite at Texas Stadium is one of the best moments of my entire life. The Cowboys beat the Eagles and Captain Comeback served me a hot dog. Life doesn't get much better than that.
No. 10 - And Finally...
If this doesn't warm your heart, something is wrong with you.
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