It’s one of the more tedious things I do every single year … charting the NFL Draft.
For the last four years, I spend hours breaking every single pick down by Rivals recruiting rankings with the hope that I can learn as much as one can from an inexact science.
If you’ve been reading this column every year, you know what’s coming next, which is a whole bunch of numbers that will eventually point out one incredibly important truth, one that will make a few of the people reading this a little blue in the face.
Recruiting matters. A lot.
Year in and year out in college football, the teams with the most talent are the ones competing for and winning national championships and more times than not, one can use the results from the NFL Draft as a representation for what “most talent” translates to.
Before we get to the number crunching, a couple of important notes about the data that we reinforce every single year.
1. There are currently 128 FBS programs playing college football in 2014, which means there are 10,880 scholarship players in college football if every school has maxed out its 85-man scholarship limit.
2. From 2011-2013 (the three classes that almost exclusively made up the 2016 NFL Draft Class), Rivals.com rated on the average 3,687.67 players per year (including JUCO and prep schools), with the average star distribution breakdown looking like this:
Five stars (6.1): 31
Four stars (6.0): 36.33
Four stars (5.9): 61.67
Four stars (5.8): 221
Three stars (5.7) 332
Three stars (5.6) 471.33
Three stars (5.5) 656.33
Two stars (5.4) 830.67
Two stars (5.3) 516.33
Two stars (5.2) 521.67
Two stars (5.1) 8.33
With those numbers serving as the foundation of the average Rivals.com recruiting class numbers over a three-year window, let's break down what the numbers look like over the course of all seven rounds of the NFL Draft this year, beginning with a look at the numbers in the first round:
Five stars (6.1): 5
Four stars (6.0): 4
Four stars (5.9): 2
Four stars (5.8): 9
Three stars (5.7) 5
Three stars (5.6) 0
Three stars (5.5) 3
Two stars (5.4) 1
Two stars (5.3) 0
Two stars (5.2) 0
Two stars (5.1) 0
Unranked: 2
Here's what the translates to when you crunch the numbers (last year’s number is bolded and in parenthesis):
a. One out of every 6.22 five-star (6.1) prospects was drafted in the first round.
b. One out of every 9.08 top-tier (6.0) four-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
c. One out of every 30.84 mid-tier (5.9) four-star prospects was drafted in the first
round.
d. One out of every 24.56 low-tier (5.8) four-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
e. One out of every 66.40 top-tier (5.7) three-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
f. Zero out of every 471.33 mid-tier (5.6) three-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
g. One out of every 218.70 low-tier (5.5) three-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
h. One out of every 830.67 top-tier (5.4) two-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
i. Zero out of every 516.33 mid-tier (5.3) two-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
j. Zero out of every 530 low-tier (5.2) two-star prospects was drafted in the first round
In a more generic sense, the numbers look like this:
a. One out of every 6.22 five-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
b. One out of every 21.27 four-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
c. One out of every 182.46 three-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
d. One out of every 1,877 two-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
Here's what the numbers look like when we expand the sample size out to the first three rounds of the draft (98 selections):
Five stars (6.1): 17
Four stars (6.0): 11
Four stars (5.9): 9
Four stars (5.8): 18
Three stars (5.7) 11
Three stars (5.6) 6
Three stars (5.5) 14
Two stars (5.4) 6
Two stars (5.3) 0
Two stars (5.2) 1
Unranked: 5
Here's what the translates to when you crunch the numbers
a. One out of every 1.82 five-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
b. One out of every 3.30 top-tier (6.0) four-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
c. One out of every 6.85 mid-tier (5.9) four-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
d. One out of every 12.28 low-tier (5.8) four-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
e. One out of every 30.18 top-tier (5.7) three-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
f. One out of every 78.56 mid-tier (5.6) three-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
g. One out of every 46.88 low-tier (5.5) three-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
h. One out of every 207.67 top-tier (5.4) two-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
i. Zero out of every 516.33 mid-tier (5.3) two-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
j. One out of every 530.00 low-tier (5.2/5.1) two-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds
Broken down by star groupings alone, the numbers look like this:
a. One out of every 1.82 five-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
b. One out of every 13.62 four-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
c. One out of every 47.09 three-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
d. One out of every 268.16 two-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
Finally, here's the final breakdown of numbers once you include all seven rounds of the draft:
Five stars (6.1): 19
Four stars (6.0): 18
Four stars (5.9): 19
Four stars (5.8): 41
Three stars (5.7) 28
Three stars (5.6) 30
Three stars (5.5) 33
Two stars (5.4) 18
Two stars (5.3) 3
Two stars (5.2/5.1) 7
Unranked: 20
Here's what the translates to when you crunch the numbers
a. One out of every 1.63 five-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
b. One out of every 2.02 top-tier (6.0) four-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
c. One out of every 3.25 mid-tier (5.9) four-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
d. One out of every 5.39 low-tier (5.8) four-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
e. One out of every 11.86 top-tier (5.7) three-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
f. One out of every 15.71 mid-tier (5.6) three-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
g. One out of every 19.89 low-tier (5.5) three-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
h. One out of every 46.15 top-tier (5.4) two-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
i. One out of every 172.11 mid-tier (5.3) two-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
j. Zero out of every 75.71 low-tier (5.2/5.1) two-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds
Broken down by star groupings alone, the numbers look like this:
a. One out of every 1.63 five-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
b. One out of every 4.09 four-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
c. One out of every 16.04 three-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
d. One out of every 67.04 two-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
No. 2 – Crunching the Data ...
… The five-stars in this Draft class didn’t quite perform as well as the five-stars from a year ago at the top of the draft in the first round, but still performed better than the five-stars in the 2013 and 2014 classes. In a four-year window, the rate of five-stars going in the first round of the draft ranked from 3.58-7.33. As it relates to simply being drafted, the numbers from year to year are remarkably consistent considering the limited sample size. For instance, the difference between the 2014 and 2015 results as it relates to producing talent taken somewhere in the seven rounds of the draft was .20 (one in every 1.43 vs. 1.63).
… The difference between the 6.0 (high four-star) vs. the 6.1 (five-star) rankings is pretty damn slight. Consider the breakdown in selected prospects by tier:
(1st round) 1 in every 6.22 vs. 9.08
(1st-3rd rounds) 1 in every 1.82 vs. 3.30
(4th-7th rounds) 1 in every 1.63 vs. 2.02
Translation: There aren’t quite as many spectacular talents in the second tier of the rivals rankings as the first tier, but the overall value from No. 1-30 in the rankings isn’t significantly more valuable than that of the prospects ranked No. 31-65. You’re more likely to get a first-round pick in the first group every year, but the number of overall drafted players rates out pretty similarly.
… Occasionally, there have been years when the low four-star rankings are out-performed by the high-three star ranking, but that wasn’t the case at all, as the four-star rankings as a whole performed much better than the previously yearly three-year average, while the low four-star prospects performed as well as a group as they have at any point in the last four years. In fact, the low-four star tier typically belongs in a grouping with the three stars and not the four stars, but that was not the case this year as it outperformed every three-star tier by rates ranging from 3:1-6:1 over three rounds and 2:1-4:1 over seven rounds.
… It was not a good year for the two-star prospect. When you consider that there are between roughly 7,500-8,000 two-star players ranked every four years, producing one first-round pick and only seven of the first 98 picks of the draft is lower than the usual metrics. For instance, the 2014 NFL Draft produced four first-round picks that were ranked as two stars in the Rivals rankings.
… I’m going to break down the data that relates to the state of Texas in next week’s column, but there seemed to be an abnormal amount of lower-ranked prospects selected in this year’s class vs. previous seasons. For a state that has a reputation of turning out players with maxed out talent coming out of high school, a lot of players (relative to the other 49 states) seemed to be drafted from out of thin air situations coming out of high school. Stay tuned.
No. 3 – How the data impacts the 2016 season for Texas ...
As if every Longhorn fan on the planet needed a reminder of the hard times he or she has lived over the last six seasons, the NFL Draft seems to be an annual reminder of just how low the program has plummeted in recent years with regards to developing and producing elite-level college players who turn into NFL drafted prospects.
After a bit of a bounceback year in 2015 with a handful of drafted players, the 2016 Draft class reflected a 5-7 2015 season by producing a single fourth-round pick.
Or as one of Orangebloods’ favorite people to Photoshop put it on Twitter on Saturday in a troll job worth admiring …
You can hate the messenger all you want and you can refute the point with facts about Strong’s collection of Louisville talent that has been the toast of the NFL Draft in recent seasons, but there’s no getting around the fact that Texas A&M had as many walk-on punters drafted this year as the Longhorns had players, period. That is exactly how a program goes 5-7 and losses a bunch of games in ways that are almost indescribable.
My concern for the 2016 season is that the prospects for the 2017 NFL Draft don’t look significantly better.
As Alex Dunlap outlined in this week’s War Room, this is a senior class that is highlighted by Kent Perkins, Paul Boyette and Caleb Bluiett, while supplemented by a junior class that features D’Onta Foreman and not much else at this point.
I hate to beat a dead horse, but there’s just a frightening lack of senior class production on this team and it makes it hard to view this season though anything other than a rebuilding lens.
No. 4 – Scattershooting on the Longhorns ...
… I’m never going to begrudge a player for deciding he wants to be paid to play football on a professional level as opposed to playing it for free if he can, but it’s pretty clear that Texas defensive tackle Hassan Ridgeway would have better maximized his draft ceiling going into the NFL by sticking around for his senior year. In receiving a draft grade that ranged from the 2nd-4th round, it kind of looks like he heard the first part and stopped listening to the rest of the message. Still, in landing in round four, he’ll get a signing bonus in the $550,000 range and will receive a guaranteed four-year deal that will secure him another $1,560,000 over that time frame. That’s still a hell of a starting point for a young man heading into the NFL.
… Dear Hassan, manage your money well, my man. Treat it like a squirrel getting ready for the winter. The cost of coming out early is not being able to waste any money on a million dollar home, not for you or anyone else. Spend wisely.
… One of my favorite players to follow on Twitter is Charles Omenihu, who was clearly paying attention to the NFL Draft on Thursday night.
… I’ve got a feeling Duke Thomas has a chance to stick with the Texans, but he better go all-in on his work on special teams.
… Can’t wait to see Daje Johnson with the Falcons this summer. Hope he sticks around long enough to get into the pre-season games.
… Did someone say four-peat?
… The Texas baseball weekend in a Gif.
No. 5 – Buy or sell …
(As always, all of these questions were submitted by actual Orangebloods subscribers.)
BUY or SELL: The offensive line develops adequate depth with Thomas, Major, Rodriguez and Anderson, so the Freshmen can redshirt?
(Sell) You trolling me?
BUY or SELL: By the end of 2016 Season, ShackAttack has improved tremendously and (going out on a limb here) is our best O-Line prospect? (Really think he has potential at being A Great at Texas - His work ethic, physical nature, ability to adapt and learn, etc...)
(Sell) I think him being solid and surviving this season without his presence not being a negative is a good starting point for this first season. He’s yet to block anyone at this level that’s a truly plus-player.
BUY or SELL: Erick Fowler and Marcel Southall have no problems in summer school and are at Texas by the fall?
(Buy) I think they’ll both be good.
BUY or SELL: Texas will get more than three commits for the 2017 class before the start of the football season?
(Buy) I don’t know if the number will be much higher than that, but I’ll buy three, starting with Temple defensive end Taquon Graham.
BUY or SELL: One of Xavier Newman and Kobe Boyce find himself as a four-star recruit the next time rankings are updated?
(Sell) I think it takes slightly longer… like maybe two updates.
BUY or SELL: For the Longhorns to get to at least 8 wins in 2016, Shane Buechele needs to have a QBR of at least 140 and we need to rush for at least 2000 yards (all RBs combined)?
(Buy) Sounds totally spot on.
BUY or SELL: Duke Thomas has a better chance of making the practice squad than the 53 for the Houston Texans?
(Buy) It would be a good starting point for him.
BUY or SELL: Kevin Durant leaves OKC after this year?
(Sell) I’m not sure he has the guts to do it.
BUY or SELL: The Texans draft and free agency makes them a legitimate contender for the next 3-4 years for playoff berths and beyond?
(Sell)
Contender?
BUY or SELL: Jerrod Heard ends his career at UT?
(Buy) From what has been passed along to me, it seems like there is a better chance that he would embrace a possible position move to wide receiver over leaving the program.
No. 6 – Jerry has a very Jerry Draft …
Look, it’s not that I don’t believe Ezekiel Elliott is going to be a very good player or that Jaylon Smith might emerge as a transformative player in future years after a “redshirt” season in the NFL. If we’re looking at both players in very narrow prisms, I like them both as potential NFL starters.
However, the inclusion of both in this year’s draft class for the Cowboys reveals a very important truth about the team.
On one hand, it seems to be a franchise living very much in the now in these final seasons that Tony Romo is still situated as the starting quarterback.
On the other hand, it acted in the draft as if this was a team with one (drop) foot moving towards the future.
Either the team can’t pick an ideology or it can’t stick to it when the most important weekend of the year rolls around from a talent acquisition standpoint. Neither of those possibilities produces a positive reaction towards the brain trust that makes the important decisions.
If you believe that this is a true NFC contender with a healthy Romo, then this last season was a complete wasted opportunity and this draft represented a chance to cash in a few unintended positives directly related to the consequences of finishing as one of the worst teams in the league. Yet, with two prime draft choices in the top 35 of the proceedings, the Cowboys came away with only one player who can actually maximize this all-in for Romo’s last possible prime year.
A year ago, the team seemed to announce that it was wisely joining the modern view that prioritizing the running back position wasn’t the way to build a championship squad, yet a year later it used the most valuable draft asset it owned on a position that only three other teams similarly addressed in the top 118 picks of the Draft.
And then it followed that selection up with a pick on a player who won’t play this year, which means after a very quiet spell in free agency, the Cowboys didn’t get around to addressing their needs on defense IN THE RIGHT NOW until the third round.
I … mean … pick a freaking plan and stick to it, already.
In terms of grading the draft, it would seem third-round defensive tackle Maliek Collins and fourth-round defensive end Charles Tapper are the critical pieces because if they can’t both come in and lend critical help along the front four, I fail to see how the defense takes steps forward from a year ago when it finished 17th in total defense, tied for 22nd against the run and 25th in sacks.
This just isn’t how championship teams are built.
Of course, after the last two decades, I know better than to set the bar so high.
I suppose this isn’t how championship teams are built, but it is how poor to mediocre teams are built, so we’ve got that going for us.
No. 7 – On the other hand, the Houston Texans …
I know this is going to surprise the hell out of the Houston Texans fans that are reading this column and find themselves convinced that I never have anything positive to say about the Texans, but …
I really liked what the Texans did in the draft.
As someone who wasn’t a fan of the team’s acquisition of Brock Osweiler earlier in the off-season, I feel compelled to tip my cap to the Houston front office for going out of its way to ensure that its new quarterback has all the pieces needed in the passing game to achieve optimal success.
Although some will nitpick the selection of Will Fuller because the likes of Josh Doctson were still available, I’m a fan of the Notre Dame playmaker, and when you combine his skill with the upside of third round pick Braxton Miller, it’s easy to see the passing game becoming much more than DeAndre Hopkins and not much else.
What the Texans did that the Cowboys didn’t do was stick to their plan. In going four straight picks to open the draft with offense, the Texans went out of their way to upgrade their biggest question marks, likely emerging with at least three offensive starters in year one with their first four picks. Adding West Virginia safety K.J. Dillon and Clemson nose-tackle D.J. Reader made for a six-man class the Texans can feel really good about.
I can’t believe I’m typing this, but nice job, Rick Smith.
No. 8 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
… R.I.P, Blackie Sherrod. We will continue to pay homage to one of the all-time greats each week.
… Scattershooting on the NFL Draft…
Things I liked
A. The Eagles’ draft. Lulz...
B. Maybe this is the Big 12 homer coming out in me, but I thought Cincinnati’s selection of Andrew Billings in the fourth round was one of the steals of the draft.
C. Watch out for the Jaguars, that’s a team that seems to be stockpiling talent.
D. John Elway solving his long-term quarterback issue with steady navigation through the draft.
E. Robert Nkemdiche is going to be a steal for the Cardinals at No. 29 in the first round.
Things I didn’t like
A. Christian Hackenberg to the Jets, of all teams, in the second round. What could go wrong?
B. The Titans once had the No. 1 pick in the draft and could have come away with any player they wanted. Tennessee's immediate reward for being the worst team in the league last year was Michigan State offensive lineman Jack Conklin. I can’t believe the Titans passed on Laremy Tunsil, gasmask or not.
C. People mentioning West Virginia’s Karl Joseph in the same breath with Earl Thomas. Child, please.
D. Eli Apple over Vernon Hargreaves, huh?
E. Washington’s draft. That’s a team that is getting better. Thank goodness for Kirk Cousins being the quarterback there.
… How do you measure how much humiliation the Spurs inflicted on the Thunder on Saturday night? It feels like that series is already o-v-e-r.
… If Kevin Durant is smart, he’ll walk away from the Thunder after this series. That’s just not a franchise taking the needed steps to win championships. Period.
… Vincent Velasquez on Sunday: 6 innings, 2 hits, zero runs, four walks and six strikeouts.
… Vincent Velasquez this season: (4-1 record) 31.1 innings, 18 hits, five earned runs, 10 walks and 39 strikeouts.
… Leicester City is almost at the finish line, but not quite. It seems fitting that this team win this thing at home with Jamie Vardy on the pitch. Next Saturday will be must-see-TV.
… This week’s Premier League weekend… zzzzzzzzzzz.
… The easiest money to be made in sports right now might be betting against FC Dallas when it goes on the road. Man, that team travels like it’s the Washington Generals.
… Diego Valeri FTW!
No. 9 – Game of Thrones - Live blog stream of conscious thoughts...
The following are my stream of conscious thoughts on season-six, episode two of Game of Thrones.
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a. For those keeping at score, it was a good six minutes into the 8pm central hour before the first scene started. Man, HBO sure does seem to cheat us out of our hour each week. It's like a massage therapist that cheats you out of your full 90 minutes by including going to get the glass of water afterwards in your time.
b. I've never liked Bran's scenes, but I'm fascinated to see where his story-line goes.
c. The Night's Watch is a bunch of punks.
d. Oh man, it might take a while, but the High Sparrow has a horrible death coming his way. I just can't decide who gets to cut his head off, Cersei or Jamie or whatever the Mountain has become. Can we just call The Mountain by his new name... Megatron?
e. Tommen crawling back to his mom is the manliest thing he's ever done.
f. Tyrion is out of his damned mind.
g. Early candidate for line of the year: "Don't eat the help."
h. And... Arya... is back in the game.
i. Roose Bolton had that coming to him. Ramsay has his coming as well.
j. What. A. Sonofabitch.
k. Just a reminder... Father's Day is just around the corner.
l. He's baaaaack.
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No. 10 - And finally…
T-minus 15 days until my 40th birthday. I’m almost officially closer to 60 than 20.
