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Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (Projecting Charlie's 2016 class)

The Hateful Eight was horrible. Three hours of rambling dialogue that was supposed to channel something that QT had done in the past, but missed... Big time. By the third chapter I was begging for this thing to die already. I can't imagine that KR and SJ watched that thing when finalized and thought anything other than "that's not what I thought it would turn out like."


Wut?
 
Ketch- If your Dallas do you draft a QB in this years draft or go the FA route? And who would it be?
 
Who I believe Strong lands: A few weeks ago, I was convinced that the Longhorns would shop in the JUCO market once Buechele was on campus, but it seems as if the coaching staff is content, especially with Buechele able to compete in spring workouts and in the offseason.

Ketch, when I first read this, I was, somewhat, in disagreement, as I assumed from the last month of the season onward, that Charlie Strong had to take a JUCO or transfer that could play immediately. Obviously, what options their were seemingly were headed elsewhere, but I couldn't wrap my head around that. Seeing the culmination of the ou/aggy QB swap play out today, pointedly affirms your call, as unbelievable as it may seem. I would guess that there may be other candidates in May, if the Spring doesn't go as they seem to hope it will, but that seems like such a reckless gamble. Best thing that can be said about it is that they "kept their promise" to Buechele. Now they get him on campus this month and can fast track him best they can. But Charlie is only drawing one card to what was a pretty lousy hand at QB last season. Hope Gilbert is really that much better than Watson was, and the new offense is Buechele/Heard friendly, or next year will be another complete downer and we can start all over again with a new coaching staff in 2017. I ain't getting any younger and would like to see something go right over there PDQ.
 
And you and Jason have both ducked my question about the two year foreign language requirement at Texas for entering freshmen. I checked and it is zero years at LSU and only one year at Alabama. Seems Big Ten and Pac 12 schools are similar to Texas, but I know ou has a lower requirement and would assume some of the others are lower, as well.

Do you think, other than the obvious loss of Lumpkin last year, that this is hurting us with some of these highly rated prospects?
 
c. It took a historic comeback from TCU and a West Virginia nail-biter over a 6-7 team for the Big 12 to save itself from an absolute disaster of a bowl season, thus exposing the conference for what it was… a collection of pretty good and pretty average teams.
In all fairness, the Big XII was an underdog in 6 of their 7 matchups (83%). No other conference was an underdog in more than half of their matchups, and the SEC was favored in 70% of their games. In fact, the Big XII had more unfavorable matchups (6 out of 7 games) than the SEC & Pac12 combined (5 out of 20 games). They also played 5 ranked opponents, which was the highest percentage of games played against ranked teams. The Pac12, in contrast, only played 2. The Big XII actually finished with as many wins against ranked opponents as the ACC & Pac12 combined, while trailing the SEC and Big Ten by just 1 win against ranked opponents, despite playing 3 fewer games. They also were the only conference that did not play a non-Power 5 team. And, not only did they only play P5 programs, but they also played the toughest schedule, as their opponents had the highest winning percentage. Contrast that to the Pac12, which played 4 mid-majors, the ACC 3, and the Big Ten & SEC 1 apiece.......and even with that slate of inflated record mid-majors, their opponents had a worse winning percentage than the Big XII's. Yet, in spite of that, the Big XII had the most wins as an underdog this bowl season, and finished 3-4 overall, barely off the pace of the ACC (4-5) and Big Ten (5-5).

Looking at it objectively, it's hard for any conference to puff their chest out this bowl season. The Big Ten had 3 Top 15 teams blown out in epic fashion (the most of any conference). The ACC had 4 of their teams blown out, and FSU was laid to waste by a mid-major. The Pac-12 got by playing 4 mid-majors and just 2 ranked opponents, while the ACC played 3 mid-majors, and saw their #2, 3, 4, and 5 teams beaten (most in embarrassing fashion). And, the ACC & Pac12 tied for the most upset losses. The SEC had a good overall record, but they had to stack the deck to ensure they were favorites in 70% of their games. And, their opponents had the worst winning percentage.........and that included Memphis' "trumped up on cup cakes" 9-3 record. They played 5 teams that had a record of 6-6 or 7-5. And in each one of those games, the SEC team had a 1 to 2 win advantage over their opponent. Just 4 of the SEC's 10 opponents were 4 P5 teams that entered bowl season with 8 or more wins (compared to 5 of 7 for the Big XII). Maybe next year the Big XII will get to play half their games against .500 teams like the SEC, or a slate that includes New Mexico, Air Force, Southern Miss, and BYU (minus their star QB) like the Pac12. And, hopefully they won't suffer the indignity of seeing their top 2 teams (#3 Michigan State and #5 Iowa) destroyed by 38 and 29 points respectively like the Big Ten.
 
Ketch, when I first read this, I was, somewhat, in disagreement, as I assumed from the last month of the season onward, that Charlie Strong had to take a JUCO or transfer that could play immediately. Obviously, what options their were seemingly were headed elsewhere, but I couldn't wrap my head around that. Seeing the culmination of the ou/aggy QB swap play out today, pointedly affirms your call, as unbelievable as it may seem. I would guess that there may be other candidates in May, if the Spring doesn't go as they seem to hope it will, but that seems like such a reckless gamble. Best thing that can be said about it is that they "kept their promise" to Buechele. Now they get him on campus this month and can fast track him best they can. But Charlie is only drawing one card to what was a pretty lousy hand at QB last season. Hope Gilbert is really that much better than Watson was, and the new offense is Buechele/Heard friendly, or next year will be another complete downer and we can start all over again with a new coaching staff in 2017. I ain't getting any younger and would like to see something go right over there PDQ.
Strong is holding, not hitting, while sitting on 14.
 
And you and Jason have both ducked my question about the two year foreign language requirement at Texas for entering freshmen. I checked and it is zero years at LSU and only one year at Alabama. Seems Big Ten and Pac 12 schools are similar to Texas, but I know ou has a lower requirement and would assume some of the others are lower, as well.

Do you think, other than the obvious loss of Lumpkin last year, that this is hurting us with some of these highly rated prospects?
not historically, no.
 
In all fairness, the Big XII was an underdog in 6 of their 7 matchups (83%). No other conference was an underdog in more than half of their matchups, and the SEC was favored in 70% of their games. In fact, the Big XII had more unfavorable matchups (6 out of 7 games) than the SEC & Pac12 combined (5 out of 20 games). They also played 5 ranked opponents, which was the highest percentage of games played against ranked teams. The Pac12, in contrast, only played 2. The Big XII actually finished with as many wins against ranked opponents as the ACC & Pac12 combined, while trailing the SEC and Big Ten by just 1 win against ranked opponents, despite playing 3 fewer games. They also were the only conference that did not play a non-Power 5 team. And, not only did they only play P5 programs, but they also played the toughest schedule, as their opponents had the highest winning percentage. Contrast that to the Pac12, which played 4 mid-majors, the ACC 3, and the Big Ten & SEC 1 apiece.......and even with that slate of inflated record mid-majors, their opponents had a worse winning percentage than the Big XII's. Yet, in spite of that, the Big XII had the most wins as an underdog this bowl season, and finished 3-4 overall, barely off the pace of the ACC (4-5) and Big Ten (5-5).

Looking at it objectively, it's hard for any conference to puff their chest out this bowl season. The Big Ten had 3 Top 15 teams blown out in epic fashion (the most of any conference). The ACC had 4 of their teams blown out, and FSU was laid to waste by a mid-major. The Pac-12 got by playing 4 mid-majors and just 2 ranked opponents, while the ACC played 3 mid-majors, and saw their #2, 3, 4, and 5 teams beaten (most in embarrassing fashion). And, the ACC & Pac12 tied for the most upset losses. The SEC had a good overall record, but they had to stack the deck to ensure they were favorites in 70% of their games. And, their opponents had the worst winning percentage.........and that included Memphis' "trumped up on cup cakes" 9-3 record. They played 5 teams that had a record of 6-6 or 7-5. And in each one of those games, the SEC team had a 1 to 2 win advantage over their opponent. Just 4 of the SEC's 10 opponents were 4 P5 teams that entered bowl season with 8 or more wins (compared to 5 of 7 for the Big XII). Maybe next year the Big XII will get to play half their games against .500 teams like the SEC, or a slate that includes New Mexico, Air Force, Southern Miss, and BYU (minus their star QB) like the Pac12. And, hopefully they won't suffer the indignity of seeing their top 2 teams (#3 Michigan State and #5 Iowa) destroyed by 38 and 29 points respectively like the Big Ten.


Always appreciate your well thought out analysis instead of just spewing out BS with no substance to back it up. The numbers don't lie . Thanks
 
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Always appreciate your well thought out analysis instead of just spewing out BS with no substance to back it up. The numbers don't lie . Thanks
They can mislead on occasion.
 
They can mislead on occasion.

It was a helluva an analysis it just didn't support your opinion. The SEC is the clear #1 conference but you could put the next 4 in a hat and pull one out and make an argument for it being next . After the SEC there is no clear cut #2, #3,#4, #5. The sad part is that the conference over the last 5 years has been there for the taking and Texas hasn't taken advantage of this. Hopefully Sterlin can pull a rabbit out of the hat and this team can win 8 plus games next year then contend for the conference championship in 17.
 
It was a helluva an analysis it just didn't support your opinion.
a. I wasn't speaking of any specific point made by IM or his commentary, although I think the favorite/underdog piece of the equation is an interesting layer of the convo.

For instance, Ole Miss was a -7.5 favorite vs. Oklahoma State, but I don't know how you can suggest this was an unfair match-up. The Cowboys were a 10-2 team that finished second in the Big 12 and it played a 10-2 team from the SEC West.

It's the Big 12 and Oklahoma State's fault that it didn't hold up its end of the bargain. Nothing unfairly happened in the grouping of these two teams. The Big 12 had a lack of options to close the gap of the spread.

My point was that until TCU roared back and West Virginia beat a now sub-500 team, it looked pretty f;ing bleak for the Big 12.

The sad part is that the conference over the last 5 years has been there for the taking and Texas hasn't taken advantage of this. Hopefully Sterlin can pull a rabbit out of the hat and this team can win 8 plus games next year then contend for the conference championship in 17.

That should tell you how far apart Texas is from the nationally elite right now.
 
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I think Humphry is a WR in this offense. Also Aucoin could easily end up being a LT project.

I agree on Aucoin. He is reportedly already at 255. If we get Shackleford, this could be a very well rounded OL haul.
Aucoin and DeLance as tackles. Okafor and Imade at guard and Shack at center. If we can get Irvin Smith (Aucoin's teammate and current ag commitment) he would be the TE in this class and a very good one.
 
Come on Geoff no love for Mad Max: Fury Road? That movie was a better overall movie than either the Force Awakens or Creed.
 
a. I wasn't speaking of any specific point made by IM or his commentary, although I think the favorite/underdog piece of the equation is an interesting layer of the convo.

For instance, Ole Miss was a -7.5 favorite vs. Oklahoma State, but I don't know how you can suggest this was an unfair match-up. The Cowboys were a 10-2 team that finished second in the Big 12 and it played a 10-2 team from the SEC West.

It's the Big 12 and Oklahoma State's fault that it didn't hold up its end of the bargain. Nothing unfairly happened in the grouping of these two teams. The Big 12 had a lack of options to close the gap of the spread.

My point was that until TCU roared back and West Virginia beat a now sub-500 team, it looked pretty f;ing bleak for the Big 12.



That should tell you how far apart Texas is from the nationally elite right now.

I don't want to talk about it because it depresses me to much.
 
Come on Geoff no love for Mad Max: Fury Road? That movie was a better overall movie than either the Force Awakens or Creed.
a. I've given it lots of love.
b. I disagree that it was better than FA or Creed.
 
a. I've given it lots of love.
b. I disagree that it was better than FA or Creed.
With 30 days to go until National Signing Day, the weekend’s results with prospects at the top of the Charlie Strong wish list were a reminder that the jury is still out on the final results for the 2016 Texas recruiting class - and that this particular roller-coaster ride of emotions will have its share of loopty-loops before all 30 days expire.

On one hand, the Longhorns landed their No.1 offensive line target not named Gregory LIttle, but on the other, they seemingly lost the No.1 running back target they'd thirsted after for the last 21-plus months.

The responsibility I’ve given myself in the lede of this week’s column is to make an effort to make sense of it all… position-by-position. Consider it your guide to the final four weeks and change of the 2016 recruiting year.

Quarterbacks

Needs: One or two

Crisis Level: High

Commitments: (1) Shane Buechele (Arlington Lamar)

Remaining targets: None

This is a successful group if… Texas has the player that it wants and the player at the position that it coveted more than any other, so the moment that Buechele enrolls for classes in January, it’ll have done the major lifting needed at this position in the class. We can debate the virtues (or lack thereof) of a JUCO addition, but one of the most important tasks in this class was finding a player at the quarterback position that the program can potentially build around. Everyone in the program believes that Buechele is that kind of player. Major mission accomplished.

This group is a failure in February if… It’s pretty much an impossibility, as the presence of Buechele on campus assures everyone of that.

Who I believe Strong lands: A few weeks ago, I was convinced that the Longhorns would shop in the JUCO market once Buechele was on campus, but it seems as if the coaching staff is content, especially with Buechele able to compete in spring workouts and in the offseason.

Running Backs

Needs: One or two

Crisis Level: Relatively low

Commitments: None

Remaining targets: Kyle Porter (Katy) and possibly Darius Anderson (George Ranch)

This is a successful group if… This was a position that needed numbers a year ago, but this year is about attempting to find a home-run hitter who can give the running game a change-of-pace lightning back to go along with its one-two hammer combo of D’onta Foreman and Chris Warren. If it can’t find a dynamic home-run hitter, adding a quality all-around back that improves the talent level of the group is something that four-star talents Porter and Anderson would both accomplish. Almost as soon as Devwah Whaley committed to Arkansas on Saturday, speculation started to grow that he could flip commitments yet again if he makes an official visit to Austin on January 16th. Whatever. All that matters is adding at least one high-level prospect at this point.

This group is a failure if… Whaley sticks with the Pigs, Porter heads elsewhere and the coaching staff never so much as gives Anderson another look, which would potentially leave Texas empty-handed.

Who I believe Strong lands: He’s been virtually invisible throughout the recruiting process, but Porter seems like the best bet at this point, as he’s always had the Longhorns near the top of his list - and now has a chance to potentially be the only running back in this class, which definitely has its value. Oregon and Arkansas are other schools that have been at the top of his list, but both already have commitments from four-star running backs, which might make Wisconsin (the school he’s expected to visit last) the primary competition for the Longhorns.

Wide Receivers

Needs: One or two

Crisis Level: Low

Commitments: (3) Davion Curtis (Temple), Collin Johnson (San Jose, Ca.) and Reggie Hemphill-Mapps (Manvel)

Remaining targets: None

This is a successful group if… Numbers at this position aren’t an issue at all with nine players on the depth chart before attrition kicks in in the off-season, but the trio of Curtis and especially Johnson give this group the desired elements it needs.

This group is a failure if… Not really possible, as Texas has more than addressed its needs. A guy like Devin Duvernay would have been nice, but Curtis provides many of the same qualities, so the needs have been filled.

Who I believe Strong lands: What you see is what you get… Curtis, Johnson and Hemphill-Mapps.

Tight Ends

Needs: Two or three

Crisis Level: Medium

Commitments: (1) Peyton Aucoin (New Orleans, La)

Remaining targets: Lil’Jordan Humphrey (SL Carroll), Irv Smith (New Orleans, La) and Jamal Pettigrew (New Orleans, La.)

This is a successful group if… This has a chance to be perhaps the best tight ends class the Longhorns have signed in a decade if Humphrey and Smith join the Texas recruiting class. Of course, Humphrey is an H-back that could emerge as a player on either side of the ball because of his frame and athleticism, but if Smith flips from A&M because he can see the Kevin Sumlin ship sinking, you’d have to feel good about the overall quality from a potential three-man group.

This group is a failure if… Landing Aucoin isn’t enough, unless you believe that the tight end position’s value inside the new Texas offense is low enough that added numbers simply aren’t required. Personally, I’m of the opinion that this position still needs some quality added to the cupboard.

Who I believe Strong lands: Aucoin, Humphrey and Smith

Offensive line

Needs: Four or five

Crisis Level: High

Commitments: (3) Jean Delance (North Mesquite), Tope Imade (Arlington Lamar) and Denzel Okafor (Lewisville)

Remaining targets: Zack Shackleford (Belton), J.P. Urquidez (Copperas Cove) and possibly Patrick Hudson (Sillsbee)

This is a successful group if… With the commitment of Delance on Saturday, the Longhorns have four-star building blocks at tackle (Delance) and at guard (Okafor), along with a versatile high three-star prospect (Imade) that will upgrade the depth along the offensive line the moment all are on campus. The only thing missing is another quality body, particularly one that can play center, but the makings of a quality line class are already in place.

This group is a failure if… The Longhorns survived that dance, as losing Delance to Michigan would have been a huge blow to a group screaming for a high-end tackle prospect.

Who I believe Strong lands: Shackleford is likely going to be the final piece of the puzzle, which would give the Longhorns a four-man class of Delance, Imade, Okafor and Shackleford.

Defensive tackles

Needs: As many as Texas can sign

Crisis Level: High

Commitments: (1) Gerald Wilbon (Destrehan, La.)

Remaining targets: D'andre Christmas-Giles (New Orleans, La), Jordan Elliott (Houston Westside), Stephon Taylor (New Orleans, La.), Marcell Southall (Duncanville), Ross Blacklock (Sugar Land Elkins), Chris Daniels (Duncanville) and Michael Williams (Fort Worth All Saints)

This is a successful group if… The Longhorns need at least two of the remaining targets, but Christmas-Giles is probably the most important prospect left on the board for the Longhorns because he’s the only name on the list above that ranks as one of the nation’s Top 30 defensive tackles in the current Rivals rankings. As the nation’s No.6 defensive tackle, he’d give this class the potential impact performer that the 2016 defense so desperately needs. As long as the Longhorns come away with a group of three from the names above, they’ll have a solid group, but you can’t call this group a home run without at least one name on the list that registers as a top national prospect, so landing DCG feels pretty critical.

This group is a failure if… It fails to land DCG or any or the prospects from the Lone Star State. In one of the state’s top years for talent at the position in the last decade, eight of the nation’s top 42 defensive tackles reside from Texas. You can’t completely swing and miss at the entire state in a strong year.

Who I believe Strong lands: The thing that scares you about the recruitment of DCG is that you can make a case that the Longhorns are in a very strong position to land him, but the staff will likely have to survive official visits to LSU, Mississippi and South Carolina if it wants to land him and that just feels like a tough road to navigate from my perspective. Honestly, outside of DCG, any number of different combinations of prospects could make up the final pieces of the defensive tackle group, but I’ll go with another Louisiana product (Taylor) and a Texas kid (Elliott).

Defensive Ends

Needs: As many as Texas can sign

Crisis Level: High

Commitments: (2) Andrew Fitzgerald (Flower Mound Marcos) and Malcolm Roach (Baton Rouge, La)

Remaining targets: Mark Jackson (Cibolo Steele), Erick Fowler (Manor) and Kelvin Lucky (Elmore, Alabama),

This is a successful group if… Fowler and Jackson flip from LSU and Texas A&M, respectively. Texas needs a serious infusion of talent at this position for both the immediate/long-term future and I’m not sure that the Longhorns have recruited well enough yet at the position, even if I fully believe that Fitzgerald and Roach are quality, under-the-radar pieces of the puzzle. The No.27 strong-side defensive end and the No.40 weak-side defensive end just isn’t good enough. The good news is that adding a four-star pass rusher like Jackson and/or Fowler would help considerably.

This group is a failure if… It doesn’t add Jackson or Fowler. Texas can’t come up empty on the the four four-star defensive ends (not even counting Fowler, who is officially a linebacker with extreme pass-rush upside) that are available inside state borders when the position is such a critical need.

Who I believe Strong lands: Jackson seems to be trending heavily to Texas, but I’m not sure anyone else at the position is, which would leave them with three. Fowler would put this group over the top.

Linebackers

Needs: One or two

Crisis Level: Low

Commitments: (1) Demarco Boyd (Gilmer)

Remaining targets: Dontavious Jackson (Aldine Elsik) and Jeffrey McCulloch (Aldine Davis)

This is a successful group if… Landing either Jackson or McCulloch would do the trick, but if Texas lands both, the position will be loaded with terrific young talent for years to come when you consider what exists from the 2015 class at the position.

This group is a failure if… It would represent a major disappointment if Texas fails to land both Jackson and McCulloch.

Who I believe Strong lands: McCulloch is the most important prospect left on the board at this position because of his versatility and raw talent level and I think he’ll become a Longhorn before it’s all said and done, but I’m not nearly as confident with Jackson at this point. For now, let’s project the Longhorns with a very strong two-man class of McCulloch and Boyd.

Defensive Backs

Needs: Two or three

Crisis Level: Low

Commitments: (1) Obi Eboh (Southlake Carroll)

Remaining targets: Brandon Jones (Nacogdoches), Deontay Anderson (Manvel), Eric Cuffee (Waco) and Chris Brown (Aldine Elsik)

This is a successful group if… Numbers aren’t critical because of last year’s haul, but in a year when there are three special safety prospects, Texas has to land at least one.

This group is a failure if… It’s pretty simple… Strong has to land one of the two big safety prospects on the board. Failing to do that would be a major disappointment.

Who I believe Strong lands: The fire in College Station is going to deliver Jones to Strong and Co., but I’m not sure the Longhorns can swing landing both Jones and Anderson. Let’s call it a three-man defensive backs class when the dust settles comprised of Jones, Cuffie and Eboh.

If I’m truly Nostraketchus...

If all goes as I’ve projected, it means that the Longhorns will add another 10 prospects to the current commitment haul, which would leave them with 23 members in this class, easily within the 85-man number by the time August rolls around.

Of those 10 guys I’ve projected the Longhorns to land, four (Kyle Porter, Mark Jackson, Jeffrey McCulloch and Brandon Jones) are currently four-star prospects, which would give Texas nine four-star and 14 three-star prospects in this year’s class.

Based on last year’s Rivals.com team rankings, that would leave Texas with a recruiting class that likely ranks somewhere between 15-18 in the final national team rankings.

No. 2 – Putting it all on the line …

It’s been much-discussed in the last month or so, but the value of this year’s class will likely be determined by the results of a major recruiting weekend that begins on January 15th.

Take a look at the current roll-call for that weekend:

Commitments: (9) WR Davion Curtis, WR Reggie Hemphill-Mapps, OL Jean Delance, OL Tope Imade, OL Denzel Okafor, DT Gerald Wilbon, DE Malcolm Roach, DE Andrew Fitzgerald, CB Obi Eboh

Key remaining targets: (7) TE/Ath Lil’Jordan Humphrey, OL Zach Shackelford, DE Eric Fowler, DE Mark Jackson, LB Jeffrey McCulloch, DB Brandon Jones and DB Deontay Anderson

The Maybes:RB Devwah Whaley and DT Chris Daniels

Don’t be surprised if the visit list grows over the course of the next two weeks, especially as the coaches adjust to Whaley’s commitment to Arkansas and the possibility that Christmas-Giles signs somewhere in the SEC. Keep an eye on the remaining running backs and defensive tackles.

No. 3 – Final Thoughts from Orlando …

Here’s a look at some final thoughts after a week of practices and an extremely hard-to-watch game on Saturday afternoon.

Stock up

Rashan Gary: Worth whatever SEC teams are currently offering him and more. The best prospect in the nation.

Tyrie Cleveland: I’ve got him ranked as the top pure wide receiver prospect in the state, but someone in the current top 10 is going to have to fall out because Cleveland has forced himself into that kind of territory. No player helped his stock more on the national level than Cleveland, who might just finish in the national top 50.

Ed Oliver: My goodness, it’s too bad Texas could never create a dent in his recruitment because he’s a potential difference-maker in college. I’m leaning towards ranking him No.3 in the final LSR rankings.

Stock Holding

Gregory Little: Arrived in Orlando as the best prospect in Texas and left with an absolute lock on that honor.

Jean Delance: The Texas commit had an up-and-down week of practice, but he showed enough high-upside flash to remain a state Top 15 prospect in my mind. He’s going to need a couple of years of development, but he has a chance to be a high-end, multi-year starter.

Jeffrey McCulloch: He’s the state’s top pure linebacker prospect and looked exactly the part all week, as Mike Farrell gave him his Hard Hat Award, which goes to the top hitter from the entire week.

Stock Down

Kendell Jones: Looks like a million bucks, but makes plays like a kid on food stamps.

Devin Duvernay: Flashes at times like a million bucks, but rarely flashed enough. For a guy with his talent, he didn’t stand out enough against the nation’s top prospects.

Patrick Hudson: Was limited throughout the week, but never really stood out among his peers when he was on the field.

No. 4 – The brutal Big 12 schedule begins…

The football being played in the Big 12 might leave a little (or lot) to be desired, but as a basketball conference, the 2016 year figures to be as strong from top to bottom as any season in the history of the conference.

Yes, trips to Lawrence, Norman and Ames will make for a rugged trio of road games on everyone’s slate, but it’s trips to Waco, Manhattan and Stillwater that make for a never-ending run of complicated games.

Oh, and let’s not forget about a trip to Lubbock, which suddenly feels very tricky - a truth that Shaka Smart and the Longhorns learned the hard way this weekend in a 82-74 loss.

There just aren’t any layups on the road in the Big 12 and if the Longhorns don’t start playing a better brand of basketball in the aftermath of of the Cam Ridley injury, this season is going to swallow the Longhorns up. Make no mistake about it, the strength of the Big 12 means that the Longhorns can hang around .500 in conference play and still have a chance to make the NCAA Tournament, especially if its RPI hangs around in the 28-30 range, as it currently stands.

The general rule of thumb for a team like the Longhorns is that for every home game you lose, somewhere along the way you have to replace it with a road win and those are going to be difficult to snatch this season, as evidenced by the fact that winning against Tech is far from a gimme.

If you’re looking for some good news, a home game against Kansas State on Tuesday and a trip to Fort Worth on Saturday will give this team a chance to get its conference legs under control.

However, if the Longhorns can’t win in Fort Worth, I’m not sure where it can win on the road in the Big 12.

No. 5 – On the other side of the coin ...

While Shaka’s boys are struggling to redefine their identity in the aftermath of a major front-court loss, Karen Aston’s team is rolling in quite a nice groove after moving its Big 12 record to 2-0 after drubbing Texas Tech over the weekend.

With games against Oklahoma State and Iowa State looming this week, Texas will face two of the top five teams in the league, which will give the team a chance to open up a little bit of separation on the pack with a pair of wins.

If you haven’t seen this team play yet this season, just know that this isn’t a team full of stars (Imani Boyette is the team’s leading scorer and ranks 13th in the Big 12), but it does almost everything well as a team.

Here’s a list of the team stats that the Longhorns rank among the top three in the Big 12: Scoring defense (2nd), scoring margin (2nd), free throw percentage (3rd), field goal percentage (2nd), field goal percentage defense (3rd), three-point field goal defense (third), offensive rebounding (third), defensive rebounding (second), rebounding margin (2nd) and turnover margin (third).

If there’s a couple of areas of concern, they're on the offensive side of the ball, where the team ranks eighth in three-point shots made per game and ninth in turnover-to-assist ratio.

No. 6 – Buy or sell …

(As always, these are questions submitted by Orangebloods subscribers)

BUY or SELL: The 2015 recruiting class will have no less than 7 drafted into the NFL when it's all said and done?

(Buy) John Burt, Davante Davis, Holton Hill, Malik Jefferson, Patrick Vahe, Chris Warren and Connor Williams make up seven by themselves.

BUY or SELL: We don't compete for a national championship until our program is in a position to red shirt the majority of any given recruiting class?

(Buy) Just for the record, I think it is absolutely absurd that Texas fans speak in terms of national championships at this stage of the program, which features six straight seasons of complete unimportance on the national level.

BUY or SELL: At least 1 of the Texas (scholarship) QBs in Spring Practices 2016 will have transitioned full-time to another position by the beginning of the 2016 season?

(Buy) At some point, I expect Kai Locksley to move to wide receiver.

BUY or SELL: Texas ends the 2016 recruiting cycle with a higher (Rivals) ranked class than Texas A&M?

(Sell) It’ll be very close (like within three spots of each other), but A&M is already in the top 20 and has eight four-star commitments, so I give them the edge.

BUY or SELL: Tom Herman have a better class than Charlie Strong on NSD?

(Sell) Houston probably won’t finish with a top 25 class.

BUY or SELL: Herman’s 2015 Houston beats Strongs 2014 Texas with less talent. If so, why? Offense, coaching, etc?? Both inherited a mess, but Texas clearly has more talent.

(Buy) Better coaching and significantly better quarterback play.

BUY or SELL: With the addition of Delance and the other O linemen, the O line becomes a plus unit in 2016; and a great unit in 2017?

(Sell) I don’t know that I expect this current class of linemen to make a major first-year impact. It’s definitely too early to start using the word “great” in conjunction with 2017.

BUY or SELL: Charlie Strong is convinced he needs to open is circle of trust in order to win at an elite level and maximizes his resources increasing Recruiting Staff, Coaches, Technology etc…?

(Sell) This is the area that Mack and Charlie have most in common. This is mostly a mom and pop organization.

BUY or SELL: Longhorns win 8 games next season and Charlie Strong comes back as HC in 2017?

(Sell) I don’t see eight wins at this point. Perhaps I’ll eventually buy eight, but that’s giving a lot of benefit of the doubt and I’m not ready to give a 5-7 team that doesn’t have answers at quarterback or up-front on defense that much benefit of the doubt.

BUY or SELL: There will be a surprise or mystery recruit/commitment before signing day?

(Buy) The Longhorns will take a flyer on a three-star committed to someone else that’s not even really on the horizon at this point.

No. 7 – Your 2015 AFC South Division Champions… the Houston Texans

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I know you Houston Texans fans feel like I’m constantly jilting your team, but consider me seriously impressed that your team was able to overcome an absolute disaster at quarterback to win nine games and a division title this season.

If I had done nothing but list the names of the starting quarterback for each game this season, there’s no way you’d guess success was waiting on the other end of it. Seriously, take a look at this 16-game roll-call:

Brian Hoyer
Ryan Mallett
Ryan Mallett
Ryan Mallett (benched)
Ryan Mallett (injured and benched)
Brian Hoyer
Brian Hoyer’
Brian Hoyer
Brian Hoyer (injured)
T.J. Yates
Brian Hoyer
Brian Hoyer
Brian Hoyer
T.J. Yates (injured)
Brandon Weeden
Brian Hoyer

I mean… damn. How is that possible? Yes, the division was garbage, but at some point you have to give a definite nod to the rest of the coaching staff and players that refused to let that hot mess get in its way completely.

If you take Cam Newton out of the equation, you can make a case that Deandre Hopkins’ 111 catches for 1,521 yards and 11 touchdowns are MVP worthy. Can you imagine what his numbers might have looked like with stability and increased talent at quarterback?

Well done, Texans, well done.

No. 8 – Brad Sham channels his inner Harry Doyle ...

I’ve listened to Brad Sham call Dallas Cowboys games for most of my life, but I can without say with absolutely certainty that I have never heard him sound like an Orangebloods.com poster until Sunday’s season-finale against Washington.

While traveling back from H-town during the first half of Sunday’s game, I found myself wondering if Sham was drinking vodka in the booth and if he was, I can’t say I blame him, as the 2015 season reached such a sucking point by week 17 that I found myself cheering the butt-kicking the Cowboys received because it clinched a top five pick in the 2016 NFL draft, the only saving grace for this wretched campaign.

However, Sham wasn’t nearly as excited about the Cowboys delivering the goods in the clutch like I was, as he spent the entire first 30 minutes of the game delivering the most condescending and sarcastic live-call of his entire career. When Washington went up 21-0 in the first quarter, Sham pulled zero punches.

“It’s pathetic,” Sham said of the effort by the Cowboys.

Throughout the game, it was just non-stop angry commentary, as he snarkily remarked on every layer of the performance to such a degree that at times it seemed like color commentator Babe Laufenberg was constantly trying to contain his own laughter.

I’m paraphrasing here, but at one point late in the second quarter when a Washington player was injured and waiting for the cart to take him off the field, he remarked, “Only in Dallas will you see the crowd do The Wave when a player is injured on the ground.”

O-u-c-h.

Among the other bombs he dropped during the game…





I can’t imagine that Jerry Jones will love the report he’ll likely receive about his play-by-play man’s discontent with the blue and silver product, but I thought Sham channeled his audience’s thoughts on the entire production.

Yes, Brad, it was pathetic.

No. 9 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …

… Scattershooting on week 17 in the NFL

a. I can’t imagine what must be going through the minds of Jets fans right now. If Jason Garrett left the Cowboys and knocked them out of the playoffs in week 17 with another team the very next season, I’d be looking for things to break.

b. Watch out, AFC, you’ve opened the door for the Steelers.

c. Damn, Seattle. Message delivered.

d. Damn, Green Bay. Other kind of message delivered.

e. The list of playoff teams that Kirk Cousins has defeated this season: ….

f. I’m guessing Rex Ryan got some great feet from his ol’ lady on Sunday night.

g. Johnny Manziel needs to be in rehab… again.

h. New England looks cooked. Absolutely cooked. The 2015 Tom Brady Revenge Tour is going to end with nothing but disappointment when this season is over. The team that remains in January is a far cry from the one that dominated the league the first half of the season.

i. With the fourth pick of the 2016 NFL Draft… the Dallas Cowboys select Ole Miss defensive lineman Robert Nkemdiche. There’s no way that Jerry drafts a quarterback in that spot.

… Scattershooting on the bowl games from the weekend

a. The semi-finals went pretty much exactly like I thought they would, which leaves us with Alabama/Clemson for the national title and I think the Tide chokes out the Tigers over the course of four quarters. Call it Alabama 31 Clemson 20.

b. Just for the record, I called that Houston upset win over Florida State a week ago. Of course, I also called for a UNC win over Baylor… oops.

c. It took a historic comeback from TCU and a West Virginia nail-biter over a 6-7 team for the Big 12 to save itself from an absolute disaster of a bowl season, thus exposing the conference for what it was… a collection of pretty good and pretty average teams.

d. Ohio State will be wondering “what-if” all off-season.

e. Christian McCaffery might have deserved the Heisman.

… Scattershooting on the weekend in the English Premier League

a. Dele Alli is really, really good. Maybe the most underrated player in the entire EPL?

b. Ummm… hello, Chelsea. That win over Crystal Palace has my attention. Any time Diego Costa picks up an assist, we all need to do a double-look.

c. Buy, Klopp, buy! Go get a goalie, a defender, a creator in the mid-field and a striker. BUY!

d. No, I’m not ready to discuss that mess at West Ham from the weekend and I don’t care that it has been two days.

e. Wayne Rooney scored and Romelu Lukaku, Odion Ighalo and Jamie Vardy did not. What year is it, again?

No. 10 – 55 Days Until Oscar Night ...

100-Words or Less Movie Review: The Hateful Eight (B-)

For better or worse, it’s pretty much everything you’d expect from a Tarantino Western flick. There’s a lot to like about near three-hour saga, which is broken up into five chapters - some of the dialogue is quite memorable, Samuel L. Jackson and Jennifer Jason Leigh were divine and there are highlights throughout… yet… I came away just liking the movie instead of loving it. Maybe I need a second watch or maybe it’s pales in comparison to a movie like Inglorious Basterds, I’m not really sure, but I know it left me feeling slightly empty and semi-disappointed.

My Current Oscars Leaderboard

Best Picture (based on movies I have actually seen)

1. Spotlight
2. Room
3. Sicario
4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
5. Creed

Best Actor (based on the movies I have actually seen)

1. Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
2. Michael B. Jordan (Creed)
3. Matt Damon (The Martian)
4. Samuel L. Jackson (The Hateful Eight)
5. John Boyega (Star Wars: The Force Awakens)

Best Actress (based on the movies I have actually seen)

1. Brie Larson (Room)
2. Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)
3. Daisy Ridley (Star Wars: The Force Awakens)
4. Emily Blount (Sicario)
5. Charlize Theron (Mad Max: Fury Road)

Best Supporting Actor (based on the movies I have actually seen)

1. Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
2. Jacob Tremblay (Room)
3. Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)
4. Benicio del Toro (Sicario)
5. Sly Stallone (Creed)

Best Supporting Actress (based on the movies I have actually seen)

1. Joan Allen (Room)
2. Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)
3. Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina)
4. Rachel McAdams (Spotlight)
5. Tessa Thompson (Creed)

Best Director

1. Lenny Abrahamson (Room)
2. J.J. Abrams (Star Wars: The Force Awakens)
3. Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)
4. George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
5. Ridley Scott (The Martian)[/B]
 
Thanks for giving some love to the Texans

You are redeemed

One question on another frequent topic:
Why are people so damn sure that Herman would jump at the chance to go to Texas?
He is telling recruits that he is committed to building Houston for a few more years into the future.

If/when he does leave, I desperately hope he comes to UT. If he doesn't come to UT, I'm just praying he doesn't go to A&M
 
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