ADVERTISEMENT

Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Reality Checks)

B/S Arch puts up numbers in 2025 similar to Colt’s 2009 numbers in passing and rushing except a lower completion % but more rushing TDs and that’s good enough to be in SEC title game

“(Sell) He's going to be better than Colt was in 2009. You need be thinking more like 2008. Colt was awful in big games and basically posted 2024 Ewers numbers as a passer as a senior. It was a massive regression from 2008.”


@Ketchum

It’s so very strange to me for you to say the above like it’s some different version of Colt from 2008 to 2009.

And I think it comes down to a simpy flawed analysis of what you think is important.

Just because Colts numbers went down from 08 to 09 does not strictly mean he personally was playing worse in 09 than he was in 08. It does mean the team was though. A QB can have a low QBR (and does quite frequently) because of mistakes made by other players. No seperation, nad blocking, dropped passes, bad play calls, missed assignments, bad routes, etc.

You look at a QBR as some unique measurement of a QBs performance as though that can be measured without taking into account every other offensive players performance on every play. In 2009, that offense was the least talented from a top 11 as any I have seen at Texas, outside of Colt and Jordan. Just comparing it to 08 should have pointed you down that path. Losing quan alone was probably 30 points of QBR and 10% completion percentage. Probably more. No Chris O also hurts as the running game sucked also (which again is 30 points of QBR right off the top, probably more).

So I just don’t understand how you look at 2008 and 2009 and say Colt was a shell of himself because his rating went down x points.

That seems so terribly uninformed or basic. It simply isn’t true, and anybody that watches football should know better.

Sorry if QBR isn’t some magical number that decides who’s playing well, especially when discussing the play at the very end of the line, the Qb.
 
“(Sell) He's going to be better than Colt was in 2009. You need be thinking more like 2008. Colt was awful in big games and basically posted 2024 Ewers numbers as a passer as a senior. It was a massive regression from 2008.”


@Ketchum

It’s so very strange to me for you to say the above like it’s some different version of Colt from 2008 to 2009.

And I think it comes down to a simpy flawed analysis of what you think is important.

Just because Colts numbers went down from 08 to 09 does not strictly mean he personally was playing worse in 09 than he was in 08. It does mean the team was though. A QB can have a low QBR (and does quite frequently) because of mistakes made by other players. No seperation, nad blocking, dropped passes, bad play calls, missed assignments, bad routes, etc.

You look at a QBR as some unique measurement of a QBs performance as though that can be measured without taking into account every other offensive players performance on every play. In 2009, that offense was the least talented from a top 11 as any I have seen at Texas, outside of Colt and Jordan. Just comparing it to 08 should have pointed you down that path. Losing quan alone was probably 30 points of QBR and 10% completion percentage. Probably more. No Chris O also hurts as the running game sucked also (which again is 30 points of QBR right off the top, probably more).

So I just don’t understand how you look at 2008 and 2009 and say Colt was a shell of himself because his rating went down x points.

That seems so terribly uninformed or basic. It simply isn’t true, and anybody that watches football should know better.

Sorry if QBR isn’t some magical number that decides who’s playing well, especially when discussing the play at the very end of the line, the Qb.

Do you not remember the OU and Nebraska games?

I have no idea what his QBR was in those games.

It cracks me up that you guys think I'm obsessed with QBR.
 
Do you not remember the OU and Nebraska games?

I have no idea what his QBR was in those games.

It cracks me up that you guys think I'm obsessed with QBR.


How do you look at Neb 09 in the big12 champ game and not think, wow we were lucky to have colt to even get what we got?

But you stated that you think Colt held that team back?!?

That line played as badly as I can think I ever seen! They triple teamed Suh and he still got to colt more than once. Nobody was open, and when they did manage to get open Colt was running for life in the other direction.

But you think that games result was because he played badly?!?!?

Or that his completion percentage that year was ANYTHING other than o line troubles, no running game and not a single skill player other than Jordan who ever got even a sniff by the nfl?

Simply shaking my head.
 
How do you look at Neb 09 in the big12 champ game and not think, wow we were lucky to have colt to even get what we got?

I don't even know how to respond to this other than to say...

a. Colt threw 3 interceptions.
b. The offense scored 13 points.
c. He nearly made the most infamous ****-up in college football history.
d. It wasn't his worst game of that season.

Oh, he had a 81.8 rating. I looked it up... just because I knew it would be horrendous. He was basically Carson Beck vs. Texas in Austin in that game.
 
  • Like
Reactions: longhornlm
You love ME. Well, you tolerate me. ;)
3kYW.gif
 
It's odd how some people get into their feelings when the truth is told about QE. The reality is that there was not more than a hand full of games over his three seasons where you could unequivocally say he was the best player on the field. There were even a few games where Sark decided to take the risk away by not allowing him to throw the ball at all to finish off the game (Baylor '22, Kentucky '24). The fact that QE's passer rating this year was lower than Sam Elingher's rating in his final 2 years was somewhat surprising and disappointing, especially given the fact that Ewers is playing behind a much better OL and with better receivers and tight ends.
To win a natty your QB just needs to refuse to lose. Quinn is great, but just doesn’t become Superman when you need him to.
 
  • Like
Reactions: kwayne64
Again, I have no problem with them getting paid. I just sorta thought the market would equilize where college players wouldn’t get paid more than NFL rookie players. Would love to see a comparison analysis of average pay by position for college players versus NFL

Stunningly crazy.
These guys tend to think in terms of ROI and legacy, absent some other driver like a hounding wife. CDC needs to make a better case that they aren’t just writing a check to some teenager who may or may not even contribute (Cook, anyone), and that being in the CFP on the regular, and winning a Natty every now and then has real longterm payoff for the program and the university. And as DKR and others have said, it’s the Jimmy’s and Joe’s that make that happen.

Stability also matters. Jay leaving wasn’t great, Eltife times out at the end of ‘26, and as good as he is at so many other things, I don’t know if CDC builds relationships with the really big BMDs like DeLoss did. It does seem like CDC focuses on revenue and cash-flow building like an NFL/pro sports GM, and that leaves less time to work the good ol’ boy network. I think that is the right thing to do, the most sustainable thing he can do, and the future of big time college athletics, but perhaps at the cost of those big BMD “bluebird” checks, absent a compelling long-term ROI narrative for NIL, or tying recognition to it.
 
How worried should we be about WR and OL in 2025? We have very few proven players at either position
 
These guys tend to think in terms of ROI and legacy, absent some other driver like a hounding wife. CDC needs to make a better case that they aren’t just writing a check to some teenager who may or may not even contribute (Cook, anyone), and that being in the CFP on the regular, and winning a Natty every now and then has real longterm payoff for the program and the university. And as DKR and others have said, it’s the Jimmy’s and Joe’s that make that happen.

Stability also matters. Jay leaving wasn’t great, Eltife times out at the end of ‘26, and as good as he is at so many other things, I don’t know if CDC builds relationships with the really big BMDs like DeLoss did. It does seem like CDC focuses on revenue and cash-flow building like an NFL/pro sports GM, and that leaves less time to work the good ol’ boy network. I think that is the right thing to do, the most sustainable thing he can do, and the future of big time college athletics, but perhaps at the cost of those big BMD “bluebird” checks, absent a compelling long-term ROI narrative for NIL, or tying recognition to it.
Stability has nothing to do with this.

How do you know how these guys think? Based on what I know, it has very little do with ROI. That is not when I'm told by those that know.
 
Why? Ewers couldn’t hit him long last year and when he could, he had the dropsy’s more than any other WR. Seems like the answer has to be at RB.
In a game of slim margins, having a dynamic weapon to totally open up the field changes what Texas can accomplish on offense.
 
  • Like
Reactions: horns--21
Is canceling possible? I can’t imagine either teams wants to play

I don't even know how to respond to this other than to say...

a. Colt threw 3 interceptions.
b. The offense scored 13 points.
c. He nearly made the most infamous ****-up in college football history.
d. It wasn't his worst game of that season.

Oh, he had a 81.8 rating. I looked it up... just because I knew it would be horrendous. He was basically Carson Beck vs. Texas in Austin in that
 
The ol’ hungry dung beetle taunting the lion for missing a kill” proverb I just made up. Look, we’re kinda beyond/above jabs from Ou or aggy after the seasons they’ve had. Any that would think about opening their mouth right now says much about their judgement and appropriateness.

And no, this isn’t a game/season that will continue to haunt like the National Championship against Bama. It does’t deserve the emotional anguish or regret the Big 12 Championship; Simms over Applewhite cluster that cost us another. It’s not devastating or heartbreaking or program defining. In fact, I’m having a hard time being upset even when I try. We played a more talented and more complete football team at the perfectly wrong time. If it’s offense, defense and special teams we were anything but complete or complimentary 70% of the season. A problem only magnified against quality.

In the end, a very good season and team. One of our best. A great to elite defensive team with a physically and mentally delicate QB and no knockout punch. Maybe a backup K and WR away from another win or two. In years without ‘19 LSU or ‘25 Ohio State… well, who knows? Personally, I think we did well getting so far. Getting beat by a once equally flawed team that made the necessary changes isn’t going to break me. It’s football.

Most likely I’ll remember this season always being about Quinn….”Michigan Quinn”. All the time energy spent knowing he’s in there. Knowing he wins you a National Championship. Knowing he’d suddenly reappear in our biggest moments. Knowing he’d somehow become someone he wasn’t 80% of the season or even 80% of his career. Our expectations and likely his left unmet. And, well, that’s also foosball.
 
Last edited:
The ol’ hungry dung beetle taunting the lion for missing a kill” proverb I just made up. Look, we’re kinda beyond/above jabs from Ou or aggy after the seasons they’ve had. Any that would think about opening their mouth right now says much about their judgement and appropriateness.

And no, this isn’t a game/season that will continue to haunt like the National Championship against Bama. It does’t deserve the emotional anguish or regret the Big 12 Championship; Simms over Applewhite cluster that cost us another. It’s not devastating or heartbreaking or program defining. In fact, I’m having a hard time being upset even when I try. We played a more talented and more complete football team at the perfectly wrong time. If it’s offense, defense and special teams we were anything but complete or complimentary 70% of the season. A problem only magnified against quality.

In the end, a very good season and team. One of our best. A great to elite defensive team with a physically and mentally delicate QB and no knockout punch. Maybe a backup K and WR away from another win or two. In years without ‘19 LSU or ‘25 Ohio State… well, who knows? Personally, I think we did well getting so far. Getting beat by a once equally flawed team that made the necessary changes isn’t going to break me. It’s football.

Most likely I’ll remember this season always being about Quinn….”Michigan Quinn”. All the time energy spent knowing he’s in there. Knowing he wins you a National Championship. Knowing he’d suddenly reappear in our biggest moments. Knowing he’d somehow become someone he wasn’t 80% of the season or even 80% of his career. Our expectations and likely his left unmet. And, well, that’s also foosball.
Good stuff.
 
  • Like
Reactions: not in the face
The ol’ hungry dung beetle taunting the lion for missing a kill” proverb I just made up. Look, we’re kinda beyond/above jabs from Ou or aggy after the seasons they’ve had. Any that would think about opening their mouth right now says much about their judgement and appropriateness.

And no, this isn’t a game/season that will continue to haunt like the National Championship against Bama. It does’t deserve the emotional anguish or regret the Big 12 Championship; Simms over Applewhite cluster that cost us another. It’s not devastating or heartbreaking or program defining. In fact, I’m having a hard time being upset even when I try. We played a more talented and more complete football team at the perfectly wrong time. If it’s offense, defense and special teams we were anything but complete or complimentary 70% of the season. A problem only magnified against quality.

In the end, a very good season and team. One of our best. A great to elite defensive team with a physically and mentally delicate QB and no knockout punch. Maybe a backup K and WR away from another win or two. In years without ‘19 LSU or ‘25 Ohio State… well, who knows? Personally, I think we did well getting so far. Getting beat by a once equally flawed team that made the necessary changes isn’t going to break me. It’s football.

Most likely I’ll remember this season always being about Quinn….”Michigan Quinn”. All the time energy spent knowing he’s in there. Knowing he wins you a National Championship. Knowing he’d suddenly reappear in our biggest moments. Knowing he’d somehow become someone he wasn’t 80% of the season or even 80% of his career. Our expectations and likely his left unmet. And, well, that’s also foosball.
Who knew F. Scott Fitzgerald posted here?
 
Ketch, with Mack back in Austin, does the program tap in to his ability to fundraise? I assume he’s headed for a TV role but it’s not the worst idea IMO.
 
I don't even know how to respond to this other than to say...

a. Colt threw 3 interceptions.
b. The offense scored 13 points.
c. He nearly made the most infamous ****-up in college football history.
d. It wasn't his worst game of that season.

Oh, he had a 81.8 rating. I looked it up... just because I knew it would be horrendous. He was basically Carson Beck vs. Texas in Austin in that game.


And you think that result was because of Colt’s performance?!?

Wtf ketch? How on earth do you think everything around him imploding wasn’t directly the cause of that performance?!?

I just don’t understand the absolute obtuseness of that sort of decision making or observational skill!

It’s amazingly blind.

I go back to my favorite comparison. You probably think Brady lost those 2 superbowls he played against the giants. Not that the giants DL kicked the absolute shit out of the patriots OL, and won that game.

Colt played as well as any QB could have. Hell Brady himself wasn't going to post a 150 QBR vs suh in that game. Brady likely doesn’t finish that game, as he wasn’t quite as mobile as Colt was.
 
And you think that result was because of Colt’s performance?!?

It was a huge part in it, yes. In what world was it not?

Did he also not play a part in the OU game that year?

What about Tech?

Is it just free passes in your mind unless he plays well. Those get to count?
 
Re the idea of cancellation of the Texas-Ohio State game-

The voices that people listen to in CFB world- McElroy, Klatt, Forde, Pate, Rece, Kirk, Fowler, etc- are going to be pushing the idea that you cannot punish these teams for scheduling that game because if you do, it disincentivizes anyone from ever playing anything other than garbage non-conference games.

Will that be enough to matter with the committee if Texas or Ohio State ends up 9-3 rather than 10-2 because it played that game? We will see. But I guarantee that will be a huge talking point with those guys- that that game is sort of the poster child for non-conference scheduling going forward.

Add to that that the networks should want those kind of games in the future and it’s going to put a lot of pressure on the committee to extend grace to the potential loser of that game.
 
It's true.
I get it. At least with my group of "text worthy" friends, that's part of it. You take it when its your time; and you damn well give it back when its theirs. The bigger the stage, the harder it goes. I always just looked at it as part of the game of rivalry sport friends.
 
Re the idea of cancellation of the Texas-Ohio State game-

The voices that people listen to in CFB world- McElroy, Klatt, Forde, Pate, Rece, Kirk, Fowler, etc- are going to be pushing the idea that you cannot punish these teams for scheduling that game because if you do, it disincentivizes anyone from ever playing anything other than garbage non-conference games.

Will that be enough to matter with the committee if Texas or Ohio State ends up 9-3 rather than 10-2 because it played that game? We will see. But I guarantee that will be a huge talking point with those guys- that that game is sort of the poster child for non-conference scheduling going forward.

Add to that that the networks should want those kind of games in the future and it’s going to put a lot of pressure on the committee to extend grace to the potential loser of that game.
9-3 probably gets you left out. It's a real risk IMO.
 
I get it. At least with my group of "text worthy" friends, that's part of it. You take it when its your time; and you damn well give it back when its theirs. The bigger the stage, the harder it goes. I always just looked at it as part of the game of rivalry sport friends.

I hate when people act like bitches after games. I'm very mindful not to b that guy that rubs salt in the wounds.
 
And you think that result was because of Colt’s performance?!?

Wtf ketch? How on earth do you think everything around him imploding wasn’t directly the cause of that performance?!?

I just don’t understand the absolute obtuseness of that sort of decision making or observational skill!

It’s amazingly blind.

I go back to my favorite comparison. You probably think Brady lost those 2 superbowls he played against the giants. Not that the giants DL kicked the absolute shit out of the patriots OL, and won that game.

Colt played as well as any QB could have. Hell Brady himself wasn't going to post a 150 QBR vs suh in that game. Brady likely doesn’t finish that game, as he wasn’t quite as mobile as Colt was.
We get it Brad McCoy.
 
9-3 probably gets you left out. It's a real risk IMO.
I get that that’s the issue.

The sport is harming itself if it’s not pragmatic about this, though. And the networks ($$$$) will care about that.
 
I get that that’s the issue.

The sport is harming itself if it’s not pragmatic about this, though. And the networks ($$$$) will care about that.
The sport is soaring. The addition of the playoffs is a massive success.

The process is like watching sausage being made.
 
The sport is soaring. The addition of the playoffs is a massive success.

The process is like watching sausage being made.
Agree on the big picture.

But replacing all of its early season good content with 59-3 buy games is not a result anyone should want. And that includes the money people.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Coelacanth
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT