LOL. You don’t know with any confidence that any of those scenarios won’t happen. The only unlikely one is Murphy.
You’re the guy who thought Hudson Card would be great for Pete’s sake.
Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Sark Might Just Be Mack 2.0)
- Thread starter Ketchum
- Start date
You’re the guy who thought Hudson Card would be great for Pete’s sake.
I'm also the guy that correctly pinned some of Quinn's issues years before anyone else was doing anything but slobbering over him as some kind of perfect prospect.
We get some right, we get some wrong. That's the job.
In this instance, I don't have a dog in the fight. I'm reporting what I hear, what I've heard and what I will hear in the future.
What you’ve heard is worth as much as a cup of coffee if the players do or don’t perform according to plan. Arch will be cast aside faster than you can say “portal” if he isn’t who we think he is. Same with Quinn.
As to saying you “correctly pinned some of Qunn’s issues” what were those exactly?
Quinn will be a huge stud at UT before he leaves. Agree or disagree? Cast your vote now. I’ll be reminding you.
I laugh at those (majority of this board) who have jumped far from his bandwagon.
Sark’s career at Texas largely rests on Ws and Ls. Sark knows it.
Andy you conspicuously ignored the rest, I’ll put you down as saying Quinn won’t be a stud. You would have responded if you did.
Now we can argue what the definition of stud is next year when Quinn takes us to the Big12 championship game.
There’s a big difference between playing at the next level and being a stud at UT. Gilbert played at the next level and was a joke at UT.
You seem to be afraid of making a stand.
a. I'm not quite sure how 2023 looks for Ewers as a whole or where his career is going in the long haul. I haven't yet seen proof that he can handle the mental complexities of his craft.
b. I'm not afraid to make stands. I just don't make them when I don't feel a strong conviction.
Only someone with a strong case of confirmation bias could believe that Ewers is a sure thing.
Very fair answers. Call me what you want. I’ve seen Ewers since he was a sophomore in HS and nothing has changed my opinion. He made throws this year that we haven’t seen a UT QB make since Colt. So much of his “bad” play this year was explainable if you were watching with open eyes.
The kid has it. I’m expecting him to show out Thursday and carry it into spring.
That’s what taking a stand looks like, btw.
If he (took part in any violent act against his partner) he should just move on without another penny from UT.
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For anyone paying attention, winning big in college football is 90% about stacking and developing talent. Whether we're talking Saban, Meyer or Smart, they all built dominant college programs by consistently stacking and maximizing top rated recruiting classes, not by being elite coaching minds. Both Saban and Meyer were spectacular failures when they tried their hands in a league where talent was more evenly distributed.
Good stuff Ketch, but for your Beard take.
Whenever I get questions about Steve Sarkisian and the future that will unfold for the Texas football program under his watch, I often find myself conflicted.
On one hand, I do have doubts about him as a head coach. I don't ever watch the Longhorns with Sarkisian steering the ship and feel like I'm watching an elite coach unleashing his form of a truly elite product.
A 13-11 record through two seasons is what it is.
Yet, it's hard not to remember that the last time Texas was taken to the mountaintop (or even near the edge of it), it was led by a coach that was initially quite doubted by Texas. Yes, I'm talking about William Mack Brown.
The same guy that gave the burnt orange world a five-year losing stretch against OU from 2000-2004 that was historically embarrassing during a few moments. Then there were Holiday Bowl losses to Oregon and especially Washington State, when the early internet mobs wanted blood. The fact that his first six seasons were mostly remembered for the OU losses and the disaster in Dallas during the 2001 Big 12 Championship game told quite a story.
Yet, the man could recruit his backside off.
Four months after losing 63-14 in the Cotton Bowl to the Sooners in his third season, Brown pulled off Derrick Johnson, Cedric Benson, Jonathan Scott, Quan Cosby and Cedric Griffin on the way to a top-three class. The very next year when Roy Williams went Superman over Brett Robin and forced a Chris Simms interception to cement a 14-3 loss for the Longhorns, Brown signed the best recruiting class in the history of the Texas program (a program-best six 5-stars).
Eventually, stacking up all of those superstars in recruiting pushed Mack over the top. It took time, but he eventually got there and once he got there, he stayed there for almost a half-decade.
You remember ... the glory years.
Over the course of the last week, as Texas put together a recruiting class that might be as good as any since Vince Young and Co. signed what feels like an astonishing two decades ago, it was hard not to wonder if Sarkisian is emerging as the new Brown in town.
Not much outside of dusting OU up like a John Steinbeck novel this year has really jumped off the page for Sarkisian, yet he just keeps stacking up super blue chips on the roster. As Brown proved in 2004, 2005, 2008 and 2009, having a bunch of super blue chips on the roster eventually tends to produce moments of greatness if you can just keep producing chances.
Entering this season, Texas ranked eighth in the nation in super blue chips on the active roster with 10.
Sark signed seven a few days ago alone.
How substantial is signing seven of the nation's top-50 prospects?
Texas has never done it before. The all-time heralded 2002 recruiting class, with all of its 5-stars, only produced six top0-50 prospects. It means that the 2023 class just produced more high-end super blue chip prospects than any class in the history of the Texas program.
If similar success can be maintained year after year, it will mean that the Longhorns will be on the verge of Georgia/Alabama talent levels heading into the SEC in 2024.
Take a look at last year's Super Blue Chip Chart going into the 2022 season:
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Sark is currently averaging five super blue chips per recruiting class in his first full recruiting classes (not including transfers), which would have the program producing Ohio State-levels of talent over the course of four full windows.
Texas isn't there yet, but it's not that far away, either. If Sarkisian can just keep channeling his Mack Brown 2.0 impersonation, the talent on campus could approach "too talented to fail" status.
Of course, it's not foolproof. Jimbo Fisher proved that this season when he took a team with the fourth-highest super blue chip percentage in the country and missed a bowl game. Yet, it's not an accident that the teams that annually have the most super blue chips control the state of college football.
Perhaps the thing that the example of Fisher and the Aggies provides is a clear sign of how important elite quarterback play is within this discussion. If you have top-flight quarterback play and the flood of super-blue chips surrounding him, anything becomes possible.
Although it hasn't happened yet since he's been in Austin, great quarterback play would seem to be on the horizon for the Longhorns because Sarkisian attracts the very best quarterback talent to his programs.
Patience isn't exactly a popular word for a fan base that has been in the doldrums for more than a decade, but there's very much a plan that is unfolding that is easy to understand.
It simply might take until the 2025 season until enough talent is in place that it can simply overpower most of the teams on any schedule through sheer volume.
That would be Sarkisian's fifth season in Austin. Brown didn't win his first conference title and/or national title until his eighth season in Austin.
I suppose that's where Texas fans would like to see the similarities stop, if at all possible.
No. 2 - 2002 super blue-chips vs 2023 super blue chips
(using Rivals’ overall national rankings)
2002
No. 1 Vince Young
No. 13 Rod Wright
No. 15 Justin Blalock
No. 23 Marquis Johnson
No. 35 Edorian McCullough
No. 38 Bryan Pickryl
No. 53 Aaron Harris
2023
No. 1 Arch Manning
No. 15 Anthony Hills
No. 30 Johntay Cook
No. 32 Cedric Baxter
No. 34 Malik Muhammad
No. 40 Colton Vasek
No. 49 Derek Williams
No. 3 -Here come the early enrollees ...
When we talk about players from the incoming class of freshmen who have a chance to make first-year contributions, we need to take into consideration the new D.J. Campbell Rule.
It states that no matter how talented a player might be, if he doesn't enroll in January, it's possible that his first-year impact will be minimal.
So, keep that in mind when thinking ahead this season.
Early Enrollees
QB - Arch Manning
RB - C.J. Baxter
WR - Johntay Cook
WR - Deandre Moore
OL - Jaydon Chatman
OL - Connor Stroh
OL - Andre Cojoe
OL - Payton Kirkland
DT - Sydir Mitchell
DE - Colton Vasek
LB - Anthony Hill
LB - Liona Lefau
LB - Derion Gullette
CB - Malik Muhammad
Summer enrollees
RB - Tre Wisner
WR - Ryan Niblett
TE - Spencer Shannon
TE - William Randle
OL - Trevor Goosby
DE - Billy Walton
LB - S'Maje Burrell
LB - Tausili Akana
DB - Derek Williams
No. 4 - On Xavier ...
View attachment 3670
He's got a number.
He's seemingly worked out whatever needed working out with Steve Sarkisian with regard to a disappointing season.
The NIL stuff seems to be taken care of.
For all of the unfair talk about his body language and dropped passes this season, the truth of the matter is that Xavier Worthy loves being a Texas Longhorn. The proof of that is not only to be found at all of the university events that Worthy attends in the name of supporting his fellow athletes, but the proof can be found in the fact that he's still here.
The next time someone calls Worthy out over isolated incidents, maybe remind them that he's actually the kind player that most fans claim to desire the most ... the kind that wants to be here more than anywhere else. Not everyone in Worthy's personal orbit feels the same way, but a big part of going to college for a lot of young people is beginning the stage of life where you control the decisions that dictate your life.
It seems Worthy is doing exactly that. He can go anywhere. He can play for anyone. Yet, he wants to be a Longhorn and that's what he seems intent on being.
No. 5 - An ominous remark?
As I recently reported, the return of Jaylan Ford isn't quite the slam dunk in December than it seemed to be in November. While a lucrative NIL package awaits Ford if he chooses to return to school for another season, there's a sense out there among people I've spoken with in the last couple of weeks that it might not be enough.
He might want to make NFL money. He might want to move on. He might want to strike while the iron is hot.
Might. Might. M-i-g-h-t.
It remains to be seen what will happen after the bowl game, but Pete Kwiatkowski said the quiet part out loud on Monday.
No. 6 - The departing scorecard ...
With the news breaking on Monday that Hudson Card is headed to Purdue to play for new head coach Ryan Walters, here's a look at where the departing Longhorns who have hit the portal in the last month have landed:
QB - Hudson Card (Purdue)
WR - Troy Omeire (TBA)
WR - Agiye Hall (TBA)
OL - Andrej Karic (Tennessee)
OL - Junior Angilau (Oregon)
OL - Logan Parr (TBA)
LB - Devin Richardson (Washington State)
LB/Edge - Prince Dorbah (Arizona State)
LB - DJ Harris (TBA)
DB - J.D. Coffey (TBA)
DB - Jamier Johnson (Indiana)
P - Isaac Pearson (TBA)
No. 7 - It's just icky, man ...
I don't know what to say about the Chris Beard situation as things currently stand other than to say it's all very icky.
It's icky that this situation exists in the first place.
It's icky that the alleged victim released a Friday news dump statement before Christmas, basically saying that the situation is her fault.
It's icky that nowhere in her statement did she say that Beard didn't get physical with her.
It's icky that so many people would rather not ask any follow-up questions to any of what's happened and are content to let Friday's statement from Beard's fiancée be the final word on the matter in the name of getting him back on the court as the Texas head coach.
It's icky that there's an active player on the roster that was arrested in June for roughly the same type of crime that Beard has been charged with and the university decided it was okay that he could play before the situation was resolved.
Look, I don't know if I have any right answers. All I know is that if Beard did get physical with his fiancée, I don't believe he should be the head coach at Texas.
It all just feels very icky.
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) Never say never, but I'm not hearing that at the moment.
(Buy) I'm really curious to see where they end up going in the Portal for wide receivers because I keep getting clues that they know more than we know about who could soon be entering at the position.
(Buy) I think everyone realizes that serious improvement will need to be made and there's a lot of optimism from those close to him that it will happen.
(Buy) I think you nailed it.
(Buy) Let's not completely overreact if it doesn't happen, but this pass defense is one of the worst in college football. With weeks to prepare for it, you'd expect some really positive production.
(Sell) I'm not sure this linebacker class has multiple elite players in it. I do believe it has several close to elite level type of prospects, but that's not the same thing as what the OL group did a year ago.
(Sell) There's a lot that has to be replaced and we don't full know how that is expected to happen.
(Sell) It's always important for momentum going into the off-season and I would argue that 9-4 looks better on paper than 8-5. It means you're one game away from double digit wins and that's not a small barrier.
(Buy) It sounds just like the kind of petty we should all expect in the final season.
(Sell) No, I don't sense that is in the cards.
(Sell) I don't think anyone at Texas is underestimating the Huskies. I sense a lot of respect.
(Sell) I want you to know that I paused when thinking of the answer, which is to say that I believe it's very possible. I reserve the right to change my answer in time.
(Sell) I think it's a push. You can make a case that his skill set might make him a better fit, but if forced to choose, I'd probably go Hale.
(Sell) I don't expect him to be fully released by the spring.
(Buy) Yes. Safety and linebacker.
(Sell) One of those three is not going to be anywhere near those numbers. I just don't know which guy it will be at this point. I expect two lead dogs that handle the majority of the works.
No. 9 - Scattershooting on anything and everything ...
... Brings on the bowl season!
... Fully expecting a Georgia/Michigan national championship game.
... There's a part of me that is wondering if Saturday's win against the Eagles is the last piece of pure elation that we will feel as Cowboys fans for the rest of the season ...
... I really need to shake fantasy football from my life. The lows suck more than the rare highs are awesome.
... I doubted Trevor Lawrence as an elite NFL quarterback of the future, but it's starting to feel like my doubt might have been misplaced.
... Denver is so screwed that I almost feel bad for them, except those 51 points allowed on Saturday killed my fantasy team.
... Wait, Tua is back in concussion protocol? Yikes, man .... yikes.
... With two games to go, D'Onte Foreman is 189 yards away from a 1,000-yard season. He had 12 rushing attempts through the first 5 games of the season.
... I'm so happy that the Premier League has returned to my life.
... I didn't watch a single second of the NBA on Christmas Day. In fact, I spent most of the day in a house where there was no NFL on TV. I definitely had the itch.
... A picture is worth 1,000 words.
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No. 10 - The List: Top 10 Jeff Buckley Songs...
Everyone in a while I get into a Jeff Buckley mood and this week just happened to be one of those weeks. I found myself wrapping presents and listening to one of my personal favorites non-stop instead of listening to Christmas music.
The truth is that Buckley is to me with male vocalists what Eva Cassidy is to me with female vocalists.
I worship them both and it's so depressing that we lost both so early.
Let's do this.
View attachment 3672
Last five songs out: Eternal Life , What Will You Say , Just Like a Woman, Morning Theft and Vancouver
10. Satisfied Mind
Just a simple piece of gracefulness all wrapped up into a nearly six-minute song.
9. Mojo Pin
The last time I did a Buckley list, this song was on the outside looking in. I've corrected that mistake.
8. Lilac Wine
The perfect song if you want to settle into a chilled out Buckley song.
7. Forget Her
Maybe the most underrated song of his career.
6. So Real
We're starting to get into some rarified air as far as music that I love is concerned. I've got this song at No. 6 and it's not a song I'd ever want to do without. I love the Grace album… it's a top 5 all-timer for me.
5. Grace
The song on Grace that lets you know greatness was in front of you.
4. Everyone here Wants You
On of the damn sexiest songs ever recorded.
3. Last Goodbye
One of three songs I considered for the No. 1 spot on the list.
2. Lover, You Should Have Come Over
If this list were all about my personal views and nothing else, this song would rank No. 1.
1. Hallelujah
Not my personal favorite, but it's the song that made him a star. It' power cannot be overstated.
Beard exercised control while she was out of control but I’m sure guys who use the word Icky would just stand there and allow a hot tempered woman slap them repeatedly for nothing but not giving them the control of attention.
She isnt the victim or person being used. Beard isn’t an abuser and she may have cost him his job and career.
I hope not but she has certainly stained a once promising career. His first wife said physical abuse wasn’t part of Beards character and I would take her word over anyone on this board.
We don’t believe the media slant or that Beard is a physical abuser as his ex wife says it wasn’t in his personality .
But we do think his current gf has a bit of a hot pepper temper and caused a blowout for attention when he went to sleep in another room over disagreement nd even she says his responses were in self defense.
Is there a link to his ex making that statement? If not, where did you get that info? Beard chose the crazy woman. He didn't have to. Their fights tend to get a little rough sometimes. He is guilty of poor judgment and not living above reproach.
Saban wasn't a massive failure (outside of his departure). He went 9-7 in the first season and then 6-10 in year two. Miami didn't want him to leave.
You know what control is?
Not using violence. Walking away from the situation. Defusing it without making it worse.
(Sell) I think it's a push. You can make a case that his skill set might make him a better fit, but if forced to choose, I'd probably take Hale.
**********
Saw that Hale runs 10.84 in 100 meters. Saw an article a while back that ranked the top 10 receivers in high school. Of the top 10, Hale was the slowest of the group. A 10.84 is not bad, but not that elite in the college ranks. Moore brings speed, and more speed, so I'm happy with taking him. Sark likes speed.
Using rivals rankings as an example, super blue chips are the ones rated 6.1 and 6.0 (5* and the highest rated 4*s), which is roughly the top 65 (2 rounds of the NFL draft is 64).
Blue chips are the 4*who are rated 5.9 and 5.8, which is basically the 65th - to wherever 4*s stop.
Someone came up with the blue chip ratio, where it is claimed that if 50% of your roster are 4* and above, you should be competing for championships (I think there are about 10 teams in this group, including Texas). In this metric, the gap between Bama, UGA, Ohio St and the rest isn't that pronounced.
Ketch has posited the super blue chip ratio, which shows these three are in a tier(s) above the rest of college football, and a more precise way of determining who are the true contenders for the national championship. aggy might have even joined this tier after last year's class.
I think Bama and uga each have more super blue chips than the entire big 12 has in total, including ou and Texas.
I guess the word for his NFL tenure would be mediocre. None-the-less, he was smart enough to realize that he would never be able to build the type of talent advantage in the NFL that he could on the college level.
I'm still on the Ewers train.
But his play after he came back from injury was some of the worst I've seen from a starting qb at Texas.
He was just off. Hope he gets it fixed, whatever it is.
@Ketchum, basically you're saying there is 0 chance Ewers is at Texas in 24. I can't say I agree with that. There are three plausible scenarios for 24
1) Ewers leaves early, Arch in 24
2) Ewers stays and starts in 24
3) Ewers transfers out, Arch in 24
I don't think Ewers stays in 24 if he isn't named the starter after spring, at the latest.
Is there a level of success that exists that keeps Ewers at Texas, and keeps Arch on the bench in 24? Barring injury.
Will Ewers leave if he thinks he'll be drafted in rounds 5-7? Or would he stay to kick off a potential Heisman, national championship, and maiden sec voyage in 24? And then you have Mays and Williams in next year's draft class that could push him down draft boards.
I think there are too many variables to say anything with certainty, unless you think Sark has flat out gauranteed Arch the job in 24?
Here's where I stand....
Ewers plays really well and goes to the NFL
or
He doesn't play well enough and he loses the job.
I suppose there's a middle ground somewhere, but all middle grounds point to Arch.
Did you grow up in a single parent home because your responses sure seem that you never saw control arguments or parents in a divorce situation where the power play isn’t always from a man.
If so that explains your skewed perspective and your false opinion that it’s always on the man.
Passion, insecurity or jealousy is a dangerous tool in an edgy woman’s arsenal.
I believe he exercised an extreme amount of self control and maybe you do not but he has to get out the door to move away from the conflict as quickly as possible and to defuse an unreasonable situation. Sometimes you have to go thru an aggressor to get out of the door to create space for tempers to settle down.
He did. She pressed the nuclear button.
I don’t believe Beard abused his fiancé but I believe she went in his room looking to start or finish a conflict.
I did grow up in a single parent household. Grew up around a lot of divorces.
The bottom line is that my ethos as a man are iron-clad on it never being ok to get physical with a woman, barring some sort of life-in-danger situation.
You walk away. You don't get violent. I've been with my wife for 17 years and it's never been remotely close to being an issue and she drives me crazy on the regular.
I am never ok with my kids watching my wife and I argue.
Is the problem that is that our ethos are different and you believe the reason for that is that you are following what you watched as a child in your household?
If so, I would stress that being the chain-breaker in this thing that has been passed down through at least one generation is incredibly healthy.
You grew up with a mom and want her to always be protected I can completely understand where your perspective comes from but in a 2 parent household there are always some turf battles that have to be settled hopefully in a positive way not with loud or physical confrontations or disrespectful arguing.
It takes 2 mature people to disagree respectfully.
Never saw my parents ever be physical. But I have seen plenty of others after becoming an adult and most of those were crazy situations.
I agree that a man should never ever get physical with a woman
I also believe that we have a huge cultural issue that allows women to get physical with a man with very little consequence
That there’s even still a saying that says a man should never get physical is 100 percent proof of this - because it should say PERSON
I also believe that we have a huge cultural issue that allows women to get physical with a man with very little consequence
That there’s even still a saying that says a man should never get physical is 100 percent proof of this - because it should say PERSON
