A few thoughts...
1. Happy New Year's, Orangebloods fam. Here's to a magnificent 2024.
2. Depending on when you read this, we're wither one night or hours away from the game. Thank goodness!
3. If the team can match @MB-HORNS' energy in the Superdome on Monday night, the Longhorns will blow Washington out.
No. 2 - The blueprint to beat Washington ...
On Friday, we had a chance to talk to Houston Texas football analyst/sideline reporter John Harris about the upcoming playoff match-ups and his commentary on what his pathway would be for Texas in trying to beat Washington was so good that I knew I would use it for the column this weekend.
1. Take a page from Bill Belichick
“Okay. I put (the best Texas corner) on McMillan one-on-one and then I take my second-best cover guy or third-best or whomever and I give him help all day over on (Rome) Odunze. I've seen the Patriots do that a lot with Belichick and will take his number one cover guy and put him on the number two wide receiver man-to-man and play man-to-man all night because that number two wide receiver is not getting open against the number one cover guy. We used to see this with Hopkins ... so DeAndre Hopkins was our number one, you know. Will Fuller was the number two at that time. so (Belichick) would take Malcolm Butler and he would put Butler on Fuller as his number one guy, then he would take Logan Ryan and put Ryan on Hop and let Ryan beat up Hop all game but give him help over the top. Now there's a third part of this and that's Ja’Lynn Polk can end up being, I mean I don't want to say he's a third wheel. I mean he's as good as any third wheel you're going to find. That does complicate things but I would put my best cover guy on McMillan, I would double Odunze and take that away."
2. Force Penix right.
"I would force Penix right every time that he leaves the pocket. Force him to go right because he does not like to go right and throw. If he starts right he eventually works his way back left to be able to go throw from his left-handed side so that's gonna be one thing that Texas has to adjust to early on is (to) make sure that Penix isn’t moving left.
“Also, that ball is going to arrive faster than any team they faced this year. Nobody else throws the ball like Penix. Quinn's got a tremendous arm, but the ball will not get there any quicker from Ewers than it does from Penix, so that's going to be one thing and it's coming from a lefty so they got to adjust to that a little bit but that's how I go about covering those guys.
“I would make sure that my rush forces him to the right side I would send my overload blitzes from the defensive right to make sure he goes that way. I got to do that because if I get him going right and I get him out of the pocket I'm winning the ball game. I'm winning the ball game. Point blank, end the story."
3. Eliminate Dillon Johnson
"As crazy as it sounds, the absolute most important thing in this game is to eliminate Dillon Johnson. Eliminate Dillon Johnson and I think they can do that with their four-man front. I know Washington's offensive line won the Joe Moore Award, I think it's a good line. I think Fautanu is really good at left tackle I think he'll be a right tackle or guard at the next level. He's a really good player. I think the inside guys, Brailsford is a freshman, I think that Murphy and Sweat can run roughshod through that interior three and that shuts out Dillon Johnson and if they eliminate Dillon Johnson and then all of a sudden (they) put the game all on Penix, now you got him exactly where you want him and PK can run as many different games and blitzes as he wants, doubling Odunze man-to-man with some help for the other two depending on what you're going to drop into coverage and change the picture for Penix as much as possible.
"But move him right, get him moving right, make sure your coverage is kind of match so that if he goes right, make sure your coverage is playing that way (and) if he gets back left he's gonna hurt you, so if you eliminate Dillon Johnson's impact on that side of the ball and then you make Penix move right and out of the pocket, then I think it's going to be very difficult for Washington move the ball offensively."
A few bonus thoughts from Harris ...
* "I don't know what Washington can really take away from Texas."
* "I think (Adonai) Mitchell could end up having a bang-up day because I don't know who else matches up with Mitchell."
* "For Washington to have some success I think the biggest thing that they've got to do is take away any explosives. They got to put a cap on anything deep because they really can't match up with Worthy and Mitchell at all."
* "I think Texas wins this by a touchdown. That's going to be my prediction because I don't think Washington can run the ball on Texas and I don't know that Washington's secondary can really slow down all the different weapons that Texas has. I think Texas's defense can at least slow down Washington's weapons, but you can't let Penix turn it into I'm going left playground football. He wants to go playground football. Force him the other way and then he's got no chance ."
No. 3 - You insulted me ... No, YOU insulted me!
My favorite part of the build-up in Monday's game in New Orleans is watching both teams go out of their way to feel more disrespected than the other by the comments that have been made about each other.
"How dare T'Vondre Sweat call our offensive line just another line, they've won the Joe Moore Award! They are certified," scream out Washington fans.
In fact, Washington fans are into their feels so much that they believe that when they beat Texas by multiple touchdowns on Monday night, the national media won't give them any respect.
Meanwhile, you better damn well believe that Texas players have noticed that Michael Penix Jr. has been willing to give the Longhorns only the faintest bit of praise.
Both teams are looking for every single slim margin to help create a victory that they can find, but neither team has been willing to kill the other team with kind praise. It makes both teams looking at every piece of minimal praise as an insult slightly ironic.
All I know is that it has raised the stakes in this game even more than the high stakes that clearly already exist.
No. 4 - Arch Mania ...
Anwar and I have joked for weeks that the media availability for Arch Manning at Saturday's Sugar Bowl availability would dominate any and all other Texas player media coverage by Georgia over Florida State-like levels.
Yup.
It was the top headline on national sites like ESPN and Yahoo.
It generated more page-views than any video on Orangebloods Live ... ever ... in less than 24 hours.
It's a reminder that when he eventually takes over the Longhorns at quarterback, it's going to be like having the fifth Beatle on the field.
To Arch's credit, I thought he handled the 40-minute media surge around him with relative ease and complete dignity. If a player can ever look comfortable in such a setting, he did an excellent job of it.
No. 5 - I got your disrespect right here ...
With Georgia hammering Florida State on Saturday, I found myself surfing YouTube and came across a Washington Huskies YouTube Show previewing the Sugar Bowl and not only did I give it a listen, I took notes.
There's not a lot of respect for the Longhorns ... at all. There's not a single area of the game where they believe the Longhorns remotely have an advantage. In case you were wondering about some of the thoughts being expressed by Washington folks ... I got you covered.
* They believe Jalen McMillan vs Jahdae Barron is the biggest UW advantage on the field. "(Barron) struggled at times with guys who are not even close to Jalen McMillan's caliber, so that's the main one that sticks out to me," one of the hosts mentioned.
* Don't believe that Texas has a single cornerback that can remotely hang with any of Washington's top three receivers.
* Believe that Texas' poor tackling all over the field will be one of the keys in the game. One host specifically mentioned the problems that Texas had in the Oklahoma game when trying to tackle along the perimeter.
* They believe that Texas hasn't seen anywhere close to the kind of quarterback play in the Big 12 that the Huskies have seen week-in and week-out in the Pac-12, which will be a big advantage for the Huskies defense in trying to get ready for Texas than vice versa. "Good quarterbacks torch them and they weren't as good as the ones in the Pac-12."
* They really don't seem to think Texas is worth a damn on defense outside of the defensive tackle position. That being said, they respect the hell out of T'Vondre Sweat and company. "(Sweat) is a show-stopping defensive tackle," one host proclaimed. “I don't even know a good comp for him in the NFL."
* They would like to see Michael Pennix on some designed runs for the first time this season in an effort to take advantage of the fact that Texas has struggled with dual-threat quarterbacks.
* The consensus was that they want up-tempo on offense in an effort to wear the Texas defense out.
* This was said ... "I'm not sure we're stressed about any two particular players, and surely not (Anthony) Hill and (Jaylan) Ford. I do think, though, our tight ends in this game against these safeties can actually be very successful."
* This also was said ... "When they are tired, it's been proven if you go watch the film, they get soft up the middle, eventually."
* In talking about their pass defensive weaknesses, one host suggested that Adonai Mitchell isn't productive after the catch and might not be able to exploit the issues in the Washington secondary.
This was said ... "I want to see Jabbar (Muhammad) follow and shadow Xavier Worthy. I actually like Jabbar in that match-up and if they want to try and beat us through the air with a tight end and Adonai Mitchell, who has something like 167 yards of total YAC on the year, as their No. 2 receiver, I am not stressed about that for our defense."
* One host said that the Washington safeties probably match-up better with Ja'Tavion Sanders than anyone Texas has seen all year.
* Another host said that if UW is aggressive with the Texas receivers, they'll be fine.
* There's not a lot of respect for the Texas running game, especially the run blocking by the offensive line. "This offensive line doesn't scare me any more than anyone we've seen multiple times this year. They really don't."
* They feel like UW's tackles will beat the Texas edge players with relative ease and that will allow their inside three to handle the Texas defensive tackles, although one host did say that the Texas depth at edge is something they haven't seen this season.
* General thought: "We've gone 13-0 (against) arguably the first or the second most difficult schedule in the country, so, like, why wouldn't we think we could just do it again?"
* Final quote I'll share: "I see Texas as a watered down Oregon."
* Predictions: UW 35-24, UW 38-33 and UW 42-28.
No. 6 - Semi-Final Playoff Player predictions ...
You better believe that my Prize Picks selections very much reflect what I'm about to list.
Quinn Ewers: 26 of 38 for 340 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT (169.6 efficiency rating)
Xavier Worthy: 8 receptions for 145 yards and 2 touchdowns
Adonai Mitchell: 7 receptions for 95 yards and 1 touchdown
Ja'Tavion Sanders: 5 receptions for 75 yards
CJ Baxter: 15 carries for 65 yards and a touchdown
Jaydan Blue: 10 carries for 55 yards
Anthony Hill: 7 tackles, 3 TFL, 2 sacks and 1 FF
T'Vondre Sweat: 4 tackles, 2.0 tackles for loss, 1.0 sacks and 1 deflected pass.
No. 7 – Life without Rori …
No. 5 Texas put up a valiant effort on Saturday against No. 10 Baylor in its first game without its heart and soul in All-American candidate Rori Harmon.
It just wasn't enough against a Baylor team that just seemed to always be a notch above a team missing its best player. Time and time again, the Longhorns would cut the lead to three or four, but the Bears always had an answer to each Texas question. The game was screaming for a healthy Harmon to come off the bench and throw down the hammer, but it obviously never happened.
Upon thinking about the result in its aftermath, it's easy to think that a few themes from Saturday will emerge fairly frequently from here on out.
1. Texas is still going to be one hell of a tough team, night in and night out the rest of the way. This group will win a lot of games.
2. Against the best of the best in the sport, there's no getting away that the injury to Harmon will likely leave this team unable to climb the highest mountains in the sport. A Final Four-level team might not be Sweet-16 level good.
There's just a little bit of recalibration that everyone will have to make.
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Buy) Nothing has changed for me. I really, really like the match-ups for the Longhorns.
(Sell) Last I heard from my best source was that Sanders is leaning towards going pro. Things could or might have changed, but I stick with the last word I had for now.
(Buy) It's closer than you might think, but I'm going to go with a yes. John Harris and Devin Duvernay exploded in their final seasons as receivers. Earl Thomas went from a very good player as a redshirt freshman (honorable mention All-Big 12) to probably the greatest defensive back I've ever seen in a Texas uniform. Yet, Sweat went from a solid back-up to one of the top 2-3 defensive tackles of the last generation of football.
(Sell) I don't think Saban cares. That would mean his team is in the national title game. I'm sure he'd take that offer if you gave it to him.
(Buy) That's part of the reason why I'm picking Texas to win by 10.
(Buy) See above.
(Sell) I wouldn't go anywhere near that far. Other than going for it from his 7-yard line, those were basically 50-50 bets he made.
(Sell) For us lames out there with 9-year olds, absolutely.
(Sell) Ummmmm.
(Buy) Yes, that's the way I see it.
(Sell) The women's team is still a better team in their respective sport.
No. 9 – Scattershooting on anything and everything …
... Jalen Milroe sounded like a young man who had been waiting for a while to unload his Bill O'Brien baggage.
... I would be forever bitter about the Orange Bowl if I was an FSU fan. To have a perfect season end in one of the most abysmal ways possible would just be unforgivable.
... As if a James Franklin Penn State team was ever going to have enough points in them to beat a good SEC team in a major bowl.
... Hugh Freeze admitting he didn't do his job, while throwing his staff under the bus was kind of something to behold.
... Kentucky's Barion Brown might be the most exciting player I watched thus far in the entire bowl season.
... Clemson's Cade Klubnik won his last 5 games as a starter this season, but he has a big step to take next season. He's still very much just a guy. I think he takes it.
... Yikes.
... As God is my witness, I will never.... ever... play fantasy football again. I hate it. I will never allow myself to feel like I did on Sunday afternoon at around 3pm. Absolutely deflated.
... Holy hell, it's possible that home-field advantage in the semi-finals of the divisional round of the NFC playoffs will be decided by what happened with the officiating at the end of the Dallas/Detroit game. I say it all the time in the Premier League, but the important thing is getting it right and that doesn't appear to have happened. Us Cowboys fans would be irate beyond belief were the shoe on the other foot. And now it might decide home-field advantage in the first two rounds of the playoffs? Wow.
... That being said, the same crappy officials missed a tripping call on Dallas that would have ended the game before the Lions ever got the ball back. The NFL simply must do better.
... This was more fun than I imagined it would be.
... I couldn't even fully enjoy the Cardinals beating the Eagles because I was playing Kyler Murray in fantasy and he was in the middle of going 13 of 14 for 133 yards and 3 TDs in the second half, thus costing me a title and more than $1000. I have such mixed feelings, but it'll never happen again.
... Lamar Jackson is some kind of awesome in the regular season and is a deserving MVP. Now he has to do it in the playoffs.
... CJ Stroud should low-key earn some MVP votes. He's the difference between the Texans possibly making the playoffs and being one of the 5 worst teams in the NFL.
... Hot damn, Lil'Jordan.
... Down 49-19 with 3 minutes to go in the fourth quarter, Miami lost Bradley Chubb to a likely torn ACL. For who? For what?
... Please Manchester United, keep Erik ten Hag forever. Pretty please.
... Just win on Monday, Liverpool, just win. Pretty please.
... Took the wife to go see Ferrari this weekend and we both really enjoyed it. Is it great? No. Was it a really good movie with outstanding acting and a few dynamite set pieces? 100-percent yes. Go for Adam Driver and Penelope Cruz and stay for Michael Mann doing some Michael Mann stuff.
No. 10 - The List: Best Movies of 2023 ...
I haven't seen all of the alleged best movies of 2023. In fact, I've still got some big ones on my list to see.
Maestro. Poor Things. American Fiction.
Honestly, there's still a dozen or so on my 10-watch-list. Therefore, just know that I still have some work to do before Oscars season takes full force. That being said, here's a look at my current rankings.
Best Picture
1. Oppenheimer
2. Maestro
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Barbie
5. Spiderman: Across the Spider-Verse
6. The Killer
7. Past Lives
8. The Iron Claw
9. The Holdovers
10. Napoleon
Honorable Mention: Rye Lane, Ferrari, Air, John Wick: Chapter 4, Are You There God? It's me, Margaret, Saltburn, MI: Dead Reckoning (Part I)
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
2. Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
3. Zac Efron (The Iron Claw)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)
5. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
Honorable Mention: Michael Fassbender (The Killer), Joaquin Phoenix (Napoleon), Jay Baruchel (BlackBerry), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Teo Yoo (Past Lives), Adam Driver (Ferrari)
Best Actress
1. Carey Mulligan (Maestro)
2. Margot Robbie (Barbie)
3. Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
4. Greta Lee (Past Lives)
5. Natalie Portman (May December)
Honorable Mention: Abby Ryder Fortson (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret) and Halle Bailey (The Little Mermaid)
Best Supporting Actor
1. Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
2. Robert DeNiro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
3. Robert Downey Kr. (Oppenheimer)
4. Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)
5. Glenn Howerton (Blackberry)
Honorable Mention: John Magaro (Past Lives), Charles Melton (May December), Holt McCallany (The Iron Claw) and Ben Affleck (Air)
Best Supporting Actress
1. Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
2. Penelope Cruz (Ferrari)
3. Da’Vine Randolph (The Holdovers)
4. America Ferrera (Barbie)
5. Rachel McAdams (Are You There, God? It’s Me, Margaret)
Honorable Mention: Vanessa Kirby (Napoleon), Cara Jade Myers (Killers of the Flower Moon), Viola Davis (Air), Tilda Swinton (The Killer), Natalie Portman (May December), Julianne Moore (May December), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn)
Best Director
1. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
2. Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
3. Greta Gerwig (Barbie)
4. Btadley Cooper (Marstro)
5. David Fincher (The KIller)
Honorable Mention: Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson (Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse), Celine Strong (Past Lives), Ben Affleck (Air), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Michael Mann (Ferrari)
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