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Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (The true task that awaits Tom Herman...)

San Jose State
Maryland
Kansas
Kansas State
Tech
Baylol
Okie State
Iowa State
TCU

Maryland, Kansas State, Baylor, Okie state and TCU are all toss-ups. It is probable that we will lose one from the "should win" category. Getting those 9 wins is a VERY low probability.

I really hope you are correct. Reality says "Nah".

Maryland is not going to lay down.

Kansas State has been a 50-50 or worse for eternity

Baylor is also has a new coaching staff. They won't be a pushover

Ok St will be favored by Vegas, as will TCU.



9 wins should be expected from the talent on this team, unless this coaching staff is very overrated.

The excuses continue to float up, but they make no sense at all. This one about a team going 5-7 for two years so it cant win 9 games is one of the weakest yet. Every year is different, this is college football. Virtually the entire team returns, with substantially more playing experience. If that doesn't matter to the excuse makers, I bet it does to the experts in Vegas.
 
Kawhi is definitely a top 5 player. Most of the guys you listed aren't legit two way players. In fact even lebron coasts on defense sometimes. If harden, Westbrook , Durant , curry had to play opponents best guy on defense and shut them down like kawhi does they would lose a ton of their effectiveness on offense. kawhi is dominating on offense last 6 games. 35 points per. 65 percent from floor
 
"BUY or SELL: Jurgen Klopp wins a Premier League title before Tottenham? "

This poor soul was basically asking if you ever think Liverpool will win with Klopp. Because if that's the timetable given, you have until Klopp leaves/eternity #COYG #poorspuds #AggyoftheEPL
 
High school does not equal Div I P5 NCAA. It was a very young roster last year. Not as young this year. And, the last three years has done nothing but establish a culture of losing. That has to be turned around. That was what Ketch was writing about. With 6-7, 5-7 and 5-7 and a loss to Kansas in a game with 300 yards of rushing, all talk of talent on the roster is suspect. Herman has a shit sandwich on his plate. Will he fix it? Hell yes. Will he win 10 next year? Really low odds on that.
Heard won back to back state championships, but according to your logic, he is now a loser. The loser got fired. They will now learn from a winner.

Herman has more talent now than he ever had at UH. CS left a roster with kids that supposedly have potential. TH's methods and attention to detail are the perfect prescription.
 
Rabid drooling protestors is not what sustains democracy and their political impact is small. It is the year in, year out silent voter that truly shapes our government in response to its behavior. That is how we have arrived where we are today after the last six years. I sight Wisconsin as a perfect example as well.
 
KUgoalpost


Former Texas defensive backs coach Duane Akina used to have a favorite expression when discussing players who weren’t quite ready for prime-time.

“It’s not an add water, instant player,” he’d say time and time again throughout the years.

I’ve been reminded of Akina’s tried and true remarks several times the last couple of weeks whenever I’m engaged in discussion about the upside of Tom Herman’s 2017 Texas Longhorns. With calls for Herman to win nine or 10 games in year one, especially in light of Charlie Strong’s comments during the 2016 season about 2017 expectations, I find myself thinking the same thing over and over and over.

A lot of Texas fans don’t get it.

After years of steady decline that reached the basement in three consecutive losing seasons, the Texas Longhorns are not an add water, instant success kind of job.

The task that Tom Herman has been given is not an easy one, regardless of the talent Charlie Strong left him with the remains of the 2015 and 2016 recruiting classes.

Many of you reading this won’t want to hear this, but Texas is a losing program right now. It a program full of players that most of you would flinch to call losers, but they sure as hell aren’t winners at this level. Outside of Antwuan Davis, Jake Oliver and Naashon Hughes, there’s not a single Texas player that has ever experienced a winning season, which is an incredibly low bar to set when you consider where the bar for this program should be.

This program is currently a loser. The proof of that is 6-7, 5-7 and 5-7.

Oh, and the Kansas game.

The good news for Texas fans is that Herman has been in this spot before. When he took over Houston in 2014, it was a program that was a combined 13-12 in the previous two seasons and needed an internal reboot to get back to real relevance. Considering the Cougars went 8-5 in 2013 under Tony Levine, it’s not a radical thought to suggest that Herman inherits an even bigger reboot than the one that landed him this job.

So, when I hear that Herman is challenging his players and not making friends among them or their parents a chief priority, I totally get it.

I even understand his desire to push the media outside of the program’s inner workings as much as possible.

You might like a little sausage in the morning with your breakfast, but there’s a reason why the sausage-makers prefer that you not see the sausage-making process. What needs to take place in the program won’t be easy or pretty, which is why Herman wants as much internal privacy as possible.

When I think about what Nick Saban or Urban Meyer would do if they were the ones taking over the Texas gig, I have no doubts that being a jerk to pretty much everyone would be part of the deal. These players don’t need friends, they need someone to completely rebuild their inner-wirings in a way that prohibits constant losing.

This program needs to be made to feel incredibly uncomfortable because constant comfort is one of the reasons why this program needs Herman in the first place.

There will be plenty of time to make friends in the future, but Herman has work to do and it requires more labor than anyone around these parts probably wants to admit.

Oh, a cake has been baked, alright. It’s just too bad that it’s the kind that will make you violently ill from the use of expired eggs and butter.

No. 2 – Gary Johnson’s commit sends a statement ...

ceb0humw0aaxyjl.jpg


Three things really jump out to me when I think about what happened on Friday when the Longhorns picked up a commitment from one of their top two targets remaining on the board.

a. Todd Orlando has some serious talent to work with at the linebacker position. While his boss might be telling everyone that no one on the team currently has a starting position, I have to believe deep down Orlando has every intention of putting Johnson into a position where he’s playing right away, which is understandable because Johnson might be the most ready-made impact interior linebacker prospect the Longhorns have recruited in a long time.

When you consider that the linebacker position already has as much talent as any on the team, the addition of Johnson is adding strength to strength and it’s easy to see that Orlando’s group of players might be the unit that leads this team on Saturdays in 2017.

b. Johnson’s commitment has to be a wake-up call to guys like Malik Jefferson, Jeffrey McCulloch, Anthony Wheeler, Edwin Freeman and Erick Fowler. It’s going to be survival of the fittest and if I’m in that group, I’m going to be living with Orlando in the off-season, while digesting everything that’s important to him.

c. It’s a great sign when elite-level recruits are passing up visits to the likes of USC because they are ready to jump on board after a Texas official visit. Considering this staff is behind the eight-ball in tracking so many of these players, it says quite a bit that the coaches were able to turn Johnson to Texas so quickly.

d. How about Orlando? His reputation as a recruiter is pretty non-existent, yet he’s the guy who is ultimately responsible for landing the staff’s first true impact prospect. Attaboy, Orlando. I see you working.

No. 3– Don’t look now, but ...

The Longhorns are currently ranked 34th in the Rivals.com 2017 Team Rankings with 10 days to go until National Signing Day.

From an average star ranking per prospect standpoint, The Longhorns rank 15th in the nation with an average of 3.47, which is less than a full tenth of a point behind the likes of Notre Dame, Penn State and USC.

Eight of the 15 commitments in the class are rated four-stars by Rivals and three more are high three stars.

This class still has needs that it needs to have filled, but it’s a better class than most realize and it has a chance to get in the top-20 range if it can close out strong in the final days of the 2017 window.

No. 4 – Scattershooting on the Longhorns/recruiting …


… For a guy who doesn’t say much to reporters, K’Lavon Chaisson sure loves to gush about the Longhorns online, especially with social media. If his online vibe means anything at all, he’s all Longhorn. If he chooses LSU, it’ll forever serve as a reminder that online vibes can sometimes be nothing more than someone playing the recruiting game right back at the game that tries to play them. Oddly enough, Chaisson is the only person on Twitter that I’ve ever followed that deletes his Tweets as he goes. Literally, all but one of the tweets he’s made in the last week-plus are still in existence.

Interesting update today on four-star cornerback Chevin Calloway from the Arkansas Site in the Rivals network. While he said very nice things about his visit to Arkansas this weekend, it didn’t sound like he was overwhelmed.

"It was cool," Calloway said. "At first I thought it would be weird because we're all from different states, but we all came together and had fun and laughed. When we got down to business and talked schemes and stuff everyone knew what they were talking about. It was good to come together and communicate."

He also provided an idea of what to expect from here on out.

"I'm going to take a couple of days of just getting off the high of being here," Calloway said. "Getting all this stuff thrown at me. Then I'm going to sit down and look at the pros and cons of each school.

"If there is (a decision) before signing day, I probably won't announce it before signing day, but I will let the coach know that's the school I'm going to."

… For a guy with such a monster offer list, I’m not really sure I understand the low three-star ranking for Winter Park, Florida wide receiver Jordan Pouncey. I’m going to have to find out from one of our Rivals recruiting guys why the former Notre Dame commitment is viewed so lightly. It just doesn’t make a ton of sense.

… Westfield running back Daniel Young calling his visit this weekend “pretty dope” makes me feel like I’m not as old as the birth date suggests I am. #bringprettydopeback

… In order to finish with a top-20 class, I think they probably need to finish with Chaisson, Chevin Calloway, Stephen Zabie and a couple of three-stars to give themselves a chance. That would give the Longhorns 11 four-star commitments.

No. 5 – Buy or sell …

BUY or SELL: Texas flips a big recruit nobody is expecting right now?

(Sell) I don’t think it’s completely out of the realm of possibilities, but it’s getting to be late in the game and I don’t know that a big recruit is going to suddenly change directions in the last 10 days without an official visit. I suppose Kary Vincent might represent a possibility if we’re talking about players that the majority of people don’t believe Texas will land and not candidates from left field.

BUY or SELL: Tom Herman will pick up a transfer or Juco QB before Summer?

(Sell) I believe that the staff will look around, but these rainbow unicorns are easier to find in the imagination than they are sometimes found in reality.

BUY or SELL: The high volume of OOS offers will hurt Texas with some Texas high school coaches?

(Sell) No, Herman has already established himself inside the state and has a ton of assistants with endless connections. I don’t think we’ll so much as hear a single bad word about it moving forward from coaches around the state.

BUY or SELL: This 3-4 defense will have 4 LB on the field at the same time more the 25% of the defensive snaps?

(Buy) Oh yeah.

BUY or SELL: With the most recent addition to the Texas linebacker core, Malik Jefferson becomes the outside edge blitzer he was always destined to be?

(Buy) I fully expect Todd Orlando to be very creative in his use of Jefferson this season and that will include using him as a pressure player.

BUY or SELL: Kirk Johnson is healthy by fall two a days?

(Buy) I think so. There’s very little Kirk Johnson talk this year, especially compared to last season when his name was all the rage.

BUY or SELL: Texas loses one of its current commits between now and NSD?

(Sell) This is really a question about Temple defensive end Taquan Graham and I think he’ll be a Longhorn on National Signing Day.

BUY or SELL: Bob Stoops will continue to "look the other way" and recruit known trouble-makers and allow players who have broken laws to play? Meaning the Mixon episode will zero impact on how Stoops conducts his business in Norman.

(Buy) That old dog ain’t trying to learn new tricks. I’m guessing he’ll try and make a public example out of a guy or two for optical purposes, but we know what he’s about after all these years. There are too many examples to suggest otherwise.

BUY or SELL: Is Aaron Rodgers still the most physically gifted and accurate qb ever?

(Buy) Nothing has changed.

BUY or SELL: Jurgen Klopp wins a Premier League title before Tottenham?

(Buy) In Klopp, I trust. As he continues to fine-tune the roster and find pieces that fit his style, I believe that Liverpool will take the next step ahead of the Spurs, although the Spurs have a roster that could easily prove me wrong if it ever completely comes together.

No. 6 – The day Jarrett Allen became a star …

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I think there were probably two things on the minds of at least 90 percent of the Texas fans that are still hanging with the men’s basketball team this season following Saturday’s gutsy performance in Lawrence.

“Oooooh, so this is why Jarrett Allen was rated as a five-star recruit.”

“I hope he doesn’t do what he did on Saturday too many more times this season.”

For those that missed it (and I’m guessing a lot of you did), Allen dropped 22 points, 19 rebounds and three blocks in 34 minutes of action against one of the best teams in the country on its home floor. Although it was a different kind of performance than the one Kevin Durant had in Lawrence a decade ago, it brought to mind those types of memories because of its sheer dominance in moments.

Although he’s scored in double figures in nine of his last 10 games and has averaged 16.5 points and 11.3 rebounds per game in his last four, Saturday truly seemed to represent a breakout moment for the freshman from Austin.

As he starts to show flashes of his upside, it’s hard not to wonder if he’s playing his way into possible lottery territory as an NBA draft pick and what that might mean if that kind of projection exists.

Don’t laugh.

In what is considered to be a fairly deep 2017 Draft, Allen is currently rated as the No. 23 prospect by DraftExpress.com in its updated rankings.

The vibe for most of the season has been that he’ll definitely return, but Saturday was the first time it really crossed my mind that his only season in Austin might be this disaster of a lost one, while everyone waits for Matt Coleman to arrive.

It changes the way we’re all going to watch the rest of this season, well … those of us that are still watching this 7-12 basketball team.

No. 7 – Words I never thought I’d write …

The New England Patriots better be careful because the Atlanta Falcons, led by former Texas wide receiver Kyle Shanahan, might be an unstoppable force of nature.

When Atlanta finished the regular season as one of the highest-scoring teams in NFL history, I think most people thought it was a cute story, but there weren’t a lot of people proclaiming that the Falcons were about to overwhelm the rest of the NFC like it was Bruce Leeroy and they were Sho Nuff.

Now?

Now, when someone shouts, “Who’s the master?”, you say, “Matty Ice!”

There’s actually a lesson in what we’re watching with Matt Ryan, who was never special in his first eight seasons in the NFL, but in his ninth season at the age of 31, he’s become a force of nature while surrounded by a monster supporting cast. The Falcons have waited and waited and waited for Ryan to be THAT guy and finally… after the entire Obama administration… he has arrived.

Personally, I think we’re getting ready to watch one of the all-time great Super Bowls.

Early prediction: Atlanta 37 New England 34 in overtime.

No. 8 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …

… Favorite Tweet of the Weekend


… Watch the hell out, NBA. The Golden State Warriors are starting to find their stride midway through the season and monstrous beatdowns of Cleveland, Oklahoma City and Houston this week while playing B+ games was quite the signal that the power of the Death Star might be quite immense by the time we get to May.

… Over the course of those three wins, Durant scored 91 points on 51 shots (34 of 51) and was +77 while on the floor.

… Speaking of Durant, after all of the pettiness we’ve seen from Russell Westbrook since July, can’t we all agree he made the right decision to get out of Oklahoma City? The more he swears that he’s not bothered by it all, the more it’s pretty obvious that he’s actually still pretty wrecked by what happened.

… Kawhi Leonard is so freaking good. It’s a crazy historic time in the league where he can’t get much run as a top five player in the game because of the presence of LeBron James, Kevin Durant, James Harden, Russell Westbrook and Steph Curry. If we’re talking about this year and this year alone, you have to at least move Curry out of the way to get him in that grouping.

… Joel Embiid-Related Tweet of the Weekend


… What a record-breaking goal by Wayne Rooney on Saturday to steal a result when it looked like Stoke was headed for three points. It really was a break-taking moment.

… No one is catching Chelsea. The EPL race is over. Too many teams just keep giving away too many points.

… One team that has given away points in more needless fashion than anyone this year is my beloved Liverpool. For the first time this season, I thought I was watching the Brendan Rodgers’ Reds instead of Jurgen Klopp’s Reds on Saturday. In inexplicably losing to Swansea, the Reds kissed away any real chance to try and track Chelsea down. Now this season is about staying in the top four.

… The officiating in the EPL seems to get worse each week and each of the two biggest games of the last two weeks have been decided by poor officiating decisions.

… As a pretty big UFC fan, am I allowed to admit that none of the upcoming cards really do anything for me?

… The only thing even remotely interesting about the Australian Open is the prospect of a Williams sisters making the final, whether it is Serena, Venus or both.

No. 9 – This and That ...

lion.jpg


Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday and after knocking Hacksaw Ridge and Lion off my “need to watch list” this week, I’m pretty sure I’ve seen all of the films that will earn Best Picture nominations.

Unless Nocturnal Animals makes the cut.

Of the top 11 favorites in the incredibly historically accurate AwardsCircuit.com, I’ve knocked out 10 of the top 11 favorites out of the way with more than a month to go until Oscars Night.

Personally, I think it’s been a pretty exceptional year of movies. In fact, it’s been such a good year that when it comes to Best Picture, I’m kind of torn between four or five different films and since walking out of Lion this weekend, I’m more confused than ever about the order of the top films.

Therefore, before I give my updated rankings, here’s what’s been floating around in my head for the last few days (without giving away spoilers).

a. Lion completely knocked me over, head over heels. I don’t know that this has ever happened to me while watching a movie, but I pretty much had tears rolling down my cheeks for two straight hours. Maybe it connected with me to such a degree because I’m a parent to two young children, but at one point I could hear what seemed like a dozen people around me who were audibly impacted. Yes, I could hear people crying in the movie. It’s just a beautiful piece of cinema in almost every way.

b. There’s a part of me that wonders if we’ve all overrated La-la Land because we’re completely in love with Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone as an on-screen couple. It’s a wonderfully fun movie that made me feel happy while watching it, there’s so much to like, but I find myself torn over the question of whether it’s a special movie. As someone who is married to a woman that has spent her life obsessing over Gene Kelly movies, I’ve seen enough of them to know that the performance levels in the truly all-time great musicals surpasses what Gosling and Strong are capable of.

c. I’m going to get some pushback on this, but I just didn’t love Moonlight. Don’t get me wrong, it has some incredibly special qualities and the first ⅔ of the movie is the stuff of an Oscars winner, but I just didn’t feel like the movie closes the show in a way that holds up the same quality of the first two segments. There’s such a drastic jump in the final section of the movie and there was just too much unexplained about a main character that I feel like the audience is completely invested in. I just had so many questions (in a distracting way) when the movie was over and none were answered.

d. Although Manchester by the Sea is one of the most depressing movies of all-time, Casey Affleck’s performance is hauntingly awesome, so much so that I volunteered for a second viewing so that my wife could see it, in part because I was so wowed by all of the little moments inside his performance that impacted me as a viewer. I got into a mini-debate about the movie with a couple this weekend and I found myself rattling off about 10 scenes that stood out to me as “moments” throughout the movie.

e. Andrew Garfield isn’t going to win, but you can make the case that he should be nominated in the Best Actor category twice.

f. The most underrated performance of the year is Jessica Chastain in Miss Sloane.

g. Dev Patel should win Best Supporting Actor and it’s not even close. Same with Viola Davis in Best Supporting Actress.

Ok, here’s my updated list based on movies that I have seen.

(Still need to see: 20th Century Woman, Captain Fantastic, Elle, Loving, Jackie and Nocturnal Animals

Best Picture

1. Lion
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. Arrival
4. Silence
5. La-la Land
6. Moonlight
7. Hacksaw Ridge
8. Fences
9. Hidden Figures
10. Hell or High Water

Best Actor

1. Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
2. Denzel Washington (Fences)
3. Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
4. Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
5. Andrew Garfield (Silence)

Best Actress

1. Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane)
2. Emma Stone (La La Land))
3. Amy Adams (Arrival)
4. Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures)
5. Marion Cotillard (Allied)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Dev Patel (Lion)
2. Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
3. Issey Ogata (Silence)
4. Andre Holland (Moonlight)
5. Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Viola Davis (Fences)
2. Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
3. Naomi Harris (Moonlight)
4. Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures))
5. Lupita Nyong’o (Queen of Katwe)

Best Director

1. Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
2. Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
3. Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
4. Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
5. Garth Davis (Lion)

No. 10 - And finally …

God bless this wonderful country of ours.

With all that took place over the weekend, I couldn't help but think of words once spoken by Ronald Reagan.

"Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn't pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same."
A starting linebacking group of Johnson ,Jefferson,fowler and McCullough/ freeman/wheeler sounds PRETTYDOPE TO ME. LOL
 
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San Jose State
Maryland
Kansas
Kansas State
Tech
Baylol
Okie State
Iowa State
TCU

That's a reasonable looking 9 win total, especially since we get Okie Lite and K State in Austin. It assumes we lose to USC, Okie and West Virginia.
TCU is certainly beatable in Amon Carter. WV get Skyler Howard back but lose RB Wendell Smallwood and a bunch of talent, so I wouldn't give up on that game, though we likely lose a winnable game somewhere along the schedule...might win a surprise or two as well.

The difference in Charlie having Swoopes and true freshman Heard vs Herman having Sophomore starter Shane and true fish Sam after going thru a spring is enormous. The difference in those two situations is easily worth 1-3 wins. We were horrible with Swoopes and Heard, even with a solid D that year. Neither could consistently complete a pass.

If Sam is healthy and gets a full spring in, I doubt he redshirts, more likely he backs up Shane while Merrick pulls 3rd string duty. Don't know where Heard winds up but his passing ability is limited and if he is interested in NFL he stays at receiver.

Also our D is talented and a year older...not that young anymore but talented. Under Orlando there should be immediate improvement. Getting Johnson gives us a great set of LBs to work with (obviously important in a 3-4). We need a couple of young DL to step up but we've certainly got the numbers there to find a couple. Secondary is talented though they need to focus back as they did as freshmen. Holton Hill has NFL talent at CB, and Davis and Boyd are experienced and not far behind in talent. Boyd obviously had the best year last year, but if Hill focuses he can be All Big 12. Similar with Davis. All experienced, as is safety.

Better, more experienced OL, tons of WR talent and best talent at QB since Colt (even with the nagging injuries Shane had as true freshman he still broke many of Colt's records as RS freshman).

A healthy, slimmer Warren could be a hoss. New talent coming as well as Kirk Johnson and Porter coming back.

It's a different world with Herman and more experienced talent. 9-3 or even 8-4 gets us into a solid bowl and starts Herman's first real class off with a big haul. Future is bright.

Next year is a huge unknown until at least after spring, but I put the over/under at 8.5 right now. We'll see.

I realize and watched Charlie and his teams let us down repeatedly, but coaching matters, so do QBs, and we have better talent both as a coaching staff and QBs.

I think some are actually underselling the difference Herman and staff will have on this team next season. No lack of talent.

With Herman, if the heart of the team buys in, this team could easily be one of the surprise teams we see every year around the country.
 
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I hear you @Ketchum about this team being filled with 5-7 players. However, if you grade this team based on talent alone from every recruiting service team ranking the past 3 years only USC and OU have more talent on the schedule next year.

If Herman is the real deal even considering installing a new system 8-4 should be the floor for this team. It is amazing how successful coaches seem to select the best situations to "rebuild."
 
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No interest in Nadal or ideally Federer winning another major? Tough crowd....

Liverpool won't win a title in foreseeable future. Don't have the bank to stick with Chels or the Manc teams. Champions League is the best they can ever hope for
 
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Good stuff Ketch. You hit the nail on the head with your Herman bit. Learning to win is a lot harder than learning to lose and in watching some of the things that Herman is doing I see a method in his madness. It's something that has to be done in order to get everyone on the same page. One of the things that stands out to me me is that before Herman got to Texas there was no move to upgrade the facilities when it was obvious that Texas was playing 2nd fiddle to the top programs in that department. With as much money as Texas has there is no reason for there to be a disregard in that area. Fortunately this administration seems to understand the importance of letting the head coach have control of his program.
 
Heard won back to back state championships, but according to your logic, he is now a loser. The loser got fired. They will now learn from a winner.

Herman has more talent now than he ever had at UH. CS left a roster with kids that supposedly have potential. TH's methods and attention to detail are the perfect prescription.

The two years Heard played, he went 5-7 and 5-7. You can call that whatever makes you feel good, but the reality is that is a loser. I agree with you that Herman is a winner and he will get it turned around. Your expectation that he can just snap his fingers and everything these kids have been conditioned with will just immediately go away is unrealistic. We had talent at QB, but Shane got hurt, and played the last four games hurt, and sustained multiple injuries during that stretch. Only time will tell if his career was sacrificed to attempt to save CS's job. We had talent at RB, but he is in the NFL this year. We have one great OL, but after that, who knows. The WRs had flashes, but more inconsistency. The defense was the worst in the entire history of the program over the last two years.

There is work to do. A lot of it.
 
He's not wrong really. Baring major injuries Herman should win 8-9 this year at a minimum. I'd say there is virtually zero chance Herman only wins 5 games last year with that team and loses to Kansas. No way

I put the over and under at 7.5. 9 wins would be a real accomplishment. I don't want to be a downer, but I think the kool-aid high expectation of 10 wins or CFP talk is just setting the program back. Herman will get us there. He needs support for a year or two to recondition the minds of these players. Saban went 6-6 and lost to ULM his first year at Bama. I predict Herman to do better in his first year, but expecting this to a light switch project is just unrealistic.
 
I put the over and under at 7.5. 9 wins would be a real accomplishment. I don't want to be a downer, but I think the kool-aid high expectation of 10 wins or CFP talk is just setting the program back. Herman will get us there. He needs support for a year or two to recondition the minds of these players. Saban went 6-6 and lost to ULM his first year at Bama. I predict Herman to do better in his first year, but expecting this to a light switch project is just unrealistic.
Who is talking about playoffs? 9-10 is hardly unreasonable. Hell the most negative poster on the board is throwing out 10. If he wins 8 and shows good things most prob won't bitch either. There isn't much excuse for Texas to not be a good team this season with a great head coach and solid staff.
 
KUgoalpost


Former Texas defensive backs coach Duane Akina used to have a favorite expression when discussing players who weren’t quite ready for prime-time.

“It’s not an add water, instant player,” he’d say time and time again throughout the years.

I’ve been reminded of Akina’s tried and true remarks several times the last couple of weeks whenever I’m engaged in discussion about the upside of Tom Herman’s 2017 Texas Longhorns. With calls for Herman to win nine or 10 games in year one, especially in light of Charlie Strong’s comments during the 2016 season about 2017 expectations, I find myself thinking the same thing over and over and over.

A lot of Texas fans don’t get it.

After years of steady decline that reached the basement in three consecutive losing seasons, the Texas Longhorns are not an add water, instant success kind of job.

The task that Tom Herman has been given is not an easy one, regardless of the talent Charlie Strong left him with the remains of the 2015 and 2016 recruiting classes.

Many of you reading this won’t want to hear this, but Texas is a losing program right now. It a program full of players that most of you would flinch to call losers, but they sure as hell aren’t winners at this level. Outside of Antwuan Davis, Jake Oliver and Naashon Hughes, there’s not a single Texas player that has ever experienced a winning season, which is an incredibly low bar to set when you consider where the bar for this program should be.

This program is currently a loser. The proof of that is 6-7, 5-7 and 5-7.

Oh, and the Kansas game.

The good news for Texas fans is that Herman has been in this spot before. When he took over Houston in 2014, it was a program that was a combined 13-12 in the previous two seasons and needed an internal reboot to get back to real relevance. Considering the Cougars went 8-5 in 2013 under Tony Levine, it’s not a radical thought to suggest that Herman inherits an even bigger reboot than the one that landed him this job.

So, when I hear that Herman is challenging his players and not making friends among them or their parents a chief priority, I totally get it.

I even understand his desire to push the media outside of the program’s inner workings as much as possible.

You might like a little sausage in the morning with your breakfast, but there’s a reason why the sausage-makers prefer that you not see the sausage-making process. What needs to take place in the program won’t be easy or pretty, which is why Herman wants as much internal privacy as possible.

When I think about what Nick Saban or Urban Meyer would do if they were the ones taking over the Texas gig, I have no doubts that being a jerk to pretty much everyone would be part of the deal. These players don’t need friends, they need someone to completely rebuild their inner-wirings in a way that prohibits constant losing.

This program needs to be made to feel incredibly uncomfortable because constant comfort is one of the reasons why this program needs Herman in the first place.

There will be plenty of time to make friends in the future, but Herman has work to do and it requires more labor than anyone around these parts probably wants to admit.

Oh, a cake has been baked, alright. It’s just too bad that it’s the kind that will make you violently ill from the use of expired eggs and butter.

No. 2 – Gary Johnson’s commit sends a statement ...

ceb0humw0aaxyjl.jpg


Three things really jump out to me when I think about what happened on Friday when the Longhorns picked up a commitment from one of their top two targets remaining on the board.

a. Todd Orlando has some serious talent to work with at the linebacker position. While his boss might be telling everyone that no one on the team currently has a starting position, I have to believe deep down Orlando has every intention of putting Johnson into a position where he’s playing right away, which is understandable because Johnson might be the most ready-made impact interior linebacker prospect the Longhorns have recruited in a long time.

When you consider that the linebacker position already has as much talent as any on the team, the addition of Johnson is adding strength to strength and it’s easy to see that Orlando’s group of players might be the unit that leads this team on Saturdays in 2017.

b. Johnson’s commitment has to be a wake-up call to guys like Malik Jefferson, Jeffrey McCulloch, Anthony Wheeler, Edwin Freeman and Erick Fowler. It’s going to be survival of the fittest and if I’m in that group, I’m going to be living with Orlando in the off-season, while digesting everything that’s important to him.

c. It’s a great sign when elite-level recruits are passing up visits to the likes of USC because they are ready to jump on board after a Texas official visit. Considering this staff is behind the eight-ball in tracking so many of these players, it says quite a bit that the coaches were able to turn Johnson to Texas so quickly.

d. How about Orlando? His reputation as a recruiter is pretty non-existent, yet he’s the guy who is ultimately responsible for landing the staff’s first true impact prospect. Attaboy, Orlando. I see you working.

No. 3– Don’t look now, but ...

The Longhorns are currently ranked 34th in the Rivals.com 2017 Team Rankings with 10 days to go until National Signing Day.

From an average star ranking per prospect standpoint, The Longhorns rank 15th in the nation with an average of 3.47, which is less than a full tenth of a point behind the likes of Notre Dame, Penn State and USC.

Eight of the 15 commitments in the class are rated four-stars by Rivals and three more are high three stars.

This class still has needs that it needs to have filled, but it’s a better class than most realize and it has a chance to get in the top-20 range if it can close out strong in the final days of the 2017 window.

No. 4 – Scattershooting on the Longhorns/recruiting …


… For a guy who doesn’t say much to reporters, K’Lavon Chaisson sure loves to gush about the Longhorns online, especially with social media. If his online vibe means anything at all, he’s all Longhorn. If he chooses LSU, it’ll forever serve as a reminder that online vibes can sometimes be nothing more than someone playing the recruiting game right back at the game that tries to play them. Oddly enough, Chaisson is the only person on Twitter that I’ve ever followed that deletes his Tweets as he goes. Literally, all but one of the tweets he’s made in the last week-plus are still in existence.

Interesting update today on four-star cornerback Chevin Calloway from the Arkansas Site in the Rivals network. While he said very nice things about his visit to Arkansas this weekend, it didn’t sound like he was overwhelmed.

"It was cool," Calloway said. "At first I thought it would be weird because we're all from different states, but we all came together and had fun and laughed. When we got down to business and talked schemes and stuff everyone knew what they were talking about. It was good to come together and communicate."

He also provided an idea of what to expect from here on out.

"I'm going to take a couple of days of just getting off the high of being here," Calloway said. "Getting all this stuff thrown at me. Then I'm going to sit down and look at the pros and cons of each school.

"If there is (a decision) before signing day, I probably won't announce it before signing day, but I will let the coach know that's the school I'm going to."

… For a guy with such a monster offer list, I’m not really sure I understand the low three-star ranking for Winter Park, Florida wide receiver Jordan Pouncey. I’m going to have to find out from one of our Rivals recruiting guys why the former Notre Dame commitment is viewed so lightly. It just doesn’t make a ton of sense.

… Westfield running back Daniel Young calling his visit this weekend “pretty dope” makes me feel like I’m not as old as the birth date suggests I am. #bringprettydopeback

… In order to finish with a top-20 class, I think they probably need to finish with Chaisson, Chevin Calloway, Stephen Zabie and a couple of three-stars to give themselves a chance. That would give the Longhorns 11 four-star commitments.

No. 5 – Buy or sell …

BUY or SELL: Texas flips a big recruit nobody is expecting right now?

(Sell) I don’t think it’s completely out of the realm of possibilities, but it’s getting to be late in the game and I don’t know that a big recruit is going to suddenly change directions in the last 10 days without an official visit. I suppose Kary Vincent might represent a possibility if we’re talking about players that the majority of people don’t believe Texas will land and not candidates from left field.

BUY or SELL: Tom Herman will pick up a transfer or Juco QB before Summer?

(Sell) I believe that the staff will look around, but these rainbow unicorns are easier to find in the imagination than they are sometimes found in reality.

BUY or SELL: The high volume of OOS offers will hurt Texas with some Texas high school coaches?

(Sell) No, Herman has already established himself inside the state and has a ton of assistants with endless connections. I don’t think we’ll so much as hear a single bad word about it moving forward from coaches around the state.

BUY or SELL: This 3-4 defense will have 4 LB on the field at the same time more the 25% of the defensive snaps?

(Buy) Oh yeah.

BUY or SELL: With the most recent addition to the Texas linebacker core, Malik Jefferson becomes the outside edge blitzer he was always destined to be?

(Buy) I fully expect Todd Orlando to be very creative in his use of Jefferson this season and that will include using him as a pressure player.

BUY or SELL: Kirk Johnson is healthy by fall two a days?

(Buy) I think so. There’s very little Kirk Johnson talk this year, especially compared to last season when his name was all the rage.

BUY or SELL: Texas loses one of its current commits between now and NSD?

(Sell) This is really a question about Temple defensive end Taquan Graham and I think he’ll be a Longhorn on National Signing Day.

BUY or SELL: Bob Stoops will continue to "look the other way" and recruit known trouble-makers and allow players who have broken laws to play? Meaning the Mixon episode will zero impact on how Stoops conducts his business in Norman.

(Buy) That old dog ain’t trying to learn new tricks. I’m guessing he’ll try and make a public example out of a guy or two for optical purposes, but we know what he’s about after all these years. There are too many examples to suggest otherwise.

BUY or SELL: Is Aaron Rodgers still the most physically gifted and accurate qb ever?

(Buy) Nothing has changed.

BUY or SELL: Jurgen Klopp wins a Premier League title before Tottenham?

(Buy) In Klopp, I trust. As he continues to fine-tune the roster and find pieces that fit his style, I believe that Liverpool will take the next step ahead of the Spurs, although the Spurs have a roster that could easily prove me wrong if it ever completely comes together.

No. 6 – The day Jarrett Allen became a star …

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I think there were probably two things on the minds of at least 90 percent of the Texas fans that are still hanging with the men’s basketball team this season following Saturday’s gutsy performance in Lawrence.

“Oooooh, so this is why Jarrett Allen was rated as a five-star recruit.”

“I hope he doesn’t do what he did on Saturday too many more times this season.”

For those that missed it (and I’m guessing a lot of you did), Allen dropped 22 points, 19 rebounds and three blocks in 34 minutes of action against one of the best teams in the country on its home floor. Although it was a different kind of performance than the one Kevin Durant had in Lawrence a decade ago, it brought to mind those types of memories because of its sheer dominance in moments.

Although he’s scored in double figures in nine of his last 10 games and has averaged 16.5 points and 11.3 rebounds per game in his last four, Saturday truly seemed to represent a breakout moment for the freshman from Austin.

As he starts to show flashes of his upside, it’s hard not to wonder if he’s playing his way into possible lottery territory as an NBA draft pick and what that might mean if that kind of projection exists.

Don’t laugh.

In what is considered to be a fairly deep 2017 Draft, Allen is currently rated as the No. 23 prospect by DraftExpress.com in its updated rankings.

The vibe for most of the season has been that he’ll definitely return, but Saturday was the first time it really crossed my mind that his only season in Austin might be this disaster of a lost one, while everyone waits for Matt Coleman to arrive.

It changes the way we’re all going to watch the rest of this season, well … those of us that are still watching this 7-12 basketball team.

No. 7 – Words I never thought I’d write …

The New England Patriots better be careful because the Atlanta Falcons, led by former Texas wide receiver Kyle Shanahan, might be an unstoppable force of nature.

When Atlanta finished the regular season as one of the highest-scoring teams in NFL history, I think most people thought it was a cute story, but there weren’t a lot of people proclaiming that the Falcons were about to overwhelm the rest of the NFC like it was Bruce Leeroy and they were Sho Nuff.

Now?

Now, when someone shouts, “Who’s the master?”, you say, “Matty Ice!”

There’s actually a lesson in what we’re watching with Matt Ryan, who was never special in his first eight seasons in the NFL, but in his ninth season at the age of 31, he’s become a force of nature while surrounded by a monster supporting cast. The Falcons have waited and waited and waited for Ryan to be THAT guy and finally… after the entire Obama administration… he has arrived.

Personally, I think we’re getting ready to watch one of the all-time great Super Bowls.

Early prediction: Atlanta 37 New England 34 in overtime.

No. 8 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …

… Favorite Tweet of the Weekend


… Watch the hell out, NBA. The Golden State Warriors are starting to find their stride midway through the season and monstrous beatdowns of Cleveland, Oklahoma City and Houston this week while playing B+ games was quite the signal that the power of the Death Star might be quite immense by the time we get to May.

… Over the course of those three wins, Durant scored 91 points on 51 shots (34 of 51) and was +77 while on the floor.

… Speaking of Durant, after all of the pettiness we’ve seen from Russell Westbrook since July, can’t we all agree he made the right decision to get out of Oklahoma City? The more he swears that he’s not bothered by it all, the more it’s pretty obvious that he’s actually still pretty wrecked by what happened.

… Kawhi Leonard is so freaking good. It’s a crazy historic time in the league where he can’t get much run as a top five player in the game because of the presence of LeBron James, Kevin Durant, James Harden, Russell Westbrook and Steph Curry. If we’re talking about this year and this year alone, you have to at least move Curry out of the way to get him in that grouping.

… Joel Embiid-Related Tweet of the Weekend


… What a record-breaking goal by Wayne Rooney on Saturday to steal a result when it looked like Stoke was headed for three points. It really was a break-taking moment.

… No one is catching Chelsea. The EPL race is over. Too many teams just keep giving away too many points.

… One team that has given away points in more needless fashion than anyone this year is my beloved Liverpool. For the first time this season, I thought I was watching the Brendan Rodgers’ Reds instead of Jurgen Klopp’s Reds on Saturday. In inexplicably losing to Swansea, the Reds kissed away any real chance to try and track Chelsea down. Now this season is about staying in the top four.

… The officiating in the EPL seems to get worse each week and each of the two biggest games of the last two weeks have been decided by poor officiating decisions.

… As a pretty big UFC fan, am I allowed to admit that none of the upcoming cards really do anything for me?

… The only thing even remotely interesting about the Australian Open is the prospect of a Williams sisters making the final, whether it is Serena, Venus or both.

No. 9 – This and That ...

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Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday and after knocking Hacksaw Ridge and Lion off my “need to watch list” this week, I’m pretty sure I’ve seen all of the films that will earn Best Picture nominations.

Unless Nocturnal Animals makes the cut.

Of the top 11 favorites in the incredibly historically accurate AwardsCircuit.com, I’ve knocked out 10 of the top 11 favorites out of the way with more than a month to go until Oscars Night.

Personally, I think it’s been a pretty exceptional year of movies. In fact, it’s been such a good year that when it comes to Best Picture, I’m kind of torn between four or five different films and since walking out of Lion this weekend, I’m more confused than ever about the order of the top films.

Therefore, before I give my updated rankings, here’s what’s been floating around in my head for the last few days (without giving away spoilers).

a. Lion completely knocked me over, head over heels. I don’t know that this has ever happened to me while watching a movie, but I pretty much had tears rolling down my cheeks for two straight hours. Maybe it connected with me to such a degree because I’m a parent to two young children, but at one point I could hear what seemed like a dozen people around me who were audibly impacted. Yes, I could hear people crying in the movie. It’s just a beautiful piece of cinema in almost every way.

b. There’s a part of me that wonders if we’ve all overrated La-la Land because we’re completely in love with Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone as an on-screen couple. It’s a wonderfully fun movie that made me feel happy while watching it, there’s so much to like, but I find myself torn over the question of whether it’s a special movie. As someone who is married to a woman that has spent her life obsessing over Gene Kelly movies, I’ve seen enough of them to know that the performance levels in the truly all-time great musicals surpasses what Gosling and Strong are capable of.

c. I’m going to get some pushback on this, but I just didn’t love Moonlight. Don’t get me wrong, it has some incredibly special qualities and the first ⅔ of the movie is the stuff of an Oscars winner, but I just didn’t feel like the movie closes the show in a way that holds up the same quality of the first two segments. There’s such a drastic jump in the final section of the movie and there was just too much unexplained about a main character that I feel like the audience is completely invested in. I just had so many questions (in a distracting way) when the movie was over and none were answered.

d. Although Manchester by the Sea is one of the most depressing movies of all-time, Casey Affleck’s performance is hauntingly awesome, so much so that I volunteered for a second viewing so that my wife could see it, in part because I was so wowed by all of the little moments inside his performance that impacted me as a viewer. I got into a mini-debate about the movie with a couple this weekend and I found myself rattling off about 10 scenes that stood out to me as “moments” throughout the movie.

e. Andrew Garfield isn’t going to win, but you can make the case that he should be nominated in the Best Actor category twice.

f. The most underrated performance of the year is Jessica Chastain in Miss Sloane.

g. Dev Patel should win Best Supporting Actor and it’s not even close. Same with Viola Davis in Best Supporting Actress.

Ok, here’s my updated list based on movies that I have seen.

(Still need to see: 20th Century Woman, Captain Fantastic, Elle, Loving, Jackie and Nocturnal Animals

Best Picture

1. Lion
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. Arrival
4. Silence
5. La-la Land
6. Moonlight
7. Hacksaw Ridge
8. Fences
9. Hidden Figures
10. Hell or High Water

Best Actor

1. Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
2. Denzel Washington (Fences)
3. Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
4. Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
5. Andrew Garfield (Silence)

Best Actress

1. Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane)
2. Emma Stone (La La Land))
3. Amy Adams (Arrival)
4. Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures)
5. Marion Cotillard (Allied)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Dev Patel (Lion)
2. Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
3. Issey Ogata (Silence)
4. Andre Holland (Moonlight)
5. Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Viola Davis (Fences)
2. Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
3. Naomi Harris (Moonlight)
4. Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures))
5. Lupita Nyong’o (Queen of Katwe)

Best Director

1. Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
2. Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
3. Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
4. Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
5. Garth Davis (Lion)

No. 10 - And finally …

God bless this wonderful country of ours.

With all that took place over the weekend, I couldn't help but think of words once spoken by Ronald Reagan.

"Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn't pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same."
Thanks man, good post.
I still think there is a diamond out there waiting until NSD to come out. Let's hope I am right. JUCO QB - I just don't see any noise about prospectives - who knows.
I understand that the current set of kids need to relearn how to win - note I said relearn, with a good signing year comes winners - and I think TH and staff will do it.
Hook Em.
 
That's a reasonable looking 9 win total, especially since we get Okie Lite and K State in Austin. It assumes we lose to USC, Okie and West Virginia.
TCU is certainly beatable in Amon Carter. WV get Skyler Howard back but lose RB Wendell Smallwood and a bunch of talent, so I wouldn't give up on that game, though we likely lose a winnable game somewhere along the schedule...might win a surprise or two as well.

The difference in Charlie having Swoopes and true freshman Heard vs Herman having Sophomore starter Shane and true fish Sam after going thru a spring is enormous. The difference in those two situations is easily worth 1-3 wins. We were horrible with Swoopes and Heard, even with a solid D that year. Neither could consistently complete a pass.

If Sam is healthy and gets a full spring in, I doubt he redshirts, more likely he backs up Shane while Merrick pulls 3rd string duty. Don't know where Heard winds up but his passing ability is limited and if he is interested in NFL he stays at receiver.

Also our D is talented and a year older...not that young anymore but talented. Under Orlando there should be immediate improvement. Getting Johnson gives us a great set of LBs to work with (obviously important in a 3-4). We need a couple of young DL to step up but we've certainly got the numbers there to find a couple. Secondary is talented though they need to focus back as they did as freshmen. Holton Hill has NFL talent at CB, and Davis and Boyd are experienced and not far behind in talent. Boyd obviously had the best year last year, but if Hill focuses he can be All Big 12. Similar with Davis. All experienced, as is safety.

Better, more experienced OL, tons of WR talent and best talent at QB since Colt (even with the nagging injuries Shane had as true freshman he still broke many of Colt's records as RS freshman).

A healthy, slimmer Warren could be a hoss. New talent coming as well as Kirk Johnson and Porter coming back.

It's a different world with Herman and more experienced talent. 9-3 or even 8-4 gets us into a solid bowl and starts Herman's first real class off with a big haul. Future is bright.

Next year is a huge unknown until at least after spring, but I put the over/under at 8.5 right now. We'll see.

I realize and watched Charlie and his teams let us down repeatedly, but coaching matters, so do QBs, and we have better talent both as a coaching staff and QBs.

I think some are actually underselling the difference Herman and staff will have on this team next season. No lack of talent.

With Herman, if the heart of the team buys in, this team could easily be one of the surprise teams we see every year around the country.

Solid breakdown
 
It changes the way we’re all going to watch the rest of this season, well … those of us that are still watching this 7-12 basketball team.
=====================================================================

Yeah, wake me up when its over. I'll think about getting interested in Jerritt Allen when he's still playing in Austin next year...if that actually happens.
 
Herman has a very young roster (they weren't losers in high school) and that according to the experts were top ten classes. He will win right away. The work left to do fits his strengths.
No one said they were losers in high school. That's not the issue.
 
Excellent thoughts with point #1. Point #2: With Johnson in the middle all the talk is about Jefferson; however, I am interested in what they are going to do with Fowler who may be better than Jefferson. It will be interesting to see how he lines up Hager and Roach, who may be better football players than Jefferson. Also, will this move Freeman back to safety where we have a need. Speaking of safety, Johnnie Johnson said his son, Kirk, would probably be a better safety than running back. Something to think about since Carter and Young are going to vie for playing time immediately. Point #3: We wind up surprising people, because the class may be small, but may have 10-12 multi-year contributors. #6: Allen is growing up before our very eyes and it is fun to watch regardless of the record.

One final note: Brady>>Rodgers who is the 2nd best qb to ever play for GB.
a. Don't give up on Jefferson.
b. Johnson needs to get healthy and stay healthy.
c. Favre isn't better than Rodgers. Come on...
 
@Ketchum, not sure what your seeing in Arrival. Don't get me wrong, it's a good movie but definitely not award winning level, nor is Amy Adam's performance. I think Contact was a better film.
a. Never really liked Contact.
b. Both Arrival and Amy gets noms tomorrow IMO.
 
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@Ketchum i see what your doing with your Pool and Chelsea comments and I'm gonna need you to stop it right now. Pool looks like a Rodgers coached team, Chelsea isn't getting caught, I'm not buying those are your real thoughts. I think your trying some Jedi mind games the 10 days before the biggest game of the season and I'm not falling for it.
Easy there. I thought it looked like a Rodgers team on Saturday. I wouldn't say that beyond that one game, even if the form has dipped.
 
The Embiid point differential is pretty unreal! Point differential of a 56 win team when he's on the court versus the point differential of an 11 win team when he's off the court?
craziest stat of the year IMO
 
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