It's funny to think that two weeks ago to the day, Steve Sarkisian and his merry band of recruiting vultures were sitting on five commitments in the 2023 recruiting class.
Fifty-one days had passed since they had landed a commitment. More than 70 days had passed since the staff had landed a commitment on the defensive side of the ball.
That was on June 12. With momentum boosted into the stratosphere by a simple commit from 5-star quarterback Arch Manning, things are quite different.
The commitment number now sits at nine, but the reality is that a flood of commitments is expected in very short order and it's pretty easy to close your eyes and imagine the foundation of the 2023 recruiting class looking like this:
QB (1): Arch Manning
RB: (2): Cedric Baxter and Tre Wisner
WR (4): Ryan Niblett, Johntay Cook, Jonah Wilson and Mikal Harrison-Pilot
TE (2): William Randle and Spencer Shannon
OL (3): Connor Stroh, Jaydon Chatman and Andre Cojoe
DE (1) Dylan Spencer
LB (3) Liona Lefau, S'Maje Burrell and Derion Gullette
DB (1) Jamel Johnson
* Bold indicates prospect has committed to Texas
Folks, that's 17 kids right there. All you have to do was blink and the Longhorns are suddenly in a position where most of the heavy lifting in the 2023 class is complete and all that's left to do is wait on a few 5-star defenders, maybe another 5-star level wide receiver or any other national top-50 prospect that wants an invite to the party.
Quarterback = done
Running back = done
Tight Ends = done
Realistically, the Longhorns could be down to the following group of prospects:
WR - Jaquaize Pettaway (Langham Creek)
WR - Jalen Hale (Longview)
OT - Trevor Goosby (Melissa)
DT - Markis Deal (Naaman Forest)
DE - David Hicks Jr. (Katy Paetow)
DE - Hunter Osborne (Trussville, Alabama)
DE - Colton Vasek (Austin Westlake)
DE - Billy Walton (South Oak Cliff)
DE - Braylan Shelby (Friendswood)
LB - Anthony Hill (Denton Ryan)
CB - Javien Toviano (Arlington Martin)
CB - Malik Muhammed (South Oak Cliff)
S - Derek Williams (New Iberia, La)
Give or take a name or two.
A few things are abundantly clear at this point.
a. No matter how much I scream from the rafters that the Longhorns should be a little more stingy with their takes in the name of saving as many slots as possible for high-end portal transfers after December, the incoming acquisitions for 2023 are going to be super-heavy with high school kids. With the 25-man number no longer a thing, the Longhorns look dead-set on going way beyond 25 high school prospects in this class.
b. Sarkisian is preparing for more heavy attrition. By our current count, the Longhorns will have 15 seniors departing following the season (unless any of those eligible for a COVID re-do year cash in that chip), which would leave them with 15 available incoming players. In order to take 30 incoming players (a safe bet at this point), the Longhorns will need to lose an additional 15 players through attrition in the next 15+ months. That's not an incredible number in the attrition world, but it's not small, either. In fact, given the attrition that has taken place in the last 12 months, it's fairly large.
c. By the time we get to September, this staff is going to have a ton of time to focus on kids in the Portal and 2024 recruiting.
No. 2 - A glance at the recruiting board ...
No. 3 - Of the 13 commitments ...
Most of you know how I feel about recruiting after all of the historical analysis I've done over the last few years.
If a guy isn't in the national top-70 or so, he falls into the tier of prospects that comes with a one-in-five success rate at best.
The players that are 100-percent in that neighborhood are Arch Manning, Ryan Niblett and Dylan Spencer (see section 5 for specific reasoning on his profile).
To the naked eye, the remaining 10 commitments fall into the category of players that get drafted by NFL teams at a 15-20% rate for the most part. Development is the name of the game with this tier of prospects. If the math says that two of the 10 are likely to develop into NFL players, the Longhorns need to be squeezing three or four into NFL players. The fine margins in development are usually the difference between winning championships and forever talking about winning championships.
No. 4 - More Arch and 2023 Recruiting Scattershooting ...
.... Looks like some of my intel was just off by a week. If you'll remember, back in May I had been hearing that a massive wave of commitments was anticipated in the week before Arch Manning's visit. As it turns out, the commitment wave came in June, but it was a little more than a week off with regards to the timing. Quite a few of the commits coming UT's way in the last week and into the next week have been planned for a while.
... This data is stunning. The number is up to 231K+. When it's all said and done, it might eclipse No. 2 by more than 200,000 likes.
... Don't let anyone try to tell you that Quinn Ewers is a negative in the eyes of Manning and vice versa. Unless Ewers fails to take off, there's expected to be no more than one season of overlap between the two and Manning is very open to the idea of using that one season as a redshirt year.
... The real battle beneath the starters in 2023 and going into 2024 will take place between Maalik Murphy and Manning. Do not discount Murphy or the advantage that the additional year might give him, especially if he can take some practice reps away from Hudson Card during the 2022 season.
... As things currently stand, the Longhorns are scheduled to go into the 2023 season with 17 offensive linemen on the roster and that number is expected to grow in the coming weeks. There will be attrition and it'll likely come from players that lose placement on the two-deep over the course of the next 12 months.
... How young is this offensive line? In terms of eligibility, only Christian Jones and Junior Angilau are scheduled to leave the program in the next 24 months. Fourteen of the 16 currently on campus are sophomores or freshmen.
No. 5 - Historical trends: In-State Defensive Ends ...
It's been a couple of years since I've updated the data I've compiled regarding the defensive end position within the state of Texas.
Given that this column already has a lot of verbiage, let's just get right to the updated findings.
Let's look at the five-stars.
2003 - Jarvis Moss (Florida)
2006 - Eddie Jones (Texas)
2008 - R.J. Washington (Oklahoma)
2009 - Alex Okafor (Texas)
2010 - Jackson Jeffcoat (Texas)
2014 - Myles Garrett (Texas A&M)
2019 - DeMarvion Leal (Texas A&M)
Breakdown
* 4 of the 7 players (57.1%) were drafted by NFL teams: Moss (1st round), Okafor (4th round), Garrett (1st round) and Leal (2nd round)
* 5 of the 7 players (71.4%) played on Sundays in the NFL: Moss, Okafor, Jeffcoat, Garrett and Leal
* Tunmise Adeleye (Texas A&M) is the only current active college player with a five-star grade.
Now let's look at the high four stars:
2004 - Chris Smith (Texas A&M)
2007 - Richetti Jones (Oklahoma State)
2010 - Reggie Wilson (Texas)
2014 - Soloman Thomas (Stanford)
2016 - Brandon Bowen (TCU)
Breakdown
* One of the 6 players (16.7%) were drafted by NFL teams: Thomas (1st round)
* Texas A&M's Shemar Turner (2021) is the only current high four star that is active.
Mid Four Stars
2005 - Paul Freeney (Texas A&M)
2008 - McKInner Dixon (Texas Tech)
2012 - Javonte Magee (Baylor)
2013 - Jake Raulerson (Texas)
2014 - Derick Roberson (Texas)
2015 - James Lockhart (Texas A&M)
2016 - Justin Madubuike (Texas A&M)
2017 - K'Lavon Chaisson (LSU)
Breakdown
* 2 of the 8 players (25.0%) were drafted by NFL teams: Madubuike and Chaisson
Low Four Stars
2004 - Alan Davis (Oklahoma)
2004 - Brian Orakpo (Texas)
2004 - McCollins Umeh (Arizona)
2004 - Tremaine Johnson (LSU)
2005 - Marcus Shavers (Arkansas)
2005 - Jonathan Lewis (Kansas State)
2006 - Ugo Chinasa (Oklahoma State)
2006 - Jeremy Beal (Oklahoma)
2007 - Von Miller (Texas A&M)
2007 - Russell Carter (Texas)
2008 - Emmanuel Stephens (Ole Miss)
2008 - Andrew Worlridge (Texas A&M)
2008 - Tony Jerod (Texas A&M)
2008 - David King (Oklahoma)
2008 - Kapron Lewis-Moore (UCLA)
2009 - Tevin Mims (Texas)
2009 - Michael Brockers (LSU)
2010 - Greg Daniels (Texas)
2010 - Jackson Richards (Texas Tech)
2011 - Cedric Reed (Texas)
2011 - Nathan Hughes (Oklahoma)
2012 - Devonte Fields (TCU)
2012 - Hassan Ridgeway (Texas)
2012 - Michael Starts (Texas Tech)
2012 - Danielle Hunter (LSU)
2013 - Torrodney Prevot (Oregon)
2013 - Daeshon Hall (Texas A&M)
2015 - Charles Omenihu (Texas)
2015 - Devonte Fields (Louisville)
2016 - Isaiah Chambers (TCU)
2016 - Mark Jackson (Oklahoma)
2017 - LaGaryonn Carson (Unsigned)
2017 - Jayden Peevy (Texas A&M)
2018 - Joseph Ossai (Texas)
2018 - Bobby Brown (Texas A&M)
Breakdown
* 12 of the 35 players (34.3%) were drafted by NFL teams: Orakpo (1st round), Beal (7th round), Miller (1st round), King (7th round), Lewis-Moore (6th round), Brockers (1st round), Ridgeway (4th round), Hunter (3rd round), Hall (3rd round), Omenihu (5th round), Ossai (3rd round) and Brown (4th round)
Overall thoughts...
* The defensive end position ranks as one of the strongest bets of any position in the state of Texas when it comes to 4- and 5-star prospects. From 2004-2018, an eye-popping 32.1% of all 4- and 5-star prospects at the defensive end position were drafted by NFL teams. Nearly 40% have played on Sundays.
* Of the 4- and 5-star defensive end prospects that Rivals has ranked in its history that have completed their eligibility, only six prospects have ever officially been under the 6-3 mark in terms of height. Of those six, only Jeremy Beal was ever drafted or played in the NFL. While he was a heck of a college player, his draft status (seventh round) kind of makes him the Zach Thomas of defensive ends. Yes, a 6-2 or under player can emerge as a big-time college player, but in the history of the Rivals rankings ... only one player from Texas has ever pulled it off. As it relates to the Longhorns, one of the biggest defensive busts of this decade was Reggie Wilson (Class of 2010), who tipped the scales at 6-2. His ranking suggested he was a unicorn, but it's likely that we just didn't have enough data in front of us to know what was being asked of him in the context of the ranking he was given.
* 15 of the 19 defensive prospects from the state of Texas that went on to become drafted NFL players were listed at 6-4 or above in their Rivals profiles. In fact, more than 42% of all 4- and 5-star defensive ends that tipped the scales at greater than 6-4 were drafted by NFL teams.
There are really three big takeaways from the near-decades worth of data.
1. Anyone 6-3 and under is unlikely to hit, but if it has a chance of hitting, it'll come in the form of a larger physical specimen. Pass-rushing, undersized tweeners need not apply unless their name is Von Miller.
2. If you're going to be in a 6-4, 220-pound(ish) frame, you better be a physical freak like a Brian Orakpo, Jarvis Moss or K'Lavon Chaisson.
3. Any 4- and 5-star defensive end prospect from Texas that sits above 6-4, 230 pounds, hits at a very high rate.
Texas defensive end commitment Dylan Spencer is probably the second-highest sure thing prospect in the class when you consider that his physical stature (6-5, 250) puts him into the tier of prospects that hits at close to a 55% historical success rate. With the defensive end position in the state of Texas, the ranking matters a lot less than the frame and body size of the prospect.
No. 6 - Soon to be retired: No.17 ...
Ivan Melendez is officially the first Texas Longhorn to ever win the Golden Spikes Award. He's as fully qualified for a number-retiring as it gets.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Buy) Texas signed one five star and two high four star prospects in the Rivals rankings in 2022. I expect those numbers to double.
(Sell) Hill, very possibly a yes. It's too soon to get carried away about Hicks.
(Sell) One of the two is most likely. Muhammad is the smart money at this point.
(Sell) He's a long way away from being a top five pick.
(Buy) As I said earlier, I'm not sure I see this thing slowing down at 25.
(Buy) Probably.
This isn't really a Buy or Sell question, but I'll take it this one time. I think Manning would perfectly fine against the competition, but there's no question that it would be better for his development to see teams like that every other week.
Thanks for the kind words! We appreciate them.
(Sell) If you mean they will both be Longhorns until they are no longer playing college football, sure. If you mean they'll each stay more than three seasons, the answer is no. I expect Ewers to leave after the 2023 season.
(Sell) I'm not sure how to quantify its importance, but I don't think Texas was dead in the waster without the class. It certainly helped, but I wouldn't view it as a deal-breaker or deal-maker.
(Buy) Yeah, I guess.
(Sell) I'll buy a finalist, but I'm not ready to quite go so far as to say Texas will definitely win one.
(Buy) He's very, very happy.
(Buy) As a collective staff, yes. As a head coach, definitely. There are still a few weaker links.
(Buy) It kind of remains to be seen, but I'll lean into the momentum.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the sports weekend ...
... From last four in to last team standing with a championship trophy for life ... congrats to Ole Miss baseball.
... That eighth inning for the Sooners on Sunday ... woof.
.... I might ... MIGHT ... watch game six of the Stanley Cup Playoffs tonight.
... Is a three-pitcher no-hitter more impressive as a feat than it is an embarrassment for the team that gets no hit? It's just hard for a multiple-pitcher no-hitter to mean much to me, no offense to the Astros who no-hit the Yankees at Yankees Stadium on Saturday.
... T-minus less than 12 months before Kevin Durant asks for Brooklyn to trade him.
... What were the Cleveland Browns thinking when they traded for DeShaun Watson?
... Really could have done without Bryce Harper fracturing his thumb this weekend. That might be the sign that it's time for me to mentally move on from baseball season.
... Not gonna lie ... I'll watch Gareth Bale at LAFC.
... Austin FC might not be the best team in MLS, but they've got a ton of guts. Down 2-0 this weekend, Team Verge game back for a 2-2 draw.
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Jeff Bridges movies ...
In honor of perhaps my new favorite TV show of 2023 (The Old Man), I figured it was time to give The Dude his love with a Top 10 list.
If you haven't seen Jeff Bridges' new Fx show on Hulu, just imagine the US government coming after Jason Bourne after he's retired with a family and starting to wonder if he's suffering from dementia.
It's damn good.
Honorable mention: White Squall, Tucker: The Man and His Dream, The Fabulous Baker Boys and Against All Odds
10. True Grit
I know a lot of people will have this one ranked much higher, but it isn't among my very favorite performance by Bridges. Don't get me wrong, it's a perfectly good movie, but I've seen it once and never really returned to it.
9. Starman
It's been a long time since I've watched this movie, but when I was a kid in the 80s, it was a cable television mainstay. Low-key ... it's a top three John Carpenter movie for me.
8. The Last American Hero
A movie based on NASCAR legend Junior Johnson, it has a little bit of everything in it, including a very young Gary Busey.
7. American Heart
One of the better early 90s dramas that seems to have been forgotten by the general public.
6. Thunderbolt and Lightfoot
Bridges + Clint Eastwood + Geoffrey Lewis + George Kennedy _ Gary Busey
5. The Fisher King
It's easy to think of this as a Robin Williams movie, but I'd argue that Bridges is the soul of the movie. It's crazy to think that it's been 31 years since this movie came out.
4. The Last Picture Show
The original Bridges calling card, at least when I was a kid.
3. Crazy Heart
Do I have this too high? Maybe, but I'm a sucker for a movie about a washed up music star just trying to stay up on his feet.
2. Hell or High Water
Do I have this too high? I'd rank it as one of the best movies of the last decade and one of the best heist movies of all-time.
1. The Big Lebowski
The rug really tied the room together.
No. 10 - And Finally ...
I have five Instant Analysis pieces that are written and ready to go for the coming hours and days. Yet, I keep wondering if I need to write two more...
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