Once upon a time ... say four months ago ... there was a plan with Arch Manning.
It went a little something like this:
a. Quinn Ewers would emerge as one of the best young quarterbacks in college football in his first season as a starter in 2022.
b. While Ewers was putting the finishing touches of his second and final season in Austin, Manning would take his time getting acclimated to college football, with a redshirt season in the realm of possibilities.
c. Ewers turns pro after the 2023 season.
d. Manning becomes the starter in 2024.
Well, you know what they say about best-laid plans ...
Not only did Ewers not ascend to "rising star status" during the 2022 season, but there are questions now about whether Ewers can hit his own goal of being able to turn pro next season. For as much arm talent as Ewers owns, it's hard to imagine that he'll be ready for the NFL in 12 months. It's not an impossibility, but it feels like a lot to ask.
One thing that is much more certain is that Manning will almost certainly be the starter in 2024. I asked nearly a dozen people in and around the program this week about the quarterback starter in 2024 and every single person strongly stated that Manning is the guy when the 2024 season rolls around.
"Arch is not signing with us to sit until 2025," one source stated. "And we're not bringing him in to sit until 2025."
Well, if you are also one of those people that believe Manning is going to be the starter in 2024, it makes answering the question of what might happen in 2023 a little more difficult to pin down, especially when you consider that Sarkisian has stated that he plans to open the competition at the position going into the spring.
Personally, I think it makes a lot of sense that Ewers would be the starter in 2023 when you consider what was invested in him during the 2022 season. He's beaten OU. He's started and won on the road. He's got a lot to do this offseason, but he will have some definite edges over Manning and redshirt freshman Maalik Murphy.
That being said, there's no getting around the fact that Manning appears to be the most important player in the program for the future. You get the sense that a lot of things might happen over the next few years, but Manning entering the Portal one day because he can't get on the field doesn't feel like one of them.
So, what does all of this mean for Ewers?
It's hard to say. Obviously, he's going to have to win the job again this spring and there's a world out there where re-winning the job might be tougher than winning it the first time. Just ask Hudson Card. If he plays really, really well in the 2023 season, he might just go ahead and turn pro. After all, that's been the plan from the moment Ewers left Southlake Carroll before his senior season in high school. He wanted to get that eligibility clock started as soon as possible.
If he makes only marginal progress in the next 12 months, it seems pretty clear what will happen in the following year. But, what if he's somewhere in between marginal progress and being ready for the NFL Draft? What happens if he's honorable mention all-Big 12 with a very Sam Ehlinger-like 155.0-ish passing efficiency number?
Try as we might to avoid the thought running around in our minds, it does kind of remind of the situation the Longhorns found themselves in back in 1999 when Chris Simms arrived on campus at a time when Major Applewhite was only a sophomore. The "plan" was to win titles with Simms in 2001 and 2002, which impacted the way Mack Brown and his staff handled the position during the 2000 season.
Honestly, I'm just thinking out loud at the moment over a situation that isn't crystal clear because things didn't go according to plan. Sources have told Orangebloods that Murphy and Manning will get every chance to push Ewers for the starting job. The passing offense at the end of the 2022 season is such that Sarkisian really has no choice.
What is in store for us all in 2023?
It's tough to say exactly, but we know what's going to happen in 2024.
Keep that in mind for the next 12 months. That particular piece of the puzzle might be the kind of thing that eventually leads us to figuring out the rest of the puzzle pieces.
No. 2 - Worthy's Best Option?
I don't get the sense that Xavier Worthy wants to leave Texas. He digs his coach. He digs the team. He digs the city.
He just doesn't know if he digs the quarterback situation and the passing offense, which feels completely fair.
Unless he just wants to get the hell on out of Dodge, doesn't it make sense to go through the spring and see how the Texas quarterback situation looks after the spring?
The next window once the first Portal window closes in January is from May 1-15. He'll have a lot more information on everything around him if he just kicks the can on a decision down the road.
It's a win-win.
He gets to be where he's happy and Sarkisian gets a chance to prove to him that the passing offense will be better.
No. 3 - Five quick thoughts on the Alamo Bowl ...
* Take the over. We're talking about two high-scoring teams, as the two average 76.5 points per game between them. The Huskies come in averaging the fourth-most in the country at 40.8.
* The Huskies are hot, having won their last six games, including wins over Oregon and Oregon State.
* The Huskies throw the ball A LOT. Michael Penix Jr. has thrown it more than 40 times on seven occasions and 50+ times on three occasions. The Huskies come into this game with a major quarterback advantage on paper.
* The Huskies are pretty good at defending the run, as the defense ranks 33rd in the nation by allowing 127 yards per game. This defense isn't anything special, but the area to take advantage of them all season has been through the passing game. The Huskies rank 111th in pass efficiency defense. Xavier Worthy should have a big game.
* Washington leads the nation on third downs with a 57.1% conversion rate. Texas ranks 78th in the nation in defensive third down rates by allowing 39.7%.
No. 4 - Biggest Portal Needs ...
If you're Steve Sarkisian, you'll almost certainly take any player (if there's room) that upgrades the program. Yet, there are some positions on the two-deep that need more attention than others.
Let's rank them in order of importance.
1. Starting Linebacker
There are nearly 1,200 snaps that need to be filled in from the season that just ended and the linebackers that are scheduled to depart. Yes, Jaylan Ford is expected to return and he gives the Longhorns a fantastic foundation at the position, but a proven player would be a critical need, even if the Longhorns close on 5-star Anthony Hill. There's just enough talent in the linebacker unit at the moment.
2. Starting Wide Receiver
There's no way of knowing what Xavier Worthy will do and you can't completely count on Isaiah Neyor coming off of a major knee injury. The Longhorns didn't have nearly enough contribution from this position in 2022, so even with Johntay Cook on the way, this position needs an injection of plus-level talent.
3. Starting Edge
The Longhorns have a lot of guys with high upside competing for playing time at the edge, but they don't have a single proven player looking to fill the 600+ snaps that Ovie Oghoufo filled this season. Of course, finding a true upgrade at the edge position is easier said than done because plus-edge players don't grow on trees.
4. Starting Right Tackle
Are you completely confident that Cam Williams will be ready to be the full-time starter in 2022 after playing limited snaps this season? Why not find someone that can fill this position for a season and then let Williams start after he's added a little more seasoning?
5. Starting Punter
This might be too low on the list. With Danny Trejo gone, Texas has to find a replacement.
6. Starting level linebacker (No. 2)
As I mentioned, the Longhorns need to boost the talent and depth at this position. The Longhorns didn't have enough players at linebacker a year ago and now 80 percent of those that played are gone.
7. Starting defensive back
The Longhorns are losing a couple of starters and the depth at the position leaves a lot to be desired. If you could come out of this with a safety to replace Anthony Cook, that would prove to be a nice way to improve this group.
8. Starting level wide receiver (No. 2)
More and more playmakers. The faster and more proven the better.
No. 5 - Portal Rankings ...
Although the "Best Available" list is expected to change quite a bit once the Portal officially opens on Monday, here's an early look at what is available at key positions of need at this moment.
Wide Receivers
1. Dominic Lovett (Missouri)
2. Dont'e Thornton (Oregon)
3. Drae McCray(Austin Peay)
4. Andrew Armstrong (Texas A&M-Commerce)
5. Nate McCollum (Georgia Tech)
6. Ali Jennings (Old Dominion)
7. Traeshon Holdon (Alabama)
8. Makai Jackson (St. Francis)
9. Rara Thomas (Mississippi State)
10. Grant DuBose (Charlotte)
Offensive tackles
1. Myles Hinton (Stanford)
2. Ajani Cornelius (Rhode Island)
3. Dameon George (Alabama)
4. Casey Roddick (Colorado)
Edge
1. Duson McCulloch (Indiana)
2. Tunmise Adeleye (Texas A&M)
3. Stephen Herron (Stanford)
Linebackers
1. Levani Damuni (Stanford)
2. Justin Wright (Tulsa)
3. Antonio Grier Jr. (South Florida)
Defensive backs
1. Jonathan Gill (Stanford)
2. Myles Slusher (Arkansas)
3. Denver Harris (Texas A&M)
4. Fred Davis (Clemson)
5. Avery Helm Jr. (Florida)
6. Avantae Williams (Miami)
No. 6 - The best player in college football ...
It's Bijan Robinson.
I watched a lot of football this weekend and none of the players in the championship weekend were better than him.
Forget about team success ... who is the most outstanding player?
1. RB - Bijan Robinson (Texas)
2. QB - Caleb Williams (USC)
3. QB - CJ Stroud (Ohio State)
4. QB - Max Duggan (TCU)
5. QB - Bryce Young (Alabama)
No. 7 - National Title or Bust ...
The Texas volleyball team is within 4 wins of the national title that would be fitting for a team that carried the No.1 ranking for most of the season.
No. 4 seed Marquette is next and a win would see them face the winner of No. 2 Minnesota and No. 3 Ohio State.
The Longhorns beat both teams in four sets earlier in the season.
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) I don't think it matters. With Sark's reputation on offense and the NIL money Texas has available, they don't seem to have an issue with receivers having an interest.
(Sell) I kind of feel the same.
(Buy) Winning the last game of the season always helps. It's the last impression.
(Buy) It's go-time for Ewers, who will almost certainly be doubted more in this off-season than he ever has been in his life. It's the most important off-season of his life.
(Sell) Every coach trusts his culture. That's not a good enough barometer. The thing about Harris is that he's out of leverage after this transfer, so he needs to get it right as much as the coaching staff involved if he wants to be playing major college football. I'd probably take the chance on his talent because he's a future NFL player on paper. I'd lay out expectations, but his culture didn't change Jahleel Billingsley or Agiye Hall's personalities this season.
(Sell) I think there's a better chance that he sits out the bowl than there is of him coming back.
(Sell) I'm going to say he plays.
(Buy) I have a hard time arguing for the other teams.
(Buy) You forced me into an answer, but I don't feel good about it.
(Buy) That seems doable.
(Buy) No hesitation.
(Buy) And there's nothing wrong with that.
(Buy) That's probably the right order based on the way the season ended.
(Sell) I'm not sure I believe that at all.
No. 9 - Scattershooting on anything and everything ...
... If I had a vote that mattered ...
1. Georgia
2 Michigan
3. Ohio State
4. TCU
5. Alabama
6. Clemson
7. Utah
8. Kansas State
9. Tennessee
10. USC
... Props to Kansas State, man. That program has no right to be winning a Big 12 championship and they have won two since Texas last won one. I've got nothing but respect for that team after it went into Arlington and handled its business against a TCU team with everything to play for.
... Max Duggan has to come back next year, right? Why would you want to end the best timeframe of your entire life if you can extend it? Life will never be better than while he's the starting quarterback at TCU.
... USC beats Utah on Friday night if Caleb Williams doesn't hurt his hamstring.
... Cam Rising balled his butt off on Friday night. Tip of the cap. Same to Ja'Quinden Jackson. It's ironic to think it was a couple of Longhorns that kept USC out of the playoffs.
... The Cade Klubnik era is officially underway in Death Valley after his performance in the ACC Championship game. It's his program now.
... Mack Brown had a chance to win a third conference title and his team laid a huge egg in the process. I wish that was the first time I had seen that.
... Ohio State is going to be a dangerous team against Georgia. It's not often that the Buckeyes get to play the underdog and vindication cards at the same time in the mental build-up to a game. Give me the Buckeyes and the points.
... Tulane is 11-2 and beat Kansas State in Manhattan. Watch out, USC.
... I will watch the Duluth Trading Cure Bowl on December 16th. Give me some Troy vs. UTSA.
... Donovan Edwards might be better than Blake Corum.
... Folks, don't look now, but Dan Campbell's Detroit Lions are 5-7 and have won four of their last 5 games.
... I'm starting to think the Philadelphia Eagles are really good.
... The Texans are so bad that they lost to the Browns by two touchdowns on a day when DeShaun Watson was awful. It just didn't matter.
... I'm not quite sure how to feel about the USMNT going out in the round of 16. On one hand, that was probably the right round for the Americans to go out in, but on the other hand the way we went out was disheartening. Just piss poor man-marking and defending. The fact that we don't have anyone to bang in goals sucks, but not more than conceding such poor goals to a Dutch team that must have thought it was Christmas a few weeks early.
... Jude Bellingham is some kind of midfielder. Please Santa, all I want for Christmas is that kid to land at Liverpool this summer.
... Kylian Mbappe isn't far away from being a household word across the world. I'm not talking in soccer households. I'm talking about all households.
No. 10 - The List: Top 10 Fleetwood Mac songs...
With the passing of Christine McVie this week, it felt like a good time to do a Fleetwood Mac list, even if the list is very Stevie Nicks heavy.
Rest in peace, Christine.
10. Little Lies
9. Sara
8. Gypsy
7. Gold Dust Woman
6. Rhiannon
5. Everywhere
4. Landslide
3. The Chain
2. Go Your Own Way
1. Dreams
