Colin Simmons ahead of Trey Moore, already + Week 4 Power Ratings

CodyCarpentier

every like is another Jonathon Brooks rushing yard
Gold Member
Nov 25, 2023
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Charleston, SC
www.rosterwatch.com
Happy Victory Monday III 🤘

Despite the UTSA game result (56-7) being expected by all of the writers at Orangebloods, including yours truly. It's still nice to see the expectation come to fruition and not leave you wondering if your eyes were deceiving you the first two weeks. If Michigan, maybe just isn't that good (they did just narrowly beat Arkansas State by 10 after all). Or god forbid we fall victim to the sugar in the vaunted Orange Kool-Aid, getting over our skis on expectations from beating the breaks off of the defending national champions. That wasn't the case.

From start to finish on Saturday, Texas had the game in hand and was able to manipulate UTSA on almost every snap (well, outside of that 53-yard rushing touchdown). Texas lost the time of possession battle, but that can be easily explained with the fact that the Roadrunners ran the football 4 more times than Texas did, averaging just 3.3 yards per carry. In fact, if you take away that one explosive run of 53 yards that saw Alfred Collins get washed down and quit (@Alex Dunlap), and David Gbenda misread and not fill the gap. UTSA would hypothetically have finished with 75 yards on 38 carries, good for 1.97 yards per carry. Abysmal.

Historical Fact: For the first time since the 1977 Season, Texas has won at least two of its first three games by at least 7 touchdowns (49+ points). In 1977, the Longhorns beat Boston College 44-0, Virginia 68-0, and Rice 72-15 on their way to an 11-1 season that ended in a loss to Notre Dame in the National Championship (Cotton Bowl).

A few notes about the below lineups. These all came during the game and were from the first snap of each drive, for context. During the first drive of the game, Collin Simmons entered on 3rd down to rush the passer, replacing Trey Moore. On the second drive of the game, the defensive tackles were both switched out in favor of the transfer duo of Jermayne Lole and Bill Norton, as well as Derek Williams entering for starter Michael Taafe. On the third drive of the game, Collins, and Broughton returned, while on the backend Michael Taafe returned but this time switching with Andrew Mukuba, True Freshman Collin Simmons entered opposite of Barryn Sorrell, ahead of Trey Moore. On the fourth drive of the game and final play of the 1st quarter, heavier rotations occurred with Norton, Lole, and Andrew Mukuba re-entering. Simmons stayed once again, while edge counterpart Ethan Burke entered. At Linebacker, we saw Anthony Hill and David Gbenda leave the field for the first time, with Liona Lefau and Mo Blackwell entering.

Defensive Starters
NB - Jaylon Guilbeau
CB - Manny Muhammed
CB - Jahdae Barron
S - Michael Taafe
S - Andrew Mukuba
LB - David Gbenda
LB - Anthony Hill
NT - Alfred Collins
3T - Barryn Sorrell
DE - Trey Moore
DE - Vernon Broughton
**Simmons entered on 3rd down for Moore** - Sorrell bumped out to END

2nd Drive on defense

NB - Jaylon Guilbeau
CB - Manny Muhammed
CB - Jahdae Barron
S - Derek Williams
S - Andrew Mukuba
LB - David Gbenda
LB - Anthony Hill
NT - Bill Norton
3T - Jermayne Lole

DE - Trey Moore
DE - Barryn Sorrell

3rd Drive on defense
NB - Jaylon Guilbeau
CB - Manny Muhammed
CB - Jahdae Barron
S - Michael Taafe
S - Derek Williams
LB - David Gbenda
LB - Anthony Hill
NT - Alfred Collins
3T - Vernon Broughton
DE - Collin Simmons

DE - Barryn Sorrell

4th Drive on defense (last play of Q1)
NB - Jaylon Guilbeau
CB - Manny Muhammed
CB - Jahdae Barron
S - Michael Taafe
S - Andrew Mukuba
LB - Mo Blackwell
LB - Liona Lefau
NT - Bill Norton
DT - Jermayne Lole
DE - Collin Simmons
DE - Ethan Burke



Weekly Prediction Update (3-0) (+/- of 23 pts)

- Week 1 Prediction: 51-13 Texas
- Week 1 Result: 52-0 Texas
- Week 2 Prediction: 34-13 Texas
- Week 2 Result: 31-12 Texas
- Week 3 Prediction: 55-3 Texas
- Week 3 Result: 56-7 Texas



2025 College Football National Championship odds on (8/27/24), per FanDuel - 2024 Preseason

1. Georgia +280
2. Ohio State +400
3. Oregon +650
4. Texas +850
5. Alabama +1400
5. Ole Miss +1400
7. Notre Dame +1800

2025 College Football National Championship odds on (9/9/24), per FanDuel - Post Week 2 Results

1. Georgia +270
2. Ohio State +350
3. Texas +550
4. Alabama +1100
4. Oregon +1100
6. Ole Miss +1500
7. Penn State +1800
8. Miami (FL) +2000

2025 College Football National Championship odds on (9/16/24), per FanDuel - Post Week 3 Results

1. Georgia +350 - Trend: Down
2. Ohio State +350
3. Texas +550
4. Alabama +850 - Trend: UP
4. Oregon +1100
6. Ole Miss +1200 - Trend: UP
7. Tennessee +1400 - Trend: UP
8. Miami (FL) +1800 - Trend: UP



Cody's Week 4 College Football Top 25 Power Ratings (.977 out of 1.000 = 97.7 Grade)

Tier 1
1. Georgia Bulldogs (3-0) - .983 - Week 3: (13-12 win vs. Kentucky)
2. Texas Longhorns (3-0) - .964 - Week 3: (56-7 win vs. UTSA)

Tier 2
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0) - .943 - Week 3: IDLE
4. Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0) - .942 - Week 3: 42-10 vs. Wisconsin)

Tier 3
5. Ole Miss Rebels (3-0) - .921 - Week 3: (40-6 win vs. Wake Forest)
6. Miami (FL) Hurricanes (3-0) - .913 - Week 3: (62-0 win vs. Ball State)
7. Oregon Ducks (3-0) - .911 - Week 3: (49-14 win vs. Oregon State)

Tier 4
8. Tennessee Volunteers (3-0) - .886 - Week 3: (71-0 win vs. Kent State) - (Movement: +3)
9. Missouri Tigers (3-0) - .876 - Week 3: (27-21 win vs. Boston College)
10. Utah Utes (3-0) - .861 - Week 3: (38-21 win vs. Utah State)
11. Penn State Nittany Lions (2-0) - .837 - Week 3: IDLE

Tier 5
12. Oklahoma Sooners (3-0) - .799 - Week 3: (34-19 win vs. Tulane)
13. Clemson Tigers (1-1) - .785 - Week 3: IDLE
14. Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-0) - .749 - Week 3: (34-3 win vs. Northern Iowa) - (Movement: +2)
15. Kansas State Wildcats (3-0) - .747 - Week 3: (31-7 win vs. 24. Arizona) - (Movement: +4)
16. USC (2-0) - .745 - Week 3: IDLE
17. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2-1) - .745 - Week 3: (66-7 win vs. Purdue)
18. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-0) - .744 - Week 3: (45-10 win vs. Tulsa)
19. Michigan Wolverines (2-1) - .737 - Week 3: (28-18 win vs. Arkansas State) - (Movement: -5)
20. UCF Knights (3-0) - .737 - Week 3: (35-34 win vs. TCU)

Tier 6
21. Texas A&M Aggies (2-1) - .711 - Week 3: (33-20 win vs. Florida) - (Movement: +1)
22. Syracuse Orange (2-0) - .704- Week 3: IDLE
23. Louisville Cardinals (2-0) - .695 - Week 3: IDLE
24. LSU (2-1) - .684 - Week 3: (36-33 win @ South Carolina)
25. South Carolina (2-1) - .684 - Week 3: (36-33 loss vs LSU)


The Next Best
26. Northern Illinois (2-0) - .684 - Week 3: IDLE
27. Iowa State (2-0) - .679 - Week 3: IDLE
28. Arizona Wildcats (2-1) - .671 - Week 3: (31-7 loss @ Kansas State)




Checking in "Behind Enemy Lines"

Georgia (33 days until)


1. DEFENSE - Jalon Walker: Walker is a stud, in 3 games he has 11 pressures(4th in SEC), 3 qb hits, and 1 sack. As the Kentucky hit it's melting point, Walker was the one that bent the edge and closed it out. Get ready for a big matchup for Kelvin Banks, just over a month from now.


2. COACH - Kirby Smart: Is anyone in America more DIALED into their take and understanding of the process, than Kirby Smart? As soon as the game was over, he talked about the difficulty of the SEC on a weekly basis. He did just set the SEC Record for most consecutive regular season wins after all, with 28. The last loss came against Florida on November 7th, 2020. The last three times Georgia traveled to Lexington the scores were just as low as this weekend, 16-6 win in 2022 and a 14-3 win in 2020.

3. PENALTIES - Nine penalties for 85 yards vs. Kentucky. Now 25 penalties for 240 yards in three games. I'm sure this will continue... Georgia is averaging about 8 penalties per game, that is tied with Alabama. South Carolina and Missouri average 9, while Ole Miss, Texas A&M and LSU average 9.5 penalties per game. Texas averages just 5.7 per game.

3. THE ARRESTS - What to do?: "After the Clemson game, Smart took a moment to warn his players. He told them they were going back to Athens and that he needed them to make good choices. He told them the program couldn’t have another arrest. He threatened, pleaded, and cajoled. Yet here we are two weeks later.

Smart doesn’t like to announce suspensions or internal punishments. We understand that. Why put the team’s dirty laundry out for public inspection? Why put the kid through a public shaming after he already went through the mud with the arrest? Yet I think the time for protecting the feelings of these kids is over. There is also the reputation of the school and the program to consider. From the outside, all people see is that it happens again and again. They don’t see the punishment runs or the extra lifts. They don’t see the docked NIL dollars. They don’t see the efforts to stop this. So show them. Announce suspensions and dismissals. If the kid doesn’t like it, well, the time to think about this is before you drive 106 mph down a residential street."
- Radi Nabulsi

Cody's Thoughts: The mood around UGASports.com seems like it's just another day, I went digging for any interesting nuggets, as I did last week with Oklahoma. And I really only came away with baseline thoughts and the occasional "we can't play like that with Alabama, Texas, and Tennessee looming". It really is cool to see what Kirby Smart has built at Georgia, I've been to campus a few times over the last couple of years for Pro Days and the overall attitude in Athens vs. a place like even Clemson, Virginia, South Carolina is vastly different from a dedicated coach access perspective, down to how the event is laid out and the access to the event. Kirby has the entire organization dialed, is my larger point. Nobody is worried about the 1-point win against Kentucky.

MORE from "Behind Enemy Lines" featuring Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Florida, on Wednesday.



Cody's Week 4 Heisman Watchlist Update

Tier 1

1. Cameron Ward, Miami (FL) - QB - (73%, 1,035 yards, 11 td 1 int) - 209.3 Rating - (7-46-1 Rushing) - (Movement: +2)

Tier 2
2. Jalen Milroe, Alabama - QB - (67.3%, 590 yards, 8 td 0 int) - 213.4 Rating - (36-156-6 Rushing) - (Movement: +2)
3. Carson Beck, UGA - QB - (68.3%, 680 yards, 7 td 0 int) - 166.1 Rating (11-55-0 Rushing) - (Movement: -2)
4. Nico Iamaleava, Tennessee - QB - (71.6%, 698 yards, 6 td 2 int) - 182.7 Rating (17-102-1 Rushing) - (Movement: +2)
5. Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss - QB - (83%, 1,172 yards, 8 td 1 int) - 222.6 Rating (18-54-3 Rushing) - (Movement: +1)
6. Quinn Ewers, Texas - QB - (73.4%, 691 yards, 8 td 2 int) - 175.2 Rating - (Movement: -4)

Tier 3
7. Travis Hunter, Colorado - WR/DB - (30-342-5 Receiving) - (11 Tackles, 2 PD and 1 INT on Defense) - (Movement: +2)
8. Dillon Gabriel, Oregon - QB - (84%, 914 yards, 6 td 0 int) - 186.8 Rating
9. Ashton Jeanty, Boise State - RB - (45-459-9 Rushing) - (5-12-0 Receiving)

Tier 4
10. Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona - WR - (23-453-4 Receiving)

Tier 5
11. Drew Allar, Penn State - QB - (64.9%, 420 yards, 5 td 1 int) - 199.4 Rating (13-51-1 Rushing)
12. Miller Moss, USC - QB - (72.7%, 607 yards, 2 td 0 int) - 160.0 Rating
13. Arch Manning, Texas - QB (77.8%, 318 yards, 5 td 0 int) - 317.8 Rating (6-53-2 Rushing) - (Movement: NR)

Dropped from Watchlist
1. Avery Johnson, Kansas State - QB (Week 1)
2. Kyron Drones, Virginia Tech - QB (Week 1)
3. Will Howard, Ohio State - QB (Week 2)
4. Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State - WR - (Week 3)

Notable Heisman Odds (9/16/2024) per. FanDuel Sportsbook
10th - Quinn Ewers (+2200)
11th - Arch Manning (+2500)
48th - Isaiah Bond (+20000)
61st - Jaydon Blue (+25000)


Screenshot-2024-08-27-at-8.17.07 AM.png

- @Alex Dunlap finished with 8 pts, @CodyCarpentier finished with 10 pts
- After a strong Week 2 win by @sabresbills04, they doubled-down with another great finish, tied-2nd.
- Our season-long leader continues to be @SECMatt with an incredible 28-16 record against the spread in the SEC.

Screenshot-2024-09-09-at-8.25.43 AM.png


Enjoy your Monday 🤘
 

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