The B/S question on Baxter’s ceiling is intriguing.
The job isn't done.
Don't get me wrong, I want to shower the Texas Longhorns with roses for going into Ames and delivering the best performance since September.
Yet, I can't.
Believe me, I want to metaphorically slap Steve Sarkisian on the back with glee and give him his props for getting this team to double-digit wins, winning six straight true road games going back to last season and for having the Longhorns on the doorstep of the Big 12 Championship game.
Yet, I can't.
My instincts tell me that you guys want to hear me say that the program has been changed in a way that allows five-star talent to work inside of five-star culture.
Yet, I can't because the job isn't done.
As successful as this season has been through 11 games, there's no reason to test fate with a jinx column that would either see the Longhorns miss the Big 12 Championship with an out-of-nowhere loss to Tech (plus a few other scenarios needed to unfold) or lose in the title game, which might not completely undo all the good that has been accomplished thus far, but would leave a hell of a dent.
There will be plenty of time for the flowers in two weeks, but as someone that wrote a column a couple of months ago about Ja'Tavion Sanders being on the verge of breaking all of David Thomas' career records, only to see his production fall off of a cliff due to a variety of issues, I'm not going to test fate.
My jinx powers are world-renowned and if it happens now, I might not ever be forgiven.
Therefore, I'm not going to write about all of the great accomplishments that have occurred through the first 11 weeks of the season, but I want all of you to know that I'm in the process of calling the florists.
For now, there's work to be done.
1. Texas needs to beat Texas Tech like the Red Raiders stole money out of their grandmother's purse.
This bunch has been a little too mouthy for the last 14 months. As my own great grandmother used to say, it's time to mash their mouths. Leave no doubt. Make them bleed.
2. Texas needs to win the Big 12 title, most likely against Oklahoma State.
This was the original goal going into the season and for all of the playoff talk, the Longhorns haven't won a conference title in half a generation. I literally had a 24-year-old viewer on Saturday night tell us in the OB Live post-game show that he was nine years old when it last happened and he's never seen it with his own eyes.
This has to end. If it doesn't, it'll be a massive letdown.
Therefore, let's all eat some turkey and allow this Longhorn team to get back to work.
There's still work left to do.
No. 2 - Sark sent a message before the game ...
Twenty-one different Texas players have served as game captains for Steve Sarkisian this season. I know because I counted on Saturday afternoon once I saw the names of the captains announced.
Byron Murphy, T'Vondre Sweat, Kelvin Banks and Jordan Whittington.
It felt like if there was a playoff game tomorrow, these would be the four names you'd pick to walk to the 50-yard line to represent your squad. Consequently, it also felt like the foursome you'd send to the 50-yard line for the coin toss if another team's captain has been questioning your team's culture before a game.
Sark admitted it was no mistake.
"Making 90 and 93 captains was intentional. You want to call out our culture, I wanted them to look those guys in the eyes at midfield," Sarkisian said.
If you ever wanted to know what Sark thought about any of those four players, now you know. Those are his dawgs.
Meanwhile, in the event you were wondering, here's is the captain scorecard through 11 games:
4 games: Byron Murphy and T'Vondre Sweat
3 games: Kelvin Banks, Jaylan Ford, Jake Majors, Jordan Whittington and Xavier Worthy
2 games: Jahdae Barron, Jonathon Brooks, Jett Bush, Quinn Ewers, Gunner Helm, Ja'Tavion Sanders and Barryn Sorrell
1 game: Alfred Collins, Kitan Crawford, David Gbenda, Christian Jones, Keilan Robinson, Michael Taaffe and Jerrin Thompson
No. 3 - Riffing on Quinn ...
Very quietly, the Texas starting quarterback played one of his best games of the season just four weeks after an injury that threatened to send both his and the team's season off the rails.
That the Orangebloods universe came away from the game without spotlighting Ewers' performance a ton is kind of fascinating in a number of ways.
Here's a scattershot of thoughts on Ewers' night in Ames.
a. He looked so much more comfortable this week than he did a week ago when it seemed like he was doing everything possible not to take any contact. Well, he was sacked four times against the Cyclones, but he never looked like a player that was truly trying to protect himself at all costs. In fact, if you didn't know he had been injured, you wouldn't have known that there was any reason to even think about it. He's still not volunteering to pick up yards with his feet in the running game, but you can live with that if he can cook in the passing game without many (if any) restrictions.
b. Ewers posted a 203.9 passer rating in the second half, which included a pair of touchdowns inside of the performance. It was one of his best 30 minutes of football all season.
c. Ewers finished with a 161.3 passer efficiency. He has a 162.0 passer efficiency for the season. He's posted a passer rating between 160.0-169.9 in five of nine games this season. He's only posted a sub-150 rating once this season. Ewers hasn't been great this season, but he's consistently very good.
d. Here's a look at Ewers' game-by-game passing efficiency ratings (from best to worst).
1. at Baylor (188.6)
2. vs. Rice (169.1)
3. at Alabama (166.4)
4. at Houston (163.2)
5. at Iowa State (161.2)
6. vs. Oklahoma (160.4)
7. vs. Kansas (163.1)
8. at TCU (151.3)
9. vs. Wyoming (136.2)
No. 4 - A few things about the Big 12 title game/playoffs discussion ...
a. It's a damn joke that it doesn't even seem like the Big 2 knows what the rules are with regard to the tie-breaker situations involving teams vying for a spot in the Big 12 title game.
b. It's hard to believe that Oklahoma State won't take care of business at home against a BYU team that has nothing to play for and lost a gut puncher at home on senior day.
c. The Longhorns will have only two wins over top 25 teams when the new top 25 comes out this week. Given that the Longhorns have been behind Oregon in the committee's eyes when they had three quality victories over ranked teams on its resume, seeing their resume take a small hit does not help the Longhorns. If the Longhorns haven't been able to jump the Ducks up until now, nothing could have occurred this weekend to change the dynamics for Texas in that particular battle.
d. Georgia is beating good teams like it’s back to being Mike Tyson and everyone else is Michael Spinks. The Longhorns probably need Georgia to beat Alabama because I'm not sure a 12-1 Georgia team falls behind a 12-1 Texas team that the committee won't even rate above Oregon, despite having a large resume advantage. Alabama might not jump Texas (I'm not sold on that idea) if it beats Georgia, but is Georgia really going to drop to No. 5 when it looks like a massive No. 1 at the moment?
e. No matter how it gets there, you have to know that there's no way that the SEC gets left out of the playoffs altogether, especially when a lot of people believe that the conference has the best two teams in the country going into the conference title game.
f. Would a one-loss Ohio State fall behind Texas if it loses a very close game to Michigan? Maybe, but maybe not. It's possible it could give the Buckeyes the 2022 TCU treatment.
f. That means in my mind that you can take it to the bank that an SEC team will be in the playoff, along with the winner of the Ohio State/Michigan game (unless it loses in the Big 10 Championship) and the Pac-12 champion (barring a loss this weekend). That leaves one spot. Florida State is getting in if it is undefeated.
g. So, what has to happen for Texas to definitely make it?
1. Texas wins Big 12 championship.
2. Georgia wins SEC (and eliminates Alabama from all discussions).
3. Ohio State wins the Big 10 (and eliminates cheating-ass Michigan from the discussion).
4. Pac-12 Champion winner likely gets in, barring losses this weekend.
5. FSU loses in the next two weeks.
No. 5 - Tracking Down David Thomas ...
Earlier this season, Ja'Tavion Sanders was on pace to break all of David Thomas’ major career tight end records by the end of the final regular season game, but injuries have slowed down his pace a bit.
Here's where things stand going into the Tech game ...
Receptions
1. David Thomas (98)
2. Ja'Tavian Sanders (82)
3. Pat Fitzgerald (80)
4. Jermichael Finley (76)
5. Bo Scaife (75)
Sanders is currently on pace (2.6 catches per game) to finish the regular season with 82-83 receptions. If Texas plays in the Big 12 title game and he plays in a bowl game, it would leave him near 90 receptions at his current pace. In order to break Thomas' record this season, Sanders would have to average 5.33 receptions per game over the course of the next three games. If Texas plays in the national title game, he'd need to average 4.25 receptions.
Receiving Yards
1. David Thomas (1,367)
2. Pat Fitzgerald (1,106)
3. Lawrence Sampleton (1,071)
4. Ja'Tavion Sanders (1,070)
5. Bo Scaife (997)
Sanders isn't catching Thomas in receiving yards this year. He's not going to average 99 yards per game in the possible final three games of the season (74.25 if Texas plays in the national title game), barring an incredible spike in usage and production.
In all likelihood, Sanders will need to come back for another season if he wants to own the career right ends records.
No. 6 - If I had a vote that mattered ...
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Washington
4. Michigan
5. Florida State
6. Alabama
7. Oregon
8. Texas
9. Missouri
10. Ole Miss
(Heisman Trophy)
1. Jayden Daniels - QB - LSU
2. Michael Penix Jr. - QB - Washington
3. Bo Nix - QB - Oregon
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Super Buy) That guy is going to have people in his social media mentions for at least a decade. He basically became a verb last night for talking shit and then having it shoved back in your face. He's forever a cautionary tale.
(Sell) The Mannings don't have a desire to rush Arch until he's ready and at this point there's a strong sense that he's not ready. There's no rush. He'll basically be treated with more patience than any five star in history because the Manning family believes in the power of a slow cook.
(Sell) If Florida State wins the ACC, it’ll beat a more respected team in Louisville than Texas will likely play in the Big 12 championship. The timing of the injury is key. By the time the final rankings come out, the Noles will have won three straight without Travis, including a win over a top-10 opponent, if they stay undefeated.
(Buy) Successful coaches never come cheap. He's going to be viewed as a successful coach following this season.
(Buy) Yes, that's probably right.
(Sell) He just ran for 117 yards on Saturday night. That's no small thing. It's more than a hint. I don't know that I think he's going to be an all-America level back, but he's going to be really good and he's really good right now.
(Sell) If he wins a Big 12 title in year three and wins a major bowl game, I think he'll have met the expectations, not exceeded them.
(Buy) I think so. It might be a little early to truly know.
(Sell): All of the teams around Texas will be playing a more respected/higher-ranked opponent. Whatever Texas could likely do on the final Saturday will likely be respected less than everyone else.
(Sell) The committee has been telling us for weeks that they think Oregon is better than Texas. If they beat Oregon State and Washington in the final two weeks of the season, that's not likely to change, which means a 12-1 Oregon team is likely in. That means the Big 10 winner and an undefeated FSU will be joined by the Pac-12 champion. I just don't believe Texas will be ranked ahead of both SEC teams. I struggle to believe that the committee would drop Georgia below a team in Texas that the committee doesn't believe is better than Oregon.
(Sell) That's not a school record. The school record for rushing yards allowed in a game is -83 yards against SMU in 1991. The Longhorns also famously held Texas A&M to -24 yards in 2008 and -7 yards in 1998.
(Buy) He's a verb, just like Jarrod Hufford, but different.
(Sell) You greatly underestimate the committee doing whatever the hell it wants with whatever inconsistency it wants. I also think you underestimate the respect an undefeated Florida State will get if it beats Florida and Louisville to remain undefeated.
(Sell) I'd play him at 90%.
(Sell) I don't have a mastery of Sark's history as a play-caller at every stop that he's ever called plays in such a way that I can make that strong of a statement, but to the larger point you're making, it was a hell of a series. It was him at his finest and the reason why I laugh at those that believe he should be replaced by someone else.
No. 8 – Put a ring on it …
It's a wrap.
The Texas Volleyball team clinched its SEVENTH consecutive Big 12 championship on Wednesday night with its win over Iowa State. With one game to go before the start of NCAA Tournament play, the Longhorns have lapped the Big 12 competition.
Whatever happens in the Big 12 in 2024 on the volleyball front might deserve an asterisk because any championship that is handed out will only occur because the Longhorns left town for the SEC.
Who's Yo Momma, Big 12? Hint: The championship rings arrive in burnt orange.
Perhaps it's a little early to talk about NCAA Tournament seedings, but it feels like the teams you'd like to avoid before the Final Four are Nebraska (25-0), Stanford (22-3) and Wisconsin (23-2). With the Longhorns sitting at fifth in the current NCAA Top 25 rankings, it feels like Texas could get slotted in the same Regional with No. 4 Louisville, which would keep the Longhorns away from the Big 3 in regional play.
It'll be interesting to see if the Longhorns leap over Louisville in the next rankings after the Cardinals lost to No. 7 Pittsburgh on Saturday, their second loss in the last four games. The Longhorns will also need to keep an eye on No. 6 Oregon and the previously mentioned No. 7 Panthers. The key to a deep post-season run could come down to how the playoff committee slots the No. 4 through No. 7 overall seeds.
No. 9 – Scattershooting on anything and everything …
... This s quite the introduction to the Longhorns nation...
... Oklahoma looks like the team I talked about it being in the lead-up to the Texas game in almost every game it has played this season, except for the actual Texas game. I'm not sure the Sooners were truly better than BYU on Saturday.
... I guess Ollie Gordon has to be the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year with the injury to Jonathon Brooks.
... Texas Tech is bowl eligible. Not a lot to play for on Friday night on paper.
... It's going to be Mike Elko at A&M. It's always been Elko.
... I can't believe it took until 2023 for Jerry Jones to finally invite Jimmy Johnson into the Ring of Honor. Thank goodness he did it before it was too late.
... CJ Stroud wasn't at his best, but the Texans still found a way to win. That's the sign of being a pretty good football team, even if it's only the Arizona Cardinals on the other sideline. I think they make the playoffs.
... Am I crazy or are Josh Allen and Justin Herbert basically the same guy?
... Two months ago Deion was on 60 Minutes. Now his team is 4-7. I suppose the world comes at you fast, huh?
... I'm so confused, but this feels like a real win for men without hair.
... The Marvels was a perfectly fine 6 or 7 out of 10. I walked out with a smile and my nine-year-old daughter loved it. She gave it an 11 out of 10. Her favorite part was the cats. Iman Vellani stole the movie. I definitely liked it more than the last Thor and Ant-Man movies.
... After a somewhat disappointing, but still solid season one of Bosch: Legacy (Amazon Prime/Freevee), I found myself digging season two enough that I stayed up until 3:30 a.m. two nights ago to finish the series. Consider me pumped that season three has already been given the green light.
... I have zero desire to see a new version of The Hunger Games. The last installment kind of ran out of steam for me.
... Ridley Scott gives zero Fs. If the French want some, he's ready to give it.
No. 10 - The List: Top 10 Kings, Queens and Rulers movies ...
Ridley Scott's Napoleon comes out this week in the theaters. It got me to thinking about movies that focus on the stories of real-life royalty.
Here are the parameters for the list.
a. The movie has to feature a real life king, queen or ruler (presidents).
b. The central storyline of the movie has to be centered on the king/queen/ruler or has to be centered on a historical event involving the historical figure.
No Return of the King, Gladiator or Inglourious Basterds
Here we go...
10. The King's Speech
It feels like this movie has lost a lot of steam since winning Best Picture in 2010 over The Social Network. I don't care what anyone says, I like it.
9. Marie Antoinette
My wife has watched this about 300 times, which means I've seen it probably 30 times simply by being around her. It's an underrated Sofia Coppola movie that hits a lot of fun notes.
8. Thirteen Days
A Kevin Costner led drama about the Kennedy White House during the Cuban Missile Crisis. I'm a fan of Costner flicks.
7. Cleopatra
This 60-year-old film stars Liz Taylor and Richard Burton. I haven't seen it in ages, but can remember watching it numerous times as a kid when it was on cable all the time.
6. The Lion in Winter
It's Peter O'Toole and Katherine Hepburn in a 1968 classic about Henry II.
5. Elizabeth
Cate Blanchett FTMFW!!! Seriously, this is a damn good movie.
4. The Last Emperor
This is an all-timer that might be underrated on the list, considering it won all 9 Oscars it was nominated
At times this season, I thought Baxter’s ceiling was below a full season wire-to-wire RB1.
So many games, looked like he was running blind-folded with one shoe on fire:
Running into the back of linemen, tripping up his way into (and out of) positive yards, popping it outside a moment after a hole opened for him.
I had chalked it up to subpar vision and balance that might not be coachable or fixable.
Last game, though— he showed me something.
He was running behind blockers, getting skinny in gaps between tackles. He was keeping low, enabling him to pivot in reaction to the flow of the line movement in front of him.
It takes a while for many running backs to quit “running scared” when they hit the next level of competition.
Baxter ran with intention, aligned with what Choice was, no doubt, repeatedly telling him to do since he hit campus:
He was Running patient and low, and it showed far better vision and balance than he had demonstrated in any other game.
He did show us more than a hint. He showed us a lot of hints.
I think his ceiling is the biggest mystery in the running back room.
He just had his first game of running more like a college back instead of just running like the biggest, fastest guy on the field.
Seeing how well he will grow into making guys miss at the second level, using his size advantage to truck would-be tacklers, consistently keeping low pad levels to reliably gain tough short yards, always falling forward… these are some of the coachable things that divide good from great—
there are a lot of things to keep him and Choice busy in the coming weeks and the entire offseason.
If you watch early Brooks PT- it’s clear we saw coaching help improve these things for him in leaps and bounds no one could (or did) predict.
I’m hoping that will become a recurring theme in the Choice regime.
All American is part skill part luck of the field, but if we keep the line execution at this level, a runner with Baxter’s tools could put up the numbers to get a nod if he keeps showing improvement.
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