A year ago, a fascinating development occurred in the midst of what I've described as the most competitive landscape in the history of football recruiting in the Lone Star State.
No one assumed control.
Six months ago, the 2019 season began with both Texas and Texas A&M positioned in and around the top 10 of the major polls, while Oklahoma was back in the top five looking for its fifth straight Big 12 championship. In the history of college football in the state of Texas, it's a rare moment when the Longhorns, Sooners and Aggies have all been among the nation's elite and with the likes of Alabama, Ohio State, LSU, Clemson, Georgia and a few others all making dents in recruiting among the bluest of the blues, the general thinking was that one of the three regional big dogs would emerge as a potential dominant force with uncontrollable momentum with a big season.
It didn't happen.
Both Texas and Texas A&M fell into the trap door of mediocrity, leaving Tom Herman and Jimbo Fisher in a position of needing to answer even more questions than they had answers ready to go. Meanwhile, Lincoln Riley's Sooners won yet another Big 12 championship, but that success hasn't been parlayed into recruiting wins and losses inside of Texas state borders.
A quick glance of the state's top 15 prospects in the Rivals.com rankings shows that the breakdown among schools for the bluest of the blue chips ended up looking like this:
Texas A&M - 3
Texas - 2
Alabama - 2
LSU - 2
TCU - 2
Florida - 1
Ohio State - 1
Stanford - 1
Three things from that small set of data that stood out to me whole digging into it this week.
a. Where the hell is Oklahoma? Not only did OU not sign a single prospect in the Rivals top 15, the Sooners didn't sign a single prospect in the top 25. For all of Riley's success in his first three seasons as the OU coach, it hasn't translated into success when recruiting in the state of Texas.
b. While A&M signed three of the state's top 15 prospects via Rivals, it didn't sign another player ranked in the top 30, which is why it was so important for the Aggies to tap into out of state resources in order to sign their top 6 class.
c. If anyone is leading the way in the state of Texas, it's probably the Longhorns. Although the efforts from Herman and Co. netted only two of the state's top 15 prospects (and none of the top 10), the Longhorns finished with nine of the state's top 27 prospects. Therefore, while Texas struggled with a number of the state's tier one prospects, it cleaned up with tier 2 prospects in a way that no other school that recruits the state came close to achieving.
What it means is that going into what might turn into a historic class of 2021, the hand-to-hand combat in recruiting will look quite a bit like last season with each individual recruitment of the state's elite of the elite potentially going in any number of directions. All one needs to do is look at the recruitments of Tommy Brockermeyer, Camar Wheaton and Bryce Foster (all ranked as five-stars) to know that anything and everything will likely go again in the state.
In fact, it's probably too late for Herman or Fisher to totally change the dynamics of the 2021 class. A big season by the Longhorns or Aggies will probably significantly impact the 2022 recruiting class, but history has proven time and time again that success in the fall rarely changes the direction of any recruiting class that is more than 20 months deep into an estimated 24-month process.
The good news for the Longhorns is that their big start in 2021 in-state recruiting has seen Texas already surpass the number of top-15 prospects it signed in 2020 with three, while the Aggies and Sooners haven't been able to secure a commitment from any of the state's bluest blue chips.
Check out the early top 15 commitment breakdown through Sunday ...
Texas: 3
Alabama: 1
Ohio State: 1
SMU: 1
That's it.
Even better news for the Longhorns is that while some of the state's five-stars are taking a wait and see attitude with Herman, Fisher is dealing with what amounts to an even worse situation than Herman when you consider his limited success in 2020 combined with being completely shut out of the state early top 15 in 2021, while I'm not sure that Riley is any more of a lock to sign a top 15 type prospect in 2021 than he achieved in 2020. While Texas might have limited momentum, it's not really in a chase mode of the Aggies or Sooners, which might seem like somewhat faint praise, but it could be a hell of a lot worse.
The bad news for the Longhorns is that creating momentum in an effort to land a guy like Brockermeyer or Wheaton will be severely limited over the course of the next eight months, a critical period of time that might ultimately how this 2021 class will ultimately be remembered.
What happens from here on out will be decided by the ground game of the recruiters on each staff one recruitment at a time and there's not a person on the planet that can probably pin down exactly what will happen from here on out.
It's a damn good free-for-all.
No. 2 - The big needs in 2021 ...
In planting the proper seeds for how to judge the success for next year's recruiting class, I thought we'd take a look at the position of biggest need going into the 2021 recruiting year.
A year ago, it was the defensive line and quarterback.
A year later, some things change and others remain the same.
No. 1 - Defensive Ends
Depending on what position you believe Alfred Collins ends up playing in the long-term, the Longhorns either signed one or none in the 2020 recruiting class, which is a recipe for disaster at a point when the program has reemphasized the playmaking from the position. With Marquez Bimage, Taquan Graham and Jacoby Jones all set to complete their senior seasons this year, there's literally no limit to the amount of pass rushers and edge players that the Longhorns should sign this year. If they can sign a half dozen, sign a half dozen.
No. 2 - Linebacker
I honestly don't know what to make of the collective talent that the Longhorns have pulled together at this position, but it's not a group that I view as overflowing with future upside. Don't get me wrong, it's not that there aren't some quality players here, but there aren't nearly enough of them, especially when it comes to certifiable ones that you can take to the bank as future impact players. Chris Ash's defense needs a real infusion of new talent.
No. 3 - Cornerbacks
There's a bit of an imbalance in the program at this position at the moment, with four juniors set to depart following the 2021 season and not much proven behind them at all. Given the uncertainty at the position behind Anthony Cook, Jalen Green, D'Shawn Jamison and Kobe Boyce, it's critical the Longhorns score big in the 2021 class so that Herman isn't in a position in 2022 where he has to lean on a bunch of true freshmen, which we've seen before in recent years.
No. 3- Where's the Beef?
After establishing the biggest needs in the 2021 recruiting year, the next question that needs to be asked is whether the in-state talent can support those needs or whether the Longhorns will need to look out of state, as they did in the 2019 recruiting class, to help build the talent base that Texas needs.
Let's go through the in-state talent at all three positions.
1. Defensive ends
The Longhorns have already offered six defensive end prospects in the state of Texas, which indicates that the staff likes the in-state options available to them and with top-10 in-state prospect Ja'Tavion Sanders already in the commitment cupboard, the staff is off to a very good start. The reality is that outside of Sanders, the only true elite prospects in the state appear to be Texarkana Pleasant Grove's Landon Jackson, who Herman could be seen snuggling up to in his most recent unofficial visit last month, and DeSoto's Shemar Turner (who also visited Texas a few weeks ago). If the Longhorns are able to sweep the board of all three, the need to go out of state to land elite-level prospects will be nullified tremendously, but if it's only one or two out of three, the urgency to go out of state will change dramatically.
2. Linebackers
While there are three four-star linebacker prospects in the current Rivals rankings, including Texas commitment Derrick Harris, none are ranked among the top 20 overall prospects in the state. If Texas wants to land a war daddy or multiple war daddies, it's going to need to look out of state in all likelihood. For full transparency, when I say war daddies, I'm speaking of prospects that develop into NFL prospects at the rate of 35-60 percent and not 10-25 percent.
3. Cornerbacks
The only top 20 cornerback prospect in the state at the moment is Austin LBJ's Latrell McCutchin, who is not only committed to Alabama, but he's coming off of a major knee injury. Meanwhile, Katy cornerback Hunter Washington is another that will be chalked up as a big dog prospect and the Longhorns are all over him, but there's some thought that LSU is the team to beat in his recruitment. Basically, if there's a position at this point where it would probably serve the Longhorns best in terms of going aggressively for talent out of the state of Texas, it's at the cornerback position.
No. 4 - Attaboy, Tom ...
As time has gone by over the course of the last week, I've found myself liking the hire of Indiana defensive line coach Mark Hagen as the new defensive line coach more and more.
When you inspect his work throughout his career, it's pretty clear that he's been a fantastic developer of talent of defensive tackles and with the move back to a four-man defensive line this year under new defensive coordinator Chris Ash, his ability to turn water into wine might just prove to be critical during the 2020 season. Although there hasn't truly been a specific designation to his role along the line, the idea of Hagen working with the defensive tackles, while Oscar Giles focuses on the defensive ends, should allow both groups a chance at optimal success.
What he's done in the last couple of seasons with the Indiana interior linemen is nothing short of sensational when you consider that none of his pupils arrived in college with any serious hopes of emerging into difference-makers attached to them. In walking into a situation where he has the likes of Keondre Coburn and Moro Ojomo to manage, he's inheriting more raw talent than he's worked with in quite a while.
The fact that he's also a plus-recruiter and has experience working inside the state of Texas might make the addition of Hagan my favorite non-coordinator hire of the off-season.
No. 5 – BUY or SELL …
(Buy) There's a level of benefit that I'm willing to give right now and Texas getting to the championship game is as far as that benefit of the doubt goes at this point. In reality, the game in Stillwater on the day after Thanksgiving could easily be for a spot in that game.
(Sell) See above. Texas hasn't earned that kind of benefit of the doubt. Only a real case of confirmation bias would give it.
(Sell) I can't say buy right now.
(Double Buy) I have to believe that Del Conte understands that the current state of the Texas program is unsustainable and that without a change, the emotional hole that things have fallen into will only grow deeper.
As far as "A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood," I thought it was an absolutely beautiful, touching movie. It made me seek out Mister Rogers clips for a full week afterwards.
(Buy) I think so, but I don't know so.
(Buy) Yup.
(Sell) I'll put the Longhorns in the top five for each, but I'm not ready to go much higher. This is a team that still has some real personnel questions.
(Sell) I'm betting on Smith having the bigger year at this point.
(Buy) You know how it works.
(Buy) The succession plan begins during the 2020 season, not after it.
(Sell) Nah.
No. 6 - No. 1 Baylor is coming to town on Monday ...
Brace yourselves.
The best college basketball team in the country is coming to Austin on Monday night and there's virtually nothing that exists that suggests the Longhorns will do anything but take a second loss from the Bears.
Not the loss against Texas Tech on Saturday. Not the previous game against Baylor. Not any of the games against teams with a solid pulse all season.
Just let this season end, already.
No. 7 - A quick shout out ...
Mike White has a team that everyone should be keeping at least one eye on. I can't remember the last time the Longhorns had a team with this much offense.
No. 8 - Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind ...
... I'm indifferent on the XFL after the first weekend.
... That being said, Patrick Vahe for the first down!
... Call me crazy, but I think we're going to see a better Andrew Wiggins in Golden State than we ever saw in that dumpster fire of a Timberwolves organization.
... Jaxson Hayes seems to be good for one these nasty throw-downs about once per week.
... I was at home and in a position to watch the Jon Jones fight on Saturday night and I just couldn't get myself to care, so I watched "Pain and Glory" with Antonio Banderas.
... For the first time in my life, I watched more Bundesliga League than Premier League over the weekend. Is Alphonso Davies the best active player from North America?
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Underrated Texas Wins of the Last 30 Years ...
The premise of this challenge was to pick a list of 10 games under the following rule: No win that represents the best win of a historic season or a major bowl qualifies. Honestly, how could any of those games possibly qualify.? I also excluded any game that represented the final time the Longhorns played its biggest in-state rival for the final time.
That excluded the following games from making the lost: 1990 vs. Houston, 1995 vs. Texas A&M, 1996 vs. Nebraska, 1998 vs. Nebraska, 2004. Michigan, 2005 vs. USC, 2008 vs. OU, 2008 vs. Ohio State, 2011 at Texas A&M or 2018 vs. Georgia
With those rules out of the way, here's what I came up with.
10. 1998 vs. Mississippi State (38-11)
It's just fun. Ricky Williams celebrated his Heisman by running over a bunch of dudes on his way to 200+ yards, Major Applewhite threw three touchdowns and Wane McGarity caught a 59- and 52-yard touchdown passes. It was just a hell of a lot of fun and the city threw a damn parade for it a few days later.
9. 2004 at Arkansas (22-20)
The sad looks on those poor Arkansas fans when Larry Dibbles saved the day with a forced fumble in the final moments of the game were absolutely priceless. A case can be made that the importance of this game gets overlooked because it was a real test of this team's spine following that disaster of the 2003 season.Texas learned how to win a game with its back to the wall under Mack Brown on this night.
8. 2002 at Kansas State (17-14)
One of Chris Simms' finest hours ,as he went on the road and did to the Wildcats what it has done to the Longhorns so many times before and after.
7. 1999 vs. Nebraska (24-20)
I can still see Mike Jones rumbling down the sideline for the game-winning touchdown like he had a Volvo strapped to his back as if it were yesterday.
6. 2000 vs. Texas A&M (43-17)
Chris Simms owned the Aggies when he was with the Longhorns and this was his finest hour in that role, throwing touchdown passes to each member of the Big 3. I've never seen my friend Brad Calhoun... aka TEX (AUS)... enjoy a Texas win more than he enjoyed this one.
5. 2013 vs. Oklahoma (36-20)
In the final OU game of the Mack Brown era, the Longhorns didn't just beat Oklahoma, they beat the shit out of them. It had Case McCoy touchdown bombs, Daje Johnson punt returns for touchdowns and Chris Whaley fumble returns for touchdowns... which is to say it had a lot of things take place that you couldn't have really expected going into the game.
4. 2004 vs. Oklahoma State (56-35)
There's probably never been a buzz in the stadium quite like the one created when Texas overturned a 35-7 deficit by running off 49n unanswered points with the late Cedric Benson accounting for five touchdowns.
3. 1990 vs. Texas A&M (28-27)
A case can be made that this is the most competitive high-level Texas/Texas A&M game ever played and the fact that it came down to the Longhorns snuffing out a two-point conversion in the final couple of minutes of the game speaks to that exact point.
2. 1996 vs. Texas A&M (51-15)
Everyone remembers the 1995 game so fondly, and for good reason, but it was the 1996 game that truly solidified a new reality that the Texas football program wasn't just surpassed the Aggies as a program, it was leaving it behind in the dust. In fact, the combination of James Brown's 346 yards passing and four touchdowns, along with Ricky Williams' 145-yard day makes it arguably the best home performance of the John Mackovic era.
1. 2005 at Ohio State (25-22)
I considered putting this in the "There's No Way It Can Be Underrated" category, but the truth of the matter is that the importance of this game can't be stressed enough. Without it, there is no national championship game against USC. To go on the road and handle business against a terrific Ohio State game with a fourth quarter comeback was a sign that the Longhorns were a grown-up football team that was on the cusp of doing very grown-up things.
No.10 - And finally...
Some random thoughts on the Academy Awards... (I'll update these through the broadcast as we go.)
1. I love Janelle Monae. That's it. That's thought.
2. I love Regina King. That's it. That's thought.
3. Brad Pitt absolutely deserved Best Supporting Actor for his role in "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood". There's a good chance that when it's all said and done, this is the role we remember him most for, which is saying something when you consider the roles he's done over the years (Note: I almost did a Top 10 list of the best Brad Pitt roles over the years. Soon).
4. Bong Joon Ho getting nan Oscar for best original screenplay is not only justified, but it might be an indicator that a surprise or two might be in store for us tonight. Just making that mental note right now.
5. I love Natalie Portman. That's it. That's thought.
6. Jojo Rabbit with a Best Adapted Screenplay win! After seeing it last night, I find that to be quite exciting.and deserving. I had real doubts about what the movie experience would be like, but it was incredibly clever, entertaining and touching. Well done
7. Hoo-boy the middle two hours of this bad boy gets super b-o-r-i-n-g and we've still got 90 minutes to go before the good stuff arrives.
8. Laura Dern winning in Best Supporting Actress feels like the biggest no-doubt-about-it of the entire night. The other women never had a chance.
9. There's no way that Billie Eilish knows who more than 12-percent of the people being referenced all night actually are.
10. Wait, a Eminem performance of "Lose Yourself" 18 years later? Yeah, I'll take some of that. Wait, is he out of breath?
11. Someone give Cynthia Erivo all the damn awards right now! Wow.
12. Wait, The Irishman got nominated for GOOD special effects?
13. This has to be framed and put on a wall.
14. Pain and Glory deserved better than to come along in the same year as Parasite.
15. I really wish I had seen Elton John live in concert in his prime.
16. Best awards speech from the weekend you haven't seen yet.
17. I think Elton is drunk as a skunk.
18. Spike Lee's Kobe Tux was big-time on-point.
19. Whoa, Bong Joon Ho has to be as drunk as Elton at this point and he just won his third award. Is this going to be Parasite's night?
20. Awesome moment seeing Bong lead a standing ovation for Marty. That's class. That was a moment.
21. Billie Eilish singing "Yesterday"... man, this has been a pretty damn good Oscars.
22. Joaquin Phoenix was probably as big of a favorite as Laura Dern. I'm a little sad for Leo and Adam, but Phoenix was out of this worlds good. No qualms about this one.
23. #TeamSaoirse
24. Did Renee just outweird Joaquin?
25. Wow, Parasite absolutely did the damn thing tonight. Pretty awesome. Good night.
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