Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (A special Memorial Day edition...)

Discussion in 'Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend Archive' started by Ketchum, May 28, 2018.

  1. Ketchum

    Ketchum Resident Blockhead
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    [​IMG]

    Let's talk about Tyler Johnson, the Conroe Oak Ridge offensive lineman who committed to the Longhorns over the weekend.

    I'm a big, big fan.

    When I moved Johnson into the top 10 of the Lone Star Recruiting rankings earlier in the spring, the athletic dancing bear hadn't quite caught fire as a prospect from a recruiting rankings standpoint, but it was obvious to the naked eye when reviewing his film that this was a kid that would emerge as a high-level national prospect.

    [​IMG]

    Four months later, he's a national top-75 prospect and committed to the Longhorns. Eventually, I believe he'll be rated as a high-four star prospect, which would match the traditional ranking that goes along with being on the cusp of the top 70. It might seem like an insignificant detail, but there's actually a stark difference between the quality of a top 75, high four-star prospect and the tier below it (mid-four-stars), which typically extends to the national top 150 or so.

    The difference? Well, when it comes to projecting as an NFL drafted player, those in the top 75 (and ranked as high-four stars or higher) typically emerge as impact linemen worthy of serious attention from NFL teams at twice the rate as the next tier below them.

    At the most basic level possible, it's the difference between 2:1 odds of eventually being drafted by an NFL team and 4:1 or 5:1 odds.

    Therefore, while there's a lot of work to be done in the next four or five years of development for Johnson, he's a piece of clay that will arrive on the 40 Acres with an upside that's different from most.

    Since the beginning of the decade, the Longhorns have signed only five such offensive line prospects: Trey Hopkins (2010 - No. 64 overall), Kennedy Estelle (2013 - No. 67 overall), Kent Perkins (2014 - No. 41 overall), Darius James (2014 - No. 65 overall) and Patrick Hudson (2016 - No. 61 overall).

    Of that group, Hopkins was a solid college player, who emerged as a starter for the Cincinnati Bengals, but the other players created mixed (mostly poor) results. Perkins was merely an average college player, but has also emerged as an NFL player with the same Bengals squad as Hopkins, while Estelle and James flamed out of the program before they could make a real positive impact. Meanwhile, it's too early to properly judge Hudson, who was injured last season right at the moment when he seemed to be coming on.

    I'd contend that the Longhorns are due to hit on one of these elite-level prospects, since you'd probably have to go back to Tony Hills in 2003 to find an elite offensive line prospect that truly lived up to the massive expectations that come with being such a highly-regarded prospect.

    No. 2 - Some softball coaching scuttlebutt ...

    There's been some discussion that the Longhorns could replace former coach Connie Clark with a hire from within, with assistant Tripp McKay listed as the primary possibility.

    In asking around this weekend, I'm not sure I made any real headway in locking down the direction Chris Del Conte will go with this hire, but I will keep digging.

    I have to be honest, I don't know much about the women's softball coaching market. I don't really have a smart recommendation because ... wait for it ... I'm not qualified to make one.

    I just wonder how everyone might feel about making a hire from within?

    No. 3 - You could see it coming a mile away ...

    I think the best thing that could happen to the Texas Longhorn baseball team is that there was actually a Big 12 Baseball Tournament for it to flame out in before the start of the NCAA Tournament.

    In retrospect, it was impossible to think that there wouldn't be a bit of a hangover following a pretty magical weekend, which occurred only a few days before the start of the Tournament.

    A more experienced winner probably would have handled the situation better, but Texas baseball is no longer an experienced winner. That mental strength will need to be rebuilt and the events from this weekend will be part of the lesson that will be learned.

    For now, this team needs to recharge its batteries, shake off the results from the Tournament and prepare itself for the true second season.

    No. 4 – Buy or Sell …
    [​IMG]

    BUY or SELL: The quarterback play will have more to do with the success or failure of the offense this year than Coach Beck's play calling?

    (Buy) Obviously, there's some crossover between these two issues, but good quarterback play can mask poor play-calling better than great play-calling can mask poor quarterback play.

    BUY or SELL: As of today 5-27-2018, you feel Texas will finish with a top-10 class in recruiting? I know this question has been worn out and the landscape continuously changes.

    (Buy) Last year, Florida State was the No. 10 team in the national rankings, finishing with one five-star, 15 four-stars and an average star ranking of 3.76. Texas currently has eight commitments, with five currently rated as four stars. So, it comes down to whether you believe the coaches will finish with another 11-12 four-stars, which I believe they will. It might be close, though.

    BUY or SELL: Chris Del Conte will be critiquing the offensive performance this year. If the offense still stutters by mid season he’ll force Herman to change things up.

    (Sell) I don't believe that at all.

    BUY or SELL: A team can have too many quarterbacks, defensive backs and wide receivers on campus and in the pipeline?

    (Sell) There's not a position on the field you can have too many of. The entire purpose of elite recruiting, year-in and year-out, is so that you always have volume.

    BUY or SELL: Texas beats Maryland on Sept. 1, destroys Tulsa on Sept. 8, and then beats USC convincingly in Austin on Sept. 15.

    (Sell) I could see beats Maryland, beats Tulsa and gets by USC, which I would imagine would be good enough.

    BUY or SELL: Despite winning its first three games of the year, Texas still hasn't settled on a starting quarterback.

    (Buy) I'm not buying a lot of stock in the Texas offense right now.

    BUY or SELL: The Longhorn men will play for a national championship in one of the big three sports in the next five years.

    (Sell) I still can't buy that. Hope like hell I change it to a buy soon.

    BUY or SELL: Longhorns win a national championship -- any sport -- before you spend $100 (your own money) at a strip club again!

    (Buy) Eddie Reese will win another national title before I go back to a strip club ... I think.

    BUY or SELL: It was not an accident that Chris Plonsky was not mentioned or quoted in the press release regarding the resignation of Connie Clark?

    (Buy) There are no accidents.

    BUY or SELL: You cheat by using the Buy or Sell questions to help you come up with a theme for your 10TFTW column, then pick from the remaining B/S questions that are okay.

    (Sell) I "cheat" occasionally, but usually I take notes on what I want to write about during the week and by the time I get to the weekend, I'm pretty good with topics. It probably happens once a month or so where I'll steal an idea or concept for an entire section.

    BUY or SELL: Sergio Ramos is a dirty player and accomplished what he set out to do to Mo Salah?

    (Sell) Ramos is a dirty player and I think he absolutely meant to give Salah some rough treatment with his intentional efforts to hold Salah's arm as they went to the ground in the Champions League final, but I don't think anyone could have guessed that it would cause the damage that it did.

    BUY or SELL: If the Eagles, the Beatles, and the Beach Boys held a winner-take-all poker game, the Eagles would win?

    (Buy) As a band, the Eagles were some card-playing deviants and Glenn Fry was a card-shark among his group.

    No. 5 - Appreciate the greatness in front of you...






    No. 6 - For the record...

    These are my top 10 all-time NBA players.

    1. Michael Jordan
    2. LeBron James
    3. Magic Johnson
    4. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
    5. Wilt Chamberlin
    6. Shaquille O’Neal
    7. Tim Duncan
    8. Kobe Bryant
    9. Larry Bird
    10. Hakeem Olajuwon

    No. 7 - Predictions, predictions, predictions...

    a. Kevin Durant plays his best game of the series in game seven of the Western Conference Finals on Monday night.

    b. James Harden plays an even better game - 38 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists.

    c. Eric Gordon has a bigger impact tonight than either of the Splash Brothers.

    d. Rockets win 115-110.

    No. 8 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …

    ... It goes without saying that LeBron James finding a way to win a game seven on the road with Jeff Green and J.R. Smith in the starting line-up goes down as one of the great achievements of his career. The Cavs will get smashed in the finals, but winning on the road in game seven is a rare deal.

    ... Jayson Tatum is going to be a bad dude for a very long time in the NBA. Imagine him in Philly right now instead of Markelle Fultz ...

    ... The Celtics have some interesting personnel decisions to make in the next couple of off-seasons.

    ... After a five-hit game two days ago, this Mike Trout stat is goofy:


    ... Headline on ESPN.com that kind of scared me: "There's no question Cowboys are Dak Prescott's team now"

    ... Josh Freeman retired from the CFL this weekend. Who knew?

    ... Like Texas fans following the 2010 national championship game, I'm going to forever wonder "what if" when it comes down to this weekend's Champions League final. Liverpool was the better team in the first 25 minutes of the game - creating chances and making Real Madrid uncomfortable ... and then everything changed when Mo Salah had to leave the field with injury. As it is, Real won the game on a wonder goal and two keeper mistakes. It's a bit frustrating that Liverpool didn't really make Real Madrid beat them. The Liverpool back four was outstanding, Ronaldo was rendered a non-factor and it was basically a push in the midfield. The difference was Gareth Bale, Loris Karius and the Salah injury.
    [​IMG]

    No.9 - This will give you some perspective...

    Tweet!

    No. 10 – And Finally …

    To every single man and woman that has ever given the ultimate sacrifice, and the families that were forced to live with that sacrifice ...

    From the bottom of my heart ...

    Thank you. We might be a dysfunctional family right now, but you are never ... ever ... forgotten.

    Not today. Not yesterday. Not tomorrow. Not ever.

    You represent the best of us.

    [​IMG]
     
  2. JuarezYourProblem

    JuarezYourProblem Our best can beat anyone in the country
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  3. McLovin327

    McLovin327 Newsletter Editor
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    1st
     
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  4. Ketchum

    Ketchum Resident Blockhead
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    [​IMG]
     
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  5. johncoshea

    johncoshea Well-Known Member
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    Nice write up - worth the wait. Sorry for the Liverpool loss. That had to be tough to lose in that fashion.
     
  6. drunk randoke

    drunk randoke Ok cool. Hook 'em
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    Internal hire for softball is weird but we don’t really care. Trust cdc I guess.

    Spot on your last comment.
     
  7. Ketchum

    Ketchum Resident Blockhead
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    It wasn't fun. I'm telling you... very much like the 2010 national title game.
     
  8. Krose3425

    Krose3425 El Duderino, if you're not into the brevity thing
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    No Bill Russell in your top 10?
     
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  9. MauiHorn

    MauiHorn Well-Known Member
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    Enjoyed this weeks write up.

    For leBron to win that game with no KLove and on the road against an undefeated in the playoffs Celtics team was amazing. He played every minute, had some unbelievable blocks and basically kept the crowd out of the game the whole second half. Never ran out of gas.

    That was the best game and single performance of any player in the NBA this season. He can dominate like no one I’ve seen in all facets of the game. He is the MVP.
     
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  10. Suchomel

    Suchomel Well-Known Member
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    Kind of where I'm at with it as well.
     
  11. brichits

    brichits Well-Known Member
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    Nice job Ketch.
     
  12. TexasFan

    TexasFan Well-Known Member
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    Thank you all that have served and gave your life for our freedom and country.
     
  13. Ketchum

    Ketchum Resident Blockhead
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    Nope.

     
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  14. McLovin327

    McLovin327 Newsletter Editor
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    [​IMG]
     
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  15. TxStrongTxSmart

    TxStrongTxSmart Well-Known Member
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    Don’t underestimate The Beach Boys. Dennis Wilson would’ve screwed all the other bands’ wives and gotten into their heads. He did it to Fleetwood Mac. Then Brian would’ve snorted a huge rail of cocaine and played mamas little baby loves shortenin bread over and over on the piano until everybody left because it was too weird of a scene.
     
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  16. Cdun

    Cdun Well well well, How the turntables...
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    Babe Ruth
    Mark McGuire
    Barry Bonds




    Sooooo.... basically the only valid player on that list is Babe Ruth.
     
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  17. Krose3425

    Krose3425 El Duderino, if you're not into the brevity thing
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    Is there a significance to a PER of 25? He had an avg PER of 19.4 in the postseason, with 4 seasons above 22. Also, defensive stats are not weighed in as heavily for PER. Which was Russell’s calling card. Not even going to get into his accolades but, I still find your reasoning kind of puzzling.
     
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  18. Live_To_Hunt

    Live_To_Hunt Well-Known Member
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    Very nice. I would have Shaq at #3, in his prime he would have dominated Kareem and Chamberlin his size and strength can’t be matched. Also I would have Kobe above Duncan. But I agree with all 10 players just a different order.
     
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  19. sy1804

    sy1804 Well-Known Member
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    Thanks for the input request re: #2 ... This needs to be an outside hire with an experienced coach!!! Pay the person and get out of their way ...

    Semper Fi & Hook'em
     
  20. I Hear Voices

    I Hear Voices Well-Known Member
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    Last night was so much fun. Tonight will also be a big game. Let's see how close you come to this prediction. If you hit on all three, everyone on the staff should get a big raise.:)
     
  21. UT Bondman

    UT Bondman There is no substitute
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    #6: Leaving off Russell makes your entire list asinine, regardless of “advanced stats”. You know what the most “advanced” stat is? It’s called winning - and Russell is the King of that over any player on your list. They didn’t give out MVP’s like statistics chiclets in the 1960’s like they do now either (see Westbrook, Russell).

    #4 & #8: While I too wish that Salah had played the whole game as well, you need to reign in the “Ramos is dirty, bad Ramos” yapping. Mo has had one really spectacular year, but Ramos is a generationally great CB who any fan would give his left nut to have on their team. He defines badass CB play and has all of the trophies to show for it at every conceivable level of futbol.

    #9: Good save and God bless.
     
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  22. GMS7

    GMS7 Well-Known Member
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    does anyone know if Cat Osterman wants the job.
     
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  23. longhrn12

    longhrn12 Well-Known Member
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    I was thinking the same thing when Mo went down. Did you see the elbow Ramos threw at Karius too?? That guy’s play is filthy. Can’t stand that type of play.
     
  24. wfoot

    wfoot Well-Known Member
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    I am not a LeBron fan at all, but it is undeniable that they guy is a remarkable, once in a generation, player.
     
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  25. No Mas

    No Mas Well-Known Member
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    it's obvious you never saw Oscar Robertson play- he's gotta be in the top 10
     
  26. slothrop

    slothrop Well-Known Member
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    Good job, Ketch. Many thanks.
     
  27. PabloDeTejas

    PabloDeTejas The Quarter > OB Mods
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    That is an excellent Top 10. Anyone will be hard pressed to find fault with it....although I am sure someone will try.
     
  28. foreverhorns

    foreverhorns Texas Longhorns Football Is Life
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    #10 said it all.
    BRAVO!!!
     
  29. ball911

    ball911 Well-Known Member
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    I’m just not qualified....@Ketchum with the gutsiest of internet admissions.

    Prediction...Would agree with you on Rox getting the W, but can’t see how they do it without a healthy Chris Paul.
     
  30. NativeTex

    NativeTex Well-Known Member
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    Disagree . Shake it up. Get a proven HC commodity . Nothing inside that program screams "hire me; can't miss"
     
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  31. LonghornBuc

    LonghornBuc Well-Known Member
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    The B/S on our QB and Plonsky in the press release are very interesting points.

    I have to think Plonsky is walking down the plank, and she knows it. CDC may be holding her hand to make sure she goes, but to do it in a way that causes the least damage to the University.

    As to QBs, not to raise the issue for the billionth time, but Shane is going to play, a lot. The emotional attachment many have to Sam is cute and all, but he has a long, long way to go as a QB. Like Ash, Swoopes and most of his predecessors, its really too bad he didn't get to redshirt. He has a lot of athletic ability, but he needed a year to learn. Shane did as well, but the kid is really underrated here.
     
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  32. learnsome

    learnsome Cut you beggars!
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    With that top ten, I can now understand why you think Shaka is damn good.
     
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  33. jwrjr

    jwrjr Well-Known Member
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    Nice write up; and, very nice tribute at the end. As for your top 10 NBA list, I am ok with the ten names; however, I would have Larry #6 and Hakeem #7. In the one NBA finals that they met, Hakeem schooled Shaq. Also, I believe a Hakeem-Wilt match up would have been worth any price of admission as Wilt would not have been able to keep up with The Dream on defense and Dream would have forced him away from the basket on offense and made him shoot shots not just dunk. Also worth the admission would be a Jordan-James face off.
     
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  34. gravity26

    gravity26 Well-Known Member
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    Wow I didn’t know that. Peter Wang... blown away by his act of heroism.
     
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  35. great horndini

    great horndini Well-Known Member
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    That doesn't seem to slow down or stop anybody else on this board (including me). That would actually take a lot of fun out of things.
     
  36. bujji1402

    bujji1402 Well-Known Member
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    Nice write up. Enjoyed it.
     
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  37. CS

    CS Social Justice Warrior
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    Old man Kareem held his own against Hakeem, who outplayed Shaq in a Finals.
     
  38. johncoshea

    johncoshea Well-Known Member
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    Yeah, I completely get that comparison.
     
  39. Live_To_Hunt

    Live_To_Hunt Well-Known Member
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    When Shaq was in Orlando which was certainly not his prime, the other guys might have had a longer prime but Peak to Peak I think Shaq would have dominated.
    On a rankings list like that I usually think of the players at their peak not how long they extended their greatness, because by ranking them in a top 10 of all time you are already saying they are all great and then it comes down to peak performance.
     
  40. bozans

    bozans Well-Known Member
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    I saw him play at N.Tex. in the 50's --I had never seen anybody play BB like he did !!!!!!
     
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