Keeping leads was an issue for Steve Sarkisian's football program in 2021.
That'll need to change in 2022 if the Longhorns hope to land Arch Manning.
How much do the Mannings like Texas at this point?
The apparent answer is being given in real time in his recruitment. The longer his recruitment chugs along at a pace that's more deliberate than that of almost every nationally elite quarterback of the last half-decade, the more it becomes crystal clear that Arch and his family are truly going out of their way to give the Longhorns every opportunity to prove that Austin is the place he needs to be.
There hasn't been much fallout from a 5-7 season if we're being completely honest, but the inability for the Manning family to completely give the Texas football program the benefit of the doubt is probably one of the biggest unintended taxes Sarkisian and his staff have had to pay out of a season that included a six-game losing streak.
Arch and the entire family love Texas. They dig the hell out of Steve Sarkisian. They believe in the program that he's building.
They just have to make sure that they aren't walking into a mess.
It makes the next eight months or so pretty clear ... don't be a mess. Just don't be a mess.
Considering how much consideration the Longhorns are being given, it's easier to point out what can't happen over what must happen in order for Manning to commit to Sarkisian and Co.
Don't get humiliated by Alabama. Win all of the games in the first half of the season that you're supposed to win. Beat Oklahoma.
Honestly, it feels that simple.
Manning knows what he's signing up for with every other big-time school that he's considering, while he only thinks he knows what Texas is going to be under Sarkisian. If Sarkisian looks like a coach that's going to be on the hot seat in 2023, Texas isn't landing Manning. A case can be made that anything other than that points favorably for the Longhorns.
In a way, his recruitment is in total cruise control. He can take visits and his time with the full knowledge that the Longhorns can't do the things he needs them to do until the actual games begin.
As long as Sarkisian has this program headed in 2023 exactly where he was hired to take it, the Longhorns will be better than fine with Manning.
No. 2 - Speaking of quarterback prospects ...
As I did last week with the historical data related to four- and five-star offensive line prospects, I've updated the historical quarterback data from the Lone Star State that I compiled two years ago to include all players ranked between 2002-2017.
Enjoy.
Let's look at the five-stars.
2002 - Vince Young (Texas)
2004 - Rhett Bomar (Oklahoma)
2006 - Matt Stafford (Georgia)
2007 - Ryan Mallett (Arkansas)
2009 - Garrett Gilbert (Texas)
2009 - Russell Shepard (LSU)
Breakdown
* Five of the six players (83.3%) were drafted by NFL teams.
* The only player that didn't get drafted (Shepard) actually played wide receiver in college and played seven seasons in the NFL.
Now let's look at the high four stars:
2004 - Stephen McGee (Texas A&M)
2004 - Robbie Reid (Oklahoma State)
2006 - Jevan Snead (Texas)
2008 - Andrew Luck (Stanford)
2009 - Tyrik Rollison (Auburn)
Breakdown
* Two of the 5 players (40.0%) were drafted by NFL teams: McGee (4th round) and Luck (1st round).
* The Longhorns signed only three in-state players in the top two tiers over a 15-year window of recruiting.
Mid Four Stars
2010 - Connor Wood (Texas)
2011 - J.W. Walsh (Oklahoma State)
2013 - J.T. Barrett (Ohio State)
2013 - Cody Thomas (Oklahoma)
2013 - Kenny Hill (Texas A&M)
2014 - Jerrod Heard (Texas)
2015 - Jarrett Stidham (Baylor)
2015 - Kyler Murray (Texas A&M)
2016 - Shane Buechele (Texas)
2017 - Sam Ehlinger (Texas)
2017 - Chris Robison (Oklahoma)
Breakdown
* 3 of the 11 players (27.3%) were drafted by NFL teams: Stidham (4th round), Murray (1st round) and Ehlinger (6th round)
* There are occasional exceptions to the rule when it comes to using NFL Draft data as a means of measuring the value of college players and Barrett obviously falls into that category after a sensational college career at Ohio State wasn't rewarded by NFL teams.
Low Four Stars
2004 - Kirby Freeman (Miami)
2007 - Jarrett Lee (LSU)
2008 - Darron Thomas (Oregon)
2008 - Robert Griffin III (Baylor)
2009 - Cody Green (Nebraska)
2009 - Shavodrick Beaver (Tulsa)
2009 - Casey Pachall (TCU)
2009 - Ryan Mossakowski (Kentucky)
2010 - James Franklin (Missouri)
2010 - Zach Lee (LSU)
2010 - Scotty Young (Texas Tech)
2011 - Jamal Turner (Nebraska)
2012 - Matt Davis (Texas A&M)
2012 - Trevor Knight (Oklahoma)
2013 - Tyrone Swoopes (Texas)
2013 - Kohl Stewart (Texas A&M)
2015 - Quentin Dormady (Tennessee)
2015 - Chad President (Tulsa)
2016 - Jalen Hurts (Alabama)
2016 - Zach Smith (Baylor)
Breakdown
* 2 of the 20 players (10.0%) were drafted by NFL teams: Griffin III (1st round) and Hurts (2nd round)
No. 3 - ICYMI ...
Orangebloods'
@Serenity Douglas spoke with a couple of Texas players this week about the ongoing off-season workouts and I thought you guys would enjoy reading a few of the highlights.
Jordan Whittington on whether he considered moving to safety this off-season: "I definitely thought about moving to safety. My high school defensive coordinator always used to tell me that I need to play safety. Everybody really offered me at safety. I ran it across a couple of people. It was definitely on my mind and definitely in the air. But, I'm here to win. Wherever you need to put me to win, let's do that."
Whittington on beating OU: "We're working and there's a different vibe going on right now. I'm excited. We're taking one game at a time, but if you're asking me, buy (on whether Texas will beat OU)."
Jake Majors on things he's looking to improve this off-season: "Number one would be strength. I feel like as we continue to reach the goals that we want ... we're playing better competition. In week two, we have Alabama. We're going to be going against guys that belong in the SEC and it's going to be a different sort of game. Hopefully, we've learned. We kind of had a wake-up call against Arkansas. It's a different type of game whenever it's the SEC. So, No.1 would be strength. Probably pass sets, just becoming consistent where it's like second-nature."
Majors on Hudson Card: "He's not going to act like (the quarterback battle) isn't happening because it is. Personally, from the outside looking in, he's handling it pretty well. He talks to Quinn (Ewers) and Maalik (Murphy) a lot. He wants to get to work with those guys. He wants to continue to get better, which is what I love about him. He's never satisfied. That's the type of guy we need in this program."
No. 4 - The only Longhorn playing in the Super Bowl ...
There are a lot of reasons to love rooting for Trey Hopkins. After a very solid, but unspectacular career in Austin with the Longhorns, Hopkins went to Cincinnati as an undrafted rookie free agent and the path to playing in the biggest football game in the world eight years later was no walk in the park.
He was placed on injured reserve in year one. He failed to make the team in 2015 and spent a year on the practice squad. In his third attempt to make the team, he failed to survive the final cuts, only to spend almost another year on the practice squad. In the last game of the 2016 season, he was promoted to the official roster and played in his first NFL game.
From that moment, Hopkins has been a starter and he was playing against Aaron Donald in the Super Bowl.
What I find fascinating about Hopkins' recruitment is that the Longhorns toyed with the idea of letting the nation's No. 64 overall prospect slip through the program's fingers. There was actually a moment very early in the 2010 recruiting class when Mack Brown and his staff were going out of their way to get the word out that the Longhorns would not be taking any offensive linemen in the class because of the heavy number of linemen in the program.
There was a lot of skepticism among observers of the program that the coaching staff would pass on Hopkins, but people inside the program were steadfast in telling Orangebloods that the staff was going to stay the course on the plan of taking zero offensive linemen.
So, what happened?
There was a huge uproar on the Internet and Hopkins drove to Austin without an offer in hand (or the promise of receiving one) to let the Texas coaches know that he would basically end his recruitment with an offer. The Longhorns offered and Hopkins did exactly as he said,
becoming the first commitment of the 2010 recruiting class.
"I had been hoping to hear from them. Even before I had a chance to talk to the coaches, I was researching the school, waiting to hear from them," Hopkins told Orangebloods after he committed. "(North Shore head) Coach (David) Aymond had talked to me, told me to be patient. Then I got an email from them. My family and I decided to take a trip and talk to the coaches. We talked to them and really liked them. Then I got the offer today. As soon as they offered me, I decided to go ahead and commit."
What a story his career has turned out to be.
No. 5 - No need to freak out about what happened in Waco ...
This just in: the Big 12 is a minefield during the college basketball season!
The Longhorns got taken to the woodshed in Waco at the hands of a Baylor team that came out ready to dish out a helping of its A-game.
After a three game winning streak reminded fans just how far this team can go when it plays well, fans were reminded of what can happen when it doesn't. Texas played timidly and when it was over, Chris Beard sent out his entire starting line-up to talk to the media in the name of accountability.
Tough nights in the Big 12 are going to happen. Ask Baylor. Seven days prior to its win over Texas, the Bears got bloodied in a road loss to the same Jayhawks that the Longhorns beat on Monday.
Again, it happens. Texas simply needs to win its home games and as many road games as possible. If the team does that between now and the start of the Big 12 Tournament, it'll likely be in a very good position heading into the NCAA Tournament.
Keep your eyes on the prize, folks. The Longhorns are back on the road Tuesday in Normal and then the Red Raiders come to Austin this weekend. Winning on Saturday against the Red Raiders would make for a good week. Winning both games would represent a great week.
No. 6 - 10 Quick Thoughts on the Super Bowl ...
... Matt Stafford has a Super Bowl ring. I feel like this is the kind of thing that should give everyone hope. No matter what anyone says about him moving forward, he'll always have this moment.
... Totally different teams, eras and moments, but that last drive did remind me of the 49ers going down the field against the Bengals in XXIII. On both drives, the Bengals just couldn't stop a great wide receiver from taking control of the game. Now someone tell Cooper Kupp to shave for goodness sakes.
... Aaron Donald's new signature moment in. Hall of Fame career is making the defensive play of the game on 4th down with the Super Bowl on the line. Feels so appropriate.
... Jalen Ramsey got beat a couple of times for big gains, but he kept Ja'Marr Chase from doing what Cooper Kupp did.
... Odell Beckham might have won MVP honors if he hadn't suffered a mid-game injury.
... Von Miller is now a two-time Super Bowl champion. I'm guessing he's a first-ballot guy when the HOF rolls around.
... Joe Burrow played very well... just not well enough.
... Sean McVay is now a made man.
... Tee Higgins was better than Chase on Sunday. I didn't see that coming a mile away.
... I'd be seriously tilted if I happened to be a Bengals fan.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Buy) I do it every year. I have to admit to wanting to the day off, though. This one came together fairly later than normal.
(Sell/Buy) If by close, you mean they might win a single playoff game next year ... maybe. It's hard to buy in for more than that. Finding the right way to approach baseball coverage simply needed more time than I thought it would, especially after the first round of interviews in the summer. The standard that Dustin set was so high that over time it became obvious that the right answer wasn't finding one person to try and have that person attempt to compete with the gold medal standard of the industry, The team framework will allow us to try something different.
(Sell) You just described a playoff-level team and that's not Texas.
(Sell) That could work, I suppose, but it could also be very hard to pull off with the players Texas has and the fact that Alabama might turn the game into a track meet with its passing game.
(Buy/Sell/Buy/Buy) It's not impossible to believe that all four of these should be "buys," but that feels like asking for too much from Ewers.
(Sell) Not unless something happens to Bijan Robinson and/or Roschon Johnson.
(Buy) I'm an optimist tonight.
(Buy) Yup, I would think so because of all of the built-implications.
(Buy) As it relates to player personnel, yes, he seems to be very in tune with what he needs.
(Sell) That would mean so many bad things.
(Buy) I think they'll be better to the naked eye, but that's a fairly low bar. I'm not expecting Austin to make the playoffs.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the sports weekend ...
... I'm looking forward to seeing what James Harden does with the Joel Embiid this season, but I am scared of how much money the Sixers will be paying him when there's gray in his beard. YOLO!
... Worse teammate: Ben Simmons or James Harden?
... Baylor losing Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua on Saturday for the rest of the season means it might have won the battle on Saturday, but will end up losing the war.
... Still leaning heavy towards going for a deep run for Jayden Ivey and the Boilermakers.
... Rick Barnes and Co. have won four straight games since the loss in Austin.
... No captions needed, indeed.
... We need a Liverpool/Man City best of seven series.
... Brighton might be the fourth best team in the Premier League, even if it isn’t in the Top mix.
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Super Bowl Halftime Shows ...
As far as halftime shows go, I have to admit ... the Dr. Dre, Snoop, Eminem, 50 and Mary J. show was waaaaay better than I expected it to be.
Maybe I'm old, but I enjoyed it. How much so? Let's do a Top 00 all-time SB halftime show list.
10. Bruce Springsteen & the E Street Band (2009)
9. Aerosmith, Britney Spears, 'NSync, Nelly & Mary J. Blige (2001)
8. Lady Gaga (2017)
7. U2 (2002)
6. Janet Jackson, Justin Timberlake, P. Diddy, Kid Rock, Jessica Simpson and Nelly (2004)
5. Shakira and Jennifer Lopez (2020)
4. Beyonce (2013)
3. Dr. Dre, Snoop, Eminem, 50 and Mary J. (2022)
2. Michael Jackson (1993)
1. Prince (2007)
No. 10 - And Finally...
Haven's first softball game was rained out on Saturday, but we worked on hitting, throwing, fielding and the rules of the game all week in preparation.
Bring on the double-headers!
