It remains to be seen whether Texas true freshman Shane Buechele possesses the force as a major college quarterback, but in the battle for galactic supremacy at the position that will determine whether this decade is remembered as UT’s version of the Destruction of Alderaan, this boy with a family full of Sooners currently has the higher ground.
A little more than a month ago, if you’d taken an informal poll (dare I say) inside the football building about the long-term future of the Texas quarterback position, a lot of important voices would have pointed to Austin Westlake star Sam Ehlinger, who won’t be on the 40 Acres until his senior season in high school runs its course.
From his skill as a passer to his moxie on the field and his chops as a leader on the field, Ehlinger possesses so much of what Charlie Strong wants on the field as a quarterback that it wouldn’t have surprised me at all to see the coaches going to bed at night with a picture of him throwing the football on their pajamas.
Don’t get it twisted, there was genuine excitement about the promise of Buechele as well, but special sparkles developed in the eyes when folks would speak of Ehlinger. Deep down, there was a sense that all things being equal, he’d emerge as the chosen one. And then a funny thing happened in the last month … Buechele all but cemented his position in the final weeks of the spring as the team’s starting quarterback in 2016.
In a world where Tyrone Swoopes starts and finishes the season at quarterback (and presumably doesn’t bounce in and out of the line-up all season), then the advantage that Buechele would hold over Ehlinger in a 2017 starting quarterback battle would be limited to a season of practice. However, in a world where Buechele starts for the majority of the season and experiences some momentum inside of the growth that takes place, the conversation about Ehlinger’s immediate contributions will be severely muted.
When Colt McCoy won the quarterback job in 2006 over Jevan Snead, the consensus opinion at the time was that Snead’s long-term upside was higher than McCoy’s, but by the time he had picked up a win over Oklahoma and nearly emerged as a Heisman finalist in the 2006 season, most conversations about any kind of battle just kind of died. Snead was no fool and he got the hell out of Dodge rather than waste another second trying to reclaim anything close to even footing.
Of course, the current situation is quite different than the one that took place a decade ago.
For starters, Buechele and Ehlinger aren’t on the same eligibility clock, which McCoy and Snead were at the end of the 2006 season. It’s not like the coaches were going to be able to convince Snead to take a redshirt and wait until 2010 for one potential season as a starter. If you’re Ehlinger, the worst case situation might actually be the most ideal, as a locked in Buechele as a starter would allow for a redshirt season and at least two seasons as the starter once Buechele departed.
The other thing that is quite different about the two scenarios is McCoy’s supporting cast in 2006 was light years ahead of what Buechele will work with. When Texas beat Oklahoma that year in the Cotton Bowl, McCoy had an offensive line that included Justin Blalock, Kasey Studdard, Lyle Sendlein and Tony Hills protecting him up front, while his supporting cast in the skill positions included Jamaal Charles, Jordan Shipley, Quan Cosby, Selvin Young, Jermichael Finley and Limas Sweed. Literally, every single one of those dudes played on Sunday and some still are.
If you want to know how a freshman quarterback posts a 4:1 TD/INT ratio, playing with 10 future pros is an awesome way to get there and we all know that Buechele won’t be working with that kind of Death Star of offensive firepower.
What we’re left with is a fivesome of scenarios and whichever one occurs will likely define the 2016 season and the state of the 2017 off-season.
a. Buechele emerges as a star in his true freshman season and the discussion of the quarterback position as a whole changes completely from what it has been for the last six seasons. In this situation, a redshirt year becomes very possible for Ehlinger and the bridge between both players would be absolutely perfect from the program’s perspective.
b. Buechele emerges as an up and down player, whose highs are high and whose lows are mighty low … yanno … like most freshmen forced into this type of situation. In a battle for the 2017 job, he’d start out as the favorite because of his experience, but nothing will have happened on the field yet to rule Ehlinger out in the competition.
c. Buechele emerges as a player in over his head when forced into such early responsibility and Ehlinger will arrive to fight in the competition with only slightly uneven footing in 2017.
d. An injury occurs that limits Buechele for much of the season, making a lot of this conversation and conjecture a ridiculous moot point, depending on the specifics.
e. Nothing Buechele does matters because Ehlinger is so damn good that he’ll just take the job because he’s that damn good.
My money has a situation like option B likely unfolding, as I think this is a team that will take some lumps in the first half of the season, but I could see the Longhorns being a team few would want to play for grins in the final half of the season.
What’s really interesting about all of this from my vantage point is that a month ago, I think the in-house answers in the Texas football offices would have looked different than they do today. Will the in-house answers change yet again in the coming months? Or even multiple times in the coming months?
We’ll see.
For now, Buechele has the higher ground over his future competition and the next seven months will be all about making sure he doesn’t give it away.
No. 2 – The state of Texas and the NFL Draft ...
After providing analysis last week from the 2016 NFL Draft displaying the importance of recruiting when it comes to acquiring and developing future NFL talent, I thought I would take a look at the data compiled over three days from the Lone Star State.
While we have to be very careful not to make any huge conclusions because of the limited sample size, there’s still some fascinating data points to observe.
Here's the final breakdown of numbers once you include all seven rounds of the draft:
Five stars (6.1): 2
Four stars (6.0): 0
Four stars (5.9): 0
Four stars (5.8): 6
Three stars (5.7) 6
Three stars (5.6) 5
Three stars (5.5) 2
Two stars (5.4) 3
Two stars (5.3) 0
Two stars (5.2) 1
Unranked: 3
If we take those numbers and place them against the average Rivals class from the state of Texas from 2011-2013, here’s what the numbers look like through seven rounds and how they compare to the nationwide numbers (national numbers in parenthesis and bolded).
a. One out of every 1.50 (1.63) five-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
b. Zero out of every 3.33 (2.02) top-tier (6.0) four-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
c. Zero out of every 8.33 (3.25) mid-tier (5.9) four-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
d. One out of every 4.44 (5.39) low-tier (5.8) four-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
e. One out of every 6.33
(11.86) top-tier (5.7) three-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
f. One out of every 12.33
(15.71) mid-tier (5.6) three-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
g. One out of every 47.33
(19.89) low-tier (5.5) three-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
h. One out of every 31.11
(46.15) top-tier (5.4) two-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
i. Zero out of every 51.33
(172.11) mid-tier (5.3) two-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
j. One out of every 37.67
(75.71) low-tier (5.2/5.1) two-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds
Broken down by star groupings alone, the numbers look like this:
a. One out of every 1.50
(1.63) five-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
b. One out of every 6.39
(4.09) four-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
c. One out of every 14.95
(16.04) three-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
d. One out of every 45.58
(67.04) two-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
No. 3 – Ranking the quarterbacks in the Big 12 ...
Out of curiosity, I wondered where I might slot Shane Buechele among other Big 12 players at the quarterback position coming out of the spring and I thought the best way to start was to slot each school’s projected quarterback into four tiers.
Returning starters with 150+ efficiency ratings
Baylor sophomore Jarrett Stidham (199.0) or senior Seth Russell (189.7)
Oklahoma senior Baker Mayfield (173.3)
Returning starters with 130+ efficiency ratings
Oklahoma State junior Mason Rudolph (149.1)
Texas Tech junior Pat Mahomes (147.2)
West Virginia senior Skyler Howard (134.7)
Returning starters with sub-130 efficiency ratings
Iowa State junior Joel Lannon (122.7)
Kansas junior Montell Cozart (127.4)
Newcomers
TCU junior Kenny Hill or freshman Foster Sawyer
Kansas State junior Jesse Ertz
The eyeball test tells me that Buechele has the talent to play among that second group of players listed and if that can happen, the Longhorns will have a chance to win eight or nine games, but my brain also reminds me that in the last six years, the Longhorns have had only one season of quarterback play that even surpasses what Cozart accomplished in limited playing time a year ago.
So, where would I slot Buechele right now?
Probably right behind Mahomes at No. 5 and in front of Howard. From a pure talent standpoint, I’d probably rank him behind only Stidham, but you can’t rank him in that territory until he proves it on the field.
No. 4 – Scattershooting on the Longhorns ...
... Given that he finished the season on St. Louis' active roster and averaged 4.3 yards per carry in very limited playing time, in retrospect it's pretty surprising that some NFL team didn't take a flyer on Malcolm Brown in the draft last year.
I know he didn't live up to the standards of a five-star, but if you finish you're career as the No.9 all-time leading rusher in the history of a school that will likely sport seven College Hall of Fame players in front of him when it's all said and done, you can't be a bust, right? Especially when you become a pro player? Right?
Players he out-rushed in his career: Hodges Mitchell, Eric Metcalf, Steve Worster, Shon Mitchell and Priest Holmes.
… Is Collin Johnson a better college prospect than Lovell Pinkney?
.... Thought that crossed my mind this weekend was that Marcus Tubbs might have been the best evaluation of the entire Mack Brown era in recruiting. When he was offered, he was just some basketball player that the Longhorns were taking a flyer on because Mack was trying to build some recruiting momentum, but for him to turn into the player he was after putting on 70-80 more pounds over the course of a few years was really quite remarkable.
… Can you believe Texas once had Casey Hampton and Shaun Rogers on the same defensive line?
… Someone asked me tyhis weekend to name a former Texas player that would have been a first round pick if it hadn’t been for injuries and the first name that came to mind was former Jenks, Oklahoma five-star defensive end Bryan Pickryl, who was a member of the 2002 class, started as a true freshman and was an absolute baller. His shoulders just couldn’t hold up.
... Stat that might blow your mind: Garrett Gilbert is listed 24 times in the
official Texas record book for quarterback records. Bobby Layne and James Street combine for 13 listings.
No. 5 – Buy or sell …
(As always, all of these questions were submitted by actual Orangebloods subscribers.)
BUY or SELL: Augie is the head coach at Texas in 2017?
(Sell) It’ll be fascinating to see how hard he’s going to push back against stepping down, but the sense behind the scenes is that change needs to be made. The way this season is ending makes it easier for Texas to demand change. Ultimately, I think Mike Perrin is going to have to be the bad guy for the first time since he’s been at Texas. After all, he is the athletic director, right?
BUY or SELL: There is more reason for excitement for the offense since 2009. This year's unit will see addition by subtraction (specifically no Gray, Doyle or Flowers)?
(Sell) In retrospect, it’s easy to forget the excitement that arrived when Bryan Harsin took over as the offensive coordinator and was not only going to overhaul the offense into the Boise State mold, but he had five-star backs and seemingly a strong fleet of receivers with which to attack opposing defenses.
BUY or SELL: Charlie solves the kicker problem before the season starts?
(Sell) Charlie
solves the problem? If by solve you mean that he ends up having an answer show up out of nowhere in time for the fall, I suppose I can buy that, but college head coaches rarely solve the place-kicking problems … they usually either survive them or they don’t. Trust this, if there was truly a game-changing positive that could be had in the kicking game, Strong would put him on scholarship faster than you can say Outback punter.
BUY or SELL: There will be, at least, two more football transfers from Texas squad before the start of summer practice for the ND game?
(Buy) On the average, the Longhorns have seen a turnover of approximately six scholarship players each off-season.
BUY or SELL: Isaiah Taylor wasn't invited to the NBA draft combine, declaring early was a mistake?
(Sell) Let’s see how things unfold in the coming months and years before declaring mistakes.
BUY or SELL: Your outlook on this years ceiling raised after the spring game?
(Sell) My over/under for wins this season is 7.5 and I’m leaning towards the under at the moment in the regular season.
BUY or SELL: Kent Perkins gets to slide inside to guard instead of playing right tackle?
(Sell) I think there will be a better “other” option inside than outside. Texas just doesn’t have the options available to move him inside.
BUY or SELL: With refusing to hold out of state camps in FL, LA, or CA, Strong is once again showing he is slow to adjust?
(Buy) Strong is leaning a little too much on the Mack Brown recruiting philosophy.
BUY or SELL: The chances of Texas going 6-6 in the regular season, are less than those of them going 8-4 in regular season?
(Buy) Yes, otherwise my over/under for the season would be 6.5.
BUY or SELL: Its really worth the drive out to Bastrop, Texas to check out one of the largest collections of exotic boots in Texas at the Texas Boot Company, and the complimentary margaritas and cold beer while you shop are a nice touch, too?
(Buy) Can I get a hell yes? The wife wants me to let you know she’ll be heading your way this week.
No. 6 – Texas Baseball Weekend in a Gif …
No. 7 – The smoking gun in Waco …
A lot has been written about the Baylor Rape Scandal in the last few weeks and months, but I want to state once again that everything that probably needs to be known about what’s been going on inside that program can be found in the initial police investigation in 2013 involving Shawn Oakman.
Our sources have told us that Pepper Hamilton knows about the details of that situation.
Our sources have told us that very specific questions need to be asked of Art Briles about his role in what happened in that situation in 2013. Our sources have told us that he needs to answer questions about whether he had any contact with the alleged victim. Our sources have told us that Briles also needs to be asked about what he asked of the alleged victim, if in fact he had any contact.
One of these days, Briles has to answer questions, right?
If there's nothing to hide, then full transparency shouldn't be an issue.
No. 8 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
… I didn’t have the heart to tell Amir Kahn when he was on my radio show a little more than a week ago that I thought he’d get knocked out inside of nine rounds, which turned out to be a compliment when you consider that he didn’t make it through the sixth round.
… Enough, Canelo. It’s time to get in the ring at 160 pounds against GGG. May the boxing world belong to the winner.
... Welcome back to NBA super-star status, Kevin Durant. We've all been waiting for you to go nuclear in this post-season with so much on the line and on Sunday night, he delivered such a performance in emphatic fashion. If Durant can pull two more of those performances out of his hat, the Thunder can win this series.
... The wildcard in this series remains Durant. No offense to Kawaii Leonard, but his ceiling in a game like that isn't as high as Durant's. That's not to say that he won't outplay him in the final best of three that remains, it just means that if Durant gets cooking like he was on Sunday night, he becomes peerless on the floor.
... All that being said, give me the Spurs in six.
… I’m kind of getting the sense that Steph Curry might not play at all in the Western Conference semi-finals, which feels rather ominous. As a basketball fan, I feel like I’m on the verge of being cheated out of one hell of an NBA Finals … er … Western Conference Final.
… Goodness gracious, the playoffs have exposed the Eastern Conference for the fraud it’s been for most of LeBron James’ career. The downside of living in Cleveland is living in Cleveland, but the upside if a walk in the park to the NBA Finals each year.
… Be better, Dwayne Wade. You’ve played games against Canadian teams before. Respect the anthem. When you say you aren’t a disrespectful person, should I not point out all of those times you’ve not been respectful?
… The Cubs are going to win the World Series. I mean … what could happen?
… Shame on the Kansas City Chiefs for drafting Tyreek Hill. Shame on them.
… If Man City falls out of the top four in the Premier League and isn’t in the Champions League in 2016-17 … I mean … that’s not going to happen, right?
… Sssshhhhh … don’t tell anyone, but the L.A. Galaxy is really good. I haven’t seen an MLS team this year that can match up talent-wise.
… It kind of deserves it sown section, no?
No. 9 – Game of Thrones - Live blog stream of conscious thoughts...
The following are my stream of conscious thoughts on season-six, episode two of Game of Thrones.
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a. How long are they going to make us wait before we get to the Jon story-line? Over/under 5 minutes. Tough call, but I think they have to begin with the elephant in the room, right? Give me the under.
b. Normally, I dig the show open, but let's just get on with it, damnit! I get it... lots of maps.
c. Longest black, silent screen ever.
d. Ser Davos is a hell of a guy to have on your side. We should all have a Ser Davos protecting our back..
e. The look on Jon's face when he says, "I failed," is just a crusher. Can you imagine waking up from the dead and realizing that outside those doors awaits a bunch of guys that murdered you?
f. Sam has such a way with women. Man, it's good to have him back.
g. You had to know that we weren't getting the secret to the Tower of Joy tonight. Episode nine.
h. I don't want to say that Bran is a hostage, but he's kind of a hostage.
i. Lady Tyrell with the early verbal hay-maker of the year.
j. I get the feeling Arya will be killing someone in episode four.
k. "My watch has ended."
Fair enough.
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No. 10 - And finally…
I couldn’t complete this special Mother’s Day column without expressing my love and gratification to all of the women in my life that have shaped me as a person over the years.
From my incredible mother (Alice) to my paternal grandmother (Viola) to my mother-in-law (Julie) ... I love you. Thank you.
To the sensational mother of my two-year old twins, just hang in there. Breakfast without the kids screaming at the table, trying to play with cars in an old person’s hair and pouring coffee on the table has to be around the corner.
Hold the rope!
