Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (College Football's Real Top 10)
- Thread starter Ketchum
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I think you're wrong.
Open Range tries too hard to be an Eastwood flick.
Costner can't pull off the anti-hero the way Eastwood can. Which is fair, because Eastwood has only played that role in like 95% of the movies he's been in.
Dances with Wolves is a much better movie and western than Open Range.
If I were making a top 10 of Westerns...Open range wouldn't be in my Top 10. May not even make the top 20. I'd have half a dozen Eastwood flicks on my list before I got around to even thinking about Open Range.
Hell... I think Silverado is a better western than Open Range.
I say that...as a fan of Open Range. I enjoy the movie. But it isn't one the greatest ever.
Is it the case that we have always had better "rated" talent than OU just didn't develop the players or did Lincoln Riley control the high end player count during those years? Just trying to understand if OU's roster has gotten worse or if ours has just gotten that much better.
Agree 100% but one of my all time favorite lines is at the end of Open Range where Costner tells his love interest, "How's this going to work if you don't do what I say?" and she just smiles at him. Great scene.
Texas sorely lacked super blue chips for much of the last decade before Sark arrived.
Have you watched it lately ? The movie is really really bad and his performance is embarrassing.
Solid list otherwise. You are correct regarding No Way Out …… not a typical “Costner” movie but it’s one of his best.
I've always kind of liked Robin Hood.
Appreciate the knowledge! Truly impressive your responsiveness and killer content!Texas sorely lacked super blue chips for much of the last decade before Sark arrived.
I believe so.
Been awhile since I watched it.
If I'm not mistaken, the character he plays (Charley) has a shady past, which is why he is driving cattle with Duval (Boss). Staying on the move, keeping his head down and staying out of trouble. He's doing that because he's a wanted man elsewhere. I believe he mentions his shady past to the Annette Benning character, in an attempt to push her away.
In the lead up to the climatic scene Charley tells Boss how the fight will go down and what to expect and how to act. Its also why Charley pops Butler (Kim Coates character) in the head at the jump (such a great scene/moment by the way), and why you know, at the moment with 100% clarity, Charley is a true killer with experiance.
If I'm not mistaken Charley has remorse for what he did and he regrets it. Although, he never justified his past (i.e. it was wartime actions, his family wasn't slaughtered and he had to seek revenge, etc). He was just an outlaw that turned his life around.
Vegas agrees with you in a big way and it’s reflected in their power ranking and WL total.
He's still the "good guy", though, even if he has a complicated past.
I suppose knowing more about that past might make him more of a Walter White than we know, which might point to your point.
It goes back to the point I constantly make about the true value of most four stars. 247 not only refuses to acknowledge it, but it's leaning into the con in a big way on purpose.
Part of the reason why I'm leading this week off with the subject of super blue chips on 2024 college football rosters is related to the fact that I did the original data dive in January before the final rankings were completed in the 2024 rankings and before the final decisions from a few high school/portal prospects had been made.
It just needed to be done.
Another part of the reason was related to NIL. In order to understand the money involved in NIL you have to know what kind of roster the top schools are paying for. Oregon is rocking with its quack out at the moment, but this data does a decent job explaining why.
Another part of the reason is that 247 came out with its blue chip ratio numbers for 2024 and I kind of think that any metric that counts a five-star player the same as a national 300 player is kind of silly. 247s Blue Chip data would have you believe OU's roster is more talented than UT's and yet when you inspect the elite of the elite talent within each program, you'll understand why that notion is silly.
So, here we are ... as you'll see, OU doesn't really need to be spoken in the same context as Texas, 247's Blue Chip Ratio be damned.
In order for a player to earn a consensus super blue chip rating, it has to earn two of the following rankings from the major services:
Rivals (6.0+), 247 (95+), ESPN (85+), On3 (96+)
In order for a transfer to count as a super blue chip, he needed to rank as a Top 32 Portal prospect by two of the three major services with Portal rankings (Rivals/247/On3)
Here's how the national Top 10 breaks down...
1. Ohio State
Total number of super blue chips: 29
Transfers: (5) 2023 CB Davison Igbinosun (Ole Miss - 247/On3), 2024 DB Caleb Downs (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), 2024 RB Quinshon Judkins (Ole Miss - Rivals/247/On3), 2024 QB Will Howard (Kansas State - Rivals/On3) and 2024 QB Julian Sayin (Ohio State - Rivals/247/On3)
2024: (6) WR Jeremiah Smith (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), DB Aaron Scott (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), WR Mylan Graham (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), QB Air Noland (Rivals/247/ESPN), DE Eddrick Houston (Rivals/247//ESPN) and DB Bryce West (Rivals/ESPN)
2023: (6) WR Carnell Tate (Rivals/247/On3), WR Brandon Inniss (Rivals/247/ESPN), DT Jason Moore (Rivals/247), DB Jermaine Matthews (Rivals/On3/ESPN), DB Calvin Simpson-Hunt (Rivals/On3), and WR Noah Rogers (247/On3/ESPN)
2022: (4) LB CJ Hicks (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), Ath Alex Styles (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), QB Devin Brown (Rivals/247/On3/) and DE Kenyatta Jackson (Rivals/On3)
2021: (7) OL Donovan Jackson (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), WR Emeka Egbuke (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), DE JT Tuimoloau (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), DE Jack Sawyer (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), RB TreVeyon Henderson (247/On3/ESPN), CB Jordan Hancock (247/On3) and WR Jayden Ballard (247/On3/ESPN)
2020: (1) WR Gee Scott Jr. (Rivals/247)
Transferred Out/No Longer in the Program: (5) 2022 Edge (247/ESPN), 2021 QB Quinn Ewers (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), 2021 CB JK Johnson (Rivals/On3), 2021 QB Kyle McCord (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN) and 2020 WR Julian Fleming (Rivals/247/ESPN)
Transfer Rate: 13.9%
In the NFL: (4) 2021 DL Mike Hall (On3/247), 2020 OL Paris Johnson (Rivals/247/ESPN), 2020 WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Rivals/247) and 2020 QB CJ Stroud (Rivals/247)
2. Georgia
Total number of super blue chips: 28
Transfers: (2) 2023 WR Dominic Lovett (Missouri - Rivals/247/On3) and 2024 RB Trevor Etienne (Florida - Rivals/On3)
2024: (8) DB Ellis Robinson (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), LB Justin Williams (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), DB K.J. Bolden (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), DL Joseph Jonah-Ajonye (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), LB Chris Cole (247/On3/ESPN), TE Jaden Reddell (On3/ESPN), CB Demello Jones (On3/247) and RB Nate Frazier (Rivals/247/On3)
2023: (9) DE Samuel M'Pemba (Rivals/ESPN), DE Damon Wilson (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), DT Jordan Hall (Rivals/247/On3), DB A.J. Harris (Rivals/247/ESPN), OL Monroe Freeling (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), LB Raylen Wilson (247/On3/ESPN), S Joenel Aguero (247/On3/ESPN), LB Troy Bowles (247/ESPN) and TE Pearce Spurlin (Rivals/On3)
2022: (7) DB Jaheim Singletary (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), DL Mykel Williams (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), DB Daylen Everette (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), DB Malaki Starks (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), RB Brandon Robinson (Rivals/ESPN), OL Earnest Greene (Rivals/247/On3) and LB Jalon Walker (247/On3/ESPN)
2021: (1) LB Smael Mondon (247/On3/ESPN)
2020: (1) WR Arian Smith (247/ESPN)
Transferred Out/No Longer in the Program: (6) 2022 Bear Alexander (Rivals/On3/ESPN), 2022 LB Marvin Jones Jr. (Rivals/247/On3), 2021 QB Brock Vandagriff (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), 2021 LB Xavian Sorey (Rivals/247/ESPN), 2021 DB Nyland Green (247/On3), 2020 LB MJ Sherman (Rivals/ESPN)
Transfer Rate: 15.8%
In the NFL: (6) 2021 TE Brock Bowers (ON3/247), 2021 OL Amarius Sims (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), 2020 CB Kelee Ringo (Rivals/247/ESPN), 2020 OL Broderick Jones (Rivals/247ESPN), 2020 DL Jalen Carter (Rivals/247/ESPN) and 2020 TE Darnell Washington (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN)
3. Alabama
Total number of super blue chips: 25
Transfers: (2) OT Kadyn Proctor (Rivals/247/On3) and OL Parker Brailsford (247/On3)
2024: (5) WR Ryan Williams (Rivals/247/ON3/ESPN), DB Jaylen Mbakwe (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), CB Zay Mincey (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), DB Zabien Brown (Rivals/247/On3) and Edge Noah Carter (On3/247)
2023: (8) DE Yhonzae Pierre (Rivals/247/On3), DE Keon Kelly (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), DB Jahlil Hurley (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), WR Jalen Hale (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), RB Justice Haynes (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), DT James Smith (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), DE Qua Russaw (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN) and DL Jordan Renaud (ON3/ESPN)
2022: (6) DE Jeremiah Alexander (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), LB Jihaad Campbell (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), WR Emmanuel Henderson (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), QB Ty Simpson (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), OL Tyler Booker (247/On3/ESPN) and DL Khurtis Perry (247/ESPN)
2021: (3) LB Keanu Koht (Rivals/247/On3), LB Deontae Lawson (On3/247) and DT Damon Payne (Rivals/247/ESPN)
2020: (1) DT Tim Smith (Rivals/247)
Transferred Out/No Longer in the Program: (17) 2024 QB Julian Sayin (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), 2023 DB Caleb Downs (Rivals/247/ESPN), 2023 DB Dezz Ricks (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), 2022 WR Aaron Anderson (Rivals/247/On3), 2022 WR Shazz Preston (Rivals/ESPN), 2022 WR Isaiah Bond (On3/247), 2022 LB Shawn Murphy (Rivals/ESPN), 2022 OL Elijah Pritchett (Rivals/247/On3), 2021 OL Tommy Brockermeyer (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), 2021 WR Agiye Hall (On3/ESPN), 2021 RB Camar Wheaton (Rivals/247/ESPN), 2021 WR Jojo Earle (Rivals/On3/ESPN), 2021 Christian Leary (Rivals/On3), 2021 DL Monkell Goodwine (Rivals/On3), 2021 WR Ja'Corey Brooks (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), 2020 LB Drew Sanders (Rivals/247/ESPN) and 2020 LB Demouy Kennedy (Rivals/247)
Transfer Rate: 34.7%
Headed to the In the NFL: (9) Transfer WR Jermaine Burton, 2021 OL J.C. Latham (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), 2021 DB Kool-Aid McKinstry (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), 2021 LB Dallas Turner (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), 2021 DB Terrion Arnold (Rivals/247/On3), 2020 DE Will Anderson (Rivals/247/ESPN), 2020 QB Bryce Young (Rivals/247/ESPN), 2020 LB Chris Braswell (Rivals/247/ESPN) and 2020 Jase McClellan (Rivals/ESPN)
4. Texas
Total number of super blue chips: 19
Transfers: (3) 2023 QB Quinn Ewers (Ohio State - 247/On3), 2024 WR Isaiah Bond (Alabama - Rivals/247/On3), and 2024 DE Trey Moore (UTSA - 247/On3)
2024: (5) DE Colin Simmons (Rivals/247/On3/ESP)), OL Brandon Baker (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), WR Ryan Wingo (Rivals/247/ESPN), CB Kobe Black (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN) and DB Xavier Filsaime (Rivals/247/ON3/ESPN)
2023: (7) QB Arch Manning (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), WR Johntay Cook (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), LB Anthony Hill (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), RB Cedric Baxter (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), DB Malik Muhammad (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), S Derek Williams (247/On3/ESPN) and Ath Jelani McDonald (247/On3)
2022: (3) OL DJ Campbell (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), OL Kelvin Banks (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), and OL Neto Umeozulu (On3/ESPN)
2021: None
2020: (1) DL Alfred Collins (247/ESPN)
Transferred Out/No Longer in the Program: (2) Ja'Quinden Jackson (247/ESPN) and CB Terrance Brooks (Rivals/On3)
Transfer Rate: 8.70%
In the NFL: (4) Transfer WR Adonai Mitchell, 2021 TE Ja'Tavian Sanders (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), 2021 WR Xavier Worthy (On3/ESPN) and 2020 RB Bijan Robinson (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN)
5. Oregon:
Total number of super blue chips: 14
Transfers: (5) 2023 DE Jordan Burch (South Carolina - Rivals/247). 2024 WR Evan Stewart (Texas A&M - Rivals/247/On3), 2024 QB Dante Moore (UCLA - Rivals/247), Jabbar Muhammad (Rivals/247/On3) and 2024 QB Dillon Gabriel (OU - Rivals/On3)
2024: (5) WR Gatlin Bair (Rivals/247/On3), Edge Elijah Rushing (247/ESPN), S Aaron Flowers (Rivals/On3), CB Ify Obidegwu (247/ESPN) and DL Aydin Breland (247ESPN))
2023: (2) DE Matayo Uiagalelei (Rivals/247/ESPN) and Jurrian Dickey (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN)
2022: (1) OL Josh Conerly Jr. (Rivals/247/ESPN)
2021: (0) None
2020: (1) DB Donta Manning (Rivals/247/ESPN)
Transferred Out/No Longer in the Program: (4) 2021 QB Ty Thompson (Rivals/On3/ESPN), 2021 OL Kingsley Suamataia (Rivals/247/On3), 2022 CB Jalil Yucker (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), and 2020 LB Justin Flowe (Rivals/247/ESPN)
Transfer Rate: 26.7%
In the NFL: (2) 2021 WR Troy Franklin (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN) and 2020 LB Noah Sewell (Rivals/247/ESPN)
6. Texas A&M
Total number of super blue chips: 13
Transfers: (2) DE Nic Scourton (Purdue - Rivals/247/On37) and DB Desmond Ricks (Alabama - Rivals/247)
2024: (1) Ath Terry Bussey (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN)
2023: (3) DT David Hicks Jr. (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), RB Rueben Owens (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN) and OL Chase Bisontis (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN)
2022: (5) DL Shemar Stewart (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), QB Conner Weigman (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), DT Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), DE Enai White (247/On3/ESPN) and DB Bryce Anderson (247/On3/ESPN)
2021: (2) DL Shemar Turner (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN) and OL Reuben Fatheree II (Rivals/On3)
2020: None
Transferred Out/No Longer in the Program: (11) 2022 DL Walter Nolan (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), 2022 WR Evan Stewart (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), 2022 DE Lebbeus Overton (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), 2022 CB Denver Harris (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), 2022 DL Anthony Lucas (Rivals/247/On3), 2022 WR Chris Marshall (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), 2022 OL PJ Williams (247/ESPN), 2021 RB LJ Johnson (Rivals/247), 2021 DE Tunmise Adeleye (Rivals/ESPN), 2020 WR Demond Demas (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN) and 2020 DE Donell Harris (Rivals/247)
Transfer Rate: 45.8%
In the NFL: (2) 2020 DB Jaylon Jones (Rivals/247/ESPN) and 2020 DB Antonio Johnson (Rivals/247)
7. Miami
Total number of super blue chips: 12
Transfers: (3) 2023 OL Javion Cohen (Alabama - Rivals/247/On3), 2024 RB Damien Martinez (Rivals/On3) and 2024 QB Cameron Ward (Washington State - Rivals/247/On3)
2024: (6) DB Zaquan Patterson (Rivals/247), DT Justin Scott (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), DE Armondo Blount (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), WR Joshisa Trader (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), WR Ny Carr (Rivals/ESPN) and Edge Marquise Lightfoot (Rivals/On3/247)
2023: (3) OL Francis Mauigoa (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), OL Samson Okunlola (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN) and DT Rueben Bain (Rivals/247/ESPN)
2022: None
2021: None
2020: None
Transferred Out/No Longer in the Program: (2) 2020 DB Avante Williams (Rivals/ESPN) and 2021 QB Jake Garcia (Rivals/ESPN)
Transfer Rate: 15.4%
In the NFL: (2) 2021 DB James Williams (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN) and 2021 DT Leonard Taylor (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN)
8. Clemson
Total number of super blue chips: 11
Transfers: None
2024: (3) LB Sammy Brown (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), WR TJ Moore (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN) and WR Bryant Wesco (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN)
2023: (3) DT Peter Woods (Rivals/247/ESPN), DE Tomarrion Parker (Rivals/247) and DL Vic Burley (247/ESPN)
2022: (2) QB Cade Klubnik (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN) and DB Jeadyn Lukus (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN)
2021: (2) LB Barrett Carter (Rivals/247/On3) and OL Tristan Leigh (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN)
2020: (1) DT Demonte Capehart (Rivals/247/ESPN)
Transferred Out/No Longer in the Program: (4) 2022 CB Toriano Pride (247/On3), 2021 WR Beaux Collins (Rivals/ESPN), 2020 RB Demarkus Bowman (Rivals/247/ESPN) and 2020 QB D.J. Uiagalelei (Rivals/247/ESPN)
Transfer Rate: 20.0%
In the NFL: (5) 2021 RB Will Shipley (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), 2021 LB Jeremiah Trotter (247/On3/ESPN), 2020 DT Bryan Breese (Rivals/247/ESPN), 2020 DE Myles Murphy (Rivals/247/ESPN) and 2020 LB Trenton Simpson (Rivals/247)'
9. Oklahoma:
Total number of super blue chips: 10
Transfers: (1) 2023 DE Dasan McCulloch (Indiana - Rivals/247/On3)
2024: (2) DT David Stone (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN) and RB Taylor Tatum (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN)
2023: (5) QB Jackson Arnold (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), DB Peyton Bowen (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), DE Adepoju Adebawore (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), LB Samuel Omosigho (247/On3), WR Jaquaize Pettaway (247/ESPN)
2022: (1) CB Gentry Williams (On3/ESPN)
2021: (1) DB Billy Bowman (Rivals/247)
2020: None
Transferred Out/No Longer in the Program: (5) 2023 OL Cayden Green (Rivals/ESPN), 2021 LB Clayton Smith (Rivals/247/On3), 2021 QB Caleb Williams (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), 2021 WR Mario Williams (Rivals/On3/ESPN), and 2020 OL Nate Anderson (247/ESPN)
Transfer Rate: 31.3%
In the NFL: 2020 OT Andrew Raym (247/ESPN)
10. LSU
Total number of super blue chips: 9
Transfers: (1) 2023 WR Aaron Anderson (Alabama - Rivals/247/On3)
2024: (2) DT Dominick McKinley (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN) and TE Trey'Dez Green (Rivals/247/On3)
2023: (2) DB Javien Toviano (Rivals/247/ESPN) and Edge Dashawn Womack (247/On3/ESPN)
2022: (2) LB Harold Perkins (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN) and OL Will Campbell (Rivals/247/ESPN)
2021: (2) DT Maaron Smith (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN) and DB Sage Ryan (Rivals/247/ESPN),
2020: None
Transferred Out/No Longer in the Program: (6) 2023 OL Zalance Heard (Rivals/247/On3/ESPN), 2022 DE Quency Wiggins (Rivals/247), 2022 QB Walker Howard (Rivals/ESPN), 2020 TE Arik Gilbert (Rivals/247/ESPN) and 2020 DB Eli Ricks (Rivals/247/ESPN)
Transfer Rate: 31.6%
In the NFL: (3) 2020 WR Kayshon Boutte (Rivals/247/ESPN), 2021 DL Jaquelin Roy (247/ESPN), 2020 Edge BJ Ojulari (247)
No. 2 - The Recruiting Lowdown (Scattershooting edition) ...
... A week ago, we had a UT source tell us that the Longhorns were in better shape with Madden Faraimo coming out of the weekend than they were with Riley Pettijohn. I kind of shoulder shrugged it, but then the next day in Jacksonville, Pettijohn was strongly hinting that Texas was behind both Ohio State and USC, even if he admitted that Texas was very close behind the Buckeyes and Trojans. This weekend, Adam Gorney released an article predicting Pettijohn to end up with USC. Personally, I haven't seen enough to change my Futurecast from Texas to another school, but I'll admit to not being emphatically certain about anything with him.
... If the Longhorns end up with Faraimo instead of Pettijohn, it will be an equal swap in terms of raw talent, but they are completely different players/skill sets.
... Still hearing Texas/Oregon are the top 2 schools for Alamo Heights athlete Michael Terry, but given the run that Oregon has been making in the last week, it would be naive to completely discount them.
... The buzz around Kade Phillips was a little different later in the week than it was last Sunday when it seemed like Texas had ground to make up. Looks like things are trending toward Texas.
... It's looking like Alabama has the momentum with El Dorado Hill (Ca.) Oak Ridge tight end Kaleb Edwards.
No. 3 - Hot Take Of The Weekend ...
Welcome to Austin, Pawl.
No. 4 – Judging the 2022 offensive line class ...
The truth about the 2022 recruiting class is that all of the historical data screamed that the Longhorns were most likely to hit big on two of the six players they signed.
When you look at the historical numbers among super blue chip offensive linemen, the numbers say that they hit at around 50-50 rates, which means if you're the Longhorns you would expect that one of Kelvin Banks or D.J. Campbell would become high-level players/NFL Draft prospects, but probably not both.
Meanwhile, the likes of Neto Umeozulu, Cole Hutson, Cam Williams, Malik Agbo, and Conner Robertson hit at about 20-25% rates at the national level, which means that you could realistically expect that one of that group of four would emerge as a high-level player/NFL Draft prospect.
Par for this group would be a two. A birdie is three. An eagle is four.
As things stand, it really feels like the Longhorns are going to go two for two with their super blues and Williams looks like a starter that will finish his career as a hit. That would make the class a birdie if nothing else happens.
The question that remains is whether any of Umeozulu, Hutson, Agbo, or Robertson can take the steps needed to get into that same stratosphere? I'm starting to have doubts about Umeozulu. How long do we wait to decide whether a dog is ever going to bite if he never actually bites? Meanwhile, does Hutson have an upside beyond pretty solid? Is Ago a better blocking tight end than blocking guard? Can Robertson be better than Daniel Cruz in 12 months?
🤷♂️
Texas is already winning in this discussion. The math says that hitting anything more than two would represent cooking with grease and the Longhorns are cooking with Crisco with their projected three hits.
Will there be a fourth?
No. 5 – The truth about Schloss ...
I can't tell if what I'm about to say is unfair to either Connie Clark or David Pierce, but I'm going to say it anyway because it feels true.
The move from David Pierce to Jim Schlossnagle feels exactly the same as the day Texas went from Connie Clark to Mike White. It's the difference between having someone who is really good and having someone who is elite of elite.
Yours truly was always a fan of Clark. An ex-girlfriend of mine tried out for one of her earliest teams and she was more than decent to her, even if she didn't make the team. Meanwhile, she was always super nice to me in any interaction I ever had with her. Plus, she was a good coach who experienced some measure of success while at Texas.
That's how I feel about Pierce. Three CWS trips would lead to a field being named for him at some schools. He's damn good.
This job requires being great. It just does. Schlossnagle is elite of the elite. He's taken multiple programs to multiple CWS appearances and he's been at the doorstep of a national title within the last week. He feels like a guarantee on the box in a way the damn good Pierce wasn't.
Meanwhile, the Longhorns have weakened one of their main rivals to such a degree that they've turned the A&M program into one that loses guarantees on the box and replaces them with assistants who coached under guarantees on the box. It's like replacing Harrison Ford in his prime with the guy who was his stunt double in his prime. It's kind of like having the real thing, right?
One more thought ...
You'll forgive me if I just don't care about anything Schlossnagle said at the end of his Aggie tenure in a press conference. I don't have high expectations for coaches to stick the landings in moments like that, so I don't find myself fretting about failures when they occur. It's just a tiny chapter in the larger story.
No. 6 - Updating the QB numbers ...
We're almost done with updating the historical recruiting numbers by positions this summer. I'm focusing on quarterbacks this week and will follow up with running backs and linebackers.
Here's a quick snapshot of quarterback prospects from the state of Texas from 2002-2020.
A few follow-up notes to know about the data.
* Every single Rivals 5-star quarterback that Texas has produced since 2002 has either been drafted or played in the NFL. That's a 100% hit rate as it relates to making it to the NFL. That doesn't include Reggie McNeal from the 2002 class because he was listed as an athlete, but if it did, the draft rate would climb to 85.7%.
* Of the top 12 highest-rated quarterbacks by Rivals in the modern era of recruiting (including McNeal), 66.7% were drafted by NFL teams and 75.0% played in the NFL.
* 25% of the top two tiers were drafted in the first round, 33.3% were drafted in the first three rounds and 41.7% were drafted in the top 4 rounds.
The five-stars.
2002 - Vince Young (Texas)
2004 - Rhett Bomar (Oklahoma)
2006 - Matt Stafford (Georgia)
2007 - Ryan Mallett (Arkansas)
2009 - Garrett Gilbert (Texas)
2009 - Russell Shepard (LSU)
Active Players: 2021 Quinn Ewers (Ohio State/Texas), 2022 Cade Klubnick (Clemson), 2023 Jackson Arnold (Oklahoma) and 2024 DJ Lagway (Florida)
The high four stars:
2004 - Stephen McGee (Texas A&M)
2004 - Robbie Reid (Oklahoma State)
2006 - Jevan Snead (Texas)
2008 - Andrew Luck (Stanford)
2009 - Tyrik Rollison (Auburn)
Active Players: 2022 Connor Weigman (Texas A&M)
The Mid Four Stars
2004 - Graham Harrell (Texas Tech)
2010 - Connor Wood (Texas)
2011 - J.W. Walsh (Oklahoma State)
2013 - J.T. Barrett (Ohio State)
2013 - Cody Thomas (Oklahoma)
2013 - Kenny Hill (Texas A&M)
2014 - Jerrod Heard (Texas)
2015 - Jarrett Stidham (Baylor)
2015 - Kyler Murray (Texas A&M)
2016 - Shane Buechele (Texas)
2017 - Sam Ehlinger (Texas)
2017 - Chris Robison (Oklahoma)
Active Players: 2020 Hudson Card (Texas/Purdue), 2021 Preston Stone (SMU), 2021 Garrett Nussmeier (LSU), 2021 Jalen Milroe (Alabama), 2023 Austin Novosad (Oregon) add 2024 Michael Hawkins (Oklahoma)
All bolded players were NFL Draft picks.
No. 7 - Position by Position ...
Here's how each updated historical analysis looks when sorted by positions.
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Buy) I'm kind of surprised it hasn't already happened.
(Buy) That's probably fair. Is it realistic to expect more?
(Sell) I can't say that I know for sure that women's soccer and women's golf will win SEC titles with the current coaches.
(Sell) Six.
(Buy) Of course. They'll sign three. It's which three - that is the question.
(Sell) I mean...
(Buy) Hayden Conner and Jake Majors are in their final seasons and don't have COVID years to use. Everyone expects Kelvin Banks to turn pro. D.J. Campbell and Cam Williams are both players that could go pro.
(Sell) I don't know that I'm buying stock in Umeozulu until he proves a little more. The line might require more than he's proving capable of giving.
(Buy) I mean...
(Buy) I'm not sure it's enough to improve their lot in life, but they will recruit better in Texas as a byproduct of Texas joining the SEC.
(Sell) That's going to be a dogfight of a game.
(Sell) Really, really good question. With Arch Manning waiting in the wings, I'll take football.
(Buy) I'm not sure how to answer this question. Sark had to know what he was getting into when he hired an unproven recruiter and asked him to jump into the most heavily competitive marketplace in college football without any relationships among target players to speak of while the rest of the schools he would compete against have a 12-24 month head-start in relationship-building. He hired Kenny Baker because he values his reputation for development more than any other value it was competing against. None of this can be a surprise. Does he need to reevaluate? Now? In Late June? I guess it's never too late to get things right, but some adjustments are probably going to be needed. Of course, that might mean going out to get next year's Walter Nolan when he becomes available... consequences be damned. Easy for me to say, I suppose.
(Sell) It can get higher than the 11 out of 10 levels of hate from 2012, can it?
(Buy) OU isn't winning an SEC title in football for a while. Probably a long while.
(Buy) That feels like a safe assumption.
(Sell) I don't know that I believe Rodney Terry is going to get 6 seasons.
(Buy/Buy/Buy) I don't think you can win a big three conference title in the SEC without an elite head coach. The only sure-fire elite coach in a big three sport right now is Schlossnagel.
B/s - You would take 3 football championships in the next 15 years of Sark if it meant OU and Aggy each got 1 football title.
(Buy/Sell/Buy/Buy) I'm not as sure as you are that the Mississippi State atmosphere will be as memorable as you think it might be, even if it were proven to be excellent.
No. 9 – Scattershooting all over the place …
... We've reached a point where I am hoping/begging the Sixers to sign Paul George in an effort to salvage the Joel Embiid era. *Sigh*
... Does anyone want Chris Paul?
... I just can't with this sport.
... No Sha'Carri Richardson in the 200 at the Olympics. Making the women's spring team is a battle.
... It will forever break my heart that this young man isn't playing for Liverpool. I really thought we were going to get him last year. I'm a big dummy.
... England might keep playing like crap and it still might moonwalk into the Euro final.
... My goodness, Spain is l-o-a-d-e-d.
... The USMNT is in quite a pickle going into Monday night's game with Uruguay. We're not that good with players or coaching. There's a better chance that we lose 4-0 than there is of a victory.
... I watched pieces of two different WNBA games today and had no action on either. 🤷♂️
... You have to see this ... unreal.
... Inside Out 2 has made a billion worldwide. Horizon made 11 million in its opening weekend. Wow and yikes.
... Rest in peace, Kinky.
... Came across this performance over the weekend for the first time. It's one of my favorite songs of all-time.
No. 10 - Top 10: Kevin Costner ...
The truth of the matter is that I did a Costner list three years ago, but a couple of things are occurring this weekend..
a. His new western epic "Horizon: An American Saga" is out in theaters. I haven't seen it yet, but Costner has poured a ton of his own money into this project and generally knows how to make a good Western. I'll give it a shot.
b. I've seen a number of Costner films over the last 12 months, including A Perfect World and Open Range in the last 48 hours.
c. After taking a look at my last Top 10 list, I decided that a few changes needed to be made from the original list.
Ok, let's get on with it...
Honorable Mention: Revenge (1990), Message in a Bottle (1997), Thirteen Days (2000), Molly's Game (2017), The Postman (1997), Draft Day (2014) and Hidden Figures (2016)
Last 5 Out: Silverado (1985), The Bodyguard (1992), Waterworld (1995), The Untouchables (1987) and For The Love of the Game (1999)
10. Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves (1991)
Per Forbes: "Save for Tim Burton’s Batman ($411 million in 1989), Kevin Costner’s Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves was the biggest grossing IP-specific superhero movie until Spider-Man in 2002."
9. Open Range (2003)
I don't find this movie to be within a 100-foot pole of Wyatt Earp, but it's a damn solid watch and rightfully belongs somewhere in the top 10.
8. Dances With Wolves (1990)
It beat out Goodfellas for Best Picture and Best Director, yet it barely cracks the top 10. Hell, some people wouldn't even include it in the top 10, but I tend to like long Costner movies more than most.
7. A Perfect World (1993)
It's a very good movie. I literally watched it Saturday night. I've just never quite rated it as high as others.
6. No Way Out (1987)
It didn't make the list three years ago, but after a recent Gene Hackman binge, I've come around on the idea that it must be in the Top 10.
5. Tin Cup (1998)
Is it the second-best golf movie of all-time behind Caddyshack? I'm pretty sure it is.
4. Wyatt Earp (1994)
I have stood on the table for this movie for decades. Yes, it's long, but it's a brilliant historical bio that has a number of brilliant performances inside of it. Wyatt Earp > Tombstone.
3. JFK (1991)
It might be bat-shit crazy at times, but it's a wildly fun bat-shit crazy that gets better with every year that passes.
2. Field of Dreams (1989)
It was described this week on The Big Picture as this generation's "It'sa Wonderful Life" and that feels pretty perfect.
1. Bull Durham (1988)
The best best baseball movie of all-time and the height of Costner's superpowers as a charismatic ball-playing superstar.
Any list without Fandango is missing something essential
I liked it more for the supporting cast than Costner. Morgan Freeman was great, as was Snape. Even Christian Slater was good.
I am curious what the effect of Nike's stock tanking is. Oregon does not seem like it would be diversified. Is promised NIL money held in escrow?
I saw that at Richland Mall in Waco at the theater inside the mall, not the later addition parking 2 screen deal they built later. I think it and Schulman’s off Valley Mills were the only movie theaters at the time.
A lot of really good info and sadly what’s stuck in my head after reading all that is “Bitch, you without me is like Harold Melvin without the Blue Notes. You’ll never go platinum!”
247's version of analyzing recruiting classes will appeal to fans of a lot of schools who are getting classes filled with a lot of "light" blues but few "super" blues. They will think their teams are close in talent and should be competitive even against elite teams.
I would expect that when their teams are not that successful against the highest competition those fans will start complaining about development and play calling instead of recognizing that there is still a sizable talent gap.
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Recruiting Pipelines Then & Now (Mack, Strong, Herman, Sark)- Latest: CodyCarpentier
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