Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Good grief... Clarifying the Quinn Talk...)
- Thread starter Ketchum
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Just got back to reading about the baseball section. Nice shout-out to Pierce. My boss played for Pierce when he pitched at Rice, he has nothing but glowing things to say about him as a person. I think there is no denying he did a hell of a job this year and for his stint at UT. It's difficult to stay at the top for so long, and UT has found a way to do that.
I am sooooooo ready for the off-season to end.
We've reached the point where there's just not much more we can say about the Texas Longhorn football team in advance of the 2023 season.
Every player, every position, every side of the ball and every question mark surrounding all of them has been talked to the ground at this point, possibly into the ground.
Take starting quarterback Quinn Ewers is a player that has been written about in the last five days on Orangebloods by @Travis Galey, @Alex Dunlap and @Anwar Richardson in separate columns.
Just when you think we've ripped every piece of meat off the bone, there are reactions to be had over the opinions of national college football writers, thoughts from NFL Draft evaluators and an off-season performance update.
Through all of it, I've felt like I've been pretty consistent in my thoughts of Ewers. He's an immensely talented player capable of ending up in a future high NFL Draft, but he's a player that is still in the infancy of his development. From the get-go going into last season, my expectation was that we'd see both moments of exhilaration and reasons for pause.
My anticipation of Ewers as a player is that there is a world of upside inside of him and that he will likely realize it before too long, but I don't know that I or anyone else can pinpoint exactly when that happens.
It might be the Alabama game in a few months. It might be over the course of the 2023 season. It might take longer than that.
From my perspective, I'm neither too high or too low in the discussion of him as a player. I'm inside the sweet spot of believing in his talent, but acknowledging there's a way to go before we can discuss him as an elite player that has proven his recruiting rankings to be as pure as snow.
Is this not reasonable?
Apparently not.
On two separate occasions this week, I was called out by friends on the subject of Ewers.
One person that you guys know very well wrote, "And you don’t believe he could be good in the future."
Literally an hour later, another person that is a well-known poster on the site texted me, "You are coming across as super negative on (Quinn)."
When I asked him what I had written that was negative, this was his response
My response was as honest and direct as it could possibly be.
The temps outside haven't even reached 100 degrees yet this summer and brains are apparently melting.
Yet, here's the thing. If, for some reason, my full and nuanced set of thoughts on the starting quarterback of the team I've covered for three decades aren't clear ... that's on me. I can't sit around and wonder why everyone is misunderstanding my positions. Clearly, I have failed in some regard when two comments that I believe are wildly off-center are sent to me by two different people within 167 minutes on the same day.
Therefore, for the sake of clarity ... I am going to reset my thoughts on Ewers going into the 2023 season once more with the hopes that nothing gets lost in translation.
a. I strongly believe that Ewers is immensely talented. I think we're talking about a young man that has arm talent in the Matt Stafford neighborhood. If and when the pieces come together, we're possibly talking about a high-level NFL starter. Simple as that.
b. I don't have anything against Ewers on a personal level. I'm rooting for him to live his dream like I root for all of these young men to realize them. I have at times questioned parts of his game (going back to high school), but no one should ever confuse asking questions or discussing areas of his game that need to improve with some sort of personal bias against him. Frankly, I would hope this goes without saying, but apparently it doesn't.
c. I fully expect Ewers to be an improved player in 2023 from 2022.
d. While I expect Ewers to be an improved player, I can't say that I know what exactly that translates to. Maybe it means he improves his season efficiency rating by 30 points or maybe it's something less than that? Maybe it means that he leads the Longhorns to a Big 12 title or maybe something a little less than that. Maybe he'll be ready for the NFL Draft or maybe not quite. It doesn't qualify as a hot take to admit that I don't know what to expect, but it's honest. If nothing else, you can always expect that from me.
e. My biggest concern with Ewers coming out of high school is an opinion that generated laughs at yours truly by many people in this industry. I worried about his performance level when faced with pressure.
In @Alex Dunlap's article this week about Ewers, which centered on the opinions of a couple of NFL Draft experts, this was included in their analysis:
"Ewers adjusted completion percentage (does not count throwaways, drops, etc.) should be at 73.5% as a solid baseline for good prospect play coming into the NFL. Ewers is at 67.5% so far at Texas.
"When pressured, that number goes down to 51%. His mechanics are not great when he's clean, but when he's off-platform, they are worse. It goes into him also having a higher ‘turnover-worthy play’-rate (a PFF stat, so buyer beware)."
This is my No. 1 concern with Ewers and it's the area that needs the most improvement going into this season. However, all of the added muscle mass and dedication to homework in the world isn't going to let us know if he's truly improved going into this season in the face of pressure. Truthfully, this is my hang-up on just how high his performance levels increase.
f. The other concern I've had since he was a prospect is his ability to throw the deep ball, an area of concern that came to a head last year when his best receiver's body language screamed resentment every time Ewers was unable to throw the ball inside of a decent catch radius.
Back when he was a prospect, the people who thought I was crazy (including some family members) seemed to believe that this critique was somehow an indictment of his arm, which led to people sending me links to videos of him throwing the ball over mountains at various camps.
It's not about how far he can throw the ball. It's about throwing the ball with a feel for receivers running down the field and the math involved in using arm strength to successfully connect with a human being running 22+ MPH in stride.
I've said over and over and over again this off-season that Troy Aikman somewhat struggled with this as a young player in the NFL, especially when he was trying to solve the Ace Wright deep-threat puzzle. Obviously, Aikman figured it out. I believe Ewers will as well. I just don't know that I can tell you when that will happen because it's different with every player. Of all of Vince Young's struggles as a young player, throwing the deep ball well wasn't one of them. Yet, he often couldn't hit a running back in stride in the flat at a 30-percent rate. Every player's development in throwing to various places on the field at a high level and at maximum speed comes at a different pace. It's possible that this piece of the puzzle comes into focus this season, but it's not a slam dunk assumption that we can make with 100-percent confidence.
That's it. That's my Ewers take.
Perhaps it's not cut and dry. Perhaps it lacks the hyperbole that some might desire.
What it isn't is some sort of unfair stance that is so unforgiving that it translates to me not believing he can improve or that it fails to acknowledge any positive trait. Geez, I compared his arm to Matt Stafford, who generally is hailed as having one of the best arms in NFL history. I believe he can be a top 10-level NFL quarterback, which translates to being ... uh ... Matt Stafford.
Allegations of a lack of positive commentary are just flat out nonsense and you need to know that if you send me text before the start of the season with that kind of suggestion, I'm going to tell you the same thing I told one of you this week.
"Bill, that's f***ing stupid."
No. 2 - If you want nothing but 1,000% positivity ...
Just ask me about this guy.
No. 3 - Something to think about ...
Earlier this week, someone from a competing network posted a list of the best offensive lines in college football and the Texas unit was ranked No. 3.
I mean ...
*sigh*
Where do I even begin?
Let's just start with this ... I think the 2022 Texas Longhorns had the following:
a. A freaking tremendous left tackle
b. A very good right tackle
c. A very decent, but not above average interior line.
Does anyone really disagree with any of that?
The truth of the matter is that we've overcooked the grits with the offensive line a little all off-season. For instance, the pair of Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson averaged 6.1 and 6.0 yards per carry last year. Yet take a look at this mind-blowing graphic.
Of every single Power 5 running back from the last nine seasons, both Robinson and Johnson are ranked in the top four in yards after contact/carry and missed tackle per touch.
That's an almost impossible set of data points to believe and there are obvious implications when trying to decide who was most responsible last season for the running game success.
In case you need reminding, the Longhorns rushed for 51 yards on 17 carries (2.8 yards per carry) in their last game against a decent Pac-12 defense in its last game of the season without Robinson and Johnson.
From a pass-blocking standpoint, this group was very good in 2022, ranking 30th nationally in sacks allowed, which is a stat that tells us something, but doesn't tell us everything.
The bottom line is that it was a very good pass-protecting unit and a solid (I think) run-blocking group. Yet, too many times last season was defined by the middle of the line making a mistake or being caved in.
I'm not telling you that this group isn't going to be the third-best offensive line in the nation. Instead, what I'm telling you is that the 2023 offensive line will largely be more defined how good the likes of Hayden Conner, Jake Majors, Cole Hutson, DJ Campbell and Cam Williams are than by how good the likes of Kelvin Banks and Christian Jones are.
No. 4 - Just call her the GOAT ...
We've reached the point where if you're having a conversation about the best women's athletes in the history of Texas athletics and you don't have Julien Alfred's name early in the conversation, you're not having a real conversation.
Quite frankly, she's the single fastest and greatest female track athlete that the 40 Acres has ever known.
That is not a subjective take. Hell, it wasn't a subjective take BEFORE she defended her national title in the 100 meters this weekend (only the sixth woman in history to do so and the first in a decade), but she took home the championship in the 200 meters as well, while leading the Longhorns to its first outdoor national team title since 2006.
Oh, and she won the national championship in the 4X100 relay. That woman won so much gold this weekend that it's hard to keep track of all the Ws. That she did all of it on her birthday makes the whole thing a bit of a Disney movie.
The woman is now in the Mount Rushmore conversation.
No. 5 - Chris Del Conte's best hire?
He doesn't get as much attention for his success as many of the other coaches on the 40 Acres, but it's time to put some extra damn respect on Edrick Bertholan Floréal's name.
The man has not only transformed the program into a national title-winning side, but he's transformed the women's track program into the place to be.
No team came within 32 points of the Longhorns this weekend. Quite simply, the difference between first and second this weekend was larger than the difference between second and 10th.
It feels like Floréal deserved his own section this week, just like Alfred.
With all due respect to Mike White and Vic Shafer, Floréal is probably the best hire that Chris Del Conte has made at Texas.
No. 6 - Shout out to David Pierce ...
There's always a lot of conversation about Texas baseball coach David Pierce's abilities and qualities as a coach.
Inside of that conversation, it needs to be said that he's done a hell of a man-management job in the last month.
Consider the coaching chops it took to keep this team mentally dialed into the season in such a way that it pulled off a three-game sweep of West Virginia in the final weekend of the regular season that clinched a share of the Big 12 title.
Then consider the coaching chops it took to pick his team up off the floor after a disaster in Arlington and getting it ready to win a regional on the road in Miami in the minimum number of games required.
Finally, consider the guts that this team had in overcoming a 5-2 deficit in the 9th inning on Saturday at Stanford and putting up a five-spot in the 9th to win game one 7-5.
Say what you want about this team, but it has guts. It believes in itself. It doesn't ever quit. It has played well when its back has been pushed against a wall.
That doesn't just happen by accident. It feels like Pierce's greatest skill might be in his man-management, which is a hell of a good thing to have as your greatest skill if you're a coach.
No. 7 - Texas Baseball Scattershots...
* No need to sweat what happened in game two if you're the Longhorns. A dominant pitcher doing his A+ best is always going to be tough to handle. Just dust off your britches and get ready for game three.
* You have to favor Stanford in the deciding game based on the idea that I'm not sure how the pitching for the Longhorns is going to hold up.
* Over/under on runs needed for Monday? I'm going to go with 6.5. It's going to take 7 IMO.
* Could really use a big night from Dylan Campbell tonight after being held in check through the first two games.
* I'm kind of surprised to say the least that the Longhorns are in this thing without great starting pitching in the first two games.
* If the Longhorns can win on Monday night, Saturday's come from behind win will be remembered for a long time. If they don't, it probably gets forgotten quickly. That's just how it goes.
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Buy) He's the best player in the NBA. That doesn't mean that didn’t mostly coast the last two months of the season, while not playing much defense, which along with Embiid's historically good season, translated to Jokic not winning the MVP.
(Sell) Nothing is abnormal about what has transpired. It's too early to know.
(Sell) You're essentially asking if I would prefer TCU's 2022 season or Kansas State's, and I'd probably say that making the playoff surpasses a conference title. In fact, a 12-1 season would mean that the Longhorns went 12-0 in the regular season, which includes wins over Alabama and Oklahoma. You're also still in the mix for a national title because you didn't include in your record how the playoff results would turn out.
(Sell) -6.5
(Sell) It's a great question because it could turn out to be extremely close, but I'm going to say no.
(Buy) Maybe they thought they'd be wasting their time, but this is a kid that you shank someone over if you need to. We're talking about a kid with borderline Chris Johnson speed and the pedigree of a high school back of someone like Emmitt Smith/Cedric Benson. There's not a back that Texas will recruit that is better than him. I think he's a better running back prospect than CJ Baxter.
(Sell) If it meant getting Jaylan Ford out of the No. 41 (?) jersey, I'm doing it. Personally, I'd like to see Ford in a single digit number that is worthy of his bad-ass-ness.
(Buy) No lies were told in the following question.
(Buy) I'd sell four years, though.
(Sell) I'd buy Top 20-25, though.
(Buy) This feels like statistically smart selection based on how things went last season and by how the Tide seem very intent in having someone else as the starter based on its transfer work.
(Sell) He's rooted into the position and he's turned into a Flood guy. He's the guy Flood most trusts to get everyone where they need to be.
(Sell) If it's 50-50 (for both, which I don't believe is quite the case), there's a 25% chance of landing both.
(Sell) I think he plays four.
No. 9 - Scattershooting on anything and everything ...
... TCU went from Big 12 afterthought to College World Series participant. Wild stuff.
... This young dude is mashing. 462 feet. Longest blast ever hit to this side of the park.
... It kind of feels like the Dallas Stars/Las Vegas Knights series was the real Stanley Cup Finals.
... Who saw Aaron Gordon's game four performance coming from a mile away?
... Wherever Dalvin Cook ends up, I doubt it will be Dallas. That dude wants to be paid and I don't blame him, but not in Big D.
... GET IN!!!
,,, Folks, leave Brittany Griner alone.
... He's not my favorite by any stretch, but you have to give it up to Novak Djokavic. The man has outlasted his rivals and has been able to stay healthy to the point that he's last man standing with a record 23 grand slams. Tip of the cap.
... Shout out to Amanda Nunes, who is the fighter we all thought Ronda Rousey was going to be. What a career.
... For my money, this group might be the best studio team in pro sports.
... If Man City had to win the Champions League, I kind of wish Kevin de Bruyne had been able to give a Man of the Match performance. He's a player that deserves such a moment.
... Rodri is incredible. Full stop.
... Oh, Romelu Lukaku, I just don't even know what to say.
... Here's my thing about Manchester City fans:
I'd kind of understand if they said, "I don't care about the cheating. F it. If you're not cheating, you're not trying."
I'd kind of understand if they said, "I can't control who owns my club. What am I supposed to do, just stop liking the team my heart and soul loves?"
I cannot understand them saying, "There's nothing to see here with the cheating allegations. It's all made up and/or no one can prove it. Everyone is against us."
I find myself wanting to kind of punch those people. Now, I don't think I've punched anyone since I was playing park basketball in my early 20s, so it's not that I would punch City fans that say that mess, it's just that I kind of really want to. This is my diary and will make confessions without concerns for your judgement. This is meant to be a safe space.
No. 10 - The List: Linda Ronstadt ...
Last week, I did Miley Cyrus and I know that the music was outside the parameters of your normal taste.
Therefore, I thought this week I would focus on someone a little more in your sweet spot.
Enjoy.
Songs that received serious consideration: What's New, That'll Be The Day, It Doesn't Matter Any More, Hasten, Down The Wind, Different Drum, I Can't Help It (If I'm Still In Love With You), How Do I Make You and When Will I Be Loved.
10. Dark End of the Street
This 1967 banger has a little bit of soul, a little bit of gospel and a whole lot of Ronstadt giving us her soul in the form of a heartbreaking belter.
9. Ooh Baby Baby
It's just Ronstadt doing Smokey Robinson almost as well as the original. She doesn't always do a ton of Motown but when she did ... she slays it.
8. Don't Know Much
I didn't love this song when it first came out in 1989, but all these years later, it's impossible to acknowledge that it’s a masterpiece. If it's not ranked high enough, it's because it's not exactly an easy song to bop to when compared to so many of her other songs. It's just a personal choice.
7. Heat Wave
Something about the way Ronstadt delivers her "Yeah, yeahs" at the end of this Martha and the Vandellas classic makes me feel a certain kind of way. It's gritty and grimy. Me likey.
6. Hurts So Bad
Speaking of bangers, when Danny Kortchmar's lead guitar solo kicks in during the bridge, this song goes to another level.
5. Tracks of My Tears
The Smokey Robinson version might ... might ... rank as one of my top 5 all-time songs (I'd really need to think about it) and Ronstadt does a terrific job of it in her personal version of it.
4. Somewhere Out There
This is a very sentimental pick. First of all, I freaking love James Ingram. That's my dude. Throw in the fact that I was 10 when An American Tale came out in the theaters and you're hitting me in all the sweet spots.
3. Blue Bayou
Don't get me wrong, it's a great song. It might be the song I see Youtube reactors watch the most. It's not her best song in my humble opinion, even if it's close.
2. Long Long Time
It's perfect. Every time I hear it, it feels like the first time.
1. You're No Good
Of all of the songs in her songbook, this is the song I grew up with on the radio and in my home.
Those players excelled at responding to adversity time and time again. Gotta give Pierce credit.
Obviously, I was being facetious. (...and I strongly suggest you remove the giant stick shoved up your ass, FFS. 🙄)
Not playing the victim at all. Irony is Britney did until our country rescued her.
Just because I have a viewpoint that suggested that if we are to leave Britney alone let’s show the same respect for those with opposing views which I don’t see happening much these days doesn’t mean I am a victim in the least.
For reference go check out what is being said about Senator Tim Scott from those that oppose his view. No other way to describe the comments other than at best prejudice but more realistically racist. Very sad.
We can agree to disagree. If I offended you my apologies. If grievous to you there’s always the ignore feature.
jbg
