Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (Herman theory + Ketch theory = better pay attention)
- Thread starter Ketchum
- Start date
we're quibbling over me calling one of the top six sack guys (at the time of his departure) and a multi-year starter at Wrecking Crew U when it was still Wrecking Crew U "very good"?
That's the battle you've chosen to take on this morning?
The dude had 32.5 sacks in his career.
I'd call that pretty ****ing very good.
From Wikiedia (not sure it's been updated)
1 Aaron Wallace 42.0 1986 1987 1988 1989
2 Jacob Green 37.0 1977 1978 1979
3 John Roper 36.0 1985 1986 1987 1988
4 Keith Mitchell 34.0 1933 1994 1995 1996
5 Von Miller 33.0 2007 2008 2009 2010
6 Roylin Bradley 32.5 2014 2015 2016
7 Marcus Buckley 29.0 1990 1991 1992
8 Damontre Moore 26.5 2010 2011 2012
9 Ray Childress 25.0 1981 1982 1983 1984
10 Myles Garrett 24.0
There's not a guy on that list that wasn't at least very good.
Well, it may just be you used bad data. From the 12th Man website, Bradley finished with 24 career sacks.
Goddamn wikipedia.
Still, 24 career sacks makes a guy pretty damn "very good", no? It doesn't change my point and it doesn't change that we're quibbling over some pretty small area of hair-splitting.
" The linebacker was a key part of A&M’s 1998 Big 12 championship team. Alongside Dat Nguyen, Bradley was the team’s primary pass rusher from the outside. Bradley had two huge sacks in the team’s upset victory over Kansas State in the Big 12 title game. He led the team in sacks during the 1999 and 2000 season."
That's very good.
That's very good.
This happened last week in Abilene. Take a minute to watch, you may get a little teary eyed...
http://www.bigcountryhomepage.com/news/main-news/half-the-heart-twice-the-love/649145075
Love the Patriots . Texans first, Patriots second, Cowboys 33d.
Loved every minute of the 2d half, but if you want to talk about something that really makes me vomit.......Jerry Jones in the HOF. Are you f......g kidding me?
That might be a heck of a player! A better one would be Case Swoops. That guy would have killed it.
Jones didn't get in because of his genius as a GM. But he revolutionized NFL marketing and has become the most influential owner in a group of pretty smart, very influential guys. And he was at least smart enough to hire Jimmy Johnson (even if he wasn't smart enough to keep him) so he's got 3 SB rings which is more than than just about any current owner not named Kraft.
How many times can you cite of a coach taking more than 3 years before his good coaching finally brought success? In reading your article, it seems that Herman has a tall order. He has to succeed with the players he inherited because if he doesn't, its going to take a while to bring in the talent. Right now, we don't have recruiting momentum and it might take a while for him to build up a fundamentally solid and successful team.
"We signed 19 guys in 2012 in February. At Ohio State, they had, I think, six guys that were midyear enrollees that, quite frankly, we didn't have a whole lot to do with. That was more Coach Tressel and Coach Fickell. We signed 19 guys in February, and that was the fifth-ranked class in the country. Now, five years later, I just researched that class, three out of 19 wound up playing significant time for Ohio State University off the fifth-ranked class in the country.
Tom Herman at Wednesday’s Signing Day Press Conference
Houston, we might have a problem.
Might.
Might
In listening to Herman discuss multiple times in the last month what he believes is a trend in college football of new coaches signing unfulfilling debut recruiting classes (rankings, be damned!), I couldn’t help but stew a little over his words because unintentionally they play into a working theory that I have in my head about Herman’s future at Texas.
However, before we dive deep into the rabbit’s hole of another one of my football theories, let’s just focus on Herman’s theory first.
After all, history does show that he has a point. Just look at the class that Charlie Strong whipped together in his first month in Austin, built on a pile of Mack Brown leftovers and a few kids of his own choosing heading into signing day. Or Mack's borderline Top 10 class in 1998 that produced one really tremendous player and a bunch of guys that were place-holders until more talented players took their jobs.
Of the players that remain from that 2014 class, the best of the lot are probably Chris Nelson, Poona Ford, Armanti Foreman, Jerrod Heard, Jason Hall, John Bonney and Jake McMillon. While I might contend that every single one of them is a nice player that has showed some flashes at various times in their careers, none have truly emerged as standout players at this level.
Let me put it like this, none of those players are starting on the best teams from the 2004-09 glory era of the program under Mack, although D’Onta Foreman most certainly would have if he was still on campus.
The problem for Herman is twofold. First of all, that group of pretty good players mostly represents the best of a very small (12 players) senior class that he inherits. Secondly, when you combine the 2014 and 2017 classes together, you’re left talking about 50 percent of the classes from 2014-17 that make up the Herman’s initial roster. If you combine what’s left from 2014 and what was added on Wednesday, the total number of players from those two seasons to pull success from is 29.
Twenty-nine.
That is not ideal and this is where we get to my theory.
In order for the Longhorns to have any tangible success before the turn of the decade, Tom Herman and his staff have to connect in a huge way with the 2015 and 2016 recruiting classes. You can make a case (and that’s kind of what I’m doing) that Herman’s entire career in Austin largely rests on his ability to win with Charlie Strong’s players, which is ironic for a two big reasons.
a. No one blinked when Strong arrived, cleaned out the roster and bet his success on his own players. Ultimately, Strong didn’t get a chance to see his own recruits turn into upperclassmen because he couldn’t win with what Mack Brown left him in the cupboard.
b. Fast-forward to 2017 and no one is saying the things about the talent pool that Herman inherits from Strong that they did about Brown’s “soft” and “entitled” leftovers that were left for Strong. That’s because Strong smashed it out of the park in terms of acquiring raw talent in the last two recruiting classes, although nine of that translated into success on the field.
Just like with Houston following the 2014 season, this is where Herman walks in. It remains to be seen just how good Herman is at building a program for long-term success because he’s only been a head coach for two seasons, but the one thing he proved at Houston that could be critical to his new task is that he can take someone else’s ingredients and cook up one very tasty meal.
Herman didn’t have a magical 2015 season with his guys, he had a magical 2015 season with Tony Levine’s players. Truth be told, Herman’s never had a team full of “Herman guys.” In the here and now, the fact that Herman’s slight track record points to him being able to succeed with players he didn’t recruit above all else is a critically important element for this program.
Why?
Well, if he can’t, he runs the risk of running into the same issues that Strong ran into involving his own recruiting classes. Let’s say for the sake of conversation that Herman can’t turn the pieces of the 2015 and 2016 classes into something special, then the classes that Herman signs in 2018 and 2019 will potentially end up being the first true foundation blocks of a championship program.
As has turned out to be the case with the 2015 and 2016 classes, it will likely take a few years for those classes to achieve consistent high levels of performance, which means we might be talking about 2020 before Herman guys could lead the program to the highest of heights.
For those scoring at home, that’s four seasons from now.
There’s not a person wearing burnt orange today that would sign off on waiting through three mediocre seasons under Herman before the first possible outstanding season takes place.
These truths bring me back to Herman’s theory on first-year recruiting classes. If the 2017 Texas recruiting class ends up being pretty good (but not great), almost of Herman’s chips are in on the nearly four dozen prospects that remain from 2015 and 2016.
It has to be them.
It has to be them now.
It has to be them now or I don’t when it’s going to be.
This is what it looks like when Herman’s theory and my theory get together for a dance party.
No. 2 – The ultimate silver lining in this story ...
When you look at the remains of Strong’s last two classes, you find a deep pool of talent that spans almost every position on the field and seems to begging to have a smart football staff figure out the best way to extrapolate all of the talent inside of it.
Let’s take a quick snapshot at what remains from these two classes.
Quarterbacks: (2) Shane Buechele and Matthew Merrick
Running backs (4): Chris Warren, Kirk Johnson, Tristan Houston and Kyle Porter
Wide receivers (6): John Burt, Devin Duvernay, Collin Johnson, Reggie Hemphill-Mapps, Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Davion Curtis
Tight ends: (1) Peyton Aucoin
Offensive linemen (10): Connor Williams, Patrick Vahe, Ronnie Major, Garrett Thomas, Jean Delance, Tope Imade, Denzel Okafor, Zach Shackelford, Patrick Hudson and J.P. Urquidez
Defensive linemen (8): Charles Omenihu, Malcolm Roach, Andrew Fitzgerald, Marcel Southall, Gerald Wilson, D’Andre Christmas, Chris Daniels and Jordan Elliott
Linebackers (7): Malik Jefferson, Breckyn Hager, Anthony Wheeler, Cameron Townsend, Erick Fowler, Jeffrey McCulloch and DeMarco Boyd
Defensive backs (9): Davante Davis, Holton Hill, Kris Boyd, DeShon Elliott, P..J. Locke, Brandon Jones, Eric Cuffee, Chris Brown and Donovan Duvernay
Add all of that together and you’ve got 47 total players for Herman and his coaching staff to work with. In order for the Longhorns to become a team that can win 10 games and compete for a Big 12 title before the end of this decade, I’d guess that more than a dozen from this group have to emerge as high-end college players/future NFL prospects.
Of those positions, I’d list wide receivers, offensive line, linebackers and defensive backs as the strength of the current roster, and I have zero doubts that at least a couple of future NFL players are inside each of those position groups. On the other hand, I’m not sure what to think about with the running backs, tight ends and defensive linemen that remain.
The wild-card in this entire discussion is probably Buechele (and/or 2017 class member Sam Ehlinger).
While it might take a wide-ranging group of impact players to get Texas to a championship, great quarterback play can speed the process of being very good, very quickly.
Herman, the Quarterback Whisperer, has two guys with which to work and one of those two must not only prove that he can play at a top-25 level nationally at his position, but he has to prove that he can hold up to the rigors of big-time college football. If that can’t happen, we’re back to talking about the 2018 recruiting class as a true starting point in Herman’s program and that just can’t happen.
Overall, there’s not a lot of wiggle-room with which to work for Herman, but the talent in those two critical classes is there. If Herman’s the guy most believe him to be, he’ll not only get those two classes to hit peak talent development, but he’ll have them in a position to be remembered with the likes of the 1999 and 2002 recruiting classes, which are forever credited for forever changing the culture in the program.
If Herman can’t … well … let’s not think about that right now.
No. 3 – Breaking down the 2017 class in immediate terms …
… Members of the 2017 recruiting class that I expect to see the field this year:
QB San Ehlinger (he’ll play an immediate role on this team)
RB Toneil Carter (possible No.2 by the opening game)
WR Damion Miller (too talented to redshirt)
TE Reese Leitao (bodies are needed)
DE Jamari Chisholm (probably a back-up)
LB Gary Johnson (opening game starter)
DB Josh Thompson (possible special teams ace)
K Joshua Rowland (it’s his job to lose)
… Members of the 2017 class that I expect to definitely redshirt this year:
WR Jordan Pouncey
OL Derek Kerstetter
OL Sam Cosmi
DE Max Cummins
DB Kobe Boyece
… Members of the 2017 class that I think could sneak in with some game snaps in 2017, but might redshirt:
RB Daniel Young
TE Cade Brewer
DE Taquan Graham
LB Marquez Bimage
DB Montrell Estelle
No. 4 – Buy or sell …
BUY or SELL: At least three Texas players would start for Alabama in 2017?
(Buy) Connor Williams, Malik Jefferson, Devin Duvernay, Jeff McCulloch, Gary Johnson, Malcolm Roach and … wait for it … Shane Buchele could start for Alabama, in part because Alabama is going to have a ton of turnover on defense this season.
BUY or SELL: Eight wins is a realistic expectation for next season?
(Buy) Yes, a three-game improvement is more than fair, especially given the really tough schedule that the Longhorns will take on.
BUY or SELL: The 2017 Texas offensive line will be the best one we have had in 10 years going back to the early Colt McCoy days?
(Buy) Williams is the best lineman the program has had since Justin Blalock departed the program by a country mile and I think the pieces of the puzzle that will line up with him have a chance to match those very average lines that McCoy played with.
BUY or SELL: Casey Horny still works for UT when the season starts?
(Buy) Removing him now would be an admission of a mistake being made in the first place and I don’t know that those types of admissions get made very often by anyone.
BUY or SELL: More than five football players transfer out of UT between now and fall camp?
(Buy) Texas has averaged more than seven players worth of attrition over the last 15 years. It’s one of the reasons I believe Texas can take a full class in 2018 because by the time we get to the fall of 2018, the math says at least 13-18 players will depart the program as part of normal turnover.
BUY or SELL: Tom Herman has some personality traits that will limit his ability to recruit elite players absent him showing great success on the field?
(Sell) It might take winning for him to win over elite recruits, but that’s not because of any defaults in his personality. Personally, I think my 18-year-old self would have really liked playing for him.
BUY or SELL: Tom Herman reels in a top-5 class in 2018?
(Sell) On the other hand, I’ll buy a top-10 class.
BUY or SELL: Shane is starting quarterback at the start of the season and still the starting quarterback at the end of the season.
(Buy) I think… *long hesitation* ... I think.
BUY or SELL: Tim Beck will turn out to be Shawn Watson 2.0?
(Sell) It’s important to remember that whatever happens with Beck, he has an offensive supervisor in Herman, which is something that Watson didn’t have and suffered from, as someone that didn’t represent a high-end coordinator option.
BUY or SELL: Texas extending so many OOS offers is as much about growing the Texas brand, keeping people talking, and future years, as it is hoping to land 5* recruits for 2018?
(Sell) You can’t win lottery tickets that you don’t buy. Think of the Longhorns as one of those dudes at the bar that tries to talk to every girl in sight in hopes that just one wants to have a conversation. Herman’s staff is looking to strike up conversations that might lead to a few dates and whatever else might materialize from there.
BUY or SELL: Shaka Smart is the Texas Coach for the 2018/19 season?
(Buy) I’m still very much #TeamShaka and believe that the ship is heading in the right direction next season.
BUY or SELL: Shaka's seat is not as hot as Chuck's after year two but it will be uncomfortably warm?
(Sell) Shaka just received a contract extension that will pay him through the 2022-23 season. With all of the dead money coming from football, I have to believe that Shaka is under no real external pressure at the moment. Texas is not eating nearly anywhere near the remaining 20 million on his contract if it flinched at the thought of 15 million or so on Strong’s contract.
BUY or SELL: You cannot coach basketball sense or IQ, if you will?
(Sell) Why not? It’s not rocket science.
BUY or SELL: I'm an inadequate film lover because I've NEVER seen Blade Runner?
(Sell) I’m an adequate film lover and I have NEVER see Blade Runner. Discuss.
No. 5– The greatest recruiting class in the history of the state ...
It’s a hell of a thing to peak when you’re 21 years old, but Ladainian Tomlinson’s induction into the NFL Hall of Fame this week probably cements that fact for me.
Twenty years ago this week, I released my first set of rankings as someone inside the football recruiting industry and two decades worth of time have proven two things.
I’ve never done a better set of rankings than my first set.
The 1997 class is the greatest recruiting class in the history of Texas football.
Over the years, I’ve patted myself on the back quite a bit for my ranking of Drew Brees, who I slotted in the No. 10 spot (despite having only two offers) and proclaimed would be a Heisman finalist before he ever stepped foot on the Purdue campus (it’s true, ask Internet legend texlarry).
Yet, Brees is only part of the story that year.
The other big hit for me that year was the inclusion of a former Waco University running back at No. 29, despite the fact that he wasn’t ranked as a state top 100 player by anyone else in the industry. Yes, in my first year of doing rankings, I pegged two unknown future NFL Hall of Fame players in my top 30.
All these years later, all I can do is be thankful for being a Central Texas homer at a rare time when two of the greatest football players that ever lived were coming up through the high school ranks.
Yet, if you’ll dig a little deeper, you’ll see that the class that was defined at the time by the presence of former John Tyler star David Warren (No. 1 prospect in the country) went on to become something that’s almost unfathomable. Consider the other players from the Top 42 that year that went on to have NFL careers.
No. 3 - Wortham offensive lineman Leonard Davis
No. 4 - Abilene cooper running back Dominique Rhodes
No. 7 - LaPorte defensive lineman Shaun Rogers
No. 11 - Dallas Carter wide receiver Darryl Jones
No. 14 - The Woodland linebacker Grant Irons
No. 15 - Austin Westlake offensive lineman Seth McKinney
No. 17 - Angleton defensive back Quentin Jammer
No. 18 - John Tyler defensive back Gary Baxter
No. 22 - Aldine athlete D.D. Lewis
No. 23 - North Shore offensive lineman Andre Gurode
No. 24 - Baytown Sterling defensive lineman Rocky Bernard
No. 26 - Aldine Nimitz defensive back Jason Glenn
No. 32 - Killeen Ellison defensive back Michael Jamison
No. 36 - Klein Forest defensive lineman Ron Edwards
No. 42 - Caldwell defensive lineman Kris Kocurek
That’s just a stupid list of talent and it doesn’t even include players like Hodges Mitchell, Roylin Bradley, John Norman, Samir Al-Amin or Wayne Rodgers, all very good college players. We’re talking four first-round picks and another handful of second round picks as well.
It’s a year that saw the entire state Top 42 perform as if they were all five-star prospects and it’s a year that remains the bar for which all future recruiting years will be measured.
No. 6 – The best part of February ...
Nine games to go. That’s all that remains in this wretched second basketball season under Shaka Smart after the Longhorns dropped to five games under .500 for the second time this season, an uninspiring truth about the program that hasn’t occurred since 1993.
On Saturday, there were essentially two positive notes about the game.
Jarrett Allen was outstanding, posting 22 points, nine rebounds, two assists, three steals and two blocks.
The game ended with a running time of about one hours and 50 minutes, which meant that those that were torturing themselves by watching the entire game were given a quicker viewing death than normal.
Outside of that, I've got nothing. The only thing that saved this team from a 30-point beatdown was an unbreakable spirit, but in the context of a double-digit loss that at the hands of a basketball program that few respect, the weight of that comment in game No. 23 of the season isn’t much.
If this season was being played on the X-Box or Playstation, we all would have hit the reset button numerous times by now, but all we can really do is count down the games until this thing ends.
Barring any overtime, we’re talking T-minus 360 minutes until we can move along forever.
No. 7 – The cross that Karen Aston has to bear …
Eventually, if the Texas women’s basketball team wants to climb the mountaintop, it has to go through Kim Mulkey’s Baylor Bears.
With a 16-game winning streak in hand, including a perfect 12-0 record to start Big 12 play, the team formerly known as the Lady Longhorns heads to Baylor on Monday night for a match-up that will define just how far the team has come since losing a string of games against top-10 teams to begin the season.
All that stands in the way of a 13-0 start is the team that currently owns a 14-game winning streak against the Longhorns.
Honestly, we’ve been here before.
A year ago, the Longhorns thought they were ready for the Mulkey-ball challenge and ended up losing three times by a combined 55 points. While the Longhorns have taken baby steps forward in each of the last three NCAA Tournaments, they have to find a way to upend the most dominant women’s basketball program in the history of the Big 12.
Opportunity No. 1 is on Monday night in Waco. Two weeks later to the day, opportunity No. 2 will arrive in a nationally televised home game. In order to win the Big 12 title and truly signal that Aston’s program has arrived as a national heavyweight, it has to keep this current losing streak against the Bears from reaching 16 games.
That’s easier said than done, as sometimes the most difficult step to take on the path to greatness is the final one.
No. 8 – Tom F&*^$#@ Brady …
Tonight, it becomes official. You don't have to like it. You don't have to love it. But, you better believe we're looking at the greatest quarterback of all-time.
I might be an Aaron Rodgers guy, but there's no getting away from Brady's resume.
And this performance tonight. My goodness, 466 yards passing in leading the Pats back from 25 points down in the third quarter?
Throw after throw after throw that stole a little bit of Atlanta's soul along the way.
It's all a little too much to fathom. Now excuse me, while I go watch Roger Goodell hand him the Super Bowl trophy.
*Bonus Super Bowl thoughts*
a. Matt Ryan failed the test. I don't care what his final game rating was.
b. The city of Atlanta... man...
c. You couldn't pay me to miss Bomani Jones' show on Monday.
d. Arthur Blank going down to the sidelines before the game is over is never going to be forgotten.
e. Jake Matthews is Atlanta's version of Jackie Smith. That city will never forget that holding call.
f. What a cruel death that was for the Falcons, especially once the Patriots won the coin toss going into overtime. There was just no stopping what was occurring.
g. How on earth did Julio Jones make that catch? That might buy his ticket into the NFL Hall of Fame one day.
h. Speaking of catches, holy Julian Edelman! David Tyree salutes you.
i. Devonte Freeman is a superstar.
j. Taylor Gabriel was one of the best players on the field. He was cut by the Cleveland Browns THIS year.
k. Was really hoping that Martellus Bennett would catch a touchdown, but he basically sealed the game by drawing that pass interference penalty. What a homecoming.
l. Roger Goodell is going to need a bottle of crown tonight. Maybe two.
m. Gaga killed the halftime show. Can't ask for much more than that.
No. 9 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
… I’ve been predicting this for years, but seeing Jerry Jones inducted into the NFL Hall of Fame still kind of numbs the mind. I have to think that Saturday was the best night of his life because after all these years, he’s got a gold jacket and Jimmy Johnson doesn’t. That’s all-time scoreboard right there.
… With all due respect to Morten Andersen, there’s simply no justification for his inclusion into the NFL Hall of Fame over the likes of anyone else that was a finalist. I don’t care how long he played, his career accuracy as a placekicker is less than 80 percent, which is 10 percentage points lower than current Dallas Cowboys kicker Dan Bailey’s career mark. Former Cowboys safety Darren Woodson revolutionized his position in the league, won three Super Bowls and is the all-time leading tackler for America’s Team, and he can’t even crack the finals of the voting, but Anderson gets in? Over Terrell Owens? Over Joe Jacoby? Over anyone else that didn’t get in?
… The strength of Big 12 basketball was on full display on Saturday, as unranked Iowa State, Kansas State and Oklahoma State knocked off top 10 Kansas (ending a 51-game home winning streak), Baylor and West Virginia.
… I consider myself a pretty big UFC fan and I just don’t understand what the organization is doing to grow the sport. On a night when it had my full attention with a free card on Fox, the main event involved the No. 9-ranked featherweight and a guy that used to be interesting. The co-main event featured two women I’ve never heard of. Meanwhile, I’m not sure there’s a fight on next week’s pay-per-view that is remotely interesting. I just don’t understand how the sport is supposed to grow and improve with a watered down product.
… Liverpool is in an absolute free-fall since the start of 2017. I love Jurgen Klopp, but he’s facing a bit of a crisis on his hands and he has to find a way to get the train back on the tracks. It’s also time for Philippe Coutinho to consistently be the player that he’s regarded to be.
… Chelsea is going to win the league going away in a big way. Everyone else is fighting for Champions League spots.
... I want Gabriel Jesus on my team. Can we fast-track that?
… After Friday night’s win over Jamaica, I have to think that FC Dallas defender Walker Zimmerman is going to get more run from Bruce Arena in the coming months.
… Speaking of the USMNT, Bruce Arena has an interesting to decision to make at the No. 10 spot between Sacha Kljestan or Benny Feilhaber. Personally, I’m a Kljestan guy, but there’s no question that Feilhaber knows how to create a little magic.
No. 10 - And finally …
Take a look at the best thing that happened this weekend.
"We signed 19 guys in 2012 in February. At Ohio State, they had, I think, six guys that were midyear enrollees that, quite frankly, we didn't have a whole lot to do with. That was more Coach Tressel and Coach Fickell. We signed 19 guys in February, and that was the fifth-ranked class in the country. Now, five years later, I just researched that class, three out of 19 wound up playing significant time for Ohio State University off the fifth-ranked class in the country.
Tom Herman at Wednesday’s Signing Day Press Conference
Houston, we might have a problem.
Might.
Might
In listening to Herman discuss multiple times in the last month what he believes is a trend in college football of new coaches signing unfulfilling debut recruiting classes (rankings, be damned!), I couldn’t help but stew a little over his words because unintentionally they play into a working theory that I have in my head about Herman’s future at Texas.
However, before we dive deep into the rabbit’s hole of another one of my football theories, let’s just focus on Herman’s theory first.
After all, history does show that he has a point. Just look at the class that Charlie Strong whipped together in his first month in Austin, built on a pile of Mack Brown leftovers and a few kids of his own choosing heading into signing day. Or Mack's borderline Top 10 class in 1998 that produced one really tremendous player and a bunch of guys that were place-holders until more talented players took their jobs.
Of the players that remain from that 2014 class, the best of the lot are probably Chris Nelson, Poona Ford, Armanti Foreman, Jerrod Heard, Jason Hall, John Bonney and Jake McMillon. While I might contend that every single one of them is a nice player that has showed some flashes at various times in their careers, none have truly emerged as standout players at this level.
Let me put it like this, none of those players are starting on the best teams from the 2004-09 glory era of the program under Mack, although D’Onta Foreman most certainly would have if he was still on campus.
The problem for Herman is twofold. First of all, that group of pretty good players mostly represents the best of a very small (12 players) senior class that he inherits. Secondly, when you combine the 2014 and 2017 classes together, you’re left talking about 50 percent of the classes from 2014-17 that make up the Herman’s initial roster. If you combine what’s left from 2014 and what was added on Wednesday, the total number of players from those two seasons to pull success from is 29.
Twenty-nine.
That is not ideal and this is where we get to my theory.
In order for the Longhorns to have any tangible success before the turn of the decade, Tom Herman and his staff have to connect in a huge way with the 2015 and 2016 recruiting classes. You can make a case (and that’s kind of what I’m doing) that Herman’s entire career in Austin largely rests on his ability to win with Charlie Strong’s players, which is ironic for a two big reasons.
a. No one blinked when Strong arrived, cleaned out the roster and bet his success on his own players. Ultimately, Strong didn’t get a chance to see his own recruits turn into upperclassmen because he couldn’t win with what Mack Brown left him in the cupboard.
b. Fast-forward to 2017 and no one is saying the things about the talent pool that Herman inherits from Strong that they did about Brown’s “soft” and “entitled” leftovers that were left for Strong. That’s because Strong smashed it out of the park in terms of acquiring raw talent in the last two recruiting classes, although nine of that translated into success on the field.
Just like with Houston following the 2014 season, this is where Herman walks in. It remains to be seen just how good Herman is at building a program for long-term success because he’s only been a head coach for two seasons, but the one thing he proved at Houston that could be critical to his new task is that he can take someone else’s ingredients and cook up one very tasty meal.
Herman didn’t have a magical 2015 season with his guys, he had a magical 2015 season with Tony Levine’s players. Truth be told, Herman’s never had a team full of “Herman guys.” In the here and now, the fact that Herman’s slight track record points to him being able to succeed with players he didn’t recruit above all else is a critically important element for this program.
Why?
Well, if he can’t, he runs the risk of running into the same issues that Strong ran into involving his own recruiting classes. Let’s say for the sake of conversation that Herman can’t turn the pieces of the 2015 and 2016 classes into something special, then the classes that Herman signs in 2018 and 2019 will potentially end up being the first true foundation blocks of a championship program.
As has turned out to be the case with the 2015 and 2016 classes, it will likely take a few years for those classes to achieve consistent high levels of performance, which means we might be talking about 2020 before Herman guys could lead the program to the highest of heights.
For those scoring at home, that’s four seasons from now.
There’s not a person wearing burnt orange today that would sign off on waiting through three mediocre seasons under Herman before the first possible outstanding season takes place.
These truths bring me back to Herman’s theory on first-year recruiting classes. If the 2017 Texas recruiting class ends up being pretty good (but not great), almost of Herman’s chips are in on the nearly four dozen prospects that remain from 2015 and 2016.
It has to be them.
It has to be them now.
It has to be them now or I don’t when it’s going to be.
This is what it looks like when Herman’s theory and my theory get together for a dance party.
No. 2 – The ultimate silver lining in this story ...
When you look at the remains of Strong’s last two classes, you find a deep pool of talent that spans almost every position on the field and seems to begging to have a smart football staff figure out the best way to extrapolate all of the talent inside of it.
Let’s take a quick snapshot at what remains from these two classes.
Quarterbacks: (2) Shane Buechele and Matthew Merrick
Running backs (4): Chris Warren, Kirk Johnson, Tristan Houston and Kyle Porter
Wide receivers (6): John Burt, Devin Duvernay, Collin Johnson, Reggie Hemphill-Mapps, Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Davion Curtis
Tight ends: (1) Peyton Aucoin
Offensive linemen (10): Connor Williams, Patrick Vahe, Ronnie Major, Garrett Thomas, Jean Delance, Tope Imade, Denzel Okafor, Zach Shackelford, Patrick Hudson and J.P. Urquidez
Defensive linemen (8): Charles Omenihu, Malcolm Roach, Andrew Fitzgerald, Marcel Southall, Gerald Wilson, D’Andre Christmas, Chris Daniels and Jordan Elliott
Linebackers (7): Malik Jefferson, Breckyn Hager, Anthony Wheeler, Cameron Townsend, Erick Fowler, Jeffrey McCulloch and DeMarco Boyd
Defensive backs (9): Davante Davis, Holton Hill, Kris Boyd, DeShon Elliott, P..J. Locke, Brandon Jones, Eric Cuffee, Chris Brown and Donovan Duvernay
Add all of that together and you’ve got 47 total players for Herman and his coaching staff to work with. In order for the Longhorns to become a team that can win 10 games and compete for a Big 12 title before the end of this decade, I’d guess that more than a dozen from this group have to emerge as high-end college players/future NFL prospects.
Of those positions, I’d list wide receivers, offensive line, linebackers and defensive backs as the strength of the current roster, and I have zero doubts that at least a couple of future NFL players are inside each of those position groups. On the other hand, I’m not sure what to think about with the running backs, tight ends and defensive linemen that remain.
The wild-card in this entire discussion is probably Buechele (and/or 2017 class member Sam Ehlinger).
While it might take a wide-ranging group of impact players to get Texas to a championship, great quarterback play can speed the process of being very good, very quickly.
Herman, the Quarterback Whisperer, has two guys with which to work and one of those two must not only prove that he can play at a top-25 level nationally at his position, but he has to prove that he can hold up to the rigors of big-time college football. If that can’t happen, we’re back to talking about the 2018 recruiting class as a true starting point in Herman’s program and that just can’t happen.
Overall, there’s not a lot of wiggle-room with which to work for Herman, but the talent in those two critical classes is there. If Herman’s the guy most believe him to be, he’ll not only get those two classes to hit peak talent development, but he’ll have them in a position to be remembered with the likes of the 1999 and 2002 recruiting classes, which are forever credited for forever changing the culture in the program.
If Herman can’t … well … let’s not think about that right now.
No. 3 – Breaking down the 2017 class in immediate terms …
… Members of the 2017 recruiting class that I expect to see the field this year:
QB San Ehlinger (he’ll play an immediate role on this team)
RB Toneil Carter (possible No.2 by the opening game)
WR Damion Miller (too talented to redshirt)
TE Reese Leitao (bodies are needed)
DE Jamari Chisholm (probably a back-up)
LB Gary Johnson (opening game starter)
DB Josh Thompson (possible special teams ace)
K Joshua Rowland (it’s his job to lose)
… Members of the 2017 class that I expect to definitely redshirt this year:
WR Jordan Pouncey
OL Derek Kerstetter
OL Sam Cosmi
DE Max Cummins
DB Kobe Boyece
… Members of the 2017 class that I think could sneak in with some game snaps in 2017, but might redshirt:
RB Daniel Young
TE Cade Brewer
DE Taquan Graham
LB Marquez Bimage
DB Montrell Estelle
No. 4 – Buy or sell …
BUY or SELL: At least three Texas players would start for Alabama in 2017?
(Buy) Connor Williams, Malik Jefferson, Devin Duvernay, Jeff McCulloch, Gary Johnson, Malcolm Roach and … wait for it … Shane Buchele could start for Alabama, in part because Alabama is going to have a ton of turnover on defense this season.
BUY or SELL: Eight wins is a realistic expectation for next season?
(Buy) Yes, a three-game improvement is more than fair, especially given the really tough schedule that the Longhorns will take on.
BUY or SELL: The 2017 Texas offensive line will be the best one we have had in 10 years going back to the early Colt McCoy days?
(Buy) Williams is the best lineman the program has had since Justin Blalock departed the program by a country mile and I think the pieces of the puzzle that will line up with him have a chance to match those very average lines that McCoy played with.
BUY or SELL: Casey Horny still works for UT when the season starts?
(Buy) Removing him now would be an admission of a mistake being made in the first place and I don’t know that those types of admissions get made very often by anyone.
BUY or SELL: More than five football players transfer out of UT between now and fall camp?
(Buy) Texas has averaged more than seven players worth of attrition over the last 15 years. It’s one of the reasons I believe Texas can take a full class in 2018 because by the time we get to the fall of 2018, the math says at least 13-18 players will depart the program as part of normal turnover.
BUY or SELL: Tom Herman has some personality traits that will limit his ability to recruit elite players absent him showing great success on the field?
(Sell) It might take winning for him to win over elite recruits, but that’s not because of any defaults in his personality. Personally, I think my 18-year-old self would have really liked playing for him.
BUY or SELL: Tom Herman reels in a top-5 class in 2018?
(Sell) On the other hand, I’ll buy a top-10 class.
BUY or SELL: Shane is starting quarterback at the start of the season and still the starting quarterback at the end of the season.
(Buy) I think… *long hesitation* ... I think.
BUY or SELL: Tim Beck will turn out to be Shawn Watson 2.0?
(Sell) It’s important to remember that whatever happens with Beck, he has an offensive supervisor in Herman, which is something that Watson didn’t have and suffered from, as someone that didn’t represent a high-end coordinator option.
BUY or SELL: Texas extending so many OOS offers is as much about growing the Texas brand, keeping people talking, and future years, as it is hoping to land 5* recruits for 2018?
(Sell) You can’t win lottery tickets that you don’t buy. Think of the Longhorns as one of those dudes at the bar that tries to talk to every girl in sight in hopes that just one wants to have a conversation. Herman’s staff is looking to strike up conversations that might lead to a few dates and whatever else might materialize from there.
BUY or SELL: Shaka Smart is the Texas Coach for the 2018/19 season?
(Buy) I’m still very much #TeamShaka and believe that the ship is heading in the right direction next season.
BUY or SELL: Shaka's seat is not as hot as Chuck's after year two but it will be uncomfortably warm?
(Sell) Shaka just received a contract extension that will pay him through the 2022-23 season. With all of the dead money coming from football, I have to believe that Shaka is under no real external pressure at the moment. Texas is not eating nearly anywhere near the remaining 20 million on his contract if it flinched at the thought of 15 million or so on Strong’s contract.
BUY or SELL: You cannot coach basketball sense or IQ, if you will?
(Sell) Why not? It’s not rocket science.
BUY or SELL: I'm an inadequate film lover because I've NEVER seen Blade Runner?
(Sell) I’m an adequate film lover and I have NEVER see Blade Runner. Discuss.
No. 5– The greatest recruiting class in the history of the state ...
It’s a hell of a thing to peak when you’re 21 years old, but Ladainian Tomlinson’s induction into the NFL Hall of Fame this week probably cements that fact for me.
Twenty years ago this week, I released my first set of rankings as someone inside the football recruiting industry and two decades worth of time have proven two things.
I’ve never done a better set of rankings than my first set.
The 1997 class is the greatest recruiting class in the history of Texas football.
Over the years, I’ve patted myself on the back quite a bit for my ranking of Drew Brees, who I slotted in the No. 10 spot (despite having only two offers) and proclaimed would be a Heisman finalist before he ever stepped foot on the Purdue campus (it’s true, ask Internet legend texlarry).
Yet, Brees is only part of the story that year.
The other big hit for me that year was the inclusion of a former Waco University running back at No. 29, despite the fact that he wasn’t ranked as a state top 100 player by anyone else in the industry. Yes, in my first year of doing rankings, I pegged two unknown future NFL Hall of Fame players in my top 30.
All these years later, all I can do is be thankful for being a Central Texas homer at a rare time when two of the greatest football players that ever lived were coming up through the high school ranks.
Yet, if you’ll dig a little deeper, you’ll see that the class that was defined at the time by the presence of former John Tyler star David Warren (No. 1 prospect in the country) went on to become something that’s almost unfathomable. Consider the other players from the Top 42 that year that went on to have NFL careers.
No. 3 - Wortham offensive lineman Leonard Davis
No. 4 - Abilene cooper running back Dominique Rhodes
No. 7 - LaPorte defensive lineman Shaun Rogers
No. 11 - Dallas Carter wide receiver Darryl Jones
No. 14 - The Woodland linebacker Grant Irons
No. 15 - Austin Westlake offensive lineman Seth McKinney
No. 17 - Angleton defensive back Quentin Jammer
No. 18 - John Tyler defensive back Gary Baxter
No. 22 - Aldine athlete D.D. Lewis
No. 23 - North Shore offensive lineman Andre Gurode
No. 24 - Baytown Sterling defensive lineman Rocky Bernard
No. 26 - Aldine Nimitz defensive back Jason Glenn
No. 32 - Killeen Ellison defensive back Michael Jamison
No. 36 - Klein Forest defensive lineman Ron Edwards
No. 42 - Caldwell defensive lineman Kris Kocurek
That’s just a stupid list of talent and it doesn’t even include players like Hodges Mitchell, Roylin Bradley, John Norman, Samir Al-Amin or Wayne Rodgers, all very good college players. We’re talking four first-round picks and another handful of second round picks as well.
It’s a year that saw the entire state Top 42 perform as if they were all five-star prospects and it’s a year that remains the bar for which all future recruiting years will be measured.
No. 6 – The best part of February ...
Nine games to go. That’s all that remains in this wretched second basketball season under Shaka Smart after the Longhorns dropped to five games under .500 for the second time this season, an uninspiring truth about the program that hasn’t occurred since 1993.
On Saturday, there were essentially two positive notes about the game.
Jarrett Allen was outstanding, posting 22 points, nine rebounds, two assists, three steals and two blocks.
The game ended with a running time of about one hours and 50 minutes, which meant that those that were torturing themselves by watching the entire game were given a quicker viewing death than normal.
Outside of that, I've got nothing. The only thing that saved this team from a 30-point beatdown was an unbreakable spirit, but in the context of a double-digit loss that at the hands of a basketball program that few respect, the weight of that comment in game No. 23 of the season isn’t much.
If this season was being played on the X-Box or Playstation, we all would have hit the reset button numerous times by now, but all we can really do is count down the games until this thing ends.
Barring any overtime, we’re talking T-minus 360 minutes until we can move along forever.
No. 7 – The cross that Karen Aston has to bear …
Eventually, if the Texas women’s basketball team wants to climb the mountaintop, it has to go through Kim Mulkey’s Baylor Bears.
With a 16-game winning streak in hand, including a perfect 12-0 record to start Big 12 play, the team formerly known as the Lady Longhorns heads to Baylor on Monday night for a match-up that will define just how far the team has come since losing a string of games against top-10 teams to begin the season.
All that stands in the way of a 13-0 start is the team that currently owns a 14-game winning streak against the Longhorns.
Honestly, we’ve been here before.
A year ago, the Longhorns thought they were ready for the Mulkey-ball challenge and ended up losing three times by a combined 55 points. While the Longhorns have taken baby steps forward in each of the last three NCAA Tournaments, they have to find a way to upend the most dominant women’s basketball program in the history of the Big 12.
Opportunity No. 1 is on Monday night in Waco. Two weeks later to the day, opportunity No. 2 will arrive in a nationally televised home game. In order to win the Big 12 title and truly signal that Aston’s program has arrived as a national heavyweight, it has to keep this current losing streak against the Bears from reaching 16 games.
That’s easier said than done, as sometimes the most difficult step to take on the path to greatness is the final one.
No. 8 – Tom F&*^$#@ Brady …
Tonight, it becomes official. You don't have to like it. You don't have to love it. But, you better believe we're looking at the greatest quarterback of all-time.
I might be an Aaron Rodgers guy, but there's no getting away from Brady's resume.
And this performance tonight. My goodness, 466 yards passing in leading the Pats back from 25 points down in the third quarter?
Throw after throw after throw that stole a little bit of Atlanta's soul along the way.
It's all a little too much to fathom. Now excuse me, while I go watch Roger Goodell hand him the Super Bowl trophy.
*Bonus Super Bowl thoughts*
a. Matt Ryan failed the test. I don't care what his final game rating was.
b. The city of Atlanta... man...
c. You couldn't pay me to miss Bomani Jones' show on Monday.
d. Arthur Blank going down to the sidelines before the game is over is never going to be forgotten.
e. Jake Matthews is Atlanta's version of Jackie Smith. That city will never forget that holding call.
f. What a cruel death that was for the Falcons, especially once the Patriots won the coin toss going into overtime. There was just no stopping what was occurring.
g. How on earth did Julio Jones make that catch? That might buy his ticket into the NFL Hall of Fame one day.
h. Speaking of catches, holy Julian Edelman! David Tyree salutes you.
i. Devonte Freeman is a superstar.
j. Taylor Gabriel was one of the best players on the field. He was cut by the Cleveland Browns THIS year.
k. Was really hoping that Martellus Bennett would catch a touchdown, but he basically sealed the game by drawing that pass interference penalty. What a homecoming.
l. Roger Goodell is going to need a bottle of crown tonight. Maybe two.
m. Gaga killed the halftime show. Can't ask for much more than that.
No. 9 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
… I’ve been predicting this for years, but seeing Jerry Jones inducted into the NFL Hall of Fame still kind of numbs the mind. I have to think that Saturday was the best night of his life because after all these years, he’s got a gold jacket and Jimmy Johnson doesn’t. That’s all-time scoreboard right there.
… With all due respect to Morten Andersen, there’s simply no justification for his inclusion into the NFL Hall of Fame over the likes of anyone else that was a finalist. I don’t care how long he played, his career accuracy as a placekicker is less than 80 percent, which is 10 percentage points lower than current Dallas Cowboys kicker Dan Bailey’s career mark. Former Cowboys safety Darren Woodson revolutionized his position in the league, won three Super Bowls and is the all-time leading tackler for America’s Team, and he can’t even crack the finals of the voting, but Anderson gets in? Over Terrell Owens? Over Joe Jacoby? Over anyone else that didn’t get in?
… The strength of Big 12 basketball was on full display on Saturday, as unranked Iowa State, Kansas State and Oklahoma State knocked off top 10 Kansas (ending a 51-game home winning streak), Baylor and West Virginia.
… I consider myself a pretty big UFC fan and I just don’t understand what the organization is doing to grow the sport. On a night when it had my full attention with a free card on Fox, the main event involved the No. 9-ranked featherweight and a guy that used to be interesting. The co-main event featured two women I’ve never heard of. Meanwhile, I’m not sure there’s a fight on next week’s pay-per-view that is remotely interesting. I just don’t understand how the sport is supposed to grow and improve with a watered down product.
… Liverpool is in an absolute free-fall since the start of 2017. I love Jurgen Klopp, but he’s facing a bit of a crisis on his hands and he has to find a way to get the train back on the tracks. It’s also time for Philippe Coutinho to consistently be the player that he’s regarded to be.
… Chelsea is going to win the league going away in a big way. Everyone else is fighting for Champions League spots.
... I want Gabriel Jesus on my team. Can we fast-track that?
… After Friday night’s win over Jamaica, I have to think that FC Dallas defender Walker Zimmerman is going to get more run from Bruce Arena in the coming months.
… Speaking of the USMNT, Bruce Arena has an interesting to decision to make at the No. 10 spot between Sacha Kljestan or Benny Feilhaber. Personally, I’m a Kljestan guy, but there’s no question that Feilhaber knows how to create a little magic.
No. 10 - And finally …
Take a look at the best thing that happened this weekend.
Texas really benefited from Baylor collapse, getting several terrific offensive players for Herman to work with.
Question--Were you a member of Charlie's staff b/c it seems weird a reasonable adult would post the stuff you do regarding Herman?
It's as if you tried to see how many stupid/wrong things you can post.
His career hasn't been short, his head coaching career has. "All he has done is win with others players." Really? yeah, b/c any idiot off the street could have beaten 3 top 5 teams with all that amazing talent at UH.
why don't you just type out you hate Herman and save yourself the embarrassment of your ridiculous points you try to make?
Who wiped the slime off the bust of Jerry Jones before the induction ceremony?
Enjoyed it, as usual, my man.
On the UFC, it's an interesting discussion. Do you want less fights, thus making more "highly ranked" fights, or do you just want good fights? I don't mind a lot of fights, because you have a lot of mouths to feed, I just want the PPVs to be stacked. It's been hit or miss lately and star power is not on their side right now.
Their three legitimate stars aren't available and may never be again. Jon Jones is out for a while and will he ever get it together or be trusted again to carry a card? Probably not. Would he even draw big today? Maybe better than average, but not great, IMO.
Rousey is well......ugh. I think we all see where that is going. Bad knockouts change some people forever, especially those with inferior coaching.
And then there's Conor. Good luck guessing what that guy's gonna do, and they are basically beholden to him at this point. I think this Floyd thing is a real possibility...and the window isn't forever. They both want to capitalize on timing and if Conor comes back to fight somebody in the UFC and loses again, where does that leave the Floyd fight? Floyd already has invested in the 50-0 mark and would love to do it against someone like Conor. It's the only guy that could pull that kind of payday with little risk. He ain't fighting GGG or the like. My concern would be yes, Conor fighting Floyd would be nice for the UFC brand, but what does it mean in the bigger picture? Does Conor retire after that payday? What does it signal as far as fighter rights and the like in MMA? Interesting shit.
So, they could reach for GSP, but how long could that last? They have to find some stars, but in the meantime they are just trying to use a quantity of good fights, but if nobody is watching it doesn't work. Their other young prospects are good fighters, but not many naturally charismatic stars. Theres a lot of guys talking cheesy shit and trying to copycat Conor et al, but it's largely not believable. Or they've got a guy who speaks English as a fifth language and doesn't have the connection. For example, I think Khabib tries too hard, he should just have taken the Drago approach and said minimal, scary shit. Anyway, lots of talent, but they need stars for Joe Public. I'm a nerd, so not the best person to judge this, because I'll take all the fights they can make, but I would say they could stand to cinch the belt a little, but it's tough, because the fighters already complain they don't get to fight enough. Also, with injuries and suspensions, etc, relying on a small group is really getting tough.
I could keep going, but I won't. Very interesting stuff though. Saturday was a very underwhelming card. I think Dana just set it up because he wanted it next to the super bowl, which he was gonna attend anyway.
Unrelated: you gonna watch Womens basketball tonight?
On the UFC, it's an interesting discussion. Do you want less fights, thus making more "highly ranked" fights, or do you just want good fights? I don't mind a lot of fights, because you have a lot of mouths to feed, I just want the PPVs to be stacked. It's been hit or miss lately and star power is not on their side right now.
Their three legitimate stars aren't available and may never be again. Jon Jones is out for a while and will he ever get it together or be trusted again to carry a card? Probably not. Would he even draw big today? Maybe better than average, but not great, IMO.
Rousey is well......ugh. I think we all see where that is going. Bad knockouts change some people forever, especially those with inferior coaching.
And then there's Conor. Good luck guessing what that guy's gonna do, and they are basically beholden to him at this point. I think this Floyd thing is a real possibility...and the window isn't forever. They both want to capitalize on timing and if Conor comes back to fight somebody in the UFC and loses again, where does that leave the Floyd fight? Floyd already has invested in the 50-0 mark and would love to do it against someone like Conor. It's the only guy that could pull that kind of payday with little risk. He ain't fighting GGG or the like. My concern would be yes, Conor fighting Floyd would be nice for the UFC brand, but what does it mean in the bigger picture? Does Conor retire after that payday? What does it signal as far as fighter rights and the like in MMA? Interesting shit.
So, they could reach for GSP, but how long could that last? They have to find some stars, but in the meantime they are just trying to use a quantity of good fights, but if nobody is watching it doesn't work. Their other young prospects are good fighters, but not many naturally charismatic stars. Theres a lot of guys talking cheesy shit and trying to copycat Conor et al, but it's largely not believable. Or they've got a guy who speaks English as a fifth language and doesn't have the connection. For example, I think Khabib tries too hard, he should just have taken the Drago approach and said minimal, scary shit. Anyway, lots of talent, but they need stars for Joe Public. I'm a nerd, so not the best person to judge this, because I'll take all the fights they can make, but I would say they could stand to cinch the belt a little, but it's tough, because the fighters already complain they don't get to fight enough. Also, with injuries and suspensions, etc, relying on a small group is really getting tough.
I could keep going, but I won't. Very interesting stuff though. Saturday was a very underwhelming card. I think Dana just set it up because he wanted it next to the super bowl, which he was gonna attend anyway.
Unrelated: you gonna watch Womens basketball tonight?
The point of having public rankings in the UFC should be exactly the point of having rankings in college football and college basketball.Enjoyed it, as usual, my man.
On the UFC, it's an interesting discussion. Do you want less fights, thus making more "highly ranked" fights, or do you just want good fights? I don't mind a lot of fights, because you have a lot of mouths to feed, I just want the PPVs to be stacked. It's been hit or miss lately and star power is not on their side right now.
Their three legitimate stars aren't available and may never be again. Jon Jones is out for a while and will he ever get it together or be trusted again to carry a card? Probably not. Would he even draw big today? Maybe better than average, but not great, IMO.
Rousey is well......ugh. I think we all see where that is going. Bad knockouts change some people forever, especially those with inferior coaching.
And then there's Conor. Good luck guessing what that guy's gonna do, and they are basically beholden to him at this point. I think this Floyd thing is a real possibility...and the window isn't forever. They both want to capitalize on timing and if Conor comes back to fight somebody in the UFC and loses again, where does that leave the Floyd fight? Floyd already has invested in the 50-0 mark and would love to do it against someone like Conor. It's the only guy that could pull that kind of payday with little risk. He ain't fighting GGG or the like. My concern would be yes, Conor fighting Floyd would be nice for the UFC brand, but what does it mean in the bigger picture? Does Conor retire after that payday? What does it signal as far as fighter rights and the like in MMA? Interesting shit.
So, they could reach for GSP, but how long could that last? They have to find some stars, but in the meantime they are just trying to use a quantity of good fights, but if nobody is watching it doesn't work. Their other young prospects are good fighters, but not many naturally charismatic stars. Theres a lot of guys talking cheesy shit and trying to copycat Conor et al, but it's largely not believable. Or they've got a guy who speaks English as a fifth language and doesn't have the connection. For example, I think Khabib tries too hard, he should just have taken the Drago approach and said minimal, scary shit. Anyway, lots of talent, but they need stars for Joe Public. I'm a nerd, so not the best person to judge this, because I'll take all the fights they can make, but I would say they could stand to cinch the belt a little, but it's tough, because the fighters already complain they don't get to fight enough. Also, with injuries and suspensions, etc, relying on a small group is really getting tough.
I could keep going, but I won't. Very interesting stuff though. Saturday was a very underwhelming card. I think Dana just set it up because he wanted it next to the super bowl, which he was gonna attend anyway.
Unrelated: you gonna watch Womens basketball tonight?
It drives up the interest in the games.
When the UFC gives me a card and it doesn't have a lot of ranked match ups (or any), then it tells me that I'm not watching something important.
The UFC has eight men's divisions, all ranked 1-15, not including champions, which means they have a pool of 128 ranked fighters.
I know there are injuries and various things going on, but there should never be a prime-time card that's not loaded with ranked vs. ranked matchups.
Geez, the main event on Saturday night was the No.9 guy in one class vs. The Zombie, who wasn't ranked at all.
The co-main event on Saturday night is a battle between the No.7/No.8 guys in the middleweight division? Are you kidding? That should be the No.5 fight on a PPV and maybe the co-main of a free card.
Why is some unranked dude named Randy Brown on the main card?
On a side note, yes, I will be watching tonight.
[/QUOTE]
I actually work with Grant, so it's funny seeing him on this list. I'll let him know he made your all-time Texas recruiting class list.
I agree that's the perception and would love to see more ranked fights. However, I'm a junkie and love competitive fights, so I'll watch almost anything. Like I said, I'm not a great barometer. I'd like to see them reduce the number of events, but not drastically. The matchmaking can be better, but timing can be tough to line up in this sport and the injuries are a big factor in changing/killing cards. I want to see champions defend their belts against the top of their division, with few exceptions. I'm ok with "some" of the Conor stuff, but say Bisping vs Dan Henderson was a joke of a booking. This upcoming card is shit from prestige perspective, as was the Houston card, I'm just hoping for some great fights. I agree with your point though, rankings and stars bring the general public.
