You were all over Garrett Gilbert too as I remember. You thought he was going to be one of the all time greats. Yes, you do have quantifiable history.No offense, but I'm not worried about you not being able to see what I see.
My career of rating elite quarterbacks quarterbacks.
1998 - Chip Ambres (Texas A&M)
2002 - Vince Young (Texas)
2002 - Reggie McNeal (Texas A&M)
2004 - Rhett Bomar (Oklahoma)
2006 - Matt Stafford (Georgia)
2007 - Ryan Mallett (Arkansas)
2009 - Garrett Gilbert (Texas)
2009 - Russell Shepard (LSU)
Ambres never made it to A&M because of pro baseball. McNeal was listed as an athlete by Rivals, but I rated him as a quarterback.
If we take Ambres of out of the equation I'm 7 for 7 all-time on the 5-star quarterbacks I've rated being drafted by NFL teams.
1997 - Drew Brees (Purdue)
2000 - Chance Mock (Texas)
2004 - Stephen McGee (Texas A&M)
2004 - Robbie Reid (Oklahoma State)
2006 - Jevan Snead (Texas)
2009 - Tyrik Rollion
2014 - Jerrod Heard (Texas)
2015 - Kyler Murray (Texas A&M)
2017 - Sam Ehlinger (Texas)
Overall, 11 of the 16 (68.8%) highest-rated quarterbacks I've graded over the course of the last two decades worth of recruiting have been drafted by NFL teams.
I know what my track record on this stuff is. My opinions on the matter can be quantified. As recent as the last completed recruiting class (2017), I was the only person to correctly name Ehlinger as the best quarterback in the state and a high four star prospect, a shot that I called before he even had a single scholarship offer.
Am I reading this correctly btw? Are you touting all those QB's as successes? Ambres, Bomar, Mallett, Gilbert, Russell Shepard? In my world they were all college football failures.
By my definition of success 3 of those guys were proven successes. If you're just going to use made it to the NFL that's too easy. How many of those QB's would you really want to go back and recruit again and make your focus of the program the next 4 years? That should be the criteria.
Then you both go back into the prior century and dip down into the high 4 stars trying to pad your stats (Drew Brees!).
Of that second group, after totally discounting Brees, I'll give you Murray, Ehlinger, and maybe McGee. I would have no interest in focusing my recruiting efforts on any of the others. That being said I'd put your overall numbers at 5 of 15 of those guys that I would legitimately want to recruit knowing what I know now. I didn't count the players from the 20th century.
Giving yourself credit for QB's that turn into NFL backups is ludicrous.
I could see both Card and Thompson ending up as NFL backups. That has no meaning for me. Whether Sam Ehlinger got drafted or not would not have changed my opinion of him either. It's just not a relevant way of determining recruiting success because it doesn't speak to how they played in college so much as it does to what tangible physical abilities they have. We all know the NFL drafts QB based on size and arm strength as much as anything unless a player has unique abilities.