Throughout the course of the last week, I’ve found myself thinking about a number of different players in the Texas program who have reached a certain line of their respective careers as we sit on the eve of spring workouts.
Will Armanti Foreman buy into the new lease on life that the presence of Charlie Williams provides because when he’s motivated and focused, he becomes one of the most dangerous receivers in the entire Big 12?
Can a young guy like safety DeShon Elliott develop enough that he pushes someone out of a job at safety or will upperclassman Jason Hall tap into just enough of his remaining upside as a player that he can hold off the young pack of wolves fiercely chasing him?
Is Malik Jefferson ready to be Malik Jefferson?
There are a number of truths about the roster with which Charlie Strong and his staff will work over the course of the next nine months and the fact that they are all twisted together speaks to both the challenges and possibilities of this season.
Truth No. 1
This is the best and most talented roster Charlie Strong has had to work with in his three seasons as coach in Austin. Three out of every four players on the roster are guys he personally recruited, which means he’s not trying to cook many meals without his own hand-picked groceries.
In particular, the class of 2015 potentially looms as the class that is remembered for changing the bar of success around these parts the way Mack Brown’s groups from 1999 and 2002 are remembered all these years later.
Truth No. 2
There’s not a single star on this team. Don’t get me wrong, there are a number of guys who possess star upside, but not one projected starter on either side of the ball earned first- or second-team all-Big 12 honors a year ago. While a player like Malik Jefferson earned a host of freshman honors, he wasn’t regarded as one of the top six players at his position in the conference.
To give you some perspective, Kansas State sophomore linebacker Elijah Lee, a player I only sort of remember from last season, was named as a second-team all-Big 12 linebacker ahead of Jefferson.
Truth No. 3
With few absolute known and proven top-shelf players, almost every player (and coach for that matter) in the program is at some important crossroads in his career.
In a lot of important cases, you’ve got really good players looking to take the step towards becoming great players. Guys like Jefferson, Holton Hill, D’Onta Foreman and Connor Williams have proven they can play at this level, but can they emerge as top-level college players, and if so, how quickly does it happen?
For guys like DeShon Elliott, Jerrod Heard, Lorenzo Joe and Anthony Wheeler, the crossroad deals with the ability to go from a player talked about for his talent to being one talked about because of consistent play. Can the players in this group emerge as starters and push others out of the line-up?
Meanwhile, there’s another group of crossroads players that includes the likes of Jason Hall, Tyrone Swoopes, Jacorey Warrick and Dylan Haines. Is this it? Is there anything left in any of these players that hasn’t already kept the line-up feeling as strong as it needs to be?
Up and down the entire depth chart, these personal crossroads moments are taking place within the program and in order for Strong’s team to go from taking Bob Wiley-like baby steps to a George Jefferson-like move to the East side, there has to be a very high volume of success in these personal crossroads.
Of course, the good news for Texas is that pushing these players over the jump in these personal crossroads is supposed to be the thing at which Strong is the best as a coach. Knock him for clock management or his choice in assistant coaches, but his work with players and ability to maximize their talent levels is well-chronicled. “Three-star Charlie” earned his nickname at Louisville because he could take overlooked players and turn them into NFL-level prospects capable of thriving at the collegiate level.
In a weird way, you can make the case that Charlie has everyone right where he wants them.
Right?
For the next six months or so, it becomes Charlie Time, a window of opportunity that exists for each player to take the wisdom, inspiration and direction from a football-version of Bagger Vance and help them become better than they have previously been.
Strong is at Texas in this current role because he was able to achieve success in this role in mass doses.
Strong will be at Texas again in 2017 if he’s able achieve a similar amount of success in 2016 in Austin.
No. 2 – The ghost of Josh Cochran serves as a cautionary tale along the offensive line ...
In retrospect, it’s easy to forget about the early promise exhibited by former Texas offensive lineman Josh Cochran because his career ended prematurely due to injuries.
The final product at the end of the 2013 season was a player who struggled to compete at the highest levels, but once upon a time Cochran was perhaps the best true freshman tackle Mack Brown used in his entire tenure in Austin. With a true freshman quarterback often leading the offense, playing a true freshman at left tackle is normally less than optimal, but as fate would have it that season, Cochran’s performance was one of the highlights of the entire campaign and the thought was that he would eventually emerge as an NFL Draft prospect.
Like a pair of returning offensive linemen on this year’s squad, Cochran was a Freshman All-America.
Like Cochran, the anticipation for sophomores Connor Williams and Patrick Vahe is that they will emerge as not only foundation blocks for an offensive line that truly needs to be a team strength in 2016, but that each player will take the steps needed this season to emerge as two of the best linemen in the Big 12. Honestly, the only way this offensive line is going to be a plus-unit is if these two youngsters take them there.
When you look at each player’s performance chart as created by Orangebloods football analyst Alex Dunlap, you’ll see that “both players played at an above-average level on the whole, bordering (on-average) at a level near NFL UDFA-status for periods of the season as true freshmen.”
In order for this offense to play at a level that sends this team to 8-10 wins, Williams and Vahe (along with senior Kent Perkins) have to start living in the 80-range. It’s not an impossible request for this season, but it’s also not a given, either. At the end of the day, both players are still very young in their maturation and we should all be mindful of that. In a perfect world, the season wouldn’t hang in the balance of a couple of second-year players over-performing against what should have been the fair expectations for each upon their arrival.
However, we don’t live in a perfect world. We live in a world where the last drafted Texas offensive linemen was Tony Hills back in 2008. For those keeping score, he arrived in the Class of 2004 and the Longhorns are currently holding Junior Days for kids set to graduate high school in 2017, which means they were barely alive the last time Texas had an offensive line worth remembering fondly.
Fair or not fair, Texas needs this young pair to progress quickly and emphatically. In this bigger conversation taking place about players that need to take steps forward, Williams and Vahe are at the top of the list.
History shows that it won’t be easy, but if it takes place, the entire offense will improve at every level as a byproduct.
You want to know what to look for this spring and in the off-season?
It doesn’t get much bigger or important than the development of these two freshman all-Americans.
No. 3- FREE MALIK!!!!!...
If sophomore linebacker Malik Jefferson has his way, he’ll be the Von Miller of the Texas defense in 2016, a player that can be used all over the field in a variety of ways, but always at his best moving forward in hard-charging attack mode.
The skill level and versatility are available in a way that hasn’t really existed since Derrick Johnson departed Austin back in 2004.
Just like the rest of us, the coaches would love to turn Jefferson loose in a way that makes him the Big 12’s most dynamic defender, but they also like it when a play that is supposed to go for three yards goes for exactly that and not 60. A year ago, Jefferson was forced into a more rigid middle linebacker role because the coaches had few other choices that made as much sense as their youngster from Mesquite.
In order for Jefferson to be turned loose on the level everyone wants, it’s up to the linebackers around him to give the coaches the freedom to use him as something other than a safety blanket between the tackles.
All things being equal, one of the best things that could happen to this team involves sophomores Anthony Wheeler and Breckyn Hager performing at a level at the Mike linebacker that the coaches can trust moving Jefferson to other areas of the field. Make no mistake about it, Jefferson is going to play a lot of middle linebacker this season, especially when you consider that the team’s nickel defense is essentially its base defense.
What you want to have with this linebacker group is options and with a unit that should feature Jefferson, a healthy Edwin Freeman, Wheeler, Hager, Cameron Townsend and even senior Tim Cole before the talented freshmen arrive in August, a healthy dose of options would seem to be quite possible.
Every time one of Jefferson’s mates at linebacker makes a little bit of progress, it has a chance to make Jefferson’s value grow in the process.
No. 4- Projecting the pre-season 2016 All-Big 12 team ...
If we do nothing but use the 2015 post-season all-Big 12 teams as a basis for building the optimal all-Big 12 team going into August, here’s how the first-team would look.
Offense
QB: Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma/Sr.)
RB: Samaje Perine (Oklahoma/Sr.)
RB: Shock Linwood (Baylor/Sr.)
WR: K.D. Cannon (Baylor/Jr.)
WR: James Washington (Oklahoma State/Jr.)
WR: Allen Lazard (Iowa State/Jr.)
TE: Blake Jarwin (Oklahoma State/Sr.)
OL: Kyle Fuller (Baylor/Sr.)
OL; Orlando Brown (Oklahoma/So.)
OL: Tyler Orlosky (West Virginia/Sr.)
OL: Connor Williams (Texas/So.)
OL: Patrick Vahe (Texas/So.)
Defense
DL: Josh Carraway (TCU/Jr.)
DL: Charles Walker (Oklahoma/Jr.)
DL: Noble Nwachukwu (West Virginia/Sr.)
DL: Demond Tucker (Iowa State/Sr.)
LB: Jordan Evans (Oklahoma/Sr.)
LB: Elijah Lee (Kansas State/Jr.)
LB: Malik Jefferson (Texas/So.)
DB: Fish Smithson (Kansas/Sr.)
DB: Ahmad Thomas (Oklahoma/Sr.)
DB: Jordan Thomas (Oklahoma/Jr.)
DB: Jordan Sterns (Oklahoma State/Sr.)
Special Teams
KR: KaVonte Turpin (TCU/So.)
PK: Josh Lammert (West Virginia/Sr.)
P: Austin Seibert (Oklahoma/So.)
No. 5 – Shaka Smart is playing with house money this week ...
In most seasons, there’s a little bit of anxiety heading into the conference tournament, as you’re either trying to get into the NCAA Tournament or improve your seeding, but the Texas Longhorns can play free and easy this week in Kansas City.
Not only are the Longhorns a lock to make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team, but their resume almost certainly has them locked into some sort of No. 4, No. 5 or No. 6 seed when announcements are made next. As things currently stand, the Longhorns project as a No. 5 or No. 6 seed.
Therefore, you can probably look at the upcoming Big 12 Tournament like this:
Lose to Baylor in the quarterfinals, earn a No. 6 seed.
Beat Baylor in the quarterfinals, earn a No. 5 seed.
Win the entire tournament, earn a No. 4 seed.
It’s hard to see the Longhorns earning a No. 4 seed at this point without winning it all, so if Texas beats Baylor at 11:30 a.m. on Thursday morning, you’d have to think a No. 5 seed is within its grasp and very little seeding upside will exist by winning its semi-final game.
Hell, given the fact that the difference between three-seeds and six seeds is so minimal in this year of college basketball, there’s just not a lot of reason for this tournament to be used in any other way other than a tune-up of sorts before the games really count next week.
p.s. You just know CBS is itching to put Texas and Texas A&M in the same side of a bracket for a second-round date if at all possible.
No. 6 – On the wrong end up the broomstick ...
There are two things I think about the Texas baseball team right now.
1. A 5-7 record is bad, a 4-7 record at home is worse and being swept in a four-game set this weekend for the first time in school history is beyond brutal.
2. The feelings that folks are feeling tonight after the team blew a 7-0 lead to cap off the four-game is sweep is the exact feeling folks can’t have about the football team at any point this season.
No. 7 – Scattershooting on the Longhorns ...
… In case you missed it, the nation’s No. 1 linebacker and No. 7 overall prospect Dylan Moses (Bradenton, Florida) spoke to Rivals this weekend about his top five and the Longhorns made the cut. I’m telling you, this kid loves him some Charlie Strong. If Texas can get to nine wins and grab some real momentum, this kid could easily be a Longhorn in February.
… The state’s top 2017 running back J.K. Dobbins (LaGrange) committed to Ohio State over the weekend, but one of the thing Charlie Strong’s style of recruiting has created is a no-worry policy when it comes to other schools picking up commitments. I’m not even sure it’s rational to not worry at all, but Charlie’s recruiting methods have people wearing sandals to the beach when it comes to this stuff.
… Prince Ibeh earning Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year honors makes me smile. Good for him.
… I can’t say I’m a fan of Friday night basketball … at all.
… Here comes Baylor once again for the Texas women’s basketball team after both teams cruised to the Big 12 Final. After what happened on Monday night, I’m not sure a rematch so soon if a good thing for the Longhorns.
No. 8 – Buy or sell …
(As always, these are questions submitted by Orangebloods subscribers)
BUY or SELL: This is Augie's last year at Texas?
(Buy) I love me some Augie, but it might be time for a change. Part of me doesn’t want to give into the moment, which includes a small sample-size in 2016, but it just feels like something is missing.
BUY or SELL: Either Poona Ford or Paul Boyette becomes first team all Big 12?
(Sell) Both are solid players, but I have a hard time believing that one of them develops into a top-two player at his position within the conference.
BUY or SELL: Pre-season optimism for Texas is now justified for the first time since 2009 with the recruiting classes, maturity of the freshmen and new coaching hires in the off-season.
(Buy) That being said, you better be realistic with your optimism. This program isn’t at the Leo walking into a Victoria’s Supermodel Show just yet.
BUY or SELL: Gilbert will have a well-oiled, balanced machine on offense by Sept 3?
(Sell) I don’t even know if this team has a quarterback it can depend on by that date. See the question above this one.
BUY or SELL: We have a QB selected after spring?
(Sell) The only way that happens is if someone almost instantly displays a huge gap of ability from the rest of the field and that would shock me at this point.
BUY or SELL: John Burt emerges as a top-5 receiver in the Big 12 in yards and TDs?
(Buy) Choo-choo. The Burt Fan Club Express is taking off!
BUY or SELL: Texas offense goes from 25 points per game in 2015 to 38+ points per game in 2016?
(Sell) I’ll meet you in the middle.
BUY or SELL: No one on the current Texas roster, including incoming freshmen, ever rushes for 1,000 yards in a single season in their career at Texas?
(Sell) If D'Onta Foreman stays healthy this season, he’s going to get there.
BUY or SELL: Sterlin Gilbert is the reason Texas will win those close games (3 in 2015) and end with at least 8 wins in 2016 keeping Charlie Strong's job?
(Sell) He’s done nothing to earn all the benefit of the doubt and acclaim should this team get to eight wins.
BUY or SELL: J.K. Dobbins will not end up at Ohio State and this just kicks off the drama that is recruiting for 2017?
(Buy) And we’re off!
No. 9 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
… Oh, to be a fly on the wall near Dana White early Sunday morning. His golden girl’s mega-rematch is gone and his golden boy’s rep was broken by Nate Diaz, of all people. That has to be a financial hit in the 10 figures.
… I’m not even going to lie, I was disappointed Conor McGregor lost to Diaz. That felt like watching Ric Flair losing to Repo Man.
… The under-card on UFC196 was absolutely awful. Be better, Dana.
… No way the Lakers beat the Warriors on Sunday. That didn’t happen.
… Get ready for Peyton Manning to be on your television calling football games for the next two decades. Bye-bye, Phil Simms.
… Am I the only one that worries that Ohio State’s Joey Bosa is more Shante Carver than Charles Haley as a rusher off the edge?
… I’m on my way as an MLS fan, as I spent about seven hours on Sunday watching opening day in the league. A few thoughts …
a. I enjoyed watching FC Dallas on Sunday. Consider this team the early favorite for my affections. I do like me some Mauro Diaz on first impressions.
b. Oh, Houston? That was a harsh way to lose three points.
c. Sebastian Giovinco is like the Mighty Mouse of pro soccer. He’s a hell of a lot of fun to watch.
d. I was expecting a little more from Seattle, even if it did play a man down for a lot of the match.
… Scattershooting on the British Premier League weekend.
a. Leicester City is going to do it!
b. Did Tottenham pull an Arsenal or did Arsenal pull a Tottenham on Saturday?
c. I’m not quite sure I believe how Liverpool pulled out the three points at Crystal Palace on Sunday, but I’ll take it, say thanks and never look back. Thank you soccer gods.
d. I’d say Riyad Mahrez is about three weeks away from wrapping up Player of the Year honors.
e. Good grief, Everton … really? Really?
No. 10 - And finally...
Just another day in the life of the Ketchum twins.
Will Armanti Foreman buy into the new lease on life that the presence of Charlie Williams provides because when he’s motivated and focused, he becomes one of the most dangerous receivers in the entire Big 12?
Can a young guy like safety DeShon Elliott develop enough that he pushes someone out of a job at safety or will upperclassman Jason Hall tap into just enough of his remaining upside as a player that he can hold off the young pack of wolves fiercely chasing him?
Is Malik Jefferson ready to be Malik Jefferson?
There are a number of truths about the roster with which Charlie Strong and his staff will work over the course of the next nine months and the fact that they are all twisted together speaks to both the challenges and possibilities of this season.
Truth No. 1
This is the best and most talented roster Charlie Strong has had to work with in his three seasons as coach in Austin. Three out of every four players on the roster are guys he personally recruited, which means he’s not trying to cook many meals without his own hand-picked groceries.
In particular, the class of 2015 potentially looms as the class that is remembered for changing the bar of success around these parts the way Mack Brown’s groups from 1999 and 2002 are remembered all these years later.
Truth No. 2
There’s not a single star on this team. Don’t get me wrong, there are a number of guys who possess star upside, but not one projected starter on either side of the ball earned first- or second-team all-Big 12 honors a year ago. While a player like Malik Jefferson earned a host of freshman honors, he wasn’t regarded as one of the top six players at his position in the conference.
To give you some perspective, Kansas State sophomore linebacker Elijah Lee, a player I only sort of remember from last season, was named as a second-team all-Big 12 linebacker ahead of Jefferson.
Truth No. 3
With few absolute known and proven top-shelf players, almost every player (and coach for that matter) in the program is at some important crossroads in his career.
In a lot of important cases, you’ve got really good players looking to take the step towards becoming great players. Guys like Jefferson, Holton Hill, D’Onta Foreman and Connor Williams have proven they can play at this level, but can they emerge as top-level college players, and if so, how quickly does it happen?
For guys like DeShon Elliott, Jerrod Heard, Lorenzo Joe and Anthony Wheeler, the crossroad deals with the ability to go from a player talked about for his talent to being one talked about because of consistent play. Can the players in this group emerge as starters and push others out of the line-up?
Meanwhile, there’s another group of crossroads players that includes the likes of Jason Hall, Tyrone Swoopes, Jacorey Warrick and Dylan Haines. Is this it? Is there anything left in any of these players that hasn’t already kept the line-up feeling as strong as it needs to be?
Up and down the entire depth chart, these personal crossroads moments are taking place within the program and in order for Strong’s team to go from taking Bob Wiley-like baby steps to a George Jefferson-like move to the East side, there has to be a very high volume of success in these personal crossroads.
Of course, the good news for Texas is that pushing these players over the jump in these personal crossroads is supposed to be the thing at which Strong is the best as a coach. Knock him for clock management or his choice in assistant coaches, but his work with players and ability to maximize their talent levels is well-chronicled. “Three-star Charlie” earned his nickname at Louisville because he could take overlooked players and turn them into NFL-level prospects capable of thriving at the collegiate level.
In a weird way, you can make the case that Charlie has everyone right where he wants them.
Right?
For the next six months or so, it becomes Charlie Time, a window of opportunity that exists for each player to take the wisdom, inspiration and direction from a football-version of Bagger Vance and help them become better than they have previously been.
Strong is at Texas in this current role because he was able to achieve success in this role in mass doses.
Strong will be at Texas again in 2017 if he’s able achieve a similar amount of success in 2016 in Austin.
No. 2 – The ghost of Josh Cochran serves as a cautionary tale along the offensive line ...
In retrospect, it’s easy to forget about the early promise exhibited by former Texas offensive lineman Josh Cochran because his career ended prematurely due to injuries.
The final product at the end of the 2013 season was a player who struggled to compete at the highest levels, but once upon a time Cochran was perhaps the best true freshman tackle Mack Brown used in his entire tenure in Austin. With a true freshman quarterback often leading the offense, playing a true freshman at left tackle is normally less than optimal, but as fate would have it that season, Cochran’s performance was one of the highlights of the entire campaign and the thought was that he would eventually emerge as an NFL Draft prospect.
Like a pair of returning offensive linemen on this year’s squad, Cochran was a Freshman All-America.
Like Cochran, the anticipation for sophomores Connor Williams and Patrick Vahe is that they will emerge as not only foundation blocks for an offensive line that truly needs to be a team strength in 2016, but that each player will take the steps needed this season to emerge as two of the best linemen in the Big 12. Honestly, the only way this offensive line is going to be a plus-unit is if these two youngsters take them there.
When you look at each player’s performance chart as created by Orangebloods football analyst Alex Dunlap, you’ll see that “both players played at an above-average level on the whole, bordering (on-average) at a level near NFL UDFA-status for periods of the season as true freshmen.”
In order for this offense to play at a level that sends this team to 8-10 wins, Williams and Vahe (along with senior Kent Perkins) have to start living in the 80-range. It’s not an impossible request for this season, but it’s also not a given, either. At the end of the day, both players are still very young in their maturation and we should all be mindful of that. In a perfect world, the season wouldn’t hang in the balance of a couple of second-year players over-performing against what should have been the fair expectations for each upon their arrival.
However, we don’t live in a perfect world. We live in a world where the last drafted Texas offensive linemen was Tony Hills back in 2008. For those keeping score, he arrived in the Class of 2004 and the Longhorns are currently holding Junior Days for kids set to graduate high school in 2017, which means they were barely alive the last time Texas had an offensive line worth remembering fondly.
Fair or not fair, Texas needs this young pair to progress quickly and emphatically. In this bigger conversation taking place about players that need to take steps forward, Williams and Vahe are at the top of the list.
History shows that it won’t be easy, but if it takes place, the entire offense will improve at every level as a byproduct.
You want to know what to look for this spring and in the off-season?
It doesn’t get much bigger or important than the development of these two freshman all-Americans.
No. 3- FREE MALIK!!!!!...
If sophomore linebacker Malik Jefferson has his way, he’ll be the Von Miller of the Texas defense in 2016, a player that can be used all over the field in a variety of ways, but always at his best moving forward in hard-charging attack mode.
The skill level and versatility are available in a way that hasn’t really existed since Derrick Johnson departed Austin back in 2004.
Just like the rest of us, the coaches would love to turn Jefferson loose in a way that makes him the Big 12’s most dynamic defender, but they also like it when a play that is supposed to go for three yards goes for exactly that and not 60. A year ago, Jefferson was forced into a more rigid middle linebacker role because the coaches had few other choices that made as much sense as their youngster from Mesquite.
In order for Jefferson to be turned loose on the level everyone wants, it’s up to the linebackers around him to give the coaches the freedom to use him as something other than a safety blanket between the tackles.
All things being equal, one of the best things that could happen to this team involves sophomores Anthony Wheeler and Breckyn Hager performing at a level at the Mike linebacker that the coaches can trust moving Jefferson to other areas of the field. Make no mistake about it, Jefferson is going to play a lot of middle linebacker this season, especially when you consider that the team’s nickel defense is essentially its base defense.
What you want to have with this linebacker group is options and with a unit that should feature Jefferson, a healthy Edwin Freeman, Wheeler, Hager, Cameron Townsend and even senior Tim Cole before the talented freshmen arrive in August, a healthy dose of options would seem to be quite possible.
Every time one of Jefferson’s mates at linebacker makes a little bit of progress, it has a chance to make Jefferson’s value grow in the process.
No. 4- Projecting the pre-season 2016 All-Big 12 team ...
If we do nothing but use the 2015 post-season all-Big 12 teams as a basis for building the optimal all-Big 12 team going into August, here’s how the first-team would look.
Offense
QB: Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma/Sr.)
RB: Samaje Perine (Oklahoma/Sr.)
RB: Shock Linwood (Baylor/Sr.)
WR: K.D. Cannon (Baylor/Jr.)
WR: James Washington (Oklahoma State/Jr.)
WR: Allen Lazard (Iowa State/Jr.)
TE: Blake Jarwin (Oklahoma State/Sr.)
OL: Kyle Fuller (Baylor/Sr.)
OL; Orlando Brown (Oklahoma/So.)
OL: Tyler Orlosky (West Virginia/Sr.)
OL: Connor Williams (Texas/So.)
OL: Patrick Vahe (Texas/So.)
Defense
DL: Josh Carraway (TCU/Jr.)
DL: Charles Walker (Oklahoma/Jr.)
DL: Noble Nwachukwu (West Virginia/Sr.)
DL: Demond Tucker (Iowa State/Sr.)
LB: Jordan Evans (Oklahoma/Sr.)
LB: Elijah Lee (Kansas State/Jr.)
LB: Malik Jefferson (Texas/So.)
DB: Fish Smithson (Kansas/Sr.)
DB: Ahmad Thomas (Oklahoma/Sr.)
DB: Jordan Thomas (Oklahoma/Jr.)
DB: Jordan Sterns (Oklahoma State/Sr.)
Special Teams
KR: KaVonte Turpin (TCU/So.)
PK: Josh Lammert (West Virginia/Sr.)
P: Austin Seibert (Oklahoma/So.)
No. 5 – Shaka Smart is playing with house money this week ...
In most seasons, there’s a little bit of anxiety heading into the conference tournament, as you’re either trying to get into the NCAA Tournament or improve your seeding, but the Texas Longhorns can play free and easy this week in Kansas City.
Not only are the Longhorns a lock to make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team, but their resume almost certainly has them locked into some sort of No. 4, No. 5 or No. 6 seed when announcements are made next. As things currently stand, the Longhorns project as a No. 5 or No. 6 seed.
Therefore, you can probably look at the upcoming Big 12 Tournament like this:
Lose to Baylor in the quarterfinals, earn a No. 6 seed.
Beat Baylor in the quarterfinals, earn a No. 5 seed.
Win the entire tournament, earn a No. 4 seed.
It’s hard to see the Longhorns earning a No. 4 seed at this point without winning it all, so if Texas beats Baylor at 11:30 a.m. on Thursday morning, you’d have to think a No. 5 seed is within its grasp and very little seeding upside will exist by winning its semi-final game.
Hell, given the fact that the difference between three-seeds and six seeds is so minimal in this year of college basketball, there’s just not a lot of reason for this tournament to be used in any other way other than a tune-up of sorts before the games really count next week.
p.s. You just know CBS is itching to put Texas and Texas A&M in the same side of a bracket for a second-round date if at all possible.
No. 6 – On the wrong end up the broomstick ...
There are two things I think about the Texas baseball team right now.
1. A 5-7 record is bad, a 4-7 record at home is worse and being swept in a four-game set this weekend for the first time in school history is beyond brutal.
2. The feelings that folks are feeling tonight after the team blew a 7-0 lead to cap off the four-game is sweep is the exact feeling folks can’t have about the football team at any point this season.
No. 7 – Scattershooting on the Longhorns ...
… In case you missed it, the nation’s No. 1 linebacker and No. 7 overall prospect Dylan Moses (Bradenton, Florida) spoke to Rivals this weekend about his top five and the Longhorns made the cut. I’m telling you, this kid loves him some Charlie Strong. If Texas can get to nine wins and grab some real momentum, this kid could easily be a Longhorn in February.
… The state’s top 2017 running back J.K. Dobbins (LaGrange) committed to Ohio State over the weekend, but one of the thing Charlie Strong’s style of recruiting has created is a no-worry policy when it comes to other schools picking up commitments. I’m not even sure it’s rational to not worry at all, but Charlie’s recruiting methods have people wearing sandals to the beach when it comes to this stuff.
… Prince Ibeh earning Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year honors makes me smile. Good for him.
… I can’t say I’m a fan of Friday night basketball … at all.
… Here comes Baylor once again for the Texas women’s basketball team after both teams cruised to the Big 12 Final. After what happened on Monday night, I’m not sure a rematch so soon if a good thing for the Longhorns.
No. 8 – Buy or sell …
(As always, these are questions submitted by Orangebloods subscribers)
BUY or SELL: This is Augie's last year at Texas?
(Buy) I love me some Augie, but it might be time for a change. Part of me doesn’t want to give into the moment, which includes a small sample-size in 2016, but it just feels like something is missing.
BUY or SELL: Either Poona Ford or Paul Boyette becomes first team all Big 12?
(Sell) Both are solid players, but I have a hard time believing that one of them develops into a top-two player at his position within the conference.
BUY or SELL: Pre-season optimism for Texas is now justified for the first time since 2009 with the recruiting classes, maturity of the freshmen and new coaching hires in the off-season.
(Buy) That being said, you better be realistic with your optimism. This program isn’t at the Leo walking into a Victoria’s Supermodel Show just yet.
BUY or SELL: Gilbert will have a well-oiled, balanced machine on offense by Sept 3?
(Sell) I don’t even know if this team has a quarterback it can depend on by that date. See the question above this one.
BUY or SELL: We have a QB selected after spring?
(Sell) The only way that happens is if someone almost instantly displays a huge gap of ability from the rest of the field and that would shock me at this point.
BUY or SELL: John Burt emerges as a top-5 receiver in the Big 12 in yards and TDs?
(Buy) Choo-choo. The Burt Fan Club Express is taking off!
BUY or SELL: Texas offense goes from 25 points per game in 2015 to 38+ points per game in 2016?
(Sell) I’ll meet you in the middle.
BUY or SELL: No one on the current Texas roster, including incoming freshmen, ever rushes for 1,000 yards in a single season in their career at Texas?
(Sell) If D'Onta Foreman stays healthy this season, he’s going to get there.
BUY or SELL: Sterlin Gilbert is the reason Texas will win those close games (3 in 2015) and end with at least 8 wins in 2016 keeping Charlie Strong's job?
(Sell) He’s done nothing to earn all the benefit of the doubt and acclaim should this team get to eight wins.
BUY or SELL: J.K. Dobbins will not end up at Ohio State and this just kicks off the drama that is recruiting for 2017?
(Buy) And we’re off!
No. 9 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
… Oh, to be a fly on the wall near Dana White early Sunday morning. His golden girl’s mega-rematch is gone and his golden boy’s rep was broken by Nate Diaz, of all people. That has to be a financial hit in the 10 figures.
… I’m not even going to lie, I was disappointed Conor McGregor lost to Diaz. That felt like watching Ric Flair losing to Repo Man.
… The under-card on UFC196 was absolutely awful. Be better, Dana.
… No way the Lakers beat the Warriors on Sunday. That didn’t happen.
… Get ready for Peyton Manning to be on your television calling football games for the next two decades. Bye-bye, Phil Simms.
… Am I the only one that worries that Ohio State’s Joey Bosa is more Shante Carver than Charles Haley as a rusher off the edge?
… I’m on my way as an MLS fan, as I spent about seven hours on Sunday watching opening day in the league. A few thoughts …
a. I enjoyed watching FC Dallas on Sunday. Consider this team the early favorite for my affections. I do like me some Mauro Diaz on first impressions.
b. Oh, Houston? That was a harsh way to lose three points.
c. Sebastian Giovinco is like the Mighty Mouse of pro soccer. He’s a hell of a lot of fun to watch.
d. I was expecting a little more from Seattle, even if it did play a man down for a lot of the match.
… Scattershooting on the British Premier League weekend.
a. Leicester City is going to do it!
b. Did Tottenham pull an Arsenal or did Arsenal pull a Tottenham on Saturday?
c. I’m not quite sure I believe how Liverpool pulled out the three points at Crystal Palace on Sunday, but I’ll take it, say thanks and never look back. Thank you soccer gods.
d. I’d say Riyad Mahrez is about three weeks away from wrapping up Player of the Year honors.
e. Good grief, Everton … really? Really?
No. 10 - And finally...
Just another day in the life of the Ketchum twins.
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