Ok, enough pussyfooting around. It's time to step out onto a ledge and make some predictions.
For the better part of the last nine months, I've hemmed and hawed my way through the off-season, straddling the eight-win mark and unsure as to whether or not I should dare leap into the nine-win territory that so many glass-is-half-full folks have already dared to do. I've wanted to wait and get a read on this team through the August camp and now that it's game week, let's let it all hang out.
Prediction time.
1. The USC game is going to be a major moment in Shane Buechele's career.
The feeling within the program with its starting quarterback is that it has a player it can win with, but there are still questions about how he will respond when the kitchen starts to get a little hot. It's hard not to envision the Texas offense impressing on the stat sheet in the first two games of the season, but that week three game in Los Angeles is the one where we're really going to learn where Buechele is in his development as a college football player. This is his football team as the season begins, but Tom Herman is not going to wait on any of these quarterbacks, which means that if Buechele blinks early in the season, I believe we're going to see true freshman Sam Ehlinger get a chance to make this his team. It's up to Buechele to not blink in Los Angeles and if he pulls it off, I have to believe Herman's confidence and trust will be in the starting to be earned phase.
2. Sam Ehlinger will start a game this season.
It's just a hunch.
3. The running back position is going to be a revolving door all season.
There's enough talent in the running back room to win a lot of games in a lot of ways, but it seems like every single guy under Stan Drayton's watch is living play to play. I can see any number of backs on this team being stars for a day, but I don't see any that I believe will be stars for a season. This will be a week to week position.
4. Collin Johnson will have a very, very good, but not quite an all-world season.
I'm thinking 70 receptions for 1,140 yards and 10 touchdowns. The all-world monster season comes in 2018.
5. The right tackle position is going to frustrate everyone all season.
There just aren't any great answers right now. Cross your fingers and hope that Denzel Okafor can grow up on the fly.
6. Texas loses to USC by 10 points in September, but beats Oklahoma by 10 points in October.
My instincts tell me that this Longhorns team won't be quite ready for primetime in week three, but it will be by the time it gets to Dallas. This is going to be a Texas team that plays its best football down the stretch.
7. Malik Jefferson is an all-Big 12 selection as a junior, but doesn't quite reach all-American level production in what could be his last season in Austin.
This guy is a better football player than he was a year ago and he keeps making steady forward progress, but I'm not sure he's ready to be great yet. It hasn't happened yet.
8. Anthony Wheeler turns out to be the best player on the team that no one was talking about a week before the start of the first game.
I know ... I know ... I know ... I was on the "It's time to give Edwin Freeman some damn respect!" bandwagon a few weeks ago, but in the time that has passed, I've been told time and time again that Wheeler is the guy that will absolutely hold it down for the Longhorns in the middle of the field. Very quietly, he's emerged as a critical player for this team.
9. P.J. Locke has an all-American season.
Tom Herman will call Locke's parents on at least a half-dozen occasions this season to let them know that he's so very happy they got busy and created him when they did.
10. Texas will win nine games.
Even if they lose three of four out of USC, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and TCU, it seems like it comes down to whether you think this team beats West Virginia on the road in late November. I believe the start to the season will be good enough that...
11. Anthony Cook becomes a Longhorn.
So it is said, so let it be written.
No. 2 – A little birdie ...
a. The quarterback play was less than inspiring in the final week or so of camp. The efficiency wasn't where it needed to be and there were too many unforced errors. Neither Shane Buechele nor Sam Ehlinger really seized the moment that was allowed due to each other's inconsistency.
b. Going into the season, Buechele has the respect and admiration of his teammates. It hasn't completely translated to success on the field yet going into the season, but this team is all-in on believing in its sophomore quarterback.
c. John Burt started the week with the first-team and ended the week on the second-team. The competition at wide receiver never stops.
d. In the event that anyone was wondering, Connor Williams and Jake McMillon are a cut above everyone else on the offensive line. McMillon might not be on the level of Williams, but he's ahead of the entire rest of the pack.
e. Tristan Nickelson had a frustrating end of camp.
f. Davante Davis has not had the camp he needed to have to push for a prominent role.
g. Naashon Hughes has been rock solid at a minimum every day since camp started. He has not opened the door for Jeffrey McCulloch.
No. 3 – Texas Football Tweet of the Weekend ...
In case anyone missed it over the weekend, these are your captains, folks.
No. 4 – A story to think about with the quarterbacks ...
I've told this story countless times, but I thought in the wake of me expressing caution with the quarterback hyperbole going into the season, it was a good time to re-tell it.
Twenty-three years ago, I was working as an student assistant in the Texas SID office and answering the main phone in the office when John Mackovic walked into the office two days before the Oklahoma game.
The talk all week had been about redshirt freshman James Brown getting his first start in the Red River Classic.
After making small-talk with me for a few moments, Mackovic walked into another side of the office, where he was asked by someone in the SID office how Brown had looked in practice that week.
Mackovic replied that he had no idea what to expect because Brown might have been the worst practice quarterback he'd ever worked with.
Two days later, the legend of James Brown began and nothing that happened in that previous week of practice mattered even a little.
No. 5 – Buy or Sell …
BUY or SELL: First Herman complaint by an OB poster is on or before page 5 of the official Maryland Gameday thread?
(Buy) You know Orangebloods all too well.
BUY or SELL: Shane Buechele throws for 3+ TDs and 250+ yards against Maryland?
(Buy) I think he comes out looking quite sterling in the first two weeks of the season. The third game is the question.
BUY or SELL: The storm gets back over the Gulf by tomorrow night, the rain continues in Houston and east Texas, and all Austin hotel rooms are filled with refugees. Weather is predicted in Austin to include rain, squalls and possible lightning. The UT powers-to-be make the decision to cancel the game on Thursday.
(Sell) I think a cancellation is in the back of everyone's mind, but at this point I think the game will be played.
BUY or SELL: Tim Beck is a better play-caller in 2017 than Sterlin Gilbert was in 2016?
(Buy) Tim Beck is better than Sterlin Gilbert, at least at this side by side point in both of their careers.
BUY or SELL: Texas makes a positive wow play on special teams Saturday?
(Buy) The quickest way for this team to be much better than a season ago is in this third phase of the game and I'm expecting at least one game-one set of fireworks. At least one.
No. 6 – Stop what you're doing and watch this...
This is such a touching, personal moment that I almost feel like I'm intruding, but I'd hug Marquise Goodwin if I could.
No. 7 – Floyd Mayweather's signature moment...
So many thoughts running through my mind in the aftermath of Mayweather/McGregor on Saturday night, but the primary one might be whether the surreal nature of this particular proceeding allowed for one of boxing's all-time greatest champions to create a standout moment in what has been a dominant, but boring career.
Whatever Saturday night was, it sure as hell wasn't boring. The fact that the night ended with a surging Mayweather knocking out McGregor (in a premature stoppage by the ref, but whatever) in what will be his final fight created optics that he's aimed for over the last decade. Out of his 50 pro fights, this is going to be the one we remember over all the rest.
It's kind of hard to process what that means, but it seems real.
While I'm scattershooting on the fight ...
a. In his first pro boxing fight, McGregor went 10 rounds with the greatest boxer of an entire generation. While he was about to go down, he never actually hit the canvass. In fact, I had him down by a round going into the 10th (I gave him the first three rounds). He landed more punches in fewer rounds than Manny Pacquiao did and landed more punches per round than Canelo Alvarez. He proved to be a muse for Mayweather's most interesting fight. Call it a moral victory if you want, but McGregor was a winner on Saturday night.
b. McGregor had two big issues - stamina over 12 rounds and the fact that he hasn't yet figured out how to transfer his MMA power into boxing power.
c. Personally, I wasn't overly impressed with Mayweather, regardless of the rare finish. This isn't the same guy that dominated guys like Miguel Cotto and Alvarez. Rather than outclass him from the start, the gameplan was to wait for McGregor's legs to fail him. I'm not saying it's not smart, I'm saying it's not the most impressive set of optics. It's time to step away when it takes him 10 rounds to finish off a novice to the sport.
d. Things I missed in this fight: Jim Lampley, Roy Jones, Joe Rogan, a Buffer brother and Herb Dean/Big John McCarthy. I thought Showtime's coverage of the fight was garbage at every single turn outside of Paulie Malignaggi.
e. My favorite moment of the fight might have been when the referee lectured McGregor like an eight-year old in the middle of the ring.
No. 8 – Five more sports things ...
... I am completely unprepared for my upcoming fantasy football drafts.
... The Cowboys look like a team that is going to hug the .500 line all season long. I just don't think the personnel on defense is good enough.
... Dustin Johnson straight did the damn thing on the 18th hole and in sudden death against Jordan Spieth on Sunday. Props.
... EPL Weekend thoughts in a paragraph: Liverpool game me the warm and fuzzies on Sunday. The front three of Sadio Mane, Bobby Firmino and Mo Salah play some damn beautiful football. Extra-time has not been kind to the Spurs the last two weeks. Yikes. Mike Dean personally handed Man City two points on a platter. Man United continues to look like championship material.
... I just can't do the Little League World Series.
No. 9 – Game of Thrones Review: Season 7 (The Season Finale)...
Three predictions for tonight: The Wall comes down (duh). Dany and Jon get down. Sansa plays a role in Arya's death.
Ok, let's do this. Our final episode for the next 18 months or so.
*SPOILER ALERT!*
*SPOILER ALERT!*
*SPOILER ALERT!*
a. The Hound just has to poke the hornet's nest.
b. It's REUNION NIGHT!!!!
c. When you have dragons, you can make one hell of an entrance at parties.
d. LOL @ Euron. Dude just flat out bounced back to his islands. That might be the smartest ting anyone has ever done on this show.
e. Cersei Lannister did the right thing for the apparent right reason. Holy hell, I really didn't see that coming.
f. Wait, so Sansa went from punking Littlefinger to listening to his every word? That doesn't make sense.
g. That Theon/Jon scene was pretty powerful stuff.
h. The Theron redemption story continues on!
i. Chaos is a ladder... right up until Arya Stark cuts your throat.
j. So much for Cersei doing the right thing for the right reasons. That's our girl.
k. Well, I got one prediction right. Incest really is the worst of the problems the people in this show are dealing with. Let love be love.
l. That's not an Ice Dragon, that's Ice-Zilla!!!!!!
Oh, the wait until next season is going to be brutal.
*END OF SPOILER ALERT!*
*END OF SPOILER ALERT!*
*END OF SPOILER ALERT!*
No. 10 – And finally …
The state of Texas has been under attack all weekend at the hands of Mother Nature and there are so many lives that have been turned upside down. In this day and age of non-stop political battling, it has warmed my heart all weekend to see people go all out for their fellow man. It's a reminder that we're all on the same team.
God bless the state of Texas and all of its people.
We'll get through this together.
For the better part of the last nine months, I've hemmed and hawed my way through the off-season, straddling the eight-win mark and unsure as to whether or not I should dare leap into the nine-win territory that so many glass-is-half-full folks have already dared to do. I've wanted to wait and get a read on this team through the August camp and now that it's game week, let's let it all hang out.
Prediction time.
1. The USC game is going to be a major moment in Shane Buechele's career.
The feeling within the program with its starting quarterback is that it has a player it can win with, but there are still questions about how he will respond when the kitchen starts to get a little hot. It's hard not to envision the Texas offense impressing on the stat sheet in the first two games of the season, but that week three game in Los Angeles is the one where we're really going to learn where Buechele is in his development as a college football player. This is his football team as the season begins, but Tom Herman is not going to wait on any of these quarterbacks, which means that if Buechele blinks early in the season, I believe we're going to see true freshman Sam Ehlinger get a chance to make this his team. It's up to Buechele to not blink in Los Angeles and if he pulls it off, I have to believe Herman's confidence and trust will be in the starting to be earned phase.
2. Sam Ehlinger will start a game this season.
It's just a hunch.
3. The running back position is going to be a revolving door all season.
There's enough talent in the running back room to win a lot of games in a lot of ways, but it seems like every single guy under Stan Drayton's watch is living play to play. I can see any number of backs on this team being stars for a day, but I don't see any that I believe will be stars for a season. This will be a week to week position.
4. Collin Johnson will have a very, very good, but not quite an all-world season.
I'm thinking 70 receptions for 1,140 yards and 10 touchdowns. The all-world monster season comes in 2018.
5. The right tackle position is going to frustrate everyone all season.
There just aren't any great answers right now. Cross your fingers and hope that Denzel Okafor can grow up on the fly.
6. Texas loses to USC by 10 points in September, but beats Oklahoma by 10 points in October.
My instincts tell me that this Longhorns team won't be quite ready for primetime in week three, but it will be by the time it gets to Dallas. This is going to be a Texas team that plays its best football down the stretch.
7. Malik Jefferson is an all-Big 12 selection as a junior, but doesn't quite reach all-American level production in what could be his last season in Austin.
This guy is a better football player than he was a year ago and he keeps making steady forward progress, but I'm not sure he's ready to be great yet. It hasn't happened yet.
8. Anthony Wheeler turns out to be the best player on the team that no one was talking about a week before the start of the first game.
I know ... I know ... I know ... I was on the "It's time to give Edwin Freeman some damn respect!" bandwagon a few weeks ago, but in the time that has passed, I've been told time and time again that Wheeler is the guy that will absolutely hold it down for the Longhorns in the middle of the field. Very quietly, he's emerged as a critical player for this team.
9. P.J. Locke has an all-American season.
Tom Herman will call Locke's parents on at least a half-dozen occasions this season to let them know that he's so very happy they got busy and created him when they did.
10. Texas will win nine games.
Even if they lose three of four out of USC, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and TCU, it seems like it comes down to whether you think this team beats West Virginia on the road in late November. I believe the start to the season will be good enough that...
11. Anthony Cook becomes a Longhorn.
So it is said, so let it be written.
No. 2 – A little birdie ...
a. The quarterback play was less than inspiring in the final week or so of camp. The efficiency wasn't where it needed to be and there were too many unforced errors. Neither Shane Buechele nor Sam Ehlinger really seized the moment that was allowed due to each other's inconsistency.
b. Going into the season, Buechele has the respect and admiration of his teammates. It hasn't completely translated to success on the field yet going into the season, but this team is all-in on believing in its sophomore quarterback.
c. John Burt started the week with the first-team and ended the week on the second-team. The competition at wide receiver never stops.
d. In the event that anyone was wondering, Connor Williams and Jake McMillon are a cut above everyone else on the offensive line. McMillon might not be on the level of Williams, but he's ahead of the entire rest of the pack.
e. Tristan Nickelson had a frustrating end of camp.
f. Davante Davis has not had the camp he needed to have to push for a prominent role.
g. Naashon Hughes has been rock solid at a minimum every day since camp started. He has not opened the door for Jeffrey McCulloch.
No. 3 – Texas Football Tweet of the Weekend ...
In case anyone missed it over the weekend, these are your captains, folks.
No. 4 – A story to think about with the quarterbacks ...
I've told this story countless times, but I thought in the wake of me expressing caution with the quarterback hyperbole going into the season, it was a good time to re-tell it.
Twenty-three years ago, I was working as an student assistant in the Texas SID office and answering the main phone in the office when John Mackovic walked into the office two days before the Oklahoma game.
The talk all week had been about redshirt freshman James Brown getting his first start in the Red River Classic.
After making small-talk with me for a few moments, Mackovic walked into another side of the office, where he was asked by someone in the SID office how Brown had looked in practice that week.
Mackovic replied that he had no idea what to expect because Brown might have been the worst practice quarterback he'd ever worked with.
Two days later, the legend of James Brown began and nothing that happened in that previous week of practice mattered even a little.
No. 5 – Buy or Sell …
BUY or SELL: First Herman complaint by an OB poster is on or before page 5 of the official Maryland Gameday thread?
(Buy) You know Orangebloods all too well.
BUY or SELL: Shane Buechele throws for 3+ TDs and 250+ yards against Maryland?
(Buy) I think he comes out looking quite sterling in the first two weeks of the season. The third game is the question.
BUY or SELL: The storm gets back over the Gulf by tomorrow night, the rain continues in Houston and east Texas, and all Austin hotel rooms are filled with refugees. Weather is predicted in Austin to include rain, squalls and possible lightning. The UT powers-to-be make the decision to cancel the game on Thursday.
(Sell) I think a cancellation is in the back of everyone's mind, but at this point I think the game will be played.
BUY or SELL: Tim Beck is a better play-caller in 2017 than Sterlin Gilbert was in 2016?
(Buy) Tim Beck is better than Sterlin Gilbert, at least at this side by side point in both of their careers.
BUY or SELL: Texas makes a positive wow play on special teams Saturday?
(Buy) The quickest way for this team to be much better than a season ago is in this third phase of the game and I'm expecting at least one game-one set of fireworks. At least one.
No. 6 – Stop what you're doing and watch this...
This is such a touching, personal moment that I almost feel like I'm intruding, but I'd hug Marquise Goodwin if I could.
No. 7 – Floyd Mayweather's signature moment...
So many thoughts running through my mind in the aftermath of Mayweather/McGregor on Saturday night, but the primary one might be whether the surreal nature of this particular proceeding allowed for one of boxing's all-time greatest champions to create a standout moment in what has been a dominant, but boring career.
Whatever Saturday night was, it sure as hell wasn't boring. The fact that the night ended with a surging Mayweather knocking out McGregor (in a premature stoppage by the ref, but whatever) in what will be his final fight created optics that he's aimed for over the last decade. Out of his 50 pro fights, this is going to be the one we remember over all the rest.
It's kind of hard to process what that means, but it seems real.
While I'm scattershooting on the fight ...
a. In his first pro boxing fight, McGregor went 10 rounds with the greatest boxer of an entire generation. While he was about to go down, he never actually hit the canvass. In fact, I had him down by a round going into the 10th (I gave him the first three rounds). He landed more punches in fewer rounds than Manny Pacquiao did and landed more punches per round than Canelo Alvarez. He proved to be a muse for Mayweather's most interesting fight. Call it a moral victory if you want, but McGregor was a winner on Saturday night.
b. McGregor had two big issues - stamina over 12 rounds and the fact that he hasn't yet figured out how to transfer his MMA power into boxing power.
c. Personally, I wasn't overly impressed with Mayweather, regardless of the rare finish. This isn't the same guy that dominated guys like Miguel Cotto and Alvarez. Rather than outclass him from the start, the gameplan was to wait for McGregor's legs to fail him. I'm not saying it's not smart, I'm saying it's not the most impressive set of optics. It's time to step away when it takes him 10 rounds to finish off a novice to the sport.
d. Things I missed in this fight: Jim Lampley, Roy Jones, Joe Rogan, a Buffer brother and Herb Dean/Big John McCarthy. I thought Showtime's coverage of the fight was garbage at every single turn outside of Paulie Malignaggi.
e. My favorite moment of the fight might have been when the referee lectured McGregor like an eight-year old in the middle of the ring.
No. 8 – Five more sports things ...
... I am completely unprepared for my upcoming fantasy football drafts.
... The Cowboys look like a team that is going to hug the .500 line all season long. I just don't think the personnel on defense is good enough.
... Dustin Johnson straight did the damn thing on the 18th hole and in sudden death against Jordan Spieth on Sunday. Props.
... EPL Weekend thoughts in a paragraph: Liverpool game me the warm and fuzzies on Sunday. The front three of Sadio Mane, Bobby Firmino and Mo Salah play some damn beautiful football. Extra-time has not been kind to the Spurs the last two weeks. Yikes. Mike Dean personally handed Man City two points on a platter. Man United continues to look like championship material.
... I just can't do the Little League World Series.
No. 9 – Game of Thrones Review: Season 7 (The Season Finale)...
Three predictions for tonight: The Wall comes down (duh). Dany and Jon get down. Sansa plays a role in Arya's death.
Ok, let's do this. Our final episode for the next 18 months or so.
*SPOILER ALERT!*
*SPOILER ALERT!*
*SPOILER ALERT!*
a. The Hound just has to poke the hornet's nest.
b. It's REUNION NIGHT!!!!
c. When you have dragons, you can make one hell of an entrance at parties.
d. LOL @ Euron. Dude just flat out bounced back to his islands. That might be the smartest ting anyone has ever done on this show.
e. Cersei Lannister did the right thing for the apparent right reason. Holy hell, I really didn't see that coming.
f. Wait, so Sansa went from punking Littlefinger to listening to his every word? That doesn't make sense.
g. That Theon/Jon scene was pretty powerful stuff.
h. The Theron redemption story continues on!
i. Chaos is a ladder... right up until Arya Stark cuts your throat.
j. So much for Cersei doing the right thing for the right reasons. That's our girl.
k. Well, I got one prediction right. Incest really is the worst of the problems the people in this show are dealing with. Let love be love.
l. That's not an Ice Dragon, that's Ice-Zilla!!!!!!
Oh, the wait until next season is going to be brutal.
*END OF SPOILER ALERT!*
*END OF SPOILER ALERT!*
*END OF SPOILER ALERT!*
No. 10 – And finally …
The state of Texas has been under attack all weekend at the hands of Mother Nature and there are so many lives that have been turned upside down. In this day and age of non-stop political battling, it has warmed my heart all weekend to see people go all out for their fellow man. It's a reminder that we're all on the same team.
God bless the state of Texas and all of its people.
We'll get through this together.
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