Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Kudos to PK, but what about 2023?)
- Thread starter Ketchum
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But defense was not the problem in either of the losses. We scored one offensive TD combined in those two games.
After Angilau & Neyor went down, I expected a 7-5 or 8-4 season. So I'd be satisfied with a Top 20 season. That said, nothing went as I expected. I thought the OL would be worse, QB play better, WRs a strength of the team, and the defense middling. I pretty much predicted everything wrong, and yet here we are, right in line with my season W/L expectations. LOL.
In today’s football with the Portal and NIL, is it in the best interest of the team to covet guys that what to be on the team and invest in the team? I see the portal and nil as a way to help divide players on the team. In a rebuild does that factor into trying to beg kids to stay or do you want kids that are bought in? Just food for thought. I know you try and keep your best players but sometimes addition by subtraction is a better fit.
You're only satisfied with 8-4 because the standards dropped so badly the year before.
The January 2021 version of yourself would not be satisfied with 8-4 in year two.
I don't think many people on this board are really giving a lot of thought to Worthy's frustrations and what they might mean to his future.
Maybe people just can't.
Ok, maybe serenading Pete Kwiatkowski with a "Coming to America" inspired song about his freshly-minted royalty is a bit much for now.
Maybe an "attaboy" is enough ... but, maybe not.
With one regular-season game to go for the 2022 Texas Longhorns, it feels like an appropriate time to take stock of what has happened on the field and one of the things that has happened this year is that Kwiatkowski and his defensive staff members have created a pretty damn good defense.
Oh, no one would quite suggest that the unit rates up there with the 1985 Chicago Bears, but dropping the average points allowed from 31.1 points in 2021 to 20.6 points this season is nothing to sniff at. That it's the best scoring defense for the Longhorns since the 2009 unit allowed 16.7 points per game allows for some proper framing of what has been accomplished on the defensive side of the ball.
When you consider that a lot of folks were ready to run Kwiatkowski out of town before this season started, maybe an "attaboy" isn't enough. Maybe slightly more appreciation is needed.
Personally, I have no problem declaring that Kwiatkowski is the Coach of the Year on Steve Sarkisian's staff, with all due respect to Kyle Flood.
Yet, in the ultimate show of "what have you done for me lately," it's hard not to wonder the kind of effort it will take from Kwiatkowski to repeat the same level of performance in 2023.
Take a look at this photo from @Harambe85, which displays the defensive snaps leaders going into the weekend. All of the red marks cross out the players scheduled to depart following the season. That's nine of the top 14 players used on the defense this year, if you include Jaylan Ford (which may or may not be wrong to assume).
(Note: If we're counting players that might be departing, you should probably include Jahdae Barron, who will absolutely have a decision to make about his future as well when the season concludes.)
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Let's take a position-by-position look at the state of things going into next season.
Defensive Tackle
Players Scheduled to Depart: Keondre Coburn, T'Vondre Sweat and Moro Ojomo
Players that have NFL Draft Decisions to Make: None
Contributing Players Set to Return: Byron Murphy (37.77%), Vernon Broughton (26.53) and Alfred Collins (23.81)
Young Players In the Program: Jaray Bledsoe, Kris Ross and Aaron Bryant
Incoming Recruits: Sydir Mitchell
Thoughts: It feels like a case of good and bad news. On one hand, there's no question that the loss of Coburn, Sweat and Ojomo will take a toll on the defensive line. On the other hand, Murphy has a chance to be one of the best interior defensive linemen in the Big 12 next season and there is a collection of talent waiting in the wings to help fill the void of the departures. Collins and Broughton will need to step up in terms of their collective disruption, but they've both played roughly 200 snaps this season, which is far from insignificant. This group might not quite be as impactful as this season's unit, but if Collins and Broughton take steps forward and one of the young freshmen can do the same, this is a position that should be pretty good.
Defensive Ends/Edge
Players Scheduled to Depart: Ovie Oghoufo
Players that have NFL Draft Decisions to Make: None
Contributing Players Set to Return: Barryn Sorrell (63.7%), Justice Finkley (15.5%) and Prince Dorbah (9.66%)
Young Players In the Program: D.J. Harris, J'Mond Tapp, Ethan Burke and Zac Swanson
Incoming Recruits: Colton Vasek, Dylan Spencer and Billy Walton
Thoughts: It's more good/bad news. The return of Sorrell will give the Longhorns a likely pre-season first-team All-Big 12 player at defensive end. It's the edge position that is a total question mark with the departure of Oghoufo, who went into this weekend having played nearly 75% of all snaps at the position. Tapp will obviously be in the mix, but everything else is a total question mark. If a player can be found in the Portal, he needs to be brought in. Everyone that is scheduled to be in the mix outside of Sorrell is mostly unproven, if not completely unproven. God help this group if anything was to happen to Sorrell because there's a massive drop off on paper behind him.
Linebackers
Players Scheduled to Depart: DeMarvion Overshown, Diamonte Tucker-Dorsey, Jett Bush and Luke Brockermeyer
Players that have NFL Draft Decisions to Make: Jaylan Ford
Contributing Players Set to Return: Devin Richardson (11.0%) and David Gbenda
Young Players In the Program: Derrick Brown and Trevell Johnson
Incoming Recruits: S'Maje Burrell, Derion Gullette and Leona Lefau
Thoughts: There's growing suspicion that Ford could leave for the NFL after his breakout season. It cannot be stressed enough that his return to the defense is critical for next season. Without him, we're looking at a linebacker unit that pretty much would need to be rebuilt from scratch. It would make landing a couple of incomers from the Portal a paramount need. Even if Ford returns, it's tough to pinpoint in November of 2022 where things might stand in August of 2023. This currently represents a major area of concern.
Defensive Backs
Players Scheduled to Depart: D'Shawn Jamison and Anthony Cook
Players that have NFL Draft Decisions to Make: Jahdae Barron
Contributing Players Set to Return: Ryan Watts (77.0%), Jerrin Thompson (87.1%), Jaylon Guilbeau (27.9%), Kitan Crawford (23.1%), Jamier Johnson (21.0%), Michael Taaffe (19.7%), Terrence Brooks (14.4%), Austin Jordan (7.1%) and Morice Blackwell
Young Players In the Program: Xavian Brice, Bryan Allen Jr. and Larry Turner-Gooden
Incoming Recruits: Malik Muhammad and Derrick Williams
Thoughts: Quality depth is a concern, but the Longhorns could have double-digit returning players in the secondary that have played a considerable amount of football. Even if Barron departed, which is no sure thing, the return of Watts, Thompson and Guilbeau gives the Longhorns a lot to build around. If someone in the Portal could show up and be an immediate starter, I think you'd have to take him, but this looks like a potentially very good group.
No. 2 - The Bottom line with the Defense ...
The edge and linebacker positions are clearly the biggest worries.
The interior defensive line, secondary and Barryn Sorrell should give Kwiatkowski a strong foundation from which to build.
Depth all over the place will need to be developed and is a general concern.
There's a lot of work for this staff, which has had a great last 12 months, to do in the next 10 months.
No. 3 - About the quarterback position ...
Quinn Ewers' season passing efficiency dropped to 128.2 over the weekend.
That would rank 79th in the country and ninth in the Big 12 if he had enough pass attempts to officially qualify for both leaderboards.
To put that into perspective, Case McCoy had a higher passing efficiency in his second season out of high school in 2011 than Ewers currently has with one game to go.
There's just no way we're going to enter the 2023 season without another quarterback battle playing a huge role in defining the upcoming off-season. Ewers just hasn't played well enough this season that you can just give him the benefit of the doubt going into 2023, especially when Arch Manning will be on campus in roughly 60 days.
It doesn't matter if none of this is wanted or if this wasn't the plan when Ewers transferred or Manning committed .... this is where we are.
Of course, Ewers will be the favorite going into the off-season to be the starter in 2023, but he has to make massive improvement if he's going to keep the job. That means a significant increase with his commitment to the playbook and preparation next season. That also means progressing to the point that he's not leaning on one-read progressions in the passing game.
The 2023 off-season will be the most important year of work behind the scenes that he's ever made in his career and if he doesn't improve significantly, he's going to lose his job. Originally, the thought process was that Manning could sit in 2023 and take over in 2024, but Ewers doesn't currently look like a player that is going to be declaring for the NFL Draft in 12-14 months, which means that if he remains the starter beyond 2023, he'll be keeping Manning on the bench for two seasons.
I'm not sure I see that happening. If it does, it means a hell of a lot of progress will have been made.
p.s. - Hudson Card's 158.1 season efficiency would currently rank second in the Big 12 by 11.1 points if he had enough pass attempts to qualify.
No. 4 - Bijan's quest to track down Jamaal Charles ...
With one regular season game to go, Bijan Robinson (3,231) needs 98 yards to surpass Jamaal Charles (3,328) for fourth place on the Texas all-time rushing chart.
Take a look at the top 5.
1. Ricky Williams (6,279)
2. Cedric Benson (5,540)
3. Earl Campbell (4,443)
4. Jamaal Charles (3,328)
5. Bijan Robinson (3,231)
Man ... how good were Benson and Williams? Even if Robinson came back for his senior season, he'd likely need 2,000+ yards to track down Benson for second place.
Ricky is basically untouchable. His numbers look like Cy Young's in baseball.
No. 5 - Imagine if he had played well in week one ...
This is where Jaylan Ford ranks on the Texas team in a number of key categories ...
1st in tackles (96)
1st in solo tackles (55)
1st in interceptions (3)
1st in forced fumbles (3)
1st in fumble recoveries (2)
4th in tackles for loss (8)
He's only one tackle for loss behind Jahdae Barron, so it's not out of the question that he finishes first in all six categories.
No. 6 - Scattershooting on the Longhorns ...
... It feels like Keilan Robinson's return in 2022 isn't talked about enough.
... As good as the defense has played, it's kind of surprising that no defender has recorded more than Sorell's 9 tackles for loss season.
... I still can't believe the Longhorns won a road game on a day when Xavier Worthy and Ja'Tavion Sanders combined for three catches and 31 yards.
... Morice Blackwell very quietly was the co-leader in total tackles (6) last night, including one tackle for loss.
... Now that DJ Campbell has burned his redshirt, I wonder if Kyle Flood wishes he had just played him more during the season?
... T-minus two months until he's on campus...
... Savion Red is hellacious as a blocker, but he's going to need to show that he can be a little more explosive (6.6 yards per reception) if he's going to be more than a situational player in the receiving unit.
... Texas has to get better at the punter position in 2023. On the other hand, Bert Auburn has connected on 78.3% of his field goals this season. We'd have all taken that before the season started, right?
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) I think he goes pro and I think he ends up being a day two pick.
(Sell) From 10 to 50? Nah.
(Sell) Aren't you doing the same thing to Card right now that you are frustrated with others doing to Ewers? Frankly, you're looking at the Ewers situation through a vacuum if you're only looking at the Kansas game, which he played with training wheels on. It's been a while since he's played at a high level. Meanwhile, Card has only been better this season in terms of efficiency rating by 30 points. He's no savior, but he's played better this season. That's not a subjective opinion. That's math.
(Buy) I just don't see him coming back to Texas with the quarterback situation being such a question mark going into next season. It's his contract year he'll have options and he's likely going to want something a little less risky.
(Buy) I'm truly 50-50 on this, but I'm going to bank on him making real progress in the next 12 months.
(Buy) One of the most important aspects of this season was his ability to develop the quarterback position to the point that it was an absolute strength going into next season, no questions asked. It's the second year in a row it hasn't happened.
(Sell) I'm not sure I see anyone on this staff getting a promotion after this season.
(Sell) I think we'll see more rotation next season with so many quality backs slated to be on the roster.
(Sell) He'll announce his decision much closer to Signing Day than December 1 in my estimation.
(Buy) He wouldn't be the starting quarterback right now without the huge reputation that arrived with him.
(Sell) This team would be playing for a Big 12 title with slightly better than decent quarterback play.
(Sell) That number feels high.
(Sell) Worthy is one of the best players in the program and a sure-thing NFL player. Texas needs more players like him, not less.
(Buy) Yes ... I think so.
(Sell) The word satisfied isn't the one that comes to mind. There are a lot of positives from this season that make elements of it a success, but is anyone truly satisfied? It's a missed opportunity as much as anything.
(Sell) However, I would rather have two seasons of Stewart than one more season of Worthy.
(Sell) I just don' think we can completely know. He's not very good right now, but that doesn't mean that he can't make incredible improvement. There are plenty of examples that can go either way.
(Buy) I'd probably call it 60-40 for TCU.
(Sell) Huge? It's not insignificant, but I don't know that it's huge. Can't we just say it would be big?
(Sell) Let's get that quarterback thing going good and rebuild the defense a little before we start calling shots.
(Sell) Let's hope not. That might mean we're talking about 2024 or 2025 before this program really takes off and competes for something significant.
(Sell) Nope. I don't see that at all. He didn't even play yesterday.
(Sell) I think it's more likely that Texas would be 8-3.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on anything and everything ...
... Shout out to the Texas Volleyball team. Now the real season begins.
... If I had a vote that mattered ...
1. Georgia
2 Michigan
3. Ohio State
4. TCU
5. LSU
6. USC
7. Alabama
8. Clemson
9. Doesn't matter
10. Matters even less
... Heisman Ballot: 1. QB Caleb Williams (USC), 2. QB CJ Stroud (Ohio State), 3. RB Blake Corum (Michigan), 4. QB Hendon Hooker (Tennessee) and 5. Bijan Robinson (Texas)
... He's the best thing to happen to College GameDay... maybe ever.
... Ladies and gentlemen, the 2022 Texas A&M Aggies!
... You don't have to like TCU, but it's hard not to respect them. They just keep winning games, even when their clock management in the final 30 seconds makes very little sense.
... The importance of Blake Corum to Michigan was never more apparent than when the Wolverines no longer had him.
... My goodness ... South Carolina battered the hell out of Tennessee.
... I'm not sure I enjoyed a game this year as much as I enjoyed USC/UCLA. That was a hell of a lot of fun.
... Mack Brown losing to a bad football team in November felt like a very un-Mack Brown thing.
... Kansas State has earned my respect.
... Bedlam bored me.
... The Dallas Cowboys spanked the hell out of the Vikings and I absolutely loved it, although I needed a little more from both Ceedee Lamb and Dalvin Cook in fantasy.
... Who we thinking about in the Draft, Texans fans?
... Seattle must be cackling to themselves every day they see Russell Wilson play for Denver. Wow, that trade looks awful.
... Is Dan Campbell going to save his job?
... The World Cup has officially begun.
... It feels like USA/Wales is everything for the red, white and blue. The boys have to get a result or their trip won't likely last beyond the group stage. No pressure.
... I really don't have it in me to fully explain Ladder-Gate, but if you're really bored, look it up. It's pretty wild.
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 War Movies...
I've got a pretty controversial hot take to lead off this week's section, as I watched The Great Escape for the first time this weekend.
Overall ... meh.
I'm not saying I didn't enjoy parts of it, but I am saying it was really long and didn't completely hold up as a great movie to me nearly 60 years after its release. That the story was based on a real story, but wasn't remotely accurate to what happened also didn't do the film any favors.
Therefore, let me give you my 10 favorite war movies
10. Apocalypse Now
9. Platoon
8. Schindler's List
7. Braveheart
6. The Deer Hunter
5. Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
4. Full Metal Jacket
3. The Bridge on the River Kwai
2. Saving Private Ryan
1. Patton
No. 10 - And Finally ...
In looking at some bowl projections today, it looks like Oklahoma could be heading to the Texas Bowl.
That's ironic.
As far as the Longhorns are concerned...
Mark Schabach (ESPN): Texas vs Oregon
Kyle Bonagura (ESPN): Texas vs. Washington
Steve Lassan (Athlon): Texas vs. Washington
Looks like the Longhorns could be getting a high-level quarterback in a bowl game, one way or the other.
Oregon's Bo Nix is 6th in the country in passing efficiency, while Washington's Michael Penix Jr. is 20th. Texas has played three quarterbacks ranked in the top 25 in passing efficiency (No.5 Max Duggan, No.16 Frank Harris and No.21 Bryce Young) and is 1-2 against teams with those level of quarterbacks.
@Ketchum I didn't get a B/S question in but reading this post brought one to mind... B/S with everything posted above with players leaving and Ewers underperforming, being Bowl eligible and having an extra month of practices this year is extraordinarily important for next year.
Yeah no. Thats like saying there is no difference between murder or self defense because in both cases you stabbed a guy.
Texas needs Ewers to get it together these next 8-10 months. Can't afford to put another freshman in the starting spot.
It is your opinion that in both cases, the player involved isn't looking out for his own best interests?
Worthy has been the biggest disappointment of the season by far with his lack of effort and production. Neyor would've been a major upgrade vs. what we've seen this year with his ability to stretch the field and fight for 50-50 balls. If Worthy whines about NIL money again this offseason, let him leave. We need to go all-in on Jaylan Ford.
And Earl was fullback in the wishbone for THREE years. Unbelievable how many yards he would have racked up running out of the I.
Even with poor quarterback play, Worthy leads the Big 12 in touchdown receptions... by two.
I asked him about Worthy on Thursday. I also asked him for clarification about Quinn throwing to a spot and the receiver not being there during Monday's press conference. Honestly, I don't think there's much meat left on that bone because if there is something deeper that's going on, Sarkisian isn't willing to discuss it in public.
So if TX beats a bad Baylor team on Friday and finishes 8-4 to me that is an average year. Barely.
Just not sure how next the expectations are higher than that? Will the defense be better? Not sure how with all the guys that are gone.
How will the offense be better? Lose top 2 running backs and most reliable receiver. Along with starting right tackle.
Another rebuilding year in year 3 will be no bueno.
They threw him a crossing route in the TCU that went right through his hands so they have tried different routes.
