Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Kudos to PK, but what about 2023?)
- Thread starter Ketchum
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Prolly at best Day 3. If he goes to the draft he almost certainly will test extremely well. My biggest point is I fully expect him to make the league.
I remember seeing Master Commander in the theater and being bored out of my mind! Meanwhile, I watch The Great Escape every few years with my Dad and love every minute of it
Ok, maybe serenading Pete Kwiatkowski with a "Coming to America" inspired song about his freshly-minted royalty is a bit much for now.
Maybe an "attaboy" is enough ... but, maybe not.
With one regular-season game to go for the 2022 Texas Longhorns, it feels like an appropriate time to take stock of what has happened on the field and one of the things that has happened this year is that Kwiatkowski and his defensive staff members have created a pretty damn good defense.
Oh, no one would quite suggest that the unit rates up there with the 1985 Chicago Bears, but dropping the average points allowed from 31.1 points in 2021 to 20.6 points this season is nothing to sniff at. That it's the best scoring defense for the Longhorns since the 2009 unit allowed 16.7 points per game allows for some proper framing of what has been accomplished on the defensive side of the ball.
When you consider that a lot of folks were ready to run Kwiatkowski out of town before this season started, maybe an "attaboy" isn't enough. Maybe slightly more appreciation is needed.
Personally, I have no problem declaring that Kwiatkowski is the Coach of the Year on Steve Sarkisian's staff, with all due respect to Kyle Flood.
Yet, in the ultimate show of "what have you done for me lately," it's hard not to wonder the kind of effort it will take from Kwiatkowski to repeat the same level of performance in 2023.
Take a look at this photo from @Harambe85, which displays the defensive snaps leaders going into the weekend. All of the red marks cross out the players scheduled to depart following the season. That's nine of the top 14 players used on the defense this year, if you include Jaylan Ford (which may or may not be wrong to assume).
(Note: If we're counting players that might be departing, you should probably include Jahdae Barron, who will absolutely have a decision to make about his future as well when the season concludes.)
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Let's take a position-by-position look at the state of things going into next season.
Defensive Tackle
Players Scheduled to Depart: Keondre Coburn, T'Vondre Sweat and Moro Ojomo
Players that have NFL Draft Decisions to Make: None
Contributing Players Set to Return: Byron Murphy (37.77%), Vernon Broughton (26.53) and Alfred Collins (23.81)
Young Players In the Program: Jaray Bledsoe, Kris Ross and Aaron Bryant
Incoming Recruits: Sydir Mitchell
Thoughts: It feels like a case of good and bad news. On one hand, there's no question that the loss of Coburn, Sweat and Ojomo will take a toll on the defensive line. On the other hand, Murphy has a chance to be one of the best interior defensive linemen in the Big 12 next season and there is a collection of talent waiting in the wings to help fill the void of the departures. Collins and Broughton will need to step up in terms of their collective disruption, but they've both played roughly 200 snaps this season, which is far from insignificant. This group might not quite be as impactful as this season's unit, but if Collins and Broughton take steps forward and one of the young freshmen can do the same, this is a position that should be pretty good.
Defensive Ends/Edge
Players Scheduled to Depart: Ovie Oghoufo
Players that have NFL Draft Decisions to Make: None
Contributing Players Set to Return: Barryn Sorrell (63.7%), Justice Finkley (15.5%) and Prince Dorbah (9.66%)
Young Players In the Program: D.J. Harris, J'Mond Tapp, Ethan Burke and Zac Swanson
Incoming Recruits: Colton Vasek, Dylan Spencer and Billy Walton
Thoughts: It's more good/bad news. The return of Sorrell will give the Longhorns a likely pre-season first-team All-Big 12 player at defensive end. It's the edge position that is a total question mark with the departure of Oghoufo, who went into this weekend having played nearly 75% of all snaps at the position. Tapp will obviously be in the mix, but everything else is a total question mark. If a player can be found in the Portal, he needs to be brought in. Everyone that is scheduled to be in the mix outside of Sorrell is mostly unproven, if not completely unproven. God help this group if anything was to happen to Sorrell because there's a massive drop off on paper behind him.
Linebackers
Players Scheduled to Depart: DeMarvion Overshown, Diamonte Tucker-Dorsey, Jett Bush and Luke Brockermeyer
Players that have NFL Draft Decisions to Make: Jaylan Ford
Contributing Players Set to Return: Devin Richardson (11.0%) and David Gbenda
Young Players In the Program: Derrick Brown and Trevell Johnson
Incoming Recruits: S'Maje Burrell, Derion Gullette and Leona Lefau
Thoughts: There's growing suspicion that Ford could leave for the NFL after his breakout season. It cannot be stressed enough that his return to the defense is critical for next season. Without him, we're looking at a linebacker unit that pretty much would need to be rebuilt from scratch. It would make landing a couple of incomers from the Portal a paramount need. Even if Ford returns, it's tough to pinpoint in November of 2022 where things might stand in August of 2023. This currently represents a major area of concern.
Defensive Backs
Players Scheduled to Depart: D'Shawn Jamison and Anthony Cook
Players that have NFL Draft Decisions to Make: Jahdae Barron
Contributing Players Set to Return: Ryan Watts (77.0%), Jerrin Thompson (87.1%), Jaylon Guilbeau (27.9%), Kitan Crawford (23.1%), Jamier Johnson (21.0%), Michael Taaffe (19.7%), Terrence Brooks (14.4%), Austin Jordan (7.1%) and Morice Blackwell
Young Players In the Program: Xavian Brice, Bryan Allen Jr. and Larry Turner-Gooden
Incoming Recruits: Malik Muhammad and Derrick Williams
Thoughts: Quality depth is a concern, but the Longhorns could have double-digit returning players in the secondary that have played a considerable amount of football. Even if Barron departed, which is no sure thing, the return of Watts, Thompson and Guilbeau gives the Longhorns a lot to build around. If someone in the Portal could show up and be an immediate starter, I think you'd have to take him, but this looks like a potentially very good group.
No. 2 - The Bottom line with the Defense ...
The edge and linebacker positions are clearly the biggest worries.
The interior defensive line, secondary and Barryn Sorrell should give Kwiatkowski a strong foundation from which to build.
Depth all over the place will need to be developed and is a general concern.
There's a lot of work for this staff, which has had a great last 12 months, to do in the next 10 months.
No. 3 - About the quarterback position ...
Quinn Ewers' season passing efficiency dropped to 128.2 over the weekend.
That would rank 79th in the country and ninth in the Big 12 if he had enough pass attempts to officially qualify for both leaderboards.
To put that into perspective, Case McCoy had a higher passing efficiency in his second season out of high school in 2011 than Ewers currently has with one game to go.
There's just no way we're going to enter the 2023 season without another quarterback battle playing a huge role in defining the upcoming off-season. Ewers just hasn't played well enough this season that you can just give him the benefit of the doubt going into 2023, especially when Arch Manning will be on campus in roughly 60 days.
It doesn't matter if none of this is wanted or if this wasn't the plan when Ewers transferred or Manning committed .... this is where we are.
Of course, Ewers will be the favorite going into the off-season to be the starter in 2023, but he has to make massive improvement if he's going to keep the job. That means a significant increase with his commitment to the playbook and preparation next season. That also means progressing to the point that he's not leaning on one-read progressions in the passing game.
The 2023 off-season will be the most important year of work behind the scenes that he's ever made in his career and if he doesn't improve significantly, he's going to lose his job. Originally, the thought process was that Manning could sit in 2023 and take over in 2024, but Ewers doesn't currently look like a player that is going to be declaring for the NFL Draft in 12-14 months, which means that if he remains the starter beyond 2023, he'll be keeping Manning on the bench for two seasons.
I'm not sure I see that happening. If it does, it means a hell of a lot of progress will have been made.
p.s. - Hudson Card's 158.1 season efficiency would currently rank second in the Big 12 by 11.1 points if he had enough pass attempts to qualify.
No. 4 - Bijan's quest to track down Jamaal Charles ...
With one regular season game to go, Bijan Robinson (3,231) needs 98 yards to surpass Jamaal Charles (3,328) for fourth place on the Texas all-time rushing chart.
Take a look at the top 5.
1. Ricky Williams (6,279)
2. Cedric Benson (5,540)
3. Earl Campbell (4,443)
4. Jamaal Charles (3,328)
5. Bijan Robinson (3,231)
Man ... how good were Benson and Williams? Even if Robinson came back for his senior season, he'd likely need 2,000+ yards to track down Benson for second place.
Ricky is basically untouchable. His numbers look like Cy Young's in baseball.
No. 5 - Imagine if he had played well in week one ...
This is where Jaylan Ford ranks on the Texas team in a number of key categories ...
1st in tackles (96)
1st in solo tackles (55)
1st in interceptions (3)
1st in forced fumbles (3)
1st in fumble recoveries (2)
4th in tackles for loss (8)
He's only one tackle for loss behind Jahdae Barron, so it's not out of the question that he finishes first in all six categories.
No. 6 - Scattershooting on the Longhorns ...
... It feels like Keilan Robinson's return in 2022 isn't talked about enough.
... As good as the defense has played, it's kind of surprising that no defender has recorded more than Sorell's 9 tackles for loss season.
... I still can't believe the Longhorns won a road game on a day when Xavier Worthy and Ja'Tavion Sanders combined for three catches and 31 yards.
... Morice Blackwell very quietly was the co-leader in total tackles (6) last night, including one tackle for loss.
... Now that DJ Campbell has burned his redshirt, I wonder if Kyle Flood wishes he had just played him more during the season?
... T-minus two months until he's on campus...
... Savion Red is hellacious as a blocker, but he's going to need to show that he can be a little more explosive (6.6 yards per reception) if he's going to be more than a situational player in the receiving unit.
... Texas has to get better at the punter position in 2023. On the other hand, Bert Auburn has connected on 78.3% of his field goals this season. We'd have all taken that before the season started, right?
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) I think he goes pro and I think he ends up being a day two pick.
(Sell) From 10 to 50? Nah.
(Sell) Aren't you doing the same thing to Card right now that you are frustrated with others doing to Ewers? Frankly, you're looking at the Ewers situation through a vacuum if you're only looking at the Kansas game, which he played with training wheels on. It's been a while since he's played at a high level. Meanwhile, Card has only been better this season in terms of efficiency rating by 30 points. He's no savior, but he's played better this season. That's not a subjective opinion. That's math.
(Buy) I just don't see him coming back to Texas with the quarterback situation being such a question mark going into next season. It's his contract year he'll have options and he's likely going to want something a little less risky.
(Buy) I'm truly 50-50 on this, but I'm going to bank on him making real progress in the next 12 months.
(Buy) One of the most important aspects of this season was his ability to develop the quarterback position to the point that it was an absolute strength going into next season, no questions asked. It's the second year in a row it hasn't happened.
(Sell) I'm not sure I see anyone on this staff getting a promotion after this season.
(Sell) I think we'll see more rotation next season with so many quality backs slated to be on the roster.
(Sell) He'll announce his decision much closer to Signing Day than December 1 in my estimation.
(Buy) He wouldn't be the starting quarterback right now without the huge reputation that arrived with him.
(Sell) This team would be playing for a Big 12 title with slightly better than decent quarterback play.
(Sell) That number feels high.
(Sell) Worthy is one of the best players in the program and a sure-thing NFL player. Texas needs more players like him, not less.
(Buy) Yes ... I think so.
(Sell) The word satisfied isn't the one that comes to mind. There are a lot of positives from this season that make elements of it a success, but is anyone truly satisfied? It's a missed opportunity as much as anything.
(Sell) However, I would rather have two seasons of Stewart than one more season of Worthy.
(Sell) I just don' think we can completely know. He's not very good right now, but that doesn't mean that he can't make incredible improvement. There are plenty of examples that can go either way.
(Buy) I'd probably call it 60-40 for TCU.
(Sell) Huge? It's not insignificant, but I don't know that it's huge. Can't we just say it would be big?
(Sell) Let's get that quarterback thing going good and rebuild the defense a little before we start calling shots.
(Sell) Let's hope not. That might mean we're talking about 2024 or 2025 before this program really takes off and competes for something significant.
(Sell) Nope. I don't see that at all. He didn't even play yesterday.
(Sell) I think it's more likely that Texas would be 8-3.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on anything and everything ...
... Shout out to the Texas Volleyball team. Now the real season begins.
... If I had a vote that mattered ...
1. Georgia
2 Michigan
3. Ohio State
4. TCU
5. LSU
6. USC
7. Alabama
8. Clemson
9. Doesn't matter
10. Matters even less
... Heisman Ballot: 1. QB Caleb Williams (USC), 2. QB CJ Stroud (Ohio State), 3. RB Blake Corum (Michigan), 4. QB Hendon Hooker (Tennessee) and 5. Bijan Robinson (Texas)
... He's the best thing to happen to College GameDay... maybe ever.
... Ladies and gentlemen, the 2022 Texas A&M Aggies!
... You don't have to like TCU, but it's hard not to respect them. They just keep winning games, even when their clock management in the final 30 seconds makes very little sense.
... The importance of Blake Corum to Michigan was never more apparent than when the Wolverines no longer had him.
... My goodness ... South Carolina battered the hell out of Tennessee.
... I'm not sure I enjoyed a game this year as much as I enjoyed USC/UCLA. That was a hell of a lot of fun.
... Mack Brown losing to a bad football team in November felt like a very un-Mack Brown thing.
... Kansas State has earned my respect.
... Bedlam bored me.
... The Dallas Cowboys spanked the hell out of the Vikings and I absolutely loved it, although I needed a little more from both Ceedee Lamb and Dalvin Cook in fantasy.
... Who we thinking about in the Draft, Texans fans?
... Seattle must be cackling to themselves every day they see Russell Wilson play for Denver. Wow, that trade looks awful.
... Is Dan Campbell going to save his job?
... The World Cup has officially begun.
... It feels like USA/Wales is everything for the red, white and blue. The boys have to get a result or their trip won't likely last beyond the group stage. No pressure.
... I really don't have it in me to fully explain Ladder-Gate, but if you're really bored, look it up. It's pretty wild.
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 War Movies...
I've got a pretty controversial hot take to lead off this week's section, as I watched The Great Escape for the first time this weekend.
Overall ... meh.
I'm not saying I didn't enjoy parts of it, but I am saying it was really long and didn't completely hold up as a great movie to me nearly 60 years after its release. That the story was based on a real story, but wasn't remotely accurate to what happened also didn't do the film any favors.
Therefore, let me give you my 10 favorite war movies
10. Apocalypse Now
9. Platoon
8. Schindler's List
7. Braveheart
6. The Deer Hunter
5. Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
4. Full Metal Jacket
3. The Bridge on the River Kwai
2. Saving Private Ryan
1. Patton
No. 10 - And Finally ...
In looking at some bowl projections today, it looks like Oklahoma could be heading to the Texas Bowl.
That's ironic.
As far as the Longhorns are concerned...
Mark Schabach (ESPN): Texas vs Oregon
Kyle Bonagura (ESPN): Texas vs. Washington
Steve Lassan (Athlon): Texas vs. Washington
Looks like the Longhorns could be getting a high-level quarterback in a bowl game, one way or the other.
Oregon's Bo Nix is 6th in the country in passing efficiency, while Washington's Michael Penix Jr. is 20th. Texas has played three quarterbacks ranked in the top 25 in passing efficiency (No.5 Max Duggan, No.16 Frank Harris and No.21 Bryce Young) and is 1-2 against teams with those level of quarterbacks.
Cant be... I mean, this is literally from 15 days ago...
I don't think it will be many guys that would be real contributors. Guys from out of state should always be watched.
This whole article felt like Ketch hinting that he doesn’t think Sark makes it to a 2nd contact.
•Graded Sarks coaching at a C
•Said be prepared for QB controversy
•Said our best potential best playmaker next year (Worthy) will transfer
•Called our defense good but said it will be damn hard to repeat
@Ketchum how many years do you think Sark makes it here?
•Graded Sarks coaching at a C
•Said be prepared for QB controversy
•Said our best potential best playmaker next year (Worthy) will transfer
•Called our defense good but said it will be damn hard to repeat
@Ketchum how many years do you think Sark makes it here?
615 yards and 8 TD against the very end of WC defense.
Of course, Ricky had 750 yards in his 4 years against better A&M defenses.
Because...
a. He'll have options.
b. The quarterback play
c. Next year is his contract year and he's not risking it with b
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1. Bijan easily could’ve been a 1,200 yard back if Herman would’ve played him his freshman year. And playing a 4th year would have him challenging for that 2 spot. Or so I think.
2. How dare you leave Glory off your list. It is easily one of my top 5 favorite movies of all time. We Were Soldiers was a great one, and I’d have probably replaced Braveheart with The Patriot. Mel Gibson makes a decent war flick, doesn’t he?
2. How dare you leave Glory off your list. It is easily one of my top 5 favorite movies of all time. We Were Soldiers was a great one, and I’d have probably replaced Braveheart with The Patriot. Mel Gibson makes a decent war flick, doesn’t he?
You hearing things on this, or just based on it making a lot of sense? Understand if you'd rather not say.
Sark going into year 3 still not having a solid QB play is really really bad. Thats why he was brought he specifically and he is failing badly at it.
1. Herman treated Bijan like he was 12.
2. Glory might have been the last movie out. It was either No.11 or No.12
Stop the silliness. He has something like 22 touchdowns in 23 games.... with mostly very average to shitty quarterback play.
- Mar 25, 2022
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We all know Ricky is probably the best the majority of us will ever see in our lifetime. Curious if you have compared what Bijan numbers looked like with 30 games under his belt compared to Ricky’s did in 30 games? Plus receiving yards, all purpose yards etc?
2000 - L to Tree that finished 5-6
2001 - L in CCG to a CU team we destroyed by 5 TDs 6 weeks earlier.
2002 - L to 7-4 Tech which ended up costing us CCG berth
2003 - horrible home to Arky. Ugly Bowl L to Wazzou.
2006 - L at KSU coached by Ron Prince. Home L to ACES that cost us CCG berth.
2007 - blowout by Ron Prince KSU team that went 5-7. L to ACES that went 7-6.
I’m not sure Q’s falloff is all due to regression but his accuracy and touch has sure been off since his “finger” injury. His throws have been more often high than not, and he’s undoubtedly become to quick to pull the trigger and not go through his progression.
@Ketchum Ewers just does not make sense to me. He was rated as a prospect in the same way as Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Caleb Williams., etc Yet, he cannot go through simple progressions in the passing game? And he's not a guy that makes plays with his feet. Were the recruiting analysts just straight up wrong about him? Nothing that I have seen from him suggests to me he is a generational talent (other than OU game). He's supposed to be known for his ability to make plays with his arm, but I'm seeing him miss pretty damn easy throws every week. Was he simply a product of being on a really good high school team?
When you get 70 % plus of the targets, you’re bound to score a lot of touchdowns. If worthy had the heart of J Whitt or Roschon things would be different. We’ll just agree to disagree.
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It’s intellectually dishonest to claim the ‘03 and ‘04 were REMOTELY part of the WC era. And it’s a stretch to say that about ‘01 & ‘02 ACES Ds. The four Ricky ran over were exponentially better than those crap Ds several years later.
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