Back in December of 2020, I was talking to a member of the Texas Board of Regents about the pending firing on Tom Herman and the possible hire of Steve Sarkisian as his replacement.
"It's about fine margins and we think Sark is an upgrade of Herman," the source said. "We think Herman is a very good coach that can win us nine or 10 games a year. We're making this move because we think Sark is an upgrade, even if a small one, over what we have. We think it can be the difference between being good and being great."
As it turns out, Sarkisian wasn't just a small upgrade of Herman, but a fairly massive one.
With five days to go before the Longhorns take on Ohio State in the semifinals of the national playoffs, it's important to take stock and appreciate where Sarkisian has lifted the Texas program.
* Texas is the only school in the nation that has made repeat appearances to the national semifinals.
* Texas is the only school that has made the playoffs in the last two consecutive seasons.
* With its win over Arizona State, Texas is the only school in the nation with wins in all six New Year’s Six Bowls.
* Texas' 25 wins in the last two seasons is the most by any two-year window in school history.
The reality for the Longhorns is that they've entered incredibly rarified air over the course of the last two seasons. While they aren't on the level of an Alabama, Georgia or Ohio State (and possibly Michigan), there's no other program that it has to take a back seat to in the hierarchy of the sport.
That wasn't the case when Sarkisian took the job and it wasn't the case at the end of year two. Yet, that's where things stand going into this week's Cotton Bowl match-up.
Everything that happens from this moment moving forward is about joining the power 3 that has historically dominated the sport for more than a decade. In order to get on that level, these are the games that have to be won. Otherwise, you live in the land of very good and never the land of great ... kinda like a Notre Dame, Penn State or ... uh ... Oklahoma (once upon a time).
This isn't about Texas being back. Texas has been back. This is about Texas being elite of the elite of the elite, which it is not quite there yet.
That can change in five days. This is the new glass ceiling that the Longhorns have to shatter and they don't come around every day.
Friday represents an opportunity for elevation. A loss only means that the Longhorns will have to count down the days until a new opportunity presents itself next January. A win means that you might just be in the club with one more win after that.
No. 2 - Portal, Portal, Portal ...
Steve Sarkisian has always maintained that the backbone of his program will always feature the dedication and commitment from high school players that the staff brings in from traditional recruiting.
True to his word, slightly more than 87 percent of the scholarship roster is comprised of high school athletes that didn't arrive from the Portal. This is a Texas football program whose bread and butter are highly-ranked prospects from the high school ranks.
Still, it was impossible to watch UT's win over Arizona State and not pay a hell of a lot of attention to the 12.94 percent of the roster that did arrive from the Portal. Perhaps they are small on numbers, but profound in impact.
Considering the players I'm talking about ...
QB - Quinn Ewers: All he did was save the team's bacon in both of the overtimes with touchdown passes that cemented Texas grabbing victory from the jaws of defeat. I feel like I could type the words "4th and 13" and it would say enough about Ewers' role.
WR - Matthew Golden - 7 receptions for 149 yards and a touchdowns. Oh, and 4th and 13.
WR - Silas Bolden - His 75-yard punt return for a touchdown was the biggest play of the game in the first half.
Edge - Trey Moore - Finished with 5 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss and 2.0 sacks and yet the numbers still don't seem to be doing his performance justice.
DTs - Bill Norton/Jermayne Lole - No hugely significant plays this week, but these two played a lot of snaps on the interior defensive line.
S - Andrew Mukuba - All he did was make eight tackles and snatch the game-clinching interception.
The purpose of this reminder is twofold.
a. There was a lot of key Portal influence in Wednesday's win and it felt important to note the significant contributions.
b. Reemphasize how important it is that the Longhorns weaponize the Portal the way that they have in the last two seasons.
As far as I'm concerned, the Longhorns are the Poster Boy in college football for the correct way to use the Portal.
No. 3 - Malik Muhammad is in the spotlight ...
For most of the season, the Longhorns haven't played anyone that could properly test the Texas defensive backfield in a meaningful way.
That's not to say that the Texas pass defense rankings have to come with a grain of salt, but there's no getting around the fact that guys like Diego Pavia (39th nationally in passing) and Marcel Reed (44th) were the only top-50 quarterbacks that the Longhorns had played all season until the last two games when the combination of Cade Klubnik and Sam Leavitt have raised the bar for the defense.
The bar raises again on Friday with the arrival of the nation's No. 3 passer - Ohio State's Will Howard (175.8 rating).
What we've learned the last couple of weeks against improved quarterback play is that the poison that teams are absolutely willing to take is throwing at No. 5 in burnt orange ... sophomore Malik Muhammad.
According to PFF, Muhammad has been targeted 56 times this season and has allowed 20 receptions for 421 yards and one touchdowns ... pretty damn good numbers. In fact, up until the 12th game of the season, Muhammad had been targeted in coverage only 21 times in the first 11 games of the season and never more than three times in any game.
Yet, in the last four games of the season, starting against Texas A&M, teams have decided that the best way to attack the Texas secondary is by taking their chances with Muhammad.
Last four games ...
at A&M - 7 targets - 5 receptions for 43 yards and 0 TD (87.2 NFL rating)
vs UGA - 6 targets - 4 receptions for 42 yards and 0 touchdowns (86.2 rating)
vs. Clemson - 8 targets - 6 catches for 120 yards and 0 touchdowns (116.7 NFL rating)
vs. ASU - 4 targets - 2 receptions for 44 yards and 1 TD (129.2 rating)
On the surface, this isn't reason for any of us to cry out in panic in the streets, but after hardly being tested this season, teams are coming after him. Consider these yardage amounts given up by Muhammad in his first 11 games (in order): 0, 13, 6, 0, 18, 19, 42, 15, 0, 17 and 42.
Considering that Ohio State is bringing perhaps the best wide receiver trio in the country to the Cotton Bowl in the form of Jeremiah Smith (1,224 yards and 14 TD), Emeka Egbuka (896 yards and 10 TD) and Carnell Tate (611 yards and 4 TD), the fact that Muhammad's productivity has declined in recent weeks and that teams are absolutely seeking him out in coverage is a major storyline in this game.
Muhammad hasn't played poorly in recent weeks, but he hasn't been excellent, either.
The spotlight will be on him this weekend and if he doesn't shine, the season could come to an end on his watch.
No. 4 - Biggest Portal Need?
Assuming that the Longhorns are going to lose the trio of Silas Bolden (graduation), Matthew Golden (NFL) and Isaiah Bond (NFL) in the coming weeks, it would leave the Texas wide receiver position looking like this from a productivity standpoint (2024 season):
1. DeAndre Moore - 35 catches
2. Ryan Wingo - 28 catches
3. Amari Niblack - 5 catches
4. Ryan Niblett - 3 catches
Not including running backs, the Longhorns have 71 career catches among their wide receiver and tight end positions.
Obviously, the Longhorns are bringing in a pretty hellacious freshman class of wide receivers, but it's hard to think that Steve Sarkisian and sit tight with the group that he has going into Arch Manning's first season as a starter.
If Wingo replaces Bond and Moore returns to man the slot, the Longhorns are still in need of a proven, bad ass downfield playmaker on the opposite flank from Wingo. If any of those freshmen can come in and force their way onto the field, awesome. However, the coaches can't sit on their hands and hope. It's a chance that can't be taken and one that I doubt will be taken over the course of the spring.
Finding a big-time wide receiver in the Portal is an absolute must. They just have to find him.
No. 5 - Scattershooting on the Longhorns ...
... I don't expect the Longhorns to deploy the three-safety look against Ohio State that they ran against Arizona State quite a bit which featured Jelani McDonald moving around as a hybrid overhang nickel/linebacker, but I could see the Longhorns using it a lot against Notre Dame or Penn State in a national championship game. Just something to file away.
... This feels like a Jaylon Guilbeau kind of game. Teams have completed 71.2 percent of passes aimed at him this season and have posted a 100.0 NFL rating in the process, but the truth is that teams don't test Guilbeau much in coverage. So, far teams have targeted him at a rate of less than 4.0 per game, producing a total of 386 yards (9.2 TYC) and 2 TD. You have to go all the way back to the Arkansas game to find a moment on the schedule when teams targeted him 4+ times in a game.
... Guilbeau's season kind of reminds me of Jahdae Barron's season from 2024. His general play has been very solid, but the difference-making plays are hard to find, as he currently has 0 INT, 3 pass break-ups, 0 forced fumbles, 0 fumble recoveries and 0 sacks. I KNOW the kid is playing really good football this season, but the data points that would project something higher simply aren't there. He needs to come back and have a big year.
… Check out this Texas sack leaderboard through ... ahem... 15 games: 1. Colins Simmons (9) 2. Anthony Hill (7.5) 3. Trey Moore (6.5) 4. Barry Sorrell (5.5) 5. Vernon Broughton (3)
... Texas has four players on defense with double-digits in tackles for loss: 1. Anthony Hill (16) 2. Colin Simmons (14) 3T. Trey Moore (10.5) and 3T. Barryn Sorrell (10.5). Ethen Burke is next on the list with 8.
... Season quarterbacks hits chart: 1. Barryn Sorrell (12) 2. Colin Simmons (9) 3T. Trey Moore (5) 3T. Vernon Broughton (5) 5. Anthony Hill (4) 6. Jermayne Lole (3)
... Dare I say that the Trey Moore of the last two months is the Trey Moore we thought Texas was getting in March?
No. 6 - Just something to think about ...
Is it possible that Quinn Ewers and Sam Ehlinger are a lot more similar as players that a lot of people have ever wanted to concede when Ewers arrived following the gap year between Ehlinger's career?
Consider the following:
Career quarterback rating: Ewers (148.6), Ehlinger (145.0)
Fourth season quarterback efficiency: Ewers (150.6), Ehlinger (150.7)
Career TD to INT: Ehlinger (3.48), Ewers (2.87)
Yards per Attempt: Ewers (8.1), Ehlinger (7.7)
Obviously, we're not including any of Ehlinger's rushing totals or discussing the resumes of each player in terms of playoff wins, major bowls, conference titles, etc. ... I just thought it was interesting that there were some key passing numbers that were very similar.
No. 7 - A Texas Hoops suggestion ...
As someone that has already dedicated nearly 30 hours of valuable time to watching/covering/observing the men's Texas basketball team, I have a confession to make ...
I don't feel like I'm getting a return on my time investment.
Oh, I knew this team was going to be a drag on a lot of nights after seeing them out of the gate, but I assumed that getting to see Tre Johnson every night would be enough from an entertainment quality to make up for the lack of wins and overall hoops excitement. I was wrong. Tre Johnson isn't so good that it renders everything else moot-ish.
Let me make a suggestion ... let's just turn all of our attention to the women's team, which is ranked No. 5 in the country and just delivered the goods over No. 9 Oklahoma in its first SEC game on Thursday night. With its No. 1 overall NET ranking, the Longhorns are a legit favorite to land a No. 1 overall seed in the Tournament.
I'm not saying to give up on the men as much as I'm saying that there might be a better investment for your time, mind and soul for the next few months. Just something to think about.
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) I think he'll get another season if this team makes the Tournament, but I think he could use up his good will if this team fails to make the Tournament. There's a definite lull that exists at the moment, but I believe he has a fair amount of slack.
(Sell) No. I don't think he's quite that good.
(Sell) I believe Sarkisian could be enticed to the NFL, but only after Arch Manning's career in Austin is over. That would translate to six years, four elite seasons and two more cracks at a national title. That's not an insignificant run when you consider that he's never been anywhere longer than the five years he spent at Washington.
(Sell) Baker turned guys that has been "meh" for their entire careers into difference makers. Davis had guys that had been on the verge of being difference makers and he turned them into all-time great players. Both deserve serious pats on the back, but I'll go all-time every time.
(Sell) Tell me Quinn Ewers and Malik Muhammad
(Sell) No teenager is giving up their cell phones. They'd sit through a million Dallas games to keep them. Nice try.
(Buy) The two best units in this game are the two defensive units.
(Sell) No, I don't.
(Sell) I've stopped believing. I think he's a shadow of the real player and we're never going to see it again this season.
(Sell) Not the one that is actually in the Portal.
(Buy) Sure ... what the hell.
(Sell) I guess. This is an interesting question. How am I supposed to quantify this? Is this how I will really remember this defense ... it's hard-hitting? I'm not sure that it has the pure destroyers (Tony Brackens and Bryant Westbrook) that the 1995 team had on it. It feels like the 2009 defense was more ferocious, but how do I prove that? Is it even in the conversation if we're including the old school teams that played football like it was a hand fight?
(Sell) The athletes have to have the opportunity to arrive at their new schools in the spring. That can't happen under this idea.
As things stand, this is my Mount Rushmore.
1969 - Right 53 Veer Pass
1996 - Roll Left
1998 - Ricky Williams' record-setting run vs. A&M
2005 - 4th and 5
There's a part of me that thinks I need to find a way to get Tommy Nobis stuff on Joe Namath in the 1965 Cotton Bowl on the list, but geez... how many Texas fans have even seen that play? Can it be on Mount Rushmore if no one has ever seen it?
So, can 4th and 13 make that list?
(Buy) If Texas wins the national title, it will replace Ricky's record on the list.
(Buy) 💯
(Sell) Ohio State can do all of that as well.
(Buy) Texas gets to play the underdog role all week. When was the last time it was able to truly do that? Alabama last season?
(Buy) I believe this is the national championship game.
Buy/Buy/Buy/Sell) You'll get just a little bit of soup and like it!
(Sell) Hell, I might!
(Buy) That doesn't mean that they'll make him a priority, but kick the tires? Yes.
(Sell) Interesting name drop. Everett isn't the first player that comes to mind when I think of Mukuba. If we're going with former Dallas DBs, he kind of reminds me of James Washington.
No. 9 – Scattershooting all over the place …
... I hate to admit it, but I watched North Texas/Texas State and Minnesota/Virginia Tech on Friday. What is wrong with me? All I remember is that some kid named Drew Mestemaker from Austin Vandegrift absolutely balled out in his first start since the ninth grade. Texas State won the game, but it felt like Mestemaker was the big story.
... The Cowboys lost the season-finale in the final seconds? Cool. Improved draft pick, here we go.
... Thoughts on Trey Lance? I wish we had seen more of him in the last few weeks. Too bad that wasn't possible ... Doh!
... Joe Milton cost the Patriots the first pick in the Draft. Lulz ...
... If Dallas brings back Mike McCarthy for 2025, I'm done. Why would any of us even bother?
... Oh, Jerry...
... The 92-0yard touchdown run by Dameon Pierce was pretty dope. THere's just something about a long run.
... I was really hoping the Bucs would choke away a playoff game to the Falcons. Oh well ...
... Bijan finished the season with 170 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns in his final game, which left him with 1,456 yards and 14 touchdowns for the season on the ground. He also caught 61 passes for 431 yards and another touchdown.
... Had no problem with the Bucs getting the ball to Mike Evans once the game was won in the name of getting him a personal achievement/$3 million payday.
... Derrick Henry put a stamp on his HOF credentials this weekend. The only player in NFL History with three different 1,500-yard/15 touchdowns seasons. That's amazing.
... What on earth would you give up for Jimmy Butler in a trade at this point? He's making $48.8 million this year. Woof.
... Premier League Thoughts: GRTRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!! That was a wasted opportunity. I'm really ok with letting Trent walk to Madrid. I can't take half-ass defensive efforts anymore. Thanks, Brighton. Where has that United performance been for the last month? Newcastle is really starting to feel like a Top 4 club. Is City coming back? Could they still run Arsenal down?
No. 10 – The List: Top 10 Texas Quarterbacks
I've been getting asked this a lot, so let's just do it ... right now. Before Quinn Ewers has a chance to beat Ohio State and win a national title.
I ain't scared.
10. Eddie Phillips
Considered to be one of the best wishbone quarterbacks of all-time and the starter on the 1970 team, which went undefeated in the regular season and won the UPI national title.
9. Major Applewhite
Won Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year honors in 1999 and set every career passer record that existed while he was active. Posted a 22-8 record as a starter.
8. Chris Simms
It’s a damn shame that Texas fans didn't get one more season out of Simms because by the time the 2002 season was complete, you just wanted to see him play one more year. Simms finished his career with a better record than Applewhite (26-6) as a starter. Beat A&M three straight times when doing so really mattered.
7. Sam Ehlinger
Statistically, he's set a million records after starting 43 career games (27-16) and he'll always have the Sugar Bowl win over Georgia to hang his hat on.
6. James Brown
All these years later, I'd take the perfectly healthy version of Brown over all of the players just below him on the list. His accomplishments in 1994 and 1996, and the continued impact those wins still have, make him an obvious call in this spot.
5. Quinn Ewers
We're one spot away, but it's going to take a national title to break the top 4.
4. James Street
The man never lost. Led the Longhorns to two SWC titles and the national title in 1969.
3. Bobby Layne
Yes, he's an NFL Hall of Fame player, but he was also a four-year starter and All-SWC player for the Longhorns and was twice voted in the top 10 of the Heisman voting. A consensus All-American in 1947.
2. Colt McCoy.
Set an NCAA record at the time with 45 career wins as a starter. The school's only two-time All-American quarterback. A two-time Walter Camp Player of the Year. A four-time team MVP.
1. Vince Young.
God in cleats.
