* Warning: The following section of the column will include some math. If you are afraid of numbers that include two digits ... my bad. *
Steve Sarkisian and his Texas Longhorns are sitting on five commitments in the 2023 recruiting class.
It's mid-June.
Once upon a time under different coaching regimes, that number might have been openly questioned following a 5-7 season, but a general benefit of the doubt seems to exist from the Texas fan base towards Sarkisian and his staff after the sensational end to the 2022 recruiting cycle.
Plus, living on the smallish side with early commitments is kind of what the cool kids do at the lunch table in college football these days. Alabama has four commitments. Texas A&M has five. Both finished 1-2 in the rankings a year ago. Florida, Oklahoma, Auburn, LSU, Michigan and even Stanford each have five or fewer.
Inside the state of Texas, nearly 90 percent of the elite of the elite prospects are still on the board as undecided.
Clearly, there's no reason for panic. Yet, the question of the pathway for the 2023 recruiting class still exists. My goal is to lay out the potential pathways and establish a few marker moments for everyone to keep an eye out for in the next few months.
Let's start with the numbers that should be in everyone's head.
Texas is scheduled to have 15 outgoing seniors this season. When you factor in the fact that the Longhorns have averaged double-digit numbers in attrition for pretty much the entirety of the last two decades, it should become pretty clear that the Longhorns will have the ability to take a 25+ person class in 2023. Just how many prospects the Longhorns take could come down to how much Sarkisian wants to force the issue after nearly turning over half the roster from year one to year two.
A safe guess in my mind at this point is something between 25 and 30.
As someone that has become the unofficial spokesperson for recruiting through the Portal in the name of addressing immediate needs with high-level (and often very proven) talent, while minimizing the mathematical risks that come with every single prospect that you sign outside of the national top-70ish or so, I'm fully on board with taking 10ish kids from the Portal each season.
Considering the Longhorns have taken seven through the Portal in the last six months and would have taken quite a few more if they had landed targets that were offered, the coaches seem to be acting in a manner that suggests 10ish isn't a bad ballpark number to play with. You can argue with me about that number all you want, but it's better to shop at the Neiman Marcus stores in the Portal than the Macy's of the High School targets.
5 + 10 = 15
That leaves anywhere between 10-15 spots for the coaches to fill with as many high-level high school talents as possible, knowing that the Portal can serve as insurance if they hang in until the bitter end for any elite prospects and come up a bridesmaid.
In a near-perfect world, you'd be talking about a class that looks something like this:
QB: Arch Manning
RB: Rueben Owens
WR: Johntay Cook
WR: Jaquaize Pettaway
OL: Jaydon Chatman
DE: David Hicks Jr. (long shot)
DT: Markis Deal
LB: Anthony Hill
CB: Javien Toviano
CB: Malik Muhammad
CB: Jordan Matthews
That would leave with you another three or four spots to fill with another wide receiver, linebacker, offensive lineman, etc ...
It'll be interesting to see how patient this staff will be with holding the rope with its focus on elite talent. If last year was any indication, we're not looking at a staff that blinks easily, which is one of my favorite things about Sarkisian.
In previous recruiting campaigns, there's usually a moment when Texas coaches would start offering lower-tiered prospects in an effort to start filling up the class. The combination of the Portal existing as a healthy fallback option, along with our knowledge that any prospect that falls outside of the national top-70ish area brings an 80-percent failure rate at a minimum, means that the staff shouldn't start throwing life rafts out to any low four-star or high three-star prospect that it has a semi-crush on in the name of filling spots. That kind of addition to the recruiting class is like scratching a bug bite in that it might feel good in the moment, but it's actually doing more bad than good.
The bottom line is that there's no reason to be feeling any sort of panic. Patience is the name of the game until the likes of those listed a few paragraphs above start making decisions.
No. 2 - A few other 2023 recruiting thoughts ...
a. The Longhorns currently have 16 scholarship offensive linemen on the roster and are scheduled to lose two seniors following the season, which will leave them with 14 before the next round of attrition kicks in. Clearly, the coaching staff will take several offensive linemen in the 2023 incoming numbers, but I wonder if the best plan for the offensive line numbers in 2023 is to lean more on the Portal than with high school kids. Not a single player that the Longhorns are potentially in line to land in the upcoming class is in the same tier as the best of what Texas signed in last year's class.
b. The Portal has to be a big piece of the puzzle for linebacker talent when you consider that the Longhorns are scheduled to lose five linebackers to graduation after this season and the high school ranks in the state of Texas are historically a wasteland at the linebacker position.
c. I'm not putting much into the recent comments by Rueben Owens that TCU is his new No. 1 flavor of the week. If anything, I'd probably suggest that being the leader for Owens in June is a little like being the Heisman leader in September ... it's probably best to not be the leader now. If anything stood out to me about his recent remarks about the landscape of his recruitment, it's that he is currently listing A&M ahead of Texas.
No. 3 - One Prevailing Thought About Saturday's Offer-Fest ...
Saturday was mostly about putting notches on the belt.
As I've said for a few years now, the general goal with in-state targets for the Longhorns should be getting every primary target on campus at least a half-dozen times during their recruitments.
When you do that, you're giving yourself a very strong chance of landing that prospect. With kids from 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026 all on campus, the Longhorns were able to offer 20 prospects in person, while putting a notch in the belt for everyone that attended.
This isn't spin in the aftermath of a zero-commitment weekend, as much as it’s me expressing to you that most elite prospects aren't looking to commit right away (see the state top 10 in 2023) and there's no need to accept commits from players that aren't elite. The coaches shook hands and had conversations with an extremely large number of families this weekend.
It might not represent a win, but for a number of kids that eventually commit to the Longhorns, will point back to this weekend as the day a lot of seeds were planted.
No. 4 - Bama's sales pitch to Arch Manning and Anthony Hill ...
Nothing subtle about this. The only thing missing are the trophies the Tide could have outlined jerseys with.
Not a lot to pass along on the Manning visit, but the early word is that Alabama left quite an impression on Hill this weekend.
No. 5 - While we wait for the baseball game to resume ...
A couple of thoughts....
a. Ivan Melendez doesn't just hit home runs, he hits important home runs.
b. That comeback on Saturday has a chance to be historically significant if the Longhorns can get to Omaha.
c. If the Longhorns can get to Omaha, it will be one of only two seeded teams left in its side of the bracket. That's not to say that Notre Dame, Texas A&M and Oklahoma would represent a walk in the park, but it's a very doable prospect. The next nine innings of baseball are really important.
d. Am I crazy or are East Carolina fans doing the "Horns Down" more than Oklahoma and A&M fans combined?
No. 6 - Del Conte's resume gets a little stronger ...
Second-place finishes this week in softball, along with men's and women's outdoor track, locked up a second straight Director's Cup for the Texas Longhorns.
For an entire generation, this was pretty much the Stanford Invitational, as the Cardinal had won it in every single year since the 1994-95 academic school year. An array of teams have finished second, but none had been able to dethrone the Cardinal for 25 years.
Now the Longhorns have done it for the second straight year and you have to wonder if Texas athletic director Chris Del Conte has the athletics department in the best shape it has ever been in? Full stop.
Maybe the answer to that question has to be no until the football program is contributing to these wins, but outside of finishing second in the Director's Cup standings in three out of four years from 2002-2005, it's hard to suggest otherwise.
Check out the finishes for Texas athletics this year in each sport:
1st - Men's Indoor Track
1st - Women's Tennis
1st - Rowing
1st - Men's Golf
2nd - Men's Outdoor Track
2nd - Women's Indoor Track
2nd - Women's Outdoor Track
2nd - Men's Swim and Diving
2nd - Women's Swim and Diving
2nd - Softball
5th - Volleyball
5th - Women's Basketball
9th - Men's Tennis
13th - Women's Golf
14th - Men's Cross Country
17th - Men's basketball
32nd Women's Cross Country
33rd - Women's Soccer
UR - Football
Other than that terribly sore thumb that sticks out, that's wildly impressive.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) The SEC is going to be a hell of a lot of fun. It's Broadway for a program that has too often played off of it.
(Buy) Anything less than that isn't good enough quarterback play.
(Sell) I think they just need to go 3-1 in September or 4-1 going into the Oklahoma game. I think.
(Sell) Until we know otherwise, we'd be wise to error on the side of caution.
(Sell) I think it's because Deebo is a beast and one of the flavors of the moment in football. When you consider his do-it-all background as a player, it's not unusual to think that Whittington believes his game is somewhat similar.
(Buy) Talent acquisition is as critical as anything that happens in the program, but recruiting itself has evolved in such a way that your approach is probably a fair one. It's fair to block out what often feels like audible clutter.
(Buy) It means your athletic department is having a lot of success.
(Sell) I think the conference will have a solid little niche once all of the looming change goes down. It will never be in the big two conferences, but I think it's going to be a league that has success in all sports not named football.
(Buy) 100-percent.
(Sell) No, I don't know that I truly believe that. The 2023 recruiting class isn't going to have six five-stars in it.
(Buy) It's a mini-buy. Without knowing the schedule and how good Texas might be, it's hard to know what registers as a "major upset." However, I'll buy the spirit of the question.
(Sell) That's not the way the tea leaves look on my end.
(Sell) I think the season is probably off the rails if this happens.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the sports weekend ...
... I kind of feel for the Tennessee baseball team. To win 57 games in the regular season and not make it to Omaha is a bitter pill to have to swallow.
... Jim Schlossnagle is a hell of a baseball coach, no doubting that.
... Rest in peace, Don Perkins. It's kind of wild that he still ranks fourth in team history in rushing yards and touchdowns when you consider the number of fantastic running backs the franchise has had over the years since Perkins retired 54 years ago.
... As insanely heroic as Steph Curry was in game four in the NBA Finals, it won't matter at all if the Warriors lose the series. The stakes are massive for him in this series. A fourth ring, coupled with a Finals MVP, might just have him knocking on the door of the All-Time top 10 list.
... Draymond Green has basically become an unplayable player for Golden State in this series in a number of stretches. At the age of 32 and under contract for two more seasons, he's basically become a better media member than a foundational player on a championship team. I say that as someone that really loves Green as a player.
... Just John Kruk reflecting on his days as a softball coach when his players wouldn't intentionally throw at other players...
... I'm pretty cool without LIV golf events. I already get enough sports-washing in my life that I have to navigate through. I don't really need to add more. Just give me my four majors and I'm fairly good.
... That being said, I do love a little snideness in my golf.
... I tried to care about UFC275 and just couldn't. Where are all of the must-see-fights?
... Kind of crazy that Tampa, Florida has emerged as a central hub for the NHL. Not New York. Not Los Angeles. Not Chicago. Instead, the NHL gets Tampa. Yuck.
... I don't want to say that I have high hopes for Darwin Nunez as he arrives at Liverpool, but I fully expect Jurgen Klopp to turn him into a world class player. It's kind of what he does.
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Adam Sandler movies ...
I'd give Adam Sandler's new movie "Hustle" a solid B and maybe even a borderline B+.
It's a pretty damn good sports movie is basically a dramatic re-do of Happy Gilmore, as he plays a hand/arm handicapped coach (2022 version of Chubbs) for an underdog pro prospect that comes out of nowhere and is trying to succeed in an effort to help his family. Other than trying to make the NBA Draft Combine into the NFL Draft on steroids, it's a pretty realistic sports flick. Timberwolves young star Anthony Edwards has charisma for days in his role as the modern-day Shooter McGavin.
10. Little Nicky
I know that Uncut Gems deserves a spot on this list, but this is one of my favorite guilty pleasure comedies of all-time. It's just a perfect stoner movie of things that shouldn't be funny, but are to my demented brain.
9. Hustle
Frankly, in a battle of Hustle vs. Uncut Gems, I went with Hustle.
8. 50 First Dates
It would be impossible for me to count how many times I've watched this movie, but it used to be on cable all the time. We might be talking about a few dozen.
7. Happy Gilmore
Of the selection of early classics on his resume, this one ranks behind the others for me.
6. Spanglish
My wife has probably watched this more times than I've watched 50 First Dates.
5. The Waterboy
This scene gets me every time.
4. Punch-Drunk Love
Some will argue that this PTA effort is his best movie and I understand where they are coming from, but it's only No. 4 for me. Phillip Seymour Hoffman as his arch-nemesis is almost perfect.
3. Billy Madison
It's just so perfectly silly. It might be Steve Buscemi's best supporting role.
2. Big Daddy
This one gets me into my feelings.
1. The Wedding Singer
Sandler's masterpiece. The ONLY true selection for the top spot.
No. 10 - And Finally ...
The lion might be the king of the jungle, but do not mess with hippos, folks, otherwise known as the Casey Hamptons of the animal species.
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