One of the things that made Saturday night in Stillwater so intriguing is that for a program that always feels like it moves from crossroads situation to crossroads situation like a pack of roaming nomads, Saturday night was an honest-to-goodness legitimate crossroad.
If Texas had lost to Oklahoma State, I truly believe we'd be talking about the end of the Tom Herman era in Austin.
At one point last week, I asked one high-level admin about the level of heat that existed in Herman's kitchen and the answer I received indicated that a loss in Stillwater might have been a level of fire that no fire department in these parts could possibly put out.
A win in Stillwater?
Great question. Maybe more of a rhetorical one in nature that is suddenly a very real, tangible thing.
Now what?
Well, the likeliest answer is that we sit back and watch what happens next. The Longhorns are 4-2 and ranked 22nd in the country. In 20 days, they could be 6-2 and ranked closer to the top 10 than the top 20. Much like with the 2013 season and the end of the Mack Brown era, we might see the immediate future of the program come down to the final 120 minutes of football.
Ask yourself this ... what happens if Mack Brown had beaten Baylor at the end of that season and won the Big 12 championship? I can tell you what happens ... there's never a Red Banquet. Mack returns to Texas in 2014. The Charlie Strong Era never happens.
If you're a fan of change, you'll be comforted by the reality that Texas running the table might look very doable on paper, but nothing about Herman's history in Austin suggests that it can pull off a six-game undefeated run into the Big 12 Championship Game.
If you're a fan of certainty, you'll be discomforted by the reality that running the table looks very doable. Texas will likely be the Vegas favorite in every game it plays the rest of the way. That's not my opinion as much as that is what is actually likely to happen.
The reality is that if I had offered an 8-2 regular season record with a spot in the Big 12 championship game before the season started, sight unseen, a lot of you reading this would have snapped my hand off to accept it.
That would represent undeniable progress from a 7-5 record in 2019, no matter the outcome of the pending Big 12 Championship Game.
Of course, if Oklahoma State had handled the clock just a little better in the final minute of regulation last night, the Longhorns would be unranked with three conference losses and a million miles away from the top 10.
Folks, these are the margins we are talking about.
From my perspective, the elephant in the room at the moment is the current state of recruiting. The end of this current 2021 cycle is going to likely end with a whimper and the events from last week in the 2022 class were a scary shot across the bow.
What remains unknown is what an 8-2 season would do to recruiting, specifically in the 2022 and 2023 class? Also, what would it mean for Herman to enter next season in what would essentially be another "hot seat" season? What would have to happen in the 2020 season that would keep the 2021 season from being a hot seat season? After all, John Mackovic won the last SWC title and the first Big 12 Championship in back to back seasons in 1995-96, only to essentially be out the door before the middle of September in 1997 after the loss to UCLA.
Personally, I don't know how to answer these questions. I can tell you that every head football coach that has ever coached at Texas since I've been covering the team believes that if Texas wins, recruiting will take care of itself, Herman included. Part of the reason why Herman hired so many "coach-first" assistants coming into this season was that he was more concerned with development than recruiting. Herman would tell you that if he wins, the recruiting will be excellent. Charlie Strong believed the same. Same with Mack Brown. Same with John Mackovic.
Are they all right?
I don't know, but it's within the realm of possibilities that we're about to find out.
All of that being established, it could all fall apart inside of the ashes of another 50-50 game gone sideways as soon as in five days.
Welcome to November.
No. 2 - Maybe it means nothing, maybe it means something ...
I'm not going to make any implications with the following information, but in a universe where it has been apparent for weeks that Texas head coach Tom Herman and his boss Chris Del Conte haven't exactly been on the same page, it warrants some sort of on the record acknowledgement.
In the immediate 15 hours following Texas winning on the road at a top-10 opponent for the first time since 2010, Del Conte made zero mention of the performance on Twitter.
Texas school president Jay Hartzell did. He Tweeted twice after the game and retweeted Emmanuel Acho.
Now, I know what you're thinking ... "Ketch, Twitter is the ruin of civilization and there are a million reasons why he might not have been on his social media."
Fair points.
To that I would say that Del Conte didn't Tweet about the football team's win over Baylor, either.
Now, I know what you might be thinking ... "Ketch, Twitter is the ruin of civilization and there are a million reasons why he might not have been on his social media after the last two football games."
Fair points.
To that, I would say outside of linking his newsletter or answering questions about uniforms or retweeting things about the trips people were making in the build-up to games, he hasn't really said much specifically about the football team at all in the last five or six weeks. Certainly not after games and that stands out because when it's not football related, Del Conte has made a real effort throughout the last month to celebrate his team's performances in multiple sports.
What does it all mean? I suppose it would be impossible to completely pinpoint with any kind of true accuracy, but the silence speaks volumes from my perspective. Not a Trick or Treat reference. Not wishing them a safe travel home. Not a thank you to the fans that made the trip to Stillwater in the middle of a pandemic and led what might end up being a very memorable Eyes of Texas after the game. Not a simple "attaboy" for Ossai after a performance that made him the Walter Camp Defensive Player of the Week?
Sometimes what a person won't say or do is more revealing than what he actually says and does. Sometimes.
No. 3 - Ossai's performance put into perspective ...
This Tweet really put Joseph Ossai's performance from Saturday night into perspective. He did to Oklahoma State what Ndamukong Suh did to Texas back in the 2009 Big 12 Championship game.
lol.
Say no more.
I've spent a lot of time since the game ended trying to think of a better individual defensive performance for the Longhorns.
Earl Thomas once went nuclear against Oklahoma in 2009 with seven tackles, two TFL, an INT, four PBU and a forced fumble. It went lost in the aftermath of Colt McCoy's injury, but Sergio Kindle's game against Alabama in the national championship game (eight tackles, 2.5 sacks and four TFL) was an all-timer that warrants remembering. Brian Orakpo once threw down seven tackles, two sacks, four TFL, two pressures and a forced fumble against No. 1 Oklahoma.
Those were the three games that came to mind when I was thinking about performances that warranted side by side comparison, but then I started wondering whether Derrick Johnson ever had a better game.
The answer?
Nope. Johnson won a ton of Player of the Week awards in his career, including the Nagurski Award's National Defensive Player of the Week as a junior in 2003 when he recorded 11 tackles, a forced fumble, four pressures and four TFLs against No. 12 Nebraska, but even that game doesn't quite come close. Johnson also had an 18-tackle game against Oklahoma State as a senior, but it didn't include any of the game-changing havoc that Ossai produced last night.
Beyond that, my memory is getting foggy when trying to think of games that compare to Ossai's performance, let alone one that included a walk-off sack.
It is the new standard for all other Texas defensive players to chase.
No. 4 - Best moment of Tom Herman's life?
I'm going to say that this absolutely ranked very high. Full transparency - I've never crowd surfed.
No. 5 - The rest of the schedule...
We can all debate what fate awaits this Texas team in the final four games of this season, but here's a snapshot of the quarterback play that looms.
Have played: (No.1) Spencer Rattler, (No.3) Max Duggan, (No.6) Alan Bowman and (No.8) Charlie Brewer.
Have not played: (No.5) Jarrett Doege, (No.7) Will Howard, (No.8) Brock Purdy and (No.9/10) Miles Kendrick/Jalon Daniels
Note: Spencer Sanders would rank No. 2 with a 164 rating if he had enough attempts to qualify.
No. 6 - Rethinking the Big 12 Race ...
The league is an absolute free-for-all. Let's take a look at the remaining schedules of the teams
Iowa State (4-1): vs. Baylor, vs. Kansas State, at Texas and vs. West Virginia
Kansas State (4-1): vs. Oklahoma State, at Iowa State, at Baylor and vs. Texas
Oklahoma State (3-1): at Kansas State, at Oklahoma, vs. Texas Tech, at TCU and at Baylor
Oklahoma (3-2): vs. Kansas, vs. Oklahoma State, at West Virginia and vs. Baylor
West Virginia (3-2): at Texas, vs. TCU, vs. Oklahoma and at Iowa State
Quick breakdown: Oklahoma looks like a team that is about to run the table when you look at its remaining schedule. With the Cowboys playing four out of five on the road, it looks like to my naked eye that the winner of the Iowa State/Texas game will play the Sooners in the title game. Kansas State and West Virginia are pretenders with the remaining schedule, so when you look at the trio of Texas, Oklahoma State and Iowa State, the Longhorns would have a huge leg up on both on paper at this juncture with a win over the Cyclones at home.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) This coaching staff isn't hunting for a featured back. I think we'll continue to see a rotation of multiple backs each week.
(Buy) There certainly wasn't a meltdown over the weekend.
(Sell) I'm iffy on that, but getting rid of the guy after a potential 6-game winning streak that would get in the game sounds very unlike the Texas I've grown to know well.
(Sell) Whatever we all think of Kerstetter at center, just know that the staff is terrified of what is apparently behind him.
(Buy) This is the mostly likely answer.
(Buy) This is the most likely answer.
(Sell) I think that stuff has started going around lately and I've seen or heard zero proof of it.
(Sell) I think the fan base has him rated properly. He's possibly the best "very good but not quite great" quarterback in school history.
(Buy) I didn't think he looked 100 percent yesterday, at least in terms of mobility. I think the way Sam plays the game, he's always got something that could put him on an injury report.
(Sell) I say sell, but it gave me serious reason for pause.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the world of sports ...
... D'Onta Foreman not only played in an NFL regular season game on Sunday for the first time since the final week of the 2018 season, but he had 37 yards on five carries against the Bengals as Derrick Henry's top back-up. Well done, D'Onta.
... I really don't know how to handicap the Clemson/Notre Dame game with Trevor Lawrence out with COVID, but I think I still favor the Tigers. I think we might see Travis Etienne's true national coming out party.
... Notre Dame feels like the least-talked about and least impressive undefeated No. 4 team in the country through six games that I can remember in a while.
... Alabama's closest game so far this season is a 63-48 win at Ole Miss.
... How important is recruiting? I could make a case right now that if Texas had landed Garrett Wilson in recruiting, it would be 6-0 and hovering near the top five. If that guy (11 receptions for 111 yards at Penn State and 18 receptions for 240 yards and a touchdown in two games this season) was healthy and in the Texas line-up, Texas beats OU and TCU in my mind because his talent in the Texas passing game would significantly matter.
... Cincinnati has a chance to make the playoff. How big of a chance? I'm not sure, but they have a chance. That is my Magic Johnson Tweet-level comment of this column.
... Tip of the cap to Jimbo Fisher. I didn't see this coming.
... Yes, @RLong68, I thought of you when Michigan lost to Michigan State this weekend.
... I'm not sure how a Daryl Morey/Elton Brand front office is going to work in Philadelphia, but whatever happens, staying with a pat hand feels like the last thing on the table.
... I miss having playoff baseball to watch.
... Weekend Soccer Thoughts: Just keep grabbing those three points, Liverpool. Thank goodness for Diogo Jota through the first seven games of the season. On behalf of the rest of the Premier League, please Manchester United, keep Ole around forever. Hated to see Christian Pulisic go down with a hamstring issue in the pre-game. It feels like he and Jordan Whittington might be related. Burley might be going down.
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Sean Connery movies ...
A true giant of the film industry died over the weekend when Sean Connery passed away at the age of 90 in his sleep in the Bahamas.
I can't say that I'm an expert on his complete rolodex of movies, but here's a stab at my personal rankings of his movies.
10. The Rock
9. Time Bandits
8. Indiana Jones and the Lost Crusade
7. The Man Who Would Be King
6. Dr. No
5. Finding Forrester
4. From Russia With Love
3. The Hunt For Red October
2. The Untouchables
1. Goldfinger
On other thing, I learned this weekend that Connery was in the Mr. Universe contest back in 1953. If you didn't know, now you know like I do.
p.s. Why is he holding a sword? No matter, rest in peace, forever our true 007.
No.10 - And finally ...
I just wanted to give everyone a heads up that we're planning something for the end of the month that will serve as a follow-up to the auctions I had via my own private stash of stuff in an effort to raise money for an Orangebloods family in need.
Over the course of the next few weeks, @OBRob and I will be putting together a week's worth of auctioning that will see all of the money go into the hands of other needy Orangebloods families going into the holidays. Our goal is to try to provide some relief to those in our Orangebloods family that could use some financial help, while hopefully putting a few smiles on kids' faces in the process.
If you're interested in donating an item to our auction list, please reach out to either Rob or anyone on the Orangebloods staff. We'll keep you updated in the coming weeks on what we've got planned.
