As scary as the place I'm about to take you might be, I'm going to take you there anyway.
Prepare for the darkness.
I'm about to take you inside my brain.
On the morning of this week's recording of The TicketCity Podcast, I found my mind drifting into the idea of what has been discussed a lot recently, which was Tom Herman and Co. needing to lean on immediate instant bad mamma-jamma results this season in the final months of the 2021 recruiting process in an effort to swing the final major recruiting decisions of the recruiting year in UT's favor (it was the featured topic in
today's Sunday Pulpit, if you haven't seen it already ...).
Well, earlier on this particular morning, I had seen a couple of Texas and Texas A&M Twitter folks engaged in a back and forth of Longhorns/Aggie antics related to football ineptitude and it briefly occurred to me how utterly insane it must look from the outside looking in to see two fan bases sucked into the vortex of a decade (or more) run of awful football and yet the attitude from one another towards the other would suggest that bragging about the lowest possible form of higher ground should probably bring with it a certain form of self-awareness, yet it never seems to.
But, I digress ...
Now this next part is dirty, so prepare yourself.
I channeled my inner-Aggie and asked myself if any of this sounded familiar.
"If we start 5-0, recruiting can change. Momentum will change. It's not too late. The prospects are really just dying for the Aggies to give them a reason to be Aggies."
Dear Lord, my inner-Aggie has heard those words before. These are the comments I've been reading on the TexAgs, AggieYells and Aggie Websiders of the world for literally the last 23-25 years.
I was pretty spooked. My goodness, had the set of events that Texas football has itself placed into entering the 2020 season really left all of us in a position where we're acting like a bunch of Aggies with our thinking? Honestly, I started thinking about the entire concept of this idea, when it happened and when it became obvious that it was the playbook in need out of absolute necessity.
One of two things occurred to me.
a. I wanted to make the odds of probability as transparent as possible. Just because we're talking about the Hail Mary as an option on the final play of the game doesn't mean that we're endorsing the idea that it will actually work. It occurred to me that I didn't want any perceived blood on my hands over the inability to openly explain in detail the mathematical probability of what we're describing as a possible option.
b. If Herman and Co. pull this off in October and follow it up with a historic level recruiting run, he deserves the spoils that come from such a coup. Too many people will try to move the goalposts in February and I want to declare for the record right now that if Texas goes 5-0 to start the season and cleans up with the overwhelming majority of its top remaining targets, what they'll have accomplished deserves to be remembered for the rest of time as a standalone great turnaround in the history of the program.
Fast-forward about an hour later and I'm in the middle of recording our weekly podcast when the subject is being discussed by the entire Orangebloods staff.
In a moment of obvious rare hyperbole, I compared the mathematical plight of the situation to the odds connected to Luke blowing up the Death Star in Star Wars when you consider the odds associated with needing to pull off going 5-0 ... in a pandemic ... at a time when your staff has less than ideal personal relationships with a lot of targets ... and then maximizing the start by winning essentially every key remaining target in recruiting, whether they've committed to other schools between now and then or not.
For what might have been the first time ever, I was on the wrong end of a McComas/Suchomel tag-team of opinion that I was crazy for thinking that the odds were so tall.
In a moment that I'm going to blame on my rustiness as a communicator with my mouth following seven weeks of being wired shut with a broken jaw (Yes, I just played the "Broken Jaw Card”), I simply couldn't properly convey the thoughts in my head. Somehow, we fell into the minutiae of discussing the difficulty involved with doing nothing other than flipping kids AFTER you've gone 5-0 to start the season and two things happened.
a. I was accused of being a podcast bully by a handful of listeners.
b. I don't know that my larger point ever completely landed.
THEREFORE, BECAUSE THESE ARE THE TEDIOUS HILLS I CHOOSE TO DIE ON ...
I will plow forward with the goal of accomplishing the two things that I set my mind to while spacing out to the idea of Texas football prior to the podcast in the first place.
No. 2 - Let's start with the idea of going 5-0 in the first five games ...
Let's just break my points into two different points, starting with the mathematical side of going 5-0 to start the season.
If we break the win probabilities for the first five games of the season down to something incredibly friendly, it might look a little something like this:
vs. South Florida - 98-percent
at LSU - 50-percent
vs. UTEP - 98-percent
at Kansas State - 75-percent
vs. Oklahoma - 50-percent
Even if you believe LSU and Oklahoma are rightful coin-flips, there's only a 25-percent chance of sweeping both from a probability standpoint.
The odds of going 5-0 with those five games handicapped through completely burnt orange lenses?
18-percent.
While that's an inflated number from what I believe the true number likely looks like (probably 10-percent ballpark), I'm ok with using it because I believe it will eventually help make my point.
No. 3 - Handicapping recruiting with a 5-0 start ...
One of the difficulties in play for the Longhorns is that the program probably needs the majority of its top targets to just hold out as long as possible.
From now until the Longhorns could even get to mid-October (more than four months away), Herman and Co. will need to avoid decisions being made by the likes of the Brockermeyer brothers, Camar Wheaton, Bryce Foster and Shemar Turner to pledge elsewhere.
However much everyone wants to imagine a world where Texas is undefeated through five games, having just one of the top five guys (all in my LSR Top 10 rankings) I have ranked on their recruiting board commit to another school before then will without question make pulling off the task of sweeping the board more difficult.
For instance, if Camar Wheaton committed to another school in August and was eight weeks away from signing with the school he committed to, what would the percentages look like?
50-50?
I can't tell if that's too high or too low, which means that it might be a fair number at that point.
If so, the odds of going BOTH 5-0 and flipping a committed player like (potentially) Wheaton suddenly becomes 9-percent if we use the 18-percent number from the section above (or five-percent if we use the number I believe actually exists).
Before we add in the percentages of any other prospect's recruitment, we're already at single digits and facing 10-1 odds at best when discussing Texas pulling off the heist it so dearly wants to pull off in December.
If we keep plugging away, we're talking about something taller than 15-1 odds, which is pretty ironic because those are also the same odds given to a three-star prospect when we discuss the notion of that prospect eventually turning into a drafted NFL player.
Time really is a flat surface.
No. 4 - No guts, no glory ...
As crazy as it sounds and as unlikely as the math makes the situation from a probability standpoint ...
a. I can still see Texas going 5-0 (I can also see them going 3-2)
b. I can see Texas sweeping most of the board if it goes 5-0.
Therefore, while going out of the way to point out that we're talking about a 5-percent at best situation, I have to confess that it doesn't feel like a 5-percent situation, but that might just be the thing that people in 5-percent situations tell themselves in order to for the reality of the 95-percent likelihood of failure to take over their brain.
IF... IF... IF... Herman pulls it off, let's call it right now for the rainmaker that it will be, which is one of the most incredible program turnarounds in the history of college football with regards to both season and recruiting in the modern history of the sport.
In reaching out to Rivals.com's Mike Farrell over the weekend, he confirmed that no school he could think of over the course of an hour facing the circumstances that Texas is facing and succeeding has ever occurred.
Yes, as
The Sunday Pulpit shows, you might point to a team like Miami or LSU in 2017 as somewhat similar examples, but the reality is that Miami signed only a half-dozen players for the heralded 2018 class that finished second in the nation after the program started the season 5-0, and none of those six were ranked higher than a mid-four star and four of the six were three-stars. Meanwhile, LSU closed that class after a 5-0 start with three national top 50-75 prospects, but with two of the three, the Tigers were considered the betting favorite in those recruitments before the 2017 season even began.
The circumstances facing this program, which had 70-percent turnover in the coaching staff five months ago and is stuck working through a pandemic, have never been climbed in the history of college football.
If Herman pulls it off, like so many people in the program are confident of being able to do so, then he deserves the biggest attaboy we can all offer him from a respect standpoint.
We're not going to move the goal posts. I'm declaring five to seven months in advance that Herman pulling off a 5-0 start and flipping recruiting on its head to the point that the Longhorns land the likes of the Brockermeyer brothers, Wheaton, Foster, Savion Byrd and Turner as one of the most significant marker moments in the history of the program.
To the victor, go the spoils.
No. 5 - About the Brockermeyer brothers ...
Man, I'd give a nickel to be able to pick their unprotected thoughts on their recruitments.
On one hand when you look at things, you've got a program in Texas that is flowing through the blood of their parents. Forget about Tommy and James' recruitments for a moment and just focus on everything else. This family bleeds burnt orange.
On the other hand, I'm not sure that Texas would be in the picture if it weren't for the legacy component of their recruitments.
On one hand, the Brockermeyers seem to be giving Texas every chance to win them over.
On the other hand, what is it that Herman and Herb Hand can show the family that it doesn't already know? The Brockermeyers already have a brother/son in the program and yet there's a sense that Texas still has to prove a few things to everyone involved. It feels like there's something we should take note of from a symbolism standpoint, but I don't know.
Add it all up and it's a recruitment unlike anything I've ever seen before.
It leaves me with two questions.
a. Would the Brockermeyer brothers really need to see Texas sweep LSU and Oklahoma in order to believe in Herman's program enough to commit their lives and long-term development to him or would beating LSU be enough?
b. They've seen the Texas program more up close and personal than anyone could hope to see leading up to a decision. What is the elephant in the room here on what's holding up what should be a slam dunk decision on paper?
No. 6 - Dry as the Sahara ...
The Longhorns made some news on Sunday when Herman offered Camar Wheaton's teammate
Ikechukwu Iwunnah, who is a 5.5 level three star in the Rivals rankings and probably counts Baylor as his best offer outside of the Longhorns.
While, some might think this is just an attempt at creating a deeper foundation for the recruitment of Wheaton, I'd offer a couple of additional thoughts ...
a. There are exactly two in-state defensive tackles ranked in the state Top 100 -
Texarkana Pleasant Grove's Marcus Burris (No. 17) and DeSoto's Byron Murphy (No. 78).
b. Outside of those two players, there are only four other ranked defensive tackle prospects in the state of Texas that even have offers and Iwunnah is the only one of those four to have a Big 12 offer.
Therefore, if you're Texas and you're depending on in-state talent to drive the train right now at the defensive tackle position moving forward, you have to lean on what the state gives you, which just isn't very much in 2021 recruiting.
Iwunnah might be a nice card to play in Wheaton's recruitment if they end up landing the 6-3, 240-pound prospect, but in reality he's just the next guy up in the state's limited pecking order.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) LSU, Oklahoma, TCU and Oklahoma State are the games on the schedule that are worrisome in my mind.
(Sell) Somewhere between 25- and 50-percent.
(Sell) Oklahoma vs. the winner of Texas/Oklahoma State in Stillwater.
(Sell) They are closing hard because they can.
(Buy) I think we're going to be watching him earn potential All-Big 12 Player of the Year status in what could be his final season in Austin.
(Sell) I so badly wanted to buy this question, but I just can't.
(Buy) I'm all in Duvernay emerging as a star in Baltimore.
(Sell) I'm not sure a Texas running back gets there in 12 games.
(Sell) I don't have him in the top two.
(Sell) Nah, he'll be back easily.
(Buy) Yup.
(Buy) Absolutely. It's why they were hired.
(Sell) I don't believe Lawrence is the best quarterback to come out since Aaron Rodgers. Not even close.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the world of sports ...
... I'm guessing Michigan won't be joining the SEC any time soon with this kind of attitude towards the upcoming football season...
... Rest in peace, Jerry Sloan. He was a man's man and a dear soul at the same time. We should all be so lucky to leave such legacies.
... I kind of missed the UFC this weekend.
... I digested another 5+ hours of live German soccer over the weekend. I'm like a drug addict. I can't decide who I want Liverpool to have more ... Kai Havertz or Timo Werner? I think Harvetz. The rest of Germany seems to think Werner. Twist my arm.
... Zero interest in the Tiger/Phil/Brady/Manning golf thing, at least when it started. But, I eventually caved and watched two hours of it.
... It hasn't even been a week, but I miss The Last Dance.
... Speaking of Michael Jordan...
... As a Dallas fan, I want nothing to do with Jamal Adams if it means getting rid of Michael Gallup. I am not stripping this team of its greatest team strength, even if it means a serious upgrade in the back end of the defense. This team's potential path to greatness is overwhelming teams with offensive firepower.
... How long do the European soccer leagues wait before deciding that college football's future model of housing games with 25-percent full capacity is the way to go?
No. 9 - The List: Ranking the best Dallas Cowboys of all-time NOT in the Hall of Fame ...
I'm not really sure why this popped into my head over the weekend, but it's the kind of random thing that my brain specializes in, so here we go ...
(Players that have played inside the last five seasons are not eligible)
10. Nate Newton (Note: I'm a dummy that forgot Gil Brandt had been named last year.)
9. Ed "Too Tall" Jones
8. Chuck Howley
7. Harvey Martin
6. Lee Roy Jordan
5. Erik Williams
4. Cornell Green
3. Everson Walls
2. Drew Pearson
1. Darren Woodson
No.10 - And finally...
I don't know why, but this just felt like the perfect way to end this week's column.
