Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (Oh, the hills I choose to die on...)

[satterwm]

Im pretty sure that he is correct. It is 50% I should know. I took the 1st third of statistics 4 times before I passed it the 5th. I got the basics down pretty well. The rest. Not so much.

You missed on the basics too my friend.

The concept of mutual exclusivity you are referring to does not relate to what Ketch is saying. It means no matter the previous outcomes, the chances on the next SINGLE flip doesn't change.

 

[Charlie Work]

Mack's head was in a weird place when they did the HCIW.

It was like someone that had never thought about retiring being told they could act like they were about to retire and he just lost his way inside navigating it.

yup, he wasn't cut out for that mind set...never being a grinder like a Saban always meant he never had that wiggle room and that was the difference between 2 loss teams & 5 loss teams.
.

 

[jspirohorn]

I blame Mack for changing the offense when Gilbert arrived. That Bama loss gave him PTS for years. He just couldn’t snap out of it. He lost his identity and way after that at Texas.

Gilbert played in a gun spread system in HS and you put him under center to play in a physical rush attack/PA pass system? What’s even more funny is Saban changed his philosophy to more spread concepts.

Made zero sense then and makes even less now. I don’t know how Gilbert would have done if that hadn’t happened but I know it wasn’t something he was used to. He couldn’t have been.

Gilbert didn’t play well but he wasn’t exactly set up for success either.

Enough excuses for Garrett Gilbert. He sucked from the very first moment he stepped onto the field until the moment he was yanked 15 games later. His dad convinced Mack to chase away every QB prospect a year ahead or in his class. He quit the team 3 days after losing his job for good. Good riddance.

 

[RTR]

And was very fast without being undersized for that era.

Now Leroy Jordan as a 195 lb. Mike LB......

So true- to me, his, LeeRoy Jordan‘s and Drew Pearson’s omissions from the HOF need to be rectified.. Woodson’s day will come soon enough too I hope

 

[satterwm]

So true- to me, his, LeeRoy Jordan‘s and Drew Pearson’s omissions from the HOF need to be rectified.. Woodson’s day will come soon enough too I hope

Bear Bryant always said from coaching him at Alabama that as long as a back stayed in bounds that Leroy Jordan would get em.

 

[Iceman]

Recruiting is almost always over the last half of a season.

Typically, your on-field results impact the season after the results, not the season during the results.

That's what Texas is trying to change in a historical, against the odds situation.

You'd know more than me. But, I haven't noticed it playing out that way. For instance, Texas was 7-5 in 2018, then signed the #4 class the following season. Did Texas sign the #4 class b/c of 7-5 the season before or b/c of 10-3 and a Top 10 finish in the season during which those recruits signed? The year after that outstanding class and a Top 10 seasons, Texas started strong in recruiting, then the season fell apart with 4 losses in the last 7 games, resulting in 6 or so key decommitments. They ended up with the #13 class in the country. I've observed the same play out for LSU over the recent years.

It seems to me that the season prior gives your class momentum, but the season in which those recruits sign determines whether you maintain that momentum and finish strong, or lose that momentum and suffer a string of decommitments. The damage to the 2021 class has already been done by the 2019 season. But, I see Texas stealing some key recruits and putting together a great class if if has an outstanding season, especially if it closes the season on a 6-0 or 7-0 run.

 

[North Texas Golfer]

@Ketchum or anyone else, tell me if this is right.

If our odds against both Ou and LSU are 50%, then
1. The odds of beating both are 25%.
2. The odds of splitting are 50%.
3. The odds of losing both are 25%.

 

[Ketchum]

Your communication on the Cowboys doesn't seem obligated to carry a chip on your shoulders.

I can introduce you to an army of Cowboys fans that disagree.

Of course, in one situation... I'm a reporter. In the other... I'm a fan.

 

[Ketchum]

@Ketchum or anyone else, tell me if this is right.

If our odds against both Ou and LSU are 50%, then
1. The odds of beating both are 25%.
2. The odds of splitting are 50%.
3. The odds of losing both are 25%.

correct.

 

[wfoot]

Ketch, I think you need to get out more.

 

[Ketchum]

Ketch, I think you need to get out more.

I mean... yeah.

 

[Napaak]

Missouri State - 99%
Tenn - 90%
Army - 90%
Baylor - 90%
Texas - 65%

That is a 47% chance of going 5-0.

didn’t you put the Texas game at 50/50 in your post? Idc if they have Lincoln, Rattler isn’t a favorite vs Sam.

 

[Ketchum]

didn’t you put the Texas game at 50/50 in your post? Idc if they have Lincoln, Rattler isn’t a favorite vs Sam.

I put that so that no one would argue that the math needed to be favored towards Texas.

I don't think Vegas or computers would call it a 50-50 game.

 

[McGuapo]

per rogan and Dana that is a lot talk and not a lot of action. That fight isn’t happening unless ngannou wins title eventually.

jones dosent want that fight despite his social media stance per rogan

Jon is posturing I’m sure, but the UFC has a history of this behavior, so I wouldn’t buy what Dana says, at all.

 

[Ketchum]

Jon is posturing I’m sure, but the UFC has a history of this behavior, so I wouldn’t buy what Dana says, at all.

kinda what I was thinking. Don't trust anyone when the only people to trust are untrustworthy.

 

[bbussell1]

The Aggy behavioral comparison for us really stings, but I've been thinking the same for a while now. Nobody can Aggy like Aggy, but we are definitely exhibiting some Aggy traits. As examples:

1. Consistently thinking a bunch of our guys are better than the rest of the football world thinks they are, including the NFL.

2. Always talkinyg about Clemson, Bama, Ohio St. etc. in context of comparing ourselves to them ... we aren't on the same level and haven't been for a decade.

3. Unrealistic "wishful thinking" discussions about how great things could work out for us, even though the track record of those scenarios coming through has been near zero percent for a decade.

We need to stop acting like Aggy. Accept our mediocrity like men without excuses. Limit the ridiculous wishful thinking chatter and focus on grinding our way back to prominence over years which starts with beating Baylor, TCU etc. showing we can coach up 3 * recruits and putting our top athletes in the NFL year after year.

 

[Ketchum]

The Aggy behavioral comparison for us really stings, but I've been thinking the same for a while now. Nobody can Aggy like Aggy, but we are definitely exhibiting some Aggy traits. As examples:

1. Consistently thinking a bunch of our guys are better than the rest of the football world thinks they are, including the NFL.

2. Always talkinyg about Clemson, Bama, Ohio St. etc. in context of comparing ourselves to them ... we aren't on the same level and haven't been for a decade.

3. Unrealistic "wishful thinking" discussions about how great things could work out for us, even though the track record of those scenarios coming through has been near zero percent for a decade.

We need to stop acting like Aggy. Accept our mediocrity like men without excuses. Limit the ridiculous wishful thinking chatter and focus on grinding our way back to prominence over years which starts with beating Baylor, TCU etc. showing we can coach up 3 * recruits and putting our top athletes in the NFL year after year.

I'd like this post 1,000 times if I could.

 

[BGTexasExe]

If I flip a coin twice, what are the odds that it hands on heads both times?

Got me.

50% each coin flip is 50%, the percentages don’t change based on number of flips. It’s always 50%

 

[satterwm]

@Ketchum or anyone else, tell me if this is right.

If our odds against both Ou and LSU are 50%, then
1. The odds of beating both are 25%.
2. The odds of splitting are 50%.
3. The odds of losing both are 25%.

Yes, there are 2 ways of splitting, 1 way of losing both, 1 way of winning both- 4 combinations that make up the denominator.

 

[Ketchum]

50% each coin flip is 50%, the percentages don’t change based on number of flips. It’s always 50%

using this logic, you'd tell me that the odds of a flipping a coin in the air 100 times and having it land on heads 100 times is really a 50-percent chance.

 

[McGuapo]

kinda what I was thinking. Don't trust anyone when the only people to trust are untrustworthy.

Correct, but I have no doubt Jon would ask for more money to take that fight, as would I. You want me to go up a weight class (and not a normal weight class) and fight the scariest man in the division that kills guys with one touch? Yeah, I’m not gonna take the standard deal on that. Assuming that and knowing how they treated Demetrious Johnson, who was in a similar situation as a dominant champion being asked to move up, it wouldn’t surprise me that they just told Jon they wouldn’t restructure.

 

[Ketchum]

Correct, but I have no doubt Jon would ask for more money to take that fight, as would I. You want me to go up a weight class (and not a normal weight class) and fight the scariest man in the division that kills guys with one touch? Yeah, I’m not gonna take the standard deal on that. Assuming that and knowing how they treated Demetrious Johnson, who was in a similar situation as a dominant champion being asked to move up, it wouldn’t surprise me that they just told Jon they wouldn’t restructure.

Jones isn't reckless. He ain't trying to be Cowboy.

 

[BGTexasExe]

using this logic, you'd tell me that the odds of a flipping a coin in the air 100 times and having it land on heads 100 times is really a 50-percent chance.

I would say that if you flipped a coin and it landed on heads, the next flip would be a 50% chance that it lands on heads, and if it did, your next flip would be 50% that it lands on heads. Every flip is 50%. It is just how statistics and probability works.

 

[McGuapo]

Jones isn't reckless. He ain't trying to be Cowboy.

Right. The answer to 9 out of 10 questions is money. When they say it isn’t about the money, it’s about the money.

 

[liturgical orange]

You missed on the basics too my friend.

The concept of mutual exclusivity you are referring to does not relate to what Ketch is saying. It means no matter the previous outcomes, the chances on the next SINGLE flip doesn't change.

Well, there you have it. I was a sympathy pass!

 

[CoachBobbyFinstock]

Enough excuses for Garrett Gilbert. He sucked from the very first moment he stepped onto the field until the moment he was yanked 15 games later. His dad convinced Mack to chase away every QB prospect a year ahead or in his class. He quit the team 3 days after losing his job for good. Good riddance.

Coaches have a responsibility to put players in a situation to be successful.

You think Vick, Vince Young etc. need to be in a west coast or pro style of offense? No that’s stupid.

I’m not a Gilbert apologist but to discount that would be disingenuous.

 

[liturgical orange]

Nope.

Bob always was in the wrong hole...

 

[RTR]

Bear Bryant always said from coaching him at Alabama that as long as a back stayed in bounds that Leroy Jordan would get em.

think he also maintained up to his death that Jordan was the best player he’d ever coached... I saw LeeRoy at a restaurant in Dallas with Cliff Harris and their families sometime after LRJ had retired - he looked like he weighed about 175 then.. guess he was tired of being a big old fatso

 

[BGTexasExe]

What ketch is doing wrong is that he is saying there are 4 potential outcomes, but there are only 2 outcomes in two different instances. Another way of looking at it is from averages. (.5+.5)/2=.5

 

[satterwm]

The Aggy behavioral comparison for us really stings, but I've been thinking the same for a while now. Nobody can Aggy like Aggy, but we are definitely exhibiting some Aggy traits. As examples:

1. Consistently thinking a bunch of our guys are better than the rest of the football world thinks they are, including the NFL.

2. Always talkinyg about Clemson, Bama, Ohio St. etc. in context of comparing ourselves to them ... we aren't on the same level and haven't been for a decade.

3. Unrealistic "wishful thinking" discussions about how great things could work out for us, even though the track record of those scenarios coming through has been near zero percent for a decade.

We need to stop acting like Aggy. Accept our mediocrity like men without excuses. Limit the ridiculous wishful thinking chatter and focus on grinding our way back to prominence over years which starts with beating Baylor, TCU etc. showing we can coach up 3 * recruits and putting our top athletes in the NFL year after year.[/QUI know I beat this drum too much, but

The Aggy behavioral comparison for us really stings, but I've been thinking the same for a while now. Nobody can Aggy like Aggy, but we are definitely exhibiting some Aggy traits. As examples:

1. Consistently thinking a bunch of our guys are better than the rest of the football world thinks they are, including the NFL.

2. Always talkinyg about Clemson, Bama, Ohio St. etc. in context of comparing ourselves to them ... we aren't on the same level and haven't been for a decade.

3. Unrealistic "wishful thinking" discussions about how great things could work out for us, even though the track record of those scenarios coming through has been near zero percent for a decade.

We need to stop acting like Aggy. Accept our mediocrity like men without excuses. Limit the ridiculous wishful thinking chatter and focus on grinding our way back to prominence over years which starts with beating Baylor, TCU etc. showing we can coach up 3 * recruits and putting our top athletes in the NFL year after year.

Even though I so like the throw-back toughness of the "no excuses, no explanations" Tony Dungee attitude, I'll over- beat my drum in an effort to offset the third rail aspect of the entire subject of cheating in CFB recruiting...… the likeness and image changes that are coming will expose the biggest reason teams excel in recruiting beyond what is logical.

 

[satterwm]

Well, there you have it. I was a sympathy pass!

Nothing wrong with that!

 

[donoseven]

This is maybe the most surprising thing I have read from you in a decade. I figured as someone who is a fan of the biggest stars in the game doing their thing you would be all over it. Throw in the fact that they were mic'd up and Charles was one of the commentators? I wish they would do these things every off-season.

Watched the whole thing from beginning to end (because what else are you going to do). It sucked that it rained on them, but I found it somewhat entertaining... the golf was so-so, but the personalities were fun to watch. Chuck giving Brady shit and then Brady dropping one in from 100 yards was perfect. Peyton is a character, Phil is a mad scientist and Tiger was the most subdued. Not sure if I would watch on a normal weekend, but I enjoyed it and they raised $20M for charity. Glad I watched.

 

[sodiumacetate]

Watched the whole thing from beginning to end (because what else are you going to do). It sucked that it rained on them, but I found it somewhat entertaining... the golf was so-so, but the personalities were fun to watch. Chuck giving Brady shit and then Brady dropping one in from 100 yards was perfect. Peyton is a character, Phil is a mad scientist and Tiger was the most subdued. Not sure if I would watch on a normal weekend, but I enjoyed it and they raised $20M for charity. Glad I watched.

I just thought it was a great set-up, with the personalities and the teammates that were not pro golfers but were still pretty good. The rain took away a bit but the access to the golfers was great.

I agree I wouldn't watch these all the time, but once or twice a year would be perfect.

 

[Ketchum]

I would say that if you flipped a coin and it landed on heads, the next flip would be a 50% chance that it lands on heads, and if it did, your next flip would be 50% that it lands on heads. Every flip is 50%. It is just how statistics and probability works.

Yes, every individual coin flip is 50-percent. Good grief.

 

[satterwm]

What ketch is doing wrong is that he is saying there are 4 potential outcomes, but there are only 2 outcomes in two different instances. Another way of looking at it is from averages. (.5+.5)/2=.5

Although it's getting to the point where all of us are somewhat manufacturing things to talk about, Ketch's math was fine from the footage I saw.