Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (Oh, the hills I choose to die on...)
- Thread starter Ketchum
- Start date
didn’t you put the Texas game at 50/50 in your post? Idc if they have Lincoln, Rattler isn’t a favorite vs Sam.
I put that so that no one would argue that the math needed to be favored towards Texas.
I don't think Vegas or computers would call it a 50-50 game.
Jon is posturing I’m sure, but the UFC has a history of this behavior, so I wouldn’t buy what Dana says, at all.
kinda what I was thinking. Don't trust anyone when the only people to trust are untrustworthy.
The Aggy behavioral comparison for us really stings, but I've been thinking the same for a while now. Nobody can Aggy like Aggy, but we are definitely exhibiting some Aggy traits. As examples:
1. Consistently thinking a bunch of our guys are better than the rest of the football world thinks they are, including the NFL.
2. Always talkinyg about Clemson, Bama, Ohio St. etc. in context of comparing ourselves to them ... we aren't on the same level and haven't been for a decade.
3. Unrealistic "wishful thinking" discussions about how great things could work out for us, even though the track record of those scenarios coming through has been near zero percent for a decade.
We need to stop acting like Aggy. Accept our mediocrity like men without excuses. Limit the ridiculous wishful thinking chatter and focus on grinding our way back to prominence over years which starts with beating Baylor, TCU etc. showing we can coach up 3 * recruits and putting our top athletes in the NFL year after year.
1. Consistently thinking a bunch of our guys are better than the rest of the football world thinks they are, including the NFL.
2. Always talkinyg about Clemson, Bama, Ohio St. etc. in context of comparing ourselves to them ... we aren't on the same level and haven't been for a decade.
3. Unrealistic "wishful thinking" discussions about how great things could work out for us, even though the track record of those scenarios coming through has been near zero percent for a decade.
We need to stop acting like Aggy. Accept our mediocrity like men without excuses. Limit the ridiculous wishful thinking chatter and focus on grinding our way back to prominence over years which starts with beating Baylor, TCU etc. showing we can coach up 3 * recruits and putting our top athletes in the NFL year after year.
50% each coin flip is 50%, the percentages don’t change based on number of flips. It’s always 50%
Yes, there are 2 ways of splitting, 1 way of losing both, 1 way of winning both- 4 combinations that make up the denominator.
using this logic, you'd tell me that the odds of a flipping a coin in the air 100 times and having it land on heads 100 times is really a 50-percent chance.
Correct, but I have no doubt Jon would ask for more money to take that fight, as would I. You want me to go up a weight class (and not a normal weight class) and fight the scariest man in the division that kills guys with one touch? Yeah, I’m not gonna take the standard deal on that. Assuming that and knowing how they treated Demetrious Johnson, who was in a similar situation as a dominant champion being asked to move up, it wouldn’t surprise me that they just told Jon they wouldn’t restructure.
I would say that if you flipped a coin and it landed on heads, the next flip would be a 50% chance that it lands on heads, and if it did, your next flip would be 50% that it lands on heads. Every flip is 50%. It is just how statistics and probability works.
Right. The answer to 9 out of 10 questions is money. When they say it isn’t about the money, it’s about the money.
Well, there you have it. I was a sympathy pass!You missed on the basics too my friend.
The concept of mutual exclusivity you are referring to does not relate to what Ketch is saying. It means no matter the previous outcomes, the chances on the next SINGLE flip doesn't change.
Coaches have a responsibility to put players in a situation to be successful.
You think Vick, Vince Young etc. need to be in a west coast or pro style of offense? No that’s stupid.
I’m not a Gilbert apologist but to discount that would be disingenuous.
think he also maintained up to his death that Jordan was the best player he’d ever coached... I saw LeeRoy at a restaurant in Dallas with Cliff Harris and their families sometime after LRJ had retired - he looked like he weighed about 175 then.. guess he was tired of being a big old fatso
What ketch is doing wrong is that he is saying there are 4 potential outcomes, but there are only 2 outcomes in two different instances. Another way of looking at it is from averages. (.5+.5)/2=.5
Even though I so like the throw-back toughness of the "no excuses, no explanations" Tony Dungee attitude, I'll over- beat my drum in an effort to offset the third rail aspect of the entire subject of cheating in CFB recruiting...… the likeness and image changes that are coming will expose the biggest reason teams excel in recruiting beyond what is logical.
Nothing wrong with that!Well, there you have it. I was a sympathy pass!
Watched the whole thing from beginning to end (because what else are you going to do). It sucked that it rained on them, but I found it somewhat entertaining... the golf was so-so, but the personalities were fun to watch. Chuck giving Brady shit and then Brady dropping one in from 100 yards was perfect. Peyton is a character, Phil is a mad scientist and Tiger was the most subdued. Not sure if I would watch on a normal weekend, but I enjoyed it and they raised $20M for charity. Glad I watched.
I just thought it was a great set-up, with the personalities and the teammates that were not pro golfers but were still pretty good. The rain took away a bit but the access to the golfers was great.
I agree I wouldn't watch these all the time, but once or twice a year would be perfect.
Although it's getting to the point where all of us are somewhat manufacturing things to talk about, Ketch's math was fine from the footage I saw.
I would have to disagree we had "loads of talent". Watching the playoffs and the NFL draft was pretty telling. Those teams were not like ours. I will agree that LSU kept getting better and better as the year progressed. We digressed after LSU and Oklahoma.
I agree now but prior to the season we had the talent to expect to win the conference and maybe a playoff birth as well as Sam in the Heisman picture. Later on as the season progressed we showed well against LSU and we are flying high in the rankings. We fell apart soon thereafter.
Wanted to add a little more to the thought that 7 of the last 8 coaches to take a team to a natty did it by year 4.
Only 2 coaches in the last 20 years or so has inherited a losing team (using the previous 3 years) and won a natty within 2-4 years of taking over. And only 1 of those inherited a worse team than Tom Herman did.
That could be telling us one of these 2 things.
1. Tom Herman could win a natty within the next 2-4 years.
2. If he doesn't, the next coach could win a natty within the next 2-4 years after he takes over.
