Ewers never had the calm. It was a hole in his game in HS and I don't think it ever truly got significant improvement.
Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Permission to dream REALLY big?)
- Thread starter Ketchum
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Ewers never had the calm. It was a hole in his game in HS and I don't think it ever truly got significant improvement.
Thanks for the kind words. It felt good when I was writing it. When you've written thousands of these columns, you know when they standout a little from the pack. I thought today's column did. No one else anywhere wrote this column or probably could. I love when I feel like that as a writer/creator.
Quinn did not have a better game than Klubnik when they played. Klubnik was so good in that game that the Texas DBs and coaches basically gave him his flowers and said sometimes the other guy you play is just better than you on that day. I don't think Ewers ever threw the ball at Texas as well as Ewers did that day. We'll see if he can replicate it over and over moving forward. Ewers was not a better college quarterback than Milroe. He was just a guy and he was lucky to be surrounded by NFL talent or that might be more apparent.
Fair on the Avs. Butl 7 straight!?!
Every skill guy has one and they are all mostly enablers who are clouded by confirmation bias.Not me… I’m team anonymous trainer.
Ketch
First thing I thought when seeing your percentages for drafted players before I read further - "But Ketch always says low four stars are basically the same has high 3 stars for chances of getting in the league." - see some of us are listening to your preachings.
We need to enjoy Willie while we still have him. He is one of the most gifted singer/songwriters in history.
Yessir. All written back before Willie truly became Willie, but all timeless. At my age, when it comes to music and Austin in general, old school brings back great memories.
I am sure you have heard the story about how Willie tried to sell the song rights for Hello Walls to Faron Young when Willie was down on his luck a little and Young told Willie he would not buy the rights, but he would loan Willie some money instead. What a classy thing that was!
I'll be honest when I tell you from the jump that I believe the 2026 season is the one.
Not only will Arch Manning and Colin Simmons likely be entering their final seasons of college football as possibly the best players in the sport on both sides of the ball, but a sophomore class that is almost as large as the current combined junior and senior classes will have emerged into upperclassmen.
So many of the smaller issues that the team faces simply shouldn't exist in 12 months. All of the inexperience in the skill positions will be replaced by a group that could return every single starter and major contributor. Hell, even the defensive tackle position looks potentially loaded a year from now, which is hard to fathom after the scramble jobs in the Portal in the last 18 months.
Sprinkle in a few more dynamic impact contributors from the Portal in December, January and next April, and you have the makings of an obvious national championship favorite going into the 2026 season.
Yet, while I'm strong in my view that the 2026 version of Steve Sarkisian's Texas Longhorns will be a better outfit than the 2025 Longhorns, there's an elephant in the room about this year's team that I'm going to acknowledge right here and now ... as much as I'm salivating over the thought of the 2026 Longhorns, I can't find anyone in college football that I like more than the slightly more flawed version of the 2025 Longhorns. For the first time ever I'm going to say something I've never said about Texas football going into any single season in my life ...
Back-to-back titles are in very, very, very serious play.
Along with the Longhorns, Ohio State and Georgia are the two most talented teams in college football, but both have serious quarterback questions. The Buckeyes are wildly talented at the position, but also wildly inexperienced. If Julian Sayin is the man in Columbus at the end of August, his first career snap as a collegiate player will be against one of the best defenses in college football. Meanwhile, the Dawgs are rolling with Gunner Stockton and there's zero proof that he's even any good.
You can't win a national title in this sport if you're mid at the most important position on the field, and both of those programs are very mid at the moment.
I'd contend the other three teams in college football that most look like national title contenders are the following: Notre Dame, Oregon and Penn State. Of those three programs, ESPN literally lists the quarterback position as the No. 1 weakness for both Notre Dame and Oregon going into the season. As for the Nittany Lions, all they have is a guy in Drew Allar who is the poster boy of the sport in 2025 for overhype given to the most average performer.
All of these teams are going to be very good, but the collective group of Sayin, Stockton, Dante Moore, whoever the hell Notre Dame rolls out and Allar aren't even slightly on the level of Will Howard, Carson Beck, Dillon Gabriel, Riley Leonard and Allar. It's probably a more talented group, but it's not immediately close to being better.
Meanwhile, I fully expect the Longhorns to not only improve at the quarterback position in 2025, but I expect Arch Manning to be in New York in December for that little trophy ceremony that Vince Young was robbed of 20 years ago.
I'm not ready to say that I'm picking Texas to win the national title this season, but there's not one team that I would definitely take over them.
Texas has Manning. These other contenders do not. Only two of them truly have rosters that are as good as the one Sarkisian has built. It all adds up to Texas being a rightful pre-season No. 1, even if it looks to be a stronger pre-season No. 1 the following season.
In Arch Manning, I trust.
Clearly.
No. 2 – First Impressions ...
On Saturday morning, I found myself thinking back to five years ago when I released the opening version of my 2022 LSR Top 100 list and detailed my first official scouting view of Quinn Ewers following his sophomore season.
Three things stood out in my memory about what happened ...
1. Everyone and their momma had Ewers as the No. 1 prospect in the state and expectations existed that I would do the same.
2. I was much, much cooler on him as a prospect from a physical tools standpoint than anyone dared to suggest.
3. Some of the commentary that came from subscribers was more than a little harsh.
My curiosity led me to look for the thread ... and here it is.
Here's what I wrote on 6/4/20:
"There's a thing that I kept coming back to and found it impossible to get away from - I don't have Southlake Carroll's Quinn Ewers in my Top 10. The same Ewers that is ranked as a 6.0 four-star prospect in the Rivals rankings and is the No. 1 ranked player in the state in the 247 rankings. The same Ewers that has 28 offers and is currently the only quarterback that the Longhorns have offered in the Lone Star State in his class.
It's not that I don't have a high opinion or value of Ewers. It's just that the more I've watched of him in the last few weeks, the more and more I just don't think I'd rate him above a guy like Hudson Card or even Ja'Quindon Jackson from last season. While Ewers' touch is unmatched among his peers, he's not a prospect that is going to wow you with his ability to step into a throw and make your head snap. Everything is very, very smooth, but he's more of a national top 100 player than a national top 25.
From a playing standpoint, he's a five-star, but from a physical tools standpoint, I think he's a four-star, which is why he's ranked where he is in this first set of rankings.
Three things.
a. I'm absolutely willing to concede I'm wrong here. Believe me, I've got some self-doubt about being out on a limb by myself here. The kid's highlight film is about three hours long.
b. From a player comparison standpoint, he kind of reminds me of J.T. Daniels. If he's in the right offense, this is a guy that could throw for 10,000 career yards and not even blink. I wouldn't be shocked if he went somewhere and had a Graham Harrell-like career.
c. I have stay true to myself and not be a sellout to myself because I think I'm going to get tomatoes thrown at me over a strong opinion."
Other than the part about Card/Jackson ... which I later corrected ... I'm kind of ok with everything that I said coming out of his sophomore season. The truth of the matter is that Ewers never had 5-star physical tools. Never. The groupthink kicked in and ridicule awaited anyone who suggested that he wasn't a generational talent, but he never was.
Honestly, it would have been awesome if I had been even just a smidge more wrong.
On another note, this often gets forgotten, but I was the first person to rank Kelvin Banks as a 5-star. Here's what I wrote ...
"I love the offensive linemen in this class. I especially love Oklahoma State commitment Kelvin Banks, who I have ranked No. 2 in the state behind Harris.
First of all, his film is ridiculous. In my mind, I was looking at a top 2-5 player in the state, but again I found myself on an island that no one else in the industry is remotely close to joining me on, but then I saw this on Wednesday.
I've watched this clip countless times. Going up against a total bad-ass in Tunmise Adeleye, Banks actually gets knocked off balance by Adeleye's power from his hips, but Banks' ability to re-balance himself and re-gain control of Adeleye to the point where he wins the rep is low-key special stuff. Hell, when it's over, Adeleye can't do anything but give Banks some love for his rep. That kid isn't going to Oklahoma State. He's way too big-time for that."
No. 3 – Speaking of that 2022 class ...
What a year at the top. When my eventual final rankings came out and Ewers was reclassified to 2021, the top six were all rated as 5-stars and it looked like this:
1. QB Cade Klubnik (Clemson)
2. OL D.J. Campbell (Texas)
3. CB Denver Harris (Texas A&M)
4. WR Evan Stewart (Texas A&M)
5. LB Harold Perkins (LSU)
6. OL Kelvin Banks (Texas)
Banks is a first-rounder. Klubnik is on his way to being a top 5 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Perkins would have been a first-round pick last week had he not torn his ACL last season.
Stewart and Campbell will both play in the NFL. Harris might have been a first-round pick if he could get out of his own way, which he couldn't/can't.
That's going to be a historically salty top 6.
It's up there with 2001 (Tommie Harris, Derrick Johnson, Cedric Benson, Jonathan Scott, Ben Wilkerson, Quan Cosby and Cedric Griffin were all in my Top 10). and 2017 (Walker Little, Baron Browning, Jeffrey Okudah, K'Lavon Chaisson, Ceedee Lamb, J.K. Dobbins and Austin Deculus were all in my top 10) off the top of my head.
No. 4 - Yes, I Did My Thing ...
You know I wasn't going to let an NFL Draft go by without my annual numbers crunching. I'm not going to beat you over the head this year. There are just a few things to pass along.
I'll say it over and over and over again. When you sign a 5-star guy, you're not just getting a more likely than not future NFL player, but you're getting someone who is nearly 12X more likely to be a first-round pick than a run of the mill Rivals 250/4-star prospect and more than 30X more likely to be a first-round pick than any 3-star
The high 4-stars had a bad year at the top of the draft when compared to the usual levels of production, bunching it closer together with the rest of the 4-stars than the 5-stars.
These numbers are within a few percentage points of the typical numbers we see produced on an annual basis with the exception of a single tier ... the 5.8 low 4 stars. That group produced drafted players at double the rate from just two years ago, which seems to indicate a one-year anomaly from two years ago. Still, the low 4-stars producing at a level with the higher-rated mid 4-stars (5.9) makes me think that group might be potentially a tick higher from a value standpoint than I have recently considered them. In a lot of years, there's not always much difference between the low 4 stars and the high 3 stars when it comes to draft production, but that was not the case this year.
Something to keep in mind next year when we get another set of datapoints to work with.
No. 5 – You know you might have a problem if ...
The Longhorns picked up a commitment from a long-snapper on Friday and I spent way too much time thinking about the dynamics of how the decision to offer a high school deep-snapper when you consider that ...
a. Texas has offered scholarships to high school deep snappers only twice in the last 40 years, both times under Jeff Banks' watch in the last five years.
b. The player that Texas offered (Trott O'Neal) has only one other offer ... from Air Force.
c. Until Texas offered O'Neal, the only other power conference programs that have offered a deep snapper a scholarship in the 2026 recruiting cycle are UCLA and Cal.
d. In the national deep snapper rankings (Yes, those exist), the Longhorns offered the No. 6 player in the rankings. When the Longhorns took Lance St. Louis in the 2022 recruiting class, he was ranked No. 1 in the same national rankings.
I just found myself asking a bunch of questions.
* Is this a Steve Sarkisian decision?
* Is this a general manager discussion with regards to roster management/scholarship allocation?
* Does Sarkisian give Banks carte blanche control of the special teams, no questions asked?
* If you're going to offer a scholarship to a deep snapper (which I am not against!), why not offer the best proven deep snappers from the collegiate ranks, especially since so few are on scholarship?
* If you're going to offer a scholarship to a high school deep snapper, why not offer the highest-ranking player in his class?
* What is the success rate of highly ranked high school deep snappers?
* Does Banks fancy himself as one of the best evaluators of deep snapping in the country?
* Why can't the same walk-on program that has produced the likes of Cullen Loeffler and Nate Boyer, and hasn't produced a single deep snapper issue since ... maybe 1999 ... continue to handle the heavy lifting?
* Is this a sign that Sarkisian and Co. are convinced that the 85-man scholarship number in 2025 will move up to 105 in 2026 or the following season?
* Am I insane for giving all of this discussion this much consideration?
It should be noted that the decision to take St. Louis in the Class of 2022 looks like a sneaky smart move when you consider that he'll finish as a four-year starter and isn't someone that most of the fan base even knows because he's never messed up in a way that would make him noticeable.
Also, it should be noted that we don't live in a world where these scholarship offers are truly four-year commitments unless your name is Max Merrill. If you're not good and you're not playing, you're almost certainly not going to be on the roster for the long haul. There's not currently a single junior or senior on the roster who isn't a starter or on the two-deep, so the investment cost is mostly minimal.
I'm just fascinated by the process involved behind these types of decisions. Is this the optimal approach? The optimal approach should be ... the chosen approach, right?
Anyways, this is where my mind roams on the weekends. Hell, who am I kidding? This is where my mind roams on any day that has the word day in it.
I need help and I also might be asking questions worthy of asking. The two things are not mutually exclusive.
No. 6 - Texas Football Scattershooting ...
... Last week, I wrote the following of the back-up quarterback situation in this column: "The battle at backup quarterback is going to be interesting to watch behind the scenes. Both Trey Owens and KJ Lacey have fans in the building." That followed word I had received earlier in the week that Lacy was taking reps at No. 2 at the end of the spring and that Owens had been less impressive than the vibe around camp had suggested. The same source had actually told me the team was going to sign a quarterback in the Portal, but we kind of dismissed it behind the scenes after a little discussion/vetting. Doh! Yes, the same source deservingly sent me a DM around 2:30 p.m. with an "I told you" reply.
... The addition of Troy transfer QB Matthew Caldwell gives the quarterback room some much-needed experience after going 3-2 as a starter for a very good offensive team in Troy. He's good enough to drive the bus, but he's not Sandy Bullock in Speed. He's not good enough that he was going to win the starting job this year at Troy, but he is good enough to be the Sun Belt Player of the Week if called upon. This also has to serve as a wake-up call to the very talented Owens. They didn't bring Caldwell in to challenge Manning ... or KJ Lacy for that matter. They brought him in to challenge for the No. 2 job. There's some pause for Owens going into the season if needed in a game that matters in four months. That's a move you make when you are a little unsure and want a one-year insurance policy.
... Quinn Ewers' agent Ron Slavin told ESPN.com he reached out to "half the league" to find out what happened with the seventh-round slide ... "They thought he was a third- or fourth-round pick, but too big of a name to be a clipboard holder," Slavin said. "Which I think is chickenshit."
The idea that a league starving for quarterback play let a second-day talent just slip into the territory of the almost undrafted literally defies the purpose that the draft serves for teams. I'm not buying it. Also, isn't this a suggestion from Ewers' agent that his client didn't profile well as a dude in pre-draft meetings? Too big of a name? Huh? Ewers didn't win the Heisman. He wasn't even all-SEC. How on earth was he too big of a name to be a clip-holder? The only way he'd be too big of a name to be a clip-holder is if Ewers himself thought he was too big for that. Is that what NFL teams thought? Is that what Slavin is unintentionally telling us?
... I don't know about the rest of you, but I will absolutely watch the hell out of the second half of every single Dolphins pre-season game in August. I'm absolutely fascinated by Ewers' training camp.
... I was kind of disappointed to hear that none of the young cornerbacks seemed to take a true significant step forward that would put them in a position to challenge for a starting job. That's not to say a bunch of guys didn't play well. I just haven't heard that anyone took the BIG step.
... Matthew Golden is going to wear No. 22 for the Packets ... how very Bob Hayes-ish of him. I kind of like it.
No. 7 - Sometimes you're the hammer and sometimes you're the hammered ...
Not much to say about what happened in Fayettenam this weekend for the soon-to-be-former No. 1 team in the country.
Momma always said there would be weekends like this and it seems like everyone in the SEC has caught the same level of shrapnel at some point this season. It was Texas' turn this weekend.
Personally, I think a really good team being humbled just a little bit can be a really good thing for late-season refocusing. Ohio State just won a football title after losing its regular-season finale. The UConn women's basketball team got drop-kicked by double-digits at Notre Dame. The Florida basketball team that just won its national title took it a step further when it lost by 20 on the road in Knoxville.
See the trend? Stuff happens. That's the trend. The best teams use these little speed bumps as teachable moments.
Oh, and with six SEC games to play, the Longhorns still have a two-game lead in the standings.
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Buy) The product will be great, but there's no getting away from the steaming pile of garbage that is the home slate. Hey, at least Arkansas comes to town ...
(Sell) Why on earth wouldn't Texas get credit for developing Mitchell and Golden? They were solid starters at their other schools and turned into difference makers under Texas coaching.
(Buy) Maybe twice.
(Buy/Buy) It can't be much worse than the vibe that existed last season.
(Sell) If someone didn't already know about the importance of home-field advantage, I doubt they suddenly grasped the concept over the weekend simply because it was in their face. I see people ignore stuff in their face for sport every day.
(Buy) Over 12 regular games, I say no. If Texas plays 16 or 17 games ...
(Buy) It will be tempting no matter the team if the consensus after the season is that he will be the No. 1 overall pick.
(Buy) Has to happen.
(Sell) I might have Volleyball in the No. 2 spot.
(Buy) I was always more concerned about the offensive line.
(Sell) He doesn't warrant being mentioned in the same breath at this point.
(Buy) Nope. I'll take my chances with Arch.
No. 9 – Scattershooting all over the place …
... James Harden going 2-of-8 from the floor, two free throw attempts, 7 points and a -29 plus/minus in a game 7 is so cliche that it almost feels over-cliched ... almost.
... The Colorado Avalanche is the James Harden of professional teams, as it became the only MLB/NBA/NHL franchise to ever lose seven consecutive game sevens in the playoffs after losing to the Stars on Saturday night. That's hard-core, man.
... What a moment, indeed.
... Bill Belichick is 73 years old. If this is what he's going to be like at 73, what are we in store for when he hits 83? Isn't this all just a peek into what happens next?
... Premier League Randomness: GIVE ME ALL THE GUARD OF HONOURS!!!!!!!!!!!! Even if it means the foootball that follows is a pile of poop. Arsenal have the same number of wins (18) this season in the league as Chelsea and Forest, while having fewer than City and Newcastle (19). Aston Villa still feels like a sneaky team to watch in these final three weeks. I think City catches and passes Arsenal for 2nd. No pressure on Forest on Monday... How in the world is one of either Man United and Tottenham going to be in the Champions League? I was really, really impressed with Romeo Lavia on Sunday. All of the love that was going to Cole Palmer should have gone to him.
... Congrats, Harry Kane. Try not to undercut anyone during the trophy lift!
... Austin FC ... can we just pretend that Saturday night never happened? Yes? Thanks.
... Justin Leonard playing on the Seniors Tour has me feeling really old this weekend. The next thing you'll be telling me is that the character who played Gabby in Beverly Hills 90210 is 64 years old ...
... I just can't seem to get into the UFC right now. I don't totally know what happened.
... Shout out to one of San Antonio's finest! Happy birthday!
No. 10 - The List: Top 10 Willie ...
Every once in a while, I'll hear a Willie Nelson track and that's my week. I'm all-in. When it happens, I have to update my Willie rankings, which are forever evolving over the years.
I'm breaking the songs into four categories: Best written songs, best unwritten songs, best duets and then a pure Top 10. I'm sure there won't be any disagreements. LFG!!!
Best Written
10. Time of the Preacher
9. I Still Can't Believe You're Gone
8. Funny How Time Slips Away
7. Sad Songs and Waltzes
6. Night Life
5. Hello Walls
4. On The Road Again
3. Me and Paul
2. Angel Flying Too Close to the Ground
1. Crazy
Non-Written
10. Blue Skies
9. Can I Sleep in Your Arms
8. The Last Thing I Needed First Thing Morning
7. My Heroes Have Always Been Cowboys
6. Georgia on My Mind
5. City of New Orleans
4. Whiskey River
3. A Song For You
2. Always on My Mind
1. Blue Eyes Crying in the Rain
Duets
10. Highwayman (with The Highwaymen)
9. Have You Ever Seen The Rain (with Paula Nelson)
8. The Year That Clayton Delaney Died (with Waylon Jennings
7. Are There Any More Real Cowboys (with Neal Young)
6. Desperados Waiting For a Train (with The Highwaymen)
5. Heartland (With Bob Dylan)
4. Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up To Be Cowboys (With Waylon Jennings)
2. Good Hearted Woman (With Waylon Jennings)
2. Pancho and Lefty (With Merle Haggard)
1. Seven Spanish Angels (With Ray Charles)
Top 10 Overall
Last 5 out: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up To Be Cowboys. Hello Walls, Me and Paul, On The Road Again and Night Life
10. City Of New Orleans
9. Good Hearted Woman
8. A Song For You
7. Angel Flying Too Close to the Ground
6. Whiskey River
5. Always on My Mind
4. Pancho and Lefty
3. Seven Spanish Angels
2. Blue Eyes Crying In The Rain
1. Crazy
You got the #1 duet right, It just might be my #1 overall. I'd flip Pancho and Lefty with Good Hearted Woman. Nice List
I watched a Rick Beato interview with him a while back and it was great. I couldn’t believe he was in his early 70s because he looks fairly young.
Also, underrated guitar player. He has some chops but it was never truly featured on the albums.
Other than "Just needs more experience including high pressure scenarios like opening against tOSU" - Do you see any weaknesses or deficiencies in Arch's game (Note - I don't view average as a weakness)?
Glad you aren’t leading recruiting at Texas! I love Gunnar’s game and play but making an apples point from an orange discussion is folly.
I'll be honest when I tell you from the jump that I believe the 2026 season is the one.
Not only will Arch Manning and Colin Simmons likely be entering their final seasons of college football as possibly the best players in the sport on both sides of the ball, but a sophomore class that is almost as large as the current combined junior and senior classes will have emerged into upperclassmen.
So many of the smaller issues that the team faces simply shouldn't exist in 12 months. All of the inexperience in the skill positions will be replaced by a group that could return every single starter and major contributor. Hell, even the defensive tackle position looks potentially loaded a year from now, which is hard to fathom after the scramble jobs in the Portal in the last 18 months.
Sprinkle in a few more dynamic impact contributors from the Portal in December, January and next April, and you have the makings of an obvious national championship favorite going into the 2026 season.
Yet, while I'm strong in my view that the 2026 version of Steve Sarkisian's Texas Longhorns will be a better outfit than the 2025 Longhorns, there's an elephant in the room about this year's team that I'm going to acknowledge right here and now ... as much as I'm salivating over the thought of the 2026 Longhorns, I can't find anyone in college football that I like more than the slightly more flawed version of the 2025 Longhorns. For the first time ever I'm going to say something I've never said about Texas football going into any single season in my life ...
Back-to-back titles are in very, very, very serious play.
Along with the Longhorns, Ohio State and Georgia are the two most talented teams in college football, but both have serious quarterback questions. The Buckeyes are wildly talented at the position, but also wildly inexperienced. If Julian Sayin is the man in Columbus at the end of August, his first career snap as a collegiate player will be against one of the best defenses in college football. Meanwhile, the Dawgs are rolling with Gunner Stockton and there's zero proof that he's even any good.
You can't win a national title in this sport if you're mid at the most important position on the field, and both of those programs are very mid at the moment.
I'd contend the other three teams in college football that most look like national title contenders are the following: Notre Dame, Oregon and Penn State. Of those three programs, ESPN literally lists the quarterback position as the No. 1 weakness for both Notre Dame and Oregon going into the season. As for the Nittany Lions, all they have is a guy in Drew Allar who is the poster boy of the sport in 2025 for overhype given to the most average performer.
All of these teams are going to be very good, but the collective group of Sayin, Stockton, Dante Moore, whoever the hell Notre Dame rolls out and Allar aren't even slightly on the level of Will Howard, Carson Beck, Dillon Gabriel, Riley Leonard and Allar. It's probably a more talented group, but it's not immediately close to being better.
Meanwhile, I fully expect the Longhorns to not only improve at the quarterback position in 2025, but I expect Arch Manning to be in New York in December for that little trophy ceremony that Vince Young was robbed of 20 years ago.
I'm not ready to say that I'm picking Texas to win the national title this season, but there's not one team that I would definitely take over them.
Texas has Manning. These other contenders do not. Only two of them truly have rosters that are as good as the one Sarkisian has built. It all adds up to Texas being a rightful pre-season No. 1, even if it looks to be a stronger pre-season No. 1 the following season.
In Arch Manning, I trust.
Clearly.
No. 2 – First Impressions ...
On Saturday morning, I found myself thinking back to five years ago when I released the opening version of my 2022 LSR Top 100 list and detailed my first official scouting view of Quinn Ewers following his sophomore season.
Three things stood out in my memory about what happened ...
1. Everyone and their momma had Ewers as the No. 1 prospect in the state and expectations existed that I would do the same.
2. I was much, much cooler on him as a prospect from a physical tools standpoint than anyone dared to suggest.
3. Some of the commentary that came from subscribers was more than a little harsh.
My curiosity led me to look for the thread ... and here it is.
Here's what I wrote on 6/4/20:
"There's a thing that I kept coming back to and found it impossible to get away from - I don't have Southlake Carroll's Quinn Ewers in my Top 10. The same Ewers that is ranked as a 6.0 four-star prospect in the Rivals rankings and is the No. 1 ranked player in the state in the 247 rankings. The same Ewers that has 28 offers and is currently the only quarterback that the Longhorns have offered in the Lone Star State in his class.
It's not that I don't have a high opinion or value of Ewers. It's just that the more I've watched of him in the last few weeks, the more and more I just don't think I'd rate him above a guy like Hudson Card or even Ja'Quindon Jackson from last season. While Ewers' touch is unmatched among his peers, he's not a prospect that is going to wow you with his ability to step into a throw and make your head snap. Everything is very, very smooth, but he's more of a national top 100 player than a national top 25.
From a playing standpoint, he's a five-star, but from a physical tools standpoint, I think he's a four-star, which is why he's ranked where he is in this first set of rankings.
Three things.
a. I'm absolutely willing to concede I'm wrong here. Believe me, I've got some self-doubt about being out on a limb by myself here. The kid's highlight film is about three hours long.
b. From a player comparison standpoint, he kind of reminds me of J.T. Daniels. If he's in the right offense, this is a guy that could throw for 10,000 career yards and not even blink. I wouldn't be shocked if he went somewhere and had a Graham Harrell-like career.
c. I have stay true to myself and not be a sellout to myself because I think I'm going to get tomatoes thrown at me over a strong opinion."
Other than the part about Card/Jackson ... which I later corrected ... I'm kind of ok with everything that I said coming out of his sophomore season. The truth of the matter is that Ewers never had 5-star physical tools. Never. The groupthink kicked in and ridicule awaited anyone who suggested that he wasn't a generational talent, but he never was.
Honestly, it would have been awesome if I had been even just a smidge more wrong.
On another note, this often gets forgotten, but I was the first person to rank Kelvin Banks as a 5-star. Here's what I wrote ...
"I love the offensive linemen in this class. I especially love Oklahoma State commitment Kelvin Banks, who I have ranked No. 2 in the state behind Harris.
First of all, his film is ridiculous. In my mind, I was looking at a top 2-5 player in the state, but again I found myself on an island that no one else in the industry is remotely close to joining me on, but then I saw this on Wednesday.
I've watched this clip countless times. Going up against a total bad-ass in Tunmise Adeleye, Banks actually gets knocked off balance by Adeleye's power from his hips, but Banks' ability to re-balance himself and re-gain control of Adeleye to the point where he wins the rep is low-key special stuff. Hell, when it's over, Adeleye can't do anything but give Banks some love for his rep. That kid isn't going to Oklahoma State. He's way too big-time for that."
No. 3 – Speaking of that 2022 class ...
What a year at the top. When my eventual final rankings came out and Ewers was reclassified to 2021, the top six were all rated as 5-stars and it looked like this:
1. QB Cade Klubnik (Clemson)
2. OL D.J. Campbell (Texas)
3. CB Denver Harris (Texas A&M)
4. WR Evan Stewart (Texas A&M)
5. LB Harold Perkins (LSU)
6. OL Kelvin Banks (Texas)
Banks is a first-rounder. Klubnik is on his way to being a top 5 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Perkins would have been a first-round pick last week had he not torn his ACL last season.
Stewart and Campbell will both play in the NFL. Harris might have been a first-round pick if he could get out of his own way, which he couldn't/can't.
That's going to be a historically salty top 6.
It's up there with 2001 (Tommie Harris, Derrick Johnson, Cedric Benson, Jonathan Scott, Ben Wilkerson, Quan Cosby and Cedric Griffin were all in my Top 10). and 2017 (Walker Little, Baron Browning, Jeffrey Okudah, K'Lavon Chaisson, Ceedee Lamb, J.K. Dobbins and Austin Deculus were all in my top 10) off the top of my head.
No. 4 - Yes, I Did My Thing ...
You know I wasn't going to let an NFL Draft go by without my annual numbers crunching. I'm not going to beat you over the head this year. There are just a few things to pass along.
I'll say it over and over and over again. When you sign a 5-star guy, you're not just getting a more likely than not future NFL player, but you're getting someone who is nearly 12X more likely to be a first-round pick than a run of the mill Rivals 250/4-star prospect and more than 30X more likely to be a first-round pick than any 3-star
The high 4-stars had a bad year at the top of the draft when compared to the usual levels of production, bunching it closer together with the rest of the 4-stars than the 5-stars.
These numbers are within a few percentage points of the typical numbers we see produced on an annual basis with the exception of a single tier ... the 5.8 low 4 stars. That group produced drafted players at double the rate from just two years ago, which seems to indicate a one-year anomaly from two years ago. Still, the low 4-stars producing at a level with the higher-rated mid 4-stars (5.9) makes me think that group might be potentially a tick higher from a value standpoint than I have recently considered them. In a lot of years, there's not always much difference between the low 4 stars and the high 3 stars when it comes to draft production, but that was not the case this year.
Something to keep in mind next year when we get another set of datapoints to work with.
No. 5 – You know you might have a problem if ...
The Longhorns picked up a commitment from a long-snapper on Friday and I spent way too much time thinking about the dynamics of how the decision to offer a high school deep-snapper when you consider that ...
a. Texas has offered scholarships to high school deep snappers only twice in the last 40 years, both times under Jeff Banks' watch in the last five years.
b. The player that Texas offered (Trott O'Neal) has only one other offer ... from Air Force.
c. Until Texas offered O'Neal, the only other power conference programs that have offered a deep snapper a scholarship in the 2026 recruiting cycle are UCLA and Cal.
d. In the national deep snapper rankings (Yes, those exist), the Longhorns offered the No. 6 player in the rankings. When the Longhorns took Lance St. Louis in the 2022 recruiting class, he was ranked No. 1 in the same national rankings.
I just found myself asking a bunch of questions.
* Is this a Steve Sarkisian decision?
* Is this a general manager discussion with regards to roster management/scholarship allocation?
* Does Sarkisian give Banks carte blanche control of the special teams, no questions asked?
* If you're going to offer a scholarship to a deep snapper (which I am not against!), why not offer the best proven deep snappers from the collegiate ranks, especially since so few are on scholarship?
* If you're going to offer a scholarship to a high school deep snapper, why not offer the highest-ranking player in his class?
* What is the success rate of highly ranked high school deep snappers?
* Does Banks fancy himself as one of the best evaluators of deep snapping in the country?
* Why can't the same walk-on program that has produced the likes of Cullen Loeffler and Nate Boyer, and hasn't produced a single deep snapper issue since ... maybe 1999 ... continue to handle the heavy lifting?
* Is this a sign that Sarkisian and Co. are convinced that the 85-man scholarship number in 2025 will move up to 105 in 2026 or the following season?
* Am I insane for giving all of this discussion this much consideration?
It should be noted that the decision to take St. Louis in the Class of 2022 looks like a sneaky smart move when you consider that he'll finish as a four-year starter and isn't someone that most of the fan base even knows because he's never messed up in a way that would make him noticeable.
Also, it should be noted that we don't live in a world where these scholarship offers are truly four-year commitments unless your name is Max Merrill. If you're not good and you're not playing, you're almost certainly not going to be on the roster for the long haul. There's not currently a single junior or senior on the roster who isn't a starter or on the two-deep, so the investment cost is mostly minimal.
I'm just fascinated by the process involved behind these types of decisions. Is this the optimal approach? The optimal approach should be ... the chosen approach, right?
Anyways, this is where my mind roams on the weekends. Hell, who am I kidding? This is where my mind roams on any day that has the word day in it.
I need help and I also might be asking questions worthy of asking. The two things are not mutually exclusive.
No. 6 - Texas Football Scattershooting ...
... Last week, I wrote the following of the back-up quarterback situation in this column: "The battle at backup quarterback is going to be interesting to watch behind the scenes. Both Trey Owens and KJ Lacey have fans in the building." That followed word I had received earlier in the week that Lacy was taking reps at No. 2 at the end of the spring and that Owens had been less impressive than the vibe around camp had suggested. The same source had actually told me the team was going to sign a quarterback in the Portal, but we kind of dismissed it behind the scenes after a little discussion/vetting. Doh! Yes, the same source deservingly sent me a DM around 2:30 p.m. with an "I told you" reply.
... The addition of Troy transfer QB Matthew Caldwell gives the quarterback room some much-needed experience after going 3-2 as a starter for a very good offensive team in Troy. He's good enough to drive the bus, but he's not Sandy Bullock in Speed. He's not good enough that he was going to win the starting job this year at Troy, but he is good enough to be the Sun Belt Player of the Week if called upon. This also has to serve as a wake-up call to the very talented Owens. They didn't bring Caldwell in to challenge Manning ... or KJ Lacy for that matter. They brought him in to challenge for the No. 2 job. There's some pause for Owens going into the season if needed in a game that matters in four months. That's a move you make when you are a little unsure and want a one-year insurance policy.
... Quinn Ewers' agent Ron Slavin told ESPN.com he reached out to "half the league" to find out what happened with the seventh-round slide ... "They thought he was a third- or fourth-round pick, but too big of a name to be a clipboard holder," Slavin said. "Which I think is chickenshit."
The idea that a league starving for quarterback play let a second-day talent just slip into the territory of the almost undrafted literally defies the purpose that the draft serves for teams. I'm not buying it. Also, isn't this a suggestion from Ewers' agent that his client didn't profile well as a dude in pre-draft meetings? Too big of a name? Huh? Ewers didn't win the Heisman. He wasn't even all-SEC. How on earth was he too big of a name to be a clip-holder? The only way he'd be too big of a name to be a clip-holder is if Ewers himself thought he was too big for that. Is that what NFL teams thought? Is that what Slavin is unintentionally telling us?
... I don't know about the rest of you, but I will absolutely watch the hell out of the second half of every single Dolphins pre-season game in August. I'm absolutely fascinated by Ewers' training camp.
... I was kind of disappointed to hear that none of the young cornerbacks seemed to take a true significant step forward that would put them in a position to challenge for a starting job. That's not to say a bunch of guys didn't play well. I just haven't heard that anyone took the BIG step.
... Matthew Golden is going to wear No. 22 for the Packets ... how very Bob Hayes-ish of him. I kind of like it.
No. 7 - Sometimes you're the hammer and sometimes you're the hammered ...
Not much to say about what happened in Fayettenam this weekend for the soon-to-be-former No. 1 team in the country.
Momma always said there would be weekends like this and it seems like everyone in the SEC has caught the same level of shrapnel at some point this season. It was Texas' turn this weekend.
Personally, I think a really good team being humbled just a little bit can be a really good thing for late-season refocusing. Ohio State just won a football title after losing its regular-season finale. The UConn women's basketball team got drop-kicked by double-digits at Notre Dame. The Florida basketball team that just won its national title took it a step further when it lost by 20 on the road in Knoxville.
See the trend? Stuff happens. That's the trend. The best teams use these little speed bumps as teachable moments.
Oh, and with six SEC games to play, the Longhorns still have a two-game lead in the standings.
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Buy) The product will be great, but there's no getting away from the steaming pile of garbage that is the home slate. Hey, at least Arkansas comes to town ...
(Sell) Why on earth wouldn't Texas get credit for developing Mitchell and Golden? They were solid starters at their other schools and turned into difference makers under Texas coaching.
(Buy) Maybe twice.
(Buy/Buy) It can't be much worse than the vibe that existed last season.
(Sell) If someone didn't already know about the importance of home-field advantage, I doubt they suddenly grasped the concept over the weekend simply because it was in their face. I see people ignore stuff in their face for sport every day.
(Buy) Over 12 regular games, I say no. If Texas plays 16 or 17 games ...
(Buy) It will be tempting no matter the team if the consensus after the season is that he will be the No. 1 overall pick.
(Buy) Has to happen.
(Sell) I might have Volleyball in the No. 2 spot.
(Buy) I was always more concerned about the offensive line.
(Sell) He doesn't warrant being mentioned in the same breath at this point.
(Buy) Nope. I'll take my chances with Arch.
No. 9 – Scattershooting all over the place …
... James Harden going 2-of-8 from the floor, two free throw attempts, 7 points and a -29 plus/minus in a game 7 is so cliche that it almost feels over-cliched ... almost.
... The Colorado Avalanche is the James Harden of professional teams, as it became the only MLB/NBA/NHL franchise to ever lose seven consecutive game sevens in the playoffs after losing to the Stars on Saturday night. That's hard-core, man.
... What a moment, indeed.
... Bill Belichick is 73 years old. If this is what he's going to be like at 73, what are we in store for when he hits 83? Isn't this all just a peek into what happens next?
... Premier League Randomness: GIVE ME ALL THE GUARD OF HONOURS!!!!!!!!!!!! Even if it means the foootball that follows is a pile of poop. Arsenal have the same number of wins (18) this season in the league as Chelsea and Forest, while having fewer than City and Newcastle (19). Aston Villa still feels like a sneaky team to watch in these final three weeks. I think City catches and passes Arsenal for 2nd. No pressure on Forest on Monday... How in the world is one of either Man United and Tottenham going to be in the Champions League? I was really, really impressed with Romeo Lavia on Sunday. All of the love that was going to Cole Palmer should have gone to him.
... Congrats, Harry Kane. Try not to undercut anyone during the trophy lift!
... Austin FC ... can we just pretend that Saturday night never happened? Yes? Thanks.
... Justin Leonard playing on the Seniors Tour has me feeling really old this weekend. The next thing you'll be telling me is that the character who played Gabby in Beverly Hills 90210 is 64 years old ...
... I just can't seem to get into the UFC right now. I don't totally know what happened.
... Shout out to one of San Antonio's finest! Happy birthday!
No. 10 - The List: Top 10 Willie ...
Every once in a while, I'll hear a Willie Nelson track and that's my week. I'm all-in. When it happens, I have to update my Willie rankings, which are forever evolving over the years.
I'm breaking the songs into four categories: Best written songs, best unwritten songs, best duets and then a pure Top 10. I'm sure there won't be any disagreements. LFG!!!
Best Written
10. Time of the Preacher
9. I Still Can't Believe You're Gone
8. Funny How Time Slips Away
7. Sad Songs and Waltzes
6. Night Life
5. Hello Walls
4. On The Road Again
3. Me and Paul
2. Angel Flying Too Close to the Ground
1. Crazy
Non-Written
10. Blue Skies
9. Can I Sleep in Your Arms
8. The Last Thing I Needed First Thing Morning
7. My Heroes Have Always Been Cowboys
6. Georgia on My Mind
5. City of New Orleans
4. Whiskey River
3. A Song For You
2. Always on My Mind
1. Blue Eyes Crying in the Rain
Duets
10. Highwayman (with The Highwaymen)
9. Have You Ever Seen The Rain (with Paula Nelson)
8. The Year That Clayton Delaney Died (with Waylon Jennings
7. Are There Any More Real Cowboys (with Neal Young)
6. Desperados Waiting For a Train (with The Highwaymen)
5. Heartland (With Bob Dylan)
4. Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up To Be Cowboys (With Waylon Jennings)
2. Good Hearted Woman (With Waylon Jennings)
2. Pancho and Lefty (With Merle Haggard)
1. Seven Spanish Angels (With Ray Charles)
Top 10 Overall
Last 5 out: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up To Be Cowboys. Hello Walls, Me and Paul, On The Road Again and Night Life
10. City Of New Orleans
9. Good Hearted Woman
8. A Song For You
7. Angel Flying Too Close to the Ground
6. Whiskey River
5. Always on My Mind
4. Pancho and Lefty
3. Seven Spanish Angels
2. Blue Eyes Crying In The Rain
1. Crazy
Great read.
I take the signing of the deep snapper as an indication this staff believes/knows the roster is moving to 105 next year and they had a schoolyard this year to play with seeing as how the remaining portal is not very appealing. Maybe it is wishful thinking but it makes the most sense to me.
I think adding the experienced backup QB says that Sark thinks Trey isn’t quite as ready as Arch was last year when his number was called for Quinn’s injury. If Sark sees this season as another deep run season that could produce Championships (and he certainly should), I can also see some urge to find more experience at backup QB to hold down the fort if Arch has to miss a game or two. It isn’t necessarily a statement that Trey is a bust/JAG. (I know that isn’t what you were writing but many of the reactions seem to be leaping there)
If we go to a 105 roster I still like your idea of proven portal kickers. Unless your special teams coach is a kicking guru it makes no sense to try to grow your own when you can find proven players.
QE played pretty damn well. You are right Cade did go off on us though.
Cade: 7.8 yard average. 60% completion. 81.5 QBR
Quinn: 8.4 yard average. 71% completion. 87.5 QBR.
Quinn held his own.
Don't agree with your Milroe assessment.
Quinn was better in every passing statistic. Yards, yards per pass, pass %, TDs 31-12. QB rating. And Milroe actually lost some games for Bama. Cant say Quinn 'lost' any himself. He may not have won something he should have. Bama had NFL talent all around MIlroe too.
Just opinions, none of it matters now.
THat's not getting carried away.
He caught 12 as a fish in 13 games and was wide open and missed at least 10 other times.
Milroe was the best player on the field against Georgia in the SEC title game in 2023.
Also, it's not the stats from the Clemson game that props Klubnik up, it's the number of difficult throws he made against air tight coverage. He played like an NFL starter.
- Jan 14, 2011
- 31,302
- 96,316
- 113
I think the obvious thing we saw last year that he needs to clean up is just getting the ball out faster. He waited too long for things to open up and I think that he saw vs Georgia that you can’t do that against good defenses. I’m sure he will get it cleaned up.
Oh good grief.
It helps to not enter a game cold with a huddle full of underperforming players and against a team that was teeing off like a bunch of rabid dogs.
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