With Tom Herman and Co. using the bye week as an opportunity to welcome back a number of previously injured major contributors, it's presumed that the version of the Texas Longhorns he'll bring to DKR on Saturday against a 6-2 Kansas State squad will be a better version than the squads he brought to the table throughout the month of October.
That's a good thing because as the calendar flips from October to November, there's suddenly a layer of doubt that exists with regards to the job performance of Herman that didn't exist when the calendar flipped from September to October.
It's a hell of a thing a 2-2 record can create when you lose to Oklahoma, give up 48 points to a Kansas team that couldn't score two touchdowns against the same Wildcats team that will come to Austin this weekend and then find a way to allow a TCU freshman quarterback to make a mix-tape out of your defense when he has otherwise led his team to four losses in five games.
In an effort to not lose sight of the forest through the trees, I thought I would use the moment to take a big picture review of the program and Herman's overall body of worth through his first 1,071 days on the job. Along the way, we'll review where things stood when I did the exact same analysis following his first 100 days and 500 days on the job.
I'd like to call this a 1,000-day review because it sounds very nice and clean, but the truth is those extra 71 days since he'd been hired have changed quite a bit about the way people are currently rating him.
Therefore, the 1,071-day review will have to do.
Aspect by aspect, let's take a look at the state of this program now that Herman is knee-deep in year three of his project in Austin.
No. 2 - Team Building ...
What was being after 100 days: "I'm not going to BS, this was probably the most worrisome area of the program for most of 2017. I can probably count on two hands the number of players that weren't being mentioned as possible transfer candidates. For most of Herman's first season, he didn't have a happy locker room ... and blame doesn't really matter. It was what it was and heading into 2018, it seemed from my perspective the biggest single thing that needed addressing inside the program."
What was being said after 500 days: "The drama seems to have completely subsided. Whether it was the win in the bowl game, the departure of malcontents, something that Herman did in bowl workouts or some combination of all of those factors, the mood on the 40 Acres is seemingly so much lighter now than it was just a few short months ago. Cohesiveness hasn't occurred overnight, but things are trending in the right direction, which represents one of the best developments of the 2018 calendar year."
Where things stand today: Winning and losing are some kind of drugs because it seems like all it took was just a few slip ups on the schedule before leaks of disgruntled players started to emerge from the locker room after what seemed to be a completely unified program for the previous nine-plus months. What's interesting about what's happening now is that back in 2017 when Herman was dealing with an un-unified group of players, most of the angst came from Charlie Strong holdovers. Yet, what we've been catching wind of in the last month is rock-solid stability from the remainder of the Strong holdovers (Devin Duvernay, Collin Johnson, Malcolm Roach and Brandon Jones, for example), while a number of young players that Herman personally recruited seem less interested in staying the course.
For a coach that has stressed culture, culture and more culture since the very first day he arrived, Herman seems to have a locker room with enough doubt inside of it that it seems like Herman is being tasked with reasserting himself among a group of players that he shouldn't have to be concerning himself with, as it relates to "buy-in."
Personally, I'm chalking up some of this softness from within to the combination of youth and adversity, but all of this will warrant keeping a close eye on in the coming months.
No. 3 - Recruiting ...
What was being said in 2017: "The jury was out on Herman and his staff, mainly because many of the members of his new staff didn't have a reputation of being elite-level, proven recruiters. The general thinking was that the recruiting treasure would arrive for Herman and Co., but only if the results in the season would create the momentum needed. Hell, it was only 11 months ago when there was serious concern about the fact that the Longhorns hadn't received an in-state commitment by the time April rolled around"
What was being said in 2018: "Herman and his staff not only pulled in a consensus top-five class, but they did it in a way that many didn't think was possible ... no on-field momentum to serve as the launching pad for success. Instead, his staff buckled down, sold the future and recruited its collective butt off.
Herman and Co. dominated the state of Texas, landing eight of the state's top 11 prospects and half of the top 20. Along the way, they landed the top players in East Texas, San Antonio and four of the top five prospects in the Greater Houston area. They landed the state's top running back, wide receiver, defensive tackle, cornerback, safety and athlete.
Heading into the 2019 recruiting cycle, there are zero concerns about this staff's ability to recruit inside state borders. The only real area of concern at this point is the limited amount of success that the staff has had in the DFW area, which is an area that received less attention in 2018 than normal because it was such a strong year in the Greater Houston area and the majority of the staff's recruiting roots were planted in that area.
Where things stand today: Let's take a look at the various elements of the recruiting game.
I. In-state Recruiting
Herman and his staff have answered every question that has been asked of them since arriving from Houston, whether we're talking about the jump up for most of the staff to a power-five conference or competing in the most competitive recruiting landscape in the modern era of the sport or winning recruiting battles in the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex.
When you look at the current 2020 recruiting class, 15 of the program's 17 commitments hail from the Lone Star State.
As long as Herman and his staff can keep up the pace that they have created in the last 12 months or so, you'd have to give the entire staff incredibly high grades in this area of the program.
II. Out of State Recruiting
This staff has displayed zero fear in going out of state to address areas of recruiting when answers in-state haven't been found. For instance, Herman signed players from Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Iowa, Louisiana and Missouri in building a consensus top-5 class in 2019, and while the Longhorns aren't depending on out of state talent to such a large degree in 2020, the staff has still been able to land a five-star running back prospect from outside of its natural recruiting region.
Again, based on what we've seen so far from this staff, it would be impossible to give Herman and Co. anything but incredibly high grades because no Texas staff in history has ever done a better job of landing big-time talents in as many different places as this current staff has.
III. Multi-year focus
As I wrote in 2018, this was an area in which Mack Brown and Charlie Strong both struggled for different reasons, but their collective preference was to approach each class, one at a time. You just can't operate a successful major program in 2019 without being able to juggle multiple classes at the same time. It requires multi-level planning, advanced scouting and a tireless appetite for the grind.
It's an area where Herman and his staff have excelled, as evidenced by the fact that the 2020 class hasn't even put pen to paper and the Longhorns have a foundation for the 2021 class already in place that could eventually compete for a national recruiting championship if the staff can continue the momentum.
No. 4 - Player development...
From year to year and position group to position group, this seems to be an area of the program that lacks positive consistency.
Let's take a look at this area of the program by position group.
Quarterbacks - For all of the heat that Tim Beck has received since his arrival three years ago, the work he and Herman have done with Sam Ehlinger is probably the one thing that has kept the actual football on the field from going off the rails. This is a program that pretty much lives and dies with its quarterback play each week, which means the combo of Beck/Herman deserve credit for how far Ehlinger has developed over the course of three seasons.
Running Backs - Sophomore Keaontay Ingram has not made the kind of significant strides that were expected this season. Of course, this conversation might look quite different if Jordan Whittington had been able to stay healthy this season because his talent level is one that this offense is craving. Herman would likely argue that Stan Drayton's work with quarterback-turned-running back Roschon Johnson deserves a strong attaboy. The bottom line is over the course of three seasons, this offense has been in constant need of better running back play and the only time that wasn't the case was in the second half of last season when grad transfer Tre Watson played his best football. Overall, this is a position where it's probably safe to say that the Longhorns aren't getting enough out of their coaching.
Wide Receivers - While we can probably argue all day about the value of having two coaches dedicated to the wide receiver position, what can't be argued is that the Longhorns have had a number of impactful receivers that have developed quite a bit over the course of the last three seasons, whether it's Lil'Jordan Humphrey and Collin Johnson last year or Devin Duvernay or Brennan Eagles this season. This is a group that still needs more consistency, but it might also rank towards the bottom of this program's problems.
Tight Ends - The Longhorns have had solid production/performances from the tight end position over the course of the last two seasons, as evidenced by the fact that Andrew Beck is currently playing in the NFL and Cade Brewer was playing well before his recent injury, but you'd be hard-pressed to argue that this position has been anything more than solid and that verdict might be tested the rest of the season due to the fact that the rest of the players on the roster that aren't Brewer haven't proven to be anything more than bodies on the field at this point.
Offensive Line - It's possible that the offensive line has regressed back to the mean a little this season after a very strong start, but every single player on the line has made significant progress under the supervision of second-year offensive line coach Herb Hand. What was once the lowest-performing group in the program is now among the best.
Defensive Line - Over the course of two stints as the defensive line coach at Texas, Oscar Giles has proven to be a fine coach, but you cannot tell the story of the 2019 season thus far without mentioning the outright disaster along the defensive line, as you'd be hard-pressed to find a single player that has made the type of progress on the field that warrants any acclaim. In terms of production, this is the worst-performing defensive line in the Big 12.
Linebackers - It's been a bit of a revolving door of players at linebacker all season under Todd Orlando, who produced career years out of both Malik Jefferson in 2017 and Gary Johnson in 2018, before struggling to find a group of players that can consistently deliver in 2019. It's probably fair to ask if Orlando is getting enough out of Joseph Ossai, who is without question the team's best player, but isn't always put into a position to make plays as a pass-rusher on a defense screaming for someone to make plays as a pass-rusher.
Defensive Backs - On one hand, there's no question that this position group has been decimated by injuries this season, but leaning on those injuries as a crutch also clouds the reality that this has been an area where very little improvement has been made by most of the players in the unit. There's no question that players like Chris Brown, DeMarvion Overshown and Montrell Estelle have made progress from 2018 to 2019, but I don't know that I would say the same about the majority of first-team players that this team was expected to lean on this season ... I'm talking about the best players when they have been healthy. This team leads the nation in missed tackles and is among the worst in the nation in coverage burns. Perhaps a turnaround will take place in the final 1/3 of the season, but the story of this group in 2019 isn't a positive one.
Special teams - It's Derek Warehime's first season as full-time special teams coordinator and it feels like the team has regressed in most areas, but especially in the return game. Weirdly, the Longhorns actually rank first in the Big 12 in average yards per return on kickoffs, but that's mostly because of one return early in the season. As it stands, it feels like players in both return units are just trying to avoid disaster more than anything else.
No. 5 - Game Management...
What was being said in 2018: "There were a few questions that emerged in the 2017 season that will follow Herman and his staff into next season.
a. Offensive play-calling: I'm not going to get into it. You guys know what I'm talking about.
b. Players substitutions: The official stance on this is that position coaches were in charge of positional playing time, which some inside the program disputed to a degree, but the bottom line is that there were far too many times this season when the personnel on the field didn't match the situation/play-call on the field. From week to week, it just seemed like a guessing game of sorts.
c. Aggressiveness: Herman hates field goals and he really hates field goals once the offense has taken the ball inside the opponent's 10-yard line. There was a lot of discussion about the binder that Herman would reference when discussing his decisions to go for it on fourth downs, which on occasion meant that the Longhorns left points on the field. If calling a football game was a game of blackjack in Vegas, Herman would always be the guy that hits on 16."
Where things stand today: This might be the most concerning area of the entire program as it relates specifically to Herman.
While most of the attention following year one was focused on Beck's role as play-caller and Herman's lack of direct involvement, along with player substitutions, my main concern for Herman at this stage of his tenure in Austin deals directly with his feel for the game as a field general.
There have simply been too many moments where his general decision-making on the field has been flawed. In fact, there have been times when he's reminded me a little too much of Charlie Strong in this area of his responsibilities, especially when it comes to managing the game-clock.
To be fair, Herman told us in the first month of his first season that he was worried that he couldn't handle coaching the offense from the field, while also managing his responsibilities as the team's big picture decision-maker. Through two-plus seasons, his inconsistency as a big picture decision-maker is a topic from week to week. From clock management to use of timeouts to when/where to go for it on fourth downs, this is an area of Herman's responsibilities that are constantly popping up from week to week.
It's an area that must get better. Much better.
No. 6a - Media Relations...
What was being said in 2018: "I can't really speak about the things that happened in Houston or the relationship that he had with a media that certainly doesn't treat college football the way the media in Austin do. What I can tell you is that I thought Herman made every attempt to pull off being both accessible and in total control, which is tough to do, but I'd give him solid grades in this area. Hell, the media is always going to ask for more access, but I don't really have any issues with Herman's approach to the media. He's no Urban Meyer and thank goodness for that.
Where things stand today: Not much has changed. In fact, Herman has gone out of his way this season to speak with the media during bye weeks, including last week, when he certainly could have avoided doing so like the plague. This is an area where I still give him very solid marks.
No. 6b - Fan Relations...
What was being said in 2018: "Things are good here."
Where things stand today: Things are a little more complicated. Ask me again in a month.
No. 7 - Overall Thoughts...
What was being said in 2018: There's a lot of really good things happening inside the football program under Herman and it's impossible to close your eyes to that truth. As someone who subscribes to the idea of the devil being in the details, I find Herman to be a very detail-oriented head coach and his ability to think three steps ahead of the game in numerous areas of the program is critical. At the same time, there are areas that need improvement and it's easy to forget that Tom Herman had been a head coach for exactly two seasons before coming to Austin.
Two.
He's going to grow on this job and be better in future years in a lot of areas than he was in year one. Considering how well a lot of areas are already going, I think that should be viewed as a very exciting prospect. It suggests the best days are ahead.
Where things stand today: So much of what I thought in 2018 remains true. There are a lot of really good things happening inside the football program, especially with the way Herman runs the program outside of game days.
Back to back top-5 classes in 2018 and 2019 are being followed with crackerjack classes in both 2020 and 2021. The talent pool continues to improve, which is what needs to happen if the Longhorns want to compete for Big 12 championships and beyond.
The big concerns at this point are on the field in the following areas.
a. Questions remain with regards to his coaching staff and whether it's currently at its optimal level.
b. Questions remain with regards to player development in some areas of the team.
c. Questions remain with regards to Herman's game-day management.
Herman's ability to address these issues over the course of the next 12-14 months will go a long way towards deciding where this program will stand following the conclusion of Ehlinger's eligibility. These aren't impossible tasks that he must deal with by any stretch, but they can't be ignored, either.
There's still a lot of work to do.
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Buy) I'm going to get three flu shots before Friday. I'm not sure that what I've had is the flu, so I'll be taking zero chances.
(Buy) This is where I stand right now and I reserve the right to change my mind should this team catch fire to end the season.
(Buy) This is one of the most concerning areas in the program and it's the reason why I've been banging the drum about it over the last couple of years. Eventually, year after year of failing to deliver the goods in defensive line recruiting will catch up to you and this is a program that lacks difference makers. A guy like Vernon Broughton might be special in time, but it's not fair to expect him to be a major problem solver in his first year. It's possible improvement will be made, but the bar has been set so low this season that it's pretty hard to imagine it not improving ... just because?
(Buy) The coaching staff really doesn't have a choice. The remaining tight ends aren't ready to be the kind of contributor that Cade Brewer represented.
(Sell) Expect a crooked number on in both the win and loss column.
(Sell) I'll always give the Tide the benefit of the doubt at home. Nick Saban will love being able to play the disrespect card to his team.
(Sell) I think the team makes the Big Dance, but it might be a low seed going in, which would make calling for a definite win a tough projection to make.
(Buy) It's not the first time I've gone with the Hamsterdam routine. It probably won't be the last. It's not my favorite thing to do, but I've come to understand that there has to be a place for the board to blow off all of its steam. Either I create it or you guys will create it ... one way or another.
No. 9 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
... If I had a vote that mattered ...
1. LSU
2. Ohio State
3. Alabama
4. Clemson
5. Penn State
6. Georgia
7. Oregon
8. Oklahoma
9. Utah
10. Auburn
... I'm still not buying Baylor.
... Oregon is likely going to finish this season haunted by the reality that it couldn't close the deal on an Auburn team that it was absolutely better than for about 55 minutes.
... Kansas State is playing a really good brand of football. This ain't going to be a gimmie on Saturday.
... SMU/Memphis turned out to be a lot more fun than I thought it would and I say that as someone that fell asleep before the game ended.
... Urban Meyer is as crooked as a question mark, but Notre Dame should go for it considering it already has a sleaze-bag as a head coach as it stands.
... Russell Wilson has the glow, folks.
... lulz. Brandon Allen outplayed Baker Mayfield in an actual NFL football game. Man, I enjoy Cleveland losing more than I should.
... Gardner Minshew is a great story, but that's all he is.
... The Dolphins beat the Jets and all I can think about is the fact that the Jets kicked Dallas' ass a few weeks ago.
... I have a sneaking suspicion that the Phillies are going to offer Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg a ton of money. Of course, they won't be alone, but I think they might end up offering one of those two the most.
... The Nationals were deserving winners of the World Series. It pains me to type that, but it's pretty undeniable.
... No, I did not waste money on UFC244.
... What a weekend in the world of footy. Bayern lost (and fired its manager). Barcelona lost. PSG lost. Real Madrid couldn't beat Real Bettis at home. Napoli lost. It kind of felt like cats were chasing dogs all weekend.
... The Andre Gomes injury really made everything else that happened in the Everton/Tottenham game feel pretty meaningless.
... I don't know how Liverpool fans are going to survive this season. Every damn game feels like life or death and we're not even 30-percent through the season. Oh, have I told you guys how much I love Sadio Mane?
No. 10 – And Finally ...
You know I'm going to end the column with something animal-related that will make you smile.
This is so beautiful that it might make you smile and cry.
