Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Sark is here to save the day)

Ketchum

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Some other great dads in film...

Daniel Hillard - played by Robin Williams in “Mrs. Doubtfire”
Gil Buckman - played by Steve Martin in “Parenthood”
Tevye - played by Topol in "Fidler on the Roof"


Was Daniel really that good of a father?
 

Ketchum

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I think the lengths that he went to in order to spend time with his kids was pretty great, although I haven't seen the movie in probably 20 years so maybe I'm not remembering it perfectly.

Look, I love the movie, but we also have to acknowledge that the lengths that he took were way out of line and would cost him, not only custody, but potentially the chance to have any kind of realistic relationships with his kids.

Not to mention, while he's incredibly loving, he...

a. Attempted murder.
b. Lies and plots against his loves ones.
c. Terrorized his smallest child.
d. Lacked responsiobility
e. Violated court orders.
 

PaulieD

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The dad is Swiss Family Robinson was a good one. He raised three good boys and built the best tree house in history.


4524794593_0d2c958197_o.jpg
Man, I forgot about that. Would love to live there. Wife was a hottie too.
 
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Ketchum

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Dude, seriously. Get your kids together, and watch it--it's one of the all time classics.
I don't remember it ever being on when I was younger. I'm familiar with the movie, just don't ever remember seeing it.
 

samthehorn

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I’m still a bit apprehensive in anointing Sark the great offensive mind and head coach we are being led to believe he is, and I REALLY hope he is. But the fact of the matter is that under Saban, everybody looks like great coordinators or assistant coaches. Granted, I firmly believe he is a huge upgrade over the last two HCs, but I am reticent to jump in all the way until this staff proves they are the real deal
 
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cnapp

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There is a silver lining to this opening section.

I promise.

However, before we can truly appreciate Steve Sarkisian's work with college quarterbacks, we need to have some understanding of what he's inherited.

Simply put - the Texas football program is still waiting to join the modern passing game of college football.

Somehow, some way, the state of Texas cranks out first-round draft picks at the quarterback position, but its flagship school has been the Island of Misfit toys for too long. I'm not telling you something that you don't already know.

This century of offensive football in Austin is something else when you start looking through the data. Understand that I jumped into this assignment with the goal of showing everyone just how quickly and quietly things might change in the next few months. About midway through jotting down all of the numbers, I realized I wanted to create a historical barometer by which we can judge all future quarterback play at this school. By the time I was done, I was a little taken aback by stuff that I already knew, but was being reminded of.

Let's just have a quick chat about the passing efficiency statistic in college football. Pretty far from perfect and impossible to add up without a calculator, it's still a number that can tell you a lot about your college football team. If it's in a certain area, you can pretty much bank that the offense is in a very good place. If it's in other areas, it can indicate that your offense is in a less than very good place.

Generally speaking, anything above 160 translates to a pretty damn good season. Anything above 170 means you're among the nationally elite. If you can get in the 200ish department, you're almost certainly in New York for the Heisman.

150? Now we're starting to enter an area of purgatory at the position. It's definitely not great and it's better than average, but it's usually not going to be good enough in the modern game to compete at the nationally elite levels. Anything less than 140 is without question not good enough.

As a point of reference, the quarterbacks in last year's playoffs had ratings of 203.1 (Mac Jones at Alabama), 175.6 (Justin Fields at Ohio State), 169.12 (Trevor Lawrence at Clemson) and 144.3 (Ian Book at Notre Dame), respectively. OU's Spencer Rattler had one of the worst seasons during the Sooners’ run of Big 12 titles, and he finished with a 172.56. The year before the playoff teams had quarterbacks posting ratings of 202.0, 191.2, 181.4 and 166.7.

In the history of the Texas program, the Longhorns have had a quarterback post a season efficiency higher than Rattler's last season once - Colt McCoy in 2008. Unsurprisingly, that is the last time the Longhorns were truly among the nationally elite on the offensive side of the ball.

Based on the tiers I loosely created above, let's take a look at the quarterback play in Austin this century.

Nationally elite

173.8 Colt McCoy (2008)
163.9 Vince Young (2005)
161.8 Colt McCoy (2006)

(Note: Using a little college football inflation, anything 160+ before 2010 gets an extra 10-15 points).

Not great, but better than average.

153.3 David Ash (2012)
151.8 Sam Ehlinger (2019)
150.7 Sam Ehlinger (2020)
149.4 Major Applewhite (2001)
148.7 Chance Mock (2003)
146.8 Sam Ehlinger (2018)
147.4 Colt McCoy (2009)
144.3 Chris Simms (2000)
143.0 Chris Simms (2002)

Not good enough

139.2 Colt McCoy (2007)
136.0 Shane Buechele (2016)
135.9 Major Applewhite (2000)
133.5 Chris Simms (2001)
131.9 Case McCoy (2011)
130.6 Vince Young (2003)
128.4 Vince Young (2004)
126.8 Shane Buechele (2017)
126.1 Jerrod Heard (2015)
124.1 Sam Ehlinger (2017)
116.5 Tyrone Swoopes (2014)
111.1 Tyrone Swoopes (2015)
111.0 Garrett Gilbert (2010)
109.3 Case McCoy (2013)
108.0 David Ash (2011)

When we move forward with the 2021 season, use that chart to help determine how successful the quarterback play has been this season because the numbers might not be perfect, but they do eliminate burnt orange bias.

No. 2 - Here's where the story turns around...

It should make you feel good about the upcoming 2021 season for the Longhorns that their new head coach cranks out quarterbacks with better numbers than I've just shown you. Since 2011, every quarterback he's had at Washington, USC or Alabama has cracked 153.3 (the highest rating of any Texas quarterback outside of McCoy and Young at their best) except for two.

Cody Kessler finished with a 151.7 at USC in 2015, and Keith Price had a horrible 122.4 at Washington in 2012.

Take a look at Sark's quarterback numbers as head coach/offensive coordinator:

2020 - Mac Jones (Alabama): 203.1
2019 - Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama): 206.9
2015 - Cody Kessler (USC): 151.7
2014 - Cody Kessler (USC): 167.1
2013 - Keith Price (Washington): 153.3
2012 - Keith Price (Washington): 122.4
2011 - Keith Price (Washington): 161.9
2010 - Jake Locker (Washington): 124.2
2009 - Jake Locker (Washington): 130.1
2008 - Mark Sanchez (USC): 164.6
2007 - John David Booty (USC): 138.0

At a very minimum, Sarkisian produces quarterback play at every stop that is better than the results the Longhorns have received at the position over the course of the last decade. Five times since 2008, he's produced quarterback play on par or better than anything Texas has ever seen at the position (160+ rating). That should be the bottom line expectation -- the basement at quarterback under Sarkisian should be better than almost anything Texas football fans know.

On one hand, I give you the thing that should depress you as much as anything else that can be said about Texas football in the last 10 years.

On the other hand, I'm giving you the single biggest reason for optimism that a new day has arrived.

If the Longhorns can just join the modern age of offensive football, everything about Texas football is going to change.

No. 3 - 2022 Recruiting Scattershots ...

... It was kind of hard not to notice how little buzz was created in Tuscaloosa over the weekend by 2023 star quarterback Arch Manning when compared to what happened last week in Austin. As I said, his recruitment is going to be framed largely by Texas competing against schools that don't quite need him as much as Texas does. It could be the thing that helps land him or one of the things that pushes him away.

... The Longhorns did well this weekend in hosting future five-star 2022 receiver Evan Stewart, but the fact that he's waiting to commit means that the Longhorns’ offense (and season as a whole) will play a big role in what happens. The Longhorns are right there at the top with Alabama and Florida, but Stewart doesn't strike me as a guy that wants to take a chance with his college career. He's going to want to know that Texas is viable on a national level.

... I think everyone knew that 2023 star running back Rueben Owens was a kid that almost certainly committed before he was ready, which makes his decommitment from Texas not a huge thing to some degree. It was kind of expected, unless we want to live in a pretend world where being committed means going on a barnstorming tour around the country. All that being said, it might have helped if he had decommitted before June, which would have helped the Longhorns escape the optics of him opening up his recruitment less than 100 hours after visiting Texas twice for unofficial visits in a span of a few days. That left a mark, unintended or not.

... I don't know about the rest of you, but I found the cars on the field to be a subtle touch. All joking aside, Toviano seemed to have a very good time in Norman.


... New Mizzou cornerback Akayleb Evans is apparently better than I thought...


No. 4 - Premium Insurance Policy ...



Two quick thoughts.

a. Congrats, Hudson. Seriously. That's no easy feat, especially when juggling the role of quarterback at Texas.

b. This is a very low-key piece of insurance for the Longhorns in the event that Card loses the starting quarterback's job to Casey Thompson. Whereas the feeling is that Thompson will leave town if Card wins the job, this news is probably an indicator that Card probably wouldn't view the next couple of months as a "Loser Leaves Town" match. At the end of the day, Steve Sarkisian is going to pick the guy that he believes gives him the best chance to win, but there is something to be said for being able to sleep at night in August if Sarkisian believes Thompson is going to be his starter.

No. 5 - Texas Baseball makes history...

Striking out more times in a single College World Series game than any team in history is a hell of a way to make history.

Big strike zone or not, sometimes you just have to give the other team credit. Will Bednar was just that damn good. 15Ks in six innings is the truth. Landon Sims wasn't far off.

Mississippi State's was just better than Texan on Sunday night.

Now the Longhorns have to scratch and claw its way out of the loser's bracket. The good news is that if anyone has the pitching to get there, it's Texas. The bad news is that it's a tall ask.

Especially if you're never going to actually hit the ball.

No. 6 - Life ain't fair...


Kevin Durant didn't deserve to walk off the court on Saturday night as a loser.

He also didn't deserve his last shot of his season being an airball.

That seemed a little harsh from the basketball gods.

Yet, as William Munny told Little Bill Daggett right before he killed him in Unforgiven...

giphy.gif


Coming off perhaps the worst injury that a 30-year old hooper can suffer, I'm not sure we've ever seen a better version of this all-time NBA great than we've seen this season, but especially in the last week.

If any player in basketball deserves to end this season with a ring, it's the guy that just dropped the highest-scoring Game 7 in NBA history, which followed perhaps the best Game 5 performance.

Durant was freaking awesome. He had the glow.

Yet, he also had injured teammates and underperforming ones (yes, we're looking at you, Joe Harris).

As it turns out, having a superstar going nuclear can't be the only thing you have going for your team in 2021. That's the lesson we took from this weekend. You have to have more than one player doing everything.

Still, in one of the ironic twists of fate, you have to wonder if Durant proved more to his critics in losing than he ever did with those back-to-back Finals MVPs. It probably shouldn't be that way, but as we were reminded on Saturday night, deserve's got nothing to do with it.

No. 7 – BUY or SELL …

BUY-SELL.gif




(Buy) In a world where there are 12+ teams in the playoff, 10 wins is likely almost certainly getting Texas in.



(Buy) You're just going to need to be a little bit more patient.



(Sell) I think the structure of the current cycle does doom most coaching staffs and it's something Sarkisian will need to leap above, but it doesn't have as much to do with us covering them from a media standpoint as it does struggling on the field.



(Buy) I've never grilled on Father's Day.



(Buy) Yes, to a degree, but it's not something I think is an indictment on the staff as much as this program's current spot in the sport.



(Buy) Yup.



(Buy) It's the best thing to happen to Texas football in a decade.



(Sell) I'm on the fence with Brooks. Anderson is a guy that I think gets firmed up next weekend.



(Sell) Why would his defense be talked about at this point outside of wondering who can get to the quarterback and make difference-making plays?



(Buy) I think he'll offer more value to the 2023 class than Ewers would to the 2022 class, but it's really close. Feels like splitting hairs.



(Buy) It's just not shooting fish in a barrel like it was five years ago.



(Sell) Great question. Wish I had a better answer for you.

No. 8 - Scattershooting on the sports weekend...

... What a put on 18 by Jon Rahm. What a last couple of weeks he's had. What a story.

... Oh, if only Jordan Spieth could get that round on Thursday back. So much about the next 54 holes was so good.

... Devin Booker feels like a guy making the move from star to superstar.

... The Bucks probably get taken in a gentleman's sweep if the Nets are remotely healthy. The story of the 2021 playoffs is the players dropping like flies, which is directly impacting the title hunt.

... Man, I wish I had been there. Everything about Austin FC is pretty fantastic, except they need better players. However, as long as Matthew is dressed in green and playing the bongo, #verdeforever


... This former Longhorn All-American just became must-see-TV for the Olympics. Wow.


... Speaking of the Olympics, get ready to hear this young woman's name a lot in the coming months. She's going to be a superstar in August.


... I'm not going to lie, I couldn't help but laugh inside when I read that Anderson Silva beat Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. in a BOXING match that took place in MEXICO.

... Said it last week and I'll say it again... Italy looks tough in the Euros.

No. 9 - My Top 10 Fathers ...

As someone that didn't have a father growing up, I have to admit that the father characters in movies probably impacted me more than most kids in the 80s and 90s.

It felt like I was partly raised by television and film.

Therefore, a Top 10 list of the best dads in movies seems like the right call this week.

Best Dads

10. Frank Sullivan (Played by Dennis Quaid in Frequency)
9. Harry S. Stamper (Played by Bruce Willis in Armageddon)
8. Chris Gardner (Played by Will Smith in the Pursuit of Happyness)
7. Sam Baldwin (Played by Tom Hanks in Sleepless in Seattle)
6. Clark Griswold (Played by Chevy Chase in Vacation)
5. Noah Levenstein (Played by Eugene Levy in American Pie)
4. Mac MacGuff (Played by J.K. Simmons in Juno)
3. Lincoln Hawk (Played by Sly Stallone in Over The Top)
2. Furious Styles (Played by Laurence Fishburne in Boyz n the Hood)
1. Atticus Finch (played By Gregory Peck in To Kill a Mockingbird)

Worst Dads

10. Royal Tenenbaum (Played by Gene Hackman in The Royal Tenenbaums)
9. Joe Dirt's Dad (Played by Fred Ward in Joe Dirt)
8. Noah Cross (Played by John Huston in Chinatown)
7. Colonel Frank Fitts (Played by Chris Cooper in American Beauty)
6. Ed Wilson (Played by Rodney Dangerfield in Natural Born Killers)
5. Peter McCallister (Played by Jon Heard in Home Alone)
4. Daniel Plainview (Played by Daniel Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood)
3. Darth Vader (Played by James Earl Jones and David Prowse in Star Wars)
2. Jack Torrance (Played by Jack Nicholson in The Shining)
1. Thanos (Guardians of the Galaxy)

No. 10 - And Finally ...

My home in Cedar Park officially sold this week, which means that for the first time since 1986, I don't have a current residence in the Austin-area.

I'm going to live, but it is taking some getting used to.
Thanos! Ha, you nailed the worst dad
 

Ketchum

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I’m still a bit apprehensive in anointing Sark the great offensive mind and head coach we are being led to believe he is, and I REALLY hope he is. But the fact of the matter is that under Saban, everybody looks like great coordinators or assistant coaches. Granted, I firmly believe he is a huge upgrade over the last two HCs, but I am reticent to jump in all the way until this staff proves they are the real deal
His career as a quarterback develop goes back almost two decades. His first quarterback as a quarterback coach was Carson Palmer. He helped develop him from a JAG to a Heisman winner.
 
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Sentient

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His career as a quarterback develop goes back almost two decades. His first quarterback as a quarterback coach was Carson Palmer. He helped develop him from a JAG to a Heisman winner.
This is true. I remember how much USC fans hated him prior to his breakout year. This kind of thing is the biggest reason for hope for Texas under Sark. Texas needs an answer to Lincoln Riley if it is ever to break out of its slump.
 
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boernefan

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You seem more worried about our players than some of us. He gave up 35 points around 4 times in almost a decade, with overall less talent. Granted not Against the Big12 offenses week in week out but one could argue he has been one of if not the best DCs. I think we have a lot of talent on D just really need one guy that can pin his ears back and create havoc. In the different D we may not need the traditional speed rusher (although we would love to have one). It would be interesting to see what PK had as rushers compared to what we currently have.
The best thing we have on defense is very good to elite interior linemen.
It all starts up front.
 
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HookemChargers

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His career as a quarterback develop goes back almost two decades. His first quarterback as a quarterback coach was Carson Palmer. He helped develop him from a JAG to a Heisman winner.
I think this team will lose 2-3 games in year one with players that are not his. I have to hope OU and Aggies have some slip ups this year. Unless you have some top players just love Texas and want to make it great again just going off wins will be hard. Who is the playmaker on Def and who will be QB or the OL is still to be determined. That is a lot of questions for a team going against ISU and 5 star OU. Arkansas will be tough also.
 

Baguette

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American by birth, Texan by the Grace of God.
Maybe a Top Ten "all time great male role models" for TV & Movies is on order in the near future? Like.. John Wayne in The Cowboys. Matt Dillon--Gunsmoke. Gus McCray--Lonesome Dove.

Jimmy Stewart---Mr. Smith Goes to Washington {more relevant & needed now than ever before}
 

MauiHorn

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The problem with super teams is that when dudes get hurt, you've got scrubs stepping in to play critical minutes.
Cant disagree, but you cannot have one player do it all. He literally got the pass once the ball was beyond halfcourt, iso to the extreme.
 

MauiHorn

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Never seen it, but he'd have to be pretty bad.
How about the Dad is American Beauty. He was pretty f'd up as a Dad, husband and person. Played very well by an actor Chris Cooper who has been in a ton of movies.


NVM this...it was on your list.
 
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Ketchum

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Maybe a Top Ten "all time great male role models" for TV & Movies is on order in the near future? Like.. John Wayne in The Cowboys. Matt Dillon--Gunsmoke. Gus McCray--Lonesome Dove.

Jimmy Stewart---Mr. Smith Goes to Washington {more relevant & needed now than ever before}
I like it!
 
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FrancoBevo

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@Ketchum - I like the TV/Movie Dad bit, made me think of a couple of others.

where would you rank;

Thornton Melon from Back to School?

George Henderson from Harry and the Hendersons

Chet Ripley and Roman Craig from The Great Outdoors

Vito Corleone and Michael Corleone from the Goodfather Movies

Anthony Soprano from the Sopranos

The QB efficiency analysis was pretty good stuff. I was a little surprised the GD years didn't generate more above 150+ ratings
 
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daflonghorn

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HA !
Told you Applewhite was better than Simms !!
 

Enjoying the Ride

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Re the question on whether Aggie with "play in the SEC" will be more effective than Texas with its NIL.

At least Texas will have something distinctive and positive to say about playing for Texas.

And I think Texas will be able to construct a pretty plausible story about why Texas' NIL program will be more valuable than A&M's. People are not going to follow each of the 1020 scholarship football players from the SEC on Twitter or Instagram just because these guys are in the SEC. People will follow players from the particular teams they love, not the conference they play in. Texas is going to have a much wider audience than A&M even though both schools have large alumni bases, because Texas has a much larger fan base outside of just the alumni. Most fans (and people in general) who did NOT go to A&M tend to think of Aggies are weird. But Texas has a lot of fans who did not go to Texas. I think the relative merchandise sales for the two schools is indicative of this and I believe Texas is perennially tops in this measure.
 

Enjoying the Ride

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Ketch, I am holding out hope that Texas can have a quicker turnaround than you seem to think. The hope is based on the accuracy of recruiting rankings as a predictor of athletic success, a truth for which you have provided ample evidence in many analyses. My logic is as follows:

Based on cumulative recruiting rankings, Texas should have better athletes than almost all the teams they have been losing to in the last several years, certainly better than Maryland, TCU, Kansas State, etc.
If we are losing to teams that have worse athletes, surely poor coaching is a big factor, either in lack of player development or inferior strategy/play calling.
We will still have better athletes based on cumulative recruiting rankings this year than all of our scheduled opponents except for OU.
Therefore, if we get better coaching we should do better on the field, this year, against this schedule.
 

bexster

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We had a pre-offer that was significantly higher than our listing price, so we decided to take it before it even hit the market.
It's a crazy market right now but you should never take an offer off market offer until you let your agent or whoever is representing you even if it's yourself open it up to all buyers to get into a bidding war to maximize your value.
 

Ketchum

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Ketch, I am holding out hope that Texas can have a quicker turnaround than you seem to think. The hope is based on the accuracy of recruiting rankings as a predictor of athletic success, a truth for which you have provided ample evidence in many analyses. My logic is as follows:

Based on cumulative recruiting rankings, Texas should have better athletes than almost all the teams they have been losing to in the last several years, certainly better than Maryland, TCU, Kansas State, etc.
If we are losing to teams that have worse athletes, surely poor coaching is a big factor, either in lack of player development or inferior strategy/play calling.
We will still have better athletes based on cumulative recruiting rankings this year than all of our scheduled opponents except for OU.
Therefore, if we get better coaching we should do better on the field, this year, against this schedule.
I totally understand where you are coming from.
 

Ketchum

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It's a crazy market right now but you should never take an offer off market offer until you let your agent or whoever is representing you even if it's yourself open it up to all buyers to get into a bidding war to maximize your value.
We ended up getting more than all recent sales of similar homes have been getting.

Came from a family that went by our terms. No headaches.

I'm content.