Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Saying what needs to be said)
- Thread starter Ketchum
- Start date
Dang. Missed that one.I was saying it's bold to tell the owner of the site to pretty much go **** himself.
I really really don’t give one f*ck about ole Miss and there’s no motivation there. And the cotton bowl will feel like old hat. But I’m fully prepared to see “5. Texas” on that fateful decision day.
South Alabama and UCF both destroyed OSU. It is truly a shock that this team is in the Big 12 Championship game. No other top 8 school is playing anyone with two such outlandish loses.
I am not sure we want chaos. Would rather have a clear decision for the committee.
That comes only when Florida State loses and Alabama loses. Then it is clearly Georgia, Michigan, Pac12 winner and Texas.
If Florida State loses but Alabama beats Georgia, then you have Michigan, and Pac12 winner as two of the four, but I don’t trust committee to correctly place Texas in the playoffs and not BOTH of a one loss Georgia team and a one loss Alabama which just won the SEC championship and beat number 1 ranked team. Yes, Texas beat Alabama in head to head but that was months ago and recency bias is a real thing in humans And would committee really leave a one loss Georgia out? Who knows? But I would rather not risk it if it were up to me.
The head of Rivals was once concerned we were the same person because he heard the rumor.
You failed to mention that Ok State really beat Sooners twice this year, once when they played Bedlam in Stillwater and again when they teased them so badly by the way the won against Brigham Young to keep them out of Big12 Championship game !Everyone just take a deep breath.
After a weekend that was full of entertainment, but zero favors being done in the name of Texas getting into the four-team playoff that has become the quest that the Texas fan base is so thirsty to taste that it's somewhat made this season slightly disappointing for some, let's just stop for a moment and smell the roses.
The entire burnt orange universe might need to learn some breathing exercises after the AP and Coaches Polls came out on Sunday with the Longhorns trailing one-loss Ohio State.
Nevertheless ... just breathe.
Not to go all weak-in-the-knees on such a championship-starved audience, but it was Norman Dale who once told a soon-to-be-championship squad that if they put their effort and concentration into playing to their potential and being the best they can be, the team would emerge as winners in his book.
While I fully believe that the Texas Longhorns are going to emerge victorious in this weekend's Big 12 Championship game against Ollie Gordon and a bunch of dudes, I already feel how I feel about the 2023 Texas Longhorns.
A team led by Mr. Realizing His Potential T'Vondre Sweat has woken the hopeless romantic in me with regard to Texas Football.
I think I love this team.
This group has made football around here fun again.
As someone who has not only watched a lot of bad football for much of the last 14 seasons, but has sat ringside to how the sausage was made along the way, a little pigskin romanticism after so many years that have felt like we were all going through a pigskin divorce kind of feels like a first kiss of sorts.
Although this season has gone by in the blink of an eye, it has already given Orangebloods so much in the way of memories. Beating Alabama will remain in our collective hearts and souls as an all-time reawakening. Making sure that the likes of Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech and the rest of the blood-sucking ticks that represent the Big 12 from having any eternal scoreboard is borderline priceless. Chasing a first-ever playoff bid has reminded so many people why they commit so much of themselves to being a fan in the first place.
So many of the young men that have made all of this happen are easy to root for. Pick almost any name ... there are good people and amazing stories all over the place. For all of the worries about NIL robbing the sport of its soul, this Longhorns team is full of characters that look like they are having the time of their lives and there's real love being shared between them.
You don't need me to tell you about it, you can see it with your own eyes.
I know there's a lot of frustration at the notion of going 12-1, winning the Big 12 and getting left out of the playoff ... and if four power five conference teams remain undefeated through this weekend ... it'll be justified. Yet, if you view things with a bigger lens, there's so much to be thankful for.
This feels like the beginning of something and not the apex of the ride.
So, take a deep breath.
A team worthy of celebrating for the rest of your lives has a title game to play in five or six days (depending on when you read this). The first conference championship since season two of Breaking Bad and Taylor Swift's first tour is within reach.
I can't wait to see the videos of this team celebrating if it can close the deal, playoff or no playoff.
No. 2 - A special season in the making ...
A general rule of thumb over the course of the last 40 years is that any season that features a conference championship or major bowl win is remembered as a season for celebration.
Yet, only once has a Texas team both won a conference championship and a major bowl game ... the 2005 national championship team.
Beyond that ... take a look.
1983 - Won the SWC title, but lost to UGA in the Cotton Bowl.
1990 - Won the SWC title, but lost to Miami in the Cotton Bowl.
1995 - Won the SWC title, but lost to Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl
1996 - Won the Big 12 title, but lost to Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl
2004 - Finished 3rd in the Big 12, but beat Michigan in the Rose Bowl
2005 - Won the Big 12 and beat USC in the national championship.
2008 - Finished 3rd in the Big 12, but beat Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl
2009 - Won the Big 12, but lost to Alabama in the national championship.
2018 - Finished 2nd in the Big 12, but beat Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.
The 2023 team has a chance to add itself to the list of truly memorable teams in school history this week with a win over Oklahoma State, but winning two more games this season would put it in truly rarified air.
No. 3 - My Personal All-Big 12 Team ...
It's award season. Beginning this week, we'll start to see all-conference teams and all-America-level honors flowing like candy on Halloween.
Here's how I would vote for the All-Big 12 team.
Offensive Player of the Year: Ollie Gordon (Oklahoma State)
Defensive Player of the Year: T'Vondre Sweat (Texas)
Coach of the Year: Steve Sarkisian (Texas)
QB: Dillon Gabriel (Oklahoma)
RB: Ollie Gordon (Oklahoma State)
RB: Jonathon Brooks (Texas)
WR: Xavier Worthy (Texas)
WR: Javon Baker (UCF)
TE: Ben Sinnott (Kansas State)
LT: Kelvin Banks (Texas)
LG: Cooper Beebe (Kansas State)
C: Clark Barrington (Baylor)
RG: Michael Ford Jr. (Kansas)
RT: Christian Jones (Texas)
DE: Nelson Ceaser (Houston)
DT: T'Vondre Sweat (Texas)
DT: Byron Murphy (Texas)
DE: Tre'Mon Morris-Brash (UCF)
LB: Nickolas Martin (Oklahoma State)
LB: Danny Stutsman (Oklahoma)
LB: Jaylan Ford (Texas)
CB: Myles Purchase (Iowa State)
S: Billy Bowman (Oklahoma)
S: Jeremiah Cooper (Iowa State)
CB: Korie Black (Oklahoma State)
Nickel: Jahdae Barron (Texas)
KR: Matthew Goldon (Houston)
PR: Xavier Worthy (Texas)
K: Bert Auburn (Texas)
P: Ryan Rehkow (BYU)
No. 4 - A few things about the Big 12 title game/playoffs discussion ...
a. The Longhorns should absolutely dismantle Oklahoma State. They should. The Cowboys are mostly a one-trick pony on offense and that pony on offense runs straight into the teeth of UT's biggest strength. Its quarterback has a 119.5 season efficiency rating, which is four points lower than Case McCoy's career rating. The Cowboys lost by a combined 68 points to directional schools from Alabama and Florida. They rank 10th in run defense and 12th in pass defense in Big 12 play. This should be a double-digit win.
b. I can't express enough respect for the top eight teams in the playoff. None have lost a game to a team outside of the top 13 in the major polls and other than Ohio State, all have won their games in November with all of the pressure in the world on their shoulders. I know it's easy to view this through the lens of true confirmation bias, but every one of these teams is really impressive. History says that a number of these teams would have blinked and none of them have.
c. Just being involved in all of the playoff discussion is a hell of a lot of fun. I wish the expansion to 12 could have occurred this season because there truly are eight teams that deserve to be in a playoff.
d. Go Louisville! That being said, if Florida State wins the ACC on Saturday, it has to be in. You simply can't keep a team on a 19-game winning streak out. Period. I don't care if it has to start you at quarterback. I also think the rest of the FSU team, pound for pound, is better than a lot of people want to give it credit for.
e. Ohio State being in front of Texas in the two major polls is ridiculous, but thankfully those two polls are meaningless. That being said, the unwillingness of voters to send the Buckeyes to the back of the line after a loss only reinforces my opinion that if Georgia loses on Saturday, it might not drop below No. 4 for the committee.
f. Speaking of the Dawgs, one of the things we learned this weekend is that the defending champions still bleed. If Georgia Tech can play with them, all of these teams can play with them.
g. Washington hasn't really looked like a top-four team since it beat Oregon back on October 14. The Huskies have won their last 6 games by the following margins (in order): 8, 9, 10, 7, 2 and 3.
No. 5 - Aggies Gonna Aggie ...
Some man somewhere once said, "Don't tell me about the labor pains, just show me the baby."
As much as everyone wants to clown on the Aggies for the ridiculousness of Saturday night when Mark Stoops went from being their coach to Tweeting just after midnight that he was staying at ... ahem ... Kentucky, all that really matters is the bottom line.
The bottom line on Sunday is that they have decided to hire ... ahem ... Duke head coach Mike Elko.
My initial reaction on the bottom line-ness of it all?
Elko is a perfectly fine coach. He did a good job at Duke with zero pressure or expectations on his shoulders. His defenses are good.
Yet, if you're going to eat $76 million and potentially spend another $50+ million, you've got to come away with some sort of guarantee on the box and Elko is no guarantee on a box.
He's a guy with a 16-9 career record who will be competing in the ultimate lion's den of college football. Other than the fact that he once coached a couple of seasons at A&M as the defensive coordinator, there's not much to point to that explains why he's the guy ... other than they couldn't do better.
On the bright side, he's basically a wash with Mark Stoops. Both are rock solid football coaches. Is that enough in a sport that kind of demands the head coaches in the sport to be rock stars?
Maybe it'll work out. The talent on hand with good coaching should compete for a 12-team playoff spot in 2024.
Yet, this is a program that had names like Ryan Day, Dabo Swinney and even Matt Campbell being mentioned for the job as recently as eight hours ago.
And they hired someone that no other big boy SEC program would have touched with a 10-foot pole. But, hey, if the Aggies are happy ... right on.
p.s. My guess is that he'll stop talking about the dangers of the Portal moving forward now that he coaches at a school that pisses money away like Montgomery Brewster with 48 hours lefts before his deadline.
No. 6 - If I had a vote that mattered ...
Top 10
1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Washington
4. Florida State
5. Oregon
6. Texas
7. Alabama
8. Ohio State
9. Missouri
10. Ole Miss
(Heisman Trophy)
1. Jayden Daniels - QB - LSU
2. Bo Nix - QB - Oregon
3. Michael Penix Jr. - QB - Washington
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) The Pac-12 champion is getting in. Period.
(Buy) There's no one out there that can't be beaten on any given day by the other top eight teams.
(Sell) Not automatically. It's going to take some help.
(Sell) I don't think a lot of BMDs are consciously thinking that, but there are a lot of people that hope that the byproduct of winning big is that more BMDs will step the hell up.
(Sell/Buy) I think there will be more than 6.5 guys that Portal out and I'm sure a couple of two-deep guys will leave (but not starters).
(Sell) I think they love him.
(Sell) Baxter is Sark's guy.
(Sell) Nah ...
(Buy) Can I take something in the middle of those examples?
(Sell) I think Vegas would have Michigan and Oregon favored over Texas.
(Sell) It's hard to completely know without knowing how the roster will look after the Portal closes, but the defense will have to replace a handful of truly significant difference-makers and until that happens, you can't really say otherwise.
(Sell) This team isn't playing with house money. This weekend is a must-win.
(Buy) Deep down, Texas fans want to chant it.
(Buy) He has the best conversion rate of any kicker in the league.
(Sell) Why would they only finish 7th? They won't finish 7th next week, even if they don't make it.
(Sell) Nah.
(Buy) Of course, there will be occasional IT problems. It's part of the online world. There are times when Twitter, Facebook and my favorite podcast networks will have technical issues.
It happens.
Now, there have been times over the last decade when the stability of the site/network has sucked. We crashed 7 or 8 years ago on national signing day and it lasted for most of the day. Knock on wood, but we haven't had those kinds of issues in a while.
That being said, we have had issues on the last couple of Saturdays, including a 15-20 minute spell on Saturday night when everyone was experiencing the infamous 502 errors. Believe me, no one was more frustrated than I was and we simply have to do a better job. An occasional issue happens and you have to expect that once or twice a year, there will be a blip, but we can't have consistent issues.
The good news (if you can call it that) is that we're not looking at a network issue, as Rivals as a network has been fine, while Orangebloods has not. That means that the issues are specifically related to our site and Rivals engineers are still trying to figure out what is still causing it. Full transparency: we're still trying to figure out why it is happening.
In the meantime, the site has been moved to its own dedicated infrastructure that is allowing us to have an entire database instance and pool of servers to just our site, while we locate the underlying cause.
I've been told it is a massive priority behind the scenes. We will eventually get this fully resolved, even if it means getting rid of some archives from a decade of activity in an effort to release some of the stress that can be created by millions of posts that could be pushing the limits of a few database indexes.
I hope this comes across as transparency and not excuse-making. I'd like to not be frustrated and seething mad on Saturday nights, if at all possible.
No. 8 – The Texas volleyball team got hung out to dry …
When the NCAA Volleyball rankings came out last week, Stanford was No. 2 and the defending national champion Texas Longhorns were No. 4.
Somehow the Longhorns were placed in the Stanford regional, which means that the committee has them slotted as the No. 7 national seed?
Meanwhile, No. 7 (in the rankings) Louisville is matched up with No. 4 overall Pittsburgh. I know the AVCA rankings don't mean a ton (clearly), but to send the Longhorns into the second-most difficult region of them all to face a No. 1 seed that swept them 3-0 earlier in the season was quite a harsh sentence.
Giving them Texas A&M in the first round was just them taking the piss, as the English say.
Oh well, these women aren't shrinking violets. They are made of championship mettle.
If they can get to the Final Four this season, it will most definitely be earned.
No. 9 – Scattershooting on anything and everything …
... Ryan Day really does look like a guy that is standing on third base and thinks he hit a triple when he really came in as a pitch runner for the guy that hit the triple.
... Still can't believe this happened. It's like the ghost of Tommy Lewis hit him before the ball arrived.
... Speaking of things I don't believe, how, Auburn, how? How did you let Jalen Milroe convert a 4th and goal from the 31-yard line? How?
... Dear Mississippi State, not that you care, but Jeff Lebby knew.
... Props to Hudson Card for ending his season with back-to-back bangers, including 360 yards of all-purpose offense and four touchdowns in a rivalry win over Indiana on Saturday. It was far from a great (or even good) season for Card, but it says something about his backbone that he finished strongly.
... Marvin Harrison came to Ohio State to beat Michigan and play for a Big 10 title. He'll end up leaving Columbus having done neither.
... I weirdly enjoyed Iowa State and Kansas State more than I should have ... all because of a bunch of snow.
... The Houston Texans might not be a complete team yet, but the Texans sure are fun. Losing on a 56-yard field goal that hits the crossbar? Man, these Stroud/Lawrence match-ups for the rest of the decade are going to be must-see TV.
... My fantasy team got beat so badly this weekend that I actually feel humbled.
... lulz @ the Patriots. The fans of this team deserve some ugly years. They are due.
... Arthur Smith might have learned the Bijan Robinson lesson he needed to learn in order to play him a little more the rest of the season. 123 offensive yards and 2 touchdowns on 19 touches.
... Liverpool didn't play a great game, but the Reds ended Man City's home win streak, nonetheless. Being able to do that on a day when you were just pretty good gives me great hope going the rest of the season.
... It pains me that he's not at Liverpool.
... Can you imagine how pissed this woodpecker must have been?
No. 10 - The List: Top 10 Non-Christmas Christmas Movies ...]
This was such a good buy or sell question that I thought I would turn it into its own section.
Hey @skahtea, your list sucks and I can't take any opinion you ever give again seriously. How is Die Hard not No. 1? The Sound of Music doesn't have a single Christmas scene!
Is that how I'm supposed to do it?
Let's get on with it!
Honorable mention: The Apartment, Catch Me If You Can, Step Brothers, LA Confidential and Little Women
10. Full Metal Jacket
9. American Psycho
8. Sleepless in Seattle
There's a part of me that wants to put this in the top 5.
7. You've Got Mail
There's a part of me that wants to put this in the top 3.
6. Lethal Weapon
5. Eyes Wide Shut
Oh yeah.
Videodrome : Eyes Wide Shut: Kubrick’s Christmas Film : Aquarium Drunkard
Stanley Kubrick's final film is also his most polarizing. It's been called his best and his worst, his most cryptic and his most mismanaged; an erotic thriller, a psychosexual drama, and a paranoid thriller. But is Eyes Wide Shut a Christmas film?aquariumdrunkard.com
4. Rocky IV
I might have this movie too low considering Rocky defeats Drago and ends the Cold War on Christmas night.
3. Trading Places
Maybe my favorite Christmas scene of all time.
2. Die Hard
It'll be some people's No. 1, but they are forgetting about something ...
1. The Godfather
Sorry Die Hard, but Sollozzo grabs Tom while he's out Christmas shopping for a sled. Plus, Michael and Kay go Christmas shopping with "Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas" playing in the background.
You’re far from the only one. Voters think it. The CFP committee thinks it and every pundit on Fox Sports Radio (that I listen to all day long at work) thinks it.
You are clueless if you think an undefeated, conference winning FSU isn’t getting in.
Since I am clueless, please enlighten me on where undefeated Florida State lands if this plays out?
12-1 Michigan loses the BIG to Iowa
12-1 Bama wins the SEC over Georgia
12-1 Oregon wins the PAC over Washington
12-1 Texas wins the B12 over Oklahoma State
…
12-1 Georgia
12-1 Washington
11-1 Ohio State
If you truly believe Florida State is in because they are the only undefeated team left, then you are clueless.
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Love this volleyball team. They have a huge task in front of them. Let's see if senior leaders can take them to final four. Gunna be interesting 🤘
Getting into the playoffs shouldn’t be about fan favoritism. Results on the field, ie, wins, SOS, etc. should be only criteria.
I know it won’t be. In the end, it will be who ABC/ESPN wants. That may help us.,
I suppose I am clueless. Win-loss record should be the first/paramount factor. Otherwise, there is no reason to play the games. By your reasoning, our Bama win means nothing, as “they are a better team now than week 2”; a subjective fan favoritism or media agenda influence not based on the facts of what actually happened on the field.
With that said, it will come down to who TV wants in those 4 games, which should help Texas.
None of that matters because at that ranking time, nobody had played for or won a CC. Once that occurs a rerank will occur. It will be like every CC gets a magical highly ranked win or an extra win that nobody else gets. This has happened in the past and the committee said it effectively in that manner, that the conf championship games hadn’t been played yet and this no one had won one yet. And that after they did, that fact came to bear on the rankings.
Winning the regular season does and should matter.
I hear what you’re saying and that’s somewhat true. Just be careful in assuming a conference championship will by itself eliminate non-conference champions like Ohio State from playoff contention.
Here’s ESPN’s latest take on the CFP playoff implications:
Ranking conference title games by playoff importance
From the ACC to the SEC, we rank which conference title games will have the most impact on the CFP.
This part is most telling to me:
“Oregon's résumé would improve significantly if it beats a top-four Washington team to win the Pac-12, but what if one-loss Oregon is going against one-loss Texas and one-loss Alabama? The Tide would have defeated the committee's No. 1 team. Texas would have a win against the SEC champs. Undefeated Michigan would be in. Undefeated Florida State is likely in. Oregon's résumé would come under the microscope in a side-by-side comparison with Alabama, Texas, Georgia and Ohio State. According to ESPN's strength of record metric, Ohio State would rank higher than both Texas and Oregon, even if those teams finish as one-loss conference champions. Oregon's opportunity to prove to the committee it can beat Washington when it matters most will be critical.”
@Ketchum also note that ESPN analytics is only giving Georgia a 53% chance of beating Bama, the lowest favorite of any of the championship games.
Florida State is in if Georgia wins and Florida State wins (74% chance of beating Louisville).
ESPN also notes the only ranked team Texas has beaten now is Bama, with Kansas State likely dropping out of the top 25 after their loss to Iowa State last week.
The fourth spot will be a debate with Ohio State if Georgia wins, but the Longhorns' win at Alabama would still be better than Ohio State's wins against Penn State and at Notre Dame (for now). But if Georgia blows out Bama, the conference title would be a tiebreaker, but Ohio State will have the better the SOR, SOS, and FPI (assuming Michigan wins the BIG too). Ultimately the article concludes the debate between Ohio State and Texas is subjective, so there's no guarantees, but for now the protocol would tilt toward Texas. If Bama loses by a lot, Ohio State will lobby to get in ahead of the B12 champ, just like it did in 2014.
I don’t agree with that but for those of you praying for a Georgia win and a Florida State loss, be careful what you wish for because even then there’s no guarantees.
I still say Bama winning the SEC is our best shot, particularly since it’s our only ranked win now, and we’re only adding the weakest CCG to our resume this weekend (assuming we win).
