Player development.
It seems to be the biggest talking point around the Texas program following an NFL Draft two weekends ago that featured a huge number of native Texans, but very few of them played their college football in Austin.
The Longhorns clearly aren't producing enough high-level players, but that doesn't mean that Texas will continue to underperform as a program.
What I wanted to do in this week's column is take a look at the Texas football program by recruiting tiers and discuss what the math suggests about what the Longhorns should be doing with their talent and what the math suggests the Longhorns need to do if the program wants to take a step towards a Big 12 title and beyond.
More than anything, the goal is to establish a set of expectations for a fan-base that often overrates its talent because of the recruiting rankings.
No. 2 - The five-stars ...
Here's what you need to know about this tier of prospects.
* Typically, five-star rankings turn into NFL drafted players at a rate of 70-75 percent.
* Typically, five-stars develop into first, second or third round prospects at a rate of 30-40 percent.
Here are the Texas five stars ...
6.1
RB - Bijan Robinson (Freshman)
DB - Caden Sterns (Junior)
On the surface: It's hard to know where Robinson will fall as a college player at this point, but Sterns looks like a player that is headed towards an NFL-level career. What is unknown yet is whether he's likely to end up as a first three rounds kind of player or a last four rounds type of player.
What needs to happen for Texas: Both players have to reach their ceilings as players. If the Longhorns are going to take the next step, prospects like Robinson and Sterns must develop into stars because there just aren't enough five-stars in the program to compensate for anything else occurring.
No. 3 - The other recruiting tier that really matters ...
In a lot of ways, five-stars should probably be counted as six stars and high four stars should be counted as five-stars because this tier's rate of high-level development follows closer to five-star lines than the rest of the four stars.
* Typically, somewhere between 30-40 percent of all high four-star players develop into NFL Drafted players.
* Typically, somewhere between 15-25 percent of all high four-star players eventually get drafted in the first three rounds of the draft.
Here are the Texas high four-stars ...
WR - Brennan Eagles (Junior)
WR - Jake Smith (Sophomore)
WR - Jordan Whittington (Redshirt freshman)
DB - Anthony Cook (Junior)
DB - Jalen Green (Junior)
DB - B.J. Foster (Junior)
DB - Tyler Owens (Sophomore)
On the surface: That's a lot of wide receiver and defensive back talent, and literally nothing else. The math suggests that the Longhorns should see three or four of these players develop into NFL-level players when it's all said and done, with potentially one or two developing into top of the draft type of players.
What needs to happen for Texas: Three of the four juniors in the program need to develop into NFL-level players (which seems very possible), while at least two out of three that includes Smith, Whittington and Owens need to develop into the same type of player. Somewhere in this group, at least two legit college stars worthy of top-3 rounds consideration need to emerge.
No. 3 - The rest of the four stars ...
There's a little bit of a floor that falls out from underneath the four-star prospect tier once you get beyond the nation top 60-75 prospects.
Consider the following about the mid- and low-four star prospects.
* About one in four prospects among the rest of the four stars eventually becomes an NFL drafted player.
* Only about 5-10 percent from this category is annually drafted in the top three rounds of the Draft.
Here are Texas' mid- and low-four star rankings.
Mid four-stars
QB - Sam Ehlinger (Senior)
QB - Hudson Card (Freshman)
WR - Alvonte Woodard (Sophomore)
WR - Joshua Moore (Sophomore)
WR - Marcus Washington (Sophomore)
TE - Brayden Liebrock (Redshirt freshman)
OL - Junior Angilau (Sophomore)
OL - Tyler Johnson (Redshirt freshman)
DT - Keondre Coburn (Sophomore)
DT - Vernon Broughton (Freshman)
LB - DeMarvion Overshown (Junior)
DB - Chris Adimora (Sophomore)
DB - Kenyatta Watson (Redshirt freshman)
DB - Xavion Alford (Freshman)
Low four-star prospects
QB - Casey Thompson (Sophomore)
QB - Ja'Quinden Jackson (Freshman)
RB - Keontay Ingram (Junior)
WR - Troy Omeire (Freshman)
TE - Malcolm Epps (Sophomore)
OT - Denzel Okafor (Senior)
OT - Isaiah Hookfin (Redshirt freshman)
OG - Jake Majors (Freshman)
DE - Marquez Bimage (Senior)
DE - Joseph Ossai (Junior)
DE - Alfred Collins (Freshman)
DE - Reese Leitao (Junior)
DE - Prince Dorbah (Freshman)
DT - Jacoby Jones (Senior)
DT - Myron Warren (Redshirt freshman)
LB - Dele Adeoye (Sophomore)
LB - David Gbenda (Redshirt freshman)
DB - D'Shawn Jamison (Junior)
DB - Josh Thompson (Senior)
DB - Kitan Crawford (Freshman)
DB - Montrell Estelle (Junior)
On the surface:: This is the heartbeat of the Texas program. Thirty-five players. The math suggests of this group that somewhere between eight and nine players should eventually become drafted players and that at least a few should be high-level impact players. The problem for the Texas program for the last decade is that in every cycle this is a tier that should have eight or nine players in it that become NFL players at a minimum, but the Longhorns have been developing players from this tier of the rankings at less than half the rate expected. If you want to know what's really wrong with the Texas program, it's not that big recruits have fallen on their face, it's that the very good recruits aren't developing into very good players nearly enough. Even now, if you run down through the list of all 35 players, I can only count on four or five names that I'm certain will be NFL drafted players. Some of that has to do with youth and some of it has to do with the fact that the development of this area of the program still isn't hitting the national norms.
What needs to happen for Texas: My goodness, just hit the national average for starters. At some point, this has to be a program that is developing players from this tier at a rate of 25-35 percent, but if the program was just hitting at a success rate of one out of every nine players, we're talking about an extra couple of wins per year right there.
THERE'S LITERALLY NOTHING MORE IMPORTANT THAT YOU'LL READ ABOUT TEXAS FOOTBALL ALL WEEK. ONE OUT OF NINE. NOT ONE OUT OF 13-15. IT CHANGES THE ENTIRE PROGRAM.
No. 4 - The High three stars ...
You guys have heard me rave about the high three star prospect for a long time and it's mostly because as a tier, it performs at a level closer to four stars than it does the rest of the three stars.
Typically, between 13-17 percent of all high three star prospects get drafted in each recruiting class.
Typically, less than 5 percent of these prospects end up getting drafted in the first three rounds.
Here are the Texas high three stars.
QB - Roschon Johnson (Sophomore)
WR - Kelvontay Dixon (Freshman)
WR - DeJon Harrison (Freshman)
TE - Jared Wiley (Sophomore)
OT - Jaylen Garth (Freshman)
OG - Logan Parr (Freshman)
OG - Derek Kerstetter (Senior)
OG - Rafiti Ghirmai (Sophomore)
OT - Reese Moore (Sophomore)
OT - Andrej Karic (Freshman)
DE - Moro Ojomo (Sophomore)
DE - Peter Mpagi (Redshirt freshman)
DE - Byron Vaughns (Sophomore)
DT - Daniel Carson (Sophomore)
DT - Ta'Quan Graham (Senior)
LB - Marcus Tillman (Redshirt freshman)
LB - Jaden Hullaby (freshman)
DB - Kobe Boyce (Junior)
DB - Marques Caldwell (Redshirt freshman)
On the surface: With 19 high three-star prospects, the math suggests that the Longhorns should have a couple of NFL-level players among this group and depending on what you think of Graham or Ojomo, the Longhorns might be at that number without counting on the young players in the program. The assumption is typically to overrate the young players and assume that they will eventually become those NFL level players, but a list like this a few years ago would reveal that a player like Kerstetter is the best player from this group and he's a borderline draftable player based on his first three seasons. There's not a single star in an entire bunch of 19.
What needs to happen for Texas: A few guys from this tier have to emerge as soon as possible into difference makers. Texas cannot be great with a quarter of its roster being limited contributors almost across the board. Some of these young players must develop at rates exceeding the national average in order to help compensate for what the older players aren't providing.
No. 5 - The rest of the roster ...
Things to know about mid- to low-three star prospects...
Typically, between 4-7 percent of the players in these groups will be drafted.
Typically, only between 1-3 percent of the players in these tiers will be drafted in the first three rounds.
Here are the Texas mid and low- three stars
Mid-Three stars
RB - Daniel Young
TE - Cade Brewer
OT - Christian Jones
OT - Sam Cosmi
DT - T'Vondre Sweat
DB - Jahdae Barron
DB - Chris Brown
Low-three stars
OG - Tope Imade
OT - Willie Tyler
DE - Jaylan Ford
DT - Sawyer Goram-Welch
LB - Juwan Mitchell
On the surface: Sam Cosmi is the lottery winner as the 1-3 percent example that beats the odds and becomes a true difference maker. With 12 players from this specific tier in the program, the Longhorns are actually doing better than the national averages would suggest they should be, especially if you believe Brown and Brewer are plus-players.
What needs to happen for Texas: If you're going to have 12 mid- and low-three stars in the program, keep doing whatever they are doing with this tier every year ... and start doing with the four stars what you're doing with the current mid- and low- three stars.
No. 7 - Just for the record ...
Just for a little clarity about some of the insane nitpicking we do when a kid commits to a school, I wanted to point out what the math suggests to us about new Texas defensive end commit Jordan Thomas.
There's a slight disagreement in the recruiting industry about whether he's a low four star type of prospect or a high three-star prospect.
No matter where you stand on the matter, it's basically the difference between there being a three percent chance of being a first-round pick and a one percent chance. Or the difference between there being an 80-percent failure rate and an 85-percent failure rate.
Almost any discussion that doesn't involve national top 60-75 players is likely overplayed, misunderstood and lacking the bigger picture when it comes to the needs of a program aspiring to compete at national levels.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Buy) I tend to think a program like the Longhorns can auto-pilot to a top-10 class each year or at least in the very close neighborhood. It's getting inside the top five that consistently that changes programs.
(Sell) The NCAA is like a cockroach. It'll survive nuclear war.
(Sell) I think Shaka makes it to the Moody Center.
(Sell) Sorry, but I don't believe that.
(Buy) In an imperfect world, I think college football might have to do without the West Coast this fall. I think there's a better chance that the Longhorns have a season and the Pac-12 doesn't than the chances that both conferences have seasons.
(Buy) I just don't know high we're setting the bar here.
(Sell) That's a huge leap of faith.
(Sell) Man, you guys put a lot of pressure on quarterbacks to be perfect.
(Buy) What the hell.
(Sell) Sorry, kids.
(Sell) Speaking of "Sorry kids."
There is no other candidate worthy of consideration. Don't @ me.
No. 8 - Scattershooting ...
... Jerry must think the Cowboys have a real run in them if he's willing to spend money on the backup quarterback position like he's done with the addition of Andy Dalton. The problem with Dalton isn't that he's not good. The problem with Dalton is there very little upside in an NFL team investing any currency on a 32-year-old quarterback that might be a top 25 quarterback in the world. In the world of back-ups, having a top 25-level quarterback in the world is a hell of a security blanket. Andy Dalton can't lead a team to a deep run in the playoffs, but in a pinch he could probably help a team get to the cusp of such a thing while waiting for the starter to get healthy.
... The NFL isn't slowing down for the coronavirus ... period. Even if the California teams have to play in Oklahoma City or somewhere this season.
... I miss the Draft.
... Rest in peace, Don Shula. He never lived to see another NFL team run the table on a perfect season. There's something poetic about it.
... I'm ready to be done with this column so I can get to the MJ documentary that I missed last night.
... Same with Westworld.
... Cross your fingers that soccer makes it because they'll be the first team sports across the globe that give this playing with the coronavirus thing a chance. Nothing will shut down sports in the fall faster than sports being shut down in the summer in whatever capacities they try to operate in.
... I'm watching UFC 249 this weekend. I can't help it. I need a fix.
No. 9 - The List: Most influential albums of my life ...
I got one of those Facebook challenges last week from a friend, daring me to name an album a day over 10 days that most influenced my musical soul over my entire lifetime and it sounded like a great Top 10 list idea.
So, here in no specific order is my list.
"Bella Donna" by Stevie Nicks
"Grace" by Jeff Buckley
"Hey" by Toni Price
"Otis Redding Sings Soul" by Otis Redding
"Purple Rain" by Price
"Southernplayalisticadillacmuzik" by Outkast
"Straight Outta Compton" by NWA
"The Diary" by Scarface
"Their Greatest Hits" by The Eagles
"Thriller" by Michael Jackson
No.10 - And finally...
10 more days and the wire will come out of my mouth. FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, PLEASE GIVE ME SOME FOOD!
