Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (The 2022 Super Blue Chip Rankings)
- Thread starter Ketchum
- Start date
My point is that there's even fewer schools with real chances to win championships based on the amount of super blues that exist on each roster.
His data says that Texas deserves to be discussed in the same sentence with schools that it does not.
No no no. You did TPM dirty. Last Jedi at 5!? Did you even watch the entire middle hour of that movie!? Rise of Skywalker is far more enjoyable@MB-HORNS - It's time to add another item to the triggered list.
Just a few days ago, I was surfing Twitter when I came across a graphic that weirdly put me on tilt - the 247 Blue-Chip Ratio List.
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Full transparency - I don't know Bud Elliott of 247. I've seen his work and as far as I'm concerned, he's perfectly sound. Whatever I'm about to type has nothing to do with him and everything to do with the reality that I'm a certifiable maniac.
I started to peek inside of the numbers and I was horrified that five stars and four stars were being counted as equals. My skin started to break out into hives! When you consider that five stars are 10 times more likely to be selected in the first round of the NFL Draft than a run of the mill four star, I could feel my blood pressure rising.
HOW HAVE I TURNED INTO THIS PERSON, I ASKED MYSELF?
It didn't take long before I began to wonder what a "Super Blue Chip Ratio" might look like? How different of a story would it tell? My biggest instinctive reservation centered around the notion that the Texas, Texas A&M and Oklahoma rosters were so closely bunched together in the 68-71% range in this particular data and were within 9-12% at most within the likes of Georgia and Ohio State.
Therefore, I decided that I would create my own Super Blue Chip Ratio, which would focus on only the top two tiers in the recruiting rankings, while also providing a percentage of a team's overall roster that is comprised of elite-level recruits (only 5 stars and high four-star prospects).
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Total Super Blue Chips Through Classic Recruiting
This is real simple. I added up all of the 5 stars and high 4 stars in the Rivals rankings from 2019-2022 (the last four-year cycle). A few things that stand out from the numbers ...
1. Only nine schools signed 10+ super blue chip recruits in the last four years of recruiting. Only 4 schools have signed 20+.
2. Texas A&M has signed 2.5X as many super blues in the last four years as Texas.
3. Alabama has signed more than 10X as many super blues (34) in the last four years than in-state rival (Auburn).
Total Super Blue Chips Through Classic Recruiting (Post-Attrition)
One of the things that I felt really needed to be done when compiling the data was making sure that all attrition from the last four years involving super blue chip recruits was accounted for.
Therefore, I checked the roster status of every super blue chip from the last four years to make sure that they were still on the roster going into this season. Any player that is now in the NFL or transferred to another school or just disappeared from civilization was removed from the total number of super blue chips for each school.
A few things that stood out.
1. A large portion of the 2019 numbers end up being eliminated because of NFL departures and the transfer portal. Few schools were able to escape a sizable portion of total super blue chips being recruited through high schools and junior colleges.
2. That includes Texas, which lost 33% of its super blues through attrition (2019 Bru McCoy, 2019 Jake Smith and 2019 Tyler Owens).
3. The departure of Lincoln Riley pushed Oklahoma into a position of having lost 54.6% of its signed super blue chips from the last four recruiting cycles.
Total Super Blue Chips (Including Impact Transfer Additions)
Finally, you simply can't ignore transfers, which is something that the 247 Blue Chip Ratio did.
Every school that pulled in a Super Blue Chip transfer from the 2019-2022 cycle was credited with an additional super blue chip player to its roster (such as Quinn Ewers for Texas). Meanwhile, I also counted every incoming transfer from the last two years that rated as a Top 45 prospect in TheAthletic.com's Transfer rankings list (such as Isaiah Neyor for Texas or Ochaun Mathis to Nebraska). Until Rivals is able to produce its own transfer rankings, I'll have to outsource the numbers for the super blue chip transfers. Yes, I hated to do it, but we just can't ignore the transfer market when we look at these numbers.
A total of 20 players from TheAthletic.com's Transfer rankings were added to the total number of blue-chip transfers, in addition to the 5-star and high 4-star transfers that were grandfathered as super blue chips based on their previous rankings (see Ewers). The only player that wasn't on the list that I counted as super blue chips was Alabama transfer Jahmyr Gibbs, who had committed to Alabama before he could qualify for TheAthletic's rankings.
It leaves us with our final set of numbers, including each team's super blue chip roster percentage.
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Biggest takeaways
It's hard not to acknowledge that Alabama is just on another planet when compared to the rest of the country. The Tide has twice as many super blue chip prospects on its roster than all but five schools in the entire country.
Also, it's not an accident that the last eight college football championship winners (and 10 of the last 11) represent five of the top six spots on the list. The only non-national championship winner from the last decade on the list is Texas A&M, which ranks fourth in the nation with a 22.4% super blue chip ratio, which is basically double that of the Longhorns (11.8%)
What's interesting to note about the Aggies and Longhorns is that the latter has significantly used the transfer portal to climb its way to double figures in super blue chips, while the former hasn't used the transfer portal at all. Without the portal, the Longhorns would have nearly four times fewer super blue chips on its 2022 roster than the Aggies.
The best news for the Longhorns is that while Texas is expected to lose two super blue chips after the 2022 season (Bijan Robinson and Jordan Whittington), it will likely receive a big bump from the 2023 recruiting class and could push LSU and Clemson for a spot in the top 5 by the time the 2023 season arrives, with the Longhorns sitting on four super blue chip commits and a number of others potentially on the way.
No. 2 - Bertier and Julius would approve...
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A few days later, the thing that still stands out the most from the Big 12 Media Days as it relates to the burnt orange contingent that was on hand is the accountability that Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian displayed when reflecting on last season's 5-7 disaster.
"I didn't think I did a great job a year ago of developing the team and the quality of team and the bond on our team as well as I would have liked," Sarkisian said.
Man, that's a mouthful of self-inventory.
Yet, if you want players to be accountable, you have to learn as a coach to be just as accountable.
This was Sarkisian saying he just wasn't good enough in his freshman campaign as head coach at Texas. Period. The only person he drove the bus over was himself and if I'm a player in that locker room, I would absolutely appreciate the amount of accountability he's displayed here.
No. 3 - I love Jordan Whittington ...
Seriously, I really do. He's just my type of guy from any interaction that I've ever personally had or seen him have with another person.
He's nice. He's engaging. He's respectful. He listens to Teddy Pendergrass. He's also very much an open book with his feelings.
It was around this time last year when we did one of our first videos with Whittington when he transparently mentioned that earlier in his Texas career he had battled depression while trying to recover from the injuries that really plagued him in his first couple of seasons.
Therefore, I was really pleased to hear his reaction to @Serenity Douglas' question about his current mental place.
"It’s been amazing," Whittington exclusively told Orangebloods. "I’ve just been happy every day. I haven’t had a lot of negative stuff in my life. Once you train your mind into thinking that happiness is a decision then it’s pretty easy to stay happy. I’m excited, I’m just more motivated to win, like it’s kind of more of my goal is just to win the Big 12 and go to the playoffs, do all these things so that’s kind of how I’m looking at it."
When asked what advice he'd give others about the topic, he was incredibly thoughtful.
“Acknowledging the good and the bad, that’s the main things you should do," Whittington said. "You always have to acknowledge the bad. That’s where people mess up, when one bad thing happens they never see the blessing they have in life. So always be grateful for where you are because there’s so many people that would love to be where you are.”
Happy mental health is a complicated and complex discussion for a lot of people and everyone's process to reaching a good place is different in their own nuanced ways, but consider me incredibly pleased that Whittington continues to be in a place that's good for him. It was probably the only part of an interview full of interesting little nuggets that I really cared about. This season should be one of the times of his life and he seems to be in a place mentally when he's going to be able to truly enjoy it.
Stay gold, Jordan.
Meanwhile, here were a few other notable moments from the conversation with Serenity involving football stuff that stood out.
Settle the debate … who’s the fastest on the team?
JW: "I’m going to be honest with you, yes it’s me. I’m the fastest. Xavier Worthy is up there with me, Isaiah Neyor, and Brenen Thompson … it’s all the receivers."
Full breakdown of the wide receiver room … who’s looking good, who needs improvement?
"I would say everybody needs improvement in the room because we all have things to work on. As far as who looks good, Xavier looks really good … very hard work, we’re very attentive to details and he’s grinding like he didn’t have the year that he had. Xavier is really fast, explosive and quick. Isaiah Neyor, who is really fast, but he’s so long so you can’t tell that he’s fast. They’re long deep threats, red zone threat (as) a weapon. Agiye Hall who is another guy that’s super fast, deep threat, he can run past you and he’s got great feet. You have Brenen (Thompson), track fast. Then we have Tarique (Milton) from Iowa State, another guy that’s in the slot with me. Troy Omeire is coming back, y'all know how dangerous he is when he's healthy. All in all, the whole room is good, we have a long way to go but we’re making significant progress.”
Explaining the different quarterback styles on the team
"Quinn is just a cool laid back dude on the field, as far as throwing talent he can throw the ball to little spots and just hit it. You know right in the perfect spot, he’s really good on the run. Hudson is really good mobile wise. A lot of people don’t think he’s fast but if you look at the numbers, he’s fast. He’s good on deep throws and both of them are really focused on hitting those deep throws, because with different receivers you have to throw it differently. Maalik was hurt coming out of high school so he hasn’t been able to showcase his talents as much. He’s tall so he’s way over the line looking and you can just see his long neck. He’ll confuse me sometimes because he won’t be looking at me but he’ll throw the ball right on the dot."
For more from Whittington's conversation with Serenity, including his thoughts on the defensive back room, visit the OB YouTube page. Subscribe to the page. It's free!
No. 4 - This and That (recruiting thoughts) ...
... It's perfectly fine to ask questions of Arch Manning as a prospect, but it's a little curious that some people have only wanted to ask those questions after he's committed to a non-SEC school. At this point, it feels less like curiosity and more like folks are being judgmental.
... As far as the "Manning Effect" in recruiting is concerned, I think he's going to need to be a candidate for Rivals Recruiter of the Year if the Longhorns land Jalen Hale because I'm fairly convinced the second thing doesn't happen without the first.
... Sounds like Arlington Martin cornerback Javien Toviano performed slightly better than South Oak Cliff cornerback Malik Muhammad at the Future 50 event this weekend. When it comes to each player's national ranking, the weekend might prove to be the data point that separates them when the dust settles.
... Speaking of Toviano, it sounds like based on the things he was saying over the weekend that he's going to leave an official visit in the fall for either Texas or Texas A&M, along with visits to Ohio State, Oregon and LSU. It won't be impossible to land him without an official visit, but it would be historically unlikely. Keep an eye on the jostling for that final visit. It'll be interesting to see if the uncertainty with Oregon's long-term future makes their placement for an official visit in the fall vulnerable as we get closer to that timeframe.
No. 5 - A recruiting rankings bump for a future Longhorn ...
It was hard to navigate social media this weekend without coming across a video clip of 2023 Longview wide receiver Jalen Hale, who dominated at the Future 50 event that was held at the IMG Academy in Bradenton, Florida.
Currently slotted at No. 75 in the nation in the Rivals100, Hale was the co-top performer of his position group, along with five-star USC commit Zachariah Branch.
Here's what Rivals analyst Nick Harris said of Hale's performance: "Jalen Hale doesn't get many opportunities to showcase his talents during the offseason due to a busy track schedule and a rule against club 7-on-7 play at his high school, but the East Texas product took advantage of the opportunity this weekend and shined among a stacked group of receivers. His three touchdown grabs in the night 7-on-7 session showed his ability to create separation, with his second score being a result of strong improvisation skills after a play had developed. Coming out of the weekend, Hale is one of the bigger stock-ups."
Considering there's not much room to go up from No. 75 in the country, I'm curious to see just how close to five-star status he gets in the next Rivals rankings update.
No. 6 - Orangebloods Message Board Recruiting Discussion...
A few days ago in a conversation on Orangebloods about Texas linebacker target Derion Gullete, who ranks No. 86 right now on the Rivals100, @cooleyo wrote the following:
"This is definitely one I hope Rivals is right about. Composite has him at 143 nationally, 247 has him at 248 nationally."
In response, I pointed out to him that "85 is basically the same as 248."
At that point, @UTJRod7 wrote, "Given that you said you found roughly a 70 to the average line you found, when you account for variance, eh, that may or may not be true."
It was a fair point that I don't really disagree with, but it got me to wondering how different the results of the last two decades have been with both spots in the rankings. The two numbers were mostly arbitrary other than one was in the area just outside of the 70ish number I always tout and the other is one of the last numbers in the Rivals250.
So, I looked it up.
Here are the prospects from 2006-present that have been rated No. 85 in the Rivals250 who have completed their eligibility.
2006 - Dorin Dickerson - Ath - Pitt (Drafted in the 7th round)
2007 - Raymond Carter - RB - UCLA
2008 - Toby Jackson - DE - Georgia
2009 - David Barrent - OT - Michigan State
2010 - Louis Nix - DT - Notre Dame (Drafted in the Third Round)
2011- Justice Hayes - RB - Michigan
2012 - Yuri Wright - CB - Colorado
2013 - Damore'ea Stringfellow - WR - Washington
2014 - Jerrod Heard - QB - Texas
2015 - D'Andre Walker - DE - Georgia (Drafted in the 5th round)
2016 - Damian Alloway - WR - UCLA
2017 - Keytaon Thompson - QB - Miss State
2018 - Ricky Person - RB - NC State
3 out of 14 ended up being good enough to be drafted.
21.4%
Here are the prospects from 2006-present that have been rated No. 248 in the Rivals250 who have completed their eligibility.
2006 - Darel Scott - Ath - Maryland (Drafted in the 7th round)
2007 - C.J. Peake - S - Louisville
2008 - James Hanna - TE - Oklahoma (Drafted in the 6th round)
2009 - Jeremy Smith - RB - Oklahoma State
2010 - Bryan Jones - DT - Arkansas
2011- Mo Latu - OL - Arizona State
2012 - Win Homer - OL - Boston College
2013 - Connor Mitch - QB - South Carolina
2014 - Saeed Blacknall - WR - Penn State
2015 - Trevor Elbert - OL - Texas A&M
2016 - Mike Panasiuk - DT - Michigan State
2019 - Maurice Hampton - RB - LSU
2 out of 12 ended up being good enough to be drafted.
16.7%
Long story, short ... yeah ... there's very little difference.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) No, I don't believe the talent is on par with the talent Patterson's best teams had. It has s single all-conference player, who didn't have a very impactful season a year ago. The pass rush is wildly unproven at best. The interior linebacker player is a question mark. I'm not sure if there's a single first- or second-day pick in the starting line-up. True freshman Terrance Brooks is the only super blue chip player on that entire side of the ball, regardless of classification. The 2008 TCU defense that was one of the best in the country featured five NFL Draft picks, including future first-round selection Jerry Hughes, who recorded 15 sacks off the edge.
Development matters significantly, especially if you don't have super blue chip players all over the field (like the Texas offense). Until the Longhorns start to develop a lot better, we can't put the current defense in the same sentence with a number of defenses he had at TCU.
(Sell) I don't think it's a big deal. It's certainly not going to make or break Hill's recruitment.
(Buy) If he tests very well at the combine/pro day workouts, it's not insane to believe he could land in that kind of territory.
(Buy) That's very much in the realm of possibilities.
(Sell) I still project A&M to likely land Toviano and I have a couple of questions about the recruitments of Pilot/Deal, but the rest of that list is likely to very doable.
(Sell) I don't think we'll see three freshmen OL starters this season, barring injuries. That just feels like too many. It would also mean failed development by Flood with a number of older players that he has had two years to work with.
(Sell) He's going to have a hard time turning down what becomes available in the 2023 off-season. They'd have taken 10 this season if possible and while the numbers might be really tight, it's hard for me to believe that they'll be inactive to the point of flat out cooling down. It will be a mistake from my perspective if it happens. Frankly, where would this team be without the Portal?
(Sell) I don't think it'll ever be crystal clear. I would imagine his workload will be similar to Keilan Robinson's.
(Buy) There could be nine on the offensive side of the ball, so yeah, give me 12+ in total.
(Sell) No, I would not.
(Buy) You can start to feel it coming.
(Buy/Sell/Buy) The only thing I disagree with is Stewart, who I think will have an excellent A&M career.
(Buy) Last season was just the beginning. He's better a year later.
(Sell) It's still so surreal that I live in denial.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the sports weekend ...
... I often find myself rooting against Cam Smith for reasons that I can't completely explain over his mullet, but there's no way to get around the fact that he's beyond sensational with a putter in his hands, has been on a hell of a 2022 run and deserved to win the 2022 British Open after finishing with a ridiculous final round score of 64. The fact that he pulled that 64 out of his bag when everyone was rooting for a more well-known golfer to seize a little bit of glory might just make me forget about the mullet in future years.
.... Rory McElroy's winless streak at the majors is 8+ years and counting going into the 2023 season. Meanwhile, Jordan Spieth is going on 5+ years since his last major win at The Open back in 2017. Winning majors ain't easy, folks.
... It's a hell of a thing when your first job in coaching is the home of your old high school rival. Good luck, Tyrone!
... This will be a "got'em" that he'll tell the grandkids about.
... I think I'm going to take in the MLB all-star game this week. What the hell?
... Kind of feels like Austin FC dropped two points it shouldn't have on Saturday night instead of gaining a good point on the road. Catching FC Dallas on two days rest in 96+ degree heat should have led to three points, and yes, I'm aware of the sudden high standards.
... The Nets are just going to have KD and Kyrie report to camp like nothing has happened ... lulz.
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Star Wars/TV Shows ...
Full transparency ... I wasn't able to knock out a full re-watch of the series over the course of the last few weeks like I had hoped to before making the rankings.
Also, I tried watching The Clone Wars a while back and just couldn't get into it, which made it ineligible for this list. I'm not saying it's trash, I'm just saying I couldn't get into the animation.
Ok, let's get on with the list
10. Obi-Wan Kenobi
Attack of the Clones, Rise of Skywalker and Solo will just have to sit the hell on in the back of the room without a spot at the big table. Although if I'm being honest, I'm not sure that anyone wants to stand on a table for any of them. Something had to be No. 10. However, I'll stand on the table for the Vadar/Obi-wan battle at the end of this series.
9. The Phantom Menace
I feel a little guilty for slotting this all the way in the back of the list, but for all of the reasons that I'll defend the movie, there's a lot that remains unavoidable.
8. The Mandalorian
Specifically, I'm thinking of season two, which is easily the best TV show of the Star Wars universe, up until now.
7. Revenge of the Sith
For me, this chapter has aged pretty well and the final battle scene between Obi-wan and Annakin is among the best moments in anything the series has ever done. Never mess with Obi-wan when he has the high ground ... or you'll learn the hard way.
6. The Force Awakens
An underrated chapter of the story, I love the introduction of the new characters. Plus, Kylo Ren does his pops so dirty.
5. The Last Jedi
Too high? Or not high enough? I love my Star Wars when it dares to go outside of tried and true storytelling. The fact that The Rise of Skywalker tried to render this chapter of the story as moot is a little like killing Obi-wan. It only made it stronger. Luke's last stand was dope. Every inch of the Rey-Kylo Ren storyline was interesting to me, even if the long-term payoff in episode 9 is uneven to say the least.
4. Return of the Jedi
Full disclosure ... I liked the Ewoks when I was eight and I still like them at 46.
3. A New Hope
It's proven to be a perfect aid for bouts of insomnia because of its pace, but it's a classic and at its very best, it's still full of excellence.
2. Rogue 1
Pound for pound, it might be No.1
1. The Empire Strikes Back
Still the champ.
No. 10 - And Finally ...
This got me all into my feelings this weekend.
If the last jedi is the one with Laura Dern then yes, it’s maybe the worst one they did as in 9/9.
I have blocked it from my memory though. Is it the one with the Casino? So painfully dumb
@Ketchum Great read…love the effort proving out data points/results!
The mullet is gone now that he won a major! That was his public comment earlier in the year….he was not cutting until he won a major! It’s also the first time in two years I didn’t select him on one of my drafts (major miss). 17days and counting for Fall Camp! Hook’em
The mullet is gone now that he won a major! That was his public comment earlier in the year….he was not cutting until he won a major! It’s also the first time in two years I didn’t select him on one of my drafts (major miss). 17days and counting for Fall Camp! Hook’em
Thank you so much for sharing the Mama-baby Elephant rescue! Got me all choked up, but made my day to see the very best of humanity in full display. The love & passion for those sentient beings was truly awesome and inspirational!
I feel likes it's natural and reasonable to expect that GP is consulting with PK on the defense, and I hope it is happening on a daily basis. However, every time I've heard/read a Sark answer on how it is having GP on the staff, I hear about how GP's consulting is on the offense (I imagine from the point of view of how defenses will react to things on the offense or how to confuse/misdirect a defense) and making the offense better. I could understand downplaying any GP consultation with PK in order not to appear to lack confidence in your sitting DC, but has there been any public acknowledgement that GP is, in fact, consulting on PK's defense? It could very well be out there and I have just missed it or ignored it.
revenge of the sith too low, last Jedi way too high. Other than that agree with just about everything. I’d swap New hope and rogue one. The fact the death star existed as the premise of rogue ones movie was because of a new hope so it’s hard to slot it above it for me. but it is my 4th overall so love the love you gave it
Great issue of TTFTW!
I love the stuff about JWhit. We all have our favorite players and love watching them perform, but this is the sort of inside baseball that most of us don't have access to.
Also, I'd love to hear some more follow up stories on guys like Swoops. It's great to hear how the guys we were such fans of are doing a few years down the road.
Lastly, I love a good elephant story. Who doesn't have a soft spot for those gentle giants?
I love the stuff about JWhit. We all have our favorite players and love watching them perform, but this is the sort of inside baseball that most of us don't have access to.
Also, I'd love to hear some more follow up stories on guys like Swoops. It's great to hear how the guys we were such fans of are doing a few years down the road.
Lastly, I love a good elephant story. Who doesn't have a soft spot for those gentle giants?
With regards to the follow-up stories, it usually just comes down to time. We'd like to do more, but we juggle a lot on the daily. But, it IS a good idea.
To really simplify the take away, yeah there are no coincidences about why those teams won all the championships. There’s a lot of numbers and digging around going on, but this really isn’t rocket science once you see it all.
Ketch and others went to say TLJ was a good Kylo and Rey story. Much of it is. But they ignore that 40% of the film is a nonsense B plot
Also, and even though I like Kylo in the movie, it really shows through how there was no directive from the studio about where to take this character. He doubles down at the end wanting to destroy the bunker and kill his own mom. Why? Earlier in the movie it was said killing his dad tore him apart and he hesitated to kill Leia. So what was the point of his turn into tyrannical evil at the end of the movie?
The only thing that people should have taken away from that is the gulf between the top and the rest.
Yup. At the end of the day, you're trying to understand what wins championships. it's all there, simply.
No. 2 - Bertier and Julius would approve...
Julius would have never become great without Bertier getting up in his face at practice and basically calling him lazy. Bertier was a real leader. He had what it took to kick his best friend off the team, because it was good for the team but probably ended their friendship.
Julius would have never become great without Bertier getting up in his face at practice and basically calling him lazy. Bertier was a real leader. He had what it took to kick his best friend off the team, because it was good for the team but probably ended their friendship.
Except it didn't end their friendship.
Julius calling Bertier out for his bullshit is what started the friendship.
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This is not the first time aggy has seen it all snatched away- Latest: HornNation101
